Sports Viewers Largely Republican
ShareIf you're a GOP strategist looking for key primary votes, spend your valuable advertising money on PGA Tour events. If you're a Dem trying to win over your base, focus on advertising during NBA games.
So says a new study among hundreds of thousands of Americans examining the correlation between viewers' favorite sports and their voting habits. And, the survey shows, most dedicated sports watchers are much more likely to vote with the GOP than they are to vote with Dems.
Researchers at National Media Inc., a GOP firm, analyzed survey results from a total of 218K interviews between Aug. '08 and Sept. '09. The polling was conducted by Scarborough USA, a joint project of Nielsen and Arbitron, the 2 top ratings agencies in the country. The data helps TV and radio stations and the country's newspapers set ad rates by evaluating viewership habits.
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GOPers are most likely to watch the PGA Tour, college football and NASCAR, according to the study. But if GOP ad buyers want to reach more frequent voters, they should focus on the PGA; golf fans told researchers they were much more likely to vote than NASCAR fans say they are. Meanwhile, Dems hold the largest advantages among basketball fans, both those who watch the NBA and the WNBA. And fans of World Wrestling Entertainment are also much more likely to favor Dems -- if they vote. Wrestling fans are less likely to cast ballots than any other sports fans.
Overall, GOPers hold advantages among die-hard fans of most sports, albeit by slimmer margins than golf fans. Those who watch Major League Baseball and the NFL are only slightly more conservative than the average voter, while those who watch college basketball are about 5% more likely to vote with the GOP.
Among the major sports, college football fans say they are most likely to vote, followed closely by MLB aficianados. NFL fans rate with NASCAR fans as less likely voters. Fans of extreme sports, the WWE, monster trucks and soccer -- all of whom tend to be younger -- are the least likely to vote, according to the survey.
The data is fun to peruse, but it has practical implications as well. Ad buyers should focus on sports programming, according to the analysis. That's because sports fans are most likely to view events live instead of on a DVR machine, meaning they don't skip the ads.
Dems tend to watch more TV than GOPers, and they dominate most kinds of programming. That means GOP ad buyers have fewer choices, and sports offer the best opportunity to reach their voters.
Then again, not every sport has a devoted following. Fans of minor league baseball are high-propensity swing voters, but there aren't all that many of them. Bull-riding fans are GOPers, but the market is tiny. Dems tend to be bigger fans of men's and women's tennis, but, again, the appetite is limited.
After the jump, the raw data. And check back later today with Hotline OnCall, when we'll tease out more data from National Media's excellent analysis -- including what the makeup of the Final Four could mean for this year's elections.
Note: The partisan indicies show the likelihood of the average viewer favoring one party over another, with 100 as the mean. Similarly, the voter turnout index shows how likely a fan is to vote at all.
So, for example, fans of the PGA tour are 35% more likely than the average American to call themselves a GOPer. They are 12% less likely than average to call themselves Dems. And they are 35% more likely to be high-turnout voters than average, according to the survey.
We've also included the percentage of high-turnout voters who say they are very interested in the sport, a good way to measure just how much of an advantage one party or the other has among a certain sport's fans.
Sorted by GOP propensity:
GOP Dem R-D Voter Turnout % Very Sport/League Index Index Index Index Interested PGA Tour 135 88 +47 135 9% College football 136 91 +45 125 23 NASCAR 125 82 +43 108 10 Pro bull riding 115 78 +37 109 3 NHL 120 92 +28 118 5 LPGA Tour 117 93 +24 132 2 NHRA/Drag racing 106 82 +24 97 3 High sch. sports 118 104 +14 130 9 Olympics 117 103 +14 123 28 Motocross 95 81 +14 78 -- Col. baskeltball 118 105 +13 127 14 NFL 111 103 +8 111 29 MLB 110 105 +5 121 17 Minor league base. 104 105 -1 127 2 Extreme sports 86 94 -8 75 -- Grand-Am racing 83 94 -11 98 -- Monster trucks 79 91 -12 78 -- Men's tennis 93 117 -24 119 4 Pro soccer (MLS) 75 116 -41 85 2 Women's tennis 77 131 -54 116 3 WWE (Wrestling) 55 114 -59 66 2 NBA 75 136 -61 102 9 WNBA 57 153 -96 111 2
Sorted by percentage of "very interested" voters:
GOP Dem R-D Voter Turnout % Very
Sport/League Index Index Index Index Interested
NFL 111 103 +8 111 29
Olympics 117 103 +14 123 28
College football 136 91 +45 125 23
MLB 110 105 +5 121 17
Col. baskeltball 118 105 +13 127 14
NASCAR 125 82 +43 108 10
PGA Tour 135 88 +47 135 9
High sch. sports 118 104 +14 130 9
NBA 75 136 -61 102 9
NHL 120 92 +28 118 5
Men's tennis 93 117 -24 119 4
Pro bull riding 115 78 +37 109 3
NHRA/Drag racing 106 82 +24 97 3
Women's tennis 77 131 -54 116 3
Minor league base. 104 105 -1 127 2
LPGA Tour 117 93 +24 132 2
Pro soccer (MLS) 75 116 -41 85 2
WNBA 57 153 -96 111 2
WWE (Wrestling) 55 114 -59 66 2
Motocross 95 81 +14 78 --
Extreme sports 86 94 -8 75 --
Grand-Am racing 83 94 -11 98 --
Monster trucks 79 91 -12 78 --
Any chance we could get a breakdown by gender?
Fascinating stuff.
Some of these aren't surprises, like NASCAR and bull riding (regional) and golf (income), but can some explain how the NHL is more Republican?
The NHL and the Sun Belt are like oil and water. Hockey is mostly a coastal and Northeasern sport. Weird...
This also reminds me of the breakdown on cars (GOPers love Jags; Dems love Volvos).
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This could be because GOP can't stomach network TV and has
little besides Netflix and golf for viewing. I know some who even
view golf muted to avoid the inane comments of Nanz et al. They seem to have only one potential question for tournament winners,
"How does it feel to win . . ?" BORING!
Sports viewers largely Republican?
White male voters are largely Republican.
This is one big "Duh".
This is no surprise. Republicans favor competition and capitalism. Democrats on the other hand, favor more liberal agendas such as limiting competition, and evening the playing field by giving away money like welfare and other social programs due to fail over time like social security and nationalized healthcare.
Very intriguing info on this article. Is this part of a series? I sense there is so much more data than what is summarized on this text
NHL fans demographics will tell you why:
Higher income than other sports fans
More tech savvy
Higher education level
Majority are white
Any info on combat sports (boxing/MMA/Jui-Jitsu)???
I'd expect boxing to trend Democratic because it's very popular among minorities, Hispanics in particular. As for MMA, I don't know where it would be on the Democratic-Republican scale but chances are its fans would have low turnout levels, as most of them are quite young.
You omitted 'World Rally Car' but that hasn't been
on TV for a few years.
To dmx, do you have any idea how pro sports are run in this country? Ever heard of a salary cap? Sports are competitive and fun to watch because they are regulated to ensure a level playing field.
RE: MMA, I suspect it is included under `Extreme Sports.` A very young and non-voting demographic, as you suggest.
Doubt that education level can be lumped in here -- folks with graduate and doctoral degrees are strongly Democratic.
Race is possibly a greater factor in these differences, i.e. African-American fans much more prevalent at NBA and WNBA games.
I doubt seriously whether one's views about regulation directly correlate into support of professional sports that have salary schemes which coincide with those regulatory views.
Salary caps or not, sports are about as meritocratic as it gets. They're purely about results: every contest has a winner and loser. Believing that it's okay to have differing outcomes, as opposed to engineering things so that everything winds up the same, is very much a conservative notion.
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NBA, MLS, WWE, ATP, and (WNBA WTA).
Democrat voters watch sports with mainly MEN (and women)
IN SHORTS!!
What does that tell you about the mindset of libs?
It's ridiculous to assume liberals don't believe in free market competition. We believe in free market competition with a level playing field for everyone. I'm always making sure the playing field is fair. Conservatives believe in free market playing field with no rules or regulations. In other words you're level of thinking is on the same level as a neanderthal.
Boxing is followed mostly by Dems.
Disagree with above NHL analysis. It's simpler:
White males: conservative, GOP
Disagree about education level. Look at any polling exit or non-exit, and the higher the ed level the more likely to vote Democratic.
The only demographic more likely to vote republican are white males and there are a lot of them.
Looks like younger voters are turning democratic, which is true given recent election returns and well women (who watch women's sports more than men) are voting democratic and have been ever since Jimmy Carter.
Am I the only one shocked by WWE? Something must be messed up in the methodology of the study, because the atmosphere at "wrasslin" events is incredibly red state. There is no way that WWE supporters are that skewed towards Deomocrats. No way.
"Look at any polling exit or non-exit, and the higher the ed level the more likely to vote Democratic."
this is simply not true - the two groups that vote most Democratic are those who did not complete high school and those with doctorates
high school grads and BS/BA earners vote more Republican than either of those groups
I absolutely love this show, I hope the series keeps on going despite what most people say. I think any series can pull through if they focus on plot and character development.
JJ, do you even know what free-market competition is? "It's ridiculous to assume liberals don't believe in free market competition. We believe in free market competition with a level playing field for everyone." That's like saying the Lakers and the Cavaliers are too good, so they have to give Lebron and Kobe to the Nets and the T'wolves, so that everyone can "compete" on a "level playing field."
Regarding the NHL analysis:
For what it's worth, it struck me as odd considering that ice hockey is the national sport of Canada, a country often touted by conservatives as a crazy socialist utopia!
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Hey I was never asked my opinion on this!
Don't take polls so seriously, large numbers of people are not counted.
As for WWE, it's based out of NYC/Madison Square Garden originally, and has a larger Canadian/European[Generally more laid-back and more accepting than Americans] audience then some of our other sports, so it's not totally a red state thing.
And yeah about the level playing field thing..the NFL has a salary cap and restrictions on teams that make it far in the playoffs... and it is the most popular of all our sports.(Go Dolphins!)
Democrats seem to favor competition without it getting out of control, as in avoiding the big company beating down the small business[I'm an independent thanks, screw parties, but that is not "socialist"]. Unless, of course, some people would like to go back to the Middle Ages? Where the rich got richer and the little guys had to serve them due to the caste system. Because that worked out great for them...
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Thanks for posting the raw data. I found a couple insights surprising in the data...
I wonder what separates Monster Truck fans and NASCAR fans? I would have hypothesized that they would have similar audiences, but Monster Truck fans are much more liberal
I was surprised that men's tennis skewed on the liberal side.
http://www.pacificnorthwestcoastbias.com/where-sports-and-politics-intersect/
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