Spinning Reconciliation

As House Speaker Nancy Pelosi searches for votes and the WH hunts for compromises on health care reform, party strategists on both sides remain convinced that a legislative overhaul will pass. Quietly, both parties are preparing talking points to define the final product on their own terms.

And though each party will cast their rivals as off on the wrong track, they many on both sides agree on one point: For all the inside-the-Beltway outrage about the reconciliation process, the GOP won't take the issue straight to voters, because it simply won't work as a political argument.

"We can't focus on the process," one GOP strategist emailed. "Must focus on indicting the bill."

Making the argument that GOPers should be elected because Dems use the arcane procedure, both sides agree, is akin to arguing that one party is obstructing the other's work in DC -- a tactic often attempted and successful only when the target of the attack is actually seen as a party leader, like ex-Sen. Tom Daschle (D-SD) in '04.

But others say the majority's reliance on legislative negotiating, and unprecedented scrutiny the resulting deals have received, means process should be a part of the discussion. "Process isn't as powerful as underlying attack on substance of the bill but does matter, because it's on the backdrop of Gatorade, the Cornhusker Kickback and the Louisiana Purchase," said Rob Jesmer, executive director of the NRSC.

Every GOP strategist agrees, though, that the argument once the bill passes will touch on largely the same points it does now. The GOP strategist said his party will focus on Dems who "want to ram through a bill that won't lower costs, but raises taxes, increases the deficit, cuts Medicare and will kill jobs."

"All it's going to do is cement independents for us," Jesmer added. "If the American people don't like the bill now, they're not going to like the bill when they pass it." Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell has made clear that anyone who voted for any part of the bill, whether for cloture, in committee or elsewhere, will be tagged with the consequences of the final product.

Dem strategists have long believed their nightmare will only end when the bill passes -- and that the means don't matter. Once it does, the party plans to push GOPers to take a stand on a Club for Growth-backed plan to repeal anything that passes. The Club asks lawmakers and candidates to promise to roll back any legislation that makes it through the legislative sausage-making process.

"Unequivocally and without any fear of retribution, we're going to run" on repealing the bill, Jesmer said.

If and when a bill passes, Dems' reasoning goes, GOPers will be forced to make a new argument. So far, they have argued the bill amounts to a government takeover of health care. But if the legislation closes the Medicare donut hole and gives coverage to those who don't have it yet -- no matter the costs -- Dems will be able to make the case that the GOP wants to take away coverage.

"The question for will be if Richard Burr is going to look voters in the eye and pledge to repeal health care reform which will have afforded coverage to 1.7 million North Carolinians, shrunk the donut hole for 250,000 North Carolina seniors, offer 112,000 small businesses tax credits ended appalling insurance practices, and lowered the deficit," said DSCC spokesperson Eric Schultz. "If he wants to make that argument, I am more than happy to help him make pitch calls."

It's the same case GOPers would have made had Dems tried to repeal Medicare Part D, Pres. George W. Bush's biggest effort to reform health care. There were problems with the program, which was greeted with skepticism by members of both parties when it went through Congress, but it hasn't been -- and won't be -- repealed. Taking benefits away from those who have them, after all, could be harmful politics.