March 2010

MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) defied recommendations made to him by advisers twice in the last 6 years about working to install individual mandates for health insurance coverage -- and in doing so may have stockpiled some points he can use to score with the GOP base.

The likely '12 WH contender has been avidly opposed to the health care legislation signed into law by Pres. Obama last week and maintains that it should be repealed. He has kept up a harsh critique of individual mandates - a piece of the issue that separates him from likely '12 WH GOP rival/ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney.

Pawlenty appointed ex-Sen. David Durenberger (R) to chair the Citizens Forum on Health Care Costs in '03 largely to advise him on cost containment. Later, Pawlenty empaneled a Health Cabinet. In the report Durenberger and his team issued to Pawlenty on Feb. 23, '04, he noted that the state's uninsured rate of 5.4% was among the nation's lowest, and that state residents understood the need for buy-in.

With that framework, the fifth general recommendation reads: "Assure Universal Participation In The Health Care System." A few of the points within the recommendation were: "Set a goal of 'universal participation' in the health care system, which is broader than just universal access or coverage," and "Require participation in the health care system by uninsured Minnesotans who can afford to buy health coverage but choose not to."

Again in a report dated Feb. 1, '08, another health care group advising Pawlenty -- the Health Care Transformation Task Force -- suggested that individual mandates be part of the solution.

Cal Ludeman, the commissioner of the MN Department of Human Services, and state Rep. Thomas Huntley (D) co-chaired the commission.

The task force made the following recommendation: "Require that all Minnesotans obtain health coverage by January 1, 2011, unless: No insurance that meets affordability standards is available; and No subsidy is available to make available insurance policies affordable."

Pawlenty has trumpeted his gubernatorial record frequently on the stump as he's been increasing his visibility, including what has been done in the state on health care. While Pawlenty may have bucked his then-advisers' recommendations that he work toward mandates, political adviser Phil Musser emphasized that it simply means the governor has been consistent in his long-standing opposition to mandates.

The majority of schools who will compete in the Final Four this weekend have GOP-heavy fan bases, according to an analysis of the media markets they own.

On the other hand, voters in the Raleigh, Charlotte and Greensboro media markets -- where Duke finds most of its in-state fans -- hand Dems a narrow 2-point advantage. They will face off against the West Virginia Univ. Mountineers, whose Charleston-Huntington market gives the GOP a 27-point party index edge.

In all, the team with the more GOP-leaning fan base won 3 of 4 games in the Elite Eight, the analysis found. Only Michigan State's win over much more conservative Tennessee spoiled the perfect record.

The Final Four aside, GOPers tend to perform better among sports fans than among non-sports fans, as we told you this morning. And those who pay attention to sports actually vote more than those who don't. By breaking down the appropriate markets and the appropriate times of year, it's possible to determine exactly where one's ad dollars will be most effective.

For example, KY Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) and ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) should seriously consider purchasing ad time during the Kentucky Derby, scheduled for May 1. A large portion of high-turnout voters -- nearly 20% -- say they are very interested in the Derby, and they swing strongly toward the GOP.

What's more, well-timed local ads featuring Grayson's or Paul's message would be even more effective during the annual race. Though just 3% of high-turnout voters nationally say they are very interested in horse racing, that percentage spikes in key media markets -- Louisville, Lexington and Charleston, WV, which bleeds into eastern KY, are 3 of the top 4 cities in America in which horse racing aficionados live.

The analysis used polling data from Scarborough USA, a joint project of Nielsen and Arbitron, the 2 top ratings agencies in the country. The data helps TV and radio stations and the country's newspapers set ad rates by evaluating viewership habits. The company provided survey results from a total of 218K interviews between Aug. '08 and Sept. '09.

After the jump, check out our look at the top cities for key sports, as well as an explanation of how GOP-leaning teams won the Elite Eight.

The WH chief of staff and former chair of the DCCC is playing a role in the GOP side of the race to replace Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), as accusations fly that one of the GOP candidates actually helped fund Dems' efforts to retake Congress.

In '06, ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) donated $10K to the DCCC -- money that helped defeat 2 CT GOP members of Congress, including McMahon's current rival, ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R).

Simmons has used the contributions to suggest McMahon is no true conservative, while McMahon has maintained she wrote the checks as a favor to Ari Emanuel, WWE's agent and brother of then-DCCC chair Rahm Emanuel. That year, Simmons lost to now-Rep. Joe Courtney (D) by a margin of just 83 votes, after the DCCC spent hundreds of thousands on Courtney's behalf.

McMahon has maintained her donations to the GOP -- she's given thousands over the years -- are what's important, because she personally believes in the party's aims. She has also claimed she did not know who Emanuel was in '02, a stance that has Simmons' campaign crying foul.

"Mrs. McMahon's claim that she didn't know who Rahm Emanuel was as he stood in her office and collected tens of thousands of dollars to fund the Democratic takeover of Washington, DC is unbelievable," Simmons spokesperson Raj Shah said.

McMahon spokesperson Ed Patru clarified that McMahon didn't know who Rahm Emanuel was in '02, but was aware of his status in '06.

Simmons is "bringing up old stories," Patru said in an interview today, because he's worried that McMahon is "rocketing past him in the polls."

Patru said Simmons is just "concerned about his fundraising numbers." The first quarter filings close today, and observers are eagerly anticipating Simmons' figures, to see if he can raise enough money to keep pace with McMahon's advertising blitz.

McMahon's camp is only accepting $100 per individual contributor, and Patru expects her first quarter donations to be nominal at best.

But that doesn't matter, because McMahon has donated millions of dollars to her campaign so far, and plans to spend much more to get through the primary. A candidate has to get at least 15% of the delegates at the May CT convention to move on to an August primary.

Former FL GOP chair Jim Greer is the subject of a criminal investigation after an audit showed he may have profited from party activity, according to sources with knowledge of the investigation.

A probe into the party's finances, ordered by new party chair John Thrasher, uncovered a relationship between the FL GOP and Victory Strategies LLC, a fundraising firm owned jointly by Greer and ex-party executive director Delmar Johnson. The FL GOP paid the company about $200K in '09, the audit showed.

Those actions could violate state law.

"[D]uring the course of the ongoing internal audit it was discovered that the Republican Party of Florida may have been the victim of illegal criminal activity on the part of one of its vendors, controlled by a senior-level official," Thrasher said in a statement Wednesday. "I immediately notified Attorney General Bill McCollum, who has referred this matter to the proper authorities."

McCollum turned the information over to the state's Department of Law Enforcement. Both McCollum's office and the department said in separate statements they could no longer comment because an investigation is underway.

The financial relationship between the party and Greer's company comes to light a month after Greer formally stepped down from his post. Under pressure from major donors and party elders, Greer announced in early Jan. he would resign in Feb.

Donors had been upset with his stewardship of party finances, and with spending many saw as beneficial to Gov. Charlie Crist (R), Greer's major backer when he became chair. Greer is supporting Crist in the primary against ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), which did not sit well with the state's activist base.

After a series of scandals involving party finances -- involving both Crist, Greer's main benefactor, and Rubio, for his use of party credit cards -- Thrasher said he would order a full audit. Johnson, the former executive director, was paid hundreds of thousands of dollars in bonuses over and above his salary, news reports last month revealed.

But much of Greer's tenure atop the state GOP remains murky. In a report to the party's executive committee, the independent auditor says a lack of documentation, compiled during Greer's tenure, prevents them from adequately assessing the party's finances.

Greer, who hinted at a possible job with Crist after leaving office, is not affiliated with the campaign, a Crist spokeswoman told Hotline OnCall. A message left with a person answering Greer's cell phone was not immediately returned.

Update: Greer atty Gregory Miller responds: "The statements and actions of John Thrasher today against his predecessor, former GOP Chairman Jim Greer, are without merit and the continuation of a political vendetta intended to conceal the actions of others and blame Chairman Greer, a private citizen, for the conduct of elected officials. Mr. Thrasher's accusations are a heavy-handed attempt to avoid the Party's formally documented financial and legal obligation to Mr. Greer, who has not committed any criminal activity and looks forward to cooperating fully with any investigation."

Allegheny Co. Exec. Dan Onorato (D) announced today he raised about $909K in the first quarter and has $6.7M CoH, by far the largest total in the PA GOV Dem primary race.

He put that cash to good use yesterday by releasing the first TV ads of the race. The three biographical spots highlight his experience governing Allegheny Co., which includes Pittsburgh. The spots, which focus on his economic, government reform and job creation records, will air in heavy rotation around the state. A solid week of advertising in PA can cost a campaign more than $1M.

Onorato's primary rivals, Aud. Jack Wagner (D), state Sen. Anthony Williams (D), and '04 SEN nominee/Montgomery Co. Commis./ex-Rep. Joe Hoeffel (D) are all planning on going up on air later in April, in advance of the May 18 primary. AG Tom Corbett (R), who is widely presumed to be the frontrunner for the general election, will start advertising soon as well.

Watch Onorato's 60-second ad, "Proven Experience:"

After the jump, Onorato's second and third ads, "Record of Reform" and "New Economy."

Rapper LL Cool J isn't happy that Fox News is using him to promote ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R), and now they've scrapped his appearance.

The network had planned to use an '08 interview with LL Cool J in the first episode of Palin's "Real American Stories. But the rapper wasn't thrilled.

"Fox lifted an old interview I gave in 2008 to someone else & are misrepresenting to the public in order to promote Sarah Palins Show. WOW," he tweeted last night. In a tweet this morning, he accused Fox of "misrepresenting" his interview to promote Palin's show.

Now, the network is fighting back, and they've cut his interview entirely.

"'Real American Stories' features uplifting tales about overcoming adversity and we believe Mr. Smith's interview fit that criteria," a Fox News spokesperson told Hotline OnCall.

The net isn't taking the perceived slight well: "[A]s it appears that Mr. Smith does not want to be associated with a program that could serve as an inspiration to others, we are cutting his interview from the special and wish him the best with his fledgling acting career," the spokesperson said.

Palin's show, which will air occasionally and feature uplifting stories, is set to debut tomorrow night. Country singer Toby Keith and ex-GE chairman Jack Welch will be featured.

Conventional wisdom holds that the midterm elections will be all about the economy -- especially with unemployment at 9.7% and the country struggles to get out of a recession. But, Hotline editor John Mercurio wonders, what if the '10 elections really hinge on health care?

The new Washington Post poll shows that the percentage of adults who doubt they'll be thinking about health care this fall is down 5 points since January, meaning more people suspect it will be a factor. That small shift is likely due to last week's media coverage of the historic votes and President Obama's bill signings. At the same time, however, the political debate crystallized into the kind of bumper-sticker themes that fit perfectly into national campaigns: Put us back in power, Republicans are saying, and we'll "repeal and replace" the law. "Bring it on," counter newly confident Democrats, who plan to force Republicans to explain specifically which benefits they would undo.

The celerity with which both parties embraced their respective themes suggests they have both learned from past shortcomings -- most recently, Democrats fell short in selling the economic stimulus package, spurring a huge shift towards Republicans.

The health care debate also solidified last week in another way, of course, stirring the kind of white-hot anger that typically fades but still can help parties motivate their bases for the long term. (As several new polls show, health care helped Democrats close the enthusiasm gap with Republicans -- for now, at least). A feisty debate over jobs can achieve the same goal, of course. But unless a clear verdict of Obama's economic record emerges before November, can candidates draw distinctions as effectively?

Some Democrats privately recoil when they ponder a campaign season dominated by health care, citing polls that show their legislative victory hasn't translated into a bounce in Obama's approval ratings. It's become a trend for Obama, who drew little to no bounce after the protracted Democratic primary with Hillary Rodham Clinton in June 2008 or the party's nominating convention that summer.

Read the whole column here.

Ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) will report raising approximately $600K over the last 3 months, according to campaign manager David Adams.

Adams said he's still uncertain what the exact cash on hand figures will look like and stressed several times, "We've spent just about all of it." Figures for the first quarter won't be available until the quarter actually ends, at midnight tonight.

Paul's campaign has already placed ad buys and has purchased all of its mailings yet to drop in advance of the May 18 primary. Adams said Paul's team has operated with a mindset that they need to spend everything they get up until the primary.

By the end of 2009, Paul had raised $1.8M during the cycle, while primary opponent Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) pulled in $1.7M. Paul had spent more than Grayson, $470K to Grayson's $288K, and Grayson had retained about $100K more for his war chest at the end of last quarter. To start the year, Grayson had $1.4M in the bank to Paul's $1.3M.

Grayson likely will have a bigger war chest once the quarter's numbers are finalized, as his campaign has not prepaid for the next 6 weeks of activity in the same way that Paul's has.

Update: "Rand Paul is using millions of dollars raised from out of state to mislead Kentucky voters with ads that disguise his radical views," shot back Nate Hodson, Grayson's manager.

"There isn't enough money in the world to deceive Kentuckians into letting Rand Paul join the family business where he and his dad can spout their extremist views together," Hodson said. "Trey might not benefit from being a member of a Washington political family, but he is proud to be supported by thousands of Kentuckians."

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) didn't even wait for the first quarter to come to a close before he began to set expectations, announcing he had raised $2.2M over the last 3 months.

McCain's campaign has $4.5M in the bank so far. The first quarter ends tonight at midnight, and reports aren't due to the Secretary of the Senate until Apr. 15.

By announcing so early, McCain is putting pressure on ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R), who formally jumped into the race this quarter. Hayworth was a strong fundraiser during his career in Congress; in '06, he raised and spent $3M for his ultimately unsuccessful re-election bid.

Early voting starts at the end of July, meaning Hayworth has just under 4 months to raise money this time around. And even with McCain's unpopularity among some segments of the GOP base, Hayworth has struggled to raise money quickly. A money bomb that was supposed to raise $100K in 24 hours last month fizzled; it took Hayworth's camp 5 days to pull in the money.

Given how pricey TV time is in the markets Hayworth has to hit, he's going to need to raise big bucks in a very short amount of time.

"It's hard to imagine J.D. getting his message out in the Phoenix TV market if he doesn't have at least $2 million to spend on message delivery," one GOP consultant not affiliated with either campaign said.

The consultant estimated that TV time in Phoenix would cost between $300 and $400 per point in advance of the Aug. 24 primary, meaning Hayworth will have to spend at least $1M on that market alone. "Even with that, he is going to be outspent 3 to 1 or 4 to 1," the consultant said.

The Phoenix market reaches about 79% of AZ voters. Hayworth's camp will also have to spend in Tucson, which reaches another 18% of the state. The Yuma and Albuquerque markets each reach much smaller segments of the Copper State.

SEN General Election Matchups
Brunner     38% (+3 from Feb. 21)
Portman     37  (-3)

Fisher      41% (+4)
Portman     37  (-3)

GOV General Election Matchup
Strickland  43% (-1 from Feb. 21)
Kasich      38  (-1)

If you're a GOP strategist looking for key primary votes, spend your valuable advertising money on PGA Tour events. If you're a Dem trying to win over your base, focus on advertising during NBA games.

So says a new study among hundreds of thousands of Americans examining the correlation between viewers' favorite sports and their voting habits. And, the survey shows, most dedicated sports watchers are much more likely to vote with the GOP than they are to vote with Dems.

Researchers at National Media Inc., a GOP firm, analyzed survey results from a total of 218K interviews between Aug. '08 and Sept. '09. The polling was conducted by Scarborough USA, a joint project of Nielsen and Arbitron, the 2 top ratings agencies in the country. The data helps TV and radio stations and the country's newspapers set ad rates by evaluating viewership habits.

Sports fans' voting propensity, and which party they prefer.
Click for a larger image.

GOPers are most likely to watch the PGA Tour, college football and NASCAR, according to the study. But if GOP ad buyers want to reach more frequent voters, they should focus on the PGA; golf fans told researchers they were much more likely to vote than NASCAR fans say they are. Meanwhile, Dems hold the largest advantages among basketball fans, both those who watch the NBA and the WNBA. And fans of World Wrestling Entertainment are also much more likely to favor Dems -- if they vote. Wrestling fans are less likely to cast ballots than any other sports fans.

Overall, GOPers hold advantages among die-hard fans of most sports, albeit by slimmer margins than golf fans. Those who watch Major League Baseball and the NFL are only slightly more conservative than the average voter, while those who watch college basketball are about 5% more likely to vote with the GOP.

Among the major sports, college football fans say they are most likely to vote, followed closely by MLB aficianados. NFL fans rate with NASCAR fans as less likely voters. Fans of extreme sports, the WWE, monster trucks and soccer -- all of whom tend to be younger -- are the least likely to vote, according to the survey.

The data is fun to peruse, but it has practical implications as well. Ad buyers should focus on sports programming, according to the analysis. That's because sports fans are most likely to view events live instead of on a DVR machine, meaning they don't skip the ads.

Dems tend to watch more TV than GOPers, and they dominate most kinds of programming. That means GOP ad buyers have fewer choices, and sports offer the best opportunity to reach their voters.

Then again, not every sport has a devoted following. Fans of minor league baseball are high-propensity swing voters, but there aren't all that many of them. Bull-riding fans are GOPers, but the market is tiny. Dems tend to be bigger fans of men's and women's tennis, but, again, the appetite is limited.

After the jump, the raw data. And check back later today with Hotline OnCall, when we'll tease out more data from National Media's excellent analysis -- including what the makeup of the Final Four could mean for this year's elections.

"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with the severe weather and flooding in the Northeast.

RNC Vice Chairman Ken Blackwell played "Hardball" 3/30 p.m.

Blackwell, on repeated scandals in the RNC being Michael Steele's fault: "It's happening on his watch. In January of 2009, the 168-member Republican National Committee chose Michael Steele to be its chairman for a two-year term. I don't think that anything is going to change in terms of the chairmanship until next January, if it changes at all. As you know, he has some wins under his belt, and there is a real issue of whether or not this is another distraction from what the RNC is in business to do."

More Blackwell: "We have a historic opportunity to win over 50 seats this time around, and we can't blow it because ... our leadership is explaining this sort of nonsense."

Blackwell, on being a replacement for Steele: "No. I am the co-chairman of the RNC's redistricting committee. My job is to work with John Ryder, the chairman, to make sure that we're in a position of keeping the pens that will draw the maps of the congressional district in our party's hands for competitive advantage. Pure and simple. That is a full plate."

After the jump, more on Steele and the RNC.

Good Wednesday morning. Have those last-minute donations in yet? Candidates have until midnight to make their first quarter FEC reports look a little better.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will drive tomorrow's political headlines:

CAMPAIGN ACCOUNTANTS: Don't underestimate just how important those first quarter reports can be. For some candidates, they will signal a resurgence or an arrival in prime time. But the bell will be tolling for others. We're spending our time on the edge of our seats waiting for reports from AR LG Bill Halter (D), who had a quick start and needs a fast pace to catch Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D); ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R), who remains an unproven commodity in his race against Sen. John McCain (R-AZ); and ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), who could solidify his position as the front-runner with a strong quarter against FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R).

On the general election side, watch Reps. John Spratt (D-SC) and Leonard Boswell (D-IA), 2 members who filed for re-election after buzz suggested they would retire. Spratt had a disappointing quarter last time around, and the Budget Committee chair can put some Dem minds at ease with a big first 3 months of the year. Boswell faces tough GOP challengers, who will go through their own primary, and he's been an historically slow fundraiser.

Meanwhile, we're hearing rumors that KY SEN candidates are running low on funds. We'll be watching LG Daniel Mongiardo (D) and AG Jack Conway (D); in advance of the May 18 primary, Conway has the money lead, but Mongiardo has the polling lead. On the other side, how much money does Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) have? His chances of making a dramatic comeback against ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) will depend on how much money he sinks into his message in the race's final 6 weeks.

SEN. KAY BAILEY HUTCHISON: As first reported by Hotline OnCall, Hutchison will announce today she's sticking around to finish out her third full term in office, despite her pledge she would quit after the health care debate was over. Her decision will irritate candidates who have been running for her seat for months, convinced she was about to quit, but it's going to make NRSC chair (and fellow TXan) John Cornyn very happy. Now, the NRSC doesn't have to defend a seat that could have cost them millions, even though they were favored.

KBH's decision will come at a political price, given how up-front she was in her promise to quit. But GOPers have given her plenty of cover; she'll appear with Cornyn and Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell today to make her announcement, which comes a week after House members in her home state publicly urged her to stay. Reminds us of Rep. John Shadegg (R-AZ), who got similar cover in '08 when he reversed his decision to retire.

Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) will announce today she has decided to serve out the remainder of her term, according to a source familiar with Hutchison's plans.

The move is a reversal of a pledge Hutchison made to step down as she challenged Gov. Rick Perry (R) earlier this year. Hutchison lost an early March primary against Perry by a surprisingly wide margin.

Hutchison originally said she would step down sometime last fall, before putting off her resignation thanks to the health care debate. Now that the health care debate is over, House GOPers in TX have urged Hutchison to reconsider in a letter sent to the incumbent last week.

Hutchison's decision means several candidates who hoped to replace her will have to put their plans on hold until her term expires in '12. At least 6 prominent GOPers who anticipated Hutchison's resignation have been running for months.

It also means Dems won't have the chance to pick off a seat because of the state's runoff laws. Earlier this cycle, the party hoped to take advantage of the chaos created by a crowded GOP field; but as Hutchison's resignation looked less likely, ex-Houston Mayor Bill White (D) dropped his SEN bid to mount his own campaign against Perry.

Hutchison will announce her decision to stick around for another 2 years in a press conference in TX today.

Cross-posted from National Journal's Under the Influence blog

Big time donors fretting about RNC chair Michael Steele's troubles are helping fuel early fundraising success for a new 527 group being promoted by GOP uber-strategists Ed Gillespie and Karl Rove.

The duo, capitalizing on upbeat expectations about GOP congressional prospects this year, spent time in TX about a month ago. They visited with several of the state's super rich political donors and came away with a sizeable pledge from Dallas billionaire Harold Simmons, who was a big bundler in '08 for the presidential campaign of Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). The new 527 group, American Crossroads, has been assembled quietly but is expected to play a big role in helping the GOP improve their fortunes in congressional contests this fall.

GOP operatives say that having Gillespie, the former RNC chair, and Rove, the ex-political guru to the George W. Bush admin, pitching donors is a potent combo. "Ed's got the better rap and Karl's got the better rolodex," says a GOP lobbyist familiar with the new venture.

Gillespie has indicated that he won't be formally affiliated with the 527, but acknowledged that he's hitting up contributors for it. "I've supported the idea of a 527," Gillespie told National Journal. "I've encouraged people to support entities like American Crossroads." Rove did not return a phone call seeking comment about his efforts.

So far, the new soft-money group, American Crossroads, has received commitments of almost $30M and is seeking to raise a total of some $60M to help dozens of Senate and House incumbents and challengers this fall, say 3 sources familiar with the new 527. In contrast, at the start of Jan., the Republican National Committee had only $8.4M in the bank compared with the $22.8M it had on had a year earlier when Steele was elected chairman.

Steven J. Law, the general counsel at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce and one time executive director of the NRSC, is expected late next week to take over as president and chief executive officer of the 527. American Crossroads is now assembling a board of directors that's likely to include some big donors and a few GOP luminaries.

The creation of a powerful 527 has come at a politically propitious, but also difficult moment: some key GOP donors and strategists sense big opportunities this year to make sizable congressional gains, but also fret and privately complain that the RNC has been weakened financially under Steele's leadership.

With some big donors opting not to give to the RNC because of concerns about its current management, the need for a new fundraising vehicle to help congressional candidates this year has become a high priority for some GOP operatives. Gillespie is trying to "put something together with big dollars that can compete with labor and Soros," says a source, referring to the Dem billionaire. The RNC is "doing well with internet money but not with major donors," he ruefully added. But with the new 527 "there's a place for major donors to go if they're unhappy."

But other sources stress that the group's genesis goes back prior to the RNC troubles, and was fueled more by long time concerns about the need to better compete with Dem groups such as MoveOn.org.

New polls released this week paint 2 starkly different pictures of an enthusiasm gap between Dem and GOP voters that will be critical to each party's electoral fortunes this fall.

A new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released today shows that, even after Congress passed landmark health care legislation, Dems still lag in their enthusiasm for the '10 midterms.

Fully 55% of voters registered as GOPers describe themselves as "extremely" or "very" enthusiastic about voting for Congress, while just 36% of Dems describe themselves the same way. The CNN poll echoed earlier surveys showing GOPers more energized about '10.

But a Washington Post poll released Sunday -- also conducted after the House cleared the Senate health care bill -- showed no gap in enthusiasm. 41% of both Dem and GOP voters described themselves as "very enthusiastic" about voting in Nov.

The 2 polls aren't entirely analogous. The CNN poll offered 5 choices to respondents -- extremely enthusiastic, very enthusiastic, somewhat enthusiastic, not too enthusiastic and not at all enthusiastic. The WaPo poll offered 4 -- very, fairly, not too enthusiastic and not at all enthusiastic.

The 2 polls also diverge on the generic ballot. GOPers lead among registered voters in the CNN poll, 49-45%; Dems lead the WaPo survey, 48-44%.

One week from the day Pres. Obama signed the first pieces of the health care overhaul into law, it is too early to be sure what effect that legislative achievement will have on this Nov. Will it energize previously listless Dems? Will it further galvanize the GOP? Or will it make little difference on turnout this fall?

The enthusiasm numbers moving forward into the summer will be a key indicator about which party is winning the excitement battle.

The CNN poll surveyed 935 registered voters from Mar. 25-28, with a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. The Post poll surveyed 903 registered voters from Mar. 23-26, with a margin of error of +/- 3.3%.

Tea Partiers are making the next stop of a cross-country trip in UT, one of the most solidly GOP states in the nation, with the goal of ousting Sen. Bob Bennett -- a long-time GOP incumbent.

The Tea Party Express will stop in Provo and Salt Lake City today, the second day the bus tour is in the Beehive State. Organizers said they drew about 2K people to a rally yesterday in St. George, in the southern part of the state.

"We do not support Bennett, and hope he gets replaced by a better candidate," Tea Party Express spokesman Levi Russell told Hotline OnCall. "We've said all along that the problem in Washington is one of both Republicans and Democrats, and Bob Bennett is the epitome of the establishment mentality that has led this country astray," chairman Mark Williams added.

The Tea Party Express is the latest group to oppose Bennett's re-election. Already, the Club for Growth has run ads opposing the 3-term incumbent.

Bennett voted in favor of TARP legislation and for earmarks the conservative Club finds distasteful. He also proposed a health care measure alongside Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) that would have included an individual mandate, something the Club vehemently opposes. Still, Bennett has signed the Club's pledge to vote in favor of repeal of health care reform legislation.

Neither the Tea Party Express nor the Club for Growth has settled on a challenger, though several candidates have tried to demonstrate they are more conservative than the incumbent. Businessman Tim Bridgewater, attorney Mike Lee, businesswoman Cherilyn Eagar (R) and ex-Rep. Merrill Cook (R) are among those running for the seat.

The anti-incumbent mood that has put many Dems at risk is also harming Bennett's chances. Reports out of last week's UT caucuses suggested even GOPers were in an anyone-but-Bennett mood, hinting he could have trouble in the state's May conventions.

The reviews are in, and the consensus is that ex-House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) won the first debate with FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R). The debate, which aired live on "Fox News Sunday" 3/28, lasted 40 minutes and featured sniping from both sides, but in media reports after the fact, Rubio came out the clear winner.

A round-up of the coverage as members of the FL media saw it:

Miami Herald's Lesley Clark and Beth Reinhard say Crist "failed to deliver a broadside powerful enough to level" Rubio. Crist's "challenge was to present himself as an elder statesman," but his "sniping got in the way." Rubio showed "minimal wear and tear."

Orlando Sentinel's Scott Maxwell: "Overall, I think Rubio probably 'won' this debate - partially because of he better played to Fox's conservative audience, but also because he sounded more confident about what he was doing there. There was just something a little odd and unsettling about seeing the senior statesman on the attack. Rubio was in control."

Miami Herald's Marc Caputo wrote in the "Naked Politics" blog that Crist may be running against Rubio, but Rubio is running against Pres. Obama, and that's why Rubio won the debate. "When you're explaining, you're losing" and that's what Crist is doing, he wrote.

In DC, Rubio more clearly won the day.

Politico's Jonathan Martin gave the first debate to Rubio, saying Crist was "put on the defensive more than Rubio," and adding that Rubio used the 40 minutes to "repeatedly" link Crist to Pres. Obama.

One writer, Miami Herald's Michael Putney, gave Crist a "slim win": "Crist did marginally better by dint of experience and a talent for crafting short, pithy answers, even if they sounded rehearsed and sometimes thin." Crist also "looked and sounded relaxed and smiled a lot, even at Rubio."

Meanwhile, a couple thought it was too close to call.

Time's Tim Padgett, who called it a draw, also alluded to the fact that both could lose the election -- to likely Dem nominee Rep. Kendrick Meek -- if they continue to focus heaavily on the right wing of the GOP. Wrote Padgett: "Neither candidate really seemed to win the first debate -- though Crist had more to lose by not winning."

St. Petersburg Times' Alex Leary wrote that the "debate had no clear winner, though Crist came across as strained in his unfamiliar role as attack dog. For his part, Rubio "had his uncomfortable moments and looked inexperienced next to the white-haired Crist. But he clearly worked on appearing calm, even if he hurriedly scribbled notes during Crist's attacks."

Investment banker John Chachas (R) is launching the first 2 ads of his bid to unseat Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, aiming to raise his poll numbers amid a crowded GOP field.

Chachas has promised to dump millions into the race, and he'll need to do so; he rates as little more than an asterisk in recent polls, which show other contenders well ahead of him; the latest Mason-Dixon poll for the Las Vegas Review Journal shows ex-state Sen./ex-NV GOP chair Sue Lowden (R) at 47%; businessman Danny Tarkanian (R) at 29% and Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) at 8%, with Chachas winning just 1% support.

Boosting his name ID isn't going to be Chachas's only political challenge. He has lived in NY for the last 2 decades, and he'll have to convince voters he remembers what it's like back home in NV; Chachas's family has been in the Silver State for years.

Chachas's first ad, "Deep Roots in Nevada," plays up his connection to the state:

His second ad, "Let's Turn The Lights Back On in Nevada," focuses on Chachas's background as a businessman and self-proclaimed finance expert:

Chachas is putting $138K behind the spots, according to a source with knowledge of the NV ad market. That's less than Lowden has spent on her first ads -- she spent $266K, according to a Lowden advisor -- and it's not enough to boost his name ID to the level Chachas needs it.

Because of his personal wealth, Chachas may have the ability to seriously alter the GOP race, but it's going to take more than the small ad buy -- which accounts for 360 gross ratings points in Las Vegas and 840 GRPs in Reno -- to get him there.

Updated: We misstated the amount of money Lowden spent on her ads. This post reflects the correct amount.

Businessman Jim Bender (R) has hired Sen. Scott Brown's (R-MA) former campaign manager to guide his underdog bid against 3 other candidates in the race for an open Granite State SEN seat.

Bender will announce his campaign will be guided by veteran GOP strategist Beth Lindstrom at a press conference today in Nashua, NHPoliticalReport.com's James Pindell reported this morning.

Bender is one of 2 wealthy businessmen in the race to replace retiring Sen. Judd Gregg (R). But where Bill Binnie has already launched ads and seen movement in several polls, Bender has gotten off to a slower start.

Now, Bender's decision to hire the well-respected Lindstrom -- a veteran of ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's (R) admin -- could help him become relevant in the race. The 2 businessmen will face ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R), a favorite of the DC establishment, and '96 GOV nominee Ovide Lamontagne (R), who is making a strong play for the right side of the GOP electorate.

Lindstrom's decision to come aboard, we should note, does not mean Bender is getting Brown's full team. GOP strategist Eric Fehrnstrom, a principle at The Shawmut Group and Brown's senior advisor during the campaign, told Hotline OnCall his team -- made up exclusively of Romney campaign veterans -- is not involved in Bender's race.

Watch for the comparisons to Brown to continue. Binnie has spent part of his campaign treasury defending Brown in TV ads (that just coincidentally happened to run in NH homes too). Ayotte and Lamontagne made calls and recruited volunteers for Brown in the run-up to his surprise election.

Bender's addition means all 4 top candidates have recruited well-known and well-respected operatives to run their races. Binnie's campaign is being run by Bryan Lanza, who aided Steve Forbes's NH campaign; Ayotte hired Brooks Kochvar, who ran ex-Sen. Gordon Smith's (R-OR) race in '08; and Lamontagne brought Will Wrobleski, a former aide to ex-Sen. John E. Sununu (R-NH) and a former director of the anti-tax STEWARD group, aboard last week.

The RNC has fired the director of its young donors program after she approved an expense for a risque L.A. nightclub, multiple sources tell Hotline OnCall.

Allison Meyers, director of the RNC's "Young Eagles" program, was terminated yesterday after reports that the RNC reimbursed a donor for a nearly $2K expense at the Voyeur nightclub in West Hollywood.

A CA GOP consultant, Erik Brown, was reimbursed for the expense after a Young Eagles event in Beverly Hills. A CA blog reported that an RNC staffer's credit card was declined at the club, so Brown grudgingly put the expense on his own card.

RNC spokesman Doug Heye refused to discuss any individual staffers, or to confirm that Meyers was fired.

But several sources said Meyers both organized the Jan. 31 fundraiser at the Beverly Hills Hilton and attended the after-party at the nightclub. The fundraiser was held for the group of donors Meyers was responsible for, a group that solicits contributions from donors under 45 years old.

In an email to RNC staffers sent yesterday and obtained by Hotline OnCall, RNC executive director Ken McKay told his employees the committee had fired the staffer responsible following an internal investigation.

"Our investigation has determined that following a Young Eagles event in Los Angeles, a group of individuals did attend such a club on their own. This was not an RNC sanctioned event and was not associated in any way with any RNC official event," McKay wrote. "Subsequently, a request for reimbursement to the private individual was submitted by a RNC staff person. That person was aware that this activity was not eligible for reimbursement and had been previously counseled on this very subject. Accordingly, that staff person has been terminated."

McKay did not mention Meyers' name. At the time the event was taking place, Steele was on a plane from HI, returning home after the RNC's winter meeting in Honolulu.

Young Eagles participants are invited to attend several 2-day meetings each year, including an annual meeting in DC. They are also invited to participate on conference calls with senior RNC staff and to join fellow big donors at regional meetings, according to a fact sheet first posted by The Huffington Post (pdf).

With a little more than a month to go until the May 4 OH SEN primary, LG Lee Fisher (D) has a 7-point lead on Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D) in the race for the Dem nod, but a plurality of voters remain undecided, according to a new Quinnipiac Univ. poll released today.

Quinnipiac surveyed 978 Dem primary likely voters from Mar. 25-28, for a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

Primary Election Matchup
Fisher   33%
Brunner  26

For the first time this cycle, the Q poll screened for voter likelihood. Quinnipiac also pushed leaners, but fully 40% of likely voters still said they were undecided.

Further underscoring the uncertainty in the race, just 31% of those who expressed a choice in the ballot test said they had made up their mind, while 65% of those who said they prefer Fisher or Brunner said they might change their mind between now and the primary.

Fisher leads Brunner among men, 37-26%. But Brunner closes the gap among women, who favor Fisher, 30-27%. Fisher is generally viewed more favorably than Brunner. His fav/unfav rating is 33%/8%, while Brunner's is 24%/7%.

Fisher is also seen as more likely to win the general election against ex-Rep./ex-OMB Dir. Rob Portman (R), who is unopposed in his bid for the GOP nod. Among likely Dem primary voters, 37% say Fisher is more likely to win the general, while just 18% see Brunner as the better candidate in Nov.

"World News" led with arrests of a small Christian militia in the Midwest. "Evening News" led with the Moscow subway suicide bombings. "Nightly News" led with the bombings in Moscow and previewed Pres. Obama's "Today" interview with Matt Lauer.

The Tea Partiers and recent RNC FEC reports were discussed on cable last night.

Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL) talked with CNN's Sanchez on "Campbell Brown" 3/29 p.m.

Grayson, on violence over health care stemming form the Tea Party groups: "There have been all sorts of efforts to insight violence by the right-wing. And that's the way the right-wing operates. That's the way it's operated historically. ... But the fact is that it comes from the ideology and not from any one particular person."

Grayson: "The right has fomented a national nervous breakdown. They keep pushing the panic button on their followers over and over and over again, trying to get them stoked on hatred and on fear. And they've succeeded. They've succeed in driving these people to the point where they're threatening my 5-year-old son."

Grayson, on the principles of Young Americans For Freedom, a Tea Party group: "Your principles are violence" ("Campbell Brown," CNN, 3/29).

After the jump, MSNBC is all over the new issues facing RNC chair Michael Steele.

Good Tuesday morning. We hope you're having a relaxing recess. Unfortunately, when members hit the trail, that's when we get busy. No rest for the nosy.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

NRSC CHAIR JOHN CORNYN: Aware that Dems are using their first week of recess to push health care reform's immediate impact, the NRSC chairman is urging his candidates to fight back. In a memo to candidates, Cornyn says the GOP believes health care will be a major issue in the coming midterms, and that the GOP should appropriate their rivals' message in order to score an advantage.

"There is no doubt that the Democrats' contentious health care takeover, and the partisan maneuvers they used to force it into law, will be a critical issue for both parties over next seven months -- and the contrast for voters could not be more clear," Cornyn writes in the memo, to be sent out this morning. "Americans have a chance to restore the checks-and-balances and accountability that they deserve in Washington by electing Republicans to the U.S. Senate. Or they can maintain the status quo and endorse the Democrats' partisan maneuvers and costly spending agenda that will continue to cost critical American jobs."

"Republicans are offering a robust and positive alternative to the current one-party Democrat rule in Washington," Cornyn adds. "As Republican candidates for Senate, your job is to continue drawing these important contrasts with the Democrats' agenda in Washington, while advancing our positive agenda for creating jobs, and striving to bring fiscal sanity to our Federal government."

Notably absent: Aside from a mention of a Washington Post poll, Cornyn never mentions the word "repeal," even as GOP leaders embrace the Club for Growth-backed effort to undo the Dem legislation.

RNC CHAIR MICHAEL STEELE: A day after a story detailing an outside consultant's trip to an L.A. strip club, the sharks are circling once again. Steele, who was in Tampa yesterday scouting out locations for the RNC's '12 convention, is once again the source of internal griping and frustration, even though he was nowhere near the event when it took place.

Instead, insiders agree, the latest error goes to the heart of the RNC's real problem: In both this case and the last major gaffe, when a PowerPoint presentation was discovered at a FL hotel, it has been the finance committee responsible for giving the RNC an unnecessary bruise. Steele, as it turns out, is becoming exactly what RNC members believed he would be when he was elected: A good communicator of the party's message, which he's stuck to well, of late, but a poor fundraiser.

In the life of a major committee, $2K spent at a restaurant is barely a drop in the bucket (Okay, a bondage-themed strip club doesn't help). But Congressional and professional GOPers see the expenditure as the next ounce of proof that there will be no help from the top this election season, which worries the party that stands to benefit most from the current political climate.

MN GOV. TIM PAWLENTY: It may be ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin who gets noticed on Facebook all the time, but tomorrow, TPaw is the one trying out new things online. Pawlenty will host a Facebook town hall meeting tomorrow evening, where he promises a "major announcement."

An RNC contractor was reimbursed for almost $2K in expenses at an L.A. strip club and the committee spent $17K on private jets last month, the latest sign that the GOP's main political arm still has problems to overcome before the midterm elections.

But this time, the problems are not with chair Michael Steele. Instead, it has become clear to RNC members and political professionals in DC that the problem is with the RNC's finance department -- both thanks to sloppy book-keeping and to unprofessional behavior.

The latest revelations, published this morning by The Daily Caller, show an RNC consultant spent $1,946 at a bondage-themed night club in L.A. That comes about 4 weeks after a party PowerPoint presentation, in which the RNC mocks their own donors, was discovered at a posh FL hotel.

In both cases, insiders blamed the finance department. In the latest incident, it is likely a low-level staffer approved an expense report that should never have been submitted. In the earlier incident, RNC insiders blamed a more senior finance official for producing an unprofessional document in the first place, under the quickly disproven theory it would never become public.

Since hiring a new communications director in Feb., Steele has largely kept himself in only the right kinds of headlines -- attacking Dems for passing health care, raising over $1.2M in a bid to retire Speaker Nancy Pelosi and, largely, staying on message.

But Steele's early gaffes produced a constant stream of negative stories, and now the DC political media (Your Hotline OnCall editor included) hangs on his every word waiting for another provocative statement to tumble forth. The finance department's errors, one exasperated RNC member told us this afternoon, is "the latest of the death by a thousand cuts."

What really concerns political professionals and top RNC members is that Steele is proving to be exactly what his friends hoped for and his enemies feared when he won election a little over a year ago: Backers advertised him as an effective spokesman for the party out of power. Detractors said he had no experience raising the kinds of big bucks it took to fund the RNC.

Now, with Steele on message once again, his shortcomings in the financial department are getting the most attention. He has angered big donors by failing to pay attention to them, and his committee is burning through money faster than he can raise it. Last month, the RNC brought in $7.68M and spent $7.7M; sources could not remember the last time the party spent more than it brought in so early in the cycle.

Without RNC assistance, the NRCC will be dramatically outspent this fall, while the DSCC is on pace to outraise and outspend the NRSC too, though by a much narrower margin. A fundraising problem at the top will have a trickle-down effect on GOP chances around the nation, and it could seriously hinder the party's prospects in what should otherwise be an excellent year politically.

What's worse, the finance department's gaffes have made everyone else's life more difficult. A source with knowledge of the committee's inner workings said RNC executive director Ken McKay, who has gotten positive reviews during his year at the helm, has had to spend much more time managing the erstwhile fundraisers after the PowerPoint incident.

Rep. John Spratt (D) filed to run for re-election this afternoon, according to an official at the SC Dem Party HQs, taking one name off the list of potential Dem retirees.

Spratt has been gearing up for a re-election bid for months, but a sub-par 4thQ fundraising haul fueled rumors that he might retire. He put an end to that talk with today's filing, which came one day before the state's deadline.

Still, his re-election won't be easy, as he's expected to face top-tier state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R) in the general. The NRCC is high on Mulvaney, and moved him up to "Contender" status -- the second of three tiers on the cmte's "Young Guns" program -- late last week. He managed to raise $128K in the 4thQ, outperforming Spratt's $77K, but GOPers expect him to post a better number when 1stQ reports are filed in mid-Apr.

It's imperative that Mulvaney begin to string together a few strong fundraising qtrs, as advertising in the CD is very expensive. The Rock Hill-based CD encompasses four media markets, including the very pricey Charlotte market.

Despite the CD's GOP lean (John McCain took 53% there in '08), Spratt has taken less than 55% just twice in 13 re-election bids. His closest call was in the GOP wave cycle of '94, when businessman Larry Bigham (R) took 48%, despite being outspent 3-1. Mulvaney is hoping the expected GOP tide this year will help him topple Spratt.

KY AG Jack Conway (D), who has become the underdog in the Dem SEN primary against LG Daniel Mongiardo (D) this year, has come out swinging in recent weeks.

The latest shot: Today, the campaign released a video charging that Mongiardo has missed 70% of E-Health board meetings his admin scheduled over the past 5 years. Conway spokeswoman Allison Haley called it a major indictment of Mongiardo because he listed e-health as a priority for the state.

But, shot back Mongiardo campaign manager Kim Geveden: "Why don't you ask them who established that board? [Then-]state Sen. Daniel Mongiardo." The board meets on Mondays, Gevedan said, which is when Mongiardo sees patients in his other job as an ear, nose and throat specialist.

Prior to today's missive, the Conway campaign attacked Mongiardo's position on the health care package that was signed into law last week, suggesting that Mongiardo would have voted against the passed law. Mongiardo's team waved off the criticism explaining that the LG supported the revised version but would like further legislation to deal with the delivery system, a point he has made consistently throughout the race.

Mongiardo was drawn into the back and forth over health care, too, pushing back that Conway stayed silent when Rep. Ben Chandler (D), a key Conway backer, voted against the revised bill that passed the House last week. Mongiardo's camp also accused Conway of flip-flopping on a piece of the legislation.

Geveden said Mongiardo's campaign feels good where it is right now, pointing to polls that show Mongiardo has maintained a lead in the polls over Conway. He said Conway's attacks "are a sign of desperation rather than a sign he's moving," noting that the AG's campaign has issued more of the attacks as Mongiardo rolls out union endorsements.

The next battle is the ubiquitous war over debate schedules. Both sides are suggesting they've agreed to debates that the other has refused. Haley refused to release Conway's debating itinerary because they haven't made it public yet. Geveden ticked off half a dozen debates coming in April, including a televised showdown at Bowling Green on April 15.

Ex-Gov. Terry Branstad (R) is up with his first TV ad of the race, a 60-second spot produced by Alfano Communications and entitled "Ready."

The spot features a slew of Branstad supporters praising Branstad as a proven commodity, interspersed with a couple of clips of Branstad speeches in which the ex-gov. lays out some of his economic goals.

"You know, I'd like to start today with one simple question. Are you ready for a comeback," asks Branstad at the top of the ad, in keeping with his current "Iowa Comeback Tour" theme, through which Branstad seeks to tout his long record as gov. (he served 4 terms, from '83 to '99) and evoke positive memories of his tenure among the IA electorate, while seeking to cast himself as a capable alternative to Gov. Chet Culver (D).

Branstad, the frontrunner in a GOP race that also includes '02 candidate/'06 LG nominee/businessman Bob Vander Plaats (R) and state Rep. Rod Roberts (R), looks at present to be a formidable challenger to Culver, who has been weighed down by relatively low approval ratings and economic concerns among IA voters.

An independent Congressional panel on Monday alleged ex-Rep. Nathan Deal (R-GA) violated House rules by interfering with a state contract involving a business he owned, a unanimous decision that could hurt Deal's future political career.

The report, issued by the Office of Congressional Ethics, alleges Deal met with state officials to allow his company to continue conducting vehicle inspections on GA's behalf. The program, according to the allegation, "generated significant personal financial benefit for him and a business partner."

Deal's chief of staff attended the meetings and subsequently used his House email account to discuss the program. The office further alleged, in the Monday report, that Deal did not disclose all the income he earned from the company, Gainesville Salvage and Disposal.

Deal resigned earlier this month to pursue a bid to replace GA Gov. Sonny Purdue (R). Deal isn't the front-runner in the GOP primary contest, in which he is running against state Insurance Commis. John Oxendine (R) and 5 others.

The Office of Congressional Ethics has been investigating Deal's involvement in the case since an Oct. complaint. The board originally found Deal to have violated House rules in Jan., forwarding their report to the House ethics committee in early Feb.

The OCE also used the report to recommend issuing a subpoena for LG Casey Cagle (R), whose office did not cooperate with the panel. Cagle is running for re-election this fall.

The House ethics committee, formally known as the Committee on Standards of Official Conduct, is said to be investigating Deal's activities as well, but they have never confirmed an investigation. A spokesperson for the committee did not immediately return a phone call on Monday.

A House investigation is likely to seriously imperil Deal's chances in GA's July 20 primary. Deal's spokesperson also didn't immediately return a call.

The OCE, established for the first time at the beginning of this Congress, includes a bipartisan group of 8 former members of Congress, including chair David Skaggs (D-CO) and co-chair Porter Goss (R-FL). A 4-vote majority is required to take any action on the committee; all 6 members voted to refer Deal to the House ethics panel, while the 2 alternates only vote in certain circumstances.

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) takes his book tour to IA today, making 2 stops as a potential WH'12 rival slams his handling of health care legislation in his home state.

Romney will stop in Des Moines and Ames, home of Iowa State Univ., today as he hawks "No Apology: The Case for American Greatness." Romney will also meet privately with IA GOP chair Matt Strawn, the Des Moines Register reported today.

Meanwhile, MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) used a weekend stop in NH, the first primary state, to lambaste Romney's signature legislative accomplishment during his term as governor -- health care reform.

Pawlenty cited MA Treas. Tim Cahill (I), a former Dem who is running against Gov. Deval Patrick (D) by positioning himself to the right of both Patrick and the likely GOP nominee.

"Looking at the Massachusetts experience, it would not be one I would want for the country to follow any further," Pawlenty told the Nashua Telegraph in an interview this weekend.

It's not the first time Pawlenty has hit Romney over Commonwealth Care, the package Romney signed into law with support from Dems and GOPers alike. Pawlenty has used Romney's plan as a cudgel for months, hoping to raise new questions about Romney's conservative credentials.

Romney returns to NH next week for book signings and a stop at the Institute of Politics at St. Anselm College in Manchester.

By Jamie Shufflebarger

LG Mike Fedele (R) released his first TV ad of the CT GOV race Friday, a 30-second ad focusing on job creation and reducing CT's large budget deficit.

Fedele prominently features Gov. Jodi Rell (R) in the spot, despite suggestions he would run away from an incumbent whose poll numbers have dropped in recent months. Like other incumbent governors, Rell's popularity declined as the economy weakened, and opponents have attempted to tie Fedele to her fiscal policies.

Fedele's first ad, "Fedele 2010:"

Rell has clashed repeatedly with CT Dem lawmakers, who have a large majority in both chambers. In his ad, Fedele takes a similar stance, sternly denouncing Dem "tax-killing" policies. That's rhetoric that will play well in the primary, but may hurt him come November, if he makes it that far.

Fedele is fighting for attention in a very large GOP primary field. Fedele's chief competition is ex-U.S. Amb. to Ireland Tom Foley (R ), who switched from the CT SEN race in '09 and has committed millions of his own money to the race. Foley has been up on TV since Jan. and is currently leading most polls.

CT candidates must receive at least 15% of delegates at the May convention to move on to an August 10th primary.

Good Monday morning. Capitol Hill reporters are taking a much-needed break after a legislative sprint. Now, it's the campaign reporters who get to have all the fun. Stick with Hotline OnCall all week for a close-up look at how members are handling their recess.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

HEALTH CARE ACTIVISTS: Whether they support or oppose health care legislation Pres. Obama signed into law last week, activists who have made the most noise on both sides will be the ones driving the conversation this week. With members of Congress at home for Easter recess, the mood at town hall meetings and public events will go a long way toward influencing coverage of the bill going forward.

Polls over the weekend have shown a decidedly mixed picture. Americans are largely divided over the new law -- 46% support it, while 50% are opposed, according to a new Washington Post/ABC News poll. Last week, a CBS News/New York Times poll showed a small bump for the legislation after it became law.

What that tells us is that public opinion isn't solidified, but that the onus is on Dems to take advantage of their gains. Voters are still skeptical of the law, but their views are malleable. If Dems can convince voters the changes will benefit their bottom line, there's an opportunity for the majority; if GOPers are more successful in selling their version of events, the majority will have as many problems in Nov. as they did during the legislative process. How activists play this week will determine which narrative dominates headlines.

PRES. OBAMA: Coming off a big health care victory, Obama has a newly confident party at his back. With regulatory reform next on the list, a fight Obama is likely to win in the end, the party could build up some real momentum, at least on the legislative side. Then again, as fired up as Dems get -- and the WaPo/ABC News poll shows the enthusiasm gap shrinking between the 2 parties -- the GOP could reach new levels of anger, especially if a Supreme Court nomination fight takes place this summer.

But the key won't be either base; it will be independent voters who helped Obama score a big win in '08. Independent voters are the ones least happy with DC or either party. And, in some part, it's because of the process: With scrutiny focused on the process by which health care legislation passed, the bill earned a bad reputation. And Obama has been forced to use unpopular, and easily attacked, processes throughout his tenure; that continued this weekend, when Obama recess appointed 15 nominees whose progress had been stopped by Senate GOPers (check out our colleague Marc Ambinder's look at those who won appointment).

The Tea Party came to Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid's hometown 3/27, making it clear they view him as their No. 1 target in '10. To be sure, Reid remains one of the most vulnerable Dems on the Nov. ballot. But could the movement's plan to shine a "spotlight" on Searchlight backfire?

In his bid for a sixth term, Reid is being widely portrayed as an out-of-touch pol more focused on advancing his party's nat'l agenda than catering to the kitchen-table issues of average NVans. That image, accurate or not, has made Reid into a nat'l target, not just a NV GOP one.

But until yesterday's Tea Party gathering brought the nat'l media to this small town 60 miles south of Vegas, most Americans likely had no idea that Reid grew up in such a hardscrabble place. In fact, Reid grew up poor in Searchlight. His father was an alcoholic miner who eventually committed suicide; his mother supported him by doing laundry for a local bordello. He hitchhiked 40 miles to the nearest high school each week.

Pictures of the town yesterday were kinda shocking, even if you knew about Reid's past. And so, we ask, did the Tea Party activists inadvertantly ... humanize Harry Reid?

Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) is using the prospect of a strong challenger to raise money for his bid for a fourth term.

"With news that former Bush administration HHS Secretary Tommy Thompson is very likely to run against me this November, it's no surprise that the media is reporting that Thompson is now 'calling top donors.' They have also reported that 'lots of people in Washington' want the D.C. insider to run against us and that he has collected over $200,000 in pledges for his campaign," Feingold wrote in a fundraising email this morning.

Thompson has reportedly begun working to divest himself of his business interests as he considers challenging Feingold. The former 4-term governor would give GOPers a strong candidate in a year in which the party is expected to have the wind at its back.

But Thompson hasn't been on a ballot since '98, and his WH'08 bid sank after failing to gain any momentum. Feingold had $3.6M in the bank as of the end of the year, making any Thompson bid an uphill affair.

And though he's been in office 18 years, Feingold can still claim something of an outsider mantle -- he votes frequently with GOPers, especially on legislation he doesn't see as liberal enough, and his name is attached to the most sweeping campaign finance legislation since Watergate. In the fundraising email, Feingold signaled he would paint Thompson as a DC insider.

"As you know, I've always taken on the special interests in Washington, while Secretary Thompson has taken them on as clients. That's the difference between the two of us. That's the choice for the people of Wisconsin as we move forward in this election," Feingold wrote.

Thompson would still make a formidable candidate, but he wouldn't have the primary field all to himself. Last month, developer Terrence Wall (R) ran his first ad of the race, aiming to paint Feingold as out of touch.

Ex-State House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) leads Gov. Charlie Crist (R) by 11 points in a new Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey released today in the contentious FL SEN primary, a margin smaller than other public polling has shown over the past month.

The poll was conducted Mar. 23-25 among 625 regular voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%. There was an oversample of 400 likely voters in the GOP primary, with a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Rubio and Crist were tested in general-election matchups with Rep. Kendrick Meek (D).

Primary Election Matchup
Rubio  48%
Crist  37

General Election Matchups
Crist  50%
Meek   26

Rubio  44%
Meek   29

A recent poll conducted for the liberal DailyKos website showed Rubio leading the primary by a much larger margin -- 28 points. Numerous public automated polls have all shown Rubio leading by more than 20 points over the past month.

Crist has recently started to tap his large war-chest to go on the offensive against Rubio. He launched an ad this week knocking Rubio's insurgent image by calling him "a veteran insider who manipulated the system."

The Crist camp immediately seized on the poll results as a sign that, after being drubbed over the past few months, their attacks on Rubio were making headway.

"Polls will continue to fluctuate throughout this campaign," Crist spokesperson Amanda Henneberg said in a statement. "However, voters are just beginning to see the real Marco Rubio, as opposed to the idealized version of the Speaker that is based on rhetoric alone."

But comparing results from different pollsters is not an accepted way to judge momentum in the race. The last time Mason-Dixon polled the race was last June, before Rubio's sudden and rapid rise, when Crist held a commanding, 51%-23%, lead.

The poll also shows Crist running stronger against Meek in Nov., in large part due to the fact that Crist holds Meek to a 45%-36% among Dems. Rubio captures only 16% of the Dem vote against Meek, but he leads Meek by wider margins among GOPers and indies than Crist.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

Meet the Press hosts Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY). The roundtable features historian Doris Kearns Goodwin, Newsweek's Jon Meacham, GOP strategist Mike Murphy and Dem strategist Bob Shrum.

Face the Nation hosts Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) and DNC chair/ex-VA Gov. Tim Kaine.

This Week hosts WH sr. adviser Valerie Jarrett, PA Gov. Ed Rendell (D) and MS Gov. Haley Barbour (R-MS). The roundtable features Washington Post's George Will, New York Times' Paul Krugman, Dem strategist Donna Brazile and Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan.

Fox News Sunday hosts a debate between FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) and ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R).

State of the Union hosts WH sr. adviser David Axelrod, Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) and Sen. Barbara Milulski (D-MD).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

GOPers will do their best to sell new health care reforms as excessive overreaches of government, even as the party subtly shifts to an economic-centric focus, according to documents handed to members of Congress as they left town this week.

In a note to colleagues, House GOP Conference chair Mike Pence urges them to remind their constituents they voted against health care legislation while hammering Dems for failing to turn the economy around.

"We will not allow this government takeover of health care to define the course of our country for the next generation. So long as the American people are willing to stand up on behalf of limited government, freedom, personal responsibility, and economic liberty, then so must we. Republicans will stay firm and stay engaged," Pence wrote.

Meanwhile, in his own memo, House Min. Leader John Boehner pushed members to make the case that the WH has lost touch with the American public.

"Americans have never felt more disconnected from their government than they do today," Boehner wrote. "The American people know there's a better way than the Democrats' job-killing agenda of big spending and bigger government. They want policies that will encourage job creation rather than threaten and destroy jobs; policies that will help ensure a better future for our children rather than saddling them with trillions in new debt. The American people are in charge. And Republicans are listening to the American people."

Both Boehner and Pence signaled the GOP will urge repeal of health care legislation Pres. Obama signed into law earlier this week. Boehner's memo uses the word "repeal" 9 times, while Pence uses it 7 times.

"Republicans will continue to stand on principle, hold President Obama accountable for his promises, and fight to repeal this government takeover of health care so we can start over on common-sense reforms that lower costs for families and small businesses," Boehner wrote.

Meanwhile, expect the NRCC to attempt to meld health care and spending as companies around the nation evaluate their costs under the new law. Already, CAT, Deere and several other corporations have voiced concern about their ability to afford costs imposed by the bill.

The D.C. Circuit Court of Appeals on Friday handed advocates of campaign finance reform a defeat and a victory, deciding 2 closely-watched cases that challenged the limits of campaign expenditures and contributions.

The Court ruled against reform advocates in one case, declaring that organizations that operate independently of candidates and party committees can accept unlimited contributions to run certain ads. The suit, brought by a conservative 527 known as SpeechNow.org, will allow the independent organizations to run ads that expressly advocate for the election or defeat of a certain candidate.

Campaign finance law traditionally aims to keep corruption or the appearance of corruption out of politics. Because the outside groups operate independently of the campaigns, there is no chance for corruption, the Court found.

In a second ruling out of the DC Circuit, campaign finance advocates won a small victory as the Court knocked down an RNC lawsuit seeking to challenge a ban on soft money. The McCain-Feingold act prohibited state and national parties from using non-federal funds -- in other words, funds they could raise with fewer restrictions -- for political activities like voter registration drives, get-out-the-vote efforts and any paid media that makes reference to a federal candidate.

The RNC challenged the law shortly after the '08 elections. Today, a 3-judge panel unanimously agreed with the FEC that a soft-money ban is constitutional.

The litigation may not be finished yet. The FEC will have to decide whether to appeal SpeechNow's victory today, while the RNC is considered very likely to take their case to the Supreme Court. Earlier this year, the Court issued a sweeping ruling eliminating key provisions of settled campaign finance law, making reform advocates nervous about their prospects before the high court.

Dems will tout their work in Congress during the Easter recess, embracing a new health care law and other key accomplishments, according to a memo distributed to House members as they leave for the week.

The memo, from Speaker Nancy Pelosi's office, urges members to spend their time off highlighting stimulus legislation and jobs bills, along with laws that reform the student lending industry, help homeowners avoid foreclosure and promote job training.

But amid a tense political climate after health care legislation became law this week, Dems are most concerned with making the tough political fight they just won work for them.

"With the passage of health insurance reform, this District Work Period is a critical time to go on offense," a packet sent to members yesterday says. Dems should focus on immediate benefits the bill provides, while also talking up job creation legislation and taxes, which Dems will say have been cut by $800B this session.

It's not as if Dems have any choice but to embrace health care. The party voted overwhelmingly in favor of the legislation, and the public remains evenly divided over the bill, at best. At worst, the public still sees it unfavorably.

Dems are understandably nervous about heading home. In Aug., incumbents came under fire at town hall meetings and other events where angry constituents demanded an end to the legislative efforts. Now, some members have been granted police protection after receiving threats.

But it's also the party's single best opportunity to take advantage of the new laws. Seniors have seen the Medicare donut hole close, and more young adults can be covered through their parents' insurance. If Dems can make that case, the party has a chance to avoid a total meltdown this Nov.

Check in with Hotline OnCall this afternoon, when we'll preview the GOP's recess plans.

Having gone through the health care debate, the last thing Dems want to do is take more tough votes. But the Senate could be in for at least one more battle this year if Associate Justice John Paul Stevens steps down.

In a recent profile, Stevens told The New Yorker he would retire within the next 3 years. But Court watchers are starting to believe the senior member and leader of the 4-vote liberal bloc is ready to retire to FL sooner rather than later.

The WH and conservative groups are gearing up for battle, now that Stevens' retirement is "widely anticipated," as the New York Times writes. Liberals have their favored candidates, all of whom could make Justice Sonia Sotomayor's confirmation battle look like a walk in the park.

Liberals favor Harold Koh, Cass Sunstein or Diane Wood. Pres. Obama vetted Wood for his first Court appointment; Sunstein runs the WH Office of Information and Regulatory Affairs; and Koh is the State Dept's senior legal advisor.

Obama's team has also vetted Solicitor General Elena Kagan and DHS Sec. Janet Napolitano. Kagan is seen as the more liberal of the 2, while Napolitano woulkd be the only member of the Court with electoral experience, as Sandra Day O'Connor had.

Perhaps the safest pick would be Merrick Garland, a Court of Appeals judge who was confirmed by a wide margin when Bill Clinton tapped him to take over for Abner Mikva. Sens. Bob Bennett (R-UT), Kit Bond (R-MO), Thad Cochran (R-MS), Susan Collins (R-ME), Orrin Hatch (R-UT), Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX), Jim Inhofe (R-OK), Richard Lugar (R-IN), John McCain (R-AZ), Pat Roberts (R-KS) and Olympia Snowe (R-ME) all voted for Garland's nomination in '97.

In reporting on Stevens' possible retirement, the Times also points to Stanford Law professor Pamela Karlan, MA Gov. Deval Patrick (D), MI Gov. Jennifer Granholm and Sens. Dick Durbin (D-IL) and Claire McCaskill (D-MO).

With an election just months away and a conservative base that's already fired up, the WH has a choice to make: Pick a safer candidate and guarantee confirmation, or pick a riskier contender who would bolster the Court's liberal wing and guarantee a fight?

Coming off the health care debate, Pres. Obama has the momentum, and the political capital, to make either option viable. But CoS Rahm Emanuel may have hinted at an emboldened WH's new approach, in an interview last night with PBS's Jim Lehrer: On health care, Emanuel said, Obama "was willing to spend that political capital to get something done. That's what leadership is made of."

A summer confirmation battle just months before a midterm election would be, in some ways, the only fitting follow-up to the end of the health care debate.

Update: A reader notes that Judge Wood was confirmed unanimously in '95.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) leads LG Bill Halter (D) in a primary matchup, but she's under the crucial 50% mark and Halter has room to grow, according to a new survey for the liberal DailyKos website.

Research 2000 surveyed 600 likely voters between Mar. 22-24 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. An oversample of 400 Dem primary voters had a margin of error of +/- 5%. Lincoln and Halter were tested against Rep. John Boozman (R), state Sen. Kim Hendren (R), state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R), Safe Foods CEO Curtis Coleman (R) and AR Tea Party organizer Tom Cox (R).

Primary Election Matchup
Lincoln      44% (+2 from last, 12/2)
Halter       31  (+5)

General Election Matchups
Baker        49  (+8)      Baker        46  (+4)
Lincoln      41  (-1)      Halter       44  (+10)
Boozman      49  (n/t)     Boozman      48  (n/t)
Lincoln      42            Halter       40
Coleman      47  (+8)      Halter       45  (+10)
Lincoln      44  (+0)      Coleman      44  (+4)
Cox          47  (+16)     Halter       45  (+9)
Lincoln      43  (-2)      Cox          43  (+11)
Hendren      48  (+18)     Hendren      45  (+14)
Lincoln      43  (-3)      Halter       44  (+8)

Dems are clearly comfortable with the idea of Halter as their nominee. In lots of primaries, one sees voters saying they'll stay home in a general instead of supporting the other candidate, creating an artificially high number of undecideds in general election matchups; that isn't happening in AR.

Halter has room to grow, too. Fully 22% of Dems have no opinion about him, and Lincoln's team should be worried about the 25% of primary voters who say they have yet to make up their minds. If they're not decided on the incumbent from their own party, they're likely to break against Lincoln.

"World News" and "Evening News" each led with the latest Catholic Church sex abuse scandal. "Nightly News" led with the health care fight.

WH CoS Rahm Emanuel made the TV show rounds 3/25 p.m.

Emanuel, on whether it was a "mistake" to push and push to pass something: "No. No. I mean, the president, he set out a goal. ... He set out a goal and he went back to Iowa City, where he announced almost three years ago what he wanted to see in health care reform."

Emanuel, on whether it's "true" that he "advocated" going a "little bit slower" and "smaller" on reform: "A job of the chief of staff is to provide the president with a sense of options and to weigh those equities. His strength is that he wanted that, looked at that, and it was one of the things that he said, then, this is why I think it's so important to spend the political capital to get that done."

Emanuel, on Obama: "He didn't want a bunch of yes-people. He asked for a constant debate about stuff. And he said that the importance of getting health care reform, of finally putting a basis in place that can finally control costs, change the incentives in the system, provide people who don't have health care, because they're caught between the public and the private system, the coverage they need, it's worth doing."

More Emanuel: "And that is the real leadership of this president. What I provided him was, here's a way to do it without the political kind of cost. He was willing to spend that political capital to get something done. That's what leadership is made of."

After the jump, more from Emanuel, and bipartisan reactions to the violence.

Good Friday morning. Congress is on its way out of town, but while Hill reporters take a much-needed break, we're on alert for the first campaign swings of the year.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make news this weekend:

SARAH PALIN: Palin has a busy weekend ahead of her. Palin is in Tucson today and Mesa tomorrow for a rally with Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who faces a tough challenge from the right. The cable nets will focus on reuniting the old team, but what's really telling is how much McCain needs Palin. Just 2 years after securing the GOP WH nomination, McCain has to bring in star-quality GOPers to bolster his campaign.

After the Mesa event, Palin stops in Searchlight, NV, for a Tea Party rally in Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid's hometown. Palin will be speaking to her real base; she has a 72% fav rating among Tea Party activists, according to the latest Quinnipiac Univ. poll. If she's going to launch a national movement, the Tea Partiers will be the side that gives her the momentum.

That's not to say there won't be counter-protestors: We hear Reid's campaign will be on hand in Searchlight, handing out donut holes (Think Medicare reference) and tea to gently mock the party-goers.

MITT ROMNEY: Not to be outdone on the campaign trail, Romney is starting his own wave of endorsements of conservative candidates who favor repealing health care legislation. Romney endorsed 3 incumbent members of Congress in MO and Rep. Roy Blunt (R), who is running for the state's open SEN seat. Romney will headline a campaign event for Tom Schweich (R), a candidate for state auditor, in Apr. in St. Louis.

Romney's team is rolling out a series of "Prescription for Repeal" endorsements in the coming weeks, a signal that he's serious about helping GOP candidates in '10 -- and collecting chits he may need if and when he makes another WH bid in '12. But his decision to skip SRLC is raising eyebrows; spokesman Eric Fehrnstrom tells us Romney is still on his book tour, though a source close to SRLC organizers says they haven't totally given up hope they can convince Romney to attend.

For more on Romney's decision to skip the event, to be held next month in New Orleans, check out our story here.

REP. KEVIN MCCARTHY: Speaking of recruiting candidates, McCarthy, who heads up the NRCC's recruiting shop, is headed out on another swing through key districts in IL, IN, OH, PA and NJ during next week's recess. McCarthy told Hotline OnCall he's aiming to field candidates in all 435 districts -- something that one party hasn't accomplished in at least 20 years -- in order to take advantage of what he still expects to be a big wave for the GOP.

As Pres. Obama hits the road to sell health care reform, congressional leaders in DC are divided in their response to the recent spate of violent and threatening incidents on the heels of Sunday's health care vote.

House Maj. Leader Steny Hoyer told reporters yesterday that at least 10 House Dems who voted for the health care overhaul had reported threats or harassment. Some, such as Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI), have received death threats via fax and voicemail, while others, such as Reps. Louise Slaughter (D-NY) and Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ), have reported windows and doors smashed at their CD offices.

In the case of Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA), the FBI is conducting an investigation following the discovery of a severed gas line at the home of Perriello's brother one day after Tea Partiers posted the address online.

As the reports of threats and vandalism mounted, some congressional leaders called for calm.

"Violence and threats are unacceptable. That is not the American way," House Min. Leader John Boehner said during an appearance on FNC's "America Live" this a.m. "Yes, I know there's anger, but let's take that anger and go out and register people to vote, go volunteer on a political campaign, and let's do it the right way."

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) also denounced the incidents. "Any threats of violence or anything along those lines is totally unacceptable and we condemn it all," McCain said in an appearance on NBC's "Today" this a.m.

In a Wednesday presser, Hoyer denounced the violent behavior, saying it "undermines our democracy and undermines the safety of individuals." But he also intimated that GOPers must take a stronger stand against it, noting that "to remain silent gives the impression of condoning or sanctioning such actions."

Some congressional leaders have been more direct in assigning blame.

DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen charged that GOPers have fanned the flames of voter anger and that the party needs "some adult supervision." Van Hollen, addressing the incidents on MSNBC's "Hardball" 3/24 p.m.: "These guys are united together. This is now the face of the Republican Party. They have not taken responsibility. They've not led by example. ... There is no denying the fact that they are stoking the flames here."

DNC chair Tim Kaine told the Huffington Post that GOPers "tried to stoke public anger" in the days leading up to the health care vote, and that "the anger has taken some very, frankly, predictable forms that I don't think they can't walk away from and explain."

Ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) will head to 2 key primary states in the next 2 months, keeping his name at the front of conservative activists' minds as he considers a WH bid in '12.

Santorum will head to Council Bluffs, IA, on Tuesday, where he will keynote an annual fundraiser of the Pottawattamie Co. GOP. Council Bluffs, along the Missouri River, is in heavily-GOP western IA.

The ex-PA Sen. will travel to SC in May to headline a fundraising breakfast for the Dorchester Co. GOP. Dorchester Co. includes some well-populated Charleston suburbs, and it's one of the fastest-growing counties in the state.

The visits will be Santorum's third trip to both early nominating states. In Oct., Santorum gave a lecture to a prominent conservative group in Dubuque, on IA's eastern border with IL and WI. Earlier this month, he went to Des Moines to give an address to a prominent Christian conservative group.

And in Dec., he made a 3-city tour of SC, stopping in Spartanburg, Greenville and Hilton Head to campaign for Rep. Gresham Barrett (R), a GOV candidate. Santorum was in Charleston for a fundraiser for the SC GOP in Jan.

Santorum is well aware of how his trips are viewed. "When you give a speech in either Iowa or New Hampshire, as a Republican or a Democrat, people pay attention," he said on a conference call with reporters in Sept.

The Richmond Police Department confirmed Thursday that a single detective is looking into a broken window at a building in which Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA) holds occasional meetings.

Cantor said earlier today a bullet had been fired at his campaign office. Subsequent news reports revealed a window was broken at the office of one of Cantor's political consultants in Richmond. The incident occured about 1 a.m. on Tuesday morning.

"A preliminary investigation shows that a bullet was fired into the air and struck the window in a downward direction, landing on the floor about a foot from the window," the department said in a statement, forwarded by Cantor's office. "The round struck with enough force to break the windowpane but did not penetrate the window blinds. There was no other damage to the room, which is used occasionally for meetings by the congressman."

Cantor revealed the incident while reading a brief statement, during which he accused Dems of playing up alleged threats against Dem lawmakers. Cantor singled out DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen and DNC chair Tim Kaine for "dangerously fanning the flames" by talking about the incidents.

No Dem lawmaker has blamed a GOP lawmaker, or the party itself, for inciting violence or threats. Several lawmakers have had windows at their offices broken, while a gas line at the home of Rep. Tom Perriello's (D-VA) brother was severed. Several other lawmakers, most notably Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI), released threatening messages.

Doug Thornell, a spokesman in Van Hollen's leadership office, said it was Cantor who was playing politics.

"Yesterday, Congressman Van Hollen called upon Republican leaders to condemn the harsh rhetoric that is fanning the flames of extremism around the country. Today, Mr. Cantor had the opportunity to join Mr. Van Hollen in calling for restraint," Thornell said. "Instead, he chose to use his press conference to level false accusations."

Richmond police said they were sharing information with "appropriate law enforcement agencies." There are no suspects.

Congressional Dems and GOPers both expect that their own party's political base will be more energized by health care reform in Nov., according to the new National Journal Congressional Insiders poll. The results were overwhelming in each party -- 77% among Dems and 97% among GOPers.

Admitting that they had been worried about discouragement over the election, Dems said that Pres. Obama's signing of the bill this week will be a huge political boost. "The Democratic base needed the energy more and will gain more out of the bill's passage -- a lot more," said one Dem Insider. Another replied, "We won. And we delivered on a Democratic promise decades in the making."

Dems added that they expect to gain additional political benefit from the growing influence of the Tea Party movement on GOPers. One cited "a developing split in the tea party base ... over extreme behavior." Another said, "Americans are finally getting a real glimpse of the disingenuous rhetoric of the Republican Party and the radical, racist and sometimes violent tactics of the tea party they court."

GOP Insiders based their enthusiasm on what they view as overreach by the Obama admin and its congressional allies. "In all my years of being around politics, I have never seen our base -- and a whole lot of people who haven't been in our base -- so angry and motivated by Obamacare's taxes, debt, and control provisions," one GOPer responded. Another said, "Anger is a better motivator in an election cycle."

Also in this week's poll, the Congressional Insiders were politically divided on the Obama administration's recent dealings with Israel. The actions were "about right," according to 82% of the Dems. The remainder were divided between those who called it "too tough" and "too lenient." In a typical reply, a Dem wrote, "President Obama recognizes that a peace process is predicated on confidence-building measures committed to by both sides, not just one."

Among GOPers, by contrast, 80% said the admin's recent dealings with Israel were "too tough," while only 11% responded "about right" and 6% said "too lenient." According to a GOP critic, "This administration often makes concessions to countries like Russia, yet it ignores or snubs many of our country's best allies, like Israel." Another responded, "There is one democracy in the Middle East. And this administration wants to fight with them. Are you kidding me?"

For complete results and comments from the Congressional Insiders on both questions, click here.

Ex-state Sen. Dino Rossi (R) is seriously contemplating a bid against Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) after a 2-day trip to DC to discuss the possibility.

Several sources with knowledge of the trip confirm Rossi came to DC at the invitation of the NRSC. While in town, he met with the NRSC, RNC chair Michael Steele, a number of GOP senators and other top party leaders as he weighs taking on the popular 3-term incumbent.

The NRSC refused to comment on Rossi's trip.

Rossi has broad name ID in WA after 2 unsuccessful bids against Gov. Chris Gregoire (D). In heavily-Dem WA, he lost in '04 by just 129 votes out of about 3M cast. In '08, he lost by 6 points, still impressive in a state that gave Pres. Obama an 18-point margin.

Murray has yet to draw a credible challenger. She has at least 8 opponents, the most prominent of whom -- state Sen. Don Benton (R) -- comes with baggage after his tenure as chair of the state GOP. And while Murray is the more popular of WA's 2 senators, a Rossi candidacy would put her seat in at least some jeopardy.

Rossi's decision to consider another bid for public office came after a GOP pollster showed numbers that suggested Murray was vulnerable. That pollster, Portland-based Moore Information, is now helping Rossi prepare in the event he decides to run; Hans Kaiser, the head of the firm's DC office, was guiding Rossi during his trip.

A top GOP source in WA tells Hotline OnCall that Rossi has told party leaders he will stop sharing his fundraising list, which he amassed during his GOV bids, as of Apr. 1, a sign, the source says, that Rossi is leaving all his options open.

Top WA GOPers say they will check in with Rossi this week, but they do not expect an immediate decision. Rossi would have until June to file for office, and sources suggest he would wait until nearly the last minute to enter the race, in hopes of a short sprint of a campaign.

Other GOPers question the wisdom of that decision. Murray had almost $5.2M in the bank at the end of the year, meaning she will be well-funded when she eventually gets a GOP challenger of note. If Rossi starts too late, some GOP strategists worry, he will not have the time to raise the money to mount a credible campaign.

Still, if Rossi enters the race, it will give GOPers another reasonable chance at picking up a seat. The party is already favored in Dem-held seats in DE, ND and IN, and Dems hold toss-up seats in AR, CO, IL, NV and PA. To contemplate winning back the majority, the GOP needs to put 2 more states in play. Rossi's candidacy could mean the GOP at least makes a play for the upper chamber this year.

KY AG Jack Conway (D) is set to launch a barrage of attacks on LG Daniel Mongiardo (D) in hopes that differences over health care reform could be Conway's key to clawing his way back in the Dem primary.

Strategists backing Conway see health care as a dividing line between the 2 contenders. Conway backs the health care law Pres. Obama signed this week, while Mongiardo has opposed the measure. In a new ad, Conway highlights similar statements Mongiardo and Sen. Mitch McConnell (R) made in hopes of highlighting the rift.

Mongiardo has not said he supported the Senate bill, which Pres. Obama signed on Tuesday. Instead, Mongiardo has said he supports the House-passed version, assuming he had assurances from the WH that the battle for reform would not end.

"Any reasonable person who's not trailing in a political campaign by 18 points would be very confident that, as the only Democratic doctor in the U.S. Senate, that Daniel Mongiardo would have received that assurance from the president," said Kim Gevedan, Mongiardo's spokesman.

In fact, Gevedan pointed out, one of Conway's biggest backers -- Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY) -- has voted against health care legislation 3 times, including both the House and Senate bills. "He's confused our position with Ben Chandler's position," Gevedan joked.

Conway is up with a limited ad buy at the moment, focused on the Louisville media market along with limited buys in Lexington, Evansville and Bowling Green. Mongiardo, on the other hand, is not on the air, though he is set to release a new ad hitting Conway sometime today. Gevedan would not say if Mongiardo will pay for television time to broadcast the ad.

The spat over health care is the latest flare-up in what has become one of the nastiest Dem primaries of the year. Last fall, both camps slapped each other over quips the candidates made. But the battles died down, in some respects, as a bitter GOP primary consumed political coverage in the state.

But renewed tensions between Conway and Mongiardo are also a recognition, from Conway's camp, that they have ground to make up. Recent public polling has shown Mongiardo with a lead, and with just 2 months until the primary, it's up to Conway to sieze momentum.

After the jump, check out Conway's latest ad, "Dr. No."

A major gathering of conservative activists early next month will be missing a key ingredient: 2 of the front-runners for the WH'12 nomination.

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) -- the 2 contenders seen as most obviously gearing up for WH bids -- will skip the meeting, to be held Apr. 8-11 in New Orleans.

Romney will still be on his book tour, promoting his new tome in NH, MA, PA and MN during the week. Pawlenty pulled out earlier this week in order to attend a welcome-home ceremony for U.S. troops.

Their absence will be notable in that they cede a major stage among conservative activists to other potential candidates. So far, LA Gov. Bobby Jindal (R), MS Gov. Haley Barbour (R), ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich (R), ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R), ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) and House GOP Conference chair Mike Pence have confirmed they will speak at the meeting.

By skipping the event, Romney and Pawlenty are encouraging questions about the amount of risk they're willing to take so early in the process, and the passion they engender among conservative activists, without whom winning a GOP primary is close to impossible. SRLC attendees will vote in a straw poll, and the winner is seen as having an early organizational advantage.

"It's a mistake for anyone with current ambition for the 2012 Republican presidential nomination not to attend," said Morton Blackwell, the veteran conservative activist. "Their absence weakens potential candidates, not the conference."

It will be the second straw poll of the shadow campaign that is already well underway. At last month's CPAC gathering in DC, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) won the vote thanks to an active effort to pack the room. Romney finished second, with Palin, Pawlenty, Pence, Gingrich and Huckabee coming in well behind the 2 leaders.

Critics say events like the SRLC and CPAC are not true representations of a candidate's strength. Attendees have to pay hefty prices -- tickets that allow participants to view the proceedings via simulcast in a different room are going for $119 -- and sending the crowds needed to compete can be costly for a campaign that cannot yet raise money publicly.

And past results indicates neither attendence nor performance is necessarily indicative of future strength. In '98, then-TX Gov. George W. Bush beat Steve Forbes and ex-VP Dan Quayle in the straw poll even though Bush didn't attend.

In '06, when The Hotline conducted the SRLC's straw poll, then-Senate Maj. Leader Bill Frist (R-TN) easily won the event, held in his home state of TN, followed by Romney, ex-Sen. George Allen (R-VA) and a write-in campaign for Bush. Frist and Allen didn't even run in '08, and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), whose team was behind the push to write in Bush, received just 5% of the vote.

Pres. Obama's approval rating has rebounded in Gallup's daily tracking poll, with the first survey conducted entirely after the House passed health care legislation showing that 51% of Americans approve of his job performance while 42% disapprove.

In Gallup's poll one week ago, Obama's approval rating was upside down, with just 46% approving of the job he was doing and 48% disapproving -- the lowest measured during his presidency thus far.

The current +9-point spread between his approve rating and his disapproval rating is the largest Gallup has measured since the 3 days ending Mar. 2. The last double-digit spread occurred in the 3 days ending Feb. 15.

The new Gallup poll comes in the wake of other public polling showing a slight bounce for Obama and the controversial health care legislation he signed into law on Mar. 23. A new CBS News poll released yesterday showed Obama's approve/disapprove at the same margin as the Gallup tracking poll, and a new Quinnipiac Univ. poll released today showed a slight increase support for health care reform and, surprisingly, the way both parties handled the issue in Congress.

Meanwhile, a separate, one-day USA Today/Gallup poll earlier this week showed that more Americans thought it was a good thing that the House passed the legislation than thought it was a bad thing.

The new Gallup poll surveyed 1,554 adults from Mar. 22-24. It carries a margin of error of +/- 2.5%.

Businessman Bill Binnie (R) on Wednesday said the GOP "lost its brand" because of heavy spending, and expressed deep concern over the national deficit, prioritizing it ahead of national security, and calling it "one of the most important issues I have ever seen in my life."

"I think we will look back today at 2010 and say the 2 or 3 issues is that this country is at a tipping point, and the rise of China. I don't think it's terrorism, as important and profound as that is," he said in an interview with Hotline OnCall. "Part of the reason we are where we are without doubt, is because we, the Republican Party, when we had the opportunity, did not cut spending."

Binnie, who has emerged in recent months as a threat to ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R), remained in step with his non-confrontational campaign against other GOPers, saying "I don't want to speak poorly of Kelly at all." Binnie characterized presumptive Dem nominee Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH) as "a liberal," aiming to tie Hodes the current admin. in DC, whom he said "thinks that flat is the new up; that break even is the new profitable."

Binnie appears to be positioning himself politically somewhere between Hodes and Ayotte, and his fate may ultimately depend on what themes matter most to voters this fall. Hodes will not shy away from running on health care, he told Hotline OnCall last week, while Ayotte has taken several more conservative stands Binnie seems unwilling to embrace.

Binnie, who doesn't often talk about social issues, and prefers to speak about the economy, has sought to portray himself as a fiscally conservative social moderate. He plays up his business background, which he says makes him the candidate best-equipped to address job creation and the economy. "I would focus my senatorial career on the competitiveness of the United States," he said.

Ayotte has sought to paint herself as the heir to Sen. Judd Gregg (R), who is retiring. But Binnie has distanced himself, expressing concern, for example, about a debt commission Gregg favors. And, Binnie said, as the nation tackles spending, even entitlements should be targeted for reduction "because it's 70% of the budget."

He has aligned himself with centrists such as ex-Sen. Connie Mack (R-FL) and ex-NY Gov. George Pataki (R) (Mack has fundraised with him, and Pataki will in the near future). "I guarantee you that I am as fiscally conservative, if not more so, than anybody in this race," he said.

Binnie said he would not have voted for the health care bill, but added that he saw elements that he liked including insurance exchanges. Binnie has said he would work on legislation to repeal the bill and replace it with a "common sense health care bill we can all afford." Ayotte, meanwhile, agrees with Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), who favors repeal first.

He argued that Pres. Obama is ultimately most responsible for a health care plan the GOPer said is too expensive and won't change health care costs. "He should have framed the debate and the dialogue so that he got the right solution," Binnie said

For Binnie, making it to a general election matchup with Hodes will mean beating frontrunner Ayotte, and her national GOP support base, which will be no easy task.

But Ayotte, while certainly the candidate to beat at present, is not invulnerable. As the oft-targeted frontrunner, she has been taking heat on multiple fronts. She has been repeatedly criticized by the NH Dems and Hodes for not solidifying policy positions.

FL AG Bill McCollum (R) is proudly leading the legal effort to repeal health care reform, but FL taxpayers may bear the cost of the controversial lawsuit.

McCollum argues that no one can be forced to buy a commercial product, and thus the individual mandate contained in the new health care reform law is unconstitutional. McCollum and his office have engaged in a months-long effort to draft the language of the suit, hiring high-powered DC attorney David Rivkin to argue the case and recruit other states' AGs to sign on. As of Wednesday, 14 state AGs have signed on, and others are examining the language of the health care law to see if a case is justifiable.

FL AG spokesperson Ryan Wiggins says that FL has asked other states to participate in a cost-sharing agreement to lower the cost of the lawsuit, but no agreement has been worked out yet and McCollum would go it alone if the other states refused to pay up.

"Absolutely, we will," Wiggins said, adding that McCollum "truly believes we have a case" and would fight to see it through.

McCollum is the GOP frontrunner for the '10 FL GOV race against CFO Alex Sink (D). McCollum, who faces a primary challenge from fiscal hawk state Sen. Paula Dockery (R), leads Sink in most polls, but has struggled to match her fundraising prowess. McCollum has claimed that there "is no politics involved with this [lawsuit] whatsoever," but Sink accuses him of using taxpayer money for a lawsuit that is not in the best interest of Floridians.

Other AGs are facing difficult political winds at home and may not be able to help FL pay the legal bills. In joining McCollum's lawsuit, WA AG Rob McKenna (R) is bucking WA Gov. Chris Gregoire (D). WA Dems have launched a legislative effort to stop McKenna from using state funds for the lawsuit, and Gregoire has said she will take legal action against McKenna's case.

"I suppose they could [pass a law]," said McKenna's spokesperson, Dan Sytman. "But the Attorney General's office has constitutional authority, so I doubt they'd ultimately be successful."

But Sytman insists that the actual financial cost to WA taxpayers would be minimal because it is "typical for the lead state to shoulder most of the resources" in multi-state cases. Other than McCollum, other AGs would contribute to the case mainly through conference calls and legal opining, he said.

McKenna, who is thought to harbor his own ambitions to move up to the WA GOV mansion in '12, was initially aggressive in joining McCollum's lawsuit, a move that raised eyebrows in a largely liberal state. In recent days, he has toned down his rhetoric as Gregoire and WA Dems counter-punched.

A legal bill spanning the entirety of the case could be hefty, Georgetown University constitutional law professor Peter Edelman says. It's impossible to judge the actual billable hours of lawyers who work for AG offices because they are on salary. Edelman figures that if McCollum has 6 FL lawyers in his office who are paid a $100K salary, working the equivalent of six months over two years, that could total $300K worth of work without factoring in any other expenses like travel. At the end of a two-year lawsuit, each AG office that joins the suit could spend $500K to $1M without paying for outside counsel, Edelman says. Multiply that figure by the number of states using their own lawyers, and the nationwide price tag could get hefty. If the case goes to trial, the legal costs would get exponentially higher.

But Harvard University professor Charles Fried says that pure legal argument isn't expensive, and he doubts there could ever be a full trial.

After bombarding a top rival with shots at his record and at his association with a professor accused of involvement in a terrorist network, ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) has brought the CA SEN primary back to a dead heat, a new survey from the Golden State shows.

The poll, conducted by the Public Policy Institute of CA, surveyed 1,102 likely voters between Mar. 9-16 for a margin of error of +/- 3%. Among that sample, 410 said they were likely to vote in the GOP primary, for a margin of error of +/- 5%. Fiorina, ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R) and Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R) were tested against Sen. Barbara Boxer (D).

Primary Election Matchup
Fiorina         24
Campbell        23
DeVore           8


General Election Matchups
Campbell        44        Boxer           44
Boxer           43        Fiorina         43
Boxer           46
DeVore          40

It is the second poll in a week that shows Boxer having trouble with her GOP rivals. A Field Poll released last week, but conducted over most of the same dates, shows nearly identical results -- Boxer in statistical dead heats with both Campbell and Fiorina.

If GOPers are to win back the Senate, they need to compete in states like CA. Boxer will be a well-funded candidate against any challenger who emerges from the June 8 primary.

Fiorina was the clear front-runner over DeVore until Campbell jumped into the race earlier this year. Fiorina has spent significant time and resources bashing Campbell's record, both in Congress and the state legislature, and she's questioned Campbell's commitment to Israel. Rival GOPers have also focused on Campbell's support for Sami Al-Arian, a former professor who pled guilty to conspiracy charges for assistance he gave to a Palestinian organization designated as a terrorist network by the State Dept.

Those hits on Campbell may be working. Most polls so far have shown Campbell leading the primary field.

MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) has pro-life credentials, and he's showing them off: The WH'12 contender gave a socially conservative audience at Wednesday's Susan B. Anthony's List annual gala red meat by touting a law he signed in one of the bluest states in the nation in the first year of his tenure.

It's the latest example of Pawlenty's focus on his record on the stump, something unique among potential WH'12 candidates. While ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney has distanced himself from signature health care legislation he passed while in office and ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee's fee increases are still unpopular with the fiscal conservative crowd, Pawlenty has embraced what he's been able to accomplish even with Dem majorities in the state legislature.

For pro-life GOPers attending the Susan B. Anthony dinner, devastated by Sunday's passage of the health care bill and revved up by what they see as an unenforceable executive order to prohibit the federal funding of abortions, Pawlenty was a force with promise. The law he plugged requires MN women to be supplied with medical risks tied to abortions, available benefits and child support payments, and a description of the procedure 24 hours in advance of it as a way to dissuade them from going through with it.

For Pawlenty, who lacks the national stature of Romney and Huckabee, both of whom ran in '08, a focus on the base is essential at this early stage. He is little-known around the country, and though he's made a few high-profile trips to IA and NH, he has little of the infrastructure or the following of some of his potential WH'12 rivals.

That has made him more aggressive as he explores the idea of running for the WH. Romney has avoided some controversial stands until the outcome is a foregone conclusion; he did not get involved in the NY-23 race until near the end, while Pawlenty jumped in to endorse the Conservative Party candidate over the GOP nominee, for example.

Pawlenty agrees with Dems who say the '10 elections will set up a "clear choice" for voters. Panning "Obamacare," the MN GOV said the "reality" of the passed law is that federal funding of abortions will emerge, and that the group's values are under more fire than at any other time in history since Roe v. Wade was decided.

He went on to needle the bogeyman of the cycle: "Life is not given to us by Washington, D.C."

Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), who preceded Pawlenty on stage and accepted the group's award for being a distinguished leader, pushed the same point and went further to use it as a rallying cry to unify and re-energize the pro-life movement against Dems.

"I'm proud to say my state is the state of Michele Bachmann," Pawlenty said.

Pres. Obama is far ahead of most of his potential GOP rivals, according to a new survey, but he would face a tough contest from ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R), who has gained ground on the incumbent in the last 7 months.

The Clarus Research Group, a non-partisan polling firm, surveyed 1,050 registered voters between Mar. 17-20 for a margin of error of +/- 3%. Obama was tested against Romney, ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R), ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich (R), ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) and ex-FL Gov. Jeb Bush. The trendline is from Clarus's Aug. '09 survey.

GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUPS
Obama        45% (-2)       Obama        52% (-1)
Romney       41  (+3)       Palin        34  (+0)

Obama        48  (-4)       Obama        47  (-1)
Gingrich     36  (+2)       Huckabee     39  (+1)
Obama        49  (no trend)
Bush         37

Romney is the clear leader of the GOP field. He holds support from 29% of the 415 GOPers and GOP leaners included in the poll, 10 points ahead of Huckabee and 11 points up on Palin. Gingrich clocks in at 13% with Bush at 8%. Sen. John Thune (R-SD) and IN Gov. Mitch Daniels each earn 1%.

GOPers also see Romney as one of the party's top spokespeople. When asked to name the party's major spokesperson, 14% settled on Romney while 14% came up with Sen. John McCain (R-AZ). Gingrich finished at 10%, just ahead of conservative talkers Glenn Beck and Rush Limbaugh, at 9%.

Meanwhile, in the current toxic political environment, most Americans would at least consider an independent candidate in '12. A quarter of voters said they would definitely consider a third-party contender, while 42% said they would probably consider voting against both Dems and GOPers.

"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with the violence over health care reform.

The violence surrounding the health care vote dominated TV coverage last night.

House Maj. Whip James Clyburn made the TV rounds 3/24 p.m.

Clyburn: "I think that one of the things we have to be very, very careful of in our society is that we don't ruin the possibilities of us operating the civil manner. I think that when you see people on the floor, as we saw, cheering those people who are up in the
balcony jeering, there's something wrong with that. It violates the decorum of the House, but it also helps to incite people."

Clyburn, on the Tea Partiers: "I believe we know that they came here to try to intimidate, try to stop this vote. They had to know that we were not going to be intimidated. I hope they know that."

More Clyburn, on the angry protesters: "They need to stop this, because, I can tell you, I have seen how these things escalate. People out there in the streets get their signals or what they think are their signals from the people in positions like we hold. And, so, if we don't disown that and go get our people to move beyond that, if we participate in it, either from the balcony or on the floor of the House, you are aiding and abetting this kind of terrorism, really" (MSNBC, 3/24).

After the jump, more from Clyburn, and a newsmaker interview with Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Good Wednesday morning. Everyone has their eyes on tonight's Cornell-UK matchup, but we're making the prediction now: Tonight, the Washington Huskies have the better shot at the upset over the West Virginia Mountineers.

Here's Thursday's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make headlines today:

THE FRINGE RIGHT: Following attacks on district offices of Reps. Louise Slaughter (D-NY) and Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ) and an FBI investigation into an incident involving a gas line at the home of Rep. Tom Perriello's (D-VA) brother, Dems met with Capitol Police yesterday to discuss safety in the wake of this weekend's health care vote, our colleague Chris Good reports this morning.

At least 10 members of Congress are receiving extra protection from law enforcement officials, thanks to a level of anger that goes beyond what we've seen in the past several years (The worst incident we could immediately recall was dog leavings left at the office of then-Rep. Marilyn Musgrave by a constituent angry over the Iraq war, though members have received death threats over other issues as well). And House Maj. Leader Steny Hoyer is worried for his members' safety.

House GOPers have been quick to condemn the relatively small extremist fringe. "Violence and threats are unacceptable. That's not the American way," House Min. Leader John Boehner said yesterday. But the inappropriate actions of the few are a real concern for the many on the right -- especially those with electoral ambitions this year. GOPers have trod carefully to avoid being lumped in with those who make them look bad, from birthers to truthers to extremists. They will have to stay vigilant; after all, the press will eat up any ominous threats, and, even though it's not entirely fair, GOPers will be asked to defend themselves or condemn the actions at every turn.

ALAN FRUMIN: The Senate parliamentarian has officially made his mark on health care legislation. Frumin was at work late last night, as was the upper chamber, debating GOP amendments to a reconciliation bill that provides fixes to the new health care reform law. And GOPers scored their first 2 wins after Frumin ruled minor provisions of the fix bill cannot be included in the final product.

That means the legislation will head back to the House for final, final passage (should we add another "final" in there?). It's not likely to be more than a speed bump for Dems -- the reconciliation bill passed with 220 votes, compared with 219 for the health care bill. And the process could be finished today; Dems hope to vote on final passage after 2 p.m. today, and if the House takes up the fixes to the fixes, they could be done with health care tonight.

As cable TV nets broadcast threats and angry voicemails sent to House Dems who backed health care reform, we offer this unsolicited piece of advice to cong. GOP leaders: Invite your Dem counterparts to hold a joint press conf. where you all condemn the threats. Issuing statements won't cut it.

Doing so is perhaps the only way to separate the GOP from the violent crazies. Not doing so could undermine the momentum they've built over the past year.

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is releasing his first TV ad of the FL SEN race, a 30-second spot that also marks Crist's first direct ad attacking his primary rival, ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R).

The new ad features quotes from a number of hard-hitting media reports investigating Rubio's lobbying history and spending habits, including Rubio's failure to report thousands of dollars in PAC expenditures and his use of a FL GOP credit card for personal expenses. Crist's previous three ads were all radio spots that made no mention of Rubio and sought to define Crist as a "common-sense" fiscal conservative.

Interestingly, the new spot also highlights reports hailing Rubio, a rising star among conservatives, as "the Republican Obama" -- an attempt by Crist to turn the Obama card against his rival. Crist has been hammered by Rubio for his support of Obama's stimulus package.

Full script, of the ad, "Different," after the jump.

Ex-VP Dick Cheney has endorsed Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) in the race to replace retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY), the latest example of the former VP getting involved in current politics.

In a statement, Cheney cited Grayson's national security credentials, implying that ophthalmologist Rand Paul's (R) views on matters of safety are unwise and irresponsible.

"The challenges posed by radical Islam and Al Qaeda are real and will be an on-going threat to our domestic security for years to come," Cheney said. "We need Senators who truly understand this and who will work to strengthen our commitment to a strong national defense and to whom this is not just a political game."

Grayson has spent time on the campaign trail slamming Paul for comments the political novice has made about the war in Afghanistan and about closing the prison at Guantanamo Bay. Grayson has launched several ads during the campaign slamming what he calls Paul's "strange ideas."

"Trey Grayson knows we must stay on offense in the fight against terrorism by keeping the terrorist detention facility at Guantanamo Bay open and trying terrorist suspects using military tribunals, supporting the troop surges in Iraq and Afghanistan, and maintaining the Patriot Act so we can effectively monitor the activities of terrorists abroad," Cheney added.

It is the second time Cheney has weighed into a race since leaving the WH. Last year, he endorsed Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R) in her primary bid against Gov. Rick Perry (R). Hutchison lost that race earlier this month.

Then again, former presidents at VPs getting involved in campaigns is becoming more common. Bill Clinton has been an active backer of Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR); George W. Bush is endorsing an old friend in a TX state Senate race; and ex-VP Al Gore has endorsed everyone from Howard Dean's WH'04 bid to ex-OR Sec/State Bill Bradbury's (D) GOV bid this year.

Fighting back against declining poll numbers and approval ratings among conservatives, FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is launching a new radio spot touting his conservative credentials.

It's the first ad Crist has run since Oct., and the first publicly noticeable expenditure of Crist's massive warchest in months.

Though he holds a huge financial lead over rival/ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), Crist has yet to spend any money on paid advertising, a decision some believe is allowing Rubio to define the debate. And while a radio ad in itself -- especially one that doesn't mention the more popular Rubio -- isn't going to alter the debate, it's an indication that the campaign has some life.

Crist's new 60-second radio ad touts his record as a fiscal conservative, omitting Rubio's name but blasting DC Dems.

Full script of the ad, "Conservative", after the jump.

Hotline executive editor John Mercurio takes a look at the GOP's health care reform repeal move, and why Dems are eager to have that fight:

Republicans confidently predict their drive to repeal health care reform will motivate conservatives, energize donors and drive voters to the polls this fall. The strategy makes some sense: Coming off a stinging defeat, it's an effective way to channel their energies against a new law the public hasn't fully embraced.

But if Republicans are right, why are Democrats more aggressively pushing the storyline this week? Because apparently they welcome the newest chapter of this yearlong debate: a specific discussion of exactly what Republican health care reform looks like.

...

[A] clear divide is brewing between Republicans who back the full repeal sought by the conservative Club for Growth and those who prefer a more nuanced plan that would retain some of the law's more popular elements. Congressional Republicans readily acknowledge their hope to raise loads of campaign money from donors who oppose the new law, but Texas Rep. Pete Sessions, the National Republican Congressional Committee chairman, won't go as far as many of his GOP House candidates on the issue. "Do I think this vote helped us with raising money? Yes I do.... [But] I would be hard pressed to say repeal the whole thing," he told the Daily Caller on Sunday night.

...

In fact, it's Sessions' Democratic counterpart who speaks more unequivocally about the GOP's repeal effort.

"I don't often quote George W. Bush... but bring it on," said Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee Chair Chris Van Hollen.

In an interview Tuesday, the Marylander said his party will portray the GOP's repeal effort as a campaign against provisions of the law that take effect immediately and are widely popular with voters, including small-business tax credits and provisions against denying insurance to children with pre-existing conditions.

"People will begin to see the benefits. If [Republicans] push 'repeal,' they'll be siding with the insurance industry against consumers and patients who receive protections and benefits from this legislation," Van Hollen said. "They say 'repeal it,' but for the eight years that Bush was in the White House, they didn't do anything. If people really want to turn back the clock... they can choose Republicans. But I don't think that's the future most Americans want."

Read the full column here.

Ex-Bush admin official Dan Senor (R) will not run against Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), becoming the latest GOPer to turn down the opportunity to take on the appointed Dem.

"Over the past few weeks, I took a very serious look at running for the Senate seat in New York," Senor said in a statement emailed to reporters. "I ultimately decided this wasn't the right time in my family and business life for me to run."

Senor is the latest in a long, and growing, line of possible GOP candidates who have publicly considered challenging Gillibrand only to eventually take a pass. Prominent GOPers like Rep. Peter King and ex-Rep. Susan Molinari
took a pass, and even publisher Mort Zuckerman considered the race before saying no.

Dems, too, have considered challenging Gillibrand. Ex-Rep. Harold Ford and Reps. Steve Israel and Carolyn Maloney all considered running against the upstate incumbent before backing off.

Senor said he would stay involved, and that GOPers could beat Gillibrand. But even had he made the race, he would have faced an uphill battle. NYers have not elected a GOPer statewide since '02, and the party hasn't elected a senator since '92.

"There are a number of terrific opportunities for Republicans in 2010 -- including in this Senate race -- and I will lend a hand wherever I can be helpful," said Senor, who served as a top official in Iraq during George W. Bush's admin.

IN Dems will meet May 15 to formally nominate Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) for the Senate seat being vacated by Sen. Evan Bayh (D), the party announced late yesterday.

State party chair Dan Parker will file the required paperwork with the state's elections division and send notice to central committee members on May 5. Any candidates who want to be considered must file paperwork with the elections office and the state party between May 5 and May 12.

After Bayh's surprise retirement announcement last month, Dems quickly coalesced around Ellsworth, the 2-term incumbent in the state's relatively conservative 8th district. On Tuesday, Bayh said he would donate $1M, earmarked for aiding Ellsworth's campaign, to the state party.

GOPers fighting over the seat will have decided on a nominee by the time Ellsworth is expected to formally take on the party mantle. Ex-Sen. Dan Coats, ex-Rep. John Hostettler and state Sen. Marlin Stutzman are all vying for the GOP nod; the primary is May 4.

NV voters got a taste of the busy life in '08, when early caucuses brought leading WH contenders to the Silver State repeatedly. Now, they're getting a new flood of politicians rushing through McCarran Airport.

Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) will keynote the "Showdown in Searchlight," a rally hosted by a prominent Tea Party group, the Tea Party Express. Later, the caravan of Tea Partiers will head to Henderson for a speech from conservative activist Ann Coulter.

Searchlight, of course, is Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid's home town. But Reid won't be there -- he'll be in Las Vegas with NRA executive VP Wayne LaPierre. The 2 will open a shooting park, several thousand acres of space dedicated to shooting sports. The NRA endorsed Reid in '04, and it has already sent a glowing letter to its NV members as he seeks another term.

If Palin, Coulter and LaPierre are looking for something else to do that evening, they might want to avoid the Rio Hotel and Casino. Clark Co. Dems are holding their first annual Hope awards during the annual Jefferson-Jackson dinner, featuring ex-VP Al Gore as the keynote speaker.

Tickets to the event, which Reid will attend, cost anywhere from $150 to $10K.

Bonus points to anyone who snaps a photo of Palin and Gore running into each other at the airport. We're sure they have lots to talk about.

The NRCC's annual fundraising dinner at the National Building Museum last night pulled in $7M, the committee announced in a press release, but don't expect to see a lump sum or any especially big boost in next month's FEC reports.

That's because putting on a dinner -- headlined last night by Fox News star Sean Hannity -- takes months, not only to organize but to raise the money.

Members and PACs that purchased tables began sending in money way back in Nov., and they're not finished yet. Some of the money hasn't come in yet, and the party's money men are still looking to collect from delinquent members. As we wrote earlier this week, GOP members have been contributing more heavily to the committee, and the dinner is one reason transfers between candidate committees and the NRCC are up.

One reason members are slow to give: The March 31 fundraising deadline, when some members will want to show more impressive bank accounts before paying for their tables at the dinner early next month.

Reps. Fred Upton (R-MI) and Virginia Foxx (R-NC) spearheaded the dinner, and they get credit for raising more this year than the party did last year, when the NRCC pulled in $6M. Last year, LA Gov. Bobby Jindal (R), fresh off his response to the State of the Union address, keynoted the dinner.

But for all the kudos Upton and Foxx will get -- Upton himself raised $600K for the event, we're told -- don't expect to be able to find it all in the NRCC's fundraising reports. The money is all accounted for, but spread out over 5 or 6 months, it represents just another way the GOP raises money for House candidates.

Shot: MS state Rep. John Hines, 71 other lawmakers and 19 members of Gov. Haley Barbour's staff -- "though not the portly governor himself" -- have been working out in the first few months of the year to promote healthy living, the AP reports today.

Chaser: ""If you see I lose 40 pounds, you'll know I'm either running or got cancer." -- Barbour, joking to reporters in a Feb. roundtable.

Ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) spent $27.2M in her CA GOV bid from Jan. 1 to Mar. 17, according to a disclosure filed Monday, upping her total expenditures in the race to $46.6M since she joined in Feb. '09. More than $20M of Whitman's expenditures have been on TV and radio advertising, with 3 months to go before the primary.

Whitman, whose net worth is reported at over $1B, has now broken the record for campaign spending in CA (where self-funding big name candidates aren't all that rare) and is on pace to set a record among all self-funding candidates.

A few other factors that could end up making CA GOV the most expensive non-pres. election in history: Whitman has already put $40M into her camp, but now has just $4.5M CoH, so expect another big cash infusion soon. She has said she'll put up to $150M into her camp.

Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R), who is behind Whitman in the latest polls by 50 points, has contributed $19M to his camp, even though it hasn't made much difference. In any other race, that would be big money. Poizner reported spending $3.1M in the Jan. 1 to Mar. 17 period, bringing in just $104K, though he still has $14.9M CoH, mostly from his self-contribution.

Poizner says he's holding on to the bulk of his chest until June, when he'll deluge the airwaves with ads. But who knows how much cash Whitman will be pouring into ads by then.

Meanwhile, AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D) reported raising $9.8M during the fundraising period, while spending just $144K, leaving him with $14.1M CoH.

The big question remains, however, whether Whitman's huge investment will pay off. Plenty of previous big-spending self-funders have lost a lot more than just an election by putting so much cash into their own campaigns. After the jump, a look at some recent losing self-funders:

"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with Pres. Obama signing the health care bill into law.

Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) sat down with MSNBC's O'Donnell in an interview that aired on "Countdown" 3/23 p.m.

Dodd, on what the late Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA) would have said about health care being passed: "I think he had a great sense of history. And I think he would have reached back and talked about the fact that, we got Teddy Roosevelt, Franklin Roosevelt, Harry Truman, even Richard Nixon. ... So, I couldn't help but think of him sort of reaching back to all of
the battles, some won, some lost, the piecemeal efforts over the years."

Dodd, on getting health care back on the floor and moving: "You know, I'll tell you something. And I don't know if maybe I'll be the only person with this view. I actually think the election of Scott Brown helped Democrats, because all of a sudden, it wasn't 60-40, it was something less than that. I think it reinvigorated the party. Instead of relying on just producing the numbers, I think it caused us to step back and try to figure strategically how we were going to get this over the finish line" (MSNBC, 3/23).

After the jump, more on the new law, as well as GOP attempts to go against it.

Good Wednesday morning. VP Joe Biden thinks health care is a big bleeping deal. His remarks? Not such a bleeping deal. But GOP communicators who helped run against him last year are still frustrated that Biden's constant gaffes don't get more scrutiny.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter in politics today:

GOP LEADERSHIP: Yesterday morning, Pres. Obama signed health care legislation into law, even as GOPers ramped up their call to repeal the measure. Candidates and conservative incumbents led the charge, while leadership -- concerned about the political consequences of pledging to repeal even the popular parts of the bill -- held back.

That all changed when House Min. Leader John Boehner called for repeal in a press release and Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell told reporters he thinks "repeal and replace" will become the GOP's mantra going into the fall. Both signaled they favor full repeal; McConnell introduced Sen. Jim DeMint's (R-SC) legislation to roll back health care reform under a special Senate rule, while Boehner spokesman Michael Steel said Boehner favors a "repeal and start over" approach.

DeMint, who has been a thorn in the side of Senate GOP leadership, is showing no signs of dropping his push. "We need to make it a long-term objective," he said of repeal this morning on MSNBC. But even if the GOP has a great election cycle, they're not all on board just yet: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) told National Journal's Alexis Simendinger he isn't ready to jump on the GOP's repeal bandwagon just yet.

PUBLIC OPINION: Legislatively, a repeal movement isn't the most likely scenario. Most GOP senators are more on Grassley's side than DeMint. Politically, it may be untenable as well; a poll released yesterday show health care legislation has gotten a real bump, likely thanks to day-after stories describing what the bill will do for average Americans. Voters say passing the bill was a good thing, by a 49%-40% margin in the Gallup poll.

That doesn't mean public opinion is solidified in favor of the bill; far from it. Instead, the post-passage bump should serve as a warning to GOPers. While Dems know they have to sell their version of the bill -- in fact, they've been at it for weeks -- GOPers should recognize that the electorate does not yet embrace their vision of the legislation as a massive government takeover and a huge tax increase. If the GOP is to turn health care reform into a winning issue for them, they still have a sales job to do as well.

Like the Tea Party movement, which has some, but not all, GOPers on board, a push for full repeal could divide the GOP. A day after the Club for Growth pushed UT voters to caucus against an incumbent, will they end up attacking GOPers who aren't fully for repeal, playing to excited conservative public opinion at the expense of independents? And how will they feel about NRSC chair John Cornyn, who told HuffPo a full repeal call is "frankly a distraction." The GOP, he said, won't be into repeal of the "non-controversial stuff" like pre-existing conditions.

EX-FL HOUSE SPEAKER MARCO RUBIO: When we heard one of Rubio's former aides describing his cadre of state legislators as the "12 disciples," implicitly comparing Rubio himself to the Messiah, we got flashes of Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) "celebrity" ad featuring his then-rival Obama giving an address at the Brandunberg Gate. The idea of political celebrity worried the Obama camp, and it should be worrying the Rubio folks as well.

KY AG Jack Conway (D) is wading into the health care debate, announcing Tuesday he will not file a lawsuit against the federal government in trying to refuse the legislation.

"I do not intend to use my authority as Kentucky Attorney General to sign our Commonwealth onto a health care lawsuit against the federal government, because I will not waste taxpayer dollars on a political stunt," Conway said in a statement provided to Hotline OnCall.

Earlier today, Sec/State Trey Grayson blasted Dems in Congress for passing health care, "despite overwhelming and bipartisan opposition."

Grayson continued, "Fortunately, there is still an opportunity to prevent this intrusion into our lives as more than a dozen states have declared their intent to challenge this law in court. Today I call on Kentucky Attorney General Jack Conway to join in this effort and file suit against the federal government for the unconstitutional overreach of its authority with the passage of this health care legislation."

"Trey Grayson's gimmick may be good 'tea party' politics, but it's based on questionable legal principles," Conway said.

Health care is bleeding into the race to replace Sen. Jim Bunning (R) in a big way -- Grayson's primary opponent, Rand Paul (R), raised $100,000 in 12 hours today as a response to the passage of health care.

It's also a big player in Conway's Dem primary against LG Daniel Mongiardo, and it's an issue Conway believes he needs to overtake Mongiardo in state polling. Conway has more money in the bank than Mongiardo and was expected to be the nominee, but until now he hasn't engaged Mongiardo as forcefully as he is over health care.

Mongiardo has said he would have voted against the Senate bill but for the House bill that passed in November. He also is well-informed on the issue as a doctor, and he says frequently that if elected, he'd be the only Dem doctor in the Senate.

Conway needled him today: "I find it ironic that Daniel Mongiardo -- who would have voted against health care reform and believes we should 'stop and start over' -- would choose to align himself with Trey Grayson, Rand Paul and the right-wing extremists who are following Mitch McConnell's lead in opposing progress on health care. This is an historic moment, and as a Democrat, I am proud to stand up to those who prey on voters' fears, rather than appeal to their hopes."

The first leg of the fiercely-contested UT SEN primary is now underway, as thousands of GOPers flock to their local precinct caucuses tonight.

At stake are approx. 3.5K delegate spots, all of whom will eventually meet at the state GOP convention May 8 to (possibly) nominate a Senate candidate. There will potentially be 3 rounds of voting at the state GOP convo. The first round will narrow the field to the top 3 candidates. The second round will winnow it down from 3 to 2 contestants, and the final vote will be a head-to-head matchup. If a candidate can win 60% in any round, that person is declared the party's nominee. If no one achieves that level of support, the final two candidates will proceed to the 6/22 primary.

Traditionally, about 40K UT voters would normally participate in caucuses tonight, but that number is likely to swell. "My guess is that we're going to have a bigger turnout at the caucuses than we've ever had. People are mad at the Democrats and there's a spirited Senate contest."

That SEN race pits Sen. Bob Bennett (R) against a field of conservative challengers. The Club for Growth, angry with Bennett for proposing a health care reform bill along with Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR), is running ads against Bennett; still, they have not settled on an alternative to the incumbent.

By far, Bennett's most important goal will be to win at least 40% of the convention vote in order to appear on the primary ballot. While Bennett will likely win a plurality of delegates in today's caucuses, it's nearly certain he won't win a majority. One expert estimates he might win around 35% of delegates, which would probably be enough to give him the 40% vote he needs on the day of the GOP convention. But if Bennett wins fewer than 30% of delegates tonight, he might be in trouble next month.

Although there would certainly be warning signs for Bennett in any plurality win tonight, it would be overly simplistic to assume that the rest of the field will eventually unite into a combined, monolithic "anyone but Bennett" vote.

As convention day approaches, it would not be unusual for other candidates to start sniping at one another in an effort to emerge as Bennett's main challenger. And if things get too nasty, it's not impossible that delegates supporting a candidate eliminated in an earlier round of balloting might end up supporting Bennett in the final poll.

In fact, the GOP observer notes that '02/'04 UT-02 candidate/venture capitalist Tim Bridgewater's (R) camp has done a good job soliciting other candidates' supporters by saying, "I want to be your second choice." Meanwhile, there's been some early sparring between ex-Gov. Jon Huntsman gen. counsel Mike Lee (R) and WebsTarget marketing VP Cherilyn Eagar (R).

Rep. Randy Neugebauer (R-TX) apologized on 3/22 for shouting "it's a baby killer" at Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) during the 3/21 health care debate, but he is hoping to use the incident to pull in new campaign cash.

Neugebauer has attempted to rally pro-life supporters to his cause, as he added a video to his campaign website late yesterday explaining his controversial remarks. A "Donate Today" button stands out prominently beneath the video.

In the video, Neugebauer attacked both the health care legislation and the process with which Dems cobbled together a majority. "Not only did we see the government take over your health care, but we saw the lives of unborn children used as a bargaining chip to somehow get the needed votes to pass this legislation," Neugebauer said. "I spoke very passionately because I believe what was going on is not right."

But Neugebauer's opponent, businessman Andy Wilson (D), told Hotline OnCall the move was a "contrived, calculated attempt to raise funds."

"I think the Neugebauer campaign looked at what [Rep.] Joe Wilson (R-SC) was able to do ... and are attempting to duplicate it," Wilson said. The SC GOPer apologized for yelling "you lie" during Pres. Obama's address to Congress in Sept. In the weeks following that event, he and his Dem opponent were able to galvanize national support for their campaigns, raising well over $1M each.

Wilson responded to Neugebauer's comments with his own fundraising appeal on 3/22. "The response to Congressman Randy Neugebauer's outburst on the House floor during Sunday's debate on health care reform has been overwhelming," Wilson wrote. "People from all across the country are outraged at Mr. Neugebauer's rude and senseless remark." Underneath his comments, he added his own button to make a donation.

But Neugebauer's remarks haven't yet turned in to a Joe Wilson-sized gold mine for Andy Wilson, as he said his camp has raised about $5K since adding the statement on 3/22.

That's likely because Neugebauer sits in a very safe seat, and Wilson is running an underdog campaign. Sen. John McCain took 72% in this Abilene-based CD, and Neugebauer has never taken less than 58% in any re-election; He took 72% in '08.

Wilson acknowledges the uphill nature of the race. "We're going to have to have some strokes of luck go our way. Is this the stroke of luck to put us ahead? I don't know."

Sen. Evan Bayh (D) announced today that he has contributed $1M of his campaign cash to help Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) succeed him in the Senate.

"This is a million dollar vote of confidence in Brad Ellsworth and Indiana Democrats," said Bayh. "Though I am leaving the Senate at the end of my term, I am determined to help Brad Ellsworth and the 2010 Democratic ticket with the financial resources they need to run a successful campaign."

The contribution is "the largest donation ever by an individual not on the ballot," according to a press release from the IN Dems.

"This unprecedented contribution will be put to good use in electing Brad Ellsworth ... and in helping Democrats from the top of the ticket on down," said IN Dem Chair Dan Parker.

The decision follows weeks of speculation over what Bayh would do with his almost $13M campaign warchest following his Feb. announcement that he would not run for re-election.

Early indications are that the general election campaign will be a visible expensive race, as national GOPers and Dems have been hitting Ellsworth and ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R), the two frontrunners in the race. Bayh has not yet announced what will happen to the remainder of his cash, which could be donated to the DSCC, among other options.

GOPers are leaping out front of the health care debate this week, pledging their support for efforts to repeal legislation Dems enacted over the weekend. Here's a look at the major contenders in each state and what they've said (Note: "Club" means the candidate has signed the Club for Growth's pledge to repeal the bill):

------------------------------------------------------------
Arizona
McCAIN (R) Repeal -- "I believe we must repeal this bill immediately."
Hayworth (R) Club -- "I support legal challenges to the health care bill's enforcement as well as legislative efforts toward its repeal."
------------------------------------------------------------
Arkansas
Baker (R) Club -- "As a U.S. Senator, I will work to repeal a government takeover of health care and offer solutions to replace it with common sense, quality, affordable health care."
Boozman (R) Club -- "This bill still spends an unimaginable amount of money, raises new taxes and cuts Medicare programs without doing anything to contain costs. No matter how you look at this it's not a good deal for America."
Holt (R) Club -- "This fight will not end until we restore constitutional government and rid ourselves of the vermin that are destroying liberty and freedom in America."
Hendren (R) "The people and the constitution lost! Big money, special interests, and the insiders have ignored US, again! It's time for change from US!"
Reynolds (R) Club -- "WE MUST FIGHT THIS: When I replace Blanche in the US Senate I will work to repeal this legislation
Ramey (R) Club -- "This level of corruption and vote buying cannot be ignored by the people."
Coleman (R) Club -- "I have pledged to work to repeal this bill and I will keep my pledge."
Alexander (R) Club
------------------------------------------------------------
California
Fiorina (R) Club -- "I will do everything in my power to repeal this government takeover and replace it with specific health care reforms that we know from experience work and that have bipartisan support."
DeVore (R) Club -- "I do not agree with President Obama's 'goals.' I am pledged to overturn what he's done today."
Campbell (R) -- "I encourage that those (state) challenges go forward... If the U.S. Supreme Court does strike down this health care law, then it is imperative that it strike down the entire law, not just the individual mandate."
------------------------------------------------------------
Colorado
Norton (R) Repeal -- "Our country must elect leaders this November who will work to repeal ObamaCare and bring real reform to our healthcare system."
Buck (R) Club
------------------------------------------------------------
Connecticut
Simmons (R) "Repeal it" -- Called on AG Blumenthal to join AG lawsuit
McMahon (R) Repeal -- "Stand up and fight with me to repeal this bill and restore the American free enterprise system." -- Called on AG Blumenthal to join AG lawsuit
Schiff (R) Club
------------------------------------------------------------
Delaware
Castle (R)
O'Donnell (R) Club
------------------------------------------------------------
Florida
Crist (R) Repeal -- "I fully support Attorney General Bill McCollum's efforts to challenge the Constitutionality of a provision in the bill that mandates all Americans to purchase health insurance."
Rubio (R) Club -- "I reiterate my strong support for repealing it when I get to Washington and offering alternative reforms to make health care more accessible and affordable."

After the jump, responses from IL through WI.

SEIU pres. Andy Stern is promising to challenge Dems who voted against health care legislation, accusing them of betraying the voters who elected them in the first place.

"We have already said that we don't want to have two candidates representing the insurance industry on the ballot -- whether that means [challenging them in] primaries or whether that means finding candidates to run as independents," Stern said in an interview with National Journal's Kirk Victor. "People had a chance to make a big choice and -- particularly those that promised our members where they stood and then betrayed them, is where we feel accountability belongs."

Stern pointed to Reps. Michael McMahon (D-NY), Larry Kissell (D-NC) and Michael Arcuri (D-NY), 3 members who voted against the bill on Sunday. McMahon and Kissell voted against the House version in Nov.; Arcuri switched his vote after voting in favor of the bill the first time around.

"We worked our heart out in very difficult races. We were able to get them elected. Their moment came to do what our members wanted, which was only to do what was right for the country, and they chose to be with insurance industry," Stern said.

And though polls show Dems in perilous political straits, Stern, interviewed on Sunday, said Dems are poised to retake momentum.

"It is not that Republicans are actually showing up more -- it is Democrats are showing up less. If we can pass health care reform and then keep on doing what people want, which is fight the good fight, Republicans will be shocked by how this [momentum] switches," he said.

Read the full interview here.

Updated with Boehner's statement

Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell and House Min. Leader John Boehner both signaled support for at least some part of a GOP-led move to repeal health care legislation today, suggesting the GOP will run on the issue in the fall campaign.

"I can tell you with the campaign that will continue with the American people, I think the slogan will be 'Repeal and Replace,'" McConnell told reporters after a weekly lunch with fellow members of the GOP Conference.

In a statement following Pres. Obama's bill signing today, Boehner added: "Republicans will continue to stand on principle, hold President Obama accountable for his promises, and fight to repeal this government takeover of health care so we can start over on common-sense reforms that lower costs for families and small businesses."

They are the first 2 members of GOP leadership to hint at embracing a repeal move. Until today, GOPers have been hesitant to support such a move, worrying Dems will tag them for opposing the more popular parts of the bill, and several members of House leadership have suggested a partial repeal while keeping some more popular sections of the bill intact.

Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) has introduced a measure to repeal health care legislation. In the House, Reps. Michele Bachmann (R-MN), Steve King (R-IA), Bob Inglis (R-SC) and Todd Tiahrt (R-KS) have introduced a similar bill aimed at reversing the new law.

McConnell introduced DeMint's bill under a Senate rule that allows it to immediately be placed on the upper chamber's calendar.

In a speech on the Senate floor, McConnell cited Dems' ebullient mood at the bill-signing ceremony today at the WH. He said Dems' moment of celebration won't last long.

"The fact is, this bill spends $2.6 trillion dollars at a time of near double digit inflation while putting the real problem off for another day. It kicks the can down the road," McConnell said on the floor. "So Democrats here in Washington can celebrate all they want. But that celebration is going to be short-lived."

Asked after his meeting with fellow Conference members, McConnell declined to describe what sorts of amendments his party will offer on the floor this week. The Senate begins debating the reconciliation bill the House passed late Sunday evening.

Both parties are pitching health care to their bases in an effort to rake in big money, and some candidates are pulling in the big bucks.

In just 12 hours, ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) has pulled in $100K, campaign manager David Adams said. The campaign has picked up steam since health care passed and activists on their side have been chipping in heavily since midnight.

Paul is running ahead in the race for the GOP nomination to replace retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY). But he's not the only one raising money off the health care measure, which Pres. Obama signed into law this morning.

Businessman Jim Renacci (R) has raised $50K in the last 48 hours for his challenge to Rep. John Boccieri (D-OH), according to the NRCC. State Rep. Cory Gardner (R) has raised $75K since his foe, Rep. Betsy Markey (D-CO), said she would vote in favor of the bill, the NRCC said.

Meanwhile, the RNC has raised more than $1M since Sunday in a campaign aimed at forcing House Speaker Nancy Pelosi into retirement. The RNC originally hoped to raise $400K over a 40-hour period; now, they will extend the fundraising drive over another 24 hours.

It's not only GOPers who have raised money off the health care debate. The DCCC is trying to raise $1M over the next few days, money the committee says it needs to fight back against GOP attacks.

Potentially vulnerable Dems like Reps. Scott Murphy (D-NY) and Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ) have embraced the bill in an effort to stock their own re-election accounts.

"I know that this was one of the most important votes that I will ever take. Not only will this legislation lower health care costs, improve quality and access and crack down on the insurance industry, it is also the largest deficit-reduction package in a decade," Kirkpatrick wrote in her pitch. "I also know that taking a stand for my constituents means that I will be under constant attack from the right wing from now until November."

"My extremist opponents, who are so committed to partisan warfare that they cannot see any of the benefits of this bill, are already unleashing a barrage of smears and falsehoods against me because of my vote - and much worse is coming. We need to have the resources to fight back against these attacks right away," Kirkpatrick added.

Candidates are shedding their affiliations with the 2 major parties in New England, Hotline editor Amy Walter writes today, a sign that even politicians are sick of the broken system.

It's not just voters who say they're fed up with partisan politics. Former activists and elected officials are eschewing their party label, too. But instead of dropping out of politics altogether, some have decided to pick up the independent mantle as a way to stay involved.

Three of them -- former Democrats Eliot Cutler and Tim Cahill and former Republican Lincoln Chafee -- are mounting serious third-party bids for governor in Maine, Massachusetts and Rhode Island, respectively.

...

All three shed their labels not as an ideological protest, but in reaction to partisan gridlock and status quo showboating. They share something else in common as well: Their media consultant, former Gore and Kerry campaign adviser Tad Devine.

Devine's decision to work for all three of these candidates stems from the many relationships the Rhode Island native has cultivated over the last 30 years in politics. Even so, he could not have predicted that just four years after helping to defeat Chafee, he would be helping the former senator beat a Democrat -- and a Republican -- in the open gubernatorial contest.

...

What unites all these candidates, Devine says, is a commitment to "pragmatic politics." In a year in which voters are looking for "honest leaders" who are willing to make "tough decisions," these three are free to run without the constraints of interest group demands and party orthodoxy. All three are gambling that this is the year voters want to be treated as adults who can hear the unvarnished truth instead of sugar-coated pabulum.

Read the whole article here.

The special election to replace Rep. Nathan Deal (R-GA) will take place on Apr. 27, GA Gov. Sonny Perdue (R) announced late Monday.

Deal announced his resignation earlier this month in order to focus on his GA GOV bid. Under pressure from House GOP leaders, Deal agreed to stick around until health care legislation was decided. His resignation became official late Sunday, just an hour after the legislation passed.

Deal's 9th district, in the northwest corner of the state, borders AL, TN and NC. It is the most conservative district in the state -- Pres. Obama won just 24% there -- and GOPers are likely to easily hold on.

Leading contenders to keep the seat include state Sen. Lee Hawkins (R) and state Reps. Tom Graves (R) and Bobby Reese (R). Hawkins has $288K in the bank, while Graves has $228K CoH, according to the latest FEC reports. Reese had not filed as of the end of the year. Cardiologist Chris Cates (R) has loaned himself $200K.

Only one Dem -- Hall Co. Dem chair Mike Freeman (D) -- has said he will run.

Every candidate will run in the Apr. 27 special election. If no candidate receives 50% of the vote, the top 2 contenders will face off in a May 18 runoff.

Deal's is one of 5 vacant House seats at the moment. Dems are favored to keep ex-Rep. Robert Wexler's (D) Palm Beach Co. seat on Apr. 13. PA officials have picked May 18 to fill the vacancy left by Rep. John Murtha's (D) death. Rep. Neil Abercrombie's (D-HI) seat will be decided on May 22.

NY Gov. David Paterson (D) has said he will set a date for a special election to replace ex-Rep. Eric Massa (D), but NY law could allow him to leave the seat vacant until Nov.

State Sen. Tom Bakk (D) announced on Saturday he would not continue his bid in the crowded race in the race to succeed Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), leaving a wide-open race he admitted he had little chance of winning.

Bakk's departure may not ultimately affect the race in a dramatic manner, as he was trailing DFL front-runners Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak (D) and state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D), but in what is shaping up to be a close race, the direction his support shifts may make a difference in the party endorsement process that no one is taking for granted.

On Apr. 23-25, the MN DFL will hold a statewide convention where over 1,300 delegates (including 1,200 elected delegates) will get together to decide on an endorsement in the race. A candidate must get 60% of the vote at the convention to clinch the nod. If no one hits the 60% threshold on the first ballot, subsequent balloting takes place, according to DFL party rules.

"I've decided to continue to focus my energies on the most immediate needs of the state -- namely balancing the state budget in as fair and sensible a way as possible and putting in place policies that will restart our stalled economy," Bakk said. "Our campaign had the delegates to be a factor at the convention, but after much reflection I did not think we could reach the 60% needed for endorsement."

Rybak, who recently picked up the endorsement of ex-VT Gov./ex-DNC Chair Howard Dean, and Kelliher garnered the most support during the Feb. 2 precinct caucus straw poll -- but neither ran away from the field, as they each grabbed a little over 20% of the vote.

Further complicating matters on the Dem side is the presence of ex-Sen. Mark Dayton (D), who has strong name recognition in MN as a former statewide officeholder, and has elected to forego the party endorsement process to run in the Aug. 10 primary regardless of who the party endorses. Atty/ex-state House Min. Leader Matt Entenza (D) has also said he will run in the primary, even if he doesn't get the party's official endorsement.

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, state Rep./ex-state House Min. Leader Marty Seifert (R) and state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) have separated themselves from the rest of the field, in what looks to be a two-way race (Seifert topped Emmer by a 50%-39% margin in the Feb. precinct caucuses, with no other candidate coming close). Emmer and Seifert have agreed to abide by the party's endorsement process. The GOP state convention will be held Apr. 29th-May 1.

Health care legislation will be signed into law today, but the legal challenges are just beginning. A total of 13 states are expected to file a lawsuit today challenging the constitutionality of the bill.

The AGs in those states -- all GOPers -- have long opposed the legislation. Last fall, a dozen AGs wrote a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi questioning the constitutionality of the bill, and now that it's passed they will take their challenge to court.

Public polls show the health care bill is still unpopular among voters, and therefore a benefit to the GOP. And several of the AGs who will join the lawsuit are themselves seeking higher office this year.

MI's Mike Cox (R), FL's Bill McCollum (R), PA's Tom Corbett (R) and SC's Henry McMaster (R) are all running for open GOV seats. WA's Rob McKenna (R), TX's Greg Abbott (R), UT's Mark Shurtleff (R) and CO's John Suthers (R) are widely seen as future candidates for other offices.

AGs in VA, NE, AL, ND and SD have also joined the suit. AK AG Dan Sullivan, who serves at the pleasure of Gov. Sean Parnell (R), and IN AG Greg Zoeller are reviewing the legislation. So is OK AG Drew Edmondson (D), the lone Dem to sign on to the letter to Pelosi and a candidate for his state's open GOV seat.

Meanwhile, potential WH contenders have moved to encourage their top lawyers to join the suit. MS Gov. Haley Barbour (R) threatened to file his own suit if the state AG didn't file one. LA Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) and MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) have asked their Dem AGs to join the suit.

House GOP aides and the non-partisan Congressional Research Service believe health care legislation passed this week requires lawmakers to enroll in government-run insurance programs -- while exempting leadership staffers, many of whom were instrumental in crafting the bill.

Top staffers buzzed yesterday on an off-the-record Capitol Hill list-serv, citing the part of the mammoth legislation that deals with members of Congress. The federal government can only make available to members and their official staffs health plans created by the bill or offered through an exchange.

But a member's staff, in a subsection of the bill, is defined as "full-time and part-time employees employed by the official office of a Member of Congress, whether in Washington, DC or outside of Washington, DC." CRS has interpreted that clause to mean the bill applies only to a personal office, not to committee staff or leadership staff.

CRS reports are confidential unless a member of Congress makes one public. The interpretation of the legislation was provided to Hotline OnCall by a GOP aide involved in the list-serv on condition of anonymity.

The loophole for leadership staffers could impact thousands of Hill employees. There are 16 active leadership offices in the House and 26 in the Senate, according to the government transparency website LegiStorm. Some are small, with just a few employees. Others are much larger; Speaker Nancy Pelosi paid 54 employees a total of $1.1M in the last quarter of '09, while House Min. Leader John Boehner paid his 26 staffers a total of $721K in the same quarter.

Leaving out committee staffers means aides at the 24 standing House committees and the 20 Senate panels will each be exempted as well, if CRS's interpretation of the measure stands.

Update: A Dem leadership aide points out that the amendment that added the language came from Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK). The aide blamed GOPers for standing in the way of fixing the provision.

"World News" led with the passage of health care reform and hosted Speaker Nancy Pelosi. "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with passage of health care reform.

WH sr. adviser David Axelrod made the TV rounds 3/22 p.m.

Axelrod, on the bill: "I'm sure it will pass the Senate. The question is whether the other side is going to engage in a bunch of dilatory tactics and parliamentary tactics."

More Axelrod, on whether he's "a little less confident" that'll happen: "No, no, I'm very confident. What I can't tell you what is
efforts the other side's going to make. ... I think Democrats will be united."

Axelrod, on whether VP Biden will "be in town all week": "He's going to be in town. ... He may preside over the Senate, but I don't think that will be necessary. We have the votes. Health insurance reform is passed. The American people are ready to move on. And we'll see if the Republicans in the Senate are."

NBC's Todd: "If this stalls for some reason, and it does not get done before recess, will you immediately have them take it up and go back and do these fixes?"

Axelrod: "I think they're going to move quickly on this. ... I'm not willing to concede that this won't be wrapped up by the end of this week" ("Hardball," MSNBC, 3/22).

After the jump, more from Axelrod, as well as an exclusive with Vicki Reggie Kennedy.

Good Tuesday morning. Want to know how the health care bill impacts Pres. Obama's poll numbers? The Hotline's polling guru, Steve Shepard, points out that the first completely post-passage Gallup survey is due out Thursday.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make headlines in politics today:

PRES. OBAMA: Though the clouds are breaking up, Obama will hold a bill signing ceremony in the East Room, rather than the Rose Garden or the South Lawn. It will be Obama's first big political win in months -- arguably since he signed the stimulus bill into law -- and it could have unforeseen political consequences, to his party's benefit, as well.

Obama will be surrounded by members of Congress, many of whom have already signaled they will embrace the legislation as they campaign for re-election this year. Just a week ago, that notion was unthinkable. GOPers were licking their chops, cutting ads and pulling ad rates in order to run a fast post-vote blitz against members who voted in favor. Now, Dems have something to show for their year of work, and the party believes it will pay political dividends.

To be sure, GOPers still think theirs is the right path. As we wrote last year, rarely do strategists on opposite sides so clearly differ in their approaches to a single piece of legislation. It happened on the stimulus bill -- even privately, both sides believe they have the better argument on the $787B spending measure -- and now it's happened on health care. Whether one side is more right than the other could determine whether the majority party keeps the Speaker's gavel after Nov.

THE CLUB FOR GROWTH: While Dems celebrate, GOPers are lining up behind their own consensus on health care reform. The bill, many top candidates agree, must be repealed; 49 incumbent lawmakers and 189 candidates have signed the Club's pledge to pursue full repeal of the just-passed measure. That list includes conservatives like Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) and ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio along with more moderate contenders like ex-NH AG Kelly Ayotte (R), ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) and Rep. Mark Kirk.

Notably absent from the list: House and Senate GOP leadership. Though the early rush is to embrace a repeal movement, top GOP strategists are urging caution. By urging a repeal, the GOP could be painted as against some of the most popular provisions of the bill -- allowing young adults to stay on their parents' insurance plans later, say, or banning consideration of pre-existing conditions. The Club's pledge is for a full repeal, and the lack of nuance in many statements candidates are issuing has not gone overlooked.

The Club has seen its power grow by leaps and bounds in recent years. Lawmakers who once dismissed the group are now lining up behind them (Rep. Tom Cole, for instance, no fan of The Club's tactics, has signed the pledge). And their power will be on display again today, when UT voters head to neighborhood precinct caucuses. The Club has targeted Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) for defeat, and while Bennett has 5K pledged delegates -- per the Salt Lake Tribune -- he could still face trouble at the state convention later this year.

With health care reform all but locked away, Pres. Obama has said one of his next big initiatives will be on immigration reform, another issue that has baffled the admins before his. And the contentious issue is already playing a role in the CA GOV race.

Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R) and ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) have tried to out-conservative each other on the issue in the past week.

Poizner advocates for a return to a Prop. 187-style approach to illegal immigrants that would ban undocumented immigrants from receiving taxpayer-funded benefits like public education and health care benefits.

Whitman is focusing on securing borders, eliminating "sanctuary cities" and holding employers accountable for hiring undocumented workers. She has said several times in the past week that she is "100% against amnesty," but she does not support denying children education and health care because of "the sins of their fathers."

The issue was the focus of the first debate between the 2, held last week, and Poizner focused his second TV ad, released today, on the links between illegal immigration to the economic crisis in CA.

"We all know California is heading right over a cliff. How did this happen? Years of liberal failure doing too much for too many," Poizner says in the ad. "Take illegal immigration. Politicians have lacked the guts to tackle the problem. As governor, I will stop taxpayer-funded benefits for illegal immigrants." He added that he would raise the issue as a ballot initiative if necessary.

"We have to stop illegal immigration. The only way to do it is to turn the magnets off, by ending, once and for all, all the taxpayer-funded benefits for people who are here illegally. Meg doesn't want to go that far," Poizner said in the debate last week.

Considering how much Poizner is professing his love for Prop. 187, it may be surprising that ex-Gov. Pete Wilson (R) is chairing the Whitman camp. As gov. in '94, Wilson advocated for the proposition that would have prohibited illegal immigrants from using health care, public education and social services in the state. Voters passed the measure, but it was later found unconstitutional in court.

A 3/20 San Francisco Chronicle article explored the potential impact of Wilson's connection to the Whitman camp -- and the conclusion wasn't pretty for Whitman.

Ex-Portland Trail Blazers center Chris Dudley (R) released the first TV ad of the open OR GOV race today, a 30-second spot airing statewide that highlights Dudley's outsider image.

Dudley, who is diabetic, retired from the sport in '03, and currently works at a financial firm in Portland and runs a foundation for diabetic children.

The GOP primary is a toss-up, with polls showing Dudley running neck and neck against '08 Treas. nominee/businessman Allen Alley (R) and '90 candidate/'98 SEN nominee/businessman/ex-state Sen. John Lim (R). '98 nominee/anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore (R), who is currently facing charges of tax evasion, is also in the primary.

If Dudley makes it past the primary field, the "outsider" message could resonate in the general election against either ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) or '02 SEN nominee/ex-Sec/State Bill Bradbury (D). Both Dems have stressed their experience and leadership abilities.

Polling shows the winner of the Dem primary, on May 18, will be an early front-runner in the general election.

Dudley's first ad, "Comeback":

What's behind the NRCC's biggest fundraising month this cycle? It's the GOP members themselves, who after holding on to their checkbooks for the last 2 cycles are finally pitching in to help elect more candidates.

In Feb., the NRCC raised $5M, the most they have raised in a single month and more, for the first time all cycle, than the DCCC. Nearly $1M of that amount came from GOP members, according to FEC reports filed over the weekend.

House Min. Leader John Boehner led the way, handing over $200K in transfers. Reps. Spencer Bauchus (R-AL), Joe Barton and Pete Sessions (R-TX), who chairs the NRCC, gave $100K each.

The $955K GOP members handed over last month came largely from the conference's annual retreat, which they held in Baltimore. At that meeting, GOPers pledged big transfers after presentations from Sessions and Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who heads the NRCC's recruiting.

All told, 25 members wrote checks to the NRCC. Before Feb., GOPers had only given $931K to the committee.

Dems have been much more generous with their cash, writing checks that totaled more than $3.2M since the beginning of the year. But last month, those contributions dropped off; Rep. Jared Polis (D-CO) gave $5,500, while several other members earmarked contributions aimed at specific candidates.

The NY Conservative Party exec. cmte endorsed ex-Rep. Rick Lazio (R) on Saturday, for NY GOV over Suffolk Co. Exec. Steve Levy (D) by a 13-5 margin, suggesting the fight for the GOP GOV nomination could prove as bitter as NY 23.

The endorsement puts pressure on the NY GOP, as Lazio has pledged to run on the Conservative line in the general election regardless of the GOP primary results. Ex-Gov. George Pataki (R), ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) and Rep. Peter King (R) all back Lazio, while NY GOP chair Ed Cox backs Levy.

In a Lazio press release, Conservative Chair Mike Long said the party "will do everything we can to ensure his election this November." Levy dismissed the Conservative leaders' endorsement as "an unweighted recommendation."

The nod will likely help Lazio's fundraising, which has proven lackluster of late. It's another momentum boost after a poll released today showed him leading Levy by a wide margin, albeit among a small sample of GOP voters.

And securing the third party line is an important part of a NY race. Since '74, no GOP candidate has won statewide without the Conservative endorsement. That means Lazio can use the argument that, contrary to speculation, he may be better off against AG Andrew Cuomo (D) than Levy, who has outraised Lazio 6-to-1.

Whoever wins the primary will face a tough lift this fall, though. Cuomo has a massive financial advantage against both Levy and Lazio, and the Siena Research Institute poll is the latest to show Cuomo with a huge, possibly insurmountable lead.

A day after House Dems passed health care legislation, GOPers are embracing a Club for Growth-backed campaign to repeal the measure if they win election this year.

Responding to last night's party-line vote, candidates from across the country said they will back legislation offered by Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) to repeal the bill.

"On Capitol Hill, Sen. Jim DeMint is preparing legislation to immediately repeal the new federal health care program. That's an effort I strongly support, and if I were in the Senate, I'd be the first to back his bill," said ex-NH AG Kelly Ayotte (R), a top Senate contender. "We must stop the federal takeover of health care, and this legislation is a critical first step."

"While I am dismayed that we have reached that point, I reiterate my strong support for repealing [the bill] and offering alternative reforms that will lower health care costs without growing government and breaking the bank," added ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R). "Fortunately, this debate does not end today. And we cannot allow it to if our nation is to survive the failed politics and policies that have plagued Washington for far too long. We cannot allow it to if we are to preserve the freedoms that have made America an exceptional nation for centuries."

The drive to repeal the bill is being pushed by the Club for Growth, rather than by top GOP leaders. The RNC has yet to take a position on full repeal, and House and Senate leaders are nervous that advocating for repeal would put the GOP in a vulnerable spot during the midterms.

Still, the Club's move is earning a following in Congress. A total of 4 senators and 35 House members have signed a pledge to repeal health care legislation, as have more than 100 candidates.

"Shame on Congress for not listening to the people, shame on [Sen.] Blanche Lincoln for being the 60th vote to get health care out of the Senate, and shame on Cong. [Bart] Stupak for caving in to the pressure and not protecting the sanctity of life," added AR state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R), another top Senate contender. "As a U.S. Senator, I will work to repeal a government takeover of health care and offer solutions to replace it with common sense, quality, affordable health care."

In a statement released Monday, businessman Keith Fimian (R), running against Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA), promised to introduce his own legislation to repeal the bill. Businessman Robert Dold (R), running for Rep. Mark Kirk's (R-IL) open seat, said he would aim to repeal certain provisions of the health care legislation.

Privately, Dems are giddy at the prospects of running against GOPers who advocate for full repeal. They believe they will be able to paint candidates who do so as seeking to take away health care coverage and other key provisions of the bill that will go into effect immediately after it's signed.

But with such a favorable political environment, it may be more likely that the Club and its allies cause more problems for centrist GOPers than Dems do; already, the Club is targeting Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT), who cosponsored a health care proposal with Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR).

As National Journal's Ron Brownstein wrote 2 weeks ago, in the run-up to the health care vote, Dems weighing their votes had to consider how much of their district is made up of the uninsured, who stood to gain the most from the bill.

The lower the percentage of uninsured constituents, the reasoning went, the less likely a member would be to cast a vote for the bill. See, for example, Rep. Jason Altmire (D-PA), a vote against the final bill; just 7.2% of Altmire's suburban Pittsburgh district is uninsured.

Meanwhile, a disproportionately high 17.3% of Altmire's district is senior citizens, among whom the health care reform bill was most unpopular. The higher the percentage of seniors, the more likely members took heat for their votes in favor.

But members didn't always follow the political logic. Here are the 10 Dems in districts with the highest percentage of uninsured constituents who voted against the bill, the 10 Dems in districts with the lowest uninsured rates who voted in favor, and the 10 GOPers in districts with the highest number of uninsured constituents:

The No Voters                    Percent
Member            District      Uninsured
Dan Boren          OK-02          24.87%
Harry Teague       NM-02          21.81
Chet Edwards       TX-17          20.67
Mike McIntyre      NC-07          20.00
Gene Taylor        MS-04          19.70
Jim Marshall       GA-08          19.01
Mike Ross          AR-04          18.91
John Barrow        GA-12          18.91
Marion Berry       AR-01          18.49
Larry Kissell      NC-08          18.21

The Yes Voters                   Percent
Member            District      Uninsured
James McGovern     MA-03           3.36%
Barney Frank       MA-04           3.61
John Tierney       MA-06           3.62
Niki Tsongas       MA-05           3.70
Richard Neal       MA-02           3.83
John Olver         MA-01           3.95
Bill Delahunt      MA-10           4.28
Ed Markey          MA-07           4.57
Patrick Murphy     PA-08           6.02
Joe Sestak         PA-07           6.35

After the jump, the 10 GOPers with the highest percentage of uninsured constituents.

NY AG Andrew Cuomo (D) is the heavy favorite to take over for retiring Gov. David Paterson (D), according to yet another survey, while ex-Rep. Rick Lazio (R) sports a wide lead in the GOP primary.

The Siena Research Institute poll surveyed 810 registered voters between Mar. 15-18 for a margin of error of +/- 3.4%. Cuomo was tested against Lazio, Suffolk Co. Exec. Steve Levy (D) and atty Warren Redlich (L). In the GOP primary, 197 voters were surveyed for a margin of error of +/- 7%.

Primary Election Matchup
Lazio      45%
Levy       16

General Election Matchup
Cuomo      59%      Cuomo      63%
Lazio      21       Levy       16
Redlich     3       Redlich     4

Though the sample among GOPers is miniscule, it gives Lazio reason to be optimistic about his bid against Levy. Elected as a Dem, Levy is planning a run as a GOPer; when GOP voters are told Levy is a Dem, they flock to Lazio by an even wider margin.

Still, the GOP has little chance of taking back the GOV mansion, according to this and other surveys. A majority of NYers want Cuomo to run for GOV rather than for re-election, the poll shows, including 58% of independent voters. In fact, 40% of GOPers want him to seek the state's top job, the poll shows.

The Hotline's Felicia Sonmez traveled to Indonesia to find some of Pres. Obama's former classmates. They remember a sporty, tall left-hander who eventually grew up to move into the WH:

Milwaukee Co. Exec. Scott Walker (R) is out with his second ad of his campaign to replace retiring WI Gov. Jim Doyle (R), and once again the likely GOP nominee is obsessed with lunch.

Walker likes to talk about bringing his own lunch to work in a brown bag, and his camp is doing its best to create buzz around what it calls a "brown bag movement."

In his first ad, Walker talked up his decision to give back a part of his salary after winning election as county exec. In the second spot, Walker uses the brown bag metaphor to advocate for smaller government and lower taxes.

And, a source in the Walker camp tells us, he actually ate the sandwiches featured in the new spot.

Walker's primary rival, ex-Rep. Mark Neumann (R), has already been on TV several times. The winner of the primary will likely face Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett (D) in the fall.

Walker's second ad, "Brown Bag":

Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (R-LA), the lone GOPer to vote for any health care bill in the House, said he couldn't vote for the Senate version because of abortion language he said didn't go far enough, calling the procedure a "moral evil" akin to slavery.

"For me abortion is such a moral evil, at a par with slavery, that I cannot in good conscience support a bill that seeks to expand it," Cao told the New Orleans Times-Picauyne.

Comparing anything to slavery in politics is a risky idea in the first place. Doing so when one represents a district that is almost 60% African American, as Cao's New Orleans-based district is, is even more fraught with peril. Further, 21.7% of Cao's constituents are uninsured, one of the highest percentages of any lawmaker voting against the measure.

Cao came under intense pressure from both sides during the health care debate. He voted for the House measure in Nov., excusing himself from the House Min. Whip's office with just minutes to go before the vote closed to do so. As he voiced his opposition to the current measure, Pres. Obama personally asked him to reconsider.

He even took heat from his own brother, who had a kidney transplant. His brother wanted him to vote for the bill.

"That was one of the toughest conversations I've ever had in my life," Cao told the Times-Pic. "Right now I'm pretty much a tormented soul."

But Cao's likely opponent, state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D), pointed to another kind of pressure -- Cao's fundraiser last week with House Min. Leader John Boehner.

"I am deeply disappointed that after being thrown a fundraiser by Republican House Minority Leader John Boehner the week before the vote, Congressman Cao went against the will and health of his district by joining Congressional Republicans in voting against this historic and urgent legislation to reform our country's health care system," Richmond said in a statement last night.

"Let me be perfectly clear, there is no public funding of abortion in this legislation," Richmond added. "Congressman Cao's opposition is less a principled stance against fictional public funding of abortion and more a smoke screen to hide behind, as it was recently reported that his campaign contributions fell by 40% after his vote for the House health care legislation last year."

Cao already faced one of the toughest re-election bids of any incumbent this year. His vote against health care could help his contributions, but voting against the admin is not likely to go over well in a district that gave Obama a 75%-23% win in '08.

MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) is asserting a hawkish stand on foreign policy and, especially, the Middle East peace process as he looks to burnish his credentials in advance of a possible WH'12 run.

In an address to AIPAC last night, his first major speech focused exclusively on foreign policy, Pawlenty called for a tougher approach to Iran while reaffirming the country's traditional alliance with Israel.

"Together, the US and Israel must be clear not to blur the lines between friend and foe, and we must see our most dangerous enemies as they are, and not as we imagine them to be," Pawlenty said, according to prepared remarks. "Our enemies are tempted by weakness, not strength, and they are glad to exploit Utopian visions held by other nations."

Pawlenty called for more political pressure on Iranian pres. Mahmoud Ahmadinejad and new UN Security Council sanctions against a tyrant "who cannot be reasoned with."

And amid a spat over new housing construction in a sensitive area in Jerusalem, announced during VP Joe Biden's trip to Israel earlier this month, Pawlenty cast blame for the stagnating peace process on Palestinians, rather than on Israel.

"We need to further strengthen a strategy to build Palestinian institutions in the West Bank and cultivate a new, peaceful Palestinian political elite, one that rejects terror," Pawlenty said at the closed-press session. "New leaders who are honest and capable, who appreciate the rule of law, who understand that war against Israel has doomed generations of Palestinians to lives of bitterness, violence, and poverty, and who are more interested in improving Palestinians' lives than eliminating Israel."

"These potential new leaders are Israel's best hope for honest, earnest negotiators. Peace is possible, but only with the right partners," he added.

If he makes a WH bid, Pawlenty will face the same hurdle other state executives have had to contend with: What he has in executive experience, he lacks in foreign policy experience. Governors running for the WH often talk of trade missions, but more often than not new candidates are under-prepared (Remember George W. Bush mixing up Slovakia and Slovenia).

But at a moment when the Obama admin is feuding with Israel, Pawlenty's focus on the Middle East, and especially on Iran, could pay off in front of an appreciative audience like the one at AIPAC. The pro-Israel lobby is gearing up to push the U.S. to focus more on Iran than on the peace process, something Pawlenty can use to bolster his early credentials.

After the jump, Pawlenty's excerpted remarks to AIPAC.

Good Monday morning. Which were you watching yesterday, basketball or C-SPAN? We bet the cable net got some pretty good ratings in the DC area.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, a special post-health care edition focused on the players who will make the bill a winner for their respective parties:

PRES. OBAMA: Backed into a corner and faced with what he called the make or break moment for his presidency, Obama got a big win as the House passed health care on a party line vote last night. Both parties called it an historic moment (Even GOPers spotlighting their "no" votes managed to invoke history), but which party can make the bill into a political liability for the other side?

The 219-212 margin (thanks to C-SPAN for the screen shot) was a good one for Dems: Now the GOP can't call a single member "the deciding vote." But that's small comfort to the members who will face tough re-election fights this fall. Their fate is now in the hands of Dems who still have to sell the bill. The party has to convince voters they have significantly changed the health care system, and for the better. So far, as even top party strategists admit, that hasn't happened.

To make the bill work for them, Dems need an all-out push while news of its passage is still fresh. OFA, Pres. Obama's political arm, hasn't won a lot of races yet (and they admit as much), but the group is painting health care as a big success. The group orchestrated 500K calls to Congress and another 120K calls to supporters -- a total of 1.2M contacts over the past 10 days. If OFA keeps making the big lift required to sell the bill, they have the chance to limit the damage, if not turn the bill into a positive.

HOUSE GOPERS: Meanwhile, the GOP thought it had a fighting chance -- at least until Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) went to the microphone and announced his support. Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) told CongressDaily's Erin McPike the GOP was "pretty optimistic" until Stupak's pro-life gang said they would provide the decisive margin. The executive order Obama signed restating the federal ban on abortions put the GOP into "the 'Oh crap' mode," Chaffetz said.

The Club for Growth and other GOP groups want the party's candidates to campaign on a platform of full repeal, though House leadership has been notably reluctant to sign off on that strategy. Dems would be able to make the case that the GOP wanted to take health care away from those who will get it once the bill is fully in effect. But for now, the GOP is aiming to take advantage of the bill's low poll numbers and the country's sour mood for their electoral prospects.

One thing to consider: The RNC and the NRCC filed FEC reports this weekend with little fanfare, and for good reason. Though they both raised good money (the NRCC finally outraised the DCCC), they lag well behind Dems on the financial front. With groups like PhRMA joining with labor unions to defend the bill, the GOP has to face the fact that it will be dramatically outspent in the midterms.

Behind tonight's 219-212 House vote to pass the Senate health care bill were 34 Dems who voted against their leadership and the bill, and 17 Dems (who are running for re-election) who voted for it, despite the fact they sit in CDs carried by John McCain. Many of those 17 Dems are already getting blistered by GOPers in press releases, and we can expect to see those kind of attacks continue in the next few days.

Here is a list of the Dems in each category:

DEM NOs (34)

CD      Incumbent   Obama %     '08 winning %
AL-02   Bright      37          50
AL-07   Davis       74          Unopposed
AR-01   Berry       38          Unopposed
AR-04   Ross        39          86
GA-08   Marshall    43          57
GA-12   Barrow      55          66
ID-01   Minnick     36          51
IL-03   Lipinski    64          73
KY-06   Chandler    43          65
LA-03   Melancon    37          Unopposed
MD-01   Kratovil    40          49
MA-09   Lynch       60          Unopposed
MN-07   Peterson    47          72
MS-01   Childers    37          54
MS-03   Taylor      32          75
MO-04   Skelton     38          66
NJ-03   Adler       52          52
NM-02   Teague      49          56
NY-13   McMahon     49          61
NY-24   Arcuri      50          51
NC-07   McIntyre    47          69
NC-08   Kissell     52          55
NC-11   Shuler      47          62
OH-18   Space       45          60
OK-02   Boren       35          71
PA-04   Altmire     44          56
PA-17   Holden      48          64
SD-AL   Sandlin     45          68
TN-04   Davis       34          59
TN-08   Tanner      43          Unopposed
TX-17   Edwards     32          53
UT-02   Matheson    40          63
VA-02   Nye         50          53
VA-09   Boucher     40          Unopposed
DEM YESs (17)*
CD      Incumbent   Obama %     '08 winning %
AZ-05   Mitchell    47          53
AZ-08   Giffords    46          55
CO-03   Salazar     48          61
CO-04   Markey      49          56
FL-02   Boyd        45          62
FL-24   Kosmas      49          57
IL-09   Hill        48          58
ND-AL   Pomeroy     45          62
OH-06   Wilson      48          62
OH-16   Boccieri    48          54
PA-04   Dahlkemper  49          52
PA-10   Carney      45          56
SC-05   Spratt      46          62
VA-05   Perriello   48          50
WV-01   Mollohan    42          Unopposed
AZ-01   Kirkpatrick 44          56
WV-03   Rahall      42          67

* Reps. Bart Gordon (D-TN 06), Brad Ellsworth (D-IN 08) and Vic Snyder (D-AR 02) also voted for the bill and sit in McCain CDs, but they are not running for re-election.

These 17 McCain Dems aren't the only ones that will bear the brunt GOP attacks from their votes. Several others -- including Reps. Mark Schauer (D-MI 07), Joe Donnelly (D-IN 02), Tim Bishop (D-NY 01) and Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH 01) -- are examples of Dems who sit in marginal CDs that will certainly face scruitiny at home because of their vote.

As the ever-gracious hostess, Speaker Nancy Pelosi has invited a crowd of notables to her press-gallery section this evening for what likely will be a climactic speech. And her press staff kindly provided the names of those 15 guests. Call it a case of family, lobbyist friends, and Obama-ites.

With the approach of their likely euphoric moment of completing congressional action on their core health care bill -- and promises of prompt Senate action on the clean-up measure -- their celebration will begin. But, of course, that will require a few more speeches, including by the often windy Speaker.

On the family side, the gallery guests will include Pelosi's husband Paul -- who has circulated in Capitol hallways in his typically quiet demeanor during much of this weekend -- daughters Nancy Corinne Prowda and Alexandra Pelosi, and Alexandra's husband Michiel Vos.

Interest groups will be represented by Gordon Whitman, of the faith-based PICO national network; Richard Kirsch, national campaign manager for Health Care for America Now; Robert Hall, assistant director of the American Academy of Pediatrics; Rich Trumka, president of the AFL-CIO; Willarda Edwards, president of the National Medical Association; and Ari Matusiak, President of the Young Invincibles Want Change group. All have participated actively in the health-care debate.

Representing the Obama Administration will be Christina Romer and Mark Duggan of the Council of Economic Advisors; Zeke Emanuel, Senior Advisor for Health Policy at the Office of Management and Budget, and brother of WH chief of staff Rahm Emanuel; Jason Furman, National Economic Council Advisor; and Nancy Ann DeParle, Pres. Obama's chief adviser on health reform.

Rep. Bart Stupak's (D-MI) agreement on abortion with Pres. Obama took whatever drama was left out of the question of whether the health care bill will pass the House tonight. But there's still the question of which Dems will buck their party and vote against the bill.

And we got a hint of which Dems will stray from the party line in two procedural votes, which passed rather easily -- relatively speaking -- earlier today. Through those votes, a total of 29 Dems voted at least once against the rules of debate. For the Senate health care bill to pass the House, Dems cannot lose more than 37 of their own Members, if, as expected, no GOPers cross the aisle to support it.

The 29 Dems:

Reps. John Adler (D-NJ), Mike Arcuri (D-NY), John Barrow (D-GA), Dan Boren (D-OK), Rick Boucher (D-VA), Bobby Bright (D-AL), Ben Chandler (D-KY), Travis Childers (D-MS), Artur Davis (D-AL), Lincoln Davis (D-TN), Chet Edwards (D-TX), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD), Tim Holden (D-PA), Frank Kratovil (D-MD), Dan Lipinski (D-IL), Stephen Lynch (D-MA), Jim Marshall (D-GA), Jim Matheson (D-UT), Mike McIntyre (D-NC), Michael McMahon (D-NY), Charlie Melancon (D-LA), Walt Minnick (D-ID), Harry Mitchell (D-AZ), Glenn Nye (D-VA), Mike Ross (D-AR), Health Shuler (D-NC), Ike Skelton (D-MO), Zack Space (D-OH), Gene Taylor (D-MS).

While these early "no" votes may give us a general indication of what the later roll call on the Senate health care bill will look like, it's not likely to be an exact replica.

Excluding those who sided with Stupak and are now likely to vote for the legislation, several Dems who have promised to vote "no" -- including Reps. Jason Altmire (D-PA), Larry Kissell (D-NC) and Collin Peterson (D-MN) -- voted with their leadership in the early votes. So while the final bill is still likely to pass, it won't be as easy as those earlier votes suggested.

The National Organization for Women is "incensed" that Pres. Obama agreed with Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) to issue an executive order clarifying restrictions on abortion in the bill, and it just released a statement questioning his commitment to his pro-choice base.

"President Obama campaigned as a pro-choice president, but his actions today suggest that his commitment to reproductive health care is shaky at best," NOW pres. Terry O'Neill wrote in a statement. "Contrary to language in the draft of the executive order and repeated assertions in the news, the Hyde Amendment is not settled law ... The message we have received today is that it is acceptable to negotiate health care on the backs of women, and we couldn't disagree more."

Through two procedural votes on the rule, it doesn't appear the agreement between Stupak and Obama has angered pro-choice Dems enough to threaten passage of the overall health care bill.

But Dems believe passage of the legislation will help rally a slumbering base ahead of the midterm elections, and the last-minute deal with Stupak may put a damper on some of those hopes.

Dems reached consensus today on abortion as health reform legislation appears to be on the doorstep of enactment. And weary participants said that they had reached a classic compromise: Nobody is completely happy with the details, but they were confident that they will soon pass the sweeping bill.

After announcing this afternoon his break-through deal that Pres. Obama has agreed to issue an executive order clarifying the restrictions on abortion in the health-care bill, Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) -- the leader of a faction of pro-life House Dems -- voiced an alliance of sorts with leaders of pro-choice House Dems.

"Are they extremely happy? No. Are they extremely disappointed? No," Stupak responded. "They are like us." He was flanked by 6 allies in his group at a Capitol press conference this afternoon.

Stupak said that he decided to pursue the option of an executive order after it became clear that Senate supporters could not find the votes to break a filibuster and include additional abortion language. Although his allies among the Catholic Bishops have continued to oppose any steps other than legislation, Stupak said "I know it's Lent ... If they could come up with 60 votes, that would be great."

Despite objections by House Min. Leader John Boehner that support for the Senate-passed bill "is a vote for taxpayer-funded abortions," Stupak replied, "Make no mistake, there will be no public funds for abortions."

According to Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), Stupak initiated discussions of his latest alternative in the past few days. "The executive order was a brilliant option. We just kept working at it," she said. "We worked very hard. Bart took the first crack at drafting the executive order and then everyone contributed to it ... perfecting. ... We went through several [negotiating sessions] with the executive branch."

Kaptur said that she did not see a draft until yesterday. "Mr. Stupak probably has some of the earlier versions on notebook paper."

WH officials said this afternoon that Obama will issue the executive after he signs the sweeping health-care bill.

As the swing votes in the health reform endgame, Stupak and his allies were under intense pressure from all sides. Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D-PA), a freshman who has worked closely with Stupak, said that she has had little sleep during the past week and was so tired that she feared that she would faint under the intense press-gallery lights. "It's hard to sleep. These things weigh on you."

And with the small but crucial number of about 10 members in Stupak's group, "It can be a bit lonely sometimes," Dahlkemper added. She praised Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Maj. Leader Steny Hoyer for encouraging the group. "They knew that I was under a lot of pressure."

The negotiations between pro-life Dems and WH counsel Bob Bauer extended past midnight last night; they were based in the office of Rep. Mike Doyle (D-PA), another ally of the group.

Underlying the efforts to reach the abortion deal was continuing uncertainty about whether Dems could find the 216 votes needed to pass a bill without Stupak and his allies. "I think they were pretty darn close to having 216.," Stupak said.

But Dahlkemper said that she was relieved that she won't have to determine how she would have voted without an abortion compromise. "That is a scenario I never wanted to get to," she said. "And the President wanted to find a way to follow through on his promise" to Congress last September to reach a compromise on abortion language.

-- Brian Friel and Sean Sullivan contributed to this report

Senate GOPers and Dems are sparing over a canceled meeting with the Senate Parliamentarian as the GOP tries to make hay of what they call Dems' refusal to meet before the House vote.

The move looks like a last heave in Senate GOPers' weeks-long attempt to convince House Dems a package of changes to the Senate's healthcare bill cannot clear the Senate intact.

Dems say it is GOPers who have put off the meeting. They accuse GOPers of a cynical last ditch ploy to try to impact House Dems worried their Senate counterparts cannot deliver on a promise to push through House-favored fixes under reconciliation.

Senate GOPers, for much of this week, have said that because the package of changes to the Senate bill would affect Social Security tax revenue, the reconciliation package violates language in the Congressional Budget Act baring use of budget reconciliation to alter Social Security law.

According to GOPers, that means Parliamentarian Alan Frumin should allow a point of order vote against the language that would require 60 votes to overcome. With all 41 Republicans pledged to vote together in reconciliation, and any change to the package in the Senate forcing another House vote, that would mean GOPers could derail quick passage next week.

In a statement, Don Stewart a spokesman for Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell, accused Dems of refusing since yesterday to meet with Frumin to discuss the issue.

"We suspect Democrats are slow walking us ... to have the House vote first. Since Senate Democrats refuse to meet with us and the Parliamentarian, we've informed our colleagues in the House that we believe the bill they're now considering violates the clear language of Section 310g of the Congressional Budget Act, and the entire reconciliation bill is subject to a point of order and rejection in the Senate should it pass the House," Stewart said.

Jim Manley, spokesman for Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, called that claim "the most ridiculous thing that I have ever heard."

Manley said GOPers had boycotted a scheduled meeting Friday with the parliamentarian, "I believe because we did not have a final language."

"Republicans then suggested late last night that we meet first thing this morning," Manley said. "Why? Because as they have done repeatedly in the past, they wanted to try to spook the House before the final vote. And like before, they have nothing from the parliamentarian to support their claims. Whether we met or not they were going to say the same thing. It is a cynical strategy, albeit a highly misleading one."

After an abortion compromise satisfied Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) and his pro-life allies, Dems are privately pushing the idea that a GOPer may vote for the health care bill on the floor today.

Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (R-LA) voted for the House version, but he has said abortion language in the Senate bill precluded him from considering a yes vote today.

Stupak and his allies announced they would support the bill following Pres. Obama's promise to issue an executive order clarifying a prohibition on federal funding for abortion. After Stupak said he would support the bill, House Dem aides began emailing reporters asking whether Cao would follow suit.

Earlier this week, Cao said he would reconsider his vote after Obama asked him to do so. But as of this morning, Cao was still a no vote.

Though his earlier vote hurt him among some GOPers -- he lost his direct mail firm partially as a result of the vote -- others have stuck by Cao, probably the most vulnerable House GOPer facing re-election this fall. On Tuesday, House Min. Leader John Boehner hosted a fundraiser on Cao's behalf.

Pres. Obama will sign an executive order to prohibit federal funding for abortions, part of a last-minute deal expected to clear the way for House passage of the Senate health care bill.

In a statement issued Sunday, WH communications director Dan Pfeiffer said the executive order would provide safeguards to assure members concerned about abortion language in the Senate bill that federal funds will not be used to fund abortions.

"While the legislation as written maintains current law, the executive order provides additional safeguards to ensure that the status quo is upheld and enforced, and that the health care legislation's restrictions against the public funding of abortions cannot be circumvented," Pfeiffer said.

"The President has said from the start that this health insurance reform should not be the forum to upset longstanding precedent," he added. "The health care legislation and this executive order are consistent with this principle."

Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) had claimed he had enough votes to sink the bill, but a number of pro-life Dems said they would be voting for health care legislation even though they still had concerns with the abortion language.

Stupak is holding a press conference right now to discuss the deal. Joining him in signing on to the health care bill were a half-dozen pro-life Dems -- several of whom were previously considered undecided or "no" votes -- including Reps. Chris Carney (D-PA), Kathy Dahlkemper (D-PA), Alan Mollohan (D-WV), Marcy Kaptur (D-OH), Nick Rahall (D-WV) and Steve Driehaus (D-OH). Stupak said this puts Dems "well past" 216 votes necessary for passage.

Though they aren't likely to win today's vote, House GOPers are clearly having more fun.

GOP House members are helping rile up a crowd gathered outside the House side of the Capitol, appearing on a balcony outside the Speaker's office and waving to the crowd.

Rep. Tom Latham (R-IA) held up an 8 by 11 inch sign reading "Kill the Bill." House GOP Conference chair Mike Pence and Rep. Steve King (R-IA) also made appearances.

Others are addressing the protestors from a microphone being handed up from the crowd. Reps. Pete Olson (R-TX) and Mary Fallon (R-OK) thanked protestors for showing up, while Reps. Peter King (R-NY) and Dave Reichert (R-WA) were content to give a thumbs-down sign.

-- Anna Edney, Billy House and Reid Wilson

For a second day in a row, anti-health care protestors hurled homophobic insults at Rep. Barney Frank (D-MA) as the longtime lawmaker made his way through the Capitol complex.

Protestors yelled "f----t" at Frank as he and his partner walked between the Cannon House Office Building and the Capitol, National Journal's Anna Edney reports. Frank's partner pulled out a camera to record the incident, and the protestors quieted down.

Frank said the protestors were swept up in hysteria and compared the atmosphere among the crowd to a witch hunt.

GOPers see the incidents as detracting from protestors' larger point. Earlier today on "Meet the Press," House Min. Leader John Boehner and RNC chair Michael Steele both condemned racial and homophobic taunts, calling them isolated inapprorpriate incidents.

The RNC sent more than 30 staffers to a lavish resort in Waikiki for a semi-annual meeting in Jan., spending more than $80K on travel, hotel rooms, meals and meeting spaces, while the DNC spent $176K on a similar meeting in DC at a time when both parties' finances are suffering.

A total of at least 31 staffers and RNC officials made the trip to HI, including top members of the communications, research and political departments. In total, FEC reports show the party spent more than $79K in and around Honolulu, a figure that does not include airfare for staffers who traveled to the meeting.

FEC rules require the party committees to list how they spent their money, including listing the merchants who received payments. The committees spend tens of thousands a month on airfare, but they do not have to list destinations, meaning tickets from the mainland to Honolulu are not differentiated from other routine RNC travel -- meaning the total cost to the RNC was likely much higher than FEC reports will demonstrate.

RNC members, most of whom traveled to HI for the meeting, also had to shell out big bucks for their plane tickets, though none of those figures will appear in FEC reports. There are 168 members of the national committee.

Still, the reports do show the committee spent $24K on meeting space at the Hilton Hawaiian Village resort and the Hale Koa Hotel. And 29 staffers were reimbursed for expenses made during their trip. RNC chair Michael Steele and executive director Ken McKay, both of whom attended the meeting, did not report receiving reimbursements for any expenses.

Meanwhile, DNC members arrived in DC a few days before a massive snowstorm brought the city to a halt in mid-Feb. The party spent $176K on catering for the weekend meeting at the Capitol Hilton, the new reports show. Pres. Obama visited DNC members, many of whom were stranded when DC-area airports shut down, for a pep rally.

A meeting of the DNC's finance committee in Jan. cost the DNC $30K, though Pres. Obama threw a fundraiser that likely netted the party hundreds of thousands of dollars. VP Joe Biden also addressed attendees.

The RNC outraised the DNC for the second straight month, but the DNC maintained its overall cash lead as both parties struggle to raise essential resources for the midterm elections.

The RNC raised $7.68M last month, but it spent $7.7M, ending the month with $9.46M in the bank and no debts.

The DNC, on the other hand, raised $7.42M and spent $6.88M in Feb., ending the month with $10.7M in the bank. Still, the committee owes $3.7M in unpaid bills, thanks to a loan the party took out just before the '08 elections and to a series of pollsters who have yet to be paid for their work.

Though the RNC has fallen well behind their historic fundraising pace, chairman Michael Steele is still doling out checks to state party committees, the reports show. The RNC transferred $407K to state parties last month, transferring $250K to MI and $125K to DE, newly filed FEC reports show.

Meanwhile, the NRCC raised more than its Dem counterpart in a show of fundraising strength that has been all too rare of late. The NRCC pulled in $5M in Feb., ending the month with just over $6M in the bank.

The DCCC still has a tremendous advantage, beginning the month with $19.8M cash on hand. The DCCC raised $4.3M in Feb, and it maintains $666K in debt.

With the House scheduled to vote on Sunday afternoon, the outcome remains in doubt and appears to rest with a handful of House Democrats--chiefly Roman Catholics from the Heartland.

The chief publicly undecided members are freshmen Reps. Kathy Dahlkemper (D-PA) and Steve Driehaus (D-OH), and 14-term maverick Marcy Kaptur (D-OH). All had been part of the group organized by Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) that had demanded strict limitations on abortion. But they have joined discussions with Democratic leaders in the past day or two that have sought compromise steps on abortion.

The Bluegrass State has become ground zero for activists looking to make an imprint on the '10 midterm elections, and their efforts have worked so far.

Ophthalmologist Rand Paul's (R) campaign has drawn national attention, and ire, for his Tea Party-infused primary surge over Sec/State Trey Grayson (R), but it's gotten so out of hand that one of his likely Dem opponents, LG Dan Mongiardo, is turning his campaign against the uprising.

"While the Republicans are the 'Party of No,' the Tea Partiers are the 'Party of Nothing,'" Mongiardo said in an interview on Wednesday.

"We're developing right now a Web site called www.DontDrinkTheTea2010.com to educate and to push back on this, because allowing them to scream with nobody else talking is not the right thing for us to do," he said. The Web site launches on Tuesday.

After retiring Sen. Jim Bunning blocked unemployment benefits 2 weeks ago, protests sprang up at his office from both sides. Mongiardo organized the protests; Tea Partiers showed up to counter-protest.

"They were extremely uncivil. They believe that freedom of speech is the ability to out-shout the other guys, and we tried to be civil and have a public discourse," he said. "But they had nothing to do with that. They represent the extreme fringe of the Republican Party, the fright wing of the Republican Party."

The irony is that Mongiardo is the more conservative Dem than the DSCC's preferred candidate, AG Jack Conway (D), and Mongiardo may appeal to some of the disaffected Dems, independents and moderate GOPers that may associate with the Tea Party movement.

"I think a lot of people share their frustration, including me," Mongiardo said of the movement. And, he said, the Tea Party's way is symptomatic of an extreme culture in DC that's not getting anything done.

Some GOPers, including those close to the Grayson campaign, are beginning to think the movement is deflating, particularly after the less-than-impressive showing they've put up in DC as the health care finale nears.

Indeed, most of the top KY candidates are beginning to alter the conversation, away from health care. In the last 24 hours, the candidates recruited by DC Dems and GOPers -- respectively, Conway and Grayson -- have launched ads that have nothing to do with the issue.

Conway's ad focuses on his record as AG, which the campaign maintains is his strongest selling point. The ad points out the Cybercrimes Unit he established in the Bluegrass State in '07.

On the other side of the aisle, Grayson has ground to make up against the lead Paul has developed as a result of his activist ties. Grayson's campaign believes he can knock Paul off his perch based on his national security stances. His ad takes Paul to task for opposing the terrorist surveillance components of the PATRIOT Act.

Mongiardo is more than willing to talk health care, but he was in DC on Wednesday seeking investment for adventure tourism in KY, which he views as a major job creator for the state. He was also meeting with the NRA and seeking their endorsement.

A day after the CBO released a glowing report on the fiscal outlook for health care reform legislation, a wave of Dems on Friday announced they would back the bill, edging Dem leadership closer to the 216 votes they need.

By late Friday, several Dems who voted against the House version of the bill in Nov. said they would flip and support the Senate legislation and its accompanying reconciliation language.

Reps. Suzanne Kosmas (D-FL), John Boccieri (D-OH) and Allen Boyd (D-FL) said they would vote for the bill after voting against it the first time. Kosmas and Boccieri are freshmen who will face tough re-election contests in the coming midterms, while Boyd had voted against the reconciliation package just this week, in the House Budget Committee.

Late Friday, 2 more Dems said they would stick with their previous votes in favor of reform legislation. Reps. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH), a freshman, and Harry Mitchell (D-AZ), a second-term incumbent, said they remain yes votes.

"While not perfect, the reconciliation package addresses several of the concerns I had with the Senate bill," Mitchell said in a statement. "Whether one supports or opposes the underlying bill, I believe a vote to block these fixes is irresponsible. These fixes help Arizona and I strenuously urge the Senate to adopt them."

Several other Dems blasted outside organizations running ads against the legislation. One group accused Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D-PA), who has yet to announce her intentions, of being soft on cancer, just months after she lost both her parents to the disease. Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-OH) also criticized the outside groups, even as he weighs voting against the measure.

It wasn't a perfect day for Dems, however. Rep. Jason Altmire (D-PA), who had been wooed by Pres. Obama, announced he would vote against the legislation a second time. Rep. John Adler (D-NJ) also said he would vote against the bill.

Dems have yet to publicly declare they have the votes to pass the bill, but they ended the week with momentum on their side. Obama will do his part to push reform along by meeting with the House Dem caucus tomorrow, the WH announced today.

It's all part of the final push toward a health care vote. House Maj. Leader Steny Hoyer has said the vote will take place sometime after 2 p.m. on Sunday.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

Meet the Press hosts House Min. Leader John Boehner, House Maj. Leader Steny Hoyer, DNC chair/ex-VA Gov. Tim Kaine and RNC chair Michael Steele. The roundtable features ex-WH comm. dir. Anita Dunn, ex-RNC Chair/ex-WH counselor Ed Gillespie, PBS' Tavis Smiley and NBC's Chuck Todd.

Face the Nation hosts House Maj. Whip James Clyburn, DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen, Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL).

This Week hosts Karl Rove and Obama '08 mgr. David Plouffe. The roundtable features ex-Senate Maj. Leader Tom Daschle (D-SD) and ex-Senate Maj. Leader Trent Lott (R-MS), Washington Post's George Will and ABC's Sam Donaldson.

Fox News Sunday hosts Rep. Paul Ryan (D-WI), Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz, (D-FL) and Sen John Cornyn (R-TX). The panel features FNC's Brit Hume, NPR's Mara Liasson, Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts Sen. Orrin Hatch (R-UT), Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Rep. John Larson (D-CT), Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), Dem strategist Donna Brazile and Bill Bennett.

With 48 hours to go before health care votes are likely to begin, the ranks of undecideds are thinning. Here's the movement we've seen in the last 24 hours:

Update: Dems get yet another flip. Rep. Scott Murphy (D-NY) said today he'll vote for the bill, as the compromise bill is "much more fiscally conservative" than the one that previously came through the House.

Update: Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D-FL) will flip her previous "no" vote, and will vote for the health care bill. She decided to switch her position because the latest version addressed "some of her previous concerns about its effect on small businesses and the federal deficit."

Update: In another switch, Rep. Allen Boyd (D-FL) announced he'll vote for the health care bill, "indicating that the legislation adheres to the four principles of responsible reform he has been fighting for." Boyd faces a primary challenge from state Sen. Al Lawson (D), who has attacked Boyd for his opposition to the bill.

Update: Rep. Jason Altmire (D-PA) told a Pittsburgh TV station today that he'll vote against the bill. But Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH) announced she'll back the bill, as will Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN), who is running for the SEN. None of these three announcements represents a change from their previous votes.

-- Reps. John Salazar (D-CO), Dale Kildee (D-MI), Joe Baca (D-CA), Tim Ryan (D-OH), Charlie Wilson (D-OH), Tom Perriello (D-VA) and Dennis Moore (D-KS) had been undecided after voting in favor in Nov. Now, they're all in the yes column.

-- Rep. John Boccieri (D-OH) said this morning he would vote for the bill after opposing the House version.

-- Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) is "leaning" in favor, but we're not calling the pro-life Dem a yes just yet. Rep. Henry Cuellar said on CNN last night he is also "leaning" toward the bill.

-- Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA) called the CBO score "promising," but Baird remains firmly on the fence.

Meanwhile, take a look at other publications keeping tabs on the whip count this weekend. The Hill, Washington Post, CBS and FireDogLake all have their own tallies.

Keep an eye on Hotline OnCall over the weekend, as we'll post updates live from Capitol Hill. And if you need a reminder of our categories, click here.

Dem Targets: No On Reform, No On Stupak

Dem Longshots: No On Reform, Yes On Stupak

After the jump, the GOP targets and the GOP longshots.

The NRSC raised slightly over $4.6M in Feb., according to FEC reports to be filed today.

The committee has $12.86M cash on hand, up from $10.6M in the bank at the end of Jan. That means the party spent about $2.4M over the previous month.

Update: The DSCC raised $4M in Feb. and spent $2.7M, finishing the month with $14.3M in the bank. The DSCC has $417K in debt, half the amount it had at the end of last month.

Other GOP committees, including the NRCC and the RNC, have fallen behind their Dem counterparts in the fundraising department, giving some GOPers reason to worry. But NRSC chair John Cornyn's team raised more than the $3.9M the NRSC raised in Feb. '08, keeping close to their Dem rivals.

FEC reports for the campaign committees are due tomorrow. Stay tuned to Hotline OnCall as the rest of the numbers roll in.

Dems were ebullient yesterday when a preliminary CBO report said health care reform legislation being considered this weekend by the House would reduce the budget deficit by $130B over the next 10 years, but new polling data from the Kaiser Family Foundation shows that the deficit-reduction argument could be a tough sell.

In the foundation's new monthly tracking poll, released today but conducted before the CBO's most recent finding, a majority of Americans actually believes the CBO has said health care reform would increase the deficit over the next 10 years. Just 15% of Americans believe the CBO has said it will decrease the deficit, with 20% under the impression the CBO has said the legislation would not affect the deficit significantly.

The CBO has found that the bills that passed the House and Senate in '09 both would reduce the deficit over the first 10 years.

Underscoring the degree to which public opinion on health care has hardened, only 10% say they don't know what the CBO has said about the effect health care legislation would have on the deficit.

Assuming Dem leaders can muster the votes to enact the Senate bill and reconciliation fixes, their challenge then will be to convince Americans that their new health care reform law won't increase the deficit. An important starting point would be to convince Americans that the CBO has actually said it reduces the national debt.

The Kaiser poll was conducted from Mar. 10-15 by Princeton Survey Research Assoc. The poll surveyed 1,208 adults, with a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.

Establishment GOPers are worried about Sec/State Trey Grayson's (R) campaign, and a new poll shows they have reason to be. Meanwhile, the survey for DailyKos shows the establishment Dem candidate faces his own long odds in the May 18 primary.

The Research 2000 poll, conducted Mar. 15-17, surveyed 600 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Subsamples of 400 likely Dem and GOP primary voters had margins of error of +/- 5% each. Greyson and ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) were tested against AG Jack Conway (D) and LG Daniel Mongiardo. Trends are from the last poll, conducted Aug. 31 to Sept. 2.

Primary Election Matchups
Mongiardo       47 (+10)    Paul            40 (+15)
Conway          31 (+1)     Grayson         28 (-12)

General Election Matchups
Grayson         43 (-2)    Grayson         44 (-2)
Mongiardo       38 (-3)    Conway          36 (-4)

Paul            46 (+4)    Paul            45 (+4)
Mongiardo       37 (+0)    Conway          39 (+2)

Paul's ratings are strong, at 55% fav, 25% unfav, but Dems -- and GOPers backing Grayson -- remain convinced they have enough opposition research to bring him down. Still, Paul has signaled he will fight back at shots fired his way.

As much as Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell backs Grayson, establishment Dems are backing Conway. The AG has been endorsed by Louisville's mayor, both House Dems who represent the state and major legislative figures; Mongiardo, on the other hand, has only support from Gov. Steve Beshear (D), and the 2 have had a rocky relationship at that.

But Mongiardo, who hails from eastern KY, has a base in a rural area that plays a role in Dem primaries, and Conway has had trouble breaking out of his Louisville base.

Grayson and Conway aren't done yet, but with just 2 months to go before the primary, the general election race KY voters will get could be exactly the opposite of what both party establishments originally wanted.

House Min. Leader John Boehner's office is organizing an unusual marriage of politics and policy as House GOPers pull out all the stops to defeat health care legislation this week.

In an unusual move, the NRCC will send last-minute robo-calls into districts held by fence-sitting Dems, aiming to pressure them into voting against health care legislation this weekend. Calls will go to voters in 68 districts targeted under the NRCC's "Code Red" program.

What makes it an unconventional arrangement is that many members the call targets are not top GOP targets. The calls will target Reps. Dan Boren (D-OK), Daniel Lipinski (D-IL), Collin Peterson (D-MN) and Gene Taylor (D-MS), among others -- none of whom are facing competitive races this year.

The NRCC is also running calls in districts held by Reps. Artur Davis (D-AL), Brian Baird (D-WA), John Tanner (D-TN), Bart Gordon (D-TN), Charlie Melancon (D-LA) and Marion Berry (D-AR). Baird, Tanner, Gordon and Berry are retiring after this year. Davis and Melancon are running for other offices.

Though the robo-calls aren't likely to be very expensive, they do indicate that the NRCC is spending money for a specific legislative goal, rather than a political goal. The scripts into Baird's district, for example, do not mention Denny Heck or Craig Pridemore, the leading Dem contenders to replace Baird. And Davis's district gave Pres. Obama a 3-1 margin, meaning even in very favorable climes the GOP would have little chance of winning the seat.

"This entire campaign has one goal, and that's to defeat this bill," said NRCC spokesman Paul Lindsay. GOPers "want to send one last warning to these members to defeat this bill."

The Code Red project may not have moved many votes -- Dems gained another backer for health care reform Friday morning when Rep. John Boccieri (D-OH) said he would flip his previous "no" vote for a "yes" -- but it has helped the NRCC. Traffic to the website is up 300 times after Rush Limbaugh touted the program, and top party leaders, including ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin, ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney, ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich and MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty, have promoted it to their own followers.

GOPers have threatened to hang the health care vote around Dems' necks this Nov. The party is planning to launch several TV ads aimed at members who vote in favor of the bill, though those ads will generate more earned media than paid; early ad buys indicate the GOP is only purchasing small amounts of cable airtime.

The final round of calls urge listeners to call their members of Congress and tell them to vote no, citing cuts to Medicare and increased taxes. The scripts suggest votes could happen at any moment, though House Dem leaders have signaled the vote will actually take place sometime after 2 p.m. on Sunday.

House Min. Leader John Boehner and Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell both say their party faces big hurdles before they reclaim control of their respective chambers, though they see Dem overreaching as helping them on their way.

"Getting to a majority is a steep climb. But we have more candidates than we have ever had, and we have better candidates than we have ever had. The [national] mood has attracted a lot of really quality people into these races," Boehner said in an interview with National Journal.

But though he is pleased with progress the NRCC and its "Young Guns" program has made in picking up strong candidates, he acknowledged his party is still far behind in the race for financial resources.

"I am concerned that we will have candidates who could win but for the fact that we may not be able to help them [financially]. Obviously, being in the majority makes a difference," Boehner said. "But I think that you will see our members step up this year to close that gap significantly."

Meanwhile, McConnell said his party is likely to pick up a number of Dem-held seats, though reaching the majority when Dems already hold 59 seats will be a stretch.

"If the election were today, we would either be competitive, which doesn't necessarily mean you win, or ahead in the following places: California, Nevada, Colorado, Illinois, Delaware, Pennsylvania, Arkansas, and North Dakota," McConnell said in his own interview with National Journal. Some GOPers hope to contend in NY and CT too, but McConnell left them off the list.

Still, he said, boosting his own numbers at all will help the GOP gain more of a foothold in the upper chamber.

"[Y]ou don't have to have a majority in the Senate to be effective. The Senate institutionally forces things to the political center. Whether we get center-right or center-left solutions, the balance of the president's first, and I hope only, term will probably be determined by what happens this fall," he said.

The leaders' moods are less optimistic than some others in GOP leadership. House Min. Whip Eric Cantor and House GOP Conference Chair Mike Pence have both said they believe their party will retake the majority, while top officials at the RNC also believe the party will take over the lower chamber.

Both McConnell and Boehner priased each other, calling theirs the strongest working partnership between leaders during their tenure in Congress. But while House GOPers work to build something akin to the Contract with America, McConnell wouldn't discuss whether the Senate would join House efforts to promote any such document.

"I would not rule it in or rule it out that we will decide to do something similar in September. It's something we haven't discussed yet in the Senate," McConnell said. "Everyone remembers the Contract With America in 1994. There are big debates among pollsters about whether it had any impact on the election, but it clearly had an impact on what to do after the election; it gave the House Republicans an agenda."

In '94, Newt Gingrich and House GOPers advanced their Contract with America in a 2-page ad in TV Guide in Sept., just weeks before the election that swept them into power. GOP SEN candidates did not join in promoting the Contract that year.

To read the full interviews, click here for Alexis Simendinger's sit-down with McConnell, and click here for Richard E. Cohen's chat with Boehner.

CNN's Christiane Amanpour has been named "This Week" anchor, the network announced last night, bringing a foreign policy expert on to host what has been a traditionally domestic policy and politics show.

ABC News pres. David Westin made the official announcement, calling
Amanpour "a highly respected journalist recognized around the world for her reporting."

"[S]he brings to her new position a wealth of experience and knowledge, as well as a deep commitment to bringing news of the world to the American people," Westin said.

Amanpour will also appear on other ABC News shows, provide int'l analysis of the important issues of the day, and anchor prime time documentaries on international subjects.

She will also be the only woman to host a network's Sunday political affairs show. Candy Crowley hosts CNN's "State of the Union."

"With Christiane we have the opportunity to provide our audiences with something different on Sunday mornings," Westin added. "We will continue to provide the best in interviews and analysis about domestic politics and policies. But now we will add to that an international perspective."

Amanpour will join ABC News in August. Until then, Jake Tapper will serve as interim "This Week" host. Ian Cameron will continue as "This Week" EP.

"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with health care.

ABC's Tapper spent the day with VP Biden recently, and portions of the interview aired on "Nightline" 3/18 p.m.

Biden, on whether he'll be calling Cong. members regarding health care: "When I'm not with you, I'm going to be in that cabin ... making some phone calls."

Biden, on whether it gives him "any moment of pause that maybe the American people fundamentally don't want" the bill: "No. ... This has been tough from day one. It's been tough for 40 years, all right? We are so close to doing what no one else has ever come close to doing that it doesn't surprise me."

Biden, on what he's telling Cong. members: "I'm telling them two things. A, it does take care of preexisting conditions. B, your rates aren't going to skyrocket. C, the insurance companies aren't going to be running the show like they were before. ... They're going to be rewarded."

After the jump, more from Biden, as well as Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA) and Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI).

Good Friday morning. Buzzer-beaters, upsets and tight games all around -- the first day of the tournament lived up to our best expectations. And the UW Huskies are still alive, to boot!

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter in politics today:

PRES. OBAMA: Yesterday went well for Obama, even though he had to delay his trip to Indonesia and Australia for a few months. Instead, he got a surprisingly good CBO score for health care legislation expected to come up for a House vote this weekend, and his signature initiative is now inching toward passage through the House.

Obama will be in VA today for a rally in support of the bill, returning to familiar territory in suburban Fairfax Co. He will speak to supporters at George Mason Univ., but he really has 2 audiences to address: The first is the final few wavering Dems who could ensure the bill makes it through the House. The second is made up of voters who will decide Dems' fates this Nov. Fairfax is the kind of area in which Dems have seen substantial growth in recent years, but the party needs to sell the health care bill to those voters to keep them in the folds.

Members of Congress like Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA), who represents Fairfax, will have to answer for their votes. Connolly has been an ardent and unapologetic backer of the legislation, but other Dems are more nervous. VP Joe Biden told ABC News the WH is getting heat from vulnerable Dems, who now depend on the WH to orchestrate the sales pitch that will save their seats.

HOUSE MAJ. WHIP JIM CLYBURN: But the more immediate concern is passing the bill, and few bear more responsibility than Clyburn does. The Dems' top vote-counter has kept careful track of the party's wavering members, and he told Charlie Rose last night he believes the CBO score brings Dems to the 216 votes they need to pass the bill.

"I think so. I really am -- believe that the people who were very leery about what this would do to the country's debt and deficit are very pleased with this. It makes it easier, as well as on the progressive side," Clyburn said when asked if he had the votes.

Indeed, though 2 Dems who voted for the bill the first time around -- Reps. Mike Arcuri (D-NY) and Stephen Lynch (D-MA) -- said they will vote no this time, Dems began picking up votes late in the day. Reps. Bart Gordon (D-TN) and Betsy Markey (D-CO), 2 no votes, said they would support the measure, and Reps. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) and Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), who were concerned about immigration provisions, are now yes votes. Today, pro-life Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) says she is "leaning" toward voting for the bill, and Rep. John Boccieri (D-OH), a no voter the first time, has an announcement scheduled for this morning.

Many GOP operatives view RNC chairman Michael Steele as more of a burden to his party than a benefit, according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

When 104 GOP Insiders were asked whether their party chairman was an asset or a liability, 71% said Steele was a liability, while only 20% said he was an asset. Another 9% said he was neither or both. By comparison, 61% of the 103 Dem Insiders who participated said that DNC head Tim Kaine was an asset and only 16% said he was a liability. Another 23% said he was neither.

GOP Insiders' assessment of Steele was harsh -- even GOP Insiders who called him an asset tended to give him backhanded compliments. Said one GOPer, "Congressional minorities need some guerrilla-style unpredictability. Steele just brings extra."

Those who saw Steele as a liability pulled few punches. One GOP Insider said, "Steele is unconnected to the fundraising establishment and uninspiring to the rank and file. He is gaffe-prone and lacks gravitas." And that was from one of Steele's milder critics.

The RNC press office did not respond to a request to comment on GOP Insiders' assessment of Steele.

While Kaine got much better treatment from Dem Insiders, there was a sense among many that he was so low-key he was almost a nonentity. Asked to assess the party chair, one Dem responded, "Who is the Democratic Party chairman? Once you identify him, I will be able to answer the question."

The Political Insiders also weighed in on whether they thought Barack Obama would be a one-term president. A whopping 90% of the Dem Insiders said no, while a plurality of GOP Insiders, 46 percent, said yes. A substantial 17 percent of the GOP Insiders said it was simply too soon to tell.

For complete results from this week's poll and all the Insiders' comments, click here.

The NRCC is trumpeting its ad placements against vulnerable House Dems who are still considering their health care votes, but they might not be making the impression they hope for as Democrats pick up momentum in the latest polling.

Ads running against Reps. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ), Steve Driehaus (D-OH) and Chris Carney (D-PA) cost the NRCC just $3,900 per district, according to a source with access to the spending data.

The ads began running 3/8 and run through 3/28, though they will run only on cable channels. Today, the NRCC has launched more ads against Reps. Dina Titus (D-NV) and Paul Kanjorski (D-PA).

The ads cite how often the members have voted with Speaker Nancy Pelosi and cite polls that suggest a minority of residents in each district support Pres. Obama's health care plan.

Dems pointed out the NRCC doesn't have the financial resources to mount a serious and sustained media campaign against any Dems. The NRCC had just $4.1M in the bank at the end of Jan., according to the latest reports filed with the FEC.

But the ads still get GOPers earned media, as local papers and TV stations cover the potshots. The NRCC announced its intentions of running the ads earlier this week.

The CBO score is in, and Dems expect to see a wave of new support for health care legislation. Privately, the party continues to express optimism over their chances.

So why is it that the only announcements that have come out today are bad for the party? Dems should have the momentum, especially after the glowing CBO score. Instead, the momentum feels like it's started in the other direction.

You've seen our explanations of each category (You haven't? Then click here). Now, the latest updates on the health care whip count:

-- Update: The Denver Post reports that Rep. Betsy Markey (D-CO) will announce today that she'll vote for the bill. She voted "no" the first time it came through the House.

-- Update: Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) just announced at a Capitol Hill press conference he will vote for the bill, reversing his earlier opposition.

-- Update: Retiring Rep. Bart Gordon (D-TN) released a statement late today saying the "status quo is no longer affordable," and announced he'd vote for the bill. He voted against the bill the first time around.

-- Rep. Mike Arcuri (D-NY) has informed Dem leaders he will switch from a "yes" to a "no,"

-- Rep. Stephen Lynch (D-MA) has resisted WH pressure to vote for the bill. Today, he tells Politico he's switching his vote from a "yes" to a "no," even after getting a visit from a top union leader.

-- Reps. Dan Maffei (D-NY) and Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) are no longer undecided. They're voting for the bill. Rep. Dale Kildee (D-MI), who had problems with the bill's abortion language, will vote yes as well.

-- And though we're skeptical, Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (R-LA), the only GOPer to vote in favor of health care reform in the House, is taking another look at the bill, at Pres. Obama's request.

Dem Targets: No On Reform, No On Stupak

Dem Longshots: No On Reform, Yes On Stupak

After the jump, the GOP targets and the GOP longshots.

Hotline editor Amy Walter, a former aide to ex-Rep. Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky (D-PA), takes a look at the real choices Dems face when deciding their vote for or against health care legislation:

As each side works to tweak and spin public opinion about health care, House Democrats have to realize that it's not about numbers anymore. Instead, as one lobbyist told me in an off-the-cuff conversation the other day, wavering Democrats need to realize that it's "gut check" time. They vote for or against this bill despite the political implications, not because of them.

Is it worse to look incompetent -- pass nothing and get nothing -- or to pass something that the majority of folks in their districts don't support? Forget about the national polls -- many of these incumbents are looking at polling numbers for their party, their president and the issues that are much, much worse than what we see at the national level.

The last time I witnessed something akin to this kind of pressure was in 1993 when my then-boss, Rep. Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky, D-Pa., flipped her "no" vote on the original House budget bill and went on to become the 218th vote for the Budget Reconciliation Bill. What everyone remembers about that vote was that she went on to lose re-election. What most don't remember was that voting against the bill -- as 41 Democrats did that year -- was no guarantee of success in the '94 midterms, either. Six of those incumbents, including Rep. Jill Long Thompson, D-Ind., David Mann, D-Ohio, and Richard Lehman, D-Calif., voted against both the House and reconciliation bills and lost their seats anyway. Many other no votes, like Reps. Marilyn Lloyd, D-Tenn., Sam Coppersmith, D-Ariz., and Dave McCurdy, D-Okla., retired in 1994. Their seats were captured by a Republican candidate.

Then there was Rep. Pat Williams, D-Mont., who accompanied "MMM" on the long walk down into the well to cast the 217th vote. He went on to win.

House Democrats face the same dilemma this year. They can vote for a bill that's unpopular in their district and lose their seat in November. Or they can vote against the bill and still end up losing their seat.

Or maybe they win either way.

Read the whole column here.

A key House Dem has begun informing party leaders he plans to vote against health care legislation both on the House floor and in the rules committee, on which he sits.

Rep. Michael Arcuri (D-NY), a sophomore Dem who had a tougher-than-expected re-election bid in '08, has told the Dem caucus he will vote against the bill.

He becomes the 3rd member, along with Reps. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) and Luis Gutierrez (D-IL), to have switched from supporting the first bill, in Nov., to opposing the Senate version.

Arcuri's vote will not hurt the bill's chances in committee, where Dems hold a 9-4 advantage over GOPers. The panel's other 8 Dems all voted for the first version of health care, and only Rep. Dennis Cardoza (D-CA) voted in favor of the Stupak amendment.

But Arcuri's decision could make Speaker Nancy Pelosi's goal of winning the 216 votes necessary for passage all the more difficult. Sources say Dems remain short of the votes necessary for passage, but that they have not reached their goal yet.

Check back with Hotline OnCall this afternoon as we unveil our latest whip count, including Arcuri's "no" vote.

Rep. Paul Hodes (D) cast his possible foe as a creature of DC even as he himself embraces a health care bill that is likely to be the signature accomplishment of Pres. Obama's first term.

But to Hodes, it is ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R) who has become an insider. "She is a walking billboard for (Senate Min. Leader) Mitch McConnell. She has moved so far to the right," Hodes said, highlighting fundraisers Ayotte has held with McConnell and other top GOPers.

In an extensive interview with Hotline OnCall, Hodes argued Ayotte lacks concrete policy plans. "She doesn't speak well in front of people," he said, adding, "she is a Washington inside creation of the beltway is what she is, and she is in trouble over it."

While he was quick to launch broadsides at the GOPer, Hodes maintained that the GOP race is not necessarily a done deal just yet. Ayotte faces a challenge from the right from '96 GOV nominee/atty/ex-NH Bd. of Ed. chair Ovide Lamontagne (R), and another well-funded challenger in businessman Bill Binnie (R).

In seeking to cast Ayotte as a DC insider, Hodes will also have to address the fact that he is the only candidate in the race currently serving in Congress (At one point, Hodes criticized one of Ayotte's fundraisers at Charlie Palmer Steak; Hodes himself benefited from a fundraiser at the upscale Capitol Hill restaurant in March '09). Already, Ayotte has begun to criticize his voting record directly, going after his support for the stimulus and his record on spending.

"Paul Hodes knows he can't win on the issues, so he's resorting to these kinds of baseless personal attacks. It's a reflection of a campaign that is desperate and trailing in the polls," said Ayotte spokesperson Jeff Grappone. Ayotte's "record of tough leadership and accomplishment stands in stark contrast to Paul Hodes' failed tenure in Congress. Hodes has become Mr. Washington, with an insatiable appetite for deficit spending."

For Ayotte, the GOP race is shaping up to be a test of her ability to run in a competitive race. In Binnie, she is facing a candidate who can self-finance, and has been advertising heavily. Lamontagne, meanwhile, has sewed doubts about Ayotte's conservatism and criticized Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) for coming to NH to campaign with Ayotte.

The winner of the GOP primary will have the chance to run against the only Dem this year who has embraced the health care bill as a campaign tactic. Hodes said passing the bill would be a net plus, and he will be talking about it throughout the course of his run.

He aims to sell the plan as capable of bringing about broader economic prosperity. "In New Hampshire, what I'm finding is the message that health care reform is a jobs bill, especially for small business is resonating with people," said Hodes.

Hodes argued that voters will ultimately be concerned with the substance of the bill come Nov., rather than the process by which it might be passed. When asked if he had a problem with the "deem and pass" tactic, Hodes responded "no. ... If there is frustration, it is that Democrats haven't been tough enough about getting it done."

Even though Hodes is not an incumbent (or even a member of the party that currently holds the seat), he may face some of the challenges that other Dem incumbents will face this year, thanks to his tenure in DC. But Hodes doesn't see it that way. "I am not running as an incumbent. This has been a Republican seat for 18 years," he said.

The CBO will report new health care legislation would cut the federal budget deficit by $130B over the its first decade and by $1.2T over the second decade, according to a senior House Dem aide.

The CBO report, to be released today, will project the bill will cost $940B over the decade, and that it will be fully paid for. The bill would reduce annual growth in Medicare expenditures by 1.4% per year, extending Medicare's life by 9 years.

The news is a boost for Dems searching for the 216 votes they need to pass a reform package. Several wavering members of Congress have said they are concerned about cost containment; now, armed with the CBO's rosy projections, Dem leadership could win over several members who voted against the bill the first time around.

The bill is now headed to the House Rules Committee, where Dems will finalize their options for moving forward. Floor action is expected on Sunday, 72 hours after the bill gets posted online.

Already, several members who voted against the legislation the first time around have said they will announce their decisions today. Dem strategists are optimistic any members who make their stands public today, on the heels of the CBO score, are likely to help them pick up momentum.

A day after Sen. Barbara Boxer's (D-CA) camp announced that Pres. Obama would be traveling to Los Angeles for a joint fundraiser next month, a new Field Poll shows Boxer locked in tight races with each of the GOPers vying to challenge her in Nov.

Ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R) leads the GOP field, posting a 6-point advantage over ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R). But Campbell, Fiorina and Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R) each run virtually even with Boxer in general-election matchups.

The Field Poll surveyed 748 likely voters from Mar. 9-15, with a margin of error of +/- 3.6%. There was an oversample of 353 likely GOP primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 5.2%.

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
Campbell  28% (-2 from 1/17)
Fiorina   22  (-3)
DeVore     9  (+3)

General Election Matchups
Campbell  44% (+6)         Boxer     45% (-5)
Boxer     43  (-5)         Fiorina   44  (+9)

Boxer     45% (-6)
DeVore    41  (+7)

Boxer's favorability has taken a big hit. A majority, 51%, of likely voters now view her unfavorably, with only 38% having a favorable impression of the incumbent. In the previous poll, taken in Jan., 48% viewed Boxer favorably, with 39% having an unfavorable image of her.

The GOP candidates remain little-known, with a majority of likely voters having no opinion of each of them.

"I could have put your name against Boxer, and you'd have gotten half the votes," Field Poll dir. Mark DiCamillo told a McClatchy reporter. "It's really not about the candidates themselves."

In a possible sign of Dems' concern over Boxer's re-election, the Boxer camp announced late yesterday that Obama would attend a joint fundraiser for their camp and the DNC in mid-April, though details have not yet been finalized.

The poll's findings are consistent with numbers released yesterday in the GOV race that showed ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) claiming a slight lead over AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D).

The GOP primary, meanwhile, remains fairly open, with 41% of likely voters still undecided. Fiorina leads among Boomers, but Campbell runs stronger with voters 65 and older. In Jan., Campbell held a similar, 5-point lead over Fiorina, just days after switching from the GOV race to challenge Boxer.

"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with health care reform.

Pres. Obama sat down with FNC's Baier for an interview that ran, uninterrupted, on "Special Report" 3/17 p.m.

Obama, on whether he can be a "transformative" POTUS if health care doesn't pass: "I came in at a time when we probably had the toughest economic challenges since the Great Depression. A year later, we can say that although we're still a long way from where we need to be, that we have made the economy stronger, it's not rowing again. We have created a financial situation that is vastly better than it was before. ... We're taking steps on energy. We're doing a whole bunch of things out there that are going to create the foundation for long-term economic growth."

Obama, on whether it will "diminish" his presidency if health care doesn't pass: "If it doesn't pass, I'm more concerned about what it does to families out there who right now are getting crushed by rising health care cost and small businesses who were having to make a decision do I hire or do I fix health care? That's the reason I make these decisions."

Obama, on whether he thinks health care will pass: "I do. I'm confident it will pass. And the reason I'm confident that it's going to pass is because it's the right thing to do."

After the jump, more from Obama, and other pols on health care.

While GOPers in the House and Senate appear to be holding ranks in their unanimous opposition to health care reform and allied interest groups are pouring millions of dollars into 11th-hour television ads to defeat the measure, GOP operatives and lobbyists nevertheless believe the legislation is likely to pass, according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

GOP and Dem Insiders were asked to rate on a scale of 0 to 10 -- with zero being no chance at all -- the likelihood that Congress will pass health care reform. The average score of the Dem Insiders was 7.9 among the 101 who participated, and among the 100 GOP Insiders the average score was 6.5.

To put those figures in some context, they are very similar to the ratings that Dem and GOP Insiders gave in Oct. '06, when assessing the chances that the Dems were going to recapture the House in that year's midterms.

In a Political Insiders Poll published on Oct. 14, the GOP Insiders rated Dem chances of taking over the House on a scale to 0 to 10 as a 6.7 and the Dem Insiders rated it a 7.7. Likewise, 56% of the GOP Insiders said there was a high likelihood -- they gave a rating of 7 or higher -- that Congress would pass health care reform. In Oct. '06, 60% of the GOP Insiders said that there was a high likelihood Dems would recapture the House.

But GOP Insiders are upbeat in believing Dems will pay a price for their success in Nov. As one GOP Insider put it, "They've come this far so now they have to drive over the cliff." Said another: "The Democrats have enough internal divisions to scuttle this, but where there is a will there is a way. And they seem to have the will."

Good Thursday morning. Have your brackets in? Make your final picks, as the first tipoffs happen in just a few hours.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

DOUGLAS ELMENDORF: The CBO director has yet to release a final score for a reconciliation package, likely forcing Dems to hold a final vote on health care reform as late as Sunday. Dem leaders had initially hoped to hold the vote on Saturday, but the delay in getting cost estimates has likely nixed that possibility.

Elmendorf's numbers, which could be released as early as this morning, will give Dems the final cudgel they can use to entice wavering members. Reps. Dennis Kucinich's (D-OH) and Dale Kildee's (D-MI) announcements yesterday that they would back the Senate bill and the reconciliation procedure were important momentum-builders for Dems, and once final language is released, the party needs to keep that ball rolling.

GOPers have long cited increased taxes contained in the bill as they hammer away at Dems, and a CBO score will give the majority a good counter-argument. In fact, what may be the most effective way for Dems to convince the hold-outs to vote for the bill would be to build a strong communications plan for selling the bill after it passes. So far, the GOP has won the messaging war, and Dems know it.

REP. JERRY COSTELLO: The IL Dem, along with perhaps a dozen others, remains concerned with the bill's abortion provisions, and despite serious arm-twisting and cajolling, he and his fellows are still "no" votes. Even as Rep. Jim Oberstar (D-MN), one of the most pro-life Dems in the House, says he will vote for the bill, others remain unconvinced.

Speaker Nancy Pelosi is in a political bind: If she can win over members like Costello, Reps. Collin Peterson (D-MN) and Rick Boucher (D-VA), long-time incumbents will be the ones defending their votes this fall. Those incumbents have roots in their districts, relationships with their constituents and they could survive a political wave that would wash less grounded members out (Then again, tell that to Tom Foley, the former Speaker of the House who lost his seat in the '94 landslide).

It's been a banner week for state Rep. Cory Gardner (R), one of the GOP's top House challengers. He's seeking to topple freshman Rep. Betsy Markey (D-CO 04) and bring her historically GOP seat back into the fold.

On 3/16, GOP delegates at precinct caucuses in his CD's two biggest counties gave him overwhelming victories, and today, his top primary challenger -- ex-Ft. Collins Councilor Diggs Brown (R) -- withdrew from the race and endorsed him.

The caucus votes, which are the first step in the party endorsement process, were huge victories for Gardner. On the same night, both parties' establishment choices for SEN -- ex-LG Jane Norton (R) and Sen. Michael Bennet (D) -- were tripped up by insurgent challengers at the caucuses. But Gardner's grassroots support enabled him to survive such a challenge. In a year where the "outsider" tag is an attractive one, it's impressive that an establishment candidate can walk successfully between the two camps.

Brown's exit, likely spurred on by the results, should give Gardner the opportunity to focus on Markey, who sits in a very marginal, and expansive, seat that includes the rural eastern border and fast-growing Greeley and Fort Collins. He faces two other GOP candidates in the primary, but they have been non-factors so far. Gardner is from Yuma Co., the rural part of the state, and will need to introduce himself to voters in the more populous regions. His nearly $400K warchest, though, should aid him in that cause.

Markey's voting record gives Gardner plenty of ammunition as well. She's voted for the stimulus, the cap-and-trade bill, and while she voted "no" on the health care bill the first time around, she's pondering a "yes" vote on the Senate version. In a CD that gave John McCain 50%, a "yes" vote on all three may be too much for her to handle.

Depending on which poll you believe, either Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) has a 6-point lead over ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R), or Toomey leads Specter by the same margin.

Both polls were of likely voters, and both sampled roughly the same ratios of Dems to GOPers. And while the results seem divergent, both showed leads inside the respective margins of error. But both pollsters still sampled distinctly different electorates.

A Susquehanna poll, the one that showed Toomey ahead, tested a universe in which just 23% of respondents were under the age of 45. An independent Research 2000 poll conducted for the liberal DailyKos website tested a sample in which 43% of voters were under 45 years old.

Voters 60 years of age and over comprised 33% of Susquehanna's voters but just 21% of R2K's. Those younger than 45 are more likely to favor Specter, while those over 60 prefer Toomey.

Exit poll data from '06 -- a midterm election featuring a GOV race and a competitive SEN race -- shows an electorate somewhere in the middle of the two polls. In '06, 35% of voters were under the age of 45, while voters 60 and older accounted for 29% of the total electorate.

Susquehanna Pres. Jim Lee says his firm didn't weight their sample according to age. But he pointed to Susquehanna's use of a voter file, rather than dialing random phone numbers, as accounting for the disparity.

Susquehanna contacted only voters with positive vote history in four previous general elections: '08, '07, '06 and '05. A voter who had only cast a ballot in '08 was disqualified, unless they were not previously registered to vote.

"That, to me, has always been the difference I've seen," said Lee. "You know these are people who have a proven record of voting."

But Research 2000 Pres. Del Ali said he finds Susquehanna's age breakdown "kinda bizarre," pointing to the fact that only 5% of their sample was under the age of 30.

R2K does weight, Ali said, using exit polling, demographics, and what he called an "educated guess" using his background in social science. But he reiterated that the poll's sponsor, DailyKos, had no input when it comes to methodology.

"[They say] do your thing," said Ali. "You do the weighting. You do the order of questions. You do the screening."

Whichever campaign is better able to turn out the age demographic that most backs them is likely to make one of the 2 pollsters look much more prescient.

The RNC has polled issues that may be included in an updated version of the Contract with America, the committee's top pollster confirmed today.

The pollster, Wes Anderson, would not specify what has been polled. He only said the committee has tested "a bunch of stuff" as top GOP leaders prepare to roll out a new set of principles around which candidates from across the country can unite.

Building the Contract, though, has been an endeavor cloaked in secrecy. Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has been put in charge of crafting the document by House Min. Leader John Boehner, and NRSC chair John Cornyn has indicated his conference is involved as well. But GOPers will not discuss the negotiations, which are still in the early stages, for fear of losing their jobs.

The Contract may prove key to the GOP's efforts to take back Congress. And GOPers have reason to be optimistic about those efforts, according to a new national survey conducted for the party.

The RNC's internal polling shows a statistical tie between Dems and GOPers on the generic House ballot. GOPers lead by a single point, 37%-36%, including leaners, and 27% remain undecided. Now, top officials at the RNC are buying into the notion that the party is more likely than not to win back the House, a prospect Reps. Eric Cantor (R-VA) and Mike Pence (R-IN) have touted in recent months.

The health care debate has only helped, the data show, both by brining down Pres. Obama's approval rating and by throwing Speaker Nancy Pelosi into the national spotlight.

Most speakers are relatively anonymous, but pollsters on both sides of the aisle say Pelosi is known by an audience as wide as that which knew Newt Gingrich in the late '90s. Back then, Gingrich began to hurt his party in some GOP districts. Now, the GOP hopes they can make Pelosi the issue.

"There is a reason why you see Republican candidates all over the country using her as a foil," Anderson said. "The health care spotlight over the last year [since special elections in NY-20 and NY-23] has put her front and center."

Dems have never believed Pelosi will be an effective attack for the GOP. Though health care has made her better-known, her role was well-established before voters elected Rep. Bill Owens (D) in NY-23. And the GOP tried, and failed, to use Pelosi for effect in both the '06 and '08 cycles.

"Republicans' entire strategy is attacking a person, rather than offering any new ideas," said DCCC spokesperson Ryan Rudominer. "It may motivate their base, it may work for their donors, but it doesn't work with swing voters."

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) is highlighting her experience and clout in her third ad, turning to a tried and true technique entrenched incumbents use to win over voters.

Lincoln is the first senator from AR to chair the powerful Agriculture Committee, a post she has used to bring pork back to her home state. AR has waited 184 years for a Gem Stater to ascend to the post, the ad says, and it shouldn't waste the opportunity.

According to Lincoln spokesperson Katie Niebaum, agriculture makes up 25% of AR's economy and provides 270K jobs.

"In the entire history of country, do you know how many Arkansans have been chairman of the United States Senate Agriculture committee? Just one. Only Blanche Lincoln. Blanche just forced the Department of Agriculture to put 700 Arkansans back to work in the Ouchita and Ozark forests," says L.D. Brantley, a farmer featured in the ad. "And she got special disaster aid for us Arkansas farmers. It took us 184 years to get that chairmanship. I don't know why we would want to give it up."

For Brantley, at least, Lincoln has been an effective senator. According to the Environmental Working Group's farm subsidy database, the Brantley Farming Co. received $6.8M in federal subsidies from 1995-2006, including $4.1M for cotton, $2.3M for rice, $209K for soybeans, $133K for wheat, $78K for corn and $6.7K for sorghum. $4.7M worth of payments went to Lonoke Co. and $2.1M went to Stalcotn Cotton Cooperative.

"Sen. Lincoln is in a tremendous position of benefit for Arkansas in this respect," said Niebaum. Since Lincoln assumed the chairmanship in Sept. '09, Niebaum said Lincoln has been able to secure a $4M increase for an AR timber sales program, pushed a disaster assistance package through the Senate in 3 months and is now working on a child nutrition bill called the Healthy Hunger-Free Kids Act.

Lincoln's ad, "184 Years":

At the same time Dems are considering hardball tactics to get health care legislation over its final hurdles, Speaker Nancy Pelosi's office is urging members to tout "sunshine" rules that promote government accountability.

Today, the House takes up a measure requiring federal agencies to use simple language in writing official documents; a proposal to ensure e-mails are preserved by federal archivists; and a bill that would require members to use the money left in their annual office accounts to pay down the debt.

The good-government proposals come as GOPers cry foul over Pelosi's suggestion the majority could use so-called "deem and pass" measures to force the Senate health care bill through the House without an actual vote.

"During Sunshine Week, which focuses on the importance of open government and freedom of information, Congress is taking action to make the government more accountable, transparent and responsive to the American people," reads a fact sheet distributed to House Dems' offices, and which was provided to Hotline OnCall by an incredulous Dem aide.

"The public's right to know what its government is doing is fundamental to a thriving democracy and critical to empowering the American people to play an active role in their government, and to giving them access to information that makes their lives better and their communities stronger," the document reads.

GOPers have spent the week denouncing the proposal to use the controversial parliamentary maneuver, calling instead for an up-or-down vote. Earlier today, House Maj. Leader Steny Hoyer promised an up-or-down vote, but, in an appearance on "Good Morning America," he defended self-executing rules as "not an unusual procedure."

Ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) has her first lead in a Quinnipiac poll over her primary rival, but both major GOP contenders trail the likely Dem nominee by wide margins, the new survey shows.

The poll, conducted March 9-15, surveyed 1,451 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 2.6%. A subsample of 387 self-identified GOPers carried a margin of error of +/- 5%. McMahon, ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R) and investor Peter Schiff (R) were tested, as was AG Richard Blumenthal (D).

Primary Election Matchup
McMahon       44% (+17 from last, Jan. 14)
Simmons       34  (-3)
Schiff         9  (+5)

General Election Matchups
Blumenthal    62% (+0)    Blumenthal    61% (-3)
Simmons       26  (-1)    McMahon       28  (+5)
Blumenthal    64% (-2)
Schiff        21  (+2)

McMahon has been the only candidate to run ads on TV, and that's fueled her rise in the polls, Quinnipiac poll director Douglas Schwartz said. She also leads Simmons among the 50% of GOPers who identify themselves with the Tea Party movement by a 47%-29% margin, with 11% going for Schiff.

Meanwhile, Blumenthal's 70% favorable rating is so high his big leads are to be expected. Simmons (38% fav, 21% unfav) and McMahon (36% fav, 26% unfav) both have net-favorable ratings, but about 4 in 10 voters don't know enough about either to form an opinion. And 60% say Blumenthal's experience as AG makes them more likely to vote for him this Nov.

An even number of voters say Simmons' experience in Congress makes them more or less likely to vote for him, while McMahon's experience as head of WWE makes 31% of voters less likely to back her and just 15% more inclined to support her.

You've seen our explanations of each category (You haven't? Then click here). Now, the latest updates on the health care whip count:

Because members who are willing to vote for the bill are more likely to stay undecided until the last minute, it is more effective to count the number of incumbents voting against the bill. In order to defeat the bill, GOPers need 216 votes -- or 38 Dems to join every member of the GOP conference. So far, they appear to be 19 votes short.

Opponents of health care reform appear to have 197 votes secured, including 178 GOPers and 19 Dems who have said definitively they will vote against the bill. Over the past few days, Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-NC) is the only member to say he will vote against the bill. So far, only Reps. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) and Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) have said they will switch their "yes" votes to a "no."

An important side note: Any member who says they oppose the bill in its current form is leaving the door wide open to casting a vote for the final package. We're still calling those members undecided. That makes our count much more conservative than those conducted by CNN or the NRCC.

The latest to be added to the undecided list: Rep. Adam Smith (D-WA), a New Dem who told McClatchy's Les Blumenthal he could vote "for the Senate bill and against reconciliation." Dems still see Smith as a vote on their side.

Rep. Allen Boyd (D-FL) has not publicly stated his opposition, but he voted against the shell bill in the Budget Committee, so we're calling him a lean no. Reps. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) and Marion Berry (D-AR), 2 members who expressed concern over the bill's abortion provisions, voted for the bill in committee.

Meanwhile, proponents of the bill have several wins of late. Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ), a potential GOP target, said she would vote for the bill in a statement last night. Today, Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) said he would switch his "no" vote to a "yes."

GOPers are pessimistic about keeping Reps. Scott Murphy (D-NY) and Suzanne Kosmas (D-FL) on their side. Both met with Pres. Obama earlier this week to discuss their votes.

Dem Targets: No On Reform, No On Stupak

Dem Longshots: No On Reform, Yes On Stupak

After the jump, the GOP targets and the GOP longshots.

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) has launched his first ad of his political career, casting himself as a DC outsider as he seeks a full term in the Senate.

Bennet's ad tracks closely with that of his far more conservative colleague, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), and it's a theme we're likely to see repeated from incumbents and challengers alike: DC is broken, and I'm the person to fix it.

Lincoln's first ad depicted her surrounded by children fighting over money. In Bennet's, he suggests freezing Congressional pay, stripping members of their health insurance and banning members from ever becoming lobbyists.

"I've been in Washington for only a year, but it didn't take that long to see the whole place is broken," Bennet says in the spot. "It's time to give them a wake up call."

It's little wonder even incumbents are running so hard against DC. A new NBC/WSJ poll out today shows just 17% of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing, only 5 points above its all-time lowest mark. Even Dems don't like Congress; 69% of all self-ID'd Dems say they disapprove of Congress's job performance, the poll shows (only slightly lower than the 79% of indies and 86% of GOPers who disapprove; special thanks to the NBC political unit for crunching those numbers for us).

Bennet is spending serious money on his first ad, aimed at introducing himself to CO voters. He has purchased a total of $340K in air time, including 775 points in the Denver market and 600 points in more conservative Colorado Springs, according to a source with access to the spending data.

Cable viewers will also see the spots; Bennet is spending $310K on broadcast ads and an additional $30K on cable TV time. The ads are scheduled to run for 2 weeks.

Bennet's first ad, "Wake Up":

The person happiest to see Pres. Obama sign health care legislation -- should Congress succeed in sending a bill to the WH -- will be Sec/State Hillary Rodham Clinton, her husband Bill Clinton told National Journal yesterday.

"I'll probably -- maybe Hillary will be the happiest person in America -- I'll be the second happiest person. Even more than President Obama; even more than Rahm [Emanuel]; even more than all the people who have been laboring for this forever. I just want it to pass, and I think it will."

Should Obama receive a bill in the next few weeks that he can sign, Clinton said, "I'm going to be one happy fella. It takes a long time to get these things done, and I will be happy. And I think -- it doesn't have to be perfect. Whatever happens, we're going to have to be working on this for 5 years.

"Just remember on Jan. 8, we had that economic study from the economist at USC [University of Southern California] and Harvard [University] saying that if any version of these bills that were batting around passes, it will bend the cost curve on health care so much that it will add 250,000 to 400,000 jobs a year to the economy for a decade," Clinton said.

Clinton met with Senate Dems during their weekly policy luncheon to speak about climate change and the need for legislative action on energy.

As the dust begins to settle and Dems coalesce around Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), questions about the future of the $13M warchest Bayh holds have yet to be answered.

Shortly after Bayh announced his intention to retire rather than run for re-election, Dems began to quietly salivate over the huge cash haul. Yet they have had to tip toe around the retiring Bayh, who has not indicated how he will distribute the money.

"Sen. Bayh hasn't made any decisions on his campaign fund yet. What he has said is that you can expect him to help the Democratic Senate nominee in Indiana and to help like-minded Democrats," said Bayh spokesperson Peter True.

Last week, Bayh sent out a fundraising letter urging support for Ellsworth, but there is still no indication of exactly how much direct monetary support Bayh may provide him, the IN Dem Party or the DSCC.

Dems are reluctant to talk about how much help they expect. "I don't think that there is an expectation. I think that after his announcement, the Senator indicated he would be helpful to the nominee, in a large way. What that is, I think only the Senator knows," IN Dem Chair Dan Parker said when asked what kind of help he expects.

Parker, who also used to manage Bayh's SEN campaign, added: "The only request I've made is to be as generous as possible," referring to the needs of both the IN Dems and the Ellsworth camp. "The amount is unknown, but he did say he would be helpful to the nominee."

"We expect him to play a role in helping the Democratic nominee, which, obviously, we think is going to be Brad," said Ellsworth spokesperson Liz Farrar.

With both the NRSC and DSCC respectively targeting Ellsworth and ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R) -- the likely GOP frontrunner -- already, a potential Ellsworth-Coats general election matchup is looking more like a high profile and expensive affair, in which Ellsworth could certainly use a generous contribution from Bayh come the fall.

One of the big challenges Bayh presented to potential opponents was the prospect of running against such a prolific fundraiser. For Ellsworth, the challenge will be to sustain enthusiasm among Bayh supporters in a tough '10 climate. If he does end up getting a significant boost from Bayh in the near future, it may assuage uncertainty among some Dem voters who may not yet be sure that Ellsworth can pack the same monetary punch in a competitive race.

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, Coats has been a target for Dems since the moment he jumped into the race. Forced to take on a steady stream of attacks over his lobbying background and time spent away from IN, he has been forced to respond to criticism on many different fronts. Nonetheless, recent polling suggests an extremely close Coats-Ellsworth matchup.

Coats has other remaining challenges. He recently finished last in a Tea Party straw poll, and should he advance to the general election, he will no doubt need to generate broad support from all wings of the GOP -- including Tea Party voters, who, at least so far, have not taken to him.

In the House and elsewhere in recent days, the talk has been about obscure terms such as budget reconciliation, self-executing rules, deemed bills and the like. Debate over such procedural niceties is appropriate -- and all too rare in Congress and among the media.

But the skirmishing has obscured the huge stakes underlying the maneuvering and the vote on health reform that House Dem leaders have planned for this weekend.

This is a week for the history books, one way or another. The participants understand that, which helps to explain the intensity of the procedural maneuverings. But some are disinclined to focus on the broad impact, if only because they are too anxious to consider the ramifications if their side fails.

The historic dimensions are on 2 levels: national policy and internal House politics.

The fate of H.R. 3590, which the Senate passed last Christmas Eve, could be the culmination of nearly 80 years of Dem efforts to provide some form of health insurance coverage for virtually all Americans. In their '09 book, The Heart of Power, David Blumenthal and James Morone explored how presidents since Franklin Roosevelt have approached the issue.

"Because health care reform is excruciatingly difficult to win, it tests presidents' ideas, heart, luck, allies and their skill at running the most complicated government machinery in the world," the authors wrote.

By any standard, Lyndon Johnson has been the most successful in expanding health-care coverage, with the '65 legislation creating Medicare and Medicaid. The subsequent health-reform failures of Jimmy Carter and Bill Clinton marred their historic records. A third failure would seem devastating for Barack Obama and the Dems. Indeed, the most significant health-reform legislation since '65 was the prescription-drug coverage that a GOP president and Congress enacted in '03. The bipartisan enactment in '88 of catastrophic-insurance coverage was repealed a year later by similar bipartisan forces.

The stakes are comparable for Speaker Nancy Pelosi and her Dem majority. It's not unusual for a speaker of either party to roll the dice on a vital bill, without advance assurance of success. But when that has happened, the majority party almost always has prevailed, especially with the many inducements that a speaker and president of the same party can offer. In this context, a decision not to force a final vote in the next week would be comparable to an actual loss.

As Pelosi has frequently said in the past year, "Failure is not an option." For her legacy, that is true in the context of both health reform and her Speakership.

Failure would be "a vote of no confidence" by the House -- and its majority party -- in Pelosi, said a senior House GOP leadership aide, who expected that she would win if only because the political consequences of defeat would be so dire for Dems, including in the approaching midterm elections. With a new Gallup poll showing 80% disapprove of how Congress is handling its job -- the worst in the 36 years in which Gallup has asked that question -- there would be little public interest or patience in Dem excuses.

It's no coincidence that GOPers recently have raised other controversial internal issues such as earmark reforms and ethical challenges that create additional tensions among Dems. The GOP goal has been to maximize the pain leading to the health reform vote.

A senior Dem leadership aide this week agreed that the stakes are high, and voiced confidence about victory. If he is right, the Dems' deep sigh of relief would be almost as loud as their cheers. If he is wrong, the consequences for Pelosi and the Dem Caucus likely would be cataclysmic.

"World News" led with the health care fight. "Evening News" led with Tiger Woods' return to golfing. "Nightly News" led with the health care fight.

DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen went on "Campbell Brown" 3/16 p.m.

Van Hollen, on whether Dems "really want" to use a "legislative trick" to pass reform: "What we're finding is our Republican colleagues no longer want to talk about the substance of the bill and the merits of the bill and how it will reduce premiums and how it will prevent insurance companies from denying coverage to people who have preexisting conditions, and they want to focus on process."

More Van Hollen: "But what they're not telling people is that what we're going to pass in the House is an amended version of the Senate bill. They are trying very hard to create the impression that the House is just going to be passing the Senate bill. And that's not the case. ... So, these are a little bit of crocodile tears, I have to say."

Van Hollen: "We're going to be voting up or down on health care reform. We're going to be voting up or down on the issue of the Senate bill as we're modifying it to take out those provisions that I think the American public wants us to take out, like the Nebraska deal, and include the other provisions, like the crackdown on waste, fraud and abuse in Medicare, that some of our Republican colleagues proposed. They're going to get an up-or-down vote."

After the jump, more from other pols and pundits on health care.

Ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) has opened up a narrow lead in the CA GOV race on AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D), while also assuming a commanding advantage in the GOP primary over Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R), according to a new Field Poll released today.

The poll surveyed 748 likely voters from Mar. 9-15, with a margin of error of +/- 3.6%. There was an oversample of 353 likely GOP primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 5.2%. The poll tested Whitman and Poizner among GOPers, and then each against Brown among the main sample.

Primary Election Matchup (GOPers)
Whitman  63% (+18 from 1/17)
Poizner  14  (- 3)

General Election Matchups
Whitman  46% (+10)      Brown    49% (+ 1)
Brown    43  (- 3)      Poizner  32  (+ 1)

The poll represents a surge in support for Whitman. Last Oct., Whitman trailed Brown among registered voters, 50%-29%. In Jan., she had narrowed Brown's lead to 10 points among likely voters.

CA voters are beginning to view Whitman more favorably. In Oct., just 18% of registered voters had a favorable image of Whitman. In the current poll, 40% of likely voters view her favorably; 27% view her unfavorably -- a result of the huge ad campaigns Whitman has run over the last several months.

Whitman has already announced she has put $40M into her own bid, while Poizner has spent $19M of his own money.

Good Wednesday morning, and happy St. Patrick's Day. If you're anywhere near the Capitol today, watch out for the Taoiseach of Ireland, Brian Cowen. A few years ago, a Secret Service agent not so gently moved your OnCall editor out of the way to let then-PM Bertie Ahern go by.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make news in politics today:

PRES. OBAMA: Besides doing the ceremonial honors of hosting Cowen in the Oval Office, attending the annual Friends of Ireland luncheon on Capitol Hill and hosting his own St. Patrick's Day reception, Obama will continue calling members of Congress sitting on the fence over health care reform. He got a win yesterday when Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ), a yes vote the first time around and a possible GOP target, said she would vote for the legislation again this time.

Kirkpatrick, like other potentially vulnerable Dems, has been hit with an ad barrage from the Chamber of Commerce and other anti-reform groups, and the NRCC has cut an ad they could run against her if she indeed votes in favor. But her statement reads like a recognition that this vote is bigger than her career, and that she's willing to take her lumps, and her chances, this fall.

In an interview on MSNBC yesterday, ex-Rep. Marjorie Margolies Mezvinsky (D-PA) recounted her vote for Bill Clinton's '93 budget and the reaction from some GOPers, who waved goodbye as she voted in favor. Voting for health care isn't necessarily the death knell for incumbent Dems, but more than a few will have MMM in mind when they cast their votes.

UNDECIDED DEMS: Obama is likely to get another win this morning, when, at 10 a.m., Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) announces his intentions on the bill. Obama flew Kucinich to and from his Cleveland-based district earlier this week for a health care rally, and Kucinich, who opposed the bill the first time because it didn't go far enough, seemed to back off his opposition during the trip.

If Kucinich comes out in favor of the bill, he will represent a caucus of one -- the lone liberal left (after ex-Rep. Eric Massa's departure) who voted against the bill because it didn't include a public option. He's unlikely to sway other liberals like Reps. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) and Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), who have concerns over immigration provisions rather than the public option.

Instead, Speaker Nancy Pelosi and the WH will be back persuading vulnerable Dems and centrists to support the bill.

To get a sense of where the vote count stands, House GOPers say they are just 11 votes shy of defeating the bill, while consensus among Dems is that the party is closer to the 216 mark than GOPers, but they're still 5 or 6 votes short.

Here's something you don't see every day: A Dem castigating labor unions in a paid media campaign.

In her latest ad, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) takes direct shots at labor unions who are aiding her opponent, LG Bill Halter (D).

"Who's the 'us' that I'm not working for?" Lincoln asks, referencing an ad running against her in the newly competitive primary. "That ad is paid for by a bunch of Washington, DC, unions. And they're right: I'm not working for them. I work for you."

National unions have pledged $4M for independent expenditure campaigns against Lincoln and for Halter. Lincoln has said she opposes the Employee Free Choice Act, and her concern over health care drove unions and progressive groups into Halter's arms.

Lincoln has also wasted little time in attacking Halter, who she accuses of going back on a promise. "Bill Halter gave me his word this would be a positive campaign," Lincoln says at the close of the ad. "That didn't last long."

The ad, "Blanche Lincoln's Response":

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) has paid back a prominent backer of his WH'08 campaign with a timely endorsement, his PAC announced today.

Romney is backing state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) in the race to replace SC Gov. Mark Sanford (R), 2 years after Haley helped Romney in the crucial SC primary. Romney's Free and Strong America PAC gave Haley $3,500 for her race.

It's the latest example of a WH'08 contender returning the favor for an endorsement 2 years ago. Ex-Sen. Fred Thompson (R) is on Rep. Gresham Barrett's (R) side, and Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) has sent a fundraising letter on behalf of AG Henry McMaster.

Only ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) has not endorsed his most prominent SC backer in '08 -- LG Andre Bauer (R).

McMaster and Barrett are seen as the front-running candidates, with Haley seen as a long-shot. Haley was close to Sanford before the incumbent's political implosion, when she distanced herself.

Still, Romney's SC team is closer to Barrett than to Haley. Romney's general consultant in '08, Warren Tompkins, is guiding Barrett's campaign, while his '08 state manager, Terry Sullivan, is backing Barrett. Barrett's manager, Luke Byars, is a former top aide to Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) who sources said was instrumental in arranging for DeMint's endorsement of Romney in '08.

While most believe Romney is set to run again in '12, few GOP operatives think he has a realistic shot at winning in SC, where he came in a distant 4th in '08, even with DeMint's backing.

Ex-CO LG Jane Norton (R) leads the GOP field in her bid to face Sen. Michael Bennet (D), but a costly primary is already sapping Norton of much-needed resources as she heads into an early test of strength.

Norton has spent $243K on TV ads since announcing her candidacy, including a recent surge in the run-up to tonight's caucuses. The ads urge GOPers to attend the caucuses which, even though they are non-binding, could serve as an embarrassment if she loses to either of her less-well-known rivals.

The run-up to the statewide caucuses "is hugely labor-intensive. It's all-consuming for a campaign," said GOP pollster Nicole McClesky, a veteran of CO campaigns who is not affiliated with a candidate this year. Even if Norton loses tonight, McClesky said, "she's the front-runner."

But as in other states where the GOP's establishment favorite has run into roadblocks, Norton is finding trouble on her right flank. If Norton loses to either of her 2 rivals tonight, it will be evidence that the GOP activist class is not ready to coalesce around a candidate yet, and that attacks on Norton's record are having an impact.

Weld Co. DA Ken Buck (R) and state Sen. Tom Wiens (R) have been making inroads by hammering Norton on her record, especially on Referendum C, an '05 measure approved by voters that allowed CO to take in more than it had been allowed to under a Taxpayers' Bill of Rights.

Most incumbent politicians on both sides of the aisle, including Norton and Gov. Bill Owens (R), supported the bill.

At least one rival has backers with deep pockets. The Declaration Alliance, a group backing conservative candidates, is running ads slamming Norton for her record as LG. Norton's campaign says the group's major funder supports Buck; the group did not return calls seeking comment.

"This is a 527 group that's tied to Ken Buck, and it's unfortunate," said Nate Strauch, Norton's spokesman. "He has someone very wealthy behind him who has decided they're going to circumvent campaign finance laws and try to buy a senator."

Still, Norton's camp, while not directly responding to the Alliance's $115K in ad spending so far, is pursuing their own expensive strategy. Norton's $243K spent on ad buys so far amount to more than a third of her campaign bank balance at the end of the year, when she finished with $595K on hand.

"It is surprising to me to see third-party ads starting this early," said CO GOP chief Dick Wadhams, who is staying neutral in the party primary.

Wadhams said he is determined to keep the primary from devolving into bitter name-calling, though he did say there would be "some give and take" between the contenders. And GOPers remain optimistic they have a good chance to win back the seat, given both Norton's strength and the animus building between Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and his primary rival, ex-House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D).

"They're going to have a bloody primary of their own. Whoever comes out of that is going to be wounded and pretty far to the left," McClesky said. Norton "can probably raise the resources that are needed to be competitive, and she's an attractive candidate."

Whether Norton will have any of those resources left after what already appears to be an expensive primary remains to be seen.

Dems can salvage political goodwill from the messy and electorally painful health care bill, but only if they invest the time and resources necessary to convince voters it was a good idea to pass the mammoth package, according to a top Dem pollster.

A survey conducted across vulnerable Dem districts shows most voters warm to the proposal once they learn more about it, according to a copy of a memo obtained from Capitol Hill and political sources. Included in the poll were 92 districts held by Frontline Dems and Blue Dogs, districts where Dem incumbents would feel the most heat for supporting the legislation.

Dems will target white middle-aged voters, white women under 65 and white married women. Those groups respond most positively when Dems explain what is in the bill, pollsters found.

The poll, conducted by prominent Dem pollster John Anzalone, who conducted some polling for Pres. Obama during the '08 campaign, shows a plurality of voters currently oppose the health care bill; just 35% of swing voters favor the bill based on what they know about it. But when they hear more about it, 51% of all voters, and 50% of swing voters support the measure.

Dems should focus on provisions of the bill that require coverage even if someone has a pre-existing condition, and on a provision that requires members of Congress to have the same coverage as other Americans, Anzalone writes in the polling memo.

"Not only are they the most popular components of reform among voters overall, but also among key audiences, including seniors. Based on these results, any messaging in support of reform -- to any audience -- should prominently highlight these components," Anzalone and pollster Matt Hogan wrote.

And though Dems have taken heat for the process by which health care legislation has progressed this year, expect the party to argue that their efforts to allow a majority vote on the bill were justified. Those who back reform "should avoid process debates," the pollsters write, but they say Dems can use the argument that no 60-vote requirement is in the Constitution effectively.

Anzalone's poll surveyed 2,010 likely voters in 92 districts held by Dem incumbents. Those incumbents included members of the DCCC's Frontline program for vulnerable Dems; conservative Blue Dog Dems; and those who hold rural districts. It was conducted for AFSCME, CWA and the NEA, 3 pro-reform labor unions.

The NRCC is threatening to run early ad campaigns against Dems who vote in favor of health care legislation, the party announced today, potentially committing scarce resources to score valuable political points.

The NRCC said today it would prepare ads to run against 42 incumbent Dems, including those who found themselves on both sides of the health care vote in Nov. If those members vote for the bill later this week, the NRCC will attack.

But just how much they will spend will depend on how much they have in the bank today. The NRCC had just $4.1M as of Jan. 31, well below the DCCC's bank balance, and with several special elections looming, the party has to consider how much it will spend on health care ads. Too, the NRCC has to begin planning for an expensive independent expenditure campaign that's coming right around the corner.

What's more likely is that the NRCC would spend a few thousand dollars to run the ad enough times to earn local media coverage. That's what the party did when they launched ads against Reps. Earl Pomeroy (D-ND), Vic Snyder (D-AR) and John Spratt (D-SC) last Nov., spending a total of $6,300 combined.

Last week, the committee launched an ad against Rep. Gabby Giffords (D-AZ) during the PAC-10 tournament, when the Arizona Wildcats were playing their final game of the season. That ad -- on a cable network in the middle of the day -- likely didn't cost the committee much money either.

Still, earned media is as valuable, if not more so, than paid media, and the ads will generate headlines if and when they air.

The NRCC's ad, "Washington Madness," targeted against Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV):

Top GOP communications strategists have been invited to a political briefing at the RNC on Friday, according to an invitation obtained by Hotline OnCall, in an effort to get DC's professional class on the same page ahead of midterm elections.

The invite came from RNC communications director Doug Heye, who has made a concerted effort to include groups that were overlooked during RNC chair Michael Steele's first year in office. Some within those groups have been the source of criticism over Steele's actions as chairman, though Steele has not caused his party any communications headaches since Jan.

"We wanted to reach out to friends and allies to share with them what we are doing, while at the same time benefiting from their experience and expertise," Heye told Politico this morning.

The invitation comes after a rocky first year for Steele, in which many in the GOP professional class worried that Steele's penchant for off-message gaffes could cost the party financially, if not at the ballot box, this fall.

Lately, some GOP communicators and political professionals have expressed displeasure with the RNC's decision to spend significant resources on an ad campaign featuring Steele himself asking for donations. But since publishing his book in Jan., a move that angered many Capitol Hill GOPers, Steele has kept a lower profile, raising money around the country and staying largely out of the DC headlines.

Other committees frequently invite top communications professionals to luncheon briefings in an effort to get them on the same page. The NRSC, for one, has held frequent briefings with DC strategists, including a sit-down just last Friday.

MA Treas. Tim Cahill (I) will mount an assault this morning on his state's landmark health care legislation, putting him at odds with ex-Gov. Mitt Romney (R).

A former Dem standing against a once and future GOP WH contender should be of little surprise. But when that former Dem is being advised by Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) top advisors, some on the right begin to take note.

"Treasurer Cahill is committed to providing healthcare for all people but feels it is important to speak out against solutions to that end which have proven unsustainable for Massachusetts and will be for our nation as well," campaign manager Adam Meldrum wrote in a memo to the campaign's senior advisors.

Cahill is staking out territory on the right as he mounts an independent bid against Gov. Deval Patrick (D) and the likely GOP nominee, businessman Charlie Baker (R). Baker has support from Romney, but ex-McCain advisors John Weaver, John Yob and Mark Salter are working for Cahill.

Cahill will hold a press conference today at 11 a.m. to criticize Patrick's handling of Commonwealth Care, the health care package passed under Romney's admin. Patrick and Cahill have traded shots over Commonwealth Care occasionally during Patrick's first term.

The skirmish today will skip Baker, Romney's preferred candidate. But Cahill's top advisors are aware of how their actions will look to GOP insiders, and they have signaled they will target Baker by calling him a liberal as much as they will target Patrick's performance over the last 4 years.

The CO primaries are 5 months away, but Dems and GOPers across the state will take the first step toward choosing their '10 GOV and SEN nominees tonight when they convene at their local precinct caucuses. And for Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D), the results could play a large role in the shape of things to come.

Technically, the caucuses function more like a straw poll than an actual nominating event -- the results are not binding, nor do they determine which candidates' names will appear on the ballot in Aug.

But the results do serve as an early indicator of candidates' strength ahead of the real winnowing in May, when candidates must garner at least 30% of the delegate vote at their state party assemb. in order to make the primary ballot.

With Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) running unopposed for the GOV nod, the action on the Dem side will be in the SEN race. And for Romanoff, the question isn't whether he'll clear 30% tomorrow, but whether he can best Bennet, according to independent pollster Floyd Ciruli.

"The only thing Romanoff has is the ability to argue that he's the candidate of rank-and-file Democrats," Ciruli said. If Romanoff takes more than half of the caucus vote, Ciruli added, it will bolster his argument that he's the candidate of the grassroots. And if Romanoff only gets between 30%-50%, Ciruli projected that he'll likely stay in the race, but his supporters may begin to have second thoughts about the viability of his candidacy.

CO Dem strategist David Kenney, who is also an adviser to retiring Gov. Bill Ritter (D) -- who appointed Bennet in '09 -- called the caucuses "a home game" for Romanoff.

"He's supposed to do well here" because he's a "career politician," Kenney said. While he said he expected Romanoff to win, Kenney cautioned that "the caucus isn't the primary," noting that Interior Sec./ex-Sen. Ken Salazar (D) didn't win the state nominating convention in '04 but later prevailed when primary voters went to the polls.

Bennet has the benefit of a comfortable lead in most polls, as well as in fundraising and the support of establishment Dems, including Pres. Obama. But he's also not skimping on pouring resources into tomorrow's vote: Both Ciruli and Kenney noted that Bennet's camp has identified likely Dem caucusgoers and is targeting them with direct mail.

On the GOP side, ex-LG Jane Norton (R) is the frontrunner in the SEN race. Ciruli noted that tomorrow's caucus results will help determine whether Weld Co. DA Ken Buck (R) and ex-state Sen. Tom Wiens (R) join her on the primary ballot. The other declared candidates in the race include physician Robert Greenheck (R), Vincent Martinez (R), atty Steve Barton (R), businessman Cleve Tidwell (R), Gary Kennedy (R) and businessman Mark Van Wyk (R).

"World News" led with the final push for health care reform. "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with Toyota's latest troubles.

Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) went "On the Record" 3/15 p.m.

Stupak, on whether his decision not to vote for the bill has changed since last week: "No, it's not changed at all. We're still not planning on voting for health care unless we can address some concerns. ... What if reconciliation does not get through? I'm sure we can pass it in the House, but what about the Senate? ... We have over 250-some pieces of legislation sitting in the Senate, waiting for them to pass it. Is this going to be another one? ... That's a concern. You're asking us to vote for a very unpopular bill, and the correction may never come."

Stupak, on House Maj. Whip James Clyburn's belief Stupak will end up voting for the bill: "Clyburn's a friend of mine.... And he's never really lobbied me or worked me over on this issue. ... He knows I have deep concerns with this bill, especially on the abortion language. And he also knows that I don't give up until we can get matters resolved. And hopefully, we can resolve these matters yet."

After the jump, more from Stupak and his colleagues.

Good Tuesday morning. Who are you rooting for in tonight's play-in game? We've got Winthrop. Sorry, all you Arkansas Pine-Bluff fans.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

CO VOTERS: Party activists head to precinct caucuses today to pick SEN nominees in a non-binding process that nonetheless could have a profound impact on 2 competitive races. And in both cases, as polls show incumbents around the country doing poorly amid an anti-DC electoral climate, the establishment-backed front runner could have a bad night.

Sen. Michael Bennet (D) is facing voters -- of any kind -- for the first time, while ex-House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) has good relationships with party leaders. Bennet has much more money ahead of the Aug. 10 primary, and a win tonight by a convincing margin could knock Romanoff out of contention. But Romanoff's history in the party makes him the favorite, and if he wins, the freshman senator will face new questions about his viability in Nov.

On the other side, ex-LG Jane Norton (R) was a surprisingly good recruit for the GOP. But she has yet to translate her statewide stature into a lead among the activist class. Norton has lost several straw polls to Tea Party-favored candidates, including Weld Co. DA Ken Buck (R). While Norton remains the favorite in the primary, a poor showing tonight will harm her image as a top recruit.

Check out our comprehensive look at the CO caucuses coming later this morning.

REP. DENNIS KUCINICH: Dems' big problem last week was defending a bill that didn't exist. GOPers were able to capitalize on the vague generalities of a reconciliation fix, while Dems had to scramble to prevent defections from their ranks. Now, the majority has a bill to defend, and they need to show some momentum as they careen toward a vote later this week.

Yesterday, Rep. Jim Oberstar (D-MN) became the first member on our watch list in a while to confirm he will vote for the Senate bill. At the same time, Kucinich, who voted against the bill the first time around because it didn't go far enough, spent quality time with Pres. Obama during a trip to Kucinich's home town of Cleveland as Obama tried to change his vote.

Two of the conservative movement's most vocal and popular figures will appear alongside each other early next month when ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) campaigns with Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) in Minneapolis.

The 2 conservative superstars will headline a free public rally at the Minneapolis Convention Center on April 7, the state party announced today. Palin will also headline fundraisers for the state GOP, vice chair Michael Brodkorb told Hotline OnCall.

"It's a great opportunity. Gov. Palin and [Rep.] Bachmann both have incredibly strong followings here in Minnesota," Brodkorb said. "The response has been just tremendous today."

Brodkorb said the MN GOP had not paid a fee for Palin's appearance.

It will be Palin's second appearance on behalf of a state party. Last month, she headlined an AR GOP fundraiser, which brought in $400K, according to the state party and local reports.

Christiane Amanpour is the winner of ABC's "This Week" sweepstakes, according to FishbowlDC.

Amanpour is reportedly telling people there is a "50-50" chance she'll take the gig as the Sunday show's anchor, where she would replace George Stephanopoulos. Amanpour is also saying that if she does end up taking it, "she wants to make 'This Week' more about foreign affairs and less focused on domestic American politics."

She'd also prefer to anchor from her home base of NYC, instead of DC, from which "This Week" has traditionally been hosted.

ABC spokesperson Emily Lenzner told Hotline OnCall the net still isn't ready to comment on the alleged offer. Said Lenzner: "Nothing has changed since I spoke to Fishbowl this morning. We have nothing to announce at this time."

Amanpour has not been among those ABC has publicly auditioned for the role, though her name has been floated. Since Stephanopoulos left to take over "Good Morning America," several guest hosts -- including Jake Tapper, Jonathan Karl, Terry Moran, Elizabeth Vargas, Matthew Dowd and Barbara Walters -- have taken their turn in the anchor chair.

You've seen our explanations of each category (You haven't? Then click here). Now, the latest updates on the health care whip count:

-- Rep. Jim Oberstar (D-MN), who voted for the first version of the bill and for the Stupak amendment, plans to vote for the bill.

-- GOPers are convinced Rep. Steve Driehaus (D-OH) is a "no" after his comments in the Cincinnati Enquirer, but a spokesperson tells Hotline OnCall he remains undecided.

-- Rep. Jerry Costello (D-IL) opposes the bill "in its current form," and Rep. Chris Carney (D-PA) is concerned with the abortion language.

-- Adding a student loan bill to the reconciliation process won't do much to sway Reps. Allen Boyd (D-FL), Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD) and Michael McMahon (D-NY), all of whom voted against both the House health care bill and the student loan measure, as first pointed out by the New York Times's Herszenhorn.

-- Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) has problems with the immigration provisions in the bill, the same reason Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) cited.

One point to remember: Until late yesterday, there was no legislative language for Dems to defend. Now, they have a reconciliation bill -- posted online last night -- to point to. Many undecided members have said they need to see the final language before they make up their minds.

Now that there's a bill, expect the arm-twisting to begin in earnest. If Dems are able to move votes, that momentum is likely to build in the next several days.

Dem Targets: No On Reform, No On Stupak

Dem Longshots: No On Reform, Yes On Stupak

After the jump, the GOP targets and the GOP longshots.

GOP pollster Glen Bolger tracks an interesting phenomenon by comparing the mood of the electorate with where independent voters are aligning this fall:

A key to understanding the mindset of Independent voters is to compare their views on the right direction/wrong track with the views of Republicans and Democrats. Independents are always somewhere in between the two partisan groups -- but the key is which partisan group are Independents closer to at any point in time.

...

In 2006 and 2008, the mood of Independents was a lot closer to the mood of Democrats than Republicans. And, ultimately, Independents gave Dems a significant advantage at the ballot box. This year, the mood of Independents is much closer to the mood of Republicans about the direction of the country.

In both '06 and '08, independent voters were more inclined to be pessimistic about the nation's direction than optimistic. In '06, Bolger's Public Opinion Strategies polling showed indie voters' views hewing closer to Dems than to GOPers; in '08, the gap was less pronounced but still far more advantageous to Dems than GOPers.

Take a look at some recent polls, and GOPers have reason to be pleased. In the most recent Research 2000 poll for the liberal DailyKos.com website, 64% of Dem voters believe the country is on the right track, compared with 12% of GOPers. In the middle sit indies at 34%, 22 points away from GOPers and 30 points away from Dems.

A recent Ipsos-McClatchy poll, conducted Feb. 26-28, showed just 16% of GOPers happy with the country's direction, 12 points below the 28% of independents who believe the same. But 52% of Dems -- 24 points above indies -- say the country's headed the right way.

Be sure to bookmark POS's blog, a good place to go to get insight on the data top GOPers are seeing on a daily basis.

Strategists on both sides say the die is already cast in advance of the fall campaign no matter what happens on health care legislation this week. Whether the bill passes or fails, both GOP and Dem strategists say, members have already taken votes that will mark them come Nov.

"I will still be talking about health care reform. I still think health care reform can and must be done. We just need to take a better approach to lowering costs and providing better access to quality care," said Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier (R), who is running against Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-CO). "We can have health care reform without 2000 page bills, more taxes and needless regulation. I'm confident we can get there."

"The fact that [Dems] have caused record deficits, the unemployment rate is 9-plus percent, they can't govern, and they are completely tone deaf to the needs/focus of the American people doesn't change because they can't find the votes to ram health care through with 59 votes in the Senate and an 80-seat majority in the House," one top NRCC official said via email.

One senior House Dem leadership aide posited that if the bill fails, Dems will have to pour lots of campaign money into ads explaining the failed legislation so voters understand why they spent so much time working on it, what was good about it and why GOPers are worse for effectively having killed it.

"That's a challenge, and I would expect that some Democrats would have to spend significant sums to explain their first vote," the aide said. "And they'd have to explain why they didn't get the job done, and that's a difficult place to be."

GOP candidates have insisted they will take their opponents to task whether or not Dems vote for the bill. In a conference call Monday, businessman Jim Renacci said his message will remain the same even if his rival, Rep. John Boccieri (D-OH) votes against health care a second time.

"He's voted 94% of the time with Nancy Pelosi, so it will be interesting to see where he ends up," Renacci said.

Democrats resisted, en masse, talking on the record for this story for fear of advancing any discussion of a possible failure. But, they said, Renacci's point is a lever they can use to woo their own members.

"That's what we're trying to tell these Democrats on the fence. Republicans are going to bash them either way because they're voting for Nancy Pelosi for speaker and they are part of the party that did this," said another Dem leadership aide. "I'm not sure if Democrats taking political advice from Republicans is a good idea, because Republicans don't have the Democrats' best interest in mind, and why would we want to take advice from a party that hasn't been able to win a House race in the last four years?"

But the messy process that has marred the debate is a concern for Dems. "Privately, we are very concerned about the incompetence argument," one top Senate Dem strategist said.

House Dem leaders will have new incentives to win over vulnerable members reconsidering their health care votes as a host of party allies prepare to launch a barrage of new ads supporting the reform effort.

The new ad spending, led by groups as diverse as SEIU, PhRMA, MoveOn.org and the Consumers Union, will counter millions the Chamber of Commerce and other GOP allies have spent over the last week -- an amount that had some Dems worrying their allies had abandoned the fight.

Beginning tomorrow, Dem allies are rejoining the battle. Americans For Stable Quality Care, a pro-reform group that pairs progressive organizations like Families USA with PhRMA, will launch a $12M ad blitz. SEIU, AFSCME, Health Care for America Now and MoveOn.org are also launching its own TV campaign, to the tune of $2.1M.

Americans United for Change is targeting African American communities with $485K in radio and TV ad buys. The National Women's Law Center, Doctors for America and other groups are also joining the fight this week. All told, Dem allies expect to spend about $15M on ads this week alone, approximately equal to the amount reform opponents have spent over the past 2 weeks.

Both sides have spent hundreds of millions to influence public opinion over the past year, but Dems worried their side was being outspent in the critical final week. Speaker Nancy Pelosi and WH senior advisor David Axelrod have been most instrumental in convincing Dem allies to step up their efforts on vulnerable incumbents' behalf.

"Collectively, people aren't surprised that the industry, when it comes to an issue that is near and dear to their hearts, spends a lot of resources to try and defeat it," said Tom McMahon, executive director at Americans United for Change.

During the course of what Dems hope is the final week of the health care push, the Chamber of Commerce has spent millions in ads targeting specific members. Ads are airing in 17 states targeting 27 Dems who voted for the bill and 13 who opposed it, and the Chamber has already spent $11M on their latest campaign, with more to come.

Dems need to be able to convince wavering members they won't be buried under an avalanche of anti-health care ads if they vote for final passage. Incumbents like Reps. Jason Altmire (D-PA), John Boccieri (D-OH) and Betsy Markey (D-CO), all of whom voted against the first version of the bill, need to be reassured they will have allies on their side if they switch positions.

The Chamber, meanwhile, is targeting all 3 of those incumbents. And until this weekend, Dems were nervous their allies were jeopardizing health care reform by failing to invest the kinds of resources needed to woo vulnerable members.

On the Dem side, labor and progressive groups have spent more than $100M on advertisements during the course of the health care fight. But during what Dems hope is the last week of the legislative push, anti-reform groups have vastly outspent pro-reform groups, according to Evan Tracy, president of the Campaign Media Analysis Group.

"Democrats are facing an avalanche of negative ads by pro-insurance industry groups without any cover from proponents of health insurance reform," said one senior House Dem aide.

Those worries were misplaced, according to several sources with knowledge of the impending ad blitz. "People are a little bit freaked out by the Chamber and how big it was, and that there wasn't an automatic response to it," one strategist said.

Dem allies said the new sense of urgency now that there is a final bill -- the House Budget Committee will mark up the reconciliation measure this afternoon -- once again opened spigots that had been closed.

"When it looked like things were going smoothly, I think people don't feel the urgency as much as people do when the cards are on the table and there are some tough votes to be taken," McMahon said. "Issue fights like this always have ebbs and flows, and that's why we've tried to be a constant voice, no matter what."

Rep. Mark Kirk (R) is using his first general election TV ad to tout his independent record in DC, highlighting votes he took that make some GOPers uncomfortable as he tacks to the middle for the general election.

Kirk's first ad of the general showcases his votes for tax cuts as well as for broadening stem cell research, along with his work on behalf of Lake Michigan.

Kirk has long held a competitive district just north of Chicago, withstanding tough Dem challenges and becoming a fundraising powerhouse in the process. He has been held up by DC GOPers as the best shot they have of winning back Pres. Obama's SEN seat because of his centrist views.

Some conservative GOPers aren't likely to be happy with the new ad, but they represent a small fraction of the party's electorate. Kirk had a well-funded challenger from the right, though atty Patrick Hughes won just 19% of the vote.

Kirk's first ad, "Independent":

Kirk will face Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) in Nov. Giannoulias was in DC last week, in part to meet with WH officials he will need on his side as he battles his well-funded and appealing opponent.

Update: A source with knowledge of the ad market in IL passes along data showing Kirk is spending about $170K on the ad buy. He has purchased an estimated 88 GRPs in the Chicago market, at a cost of $62,690, and he's running around 240 GRPs in Peoria-Bloomington and the St. Louis, MO, markets at a cost of $11,690 and $24,008, respectively.

Kirk has $19,670 on the air, good for 437 GRPs, in Champaign; $40K in the Quad Cities market will get him 444 points; and $11,400 in Rockford will purchase 326 points, according to the data. The ad is set to run for the next 2 weeks.

Meanwhile, the DSCC is up with a web ad hitting Kirk on contributions he received from big banks.

Sure, it's fun to fill out your brackets. And sometimes, it can even score political points.

KY LG Daniel Mongiardo (D) and his primary rival, AG Jack Conway (D), have been engaged in low-level friendly fire for the better part of a year as they race to replace Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY). The bitter primary has gone so far that it could threaten the party's chances to hold the seat, come Nov.

But basketball is religion in KY, and everyone can have some fun around tournament time.

In that spirit, Mongiardo has offered a "friendly" wager to Conway -- one that would drive one of Mongiardo's favorite narratives. Mongiardo loves reminding voters he graduated from UK's medical school, while Conway is an alum of hated UK rival Duke. Both schools are 1 seeds in this year's tournament.

"I am a proud Kentucky graduate, as I know Jack Conway is a proud Duke graduate. In the spirit of friendly competition, I offer Jack a friendly wager that Kentucky will advance further in the tournament than Duke," Mongiardo said in a statement Monday morning.

If UK goes farther than Duke in the tournament, Conway would have to take Mongiardo golfing at a Louisville country club. If Duke wins more games, Mongiardo would have to take Conway on a turkey hunt in Western KY.

Reinforcing Conway's out-of-state degree and his membership at a posh urban golf club while bolstering his own ties to the more rural part of the state? A smart move for Mongiardo's campaign. On the other hand, we doubt Conway -- a Louisville native, for anyone keeping score -- is going to bet on any team other than UK or Louisville this year (Fun times: Louisville, a 9 seed in the South region, could face Duke in the second round).

Update: Not to be left out of a good primary fight, Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) has a web ad accusing his opponent, ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R), of rooting against the home-state team as well. Paul went to Duke for medical school.

Good Monday morning. Beware the Ides of March, and don't forget to fill out your brackets. We're trying to stifle our outrage over Washington's 11 seed because we'd rather see them beat New Mexico in the 2nd round rather than face a 1 seed.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter in politics today:

HOUSE BUDGET COMMITTEE CHAIR JOHN SPRATT: Spratt's powerful committee will meet today at 3 p.m. to mark up legislation that will serve as the vehicle for reconciliation fixes in what Dems hope is the final step toward health care reform. The bill, released last night, is subject to a final push that WH press secretary Robert Gibbs said yesterday is likely to be completed by week's end.

The 2,309-page bill (watch out, that's a big pdf) will eliminate the Cornhusker Kickback, the Louisiana Purchase and other deals intended to entice lawmakers to vote with Dems. And now that the party actually has a bill to defend, leadership will be able to twist the arms necessary to win back momentum the party seemed to be losing last week. Dem leadership has a narrow window to get to the 216 votes they need for passage, but they remain publicly optimistic those votes will be there when necessary -- and necessary is this week.

Spratt is one of the incumbents who will be most impacted by the legislation's final drive. Facing a tough re-election campaign this fall against state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R), Spratt has been unapologetically in favor of passing a reform measure, and intimately involved in the process too. If GOPers are going to take back the House, they will need to argue that long-time members like Spratt have lost touch with their districts, and that the health care bill is proof. Spratt won't make it easy for the GOP, but he's in for a much tougher re-election contest than he's had for quite some time.

PRES. OBAMA: As the reform push kicks off, Obama and his admin are putting the full-court press on OH today. Obama will travel to the Cleveland area for a campaign rally-style event, and he's bringing Rep. Dennis Kucinich (D-OH) along with him. Kucinich is one of the liberals who voted against the bill because it didn't go far enough, and he's someone the WH needs in their corner as the 216 figure looms large.

Obama and the WH are using their own tactics to twist arms this week. They've signaled they will favor incumbents who voted for the health care legislation over those who voted against the bill when scheduling campaign stops this year, assuaging some Dem fears that any triangulation technique would cost Dems seats. The WH's willingness to engage sends a strong message to Dems -- they won't be alone and exposed on the campaign trail this year. The WH's prioritization of members who vote with them is another strong message -- the campaign trail is a two-way street.

The WH's willingness to get active is on display today, when VP Joe Biden hits both corners of the Buckeye State in full campaign mode. Biden is in Cincinnati this afternoon for a fundraising event with Rep. Steve Driehaus (D), a freshman in a competitive district who voted for the health care bill. Driehaus beat ex-Rep. Steve Chabot (R) because of turnout driven by the top of the ticket, but he'll need help to keep his seat.

Each of the GOP CA SEN and GOV candidates addressed the CA GOP convention this weekend, along with ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R), who introduced CA GOV candidate/ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R). Here are some highlights from the candidates' speeches:

SEN candidate/ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) directly attacked Sen. Barbara Boxer (D), speaking like a candidate who has already locked up the GOP nod, even as she lags ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R) in polling.

Fiorina: "As I said earlier, I believe strongly that the great sleeping giant of American democracy is awakening. Conservatives, independents, moderates, Republicans, Democrats, Tea Partiers, Libertarians - all of us now belong to one party: The 'Had Enough Party.' We have had enough, and we are at a critical point in history - in Ronald Reagan's words: 'a time for choosing.' You and I will choose to make a difference this year. Not separately but together."

Meanwhile, shortly before Fiorina spoke to attendees, her camp released a new web video attacking Boxer and her record in the Senate. The video doesn't quite rival "Demon Sheep," but it's close.

Campbell also directly criticized Boxer, attacking her support of health care and cap-and-trade legislation. He also touted his record of winning elections in Dem-heavy areas in explaining why he will make the best GOP nominee.

If GOPers are going to defeat Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY), it seems almost certain it will be without an A-list candidate. And the news late last week that DC GOPers are talking to NYC Mayor Michael Bloomberg's (I) long-time girlfriend Diana Taylor -- an ex-state banking superintendent -- only seems to confirm these suspicions.

But Taylor is not alone on the GOP's B- or C- list. As top-tier challengers, such as ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R), New York Daily News publisher Mort Zuckerman (R) and Rep. Peter King (R) -- and apparently ex-Gov. George Pataki (R) -- have each turned down bids, a crop of lesser-known challengers has risen up.

To review, there are at least 6 other GOPers in various stages of a race against Gillibrand. Ex-Port Authority Commis. Bruce Blakeman (R) has already confirmed his bid. Ex-Rep. Joe DioGuardi (R) is set to officially announce his candidacy 3/16. And ex-Giuliani aide/economist David Malpass (R) is supposedly in.

Meanwhile, ex-Bush foreign policy adviser Dan Senor (R), husband of CNN's Campbell Brown, is highly rumored to run, and Rockland Co. Exec. Scott Vanderhoef (R) and Orange Co. Exec. Ed Diana (R) are still considering the race.

The 69-year-old CPA DioGuardi, 69, is somewhere between a second and third tier candidate given that he's been out of Congress since losing to to Rep. Nita Lowey (D) in '88. He's likely more popular for being the father of American Idol judge Kara DioGuardi than his work on South African apartheid or authorship of the 1990 CFO Act.

In the absence of an A-lister, the GOP field may expand even more, since the filing deadline is still four months away.

MI's self-described "nerd" candidate for governor Rick Snyder (R) is presenting himself as the outsider, overachieving entrepreneur with experience creating jobs that can transform the Wolverine state's economy in order to create an era of "innovation." He says he can solve MI's budget deficit without raising taxes and projects himself as a fiscal conservative and social moderate.

To veteran observers, this may sound familiar to the successful template used by another multi-millionaire, venture capitalist that ran successful campaigns for VA GOV in '01 and VA SEN in '08: Sen. Mark Warner (D).

Fiscally, Snyder is against new taxes to close the MI budget gaps. In an 10/10/01 debate against ex-AG Mark Earley (R), Warner flatly declared that "as a businessman, I'll clean up the budget mess this year in Richmond, restore accountability, and no matter how many times my opponent may say otherwise tonight, I will not raise your taxes."

Warner and Snyder both found a singular tax to demonize. "I will finish the repeal of the car tax," said Warner at the debate, though he ultimately did not once he made it into office. Snyder said the MI Business Tax has "got to go," adding, "When it comes to taxes, it's like the people in Lansing rented the movie Dumb and Dumber."

Though Warner ultimately did raise taxes as governor, he claimed he had to clean up the "mess" created by ex-Gov. Jim Gilmore (R). This year, Snyder is chastising Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) with similiar sentiment. "Unfortunately, we've heard happy talk from the Governor for seven years and the only thing that has been 'blown away' are jobs, young people, tax dollars and the state's economy. We've been through years full of promises without results," wrote Snyder in response to Granholm's State of the State address last month."

"Results" is another theme that dominated Warner's campaigns. He ran hard in '08 on the "results-oriented" style of governing he said he brought to Richmond and the phrase "results-oriented" is plastered on Warner's Forward Together PAC page. Snyder this year is pushing hard on the same theme, saying at the intro of his his TV ad "Superman" that "nerds get results." Like Warner, Snyder is asking MI voters to "hire" him as its next CEO. If elected, Snyder will likely deal with a Democratically-controlled state House and a GOP-controlled state Senate; Warner faced a GOP-dominated state House and Senate for all four years of his term. Warner also served at a time when Sens. John Warner (R) and George Allen (R) represented VA in Congress. Snyder would have the opposite issue in partisan identity with Sens. Carl Levin (D) and Debbie Stabenow (D).

Socially, Snyder and Warner are cut from similar moderate threads despite being on opposite ends of the abortion issue with Snyder considering himself pro-life and Warner calling himself pro-choice. Spokesmen from Snyder's camp and Warner's Senate office confirmed that they both rights for same-sex couple to enter into contracts but neither support same-sex marriage. Snyder spokesperson Jake Suski confirmed that Snyder supports civil unions while Equality Virginia provided an e-mail stating Warner went on record in '04 as against civil unions. Both also support embryonic stem cell research and both call themselves supporters of the second amendment. Snyder and Warner also have three children each.

The two also have in common stories about pulling themselves up from their boot straps in order to succeed in the private sector. Warner talked about sleeping on his friends couches and driving a beat up old Buick before striking it big with Nextel. Snyder grew up in a 900 sq-ft house in Battle Creek, MI that didn't even have a dining room. Both grew up as scholastic overachievers with Snyder earning his MBA at age 23 and Warner graduating as valedictorian at George Washington University.

Warner and Snyder both entered their campaigns with a background in politics: Warner worked for CT Sens. Abe Ribicoff (D) and Chris Dodd (D), and Snyder served as a convention delegate for Gerald Ford. As for the future, Warner said in '01 that his "approach is about the 21st Century. It's restoring sound conservative fiscal management practices in Richmond. It's about growing the economy, particularly in these challenging times, to actually have a governor that's created jobs and met a budget."

Replace "Richmond" with "Lansing," and Snyder becomes the Wolverine Warner: "You start with a vision and I've got a vision to say we need a new era in the state, the era of innovation, and I put out a 10-point plan with details behind them," said Snyder last month.

Even though the focus at the CA GOP convention this weekend will be the '10 GOV and SEN races, attendees won't be able to help thinking about the WH'12 contest when they see ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) on stage tonight.

Romney will give a five minute introduction of ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) before she gives an approximately 15 minute speech to convention delegates gathered in Santa Clara, according to Romney spokesperson Eric Fehrnstrom. Romney, who is supporting Whitman in the GOV race, is attending the convention at the request of Whitman, Fehrnstrom added.

Even though the CA GOP didn't do the inviting, they're quite pleased to have the potential 'WH'12 candidate in their midst.

"Mitt Romney is a major leader in our party," CA GOP chair Ron Nehring told Hotline OnCall. "We typically have past presidential candidates, potential presidential candidates and national Republican lay leaders at our state party convention."

Whitman has a long history with Romney, and she has credited Romney with sparking her interest in politics. They worked together at management consultancy Bain & Co. in the '90s, and Whitman was a fundraiser for Romney's WH'08 campaign. The Whitman camp includes some former Romney pres. camp staffers, like finance dir. Spencer Zwick and political dir. Todd Cranney.

Nehring said that while Whitman will be the convention's "focus" tonight, Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R) will be in the limelight tomorrow when he addresses the convention.

CA SEN candidates ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R), ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R) and Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R) will also deliver addresses at the convention.

Romney is taking advantage of his time in CA, scheduling a book signing in Sacramento today. His book, "No Apology" was released last week.

In our ongoing quest to keep tabs on how key Dems will vote, we've broken Dems into 4 categories based on their votes on the original health care bill, passed in Nov., and on the Stupak amendment, a measure to toughen abortion language that passed with the vast majority of the GOP conference's support along with 64 Dem votes.

Dems believe they have a total of 15 to 20 targets, "no" votes the first time around who can be persuaded to switch their positions. Those in the first category, members who voted against the bill and against the Stupak amendment, may be their easiest targets. Those in the second category, who voted against the measure but for the amendment, will be harder to win over.

GOPers are not without their own targets. Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) claims he has up to a dozen votes among the second group, those who voted for health care but who are willing to vote against it if abortion language isn't strengthened. The third category include those members who voted for both the bill and the amendment, and the reservoir from which Stupak is likely to find his backers.

Finally, the fourth category will be harder for the GOP to win over. They include 17 junior Dems, some liberal, some centrist, who voted for the measure but against the Stupak amendment. The most effective argument to win over these members will be an appeal to their re-election chances.

But momentum has been completely on the GOP's side over the last few days, and now, even stalwart Dems like Reps. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) and Mike Capuano (D-MA) are expressing concern about the bill.

Dems have yet to convince a single member to switch their "no" vote to "yes," although the party is confident votes will start moving their way once the CBO releases its score of the legislative fix.

For an explanation of the other data points -- including the percentage of uninsured in each district and the percentage of seniors per district -- from National Journal's Ron Brownstein, check out yesterday's post here.

Dem Targets: No On Reform, No On Stupak

After the jump, our lists of longshot Dem targets, top GOP targets and longshot GOP targets.

A second poll in 2 weeks shows Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) leading both his Dem and GOP rivals by widening margins.

The Research 2000 poll, conducted for the liberal DailyKos website, surveyed 600 likely voters between Mar. 8-10 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. An oversample of 400 likely Dem primary voters had a margin of error of +/- 4.9%. Specter was tested against Rep. Joe Sestak (D) and ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R).

PRIMARY ELECTION MATCHUP
Specter    51% (+3 from last, 8/12)
Sestak     32  (-1)

GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUPs
Specter    47% (+2)       Toomey     42% (+1)
Toomey     41  (+1)       Sestak     39  (-3)

Specter holds a 5-point lead over Toomey among indie voters, while Toomey leads Sestak 40%-33% among middle of the road voters. Sestak would lead if he won over more Dems; 24% say they remain undecided in the matchup between Sestak and Toomey.

Sestak has just 2 months to make up any ground he can in his underdog bid against Specter. His key will be to quickly boost his name ID -- 42% of PA voters, including 38% of Dems, have yet to form an opinion about the 2-term member of Congress.

He's been the GOP nominee for all of a day, but already businessman Tim Burns (R) faces a delicate balancing act in the race to replace the late Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) -- one that could fatally compromise the GOP's chances of taking back a seat they might otherwise win.

Burns will face ex-Murtha aide Mark Critz (D) in the May 18 special election to fill the remainder of Murtha's term. But that same day, Burns will face a well-funded challenger from the right in the regularly-scheduled GOP primary.

That could force Burns into a dangerous dual game, at once appealing to moderate voters with talk of jobs and the economy while struggling not to turn them off if he's forced to appeal to a GOP base interested more in social issues. And for his part, '08 nominee William Russell (R) has little interest, or intention, of making Burns' path any easier.

Burns' choice, as some see it, could be between winning a special election while losing a primary, and appealing to the GOP base in order to win the primary while losing the special, a result that would leave him terminally weakened in advance of the Nov. elections.*

Hoping to avoid a backlash similar to that which divided the GOP in NY-23 last year, the PA GOP backed off initial plans to select a nominee through the state party, a plan Russell allies lambasted as tainted. Instead, delegates voted for Burns by a 2-1 margin in a conference procress -- a process Russell also slammed as illegitimate.

"The outcome was always a foregone conclusion. We knew they were going to ram this through and they did," one Russell advisor said. At the conclusion of the process, Russell said he would run in a primary.

The NRCC will back Burns, but the committee has not committed to spending money on his behalf for the special election. The NRCC has little money to spend, and party strategists see the big Dem voter registration edge as a disadvantage not easily overcome.

But Burns spokesperson Tad Rupp said GOPers have a strong chance to reclaim the district, and that his candidate will be able to avoid the dance between conservative GOPers and centrist independents.

"When you start looking at the values of voters and what they are taking into account, conservative Democrats are as upset with Washington as Republicans in the district," Rupp said. "If you look at the district, it's exactly the kind that [GOPers] can turn red."

GOP strategists expressed surprise at how difficult it was to drive up negatives against unknown candidates, and indeed, Reps. Scott Murphy (D-NY) and Bill Owens (D-NY) won their respective races against GOPers who had run before. Now, the GOP has their own businessman with the ability to raise money -- and to write himself a big check.

Now that Burns is the nominee, Rupp said, the campaign will begin conversations with the NRCC about how much the party can help out. Otherwise, Burns is willing to spend significantly on his own behalf, but "he's not going to be a self-funder," Rupp said.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

Meet the Press hosts WH sr. adviser David Axelrod, House Maj. Whip James Clyburn, Senate Maj. Whip Dick Durbin and Karl Rove. The roundtable features New York Times' David Brooks and New York Times' Tom Friedman.

Face the Nation hosts WH press sec. Robert Gibbs, Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN), Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) and America's Health Insurance Plans' pres. Karen Ignani.

This Week hosts Axelrod and Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC). The roundtable consists of ex-WH comm. dir. Anita Dunn, ex-RNC Chair/ex-WH counselor Ed Gillespie, Washington Post's George Will and ABC's Cokie Roberts.

Fox News Sunday hosts DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen, Cantor, Gibbs and Rove. The panel features Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol, NPR's Mara Liasson, ex-WH press sec. Dana Perino and Center for American Progress' John Podesta.

State of the Union hosts Axelrod and House Min. Leader John Boehner.

See other weekend shows after the jump.

Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA) has a longshot chance at pulling off a major upset, according to a new survey conducted for his campaign.

The poll, conducted by Anzalone Liszt Research (D), shows Melancon trailing Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) by a 48%-38% margin. That should be a daunting deficit for the Dem, but Vitter's rising unfav ratings suggest Melancon isn't out of the running yet.

Vitter's fav/unfav rating stands at 54%/38%, and a plurality say they do not believe Vitter shares their values. What's more, 84% of LA voters say they have problems with Vitter's links to a prostitution ring.

Dems have been hinting they will attack Vitter's personal issues during the campaign, releasing press statements with not-so-subtle code words designed to remind reporters of his connection to the case. And the fact that Melancon's campaign asked about the scandal in a poll shows the Dem is seriously considering using it as an issue in Nov.

The poll shows Vitter is much better known than Melancon, as 92% of LA voters have an opinion about the incumbent. Just 59% have feelings about Melancon, suggesting he has room to grow.

But the national climate is hard to ignore, even against a potentially vulnerable GOPer like Vitter. GOPers have found electoral success in the state, and Melancon's campaign has a long way to go to claw back within striking distance.

Sen. John Thune (R-SD) is venturing outside his state and workplace on Monday to campaign with a House GOP candidate in bellwether MO.

Thune is heading to St. Louis Monday -- not even a full week after Pres. Obama was there talking health care -- to campaign with Rep. Russ Carnahan's (D) challenger, atty Ed Martin.

Martin is the former CoS to ex-Gov. Matt Blunt, and he has closer ties to ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney than he does to Thune. Martin's spokesperson, Brenda Madden Kimberlin, is ex-Romney spokesperson Kevin Madden's sister, and his "Ask Ed Anything" events derived from Romney's campaign events, dubbed "Ask Mitt Anything."

Thune is going not to follow up on health care legislation, but to talk cap and trade.

Martin's camp hailed Thune as "instrumental" in halting the cap and trade bill. Carnahan voted for the measure, which passed the House last summer but which has been held up in the Senate.

Thune can afford to spend time outside his home state, even though he's up for re-election this year. Thune has drawn no opponents yet and the filing deadline in SD is Mar. 30.

If the GOP is going to retake the Senate, they need to beat Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). According to a new poll for the liberal DailyKos website, that possibility isn't entirely out of the question.

The poll, conducted by independent firm Research 2000, surveyed 600 likely voters between Mar. 8-10 for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Boxer was tested against ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R), ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) and Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R). The 3 GOPers were also tested among 400 GOP primary voters for a margin of error of +/- 5%.

PRIMARY ELECTION MATCHUP
Campbell     33
Fiorina      24
DeVore        7

GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUPS
Boxer        47 (no trend)    Boxer        49 (-3 from 8/12)
Campbell     43 (no trend)    Fiorina      40 (+9)
Boxer        49 (-4)
DeVore       39 (+10)

Boxer has decent favorable ratings, at 50% fav/45% unfav, but CA voters clearly like their incumbents rather than love them. Sen. Dianne Feinstein's (D) fav/unfav stands at a surprising 49%/44%. Campbell leads Boxer among independents by 2 points, while Boxer beats both Fiorina and DeVore among the subset.

Still, sitting in the high 40s isn't where Boxer wants to be right now. But she is one of the most prolific fundraisers in the Senate, holding $7.26M in the bank as of the start of the year and making GOP efforts to topple her a tough uphill slog.

After the jump, results from the state's open GOV race.