Grayson On Offense As Paul Leads
KY Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) has launched a new assault on his chief primary rival, even as many GOP strategists in the Bluegrass State acknowledge ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) has a significant lead with just 10 weeks to go before the primary.
Recent polling has shown Paul, son of Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), ahead of Grayson by double digits. He has been present on the campaign trail, while Grayson has been less visible.
"I still think Trey Grayson can win, but certainly he's put himself in a very short window to come back and be viable," said one KY GOP strategist who backs Grayson but who is not working on the campaign.
Paul has begun an aggressive media campaign and has already reserved hundreds of thousands of dollars in media time for the final weeks of the primary. Grayson, for his part, only launched his first ad last month, investing much less than Paul did on his first ads.
Meanwhile, many GOPers worried about Grayson's ability to take a punch and to effectively counter attacks made against him. But those with nerves thought it would be the Dem nominee they worried about; few expected that weakness to manifest itself so evidently in the primary.
Grayson was slow to realize Paul's strength, sources in both camps agree. And the national political environment, which favors outsiders over insiders, is playing to the upstart Paul's advantage.
"[Paul's camp] did a number of smart things, and I think they got really lucky that Trey Grayson never really engaged. They used their time wisely, and I'm not sure that Trey Grayson did," said the strategist who will vote for Grayson. "They had a chance to define Rand Paul early, but they just didn't engage."
Grayson, sources said, assumed he was the front-runner all along, while Paul was too fringe to gain acceptance from the GOP electorate. Both assumptions turned out to be false, and now Paul's campaign plans to use his outsider credentials -- he has never sought elected office -- to draw contrasts with Grayson.
"The underlying theme of the race all through election day is that it's a career doctor versus a career politician. I don't think that changes," said a Paul advisor.
But Grayson isn't finished yet. The new ad, along with a companion website -- RandPaulStrangeIdeas.com -- seeks to capitalize on some of Paul's statements on Guantanamo Bay and national security. And Paul plans to respond to the charges, giving Grayson an opening to land some blows.
And it's what Paul's campaign will expect for the rest of the race: "Grayson knows his only path to victory is to gut Rand. I think it's a pretty narrow path," the Paul advisor said.
Dems believe they have a much better chance in Nov. against Paul than they do against Grayson, something most GOP strategists agree with. But GOP primary voters are more interested in voting for the more conservative candidate than they are for the contender who has the best chance to win in Nov.
That's not to say Paul has no chance in Nov.; recent polls show both GOP candidates running ahead of LG Daniel Mongiardo (D) and AG Jack Conway (D), the 2 leading Dem contenders, but few believe those polls are accurate reflections of the state's political realities.
The battle between Mongiardo and Conway has been equally brutal, with both contenders lobbing accusations of hypocrisy at the other and both touting their own leads in various polls, both public and private.
If the eventual nominee faces off with Paul, though, their party is unlikely to take the wait-and-see track Grayson has pursued. An early effort to define Paul early on thanks to his own comments could prove an effective way to find a silver lining on what is shaping up to be a cloudy midterm cycle for Dems.
Paul will win the GOP primary by double digits. Grayson is soft and really just uses gop talking points and really doesn't have a passionate issue.
By going negative, Grayson will hurt his future chances at statewide office.
Paul will easily beat either democrat in the fall. Every candidate in the race besides Paul favors big government. Paul is running against big government in the perfect year for such a race.
So far the Paul campaign has been prepared for Grayson's attacks, getting a counter-ad on air within a day or so after Grayson launches a negative ad. They must have response ads ready and waiting.
Paul is smart to let Grayson attack first, that way he can appear to be the aggrieved party who is merely responding to a "baseless charge" made by his opponent while Grayson suffers most from going negative.
Grayson is much bigger physically than Paul and that normally equates to greater voter confidence in a candidate's abilities. However, by letting Paul build up such a lead over him Grayson now comes across as the "big guy beating up on the little guy," a cause for voter scorn rather than confidence.
Finally, there are the family-values intangibles that Paul has been able to capitalize on by showing off his wholesome-looking family whereas the pouting, moody Grayson has nothing to show, and that raises the question of whether he could be blackmailed in a high-profile office, hardly a way to win voter confidence.
"That's not to say Paul has no chance in Nov.; recent polls show both GOP candidates running ahead of LG Daniel Mongiardo (D) and AG Jack Conway (D), the 2 leading Dem contenders, but few believe those polls are accurate reflections of the state's political realities."
They kinda sound like Bill Johnson denying he was at 5% in the polls before dropping out.
Seriously, what exactly is wrong with the polls that show Rand Paul beating both democrats? These were all scientific independant polls.
If the democrats really think that Paul will be easier for them to beat and that Paul is too fringe to win in KY, they will be making the exact same mistake that Greyson made. Personally I think it's a good thing for Paul that the democrats are underestimating him even though he's been beating them in the polls for months.