Updating The Health Care Whip Count
In our ongoing quest to keep tabs on how key Dems will vote, we've broken Dems into 4 categories based on their votes on the original health care bill, passed in Nov., and on the Stupak amendment, a measure to toughen abortion language that passed with the vast majority of the GOP conference's support along with 64 Dem votes.
Dems believe they have a total of 15 to 20 targets, "no" votes the first time around who can be persuaded to switch their positions. Those in the first category, members who voted against the bill and against the Stupak amendment, may be their easiest targets. Those in the second category, who voted against the measure but for the amendment, will be harder to win over.
GOPers are not without their own targets. Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) claims he has up to a dozen votes among the second group, those who voted for health care but who are willing to vote against it if abortion language isn't strengthened. The third category include those members who voted for both the bill and the amendment, and the reservoir from which Stupak is likely to find his backers.
Finally, the fourth category will be harder for the GOP to win over. They include 17 junior Dems, some liberal, some centrist, who voted for the measure but against the Stupak amendment. The most effective argument to win over these members will be an appeal to their re-election chances.
But momentum has been completely on the GOP's side over the last few days, and now, even stalwart Dems like Reps. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) and Mike Capuano (D-MA) are expressing concern about the bill.
Dems have yet to convince a single member to switch their "no" vote to "yes," although the party is confident votes will start moving their way once the CBO releases its score of the legislative fix.
For an explanation of the other data points -- including the percentage of uninsured in each district and the percentage of seniors per district -- from National Journal's Ron Brownstein, check out yesterday's post here.
Dem Targets: No On Reform, No On Stupak
After the jump, our lists of longshot Dem targets, top GOP targets and longshot GOP targets.
Dem Longshots: No On Reform, Yes On Stupak
GOP Targets: Yes On Reform, Yes On Stupak
GOP Longshots: Yes On Reform, No On Stupak
Vote no on Obama Care or I will do what ever I can to support your constituents who are against this bad bill to defeat you in your next election.
I will do everything legally in my power to end your career if yo do not vote NO on the horrible America killing Obama nanny care bill. Have some spine and self respect and care about your country!
Sincerely,
Robert Boyle
Vote NO that is all I can say, NO!
Vote NO on this bill and KEEP LISTENING TO WHAT THE PEOPLE ARE TELLING YOU!
A NO vote for Obamacare is a Yes vote for Liberty, Freedom of choice and Capitalism. We do not need the kind of "Fundamental Change in America" that Obama and his Progressives are forcing on Americans. Socialism and total Government control is UNAMERICAN. VOTE NO on Obamacare.
Please Vote NO on this stinking Health Care bill. I am a small business owner who can't afford to hire, and would never do so under this anti-business government. All you people have done for the last 14 months is to f*** around with tax and social programs, such as Cap & Trade and Socialized Medicine. More Taxes. Yeah, that ought to Spring us out of a Recession! There is so much uncertainly in the business community over what you people are going to do next to take our money. What's next. Carbon offsets? A Capital Gains Tax increase? You people are nuts.
Please do not send the United States into the welfare state oblivion that is cursing Greece with this massive health care travesty.
please vote NO on the healthcare I am a vet I go to the va thanks Bruce Rearick
I am praying for, calling and urging all Democratic senators to vote 'NO' on the upcoming healthcare bill. It is too costly, too opaque, and it is not the will of the people. Everyone, contact your local Congressional representatives and let your voices be heard. We live in a wonderful nation despite its problems, and our free-system needs to remain as such, while encouraging everyone to sacrifice to help the entire nation--that is the spirit of George Washington, our Founding Father and we all need to return to our wonderful roots that brought this country into being. dirk
please do not send this health care through it is unconstitutional for us to be forced to have health insurance we are also getting tired of paying for abortions of babies.
Shorter Republican commenters:
PLEASE MAKE ME PAY *MORE* FOR HEALTH INSURANCE!
I WANT TO PAY THROUGH THE NOSE!
PLEASE RAISE MY PREMIUMS SO HIGH I CAN'T AFFORD THEM AND WILL HAVE TO CHOOSE BETWEEN SELLING MY HOUSE AND COVERING MY FAMILY.
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Why are so many of us supporting this bill? I can answer for myself: I paid for health insurance or it was paid by my employer for thirty years but I lost my great insurance after only six months of being too sick to work. I have friends who have had trouble getting their illnesses covered. I know doctors who spend much of their time arguing with insurance company employees over how a condition is to be medically treated. I have friends who have small businesses or who work as independent contractors, who have given up on purchasing insurance; it's way beyond their modest means. The current system is NOT working for so many of us, and we see how easily millions more could lose their coverage or find that it's not worth what they thought it was if they become ill or injured. So we are fighting for this bill. We also know that the current system has led to our nation's having the highest health care bill in the world. The high expenditures on health care stemming from the current arrangement are taking disposable income away from every other sector of the economy. We need this health bill.
@Carolyn Prescott
Look at Greece. You may get some nifty "health care" now only to have NOTHING after massive hyperinflation and riots in the streets in about 5 years. We have on money to pay for Social Security or Medicare, let alone this boondoggle. The USA is just about to fall off the cliff. You'll be happy to have food in a few years at the current pace of profligate spending and borrowing.
Yes, Don, look at Greece. They were visited by our own Captains of Industry from Goldman-Sachs and set up with a cluster of CDOs disguised as a currency swap to help cook their books to get into the EU. That's what brought them down, not their very decent and efficient health system.
If you were to read a little, you'd learn that we spend more than any other country in the world on our health care (sic) and rank in the middle, or worse, on all health care indices. This bill stops the worse Big Insurance abuses, moves towards prevention, covers 32,000,000 that are now forced to use emergency rooms or forgo care altogether, controls fraud and abuse in Medicaid and Medicare.
I am working all weekend to get this bill passed. I need it. My kids need it. But most of all our country needs it to be competitive again in world markets and put America back to work.
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