NY-29 Race Hits Restart Button
Rep. Eric Massa's (D-NY) surprise decision to retire at the end of a single term has set both parties scrambling to come up with candidates for the seat, even though the GOP already has a top recruit running.
Sources describe a GOP field that has essentially reset after Massa's decision, leading to the possibility of a contested primary after the NRCC signaled its preference for Corning Mayor Tom Reed (R). Reed's fundraising -- he raised just $87K in the 4th quarter and spent $81K, reporting just $122K in the bank -- had begun to raise eyebrows.
"People were beginning to take notice of that," said ex-Rep. Tom Reynolds (R-NY). Reed's poor performance has attracted new interest in the contest. Monroe Co. Exec. Maggie Brooks (R), state Assemb. Min. Leader Brian Kolb and state Sen. Catharine Young (R) are all taking a second look at the race, according to those who know the district.
"Everybody that I know treats this, because it's an open seat now, as a new era, a start from the beginning," said Reynolds, the former NRCC chair who held the neighboring district before retiring last cycle.
Reynolds said a host of wealthy businessmen who could partially or wholly self-fund would explore the contest. Others said ex-Rep. Randy Kuhl (R), who lost the seat to Massa in '08, is considering his own comeback bid, something that, because of Kuhl's tainted personal history, could be a bad thing for the party.
"Randy was a flawed candidate," said ex-Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA), also a former NRCC chair.
But, Davis said, the state of the landscape in the traditionally GOP southern tier makes Massa's seat ripe for the taking. "This seat should go back to Republicans in this environment," Davis said. "The last 2 cycles have been abberations up there. Things are starting to snap back to normal now."
Though it has gotten the party in trouble in other races, Davis suggested the NRCC anoint a candidate early, in order to avoid heading into the Sept. 14 primary with a competitive field aimed more at each other than at the eventual Dem nominee. If Brooks makes a race, Davis said, ex-Rep. Amo Houghton (R), still a popular figure in the area, is likely to weigh in on her behalf.
Reed also has problems with Corning Glass, the largest employer in the district. Several sources said the company, which backed Reed's mayoral run, are not happy that he's seeking higher office when he could be sticking to city business.
Dems have yet to settle on their own candidate, but Massa asked Hornell Mayor Shawn Hogan (D) to run for the seat. Both parties say Dems have less of a bench in the district than the GOP does. Dem sources also pointed to Canandaigua Mayor Ellen Polimeni (D), Assemb. Barbara Lifton (D) and Assemb. Susan John (D) as possible contenders.
Meanwhile, Massa's personal troubles and rumors of an investigation by the House ethics committee has the potential to make his retirement far more damaging than simply putting his seat at risk. GOPers, including those who lived through it, are comparing Massa's predicament to that of ex-Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL), whose resignation in '06 helped tip several races toward Dems.
"The economic environment makes it bad enough for Democrats," Davis said. "All you need right now for the combustability is a bad scandal."