Updating The Health Care Whip Count
Dems are aiming to pass health care legislation, once and for all, by Easter recess. But for all their optimistic talk, one thing remains clear: They don't have the votes just yet. Then again, they don't have a bill yet, either.
The first step of what promises to be an arduous process will come when Dem leaders unveil the package of proposed measures to fix the legislation and make it more palatable to some House lawmakers. Once the Senate demonstrates it is able to pass the bill via reconciliation, the House will vote on the Senate legislation.
In our ongoing quest to keep tabs on how key Dems will vote, we've broken Dems into 4 categories based on their votes on the original health care bill, passed in Nov., and on the Stupak amendment, a measure to toughen abortion language that passed with overwhelming GOP support and 64 Dem votes.
Dems believe they have a total of 15 to 20 targets, "no" votes the first time around who can be persuaded to switch their positions. Those in the first category, members who voted against the bill and against the Stupak amendment, may be their easiest targets. Those in the second category, who voted against the measure but for the amendment, will be harder to win over.
GOPers are not without their own targets. Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) claims he has up to a dozen votes among the second group, those who voted for health care but who are willing to vote against it if abortion language isn't strengthened. The third category include those members who voted for both the bill and the amendment, and the reservoir from which Stupak is likely to find his backers.
Finally, the fourth category will be harder for the GOP to win over. They include 17 junior Dems, some liberal, some centrist, who voted for the measure but against the Stupak amendment. The most effective argument to win over these members will be an appeal to their re-election chances.
Then again, the one member who voted for the bill and now says he will vote against it -- Rep. Mike Arcuri (D-NY) -- falls into this category, suggesting the GOP's target list is far wider than we lay out here.
Below the jump, our latest whip count. Click here for our first vote count, and for more background on how Speaker Nancy Pelosi wins the 216 votes she needs to pass the bill.
Dem Targets: No On Reform, No On Stupak (15) Member District Comments John Adler* NJ03 Worried about cost controls Brian Baird WA03 Retiring/Undecided~ Rick Boucher VA09 Refused to comment~
Allen Boyd FL02 Chet Edwards TX17 S. Herseth Sandlin SDAL Larry Kissell* NC08 No~
Suzanne Kosmas* FL24 Frank Kratovil* MD01 Spox: Would vote no^ Dennis Kucinich OH10 MSNBC appearance: No Betsy Markey* CO04 Mike McMahon* NY13 Walt Minnick* ID01 No~
Scott Murphy* NY20 Undecided~
Glenn Nye* VA02
* - denotes freshman
^ - Kratovil source: "The Plum Line." Kucinich source: MSNBC's "Ed Show," 3/8.
~ - Hotline reporting.
Dem Long Shots: No On Reform, Yes On Stupak (21) Member District Comments Jason Altmire PA04 Worried about Senate votes John Barrow GA12 John Boccieri* OH16 Undecided~ Dan Boren OK02 No~ Bobby Bright* AL02 Ben Chandler KY06 Travis Childers MS01 Artur Davis AL07 Running for AL GOV, firm no^ Lincoln Davis TN04 Bart Gordon TN06 Retiring/Undecided~ Tim Holden PA17 Jim Marshall GA08 Jim Matheson UT02 Charlie Melancon LA03 Running for SEN Collin Peterson MN07 No~ Mike Ross AR04 No~
Heath Shuler NC11 Ike Skelton MO04 No^ John Tanner TN08 Retiring Gene Taylor MS04 Harry Teague* NM02
* - denotes freshman
^ - Skelton source: The Hill.
~ - Hotline reporting.
GOP Targets: Yes On Reform, Yes On Stupak (40) Member District Comments Joe Baca CA43 Marion Berry AR01 Retiring/Abortion concerns Sanford Bishop GA02 Dennis Cardoza CA18 Chris Carney PA10 Jim Cooper TN05 Jim Costa CA20 Jerry Costello IL12 Henry Cuellar TX28 Kathy Dahlkemper* PA03 Joe Donnelly IN02 Mike Doyle PA14 Steve Driehaus* OH01 Brad Ellsworth IN08 Running for SEN Bob Etheridge NC02 Baron Hill IN09 Paul Kanjorski PA11 Marcy Kaptur OH09 Dale Kildee MI05 Jim Langevin RI02 Dan Lipinski IL03 Stephen Lynch MA09 Mike McIntyre NC07 Mike Michaud ME02 Alan Mollohan WV01 Richard Neal MA02 Jim Oberstar MN08 David Obey WI07 Tom Perriello* VA05 Earl Pomeroy SDAL Nick Rahall WV03 Silvestre Reyes TX16 Ciro Rodriguez TX23 Tim Ryan OH17 John Salazar CO03 Vic Snyder AR02 Retiring Zack Space OH18 John Spratt SC05 Bart Stupak MI01 Abortion concerns Charlie Wilson OH06
* - denotes freshman
GOP Long Shots: Junior Dems (17) Member District Comments Mike Arcuri NY24 Will switch to no^ Gerry Connolly VA11 Alan Grayson FL08 Debbie Halvorson IL11 Martin Heinrich NM01 Jim Himes CT04 Mary Jo Kilroy OH15 Ann Kirkpatrick AZ01 Dan Maffei NY25 Worried about Senate votes Jerry McNerney CA11 Will vote no in present form^ Gary Peters MI09 Chellie Pingree ME01 Jared Polis CO02 Mark Schauer MI07 Kurt Schrader OR05 Dina Titus NV03 Paul Tonko NY21
^ - Arcuri source: WKTV. McNerney source: Morgan Hill Times.
Jane Ferrell
10890 A1A
Vero Beach, Fl 32963
US Congress
Jane Ferrell
10890 A1A Vero Beach Fl 32963 March 3, 2010
Dear Congressmen and Senators;
Health Insurance: Senior Citizens and the majority of Americans do not want a Government Controlled health insurance system. There are some good private health care proposals and reforms out there! Tort reforms, crossing state lines, and large groups are more like the American way. We do not want total government control of our bodies. Seniors: Some proposed changes equate to huge Medicare reductions, hence, poor or no service. Please revise the health insurance numbers to reflect reality. Please leave our Medicare service as is, defend us from terrorist Jhadists, and save us from higher taxes. Additionally, Medicare needs some help and reforms, but we do not believe gutting Medicare $500 Billion dollars in 10 years is wise. This produces Un-American class warfare and reduces the quality of life for all seniors.
Our economy, and job loss is critical. Health care should not be our prime focus now! We have record unemployment. Small business, seniors, and many Americans are afraid of a total government controlled health care plan. It will change our future. America is on the ropes and we have record unemployment. According to the Kaiser Foundation (Wall Street Journal October 27, 2009), the Massachusetts government plan costs $13,788 for a family. Many experts estimate a $7,000 to $12,000 per person cost. There are approximately 50 million persons without insurance. This equates to 3.5 to 6 trillion dollars in 10 years as the order of magnitude of the impact. Someone invented 800 Billion in costs by manipulating numbers and subtracting $500 million from Medicare! This is not reality! Can we afford government Health Insurance now?
Please vote against the present socialist style health proposal.
Respectfully,
J Ferrell
"Senior Citizens and the majority of Americans do not want a Government Controlled health insurance system"
Um, Ms. Ferrell, senior citizens ALREADY HAVE GOVT CONTROLLED HEALTH INSURANCE SYSTEM.
IT'S CALLED MEDICARE!
HELLOOOOO!!!
If Congress and the President, don't think enough of there health care plan to included there families. That should tell the rest of America it not a plan we want. There ways to improve health care through tort reform,allowing insurance to trade across state lines, and preventive exams to catch a health challenge before it get critical. I do not want the burden of this bill put on my children and grandchildren, it is not FAIR!
haha, Eddie is so funny! I love him.
haha, Eddie is so crazy! I love him.