Wednesday's Starting Lineup

Good Wednesday morning. One Hotline editor is despondent after GW's season came to an end, while another editor is thrilled his Bonnies beat Duquesne last night to stay alive. What's the world coming to?

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the factors that will drive politics today:

MOMENTUM: As we update the whip count, Speaker Nancy Pelosi's task of securing 216 votes for passage is only getting more difficult. Several members who voted against the legislation when it was first before the House in Nov. told Hotline OnCall yesterday they would vote against the measure again, trimming the number of Dems who might be persuaded to make up the difference.

What's more troubling for the majority, one member who once voted for the bill, Rep. Mike Arcuri (D-NY), said he would vote no. The momentum, in other words, is on the GOP's side, as not a single member who once voted no has said he or she will vote for the Senate bill.

The biggest challenge Dem leadership faces is the same thing that got them in trouble before Aug. recess: They have no legislative language to defend, only a nebulous concept of "fixes" and reconciliation. Until they roll out the companion bill that the Senate will pass, Dems are unlikely to win over any new votes, and they risk popular sentiment solidifying against them in the meantime.

Update: An earlier version of this post mentioned Rep. Jerry McNerney (D-CA) as a "no" voter. McNerney's spokesperson called to correct the record. McNerney is waiting for final legislative language to be released before he makes a decision, the spokesperson said.

U.S. CHAMBER OF COMMERCE: As first reported by National Journal's Peter Stone, the U.S. Chamber of Commerce is launching a massive TV ad campaign in 20 to 25 top districts aimed at fighting back against the final push for health care. The ads, described as the "closing argument," will aim to keep the no votes steady while pressuring lawmakers who once voted for the bill to flip.

The Chamber has already spent more than $100M, and a SCOTUS ruling earlier this year in the Citizens United case makes it certain they will play a big role in influencing elections this midterm season. Corporations that are now able to spend money for political purposes will not do so under their own names, fearing reprisals, but campaign finance experts believe they will funnel funds through the Chamber and other outside groups, making them a powerful force likely to spend more money than even the national parties this year.

REP. BART STUPAK: Meanwhile, Dem leadership is continuing talks with Stupak (D-MI), who claims he has 11 fellow Dems ready to vote against the bill if no abortion compromise is reached. And Stupak himself is throwing cold water on the notion of an impending compromise: He told the Weekly Standard that no deal is imminent, a day after the AP reported he is "more optimistic" about cutting a deal than he was a week ago.

One thing to watch: Whether Rep. Jerry Costello (D-IL) joins Pres. Obama on stage at a rally today in the St. Louis area. Costello voted for the bill and for Stupak's pro-life amendment, making him a prime target for GOPers seeking to flip some Dems. Costello's district is right across the Mississippi River from St. Louis. Stupak won't say who his 11 votes are, but Costello's record in Congress and his earlier votes suggest he's one of them.

It wouldn't be unprecedented if Costello or potentially vulnerable Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO) stayed away from the Obama event; earlier this week, Rep. Patrick Murphy (D-PA) skipped an Obama event in the Philadelphia area because he was handing out a grant to local first responders.

PRES. OBAMA: The counter to groups like the Chamber of Commerce has, over the past year, been POTUS himself. Today, he's back on the campaign trail, both proverbially and literally; he will hold a rally in St. Louis for health care reform, followed by a fundraiser for Sen. Claire McCaskill (D-MO) and the DSCC expected to raise hundreds of thousands of dollars afterwards.

But back in DC, Obama hasn't managed the clock perfectly. The WH is anxious to get health care passed by Easter recess, just like they were anxious to get it finished by Aug. recess, then by Thanksgiving, then by Chirstmas. And Pelosi has had enough: She told WH CoS Rahm Emanuel to stop pressuring the House to pass the Senate bill by March 18, before Pres. Obama leaves for an overseas trip, according to Rep. Henry Waxman (D-CA), who sat in on the leadership meeting at the WH yesterday.

And House Maj. Leader Steny Hoyer echoed the sentiment, pushing back on a March 18 vote. House Dems have yet to schedule any votes, lending credence to the notion that they don't have the votes yet.