Friday's Starting Lineup

Good Friday morning. Buzzer-beaters, upsets and tight games all around -- the first day of the tournament lived up to our best expectations. And the UW Huskies are still alive, to boot!

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter in politics today:

PRES. OBAMA: Yesterday went well for Obama, even though he had to delay his trip to Indonesia and Australia for a few months. Instead, he got a surprisingly good CBO score for health care legislation expected to come up for a House vote this weekend, and his signature initiative is now inching toward passage through the House.

Obama will be in VA today for a rally in support of the bill, returning to familiar territory in suburban Fairfax Co. He will speak to supporters at George Mason Univ., but he really has 2 audiences to address: The first is the final few wavering Dems who could ensure the bill makes it through the House. The second is made up of voters who will decide Dems' fates this Nov. Fairfax is the kind of area in which Dems have seen substantial growth in recent years, but the party needs to sell the health care bill to those voters to keep them in the folds.

Members of Congress like Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA), who represents Fairfax, will have to answer for their votes. Connolly has been an ardent and unapologetic backer of the legislation, but other Dems are more nervous. VP Joe Biden told ABC News the WH is getting heat from vulnerable Dems, who now depend on the WH to orchestrate the sales pitch that will save their seats.

HOUSE MAJ. WHIP JIM CLYBURN: But the more immediate concern is passing the bill, and few bear more responsibility than Clyburn does. The Dems' top vote-counter has kept careful track of the party's wavering members, and he told Charlie Rose last night he believes the CBO score brings Dems to the 216 votes they need to pass the bill.

"I think so. I really am -- believe that the people who were very leery about what this would do to the country's debt and deficit are very pleased with this. It makes it easier, as well as on the progressive side," Clyburn said when asked if he had the votes.

Indeed, though 2 Dems who voted for the bill the first time around -- Reps. Mike Arcuri (D-NY) and Stephen Lynch (D-MA) -- said they will vote no this time, Dems began picking up votes late in the day. Reps. Bart Gordon (D-TN) and Betsy Markey (D-CO), 2 no votes, said they would support the measure, and Reps. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) and Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), who were concerned about immigration provisions, are now yes votes. Today, pro-life Rep. Marcy Kaptur (D-OH) says she is "leaning" toward voting for the bill, and Rep. John Boccieri (D-OH), a no voter the first time, has an announcement scheduled for this morning.

As members of Congress work through the weekend to pass the bill, all eyes will be on Clyburn and his floor operation. Dems aren't likely to win the vote by a wide margin, but Clyburn will be a big part of making sure they get at least 216. The House meets Sunday at 1 p.m., according to House Maj. Leader Steny Hoyer's office, with votes scheduled some time after 2 p.m.

FL HOUSE SPEAKER MARCO RUBIO: The conservative darling and long-shot candidate to replace Sen. George LeMieux (R-FL) is no longer a long-shot. Poll after poll has shown him with a big lead over FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R), the once-invincible golden boy of Sunshine State politics. The latest: A DailyKos survey showing Rubio with a 58%-30% margin.

And, given NRSC chair John Cornyn's comments last week when he seemingly lacked conviction in a renewed pledge to back Crist, it feels safe to say Rubio is the front-runner, and even DC GOPers have acknowledged it. Straw poll wins don't mean a lot, as underdog wins in NV, CO and elsewhere show. But Rubio's string of victories demonstrated a disconnect between Crist and the GOP base that have some in FL buzzing about whether Crist will even stick with the GOP (his camp firmly denies those rumors).

With the front-runner mantle comes great responsibility. Crist seemed to land a few punches during Credit Card-gate, when Rubio's use of a party card had him on the defensive. And when columnists are making comparisons between Rubio and Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY), the scandal's clouds clearly haven't passed. If Crist ever engages and takes down Rubio, now may be the time the ex-speaker is at his most vulnerable.

(Fun side note: The reason you never hear about straw polls pitting Dem candidates against each other is that there aren't any. Dem party rules prohibit party organizations from holding straw polls, unlike the GOP, which often uses the events as fundraisers for state and local parties.)