Tim Burns' Awkward Position
He's been the GOP nominee for all of a day, but already businessman Tim Burns (R) faces a delicate balancing act in the race to replace the late Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) -- one that could fatally compromise the GOP's chances of taking back a seat they might otherwise win.
Burns will face ex-Murtha aide Mark Critz (D) in the May 18 special election to fill the remainder of Murtha's term. But that same day, Burns will face a well-funded challenger from the right in the regularly-scheduled GOP primary.
That could force Burns into a dangerous dual game, at once appealing to moderate voters with talk of jobs and the economy while struggling not to turn them off if he's forced to appeal to a GOP base interested more in social issues. And for his part, '08 nominee William Russell (R) has little interest, or intention, of making Burns' path any easier.
Burns' choice, as some see it, could be between winning a special election while losing a primary, and appealing to the GOP base in order to win the primary while losing the special, a result that would leave him terminally weakened in advance of the Nov. elections.*
Hoping to avoid a backlash similar to that which divided the GOP in NY-23 last year, the PA GOP backed off initial plans to select a nominee through the state party, a plan Russell allies lambasted as tainted. Instead, delegates voted for Burns by a 2-1 margin in a conference procress -- a process Russell also slammed as illegitimate.
"The outcome was always a foregone conclusion. We knew they were going to ram this through and they did," one Russell advisor said. At the conclusion of the process, Russell said he would run in a primary.
The NRCC will back Burns, but the committee has not committed to spending money on his behalf for the special election. The NRCC has little money to spend, and party strategists see the big Dem voter registration edge as a disadvantage not easily overcome.
But Burns spokesperson Tad Rupp said GOPers have a strong chance to reclaim the district, and that his candidate will be able to avoid the dance between conservative GOPers and centrist independents.
"When you start looking at the values of voters and what they are taking into account, conservative Democrats are as upset with Washington as Republicans in the district," Rupp said. "If you look at the district, it's exactly the kind that [GOPers] can turn red."
GOP strategists expressed surprise at how difficult it was to drive up negatives against unknown candidates, and indeed, Reps. Scott Murphy (D-NY) and Bill Owens (D-NY) won their respective races against GOPers who had run before. Now, the GOP has their own businessman with the ability to raise money -- and to write himself a big check.
Now that Burns is the nominee, Rupp said, the campaign will begin conversations with the NRCC about how much the party can help out. Otherwise, Burns is willing to spend significantly on his own behalf, but "he's not going to be a self-funder," Rupp said.
In one important respect, the GOP has departed from its earlier special election gaffes. In both NY-20 and NY-23, the party anointed elected officials to run for open seats, while Dems picked businessmen with little name ID and good fundraising skills.
Of 3 competitive special elections likely to occur before the midterms, GOPers have expressed the least confidence in their ability to win back Murtha's seat. The combination of an already-uneven voter registration tally, 2 competitive Dem primaries expected to drive turnout and Critz's relations with key players in the district will make Burns' race a tough slog.
What may be tougher is the balancing act between appeals to independent voters and appeals to conservatives who may not let Burns on the ballot in Nov.
* -- A footnote: Winning a special election the same day one loses a primary isn't unheard of. Ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI) won a special election to replace Cecil Heftel (D) in '86, the same day he lost the general election nomination to Mufi Hannemann (D). Hannemann went on to lose the general election to Rep. Pat Saiki (R) that Nov.
As a former Bill Russell supporter, I think it is time for Bill to bow out gracefully. No matter what we conservatives think of state GOP boss Gleason, we can and MUST get behind Tim Burns now and not split the ticket between two conservatives. Be smart, don't give the so-called 'Murtha' seat to the dems. It is the PEOPLE's seat not the Murtha seat.
Bill should keep on fighting and maybe when Burns loses the primary, Gleason will stop putting his greasy little hands in elections that were meant for the PEOPLE of the 12th district not him.
I have the biggest respect for Bill Russell and everything that he has done. However, Bill Russell only ran for the PA12 seat to beat John Murtha. Now that he has passed, we need someone that is truely invested in making this district great.
If you want to watch videos of Burns, click my name.
The fix was in for Tim Burns. Russell is up by 30 points in a Zogby poll. Why should he give up. If there was a fair selection process Burns probably wouldn't have gotten a second for his nomination. The last thing we need is another rich guy who want to play congressman. How do we know Burns is a conservative? Because he says so. We've heard that before. Boots on the Ground. Go Russell
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The whole process really stinks. Burns is a multi-millionaire who probably cannot connect with most people in the district - more importantly, people cannot connect with him.
Intellectually he is not a giant among us. The process was bad when in news reports it indicates that he is a "Johnstown businessman." not true - he lives on the fringe of the district in Eighty Four, PA.
Interesting to claim Burns can't relate to voters, when he grew up, was educated in, and has lived his whole life in the 12th district, whereas Russell has not. One person cites a 30 point spread as evidence of...what? We saw how quickly 30 points disintegrates in the MA Miracle race, didn't we? And while Russell and his supporters love to run around crying foul and spreading conspiracy stories that are laughable and patently untrue, Burns campaigns on the issues and doesn't engage in mudslinging or character assassination. The choice couldn't be any clearer: Tim Burns is the man with real vision, viability and class. Russell and his supporters are sore losers who discredit themselves with all their wild stories. And while we're at it, how about all those FEC violations investigations in 2008, Russell? How smart is it for you to hire Peg Luksik as your campaign manager when she's running a race herself? This kind of questionable judgment is yet another factor that makes Burns the right choice.
Additional laughs: Burns is not responsible for what newspapers say about where he lives. He's a Johnstown native, unlike Russell, and yet you somehow try to ascribe what a NEWSPAPER says to Burns? Your purile thinking is cracking me up. Time for Russell to quit whining and show that he wants the best for the district, by bowing out of this race like Hafer did on the Dem side. His refusal to do so shows he's only in this for the money. Perpetual candidates make an awfully good living off of other people's contributions. At least we know Burns isn't in this for the money. Don't think Russell can say the same.
Bill Russell,on behalf of what is good for PA-12 and the United States of America, please ask yourself why you, and your personal ambitions are more important than defeating the Democratic agenda. "I pledge Allegiance to the flag
of the United States.....one nation under God, indivisible" Bill please don't be dividing and divisive, please throw your support to Tim Burns. Thanks.
I'm reading up on this whole thing at moment. Need to read up on it big style!
When it is all said and done, remember what Bill Choby said about confusion at the ballot box. Voters are not as smart as you might think they are.
Tim Burns has some major explaining about why he has two children and is not married, why he didn't vote in 2000,2002 and 2004, why did he sellout the 400 employees that worked for him and what did he do in the past 7 years since he sold his business. He has no experience with government and has never run before. I predict that Burns will could lose both the primary and the special election and then disappear from politics forever.
Me and my husband enjoyed reading your blog post. Keep up the good work.
"Tim Burns has some major explaining about why he has two children and is not married"
--his wife left him
"why did he sellout the 400 employees that worked for him"
--how many people has Russell employed?
"He has no experience with government and has never run before"
--good
"The process was bad when in news reports it indicates that he is a "Johnstown businessman." not true - he lives on the fringe of the district in Eighty Four, PA."
--Where is Russell from? What is his zip code, year around?
Thank you for discussing such an informative article with all of us. I’ve bookmarked your blog will come back for a re-read again. Keep up the very good work.
Many thanks for discussing such an insightful article with all of us. I’ve bookmarked your blog will come back for a re-read again. Keep up the good work.
If Tim Burns is the Johnstown guy who grew up in the 12th District (and Russell did not) than how come Burns couldn't tell a radio host during an interview, what or where the Ghost Town Trail is? Nearly everyone in Johnstown knows what that is, where that is and they might have even visited the 30 mile park trail. But Burns was clueless. Goes to show he's really not one of us and he won't be able to connect with us!
Just wanted to say I love the blog. Thanks for the article.
Very informative post. Thanks for taking the time to share your view with us.
Hmmmm. Seems that Mr. Burns may have something in common with Tiger Woods. Wives of millionaires don't divorce for the money unless there was something going on. Mr. Burns needs to explain this now before his opponent does. Otherwise he is going to lose both the primary and the special election on May 18th.
Russell needs to step aside. He had his turn and failed. His lead of 30 points from Feb has all but evaporated--2 points now. CQ Politics has this contest a toss-up in a district where Democratics have a pretty significant edge. The question now is do you want the $3.6 million dollar man who has wasted it away on direct mail fund raisers who are more interested in making money for themselves, OR a guy who was raised in Johnstown, built a business here and entered politics not for a career but to make a difference. Ghost town trail--guess what? I am also a Johnstown resident and had no clue what you were talking about! Pretty trivial reference with all of the major problems our country is facing.