GOP Insiders See More Midterm Opportunities
Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell is still likely to head the minority party in the next Congress, but he could have a lot of reinforcements, according to this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll.
When asked how many Senate seats the Dems would gain or lose in the upcoming midterm elections, 98 Dem Insiders said on average that the loss would be 5 seats. GOP Insiders were even more bullish: the 97 respondents predicted the average loss would be 7 seats, which would bring the GOP total to 48, up from 41.
60% of the Dem Insiders surveyed said the party would lose at least 5 seats. While 51% of GOP Insiders said that the Dem losses would be at least 7 seats, only 4% thought that the party would gain at least 10 seats, giving them outright control of the upper chamber.
GOP Insiders are hopeful that their count will rise in part because of their recruiting prospects and a generally favorable political climate that may present opportunities even in blue states. For example, speculation that ex-WI Gov. Tommy Thompson (R) might take on Sen. Russell Feingold (D-WI) prompted some GOP Insiders to up their estimates of potential gains. Added one GOP Insider, referring to the race in CA: "When Barbara Boxer has to look over her shoulder, you know it's going to be a bad year for Democrats."
In a separate question, the two parties' Insiders had diametrically opposed views on whether the Dems would be helped or hurt politically if they use the reconciliation process to complete action on health reform. A whopping 80% of the Dem Insiders said their party would be helped, while 85% of the GOP Insiders said Dems would suffer.
Many Dem Insiders suggested that the public was much less concerned about the process by which reform becomes law than the law itself. Some GOP Insiders actually agreed, but they felt the Dems were looking at trouble because they're convinced that voters don't like the substance of the Dem legislation. While Dem Insiders feel that failure is the worst of all possible worlds because it would show the party can't govern, the comments of some reflected a tone of weariness with the issue, which many Dems once felt would be a signature achievement. As one Dem Insider put it, "They need most of all to get the issue behind them ASAP."
For all the Political Insiders Poll results and comments, click here.
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