Sports Viewers Largely Republican
If you're a GOP strategist looking for key primary votes, spend your valuable advertising money on PGA Tour events. If you're a Dem trying to win over your base, focus on advertising during NBA games.
So says a new study among hundreds of thousands of Americans examining the correlation between viewers' favorite sports and their voting habits. And, the survey shows, most dedicated sports watchers are much more likely to vote with the GOP than they are to vote with Dems.
Researchers at National Media Inc., a GOP firm, analyzed survey results from a total of 218K interviews between Aug. '08 and Sept. '09. The polling was conducted by Scarborough USA, a joint project of Nielsen and Arbitron, the 2 top ratings agencies in the country. The data helps TV and radio stations and the country's newspapers set ad rates by evaluating viewership habits.
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GOPers are most likely to watch the PGA Tour, college football and NASCAR, according to the study. But if GOP ad buyers want to reach more frequent voters, they should focus on the PGA; golf fans told researchers they were much more likely to vote than NASCAR fans say they are. Meanwhile, Dems hold the largest advantages among basketball fans, both those who watch the NBA and the WNBA. And fans of World Wrestling Entertainment are also much more likely to favor Dems -- if they vote. Wrestling fans are less likely to cast ballots than any other sports fans.
Overall, GOPers hold advantages among die-hard fans of most sports, albeit by slimmer margins than golf fans. Those who watch Major League Baseball and the NFL are only slightly more conservative than the average voter, while those who watch college basketball are about 5% more likely to vote with the GOP.
Among the major sports, college football fans say they are most likely to vote, followed closely by MLB aficianados. NFL fans rate with NASCAR fans as less likely voters. Fans of extreme sports, the WWE, monster trucks and soccer -- all of whom tend to be younger -- are the least likely to vote, according to the survey.
The data is fun to peruse, but it has practical implications as well. Ad buyers should focus on sports programming, according to the analysis. That's because sports fans are most likely to view events live instead of on a DVR machine, meaning they don't skip the ads.
Dems tend to watch more TV than GOPers, and they dominate most kinds of programming. That means GOP ad buyers have fewer choices, and sports offer the best opportunity to reach their voters.
Then again, not every sport has a devoted following. Fans of minor league baseball are high-propensity swing voters, but there aren't all that many of them. Bull-riding fans are GOPers, but the market is tiny. Dems tend to be bigger fans of men's and women's tennis, but, again, the appetite is limited.
After the jump, the raw data. And check back later today with Hotline OnCall, when we'll tease out more data from National Media's excellent analysis -- including what the makeup of the Final Four could mean for this year's elections.
Note: The partisan indicies show the likelihood of the average viewer favoring one party over another, with 100 as the mean. Similarly, the voter turnout index shows how likely a fan is to vote at all.
So, for example, fans of the PGA tour are 35% more likely than the average American to call themselves a GOPer. They are 12% less likely than average to call themselves Dems. And they are 35% more likely to be high-turnout voters than average, according to the survey.
We've also included the percentage of high-turnout voters who say they are very interested in the sport, a good way to measure just how much of an advantage one party or the other has among a certain sport's fans.
Sorted by GOP propensity:
GOP Dem R-D Voter Turnout % Very Sport/League Index Index Index Index Interested PGA Tour 135 88 +47 135 9% College football 136 91 +45 125 23 NASCAR 125 82 +43 108 10 Pro bull riding 115 78 +37 109 3 NHL 120 92 +28 118 5 LPGA Tour 117 93 +24 132 2 NHRA/Drag racing 106 82 +24 97 3 High sch. sports 118 104 +14 130 9 Olympics 117 103 +14 123 28 Motocross 95 81 +14 78 -- Col. baskeltball 118 105 +13 127 14 NFL 111 103 +8 111 29 MLB 110 105 +5 121 17 Minor league base. 104 105 -1 127 2 Extreme sports 86 94 -8 75 -- Grand-Am racing 83 94 -11 98 -- Monster trucks 79 91 -12 78 -- Men's tennis 93 117 -24 119 4 Pro soccer (MLS) 75 116 -41 85 2 Women's tennis 77 131 -54 116 3 WWE (Wrestling) 55 114 -59 66 2 NBA 75 136 -61 102 9 WNBA 57 153 -96 111 2
Sorted by percentage of "very interested" voters:
GOP Dem R-D Voter Turnout % Very
Sport/League Index Index Index Index Interested
NFL 111 103 +8 111 29
Olympics 117 103 +14 123 28
College football 136 91 +45 125 23
MLB 110 105 +5 121 17
Col. baskeltball 118 105 +13 127 14
NASCAR 125 82 +43 108 10
PGA Tour 135 88 +47 135 9
High sch. sports 118 104 +14 130 9
NBA 75 136 -61 102 9
NHL 120 92 +28 118 5
Men's tennis 93 117 -24 119 4
Pro bull riding 115 78 +37 109 3
NHRA/Drag racing 106 82 +24 97 3
Women's tennis 77 131 -54 116 3
Minor league base. 104 105 -1 127 2
LPGA Tour 117 93 +24 132 2
Pro soccer (MLS) 75 116 -41 85 2
WNBA 57 153 -96 111 2
WWE (Wrestling) 55 114 -59 66 2
Motocross 95 81 +14 78 --
Extreme sports 86 94 -8 75 --
Grand-Am racing 83 94 -11 98 --
Monster trucks 79 91 -12 78 --
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