Thursday's Starting Lineup
Good Thursday morning. Have your brackets in? Make your final picks, as the first tipoffs happen in just a few hours.
Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:
DOUGLAS ELMENDORF: The CBO director has yet to release a final score for a reconciliation package, likely forcing Dems to hold a final vote on health care reform as late as Sunday. Dem leaders had initially hoped to hold the vote on Saturday, but the delay in getting cost estimates has likely nixed that possibility.
Elmendorf's numbers, which could be released as early as this morning, will give Dems the final cudgel they can use to entice wavering members. Reps. Dennis Kucinich's (D-OH) and Dale Kildee's (D-MI) announcements yesterday that they would back the Senate bill and the reconciliation procedure were important momentum-builders for Dems, and once final language is released, the party needs to keep that ball rolling.
GOPers have long cited increased taxes contained in the bill as they hammer away at Dems, and a CBO score will give the majority a good counter-argument. In fact, what may be the most effective way for Dems to convince the hold-outs to vote for the bill would be to build a strong communications plan for selling the bill after it passes. So far, the GOP has won the messaging war, and Dems know it.
REP. JERRY COSTELLO: The IL Dem, along with perhaps a dozen others, remains concerned with the bill's abortion provisions, and despite serious arm-twisting and cajolling, he and his fellows are still "no" votes. Even as Rep. Jim Oberstar (D-MN), one of the most pro-life Dems in the House, says he will vote for the bill, others remain unconvinced.
Speaker Nancy Pelosi is in a political bind: If she can win over members like Costello, Reps. Collin Peterson (D-MN) and Rick Boucher (D-VA), long-time incumbents will be the ones defending their votes this fall. Those incumbents have roots in their districts, relationships with their constituents and they could survive a political wave that would wash less grounded members out (Then again, tell that to Tom Foley, the former Speaker of the House who lost his seat in the '94 landslide).
But if Pelosi can't convince those members to vote with her side, she will have to rely on freshmen to give her the necessary votes. Reps. John Adler (D-NJ), Suzanne Kosmas (D-FL), Betsy Markey (D-CO) and Scott Murphy (D-NY) are all "no" voters the first time around who remain on the fence. If they have to vote in favor of the bill over the likes of Costello, Peterson and Boucher, the NRCC could have 4 races move quickly up their target list.
REP. LOUISE SLAUGHTER: The Rules Committee chairwoman, usually anonymous, is going to be famous after this weekend, at least if GOPers have anything to do with it. RNC polling shows the so-called "Slaughter rule" that would allow Dems to deem the Senate bill passed after voting on reconciliation is a powerful tool they can use against the majority.
Whether or not Pelosi has to use the controversial tactic, the process discussion has been what has really hurt Dems. The old saying is that the 2 things no one wants to see made are laws and sausage. Now, voters have seen the sausage-making process, and they don't like it.
It's hard to believe that voters will enter a polling station in Nov. and think to themselves that Rep. X helped pursue a deem and pass strategy -- that's not how a voter's mind works. But the GOP is forcing Dems to pursue a process that does not sit well with voters, and they will make the argument that the majority has not governed effectively despite their large margins in both chambers. Dems are privately worried about the incompetence argument, one that could resonate with that voter as they stare at the ballot deciding between a Dem and a GOPer.