KY Establishment Favs Take A Hit
Establishment GOPers are worried about Sec/State Trey Grayson's (R) campaign, and a new poll shows they have reason to be. Meanwhile, the survey for DailyKos shows the establishment Dem candidate faces his own long odds in the May 18 primary.
The Research 2000 poll, conducted Mar. 15-17, surveyed 600 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Subsamples of 400 likely Dem and GOP primary voters had margins of error of +/- 5% each. Greyson and ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) were tested against AG Jack Conway (D) and LG Daniel Mongiardo. Trends are from the last poll, conducted Aug. 31 to Sept. 2.
Primary Election Matchups
Mongiardo 47 (+10) Paul 40 (+15)
Conway 31 (+1) Grayson 28 (-12) General Election Matchups
Grayson 43 (-2) Grayson 44 (-2)
Mongiardo 38 (-3) Conway 36 (-4)
Paul 46 (+4) Paul 45 (+4)
Mongiardo 37 (+0) Conway 39 (+2)
Paul's ratings are strong, at 55% fav, 25% unfav, but Dems -- and GOPers backing Grayson -- remain convinced they have enough opposition research to bring him down. Still, Paul has signaled he will fight back at shots fired his way.
As much as Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell backs Grayson, establishment Dems are backing Conway. The AG has been endorsed by Louisville's mayor, both House Dems who represent the state and major legislative figures; Mongiardo, on the other hand, has only support from Gov. Steve Beshear (D), and the 2 have had a rocky relationship at that.
But Mongiardo, who hails from eastern KY, has a base in a rural area that plays a role in Dem primaries, and Conway has had trouble breaking out of his Louisville base.
Grayson and Conway aren't done yet, but with just 2 months to go before the primary, the general election race KY voters will get could be exactly the opposite of what both party establishments originally wanted.





Ha, ha! Couldn't happen to a nicer bunch of Washington power elite.
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Relationship Breaking Up