Updating The Health Care Whip Count

March 11, 2010 3:37 PM | Permalink | Comments (4) |

In our ongoing quest to keep tabs on how key Dems will vote, we've broken Dems into 4 categories based on their votes on the original health care bill, passed in Nov., and on the Stupak amendment, a measure to toughen abortion language that passed with the vast majority of the GOP conference's support along with 64 Dem votes.

And new today, we've added some data points that may indicate just how these members are thinking about their votes. Check out what percentage of each member's district is uninsured, and which members have the highest numbers of seniors. The higher the number of uninsured, the more palatable switching one's vote might be. But the higher the number of seniors, the more pressure a member might get to vote against, given the bill's changes to Medicare.

As National Journal's Ron Brownstein writes:

Demographic trends could compound the political challenges Democrats face in their struggle to assemble a majority for health care reform in the House of Representatives.

As the following tables show, about two-thirds of the roughly 100 Democratic House Members who are not considered firm supporters of the legislation represent districts where senior citizens represent a larger share of the population than they do nationally (12.6 per cent); in polls many seniors have expressed concern that the reform package will hurt Medicare.

On the other hand, only about 40 of the target Democrats represent districts where the share of residents without health insurance exceeds the national average of 15 per cent.

...

[O]f the initial 39 no votes, 25 represent districts where seniors exceed their national share of the population. These Members include some of the leadership's top targets in the final scramble for votes, including Pennsylvania's Jason Altmire and John Adler of New Jersey.

Dems believe they have a total of 15 to 20 targets, "no" votes the first time around who can be persuaded to switch their positions. Those in the first category, members who voted against the bill and against the Stupak amendment, may be their easiest targets. Those in the second category, who voted against the measure but for the amendment, will be harder to win over.

GOPers are not without their own targets. Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) claims he has up to a dozen votes among the second group, those who voted for health care but who are willing to vote against it if abortion language isn't strengthened. The third category include those members who voted for both the bill and the amendment, and the reservoir from which Stupak is likely to find his backers.

Finally, the fourth category will be harder for the GOP to win over. They include 17 junior Dems, some liberal, some centrist, who voted for the measure but against the Stupak amendment. The most effective argument to win over these members will be an appeal to their re-election chances.

Dem Targets: No On Reform, No On Stupak

After the jump, our lists of longshot Dem targets, top GOP targets and longshot GOP targets.

Dem Longshots: No On Reform, Yes On Stupak

GOP Targets: Yes On Reform, Yes On Stupak

GOP Longshots: Yes On Reform, No On Stupak