Dems' Health Care DileMMMa
Hotline editor Amy Walter, a former aide to ex-Rep. Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky (D-PA), takes a look at the real choices Dems face when deciding their vote for or against health care legislation:
As each side works to tweak and spin public opinion about health care, House Democrats have to realize that it's not about numbers anymore. Instead, as one lobbyist told me in an off-the-cuff conversation the other day, wavering Democrats need to realize that it's "gut check" time. They vote for or against this bill despite the political implications, not because of them.Is it worse to look incompetent -- pass nothing and get nothing -- or to pass something that the majority of folks in their districts don't support? Forget about the national polls -- many of these incumbents are looking at polling numbers for their party, their president and the issues that are much, much worse than what we see at the national level.
The last time I witnessed something akin to this kind of pressure was in 1993 when my then-boss, Rep. Marjorie Margolies-Mezvinsky, D-Pa., flipped her "no" vote on the original House budget bill and went on to become the 218th vote for the Budget Reconciliation Bill. What everyone remembers about that vote was that she went on to lose re-election. What most don't remember was that voting against the bill -- as 41 Democrats did that year -- was no guarantee of success in the '94 midterms, either. Six of those incumbents, including Rep. Jill Long Thompson, D-Ind., David Mann, D-Ohio, and Richard Lehman, D-Calif., voted against both the House and reconciliation bills and lost their seats anyway. Many other no votes, like Reps. Marilyn Lloyd, D-Tenn., Sam Coppersmith, D-Ariz., and Dave McCurdy, D-Okla., retired in 1994. Their seats were captured by a Republican candidate.
Then there was Rep. Pat Williams, D-Mont., who accompanied "MMM" on the long walk down into the well to cast the 217th vote. He went on to win.
House Democrats face the same dilemma this year. They can vote for a bill that's unpopular in their district and lose their seat in November. Or they can vote against the bill and still end up losing their seat.
Or maybe they win either way.
Read the whole column here.