Regardless Of Outcome, Health Care Die Is Cast

Strategists on both sides say the die is already cast in advance of the fall campaign no matter what happens on health care legislation this week. Whether the bill passes or fails, both GOP and Dem strategists say, members have already taken votes that will mark them come Nov.

"I will still be talking about health care reform. I still think health care reform can and must be done. We just need to take a better approach to lowering costs and providing better access to quality care," said Aurora City Councilman Ryan Frazier (R), who is running against Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D-CO). "We can have health care reform without 2000 page bills, more taxes and needless regulation. I'm confident we can get there."

"The fact that [Dems] have caused record deficits, the unemployment rate is 9-plus percent, they can't govern, and they are completely tone deaf to the needs/focus of the American people doesn't change because they can't find the votes to ram health care through with 59 votes in the Senate and an 80-seat majority in the House," one top NRCC official said via email.

One senior House Dem leadership aide posited that if the bill fails, Dems will have to pour lots of campaign money into ads explaining the failed legislation so voters understand why they spent so much time working on it, what was good about it and why GOPers are worse for effectively having killed it.

"That's a challenge, and I would expect that some Democrats would have to spend significant sums to explain their first vote," the aide said. "And they'd have to explain why they didn't get the job done, and that's a difficult place to be."

GOP candidates have insisted they will take their opponents to task whether or not Dems vote for the bill. In a conference call Monday, businessman Jim Renacci said his message will remain the same even if his rival, Rep. John Boccieri (D-OH) votes against health care a second time.

"He's voted 94% of the time with Nancy Pelosi, so it will be interesting to see where he ends up," Renacci said.

Democrats resisted, en masse, talking on the record for this story for fear of advancing any discussion of a possible failure. But, they said, Renacci's point is a lever they can use to woo their own members.

"That's what we're trying to tell these Democrats on the fence. Republicans are going to bash them either way because they're voting for Nancy Pelosi for speaker and they are part of the party that did this," said another Dem leadership aide. "I'm not sure if Democrats taking political advice from Republicans is a good idea, because Republicans don't have the Democrats' best interest in mind, and why would we want to take advice from a party that hasn't been able to win a House race in the last four years?"

But the messy process that has marred the debate is a concern for Dems. "Privately, we are very concerned about the incompetence argument," one top Senate Dem strategist said.

"We haven't really talked about what will happen if we fail. There's been some discussion, but not as much as you'd think. No member wants to talk about it in a public forum, because that would be the slightest acknowledgment that we could fail," said a top Dem aide. "A football team doesn't prepare for a game thinking they will fail; they go into a game giving it everything they've got, and after they lose, then they deal with it."

Meanwhile, GOP strategist Carl Forti is among those who believe health care won't be the most effective hit on Dems this year -- simply one arrow in a very full quiver.

"Ultimately I think the votes on TARP and [the] stimulus are going to be more effective hits," Forti said. But any Dem who votes for health care, especially if the bill passes with a bare minimum of votes, will be in trouble: "If they vote again and it's 216 - then everyone who voted 'yes' is the deciding vote."

Dems know they've already made their political wager. "When you bet the farm, you better have a straight royal flush," the aide said.