Wednesday's Starting Lineup

Good Wednesday morning. Yesterday, we reported the WH offered ex-Sen. Mel Martinez (R-FL) a blank check for his vote on the stimulus measure. We've heard of the Nebraska Compromise, or the Cornhusker Kickback, or the Louisiana Purchase. What's a good name for this one? House Race Hotline's Tim Sahd suggested "Gator Bait." GOP strategist Chris Taylor went with the "Miami Price." Have a better suggestion? Email us.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, offering a sneak peak at the people who will make headlines today:

JIM MESSINA: The deputy WH CoS, a longtime DC and campaign operative who has remained under the radar for much of his career, is the early favorite to run Pres. Obama's re-elect campaign. The campaign is likely to be run out of Chicago, rather than the Beltway, and key players are already beginning discussions about how the massive effort to get Obama another 4 years in office.

The news, first reported by Politico and confirmed to Hotline OnCall, shows the WH is gearing up early for what could be a difficult fight. Key players will include ex-WH communications director Anita Dunn, DNC communications director Brad Woodhouse, WH political director Patrick Gaspard, DNC executive director Jennifer O'Malley Dillon and top officials at OFA, Obama's political wing that operates out of the DNC.

GOPers have already started their WH'12 bids -- just look to last weekend's CPAC meeting and overt moves by ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney, MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty and even ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin for evidence of that. And despite their optimism over Obama's poll numbers, which get uglier every day among independent voters, remember both the past and the future: Ronald Reagan and Bill Clinton had miserable first years in office, but both won re-election. And Obama's donor list and personal popularity mean he will have the financial resources necessary to swamp the competition. It may not be a pretty re-elect, but Obama's team is laying the early foundation already.

DSCC CHAIR BOB MENENDEZ: Menendez will address reporters at a breakfast sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor today, aiming to show confidence after an inauspicious start to the new year in which he has the unenviable task of defending many vulnerable Dem-held seats. Menendez will be realistic about the challenges Dems face, and he will kick off an offensive aimed at pressuring GOPers to offer ideas rather than just opposition, according to a Dem source.

That job has only gotten harder. Over the last 2 months, Sens. Byron Dorgan (D-ND), Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Evan Bayh (D-IN) have given up their re-elect bids, throwing 2 previously-safe Dem seats into play (though Dodd's move makes the CT seat an easier hold for Dems). Sens. Harry Reid (D-NV) and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) have seen their own political standing sink to lower ebbs. And DE AG Beau Biden's decision not to run for his father's old seat could essentially hand it to Rep. Mike Castle (R).

But Dems aren't completely without targets. The party still has chances to pick up open GOP-held seats in NH, MO, OH and KY, and a divisive FL GOP primary keeps the door open -- but just a crack -- for Rep. Kendrick Meek (D). Add to that the fact that voters see the GOP in a worse light than they do Dems, and that SEN candidates spend enough money to give Dems the opportunity to make the races less about national landscapes than about a choice between 2 candidates and Menendez has at least some reason to be optimistic.

To be sure, over the last several cycles, competitive SEN races have followed an evident pattern: Most seats have broken for one party, with an exception or 2 that stay with the incumbent party (TN in '06, or KY and GA in '08, for example). Given the number of competitive Dem-held seats on the table, Menendez still has his work cut out for him.

Rush Limbaugh: The popular radio host has only seen his audience and his influence over the GOP grow now that the party is out of power. It's one thing to preach to the true believers when George W. Bush is in office, but the ranks of true believers swell significantly when Obama takes over. Limbaugh has won apologies from members of Congress, top WH'12 contenders and even RNC chair Michael Steele when they so much as dream of crossing him, demonstrating not that Rush is the leader of the party, but that any leader needs his blessing before they get anointed.

Now, Limbaugh is turning his guns toward the only 2 GOPers from MA who have made something of themselves in recent years. Romney and Sen. Scott Brown (R) have each committed cardinal sins in Limbaugh's eyes -- Romney by endorsing Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) re-election bid and Brown by voting for a $15B jobs bill -- and he's going to let his Dittoheads know it.

"I had a little hope that it was gonna take a little longer for Scott Brown to succumb to Potomac fever and all this bipartisan talk and so forth, but I tell you, I like Mitt Romney, but I think he's risking his career over a guy, endorsing McCain, who is so out of step with what's going on right now," Limbaugh said on his show yesterday, when he spent a significant portion of time bashing the "meager" "chump change" of a jobs bill.

Romney remains a, if not the, front-runner among GOPers seeking the WH. Brown still has his following among a crowd that sees him as better than any Dem (and a positive op-ed from the Boston Globe, which endorsed his Dem rival, to boot). But Rush isn't going to make GOPers' lives easy, even as the party faces such a great national wind at their backs.