Caucus Time In Colorado
The CO primaries are 5 months away, but Dems and GOPers across the state will take the first step toward choosing their '10 GOV and SEN nominees tonight when they convene at their local precinct caucuses. And for Sen. Michael Bennet (D) and ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D), the results could play a large role in the shape of things to come.
Technically, the caucuses function more like a straw poll than an actual nominating event -- the results are not binding, nor do they determine which candidates' names will appear on the ballot in Aug.
But the results do serve as an early indicator of candidates' strength ahead of the real winnowing in May, when candidates must garner at least 30% of the delegate vote at their state party assemb. in order to make the primary ballot.
With Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) running unopposed for the GOV nod, the action on the Dem side will be in the SEN race. And for Romanoff, the question isn't whether he'll clear 30% tomorrow, but whether he can best Bennet, according to independent pollster Floyd Ciruli.
"The only thing Romanoff has is the ability to argue that he's the candidate of rank-and-file Democrats," Ciruli said. If Romanoff takes more than half of the caucus vote, Ciruli added, it will bolster his argument that he's the candidate of the grassroots. And if Romanoff only gets between 30%-50%, Ciruli projected that he'll likely stay in the race, but his supporters may begin to have second thoughts about the viability of his candidacy.
CO Dem strategist David Kenney, who is also an adviser to retiring Gov. Bill Ritter (D) -- who appointed Bennet in '09 -- called the caucuses "a home game" for Romanoff.
"He's supposed to do well here" because he's a "career politician," Kenney said. While he said he expected Romanoff to win, Kenney cautioned that "the caucus isn't the primary," noting that Interior Sec./ex-Sen. Ken Salazar (D) didn't win the state nominating convention in '04 but later prevailed when primary voters went to the polls.
Bennet has the benefit of a comfortable lead in most polls, as well as in fundraising and the support of establishment Dems, including Pres. Obama. But he's also not skimping on pouring resources into tomorrow's vote: Both Ciruli and Kenney noted that Bennet's camp has identified likely Dem caucusgoers and is targeting them with direct mail.
On the GOP side, ex-LG Jane Norton (R) is the frontrunner in the SEN race. Ciruli noted that tomorrow's caucus results will help determine whether Weld Co. DA Ken Buck (R) and ex-state Sen. Tom Wiens (R) join her on the primary ballot. The other declared candidates in the race include physician Robert Greenheck (R), Vincent Martinez (R), atty Steve Barton (R), businessman Cleve Tidwell (R), Gary Kennedy (R) and businessman Mark Van Wyk (R).
Meanwhile, in the GOV GOP primary, ex-Rep. Scott McInnis (R) is the frontrunner. He's joined by businessman Dan Maes (R), Littleton library board member/Korean translator Yoon Joo Mager (R) and Mark Vanderbilt (R).
CO GOP chair Dick Wadhams noted that some candidates may drop out of the race after a dismal caucus showing, but others remain, since they've got "nothing to lose."
"Tomorrow's vote is significant, but not determinative," Wadhams said.
Any candidate who doesn't pass the 30% threshold at the state party assembly in May can still get his or her name on the 8/10 primary ballot by collectingjavascript:void(0); petition signatures. Under state law, candidates must submit 1.5K signatures from registered party members in each of CO's seven House districts by the sec/state's 5/27 deadline.
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