Thursday's Starting Lineup
Good Thursday morning. Thought Reagan-mania was over? Just wait until you see him on the $50 bill. Take that, Grant!
Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make headlines today:
REP. ERIC MASSA: Wait, that was yesterday's headline, right? Well, if Dems aren't lucky, maybe not. Though he strenuously denied it in a conference call yesterday, allegations about Massa's behavior continue to swirl, and when a politician doesn't come clean early, he sets the journalistic hounds on the case. This story isn't over yet, and it can only get worse.
It's not like Dems didn't have a heads up. House Maj. Leader Steny Hoyer said yesterday he knew of allegations against Massa and made sure the charges made their way to the House ethics committee. And while Massa is no Mark Foley, a disturbing pattern is emerging for Dems: They are making their political problems worse by making unforced errors.
Whether it's Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY) leaving his post at the Ways and Means Committee because of ethics problems, members of Congress like John Tanner (D-TN) and Bart Gordon (D-TN) or Sens. Evan Bayh (D-IN) and Byron Dorgan (D-ND) stepping down and vacating what will prove to be vulnerable seats in the fall, these are mistakes Dems didn't have to make. Some -- like the retirements -- will hurt more than Massa, but GOPers have the chance to capitalize on every flub.
PRES. OBAMA: The die is cast. The gauntlet is thrown. And now the WH has signaled it is entirely on board with budget reconciliation as the tool by which to pass health care legislation. Surrounded by medical providers in a WH ceremony yesterday, Obama called for a final up-or-down vote on health care legislation, and Dems say the process will play out before Easter recess.
Just by embracing the tactic, Dems finally succeeded in pushing away the GOP once and for all, even as they embraced some of the minority party's ideas. Now, both sides will fill their talking points with issues that don't matter much to voters: Few undecided voters will vote against Dems because they used the reconciliation process, and few will punish the GOP for failing to live up to the bipartisan spirit.
What will matter is the underlying bill itself, and how voters see it once it has become law. GOPers are confident that a bill that starts out as unpopular as this one will not get more popular once it's passed, and Dems recognize they need to bolster the bill's image if they are going to be able to sell it to voters. Pres. Obama will put on his salesman hat when he travels to Philadelphia and St. Louis next week to take his pitch straight to voters. What to watch for: Whether MO SEN candidate Robin Carnahan (D) and Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) join him on stage.
REP. BART STUPAK: Obama's problem in passing the bill is not GOPers, who won't vote for the measure anyway, or the Senate, where he can lose several vulnerable or antsy Dems and still get it done. The problem is the House, where Stupak and other pro-life Dems say they will not vote for the Senate version of the bill because of its abortion provisions. Stupak said yesterday he has 12 votes who will flip from yes to no, giving him the power to kill the legislation.
Pro-life Dems are just one faction of the party that isn't on board. Freshmen and sophomore Dems are being presented with the hard choice of taking a second tough vote on health care as their re-election bid looms, and some have said they may vote against the bill the second time (Then again, doesn't that just open them to the Kerry-esque charge that they voted for it before they voted against it?). Speaker Nancy Pelosi will have to work with the 39 Dems who voted no the first time to get the votes she needs for passage.
Check out the math: Because of Neil Abercrombie's (D-HI) and Nathan Deal's (R-GA) decisions to resign to focus on GOV bids, and because of the passing of the late Rep. John Murtha, Speaker Pelosi needs 216 votes, not 218, to get a majority. She starts with 220, and though some are skeptical of Stupak's numbers, if he's right, Pelosi's number drops to 208. Expect to see a number of House Dems who voted no the first time shepherded to the WH or flown about on Air Force One before the Easter recess as Dems put on the full-court press.