April 2010

In case you missed The Hotline's Political Pursuit, we're bringing you our favorite questions of the night. Can anyone get them all correct? If so, you get a special shout-out in Monday's Starting Lineup.

Show off your skills, but don't leave the answers in the comments -- email us with your picks. We warn you, these aren't easy

1. In 1988, George H.W. Bush won a whopping 426 electoral votes by carrying 40 states. Although his son never did as well, George W. Bush DID manage to win 2 of the 10 states that his father lost, at least once. Name both of these states that the younger Bush won where his father could not.

2. On April 12, 2008, when Hillary Clinton famously downed a shot of liquor at a campaign stop in Indiana, what was she drinking?

3. Texas Sen. Phil Gramm may no longer be in Congress, but three of his vanquished opponents are. Name the three current members of the TX delegation who have lost an election to Phil Gramm.

4. Who beat then-DSCC finance chair Nancy Pelosi to become chairman of the DNC in 1985?

5. Only be 10 of the 73 GOP members first elected in '94 are still in the House and are seeking re-election. Name 5 of them.

6. The Des Moines Register does not have a good track record of endorsing Democrats in the Iowa caucuses who end up winning their party's presidential nomination. Give either the year or the Democratic candidate who last received their endorsement AND went on to be nominated by his party.

7. Missouri voted for the winner in every presidential election between 1956 and 2004, but it lost its "bellwether" status in 2008 when it gave its electoral votes to John McCain. Which state currently boasts the longest streak of voting for the winner, having done so in every presidential election since 1960?

8. After the '94 election, 4 House Dems switched parties and became GOPers. Name 2 of them. BONUS: Name the 2 Dem senators who switched parties.

9. On February 3, 2009, Pres. Obama announced that he would appoint Sen. Judd Gregg as his new Secretary of Commerce. And within hours, Governor John Lynch announced he would appoint THIS woman to Gregg's Senate seat, an accomplished academic administrator.

10. Throughout the country's history, which state has lost the most House seats thanks to redistricting? Hint: This state peaked at 36 seats in the early part of the last century.

Newly-minted House Ways and Means Committee chairman Sander Levin (D-MI) is opening his checkbook to help fellow Dems keep their seats -- and to help himself keep the chairmanship.

Levin, who became chairman of the powerful tax-writing panel early last month after ethics clouds forced Rep. Charlie Rangel (D-NY) to step aside, contributed $110K to fellow Dems, by way of the DCCC, in March.

Levin doled out checks to about 2 dozen incumbent members who may face tough re-election races this year, as well as to several Red to Blue contenders -- candidates running for GOP-held seats.

The contributions bring to $230K Levin has donated to the DCCC this cycle. The DCCC suggests dues each member should pay, based on their positions within the caucus, committees or subcommittees they chair and their electoral prospects. Levin led a subcommittee last cycle and contributed $185K.

But as chairman, Levin's dues will be much higher. Though the DCCC zealously guards their dues levels, every member is given a spreadsheet that lists how much they have given, and how much other members have given, as a way to pressure them into handing over more.

Rangel, as chairman last cycle, transferred $685K from his campaign account to the committee. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi leads her caucus, having contributed more than $1.1M to the DCCC.

Dems continue to buy into the DCCC more than GOPers have. Last month, Dem members gave the DCCC just north of $900K, while GOPers handed over $397K to their campaign committee.

-- Stephanie Palla contributed to this report.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts DHS Sec. Janet Napolitano, Interior Sec. Ken Salazar, FL Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and Sec/State Hillary Clinton. The roundtable features NM Gov. Bill Richardson (D-NM), MI Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D-MI), Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) and Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN).

Face the Nation hosts Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA), Sen. Bill Nelson (D-FL), Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) and ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ).

This Week hosts Napolitano and Salazar. The roundtable features Washington Post's George Will, Bill Maher, Rev. Al Sharpton, Ex-Bush strategist Matthew Dowd and The Nation's Katrina vanden Heuvel.

Fox News Sunday hosts Napolitano, Salazar and ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R).The Power Player ex-astronaut Sally Ride. The roundtable features FNC's Brit Hume, NPR's Mara Liasson, Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts Napolitano, Salazar, Crist and Rubio.

See other weekend shows after the jump.

Dems will pick between 2 statewide officeholders in the race to replace retiring Sen. George Voinovich (R), but so far both contenders have disappointed their early partisans.

LG Lee Fisher (D) is widely expected to beat Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D) on Tuesday after a poll, released earlier this week, showing he had finally opened up a substantial lead.

Brunner's fundraising has been abysmal; she raised just $854K through the middle of the month, less than Fisher has in the bank. That's let Fisher run TV ads unchallenged and given him the ability to make himself the front-runner.

Brunner's lackluster fundraising quarters were only part of the story, however. Despite being viewed as the more liberal candidate, she was never able to differentiate herself on the issues with Fisher. Her campaign instead labeled Fisher the ultimate "insider," and insisted that she possessed the "outsider" status. But OH voters may think otherwise, considering that she also holds a position in Gov. Ted Strickland's (D) cabinet.

The Fisher-Brunner contest is the only major battle for a statewide race. Ex-Rep. Rob Portman (R) awaits the winner of the Dem primary, and Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and his general election foe, ex-Rep. John Kasich (R), don't face serious primary challenges.

The latest Quinnipiac Univ. poll, released earlier this week, shows Dems leading both races, but the GOP has reason to be optimistic about picking off both seats. In fact, they have strong chances to win back House seats Dems have picked up in the last 2 cycles.

In the Canton-based 16th district, businessman Jim Renacci (R) is the favored GOPer to take on Rep. John Boccieri (D), and has earned "Contender" status from the NRCC. Renacci has raised over $600K so far, including over $120K from his own pocket, but he's been forced to spend over $500K of that in the primary, where he'll face ex-Ashland Co. Commis. Matt Miller (R) and lobbyist/radio host Paul Schiffer (R). Miller ran in '06 and '08, and has overperformed both times. Renacci is spending sufficient amounts to make sure that doesn't happen, and he's the favorite.

Meanwhile, state Sen. Bob Gibbs (R) has the potential to give Rep. Zack Space (D) a tough race, but he'll first have to get through a primary in the sprawling 18th district, home of Chillicothe, Dover and Zanesville.

Gibbs' opponents are feasting on his vote for a budget proposed by unpopular ex-Gov. Bob Taft (R) that raised taxes. '08 candidate Jeanette Moll (R) and '08 nominee Fred Dailey (R) are the candidates that could benefit should Gibbs stumble, but Dailey underperformed miserably in his '08 race against Space, and Moll hasn't shown the capacity to raise the money needed to win the seat. Gibbs is an NRCC "On the Radar" candidate, and he's raising decent cash, so he'd likely be the strongest GOPer to take on Space.

Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite (R) will step down at the end of this year, ending her 8-year career in Congress because of health problems, according to a statement released by her office.

"As I have prepared for my campaign, I have been troubled by persistent health problems and have come to the disappointing and sad conclusion that I cannot run for reelection. There are simply too many unresolved issues around my health and my pancreas in particular. As of this morning, my doctors are still undecided about what course to pursue next for my treatments," Brown-Waite said in a statement obtained by the Tampa Bay Tribune.

Brown-Waite endorsed sheriff Richard Nugent (R) for her Hernando Co.-based seat, north of Tampa. Nugent told Brown-Waite he would run for the seat, she said in the statement.

She becomes the 20th GOPer to decide against running for another term this year, though like most other GOP-held open seats, the district is unlikely to prove a good opportunity for a Dem pickup. The district gave Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 56% of the vote in '08.

Brown-Waite won election in '02 after serving on the state legislature's redistricting panel. There, she helped draw new boundaries and bested then-Rep. Karen Thurman (D) by a 2-point margin. She never sank below 60% in any of her re-election bids.

Attorney Tom Doolan (D) and former GOPer Jim Piccillo (D) are both running for the Dem nod, though neither have proven viable contenders.

LOUISVILLE, KY -- When is there ever any problem in having a horse in the Kentucky Derby? Perhaps when you're seeking to win the Dem SEN primary in the Bluegrass State a couple of weeks later and your opponent is claiming you're a "silver spoon" candidate.

KY AG Jack Conway co-owns Derby long shot Stately Victor with his father, Tom Conway, a Louisville attorney. Conway's primary opponent, LG Daniel Mongiardo (D), who was previously a small-town doctor, has contrasted his rural Eastern KY roots with Conway's upbringing among the smart set in metropolitan Louisville. And since Stately Victor qualified for the Run for the Roses with a win earlier this month in the Bluegrass Stakes, Mongirado and his staff have taken shots at painting Conway as an elitist by noting he even has a horse in the Derby.

To drive home the point, Mongiardo's campaign schedule currently calls for him to spend the first half of Derby Day in the Churchill Downs infield, customarily a sea of humanity that is far more modest and rowdy than those who will be sitting in the owners' boxes. Later, Modgirado plans to watch the Derby at a picnic at the Keeneland race track in nearby Lexington.

Naturally, Mongiardo is pulling for Stately Victor to pull an upset: "I know Saturday is going to be a special day for Jack and his family, for whom having a horse in the Derby has been a life-long dream," said Mongiardo in a statement. "I wish Jack, his father and the entire Conway family all the best of luck and hope the racing gods smile upon them."

Maybe Mongiardo better pray for good weather as well. Torrential downpours are forecast for Saturday and those could make Mongiardo's foray into the Churchill Downs infield a little messy. On the other hand, maybe it would just drive home his campaign theme -- the owners' seats are usually under cover.

Hoosier State voters have helped Dems pick up seats in recent years, but the state is exhibiting clear signs of incumbent fatigue. On Tuesday, when voters head to the polls to pick federal nominees, several candidates with DC time on their resume could face more trouble than they expected.

Ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R) remains the front-runner in a competitive field vying to replace Sen. Evan Bayh (D), even as one of his rivals has put him on the defensive in recent weeks. And 2 incumbent members of Congress are locked in their own primary contests, fighting for the right to return to DC for another 2 years.

Coats has relied on his prior experience in the Senate, on his name recognition and on endorsements from establishment figures. State Sen. Marlin Stutzman (R), meanwhile, has garnered key endorsements from conservatives like Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), bolstering his lagging fundraising in the final days.

Ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R), Wachovia Securities branch mgr. Don Bates (R) and businessman/Tea Party organizer Richard Behney (R) will also be on the ballot, though none seem to have caught fire with the GOP base.

Stutzman, the favorite of Tea Partiers, has been spending heavily in recent weeks, going up with a TV ad (though Coats has gone up with two) as he sports endorsements from DeMint and ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R). DeMint's Senate Conservatives Fund has been raising money for Stutzman as he makes his last push. Hostettler, meanwhile, has been touting Rep. Ron Paul's (R-TX) backing, while Bates has gone up with a TV ad of his own.

But Howey Politics Indiana's Brian Howey tells Hotline OnCall that while Stutzman's endorsements may play well nationally, within IN, they aren't likely to have a significant impact. "You could go ask 20 people on the streets in downtown Indy or downtown Kendallville and say what do you think of the DeMint endorsement of Marlin Stutzman and I suspect that only one or 2 out of 10 would probably have any idea what you are talking about," said Howey. "Marlin's name ID just is not very high."

The race has largely been defined by attacks on Coats' record from multiple fronts, putting Coats on defense. When Hostettler and Stutzman criticized Coats for voting to confirm Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg, he responded by touting his involvement in Justice Samuel Alito's confirmation process. And earlier this week, Coats finally turned in his personal financial disclosure, following Stutzman complaints.

Come Tuesday, Coats' strong statewide name ID may ultimately be too much to overcome. "A lot of people are expecting a low turnout and the 55 and up age group probably dominating," said Howey. "The fact that he has much higher name ID than just about anybody else. ... He seems to be in pretty good shape." And while Coats' fundraising was not all that impressive, he still outpaced his GOP opponents by a comfortable margin.

Tarheel voters head to the polls Tuesday, but a quiet battle between underfunded Dems could drag on as NC Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D) and ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) face off for the right to challenge Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC).

Most polls show Marshall, who has been elected statewide 4 times, leading, but national Dems prefer Cunningham. Cunningham has already run TV ads, while Marshall just went up on air this week.

Both candidates, though, are keeping an eye on attorney Ken Lewis (D), the only African American candidate in the race. African Americans are expected to make up as much as 35% of the the primary electorate, and Lewis has backing from former Charlotte Mayor Harvey Gantt (D).

The leading candidate must win more than 40% of the vote to avoid a runoff. If necessary, a runoff would be held June 22.

The race has turned negative, too. Lewis's camp is attacking Cunningham over radio ads for being someone who "says one thing then does another behind closed doors."

A run-off could both help and hurt Dems. The 2 remaining candidates would receive another month's worth of earned media coverage, which would help drive up the winner's name ID before the general election. On the other hand, more time spent campaigning for a primary means more money spent at a time when a single Dem candidate could be fundraising in anticipation of Burr's $5M warchest.

Burr is likely to stroll past Asheboro Councilor Eddie Burks (R), businessman Brad Jones and ex-state Rep. Larry Linney (R) in the GOP primary.

Voters in the 8th district will also choose a GOP contender to face off against vulnerable freshman Rep. Larry Kissell (D) in the fall. Considering his marginal CD and poor fundraising skills, Kissell should have drawn a top-tier challenger. But he didn't.

Businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) has put over $1M of his own money into the race, and claims a lead in polling, but he's got plenty of baggage. The NC establishment seems to be rallying around ex-TV sportscaster Harold Johnson (R), who has raised a solid amount of cash and who is running TV ads. But ret. Army Col. Lou Huddleston (R) and tech. engineer Hal Jordan (R) also can't be counted out. With such a jumbled race, it looks like no one will get the 40% needed to avoid a 6/22 runoff. If D'Annunzio emerges victorious in either the primary or the runoff, don't be surprised if the GOP writes the contest off.

No state has sent more GOPers packing over the last 2 election cycles than NH, where Dems picked up 2 House seats and elected Sen. Jeanne Shaheen (D), along with the state legislature. But now, the Granite State may be swinging back.

A UNH Survey Center poll, conducted for WMUR, tested 462 likely voters between April 12-21 for a margin of error of +/- 4.6%. Rep. Paul Hodes (D) was pitted against ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R), attorney Ovide Lamontagne (R) and businessmen Bill Binnie (R) and Jim Bender (R).

GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUPS
Ayotte     47% (+6 from 2/3)     Lamontagne 37  (+8)
Hodes      32  (-1)              Hodes      36  (-2)

Hodes      37  (+1)              Binnie     38  (+8)
Bender     34  (+7)              Hodes      36  (+2)

Smaller subsamples of both the state's House districts show GOP candidates leading. Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D) trails all 4 of her possible rivals, while ex-Rep. Charlie Bass (R) is running ahead of the leading Dems in the race.

The survey is the first reliable NH poll to come out since health care legislation passed last month, and the new law could be holding Dems back. Hodes told Hotline OnCall in an interview last month he will make health care a centerpiece of his campaign, a bolder step than other Dem candidates have taken.

The vast majority of NH voters remain willing to consider another candidate, they told the pollsters. And, in NH, voters actually do keep open minds. Dems have the added advantage of no primary in the SEN contest, meaning Hodes could face a GOPer with depleted resources after the Sept. 14 vote.

But, as the survey shows, GOPers kick off the race with a clear lead, and momentum trending in the right direction.

"World News" led with the Gulf Shore oil disaster. "Evening News" led with oil. "Nightly News" led with oil.

Last night, it was all about FL Gov. Charlie Crist's (R) decision to run for the Senate as an indie.

Ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) appeared on "Hannity" 4/29 p.m.

Rubio, on Crist's original assertion he wouldn't run as an indie: "He wasn't telling the truth when he said that or obviously he's changed his mind because of self-preservation. As far as I'm concerned, it doesn't change the race at all. When I got in this race I got in this race because I didn't see anybody else running that would stand up to Barack Obama's agenda and offer a clear alternative. And that's still the case.:

More Rubio: "So I'm running against two candidates, Kendrick Meek and Charlie Crist, who support the Obama agenda. I didn't realize I'd be running against both of them at the same time. I thought there'd be a primary and then a general. But that's fine, too. ... We're going to win this election because we're on the right side of the issues."

Rubio, on whether "character" is now a campaign issue: "Character is always an issue. But I'll tell you why it's really problematic. The one thing that's really missing in American politics today is accountability. The ability to elect somebody who says they're going to do something and then they go to Washington and do it. And the problem ... is that the scourge of modern American politics are folk that will say or do anything to get elected. Their number one interest is climbing up the political ladder. And I think we saw an example of that today."

After the jump, more from Rubio, and comments from Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) on Crist's decision and the race in general.

Good Friday morning. Didn't make it to The Hotline's Political Pursuit last night? Never fear, we'll have more trivia questions for you to noodle over later today.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics in the next week:

SENATE DEMOCRATS: It's an election year, which means difficult votes are usually off the table as members scramble to win another term. But Dems actually need to activate their base, rather than calm anyone down, so they have one more difficult vote they'd like to take before Election Day -- a vote on comprehensive immigration reform.

Senate Dems on Thursday unveiled a legislative framework they hope can muster the 60 votes necessary to pass GOP roadblocks. The framework focuses first on border security and efforts to cut down on illegal immigration all while offering illegal immigrants already in the country a path to citizenship.

Though it would increase funding for border security, GOPers are having no part of the legislation. Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), the only GOPer who had been talking with Dems about immigration reform, issued a statement with Senate GOP whip Jon Kyl (R-AZ) blasting the proposal, while GOP leaders Mitch McConnell and John Boehner ruled out voting on the bill this year.

GOP CANDIDATES: Boehner and McConnell have a good point: An engaged Hispanic segment of the electorate is a good thing for Dems, given that Hispanic voters have begun trending more heavily to the left. But there hasn't been much of a rush to embrace new legislation in AZ, even though the law is hugely popular with the enforcement-first segment of the GOP base.

There's a reason for that caution: Even some GOPers, like ex-FL Gov. Jeb Bush and a growing number of members of Congress, find the bill objectionable. In '05 and '06, Hispanic voters abandoned the GOP in droves after Rep. Jim Sensenbrenner's (R-WI) attempt to win passage of his immigration reform language. The party has the opportunity to drive Hispanic voters further away by embracing the AZ legislation, and their senior members sincerely hope they don't take advantage of that opportunity.

A few moments from last night's second annual Hotline Political Pursuit, courtesy of National Journal's Liz Lynch:

More shots after the jump.

"Print media is not dead!" The Hotline's John Mercurio declared, as a powerhouse team of old-school journalists stormed back to take the crown at the second annual edition of Political Pursuit.

The team, anchored by Roll Call's Shira Toeplitz, Time's Jay Newton Small, Washington Post's Chris Cillizza and veteran political analyst Stu Rothenberg, got off to a slow start but turned in consistently solid late-round performances.

Their 225 points bested a team of members of Congress, who finished second with 190 points, and a team of broadcast journalists, who brought up the rear with 160.

Sens. Roger Wicker (R-MS), Sherrod Brown (D-OH) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI) and ex-Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA) could not defend their title after winning an overwhelming victory last year.

NBC's Chuck Todd, a former Hotline editor in chief, helped the broadcast journalism team take a brief lead, thanks to his encyclopedic knowledge of House and SEN races. Able assists from CNN's Dana Bash, ABC's Jonathan Karl and PBS's Judy Woodruff weren't enough to keep up, proving new media isn't dominant quite yet.

Spotted in the crowd: Washington Post executive editor Marcus Brauchli, ex-Rep. Martin Frost (D-TX) The Hill's Christina Wilkie, Rove & Co. chief Michael O'Donnell, the Salt Lake Tribune's Tommy Burr, Washington Post's Paul Kane, GOP pollster Steve Lombardo, NRSC communications director Brian Walsh, Politico's Josh Kraushaar, AP's Phil Elliott and more.

Check back tomorrow for more updates and photos from the second annual event, and don't wait to get on the list for next year! We're already writing new questions.

The second annual Hotline Political Pursuit, a heated test of top trivia mavens, is happening now at a packed DAR hall.

The teams include members of Congress (Sen. Sherrod Brown, ex-Rep. Tom Davis, Sen. Roger Wicker and Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse), broadcast journalists (NBC's Chuck Todd, CNN's Dana Bash, PBS's Judy Woodruff and ABC's Jonathan Karl) and old school print journalists (Time's Jay Newton Small, Roll Call's Shira Toeplitz, Stu Rothenberg and Washington Post's Chris Cillizza).

The scores after the fourth round:

Members Only    210
Broadcast       185
Print           185

After the jump, photos from the event.

He hasn't even made an announcement yet, but already FL Gov. Charlie Crist's visage has been scrubbed from the NRSC's website.

Crist, the first and only challenger candidate the NRSC recruited this year, doesn't appear on the committee's Sunshine State page. Sen. George LeMieux (R), ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), Sen. Bill Nelson (D) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) are all still on the page.

Crist's name appears in caches of the NRSC page, and some articles mentioning Crist remain up. But most have been removed already. NRSC chair John Cornyn's endorsement of Crist, made last May, has been taken down.

Earlier today, meeting with reporters at a breakfast sponsored by the NRSC, Cornyn said he was irritated with Crist, who has not returned Cornyn's phone calls. The committee, Cornyn said, is ready to back Rubio.

"I've sort of given up in frustration," Cornyn said of his efforts to reach Crist.

An NRSC spokesman acknowledged that Crist's image has been removed from the site. He declined further comment in lieu of the committee's statement, which will come shortly after Crist makes his announcement.

Crist's declaration will come at an event at 5:30 p.m. in St. Petersburg, his home town, where he will file papers to run for LeMieux's seat.

Congressional Dems are upbeat that they will score political mileage from the current Senate debate on Wall Street reform, according to the new National Journal Congressional Insiders poll. GOPers are more cautious, but most don't expect a big impact -- especially compared to debates on economy and health care.

All of the Dems responding to this week's poll said that the issue will help their party in the midterm elections. Of the group, 56% predicted that it will "help a lot," and 41% said that it will "help a little." The more enthusiastic Dems said that they are on the right side of the issue in seeking to clean-up Wall Street after the '08 financial disaster, and that GOPers have misread the politics.

"The GOP has really stepped in it on this issue and misread the public anger about it," one Dem lawmaker said. Other Dems replied that GOP talking points have been "flimsy," and that Dems "own this issue."

Another Dem replied that the issue -- which has become mired in legislative machinations this week -- is a political winner. "Wall Street reform is as popular to Americans as Wednesday is to American Idol fans."

GOPers replied that the Dems are over-playing their hand and over-stating the significance of the conflict. "It's all about jobs and health care. Regulatory reform doesn't move any numbers," responded one GOPer. Another added that voters are "indifferent" to the issue. "Has any Member had people demanding financial reform flooding their town halls?"

Some of the GOP saw the potential to make limited gains from the debate. According to one Insider, "It'll come down to how effectively Republican candidates can paint Democrats as wanting permanent bailouts for their friends on Wall Street." Another replied, "The government taking over everything is wearing very thin."

Another question asked about the commission that Pres. Obama appointed to propose deficit-reduction options, which held its first meeting this week. Strong majorities of Dems replied that the commission should focus on each of 5 suggested areas: defense spending, domestic discretionary spending, Medicare, Social Security, and tax increases.

"If this body wastes a chance to make tough choices in these typically untouchable areas, then our country is doomed," warned a Dem Insider.

GOPers mostly agreed, and voiced near unanimity for the three domestic spending topics. But only 23% said that the commission should consider tax hikes. In a comment that reflected that hostility, a GOP Insider replied, "We could double everyone's income taxes and still run deficits. Listen to the people - it's the spending, stupid."

See the complete poll and more responses here.

Outside interest groups are pouring hundreds of thousands of dollars into the AR SEN race, almost all of it on behalf of the 2 leading Dem candidates.

The US Chamber of Commerce is the latest to wade in, dumping $600K into ads aimed at bolstering Sen. Blanche Lincoln's (D) campaign. Lincoln is one of the few Dems who have opposed key elements of organized labor's agenda, making her a popular Chamber ally.

But those stands have earned her enemies too. Unions have poured about $900K into the state, advertising and mailing their members on LG Bill Halter's (D) behalf. Arkansans For Change, a 527 group funded by unions, has spent about $400K, while Working America, another union-sponsored effort, has

Now, the AFL-CIO is joining the fight, slamming Lincoln for her votes in favor of NAFTA and CAFTA and for votes in favor of the Bush tax cuts. The mailers will land in 25K union mailboxes this week, a labor source tells Hotline OnCall, to be followed by automated phone calls.

Lincoln and Halter have plenty to spend, and they'll need to in advance of the May 18 primary. A new survey conducted for the liberal DailyKos website by independent firm Research 2000 shows Lincoln clinging to a 43%-35% lead -- down from a 12-point lead just 2 weeks ago.

Halter has better favorable ratings among Dem voters, the poll shows -- 66% of Dem voters view him favorably, while 59% say the same about Lincoln. And, the poll shows, Halter runs better against every major GOP candidate, though he would still begin the general election race trailing.

If neither candidate gets more than 50% -- an unlikely scenario, given the third Dem in the race is a little-known conservative who used the race's only debate to oppose most of the Dem agenda -- Lincoln and Halter would head to a runoff, to be held June 8.

The poll was conducted April 26-28 among 600 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. The primary election matchup was tested among 400 likely Dem primary voters for a margin of error of +/- 5%.

5-term Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) will run for a promotion as the outsider candidate against 2 men he regards as insider establishment GOPers -- ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) and FL Gov. Charlie Crist. It may be a difficult path to take, but it's a popular storyline this year: Rubio and Crist are also running against DC and insider party politics.

"I was not the chosen candidate by the quote unquote Democratic bosses," Meek said in an interview with Hotline reporters and editors. "I'm glad I'm not from central casting."

Meek said he was not worried about losing moderate independent voters to Crist and that he would have no problem holding on to his Dem base. He touted his grassroots and GOTV operation, and said that his 120K signature drive finished earlier this month was a successful list-building exercise that helped him connect with voters all across the state.

And Crist's decision to run as an independent, which he is expected to announce later today, makes Meek the big winner by dividing the GOP vote. As Meek repeats often, he sees himself running against 2 GOPers, not just one.

"Once we start to really get to the point where people see my candidacy, I believe we'll be at the front of line," Meek said, anticipating Crist's switch today. "But we're at least equal now."

Meek framed Crist as a flip-flopper and Rubio as a far-right extremist, and said the 2 have been "literally ripping each other apart" for the last 6 months. He's happy to let them continue doing so.

Addressing a question on whether Rubio will win the pivotal Latino vote in FL, Meek's media consultant, Steve Murphy, argued that the FL Latino vote isn't monolithic and Rubio will have trouble unifying the demographic behind his candidacy thanks to divisive immigration debates. Murphy also suggested that Rubio's support to cut Social Security and Medicare would be highlighted in an attack ad this fall. Meek added that the difference between himself and Rubio is that he "embraces reality" and Rubio "embraces ideology."

Senate Dems have introduced a major campaign finance reform measure without a GOP sponsor, diminishing the bill's chances of reaching a bipartisan conclusion even as the House version attracts some GOP support.

Sens. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), Russ Feingold (D-WI), Ron Wyden (D-OR) and Evan Bayh (D-IN) introduced the measure, aimed at responding to the high court's decision to allow corporations and unions to spend more money on political ads.

The House version is also set to drop today. DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen will sponsor the measure along with Reps. Mike Castle (R-DE) and Walter Jones (R-NC).

The measure would increase transparancy, limit some companies from spending money on elections and force CEOs of corporations that do spend the money to go on camera and stand by the ad.

Van Hollen and Schumer have support from Pres. Obama, who openly criticized the Court's ruling during his State of the Union speech in Jan. In a statement, Obama hailed the "strong bipartisan legislation."

"The legislation introduced today would establish the toughest-ever disclosure requirements for election-related spending by big oil corporations, Wall Street and other special interests, so the American people can follow the money and see clearly which special interests are funding political campaign activity and trying to buy representation in our government," Obama said. "I have long believed that sunlight is the best disinfectant, and this legislation will shine an unprecedented light on corporate spending in political campaigns."

But convincing GOPers to back the bill in the Senate will be a high bar to clear. Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell is a staunch opponent of efforts to tighten campaign finance laws, and in a statement released Thursday he characterized the Van Hollen-Schumer legislation as an attempt to limit free speech.

"It should be beyond suspicious when the man in charge of electing Democrats in the House teams up with the man who held the same job in the Senate to tell Americans how they can express themselves in an election," McConnell said. "Make no mistake about it, the campaign finance bill introduced this morning is not about reform, transparency, accountability or good government. It is about election advantage plain and simple."

FL Gov. Charlie Crist is likely to announce this afternoon he will abandon his party and seek Sen. George LeMieux's (R) seat as an independent as he struggles to resurrect a political career that was, once, so promising.

But Crist's downfall can be instructive to other candidates, as it illustrates the modern realities of American politics. The lessons we glean, and the false lessons to avoid, from Crist's decision:

-- Mind the store. A politician's reputation can be his best asset, or his worst enemy. In Crist's case, an independent candidacy is just the latest evidence that he'll do anything to advance his own career. It goes along with his embrace, then distance, then re-embrace of the stimulus bill; with his new-found opposition to offshore oil drilling; and with all manner of other positions he's changed during his career.

Crist has such a reputation for changing his mind based on political winds that everyone from Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) to NRSC chair John Cornyn has indicated they won't actually be convinced Crist is running as an independent until the words come out of Crist's mouth. That's not a good thing for any politician, especially one who will run against 2 contenders portraying themselves as leaders, as Meek and ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) are doing.

-- Don't lose control. Crist is a flip-flopping moderate who's never had a position he won't sell out to win a vote. Or at least that's what FL GOP activists have been told for the last year straight, ever since Rubio began near-constant attacks on Crist's reputation. And now, it doesn't matter if Crist has an excellent rebuttal that stands as a shining example of his pure conservative philosophy -- those activists have made up their minds.

In the autopsy to follow the '10 race, strategists will note Crist focused more on raising big bucks than he did in actually communicating with voters. He used some of his fortune to run ads hitting Rubio over the FL GOP credit card scandal, but those ads didn't move the numbers, proving Rubio had successfully controlled the discussion over voters' view of Crist. If Crist had engaged earlier, he might not be in the awkward position of having to run as an independent.

NRSC chairman John Cornyn is not convinced a candidate running under the Tea Party banner is anything but a pawn in Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid's grand plan to win re-election.

Speaking to reporters this morning at an event sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor, Cornyn voiced support for the movement as a whole. But he questioned businessman Scott Ashjian, who is running under the banner of an official political party in NV called the Tea Party.

"There are some I think some special concerns about what happened in Nevada, whether [Ashjian] is of the Tea Party movement or whether he is a way for Harry Reid to thread the needle," Cornyn said.

GOPers stand to lose if Ashjian becomes a significant factor in the race -- a third-party candidate could lower the threshold Reid must meet to win another term. The Tea Party Express, which has endorsed ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R), has even run an ad calling Ashjian a fraud.

Ashjian, a registered GOPer before he decided to run against Reid, has denied he has any connection to Reid's camp. In fact, Ashjian's GOP registration was the basis for a lawsuit seeking to kick him off the ballot. Earlier this month, a judge threw out a suit that contended Ashjian was inelligible because he was not registered with the Tea Party when he signed his declaration of candidacy.

Polls show Ashjian isn't much of a factor yet. A recent Mason-Dixon survey for the Las Vegas Review Journal showed Ashjian winning just 2% of the vote, lower even than a candidate running under the banner of the Independent American Party.

In that survey, ex-NV GOP chair Sue Lowden (R) led the pack with 47% of the vote, followed by Reid's 37%. Reid has been advertising for months, playing positive spots focused on his record. Reid has another set of ads, touting recently-passed health care legislation's benefits to NV voters, set to begin running Friday, according to NV political analyst Jon Ralston.

But, Cornyn said, those ads demonstrate just how difficult Reid's position currently is.

"Harry's already spent $2 million on TV advertising that does not appear to [have] moved the needle," Cornyn said.

Updated: Reid spokesman Kelly Steele fired back Thursday afternoon: "John Cornyn should take off his tin foil hat and worry more about his field of candidates, which ranges from right-wingers way out of the mainstream in Nevada, to a woman who's become a national laughingstock because she thinks bartering livestock constitutes health care reform."

Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and LG Lee Fisher (D) hold small leads over their respective opponents, according to a new survey, but the path to victory for both GOP candidates remains wide open.

The Quinnipiac Univ. poll surveyed 1,568 registered voters between April 21-26 for a margin of error of +/- 2.5%. Strickland was matched against ex-Rep. John Kasich (R), and Fisher, running for Sen. George Voinovich's (R) seat, was tested against ex-Rep. Rob Portman (R).

GOV GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUP    SEN GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUP
Strickland  44 (+1 from 3/29)   Fisher      40 (-1)
Kasich      38 (+0)             Portman     37 (+0)

How good does the poll look for Dems? Even Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D) leads Portman, by a 40%-36% margin. Brunner hasn't advertised on TV at all, while Fisher has only purchased about $900K in ad time -- a pittance in such a huge state.

Both Dems, though, face a glaring problem: Independent voters favor the GOP candidate by a 38%-33% margin in the GOV race and by a 35%-31% margin in the SEN race. Indie voters abandoned '09 VA GOV nominee Creigh Deeds (D) in droves, handing an overwhelming victory to Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) and spotlighting again the importance of winning over unaffiliated voters.

Still, Dems are optimistic that OH is one of the contests in which their party's better infrastructure could matter. The state party is much stronger than the state GOP, and a national effort to turn out new voters who backed Pres. Obama in '08 could provide an additional 750K votes, DNC chair Tim Kaine told reporters yesterday.

That, alone, could be enough to swing the races in Strickland's and Fisher's favor. But it's going to be a heavy lift. A project that ambitious hasn't been tried before, and the Dem candidates' entire fortunes may be resting on the untested, and risky, strategy.

"World News" led with the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. "Evening News" led with fire. "Nightly News" led with burning oil from the Gulf of Mexico spill.

Gov. Jan Brewer (R) went "On the Record" 4/28 p.m.

Brewer, on whether AZ feels "abandoned" by nat'l leaders on immigration: "Since I've been governor since last January, I have written numerous letters to the administration in regards to securing our borders with absolutely no response. So we have been facing this crisis, and it's devastating the people of Arizona. And I feel as governor I have a responsibility to protect the citizens. We've been inundated with criminal activity. It's been outrageous."

More Brewer: "And we're not going to put up with it any longer. And I hope that now we've got senate bill 1070 signed and ready to go into law that we'll get somebody's attention. But it is the federal government's responsibility to secure our borders. Our states cannot sustain it."

Brewer, on Obama calling the bill "misguided": "He has a right to say whatever he wants to say. But 'misguided' -- I think he's wrong. I have a responsibility to the people of Arizona. And I'm sure he's concerned because of the brouhaha and over-dramatic comments about racial profiling. I made perfectly clear when I signed the bill that we would not tolerate racial profiling. It's illegal."

After the jump, more from Brewer.

Good Thursday morning. Getting excited for tonight's Hotline Political Pursuit? Stay with OnCall all night and we'll have this year's best questions for real political junkies.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing what will make a difference in politics today:

FL GOV. CHARLIE CRIST: Crist is expected to make his bolt from the GOP official at a rally in St. Petersburg today, ending a once-promising GOP career in order to salvage a flagging SEN bid. Crist's decision would have been unthinkable a year ago -- he was riding high in the polls, he was the only candidate to be endorsed by the NRSC and he was considered a future WH contender.

But is this Crist's high water mark? Polls show he's tied atop a 3-way field with ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R). Without a party apparatus behind him, and with money drying up, Crist could slowly bleed support until he's a non-factor. Rubio, on the other hand, says he won't change his campaign style at all, but he now has 4 extra months to appeal to centrist voters, a population he'll need to win over to avoid letting Crist be the spoiler.

The big winner today: Rep. Kendrick Meek (D). He'll now be included in any debates, and national Dems are signaling they will get involved in his race. But even Meek isn't sold, given Crist's reputation for evolving views: In an interview with The Hotline yesterday, Meek said repeatedly he wouldn't believe Crist is really switching parties until Crist says it himself.

THE STIMULUS: We've said it before, and we'll say it again: Voters aren't going to cast ballots based on the health care overhaul, financial regulatory reform, immigration or most other bills coming out of Congress. They're going to cast votes based on their perception of the economy. That perception, 6 months before the midterm elections, isn't a good thing for Dems, according to new data from the Pew Research Center.

Dems will argue theirs is the party of results, as DNC chair Tim Kaine told reporters yesterday. "There's never a risk to be running on results. We just have to tell the story well," he said. So far, Dems have not sold their centerpiece legislation, the stimulus package. Just 33% of Americans say the stimulus bill has helped the jobs situation, while 62% say it has not.

The DNC will spent $50M on the midterm elections, including a direct $20M investment in individual races, a plan chairman Tim Kaine called the most ambitious approach to a midterm election in the party's history.

Meeting with reporters today at a lunch sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor, Kaine said the party will focus not just on the millions of voters who regularly cast ballots in midterm elections, but also on the 15M new voters who turned out in the '08 election. Those voters, Kaine said, could make a key difference in tight races this year.

"We know who these voters are, we know where they are and their loyalty to the president," Kaine said. "Being able to increase turnout will have a significant impact."

In key states, Kaine said, voters who turned out for the first time to vote for Pres. Obama can make the difference. There are 400K first-time voters in CO, where Dems are defending SEN and GOV seats; 750K in OH, where Dems are pursuing a SEN seat while defending Gov. Ted Strickland (D); and 1.3M in TX, where Dems are going after Gov. Rick Perry (R).

The money the party spends will contribute to Dems' financial lead over the GOP. The RNC, for example, does not have the cash to significantly invest in races of its own, and top GOP strategists say they do not expect help from the RNC as the midterms draw closer.

Still, polls show Dems in a precarious position as voters make the most of their chance to register dissatisfaction with the country's direction. To counter that, Dems will try hard to make the election a choice between the 2 parties. While the party will brag about its achievements during the last several years, a referendum on Dem leadership could still prove disastrous.

"There's never a risk to be running on results. We just have to tell the story well," Kaine said. "It makes a lot of sense to run a race on the results of the president."

Meanwhile, Dems will drive home the impression that GOPers are little more than the party of no. "There has been a political decision by the leaders [of the GOP] that [obstruction] is their best strategy," Kaine said. "The other guys haven't done anything but stand in the way."

Pres. Obama's call to volunteers to help re-engage minority voters who propelled him to an historic win and DNC chairman Tim Kaine's assertion that the GOP engages in voter suppression amounted to playing the race card, RNC chairman Michael Steele said today.

In an interview with Hotline OnCall Wednesday afternoon, Steele highlighted a video the DNC put out earlier this week, in which Obama asked volunteers to help him rebuild a coalition of African American, Hispanic and women voters in advance of the midterm elections. Steele also pointed to prepared remarks for a speech Kaine was to give today, first reported by the Wall Street Journal, in which Kaine planned to charge that the GOP "still seeks to suppress the vote and initiate arbitrary challenges, particularly challenging minority and low-income voters."

"All of us want to engage everyone in the electorate to come out and examine closely the policies of this administration, the policies that Republicans are putting out there," Steele told Hotline OnCall. "Where I have a problem and where I draw the line is where it is done in a manner that becomes racially tinged, that seeks to invoke fear as opposed to education, that seeks to marginalize the voters into believing that you have to continue to do it the same old way, otherwise the boogeyman will get you."

Meeting with reporters at a luncheon sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor today, Kaine called Steele's charges unfounded and cited Steele's own commitment to building new bridges to minority populations.

"I think it's ridiculous," Kaine said of the race card charge. "You know, just a week ago, the chairman of the Republican Party said 'We need to do more to attract minority voters.' And that was not a race card, it was just stating the obvious fact."

Steele said the 2 approaches were vastly different, and he saved his harshest rhetoric for the DNC chairman.

A private poll conducted for a top House GOPer shows the perception of the Tea Party movement has been unchanged since Jan. among independents.
Pres. Obama, Bill Clinton and Dem leaders have berated Tea Party groups for violence and language the Dem leaders consider to be outside the mainstream. Dem strategists have driven the message for months, and a KY Dem candidate, LG Daniel Mongiardo, even launched a Web site last month to educate voters about the downsides of the movement.

But it's not working, according to the survey conducted by GOP pollster John McLaughlin for House Min. Whip Eric Cantor's campaign.

Among the independent voters tested, 60% agreed that the Tea Party movement is a movement of concerned citizens rather than anti-government activists -- a finding unchanged since it was tested 3 months ago. The numbers were virtually even among independent men and women, with 61% of independent men generally agreeing with the Tea Party movement and 59% of independent women thinking the same.

Of the Dem voters tested in the poll, negative opinions of the movement jumped up 12 points, leading Cantor aides to deduce that the poll shows that recent Dem activity panning the movement was engineered to drive up the negative impression of the Tea Party groups simply in order to motivate the depressed Dem base in what many assume will be a base-driven election.

Indeed, DCCC spokesman Ryan Rudominer said, "There's no question the Tea Party definitely fires up our base."

But Rudominer added that trying to define the Tea Party is also an attempt to drive GOP candidates for Congress straight to the group's platform and force them further to the right in advance of the midterm elections.

"This is going to be the summer of the Tea Party primaries," Rudominer said, pointing to the late summer dates of some primaries that the DCCC believes will have a negative effect for the eventual GOP nominees on their general election chances.

GOPers, however, are less concerned about that given the shift in independent voters' attitudes toward their party. Still, aides conceded that the GOP minority was not held in particularly high esteem in the poll, either.

McLaughlin's poll, conducted April 13-15 of 1,000 likely voters, carried a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

Ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R) has dumped $200K of his own money into a last-minute push before Tuesday's GOP primary -- a primary that may have gotten closer in the final weeks.

Coats has loaned his campaign the money at the same time state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (R) has gotten a boost from a prominent national conservative. The Senate Conservatives Fund, headed by Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), endorsed Stutzman last week and is running radio ads touting their nod.

DeMint's group has also proven helpful on the fundraising front, providing $188K to Stutzman's campaign since announcing the endorsement. The SCF is aiming to raise $250K for Stutzman before Tuesday.

Coats had proven a slower fundraiser than some had anticipated, raising $445K since becoming a candidate last quarter. Through April 14, he had just $291K in the bank. But he enjoys more traditional establishment GOP support, accepting endorsements from ex-Sen. Fred Thompson and Christian conservative leader James Dobson and campaign contributions from PACs controlled by Sens. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), Thad Cochran (R-MS) and Judd Gregg (R-NH).

Stutzman, meanwhile, has attracted backing from conservatives like ACU chief David Keene, RedState.com writer Erick Erickson and others.

As a measure of the toll Stutzman's late charge may be taking, Coats is up with a new ad highlighting his opposition to the just-passed health care overhaul and his conservative values.

Check out Coats' new ad after the jump.

The Hotline's John Mercurio writes:

As we await final word on the future of Florida Gov. Charlie Crist (R?), consider this glaring piece of irony: Crist's decision on whether to bolt the GOP and run for Senate as an independent is driven in part by polls suggesting that his prospects brighten dramatically in a three-way vote. But the election is still more than six months away. And six months ago, similar polls showed Crist sporting supposedly "insurmountable" leads in the GOP primary over some nobody named Marco Rubio.

Is anyone reminding Crist of that reality today? Maybe so, which would explain why we've been treated this week to a fresh round of pre-bituaries of Crist's political career.

...

Crist got some indirect encouragement to bolt his party this week from someone he's being widely compared with these days. "When I lost the Democratic primary for re-election in 2006 in Connecticut, it was the most painful, most disappointing moment of my political career," said Sen. Joe Lieberman, I/D-Conn., on CNN when asked about Crist's predicament. "Yet as I look back to it -- and it sure didn't feel like that then -- I feel like I was done a favor."

The comparisons are limited. (Lieberman, for example, had a national fundraising base in 2006 and ran as the de facto nominee of the other major party. Crist can expect to enjoy neither asset.) But one similarity is already apparent: If he does prevail in November, Crist may caucus with Republicans but is unlikely to be the loyalist he once claimed to be. In vetoing a GOP-backed schools bill earlier this month, Crist compared GOP tactics to advance the legislation to those congressional Democrats used to pass health reform -- by "jamming something down their throats."

Last week, in an interview with WFTS-TV, Crist even stopped trying to defend, explain or apologize for hugging Obama last year. "Absolutely not," he said, when asked (again) if he regretted the move. "I embrace it, no pun intended."

Read the entire column here.

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) will tell voters whether he plans to make a Senate bid as an independent candidate in an announcement tomorrow in his home town.

Crist's campaign will hold a candidate qualifying event in St. Petersburg, after telling reporters all week that he hoped to decide on an independent run by Thursday. Candidates must file by Friday.

All signs point to an independent bid. Crist conducted a poll earlier this week, aimed at testing his viability as a third-party candidate, while public polls show he trails ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) by a wide margin in the GOP primary. The latest public poll shows Crist and Rubio virtually tied in a potential 3-way race.

More evidence of an impending independent bid: Crist is expected to hold a kickoff-type rally this weekend in a Miami suburb where his wife has a home, the Orlando Sentinel reported yesterday.

Meanwhile, Crist aides and advisors have quietly made plans to bolt if he does leave the GOP. Crist could lose pollster Public Opinion Strategies and general consultant Stuart Stevens, head of the Stevens Schriefer Group, as well as several top staffers.

Though few issues rile the conservative base like immigration, GOP candidates have taken a cautious approach toward a controversial new AZ law that would give authorities the power to detain individuals based on the suspicion that they may be in the country illegally.

Few front-running candidates have embraced the new law, opting instead to highlight the frustration that led to the legislation's passage without saying flat-out they support the measure.

"The Arizona law is a natural reaction of states trying to solve a problem that the federal government has basically ignored for 30 years. Year in and year out, states have been forced to shoulder the increased costs associated with illegal immigration," ex-CO LG Jane Norton (R) said. "If I'm elected as US Senator, I will stand up for the rights of states like Arizona to protect their citizens from illegal immigration."

Some candidates have come out against provisions in the bill that would give law enforcement the right to request proof of citizenship, even while voicing support for stronger immigration laws.

"The issue of illegal immigration is a real and profound problem for all Americans. I believe we need a strong wall to stop the flow of illegal immigrants into our country," NH businessman Bill Binnie told Hotline OnCall. But, he added: "The immigration laws passed in Arizona threaten innocent law-abiding Americans and that is troublesome. No American citizen should ever have to hear the words, 'Your papers please.'"

Meanwhile, top GOP leaders have begun to question the legislation, noting the potential long-term impact an exodus of Hispanic voters would have on the GOP. Yesterday, ex-FL Gov. Jeb Bush (R) came out against the bill, telling Politico it "creates unintended consequences." Earlier, ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) said he had "concerns" about the bill, especially about its enforcement provisions.

LG Lee Fisher (D) has his first substantial lead in the Dem primary, according to a new survey out this morning, largely because voters believe he is most likely to win an election in Nov.

The Quinnipiac Univ. poll tested 987 likely Dem primary voters between April 22-26, for a margin of error of +/- 3.1%. Fisher and Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D) were tested.

PRIMARY ELECTION MATCHUP
Fisher     41 (+8 from last, 3/30)
Brunner    24 (-2)

The gap comes after a cable advertising blitz that has cost Fisher about $900K, according to FEC reports filed earlier this month. That spending means Fisher is down to $906K in the bank. Still, Brunner's fundraising never got off the ground, and she entered the final 3 weeks of the primary battle with only $58K on hand.

A huge number of Dem voters haven't heard of either candidate -- 48% don't know enough about Fisher to view him favorably or unfavorably, and fully 65% of Dems don't know enough about Brunner. But voters see Fisher as most electable -- 46% said Fisher is most likely to beat ex-Rep. Rob Portman (R), while just 16% chose Brunner.

Either Dem would be an underdog against Portman, who has stockpiled $7.6M and faces no serious GOP opposition in next week's primary.

"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" led with Goldman Sachs execs testifying before Congress.

MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) went on "Campbell Brown" 4/27 p.m.

Pawlenty, on whether he supports the AZ immigration law: "I haven't had a chance to go through it in detail yet, but I think it reflects a number ... of things. Arizona is clearly frustrated with the lack of attention and action from the federal government on this issue. [And] we need an immigration system that allows for legal and orderly and reasonable immigration. But the current system is not that."

More Pawlenty: "It's frustrating and it's broken. So, it needs to be fixed. They're taking steps to do that. I applaud their efforts to try to have better enforcement. But I am concerned about the standard that law enforcement can and must interact with anybody and try to detain or interact with somebody on probable cause. ... I think the definition of what is the probable cause to believe that somebody is here illegally, that would have to be better defined. And we have got to get some comfort around that."

CNN's Brown: "So, you're not OK with the law as it is now? There are a lot of people saying it is unconstitutional, and there are also a lot of people ... who believe that, if you're Latino and you're in Arizona, you should be afraid to walk down the street now."

Pawlenty: "We do need better enforcement for immigration. But we need to do it in a fair manner, and we need to do it in a nondiscriminatory manner. And how they interpret this language in this statute, in this law, which is pretty ambiguous, is going to be a very important part about whether this is fair and whether it works or not, and that remains to be seen. ... To be able to say to law enforcement you must approach people on reasonable suspicion, how are you defining reasonable suspicion? It has a lot of definitional work that needs to be done" (CNN, 4/27).

After the jump, more on the immigration law.

Good Wednesday morning. Congratulations to reader Richard Skinner, the first to correctly answer 4 out of 5 trivia questions we asked yesterday. The only one he got wrong: There have been 45 children of senators who eventually became senators themselves. Check back this afternoon for more questions.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter today in politics:

THE FED-UP ELECTORATE: New polling data released today shows Americans growing more satisfied with Pres. Obama, but more fed up with the rest of DC. The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Obama's approval rating at 54%, the highest point in 6 months, and voters have improving opinions of his handling of everything from health care to the economy. Voters also trust Dems to better handle their problems than GOPers, by a 14-point margin, and Dems hold a 49%-43% advantage on the generic Congressional ballot.

But voters are sick of DC, and with Dems in charge, that's going to impact the majority party more than the minority. Just 32% say they will vote to re-elect their member of Congress, while 57% will look around for someone else -- the lowest level of support for incumbents since 2 weeks before the '94 elections.

Dems have all the structural advantages this year -- more money, a bigger bully pulpit and a still-popular president who has agreed to contribute his time and energy to re-electing vulnerable members. What's more, even conservative commentators agree the economy is rounding a corner. But the wave of discontent within the fed-up electorate is established, and that alone could have enough of an impact to help GOPers claw back a boatload of seats.

SEN. RICHARD SHELBY: The ranking member on the Senate Banking Committee is the top GOPer negotiating the financial regulatory reform legislation both parties hope will eventually reach the floor. "We're going to get a bill. We hope it's a substantive, good bill," Shelby said this morning on MSNBC.

It's a matter of when, not if. It's also a matter of what the bill will look like -- Dems are still pushing for stronger controls on derivatives, while GOPers say the bill as written would put too much pressure on local banks. "A lot of wall street firms like the Dodd bill. It's main street" that doesn't, Shelby added.

This Thursday marks The Hotline's second annual Political Pursuit, an event that brings out the best and the brightest political trivia minds. To get our competitors up to form, here are more questions from last year.

Our first reader to answer at least 4 of today's 5 questions correctly gets a special shout-out in tomorrow's Starting Lineup. Congratulations to commenter Yijie, who was first out of the box yesterday. Email us your answers for a chance to win.

1. Which member of Congress did not directly inherit his seat from his father?

     a) Rep. Lacy Clay (D-MO)
     b) Rep. Charlie Gonzales (D-TX)
     c) Rep. Connie Mack (R-FL)
     d) Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV)

2. How many senators in U.S. history have been the children of former senators? (We'll take a number within 5 of the actual number)

3. Name the members of Congress who were born in the following countries:

    a) Pakistan
    b) Japan
    c) The Netherlands

4. A total of 5 states have never sent a woman to Congress. Name 2 of those states.

5. After leaving Congress, ex-Rep. Gary Condit (D-CA) moved to AZ and opened 2 food franchises with his wife and children. What franchise did he purchase?

Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) is in grave danger of becoming the first incumbent to fall victim to an angry electorate when delegates head to a party convention next week.

A new survey of delegates to the state party convention, slated for May 8, shows Bennett trailing badly. Bennett would score just 16% of the vote, far behind attorney Mike Lee's (R) 37% and a few points behind business consultant Tim Bridgewater's (R) 20%.

Businesswoman Cherilyn Eagar (R) would take 11%, while 1% would vote for ex-Rep. Merrill Cook (R). Only 15% of delegates remain undecided, according to the Mason-Dixon survey conducted between April 22-25 for the Salt Lake Tribune. The poll tested 400 of the approximately 3.5K convention delegates.

Any candidate who receives 60% of the vote for a given office officially receives the party's nomination. If one candidate does not get 60% in a head-to-head runoff in the final round of voting, the top 2 finishers head to a primary, which would be held June 22.

Even if Bennett beats Bridgewater, he would fall well short of the votes necessary to beat Lee in a second round of voting. In a head-to-head matchup between the 3-term senator and the UT attorney, Lee would win 51% to Bennett's 18%, while 31% of delegates remain undecided.

If Bennett does not make it to the final round, or his eventual opponent receives 60% in the final round, Bennett would have no way to run for the GOP nomination. In fact, he may have no way to run in Nov., short of a write-in campaign; the deadline to file as an independent candidate passed in March.

GOP activists have grown steadily angrier at Bennett over the last several years. He has supported controversial earmarks, voted in favor of some bailout legislation and worked with Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) to come up with a bipartisan health care bill that included an individual mandate, a position anathema to many conservatives.

Bennett's approval rating among convention delegates shows he has little room to maneuver. Just 28% of delegates view Bennett favorably, while 61% see him in an unfavorable light, according to the survey. Bridgewater is seen favorably by 71% of delegates, while Lee has a positive image in 68% of delegates' minds.

Rep. Jason Chaffetz (R-UT) has asked the RNC to abandon a fundraising practice that looks like official U.S. Census mail, just weeks after a measure banning the practice became law.

In a letter sent Tuesday, Chaffetz, a freshman GOPer, said he is concerned recent RNC mailings violate both the letter and the spirit of the law, which he sponsored and which passed both chambers unanimously.

The measure was aimed at ending the practice of allowing fundraising letters to look like Census documents, a move that boosts open and return rates among those who receive the mailings. It's a popular technique among GOP fundraisers, one the RNC has used for years.

But even after the measure was passed, voters in TX and elsewhere continued receiving forms that mentioned the Census and appeared to be official government documents.

"The clear intent of Congress in passing the Act was to prevent confusion on the part of citizens who receive mailings invoking or referring to the Census during this important year in which the official Census is taken," Chaffetz wrote to RNC chairman Michael Steele. "The fundraising letter evaded that intended purpose in a manner I believe is unacceptable."

"Simply put, the RNC should not invoke the official U.S. Census as a means to confuse and deceive recipients of the mailer into opening it, thinking they are complying with their civic duty," Chaffetz continued. "While I can appreciate the efforts you and your colleagues at the RNC are making to assist qualified Republican candidates to gain office in this election year, we should not resort to tactics that reflect negatively on our party's character, or on the public offices we seek."

Chaffetz is a junior member of the House Oversight and Government Reform Committee. He is the ranking member of the Federal Workforce, Postal Service and DC subcommittee.

In response to the new RNC mailer, Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA), the ranking GOPer on the full committee, introduced a bill on Tuesday to close the loophole that he says made the RNC mailer legal.

"The RNC's mailings plainly violate the spirit and intent of the law," Issa said in a statement. "Deceptive mailings must not be allowed to interfere with the constitutionally mandated Census."

"We were well within the new statute, as the committee will be of any further legislation on this issue," said Doug Heye, the RNC's communications director. "Any confusion is the result of vague or unclear legislative language. If the Democrats have this much trouble writing a relatively simple bill, how can they credibly write a coherent bill on health care, financial regulatory reform or jobs creation that run hundreds of pages?"

Update: This post was updated with news of Issa's bill.

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is contemplating his political future this week as he decides whether to run for Sen. George LeMieux's (R) seat as an independent. But he also should be contemplating just how much it's going to cost him.

Crist has benefitted from several strong fundraising quarters, but conservative bloggers and activists have vowed to make a potential independent bid hurt his bank account. And he should take note: Those same activists helped cost Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) more than $1M after his own defection last year.

When Specter bolted, he told donors they could have their money back if they wanted. And the conservative Club for Growth took him up on the offer. The Club received permission from the FEC to help donors contact the campaign and ask for donations to be returned.

A review of FEC reports filed over the last year shows Specter gave $224K back during the second quarter, when he made his party switch, and $602K back during the fourth quarter, when the Club mailed his donors informing them of the policy. All told, Specter has returned $1.031M so far this election cycle.

On Tuesday, the Club said it would pursue the same program if Crist were to leave the GOP. "If and when Charlie Crist leaves the Republican Party, we will contact his contributors and help them make formal refund requests to his campaign," Club pres. Chris Chocola said in a statement.

It's impossible to tell just how many individual donations Crist would lose if he pulls the switch, but he's certain to receive requests from DC GOPers, who wrote checks from their PACs. So far, the NRSC, NRSC chair John Cornyn, Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell and a host of others have contributed, either directly or through their PACs, a total of $87K; Crist would almost certainly return those funds.

Most of the rest of the PAC contributions Crist has received come from groups that donate to both parties, including corporations like AT&T, Exxon Mobile and Marriott. It is unlikely those PACs would ask for their money back.

The real dent in Crist's bank account will come from individuals who want their checks returned. Crist has received $9.6M in individual donations from 5,658 contributors, and he has $7.6M left in the bank, as of his latest fundraising report. If those contributors ask for their money back en masse, Crist's bid to save his political life could begin in dire financial straits.

The Hotline's Amy Walter writes:

In a wave election, as this one is shaping up to be, candidate quality is usually less important than the political environment and the color of one's jersey (red or blue). In 2006, there were plenty of GOP candidates who ran well-funded, smart campaigns and lost, while lots of weak Democrats went on to victory.

But that doesn't mean that candidates don't matter at all. In fact, there are two key Senate races where candidate quality is shaping up to be the issue.

The best example of this is Nevada. On paper, it's really hard to see how Majority Leader Harry Reid wins this thing, especially when that paper happens to have poll numbers written on it. We've yet to see any polling that shows Reid within spitting range of 50 percent. He's stuck somewhere between the high 30s and low 40s. In fact, the question isn't so much how good does Reid need to be to win, but how bad does the Republican need to be to lose it? Is it enough to be just "bumbling bad," or are we talking really, really bad, like criminally indicted bad?

Watching GOP frontrunner Sue Lowden stumble her way through a local TV interview where she discussed the possibility of "bartering" for health care, I was reminded of a key 2006 House contest in New Mexico. All signs were pointing to a loss for Republican incumbent Heather Wilson. But her Democratic opponent, Patsy Madrid, already not particularly popular or polished, completely flopped on a televised debate. The flop made it to a TV ad. And, in the end, Wilson pulled out an 861-vote victory.

...

Then there's Illinois, where Democrats have long held that President Obama's popularity in such a dark blue state would boost even the weakest Democratic nominee. Now, however, even if Obama's popularity is off the charts, it's not going to be able to rescue 34-year old state Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias, whose family bank was just taken over by the FDIC.

Giannoulias tried to contain the damage after the weekend fallout, releasing a 60-second ad just three days after the bank's collapse. Still, his explanation that the family bank, like so many other small businesses around the country, was simply a victim of the bad economy only works when: 1) your bank didn't engage in risky subprime loans; and 2) your bank didn't loan money to guys with names like Rezko, "Jaws" and "Half Dollar."

Giannoulias' GOP opponent, Rep. Mark Kirk, is not likely to boast about being a member of Congress, but in a contest of which moniker is more unpopular this year -- failed banker or D.C. insider -- I'm guessing that the banker wins. Especially when that banker also happens to be responsible for the state's finances.

Read the full column here.

Ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) has questions about a harsh immigration law passed in AZ even though he said it speaks to a general public anger, he said in a statement released Tuesday.

In the release, Rubio acknowledges anger over the current immigration system, but, he says, the bill could put law enforcement officials in a bad position.

"States certainly have the right to enact policies to protect their citizens, but Arizona's policy shows the difficulty and limitations of states trying to act piecemeal to solve what is a serious federal problem. From what I have read in news reports, I do have concerns about this legislation," Rubio said in the statement.

"While I don't believe Arizona's policy was based on anything other than trying to get a handle on our broken borders, I think aspects of the law, especially that dealing with 'reasonable suspicion,' are going to put our law enforcement officers in an incredibly difficult position. It could also unreasonably single out people who are here legally, including many American citizens," he added. "Throughout American history and throughout this administration we have seen that when government is given an inch it takes a mile."

Rubio urged the admin to use the AZ law as the impetus to send help to border areas, rather than to pass legislation granting any form of amnesty, though no such discussions are seriously on the table. Pres. Obama and DHS Sec. Janet Napolitano, the former AZ GOV, have both condemned the bill.

Rubio's full statement, after the jump. For a look at how other Senate candidates are approaching the new AZ law, check with Hotline OnCall later this afternoon.

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) has powerful friends, and he's using them to help him get through next month's Dem primary -- the first he will face as a Dem.

In a new email to supporters who have signed up for his vaunted email list, Pres. Obama is soliciting support for Specter's primary campaign, touting Specter's vote for the stimulus package, health care reform and financial regulatory reform.

Specter is "in a tight race for the Democratic nomination for Senate, and the primary is coming up soon on May 18th," the email from Obama says. "Vice President Biden and I need him in Washington, fighting alongside us."

The email asks for volunteers to help in advance of Specter's impending primary against Rep. Joe Sestak (D).

It is the latest in a series of actions the admin has taken on Specter's behalf, including a fundraiser with Obama last year and a visit from Biden just last week. Specter asked for, and received, Obama's endorsement as part of his move -- a year ago tomorrow -- to leave the GOP and become a Dem.

In fact, Obama has done more for Specter than virtually any other sitting senator, save Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid. Obama has held fundraisers for Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and will return for an additional event next month, while Biden was dispatched to Little Rock for a fundraiser with Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) earlier this year.

Specter and Sestak are both on the air in the primary's waning weeks. Specter has launched a round of positive ads focusing on his record of bringing federal dollars back to PA, as well as another spot hitting Sestak for Sestak's attendance record in Congress. Sestak is up with his own bio spot showcasing his tenure in the Navy.

The winner of the May 18 primary will take on ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R) in the fall.

Read Obama's full email to OFA supporters after the jump.

The RGA is taking the threat of an independent candidate seriously, running $1M in early ads blasting MA Treas. Tim Cahill for his record as the steward of state's financial health.

In a new radio and TV ad campaign, the RGA attacks Cahill for spending money on staff bonuses and office redecoration during his time both in the treasurer's office and at the state lottery commission.

"Beacon Hill's a mess. Tim Cahill's making it worse," a narrator in the TV ad says. "With Cahill running the lottery, costs have skyrocketed and he spent a million bucks on office renovations."

In going after Cahill, the RGA is repeating a strategy that worked in '09. Last year, then-NJ Gov. Jon Corzine (D) tried to elevate independent candidate Chris Daggett in hopes of stealing votes from the GOP nominee. The RGA ran ads claiming a vote for Daggett was a vote for Corzine, and now-Gov. Chris Christie (R) won a close election.

Now, polls show Gov. Deval Patrick (D) in a situation similar to Corzine's. Patrick is unpopular, and voters blame him for the state's weak economic position. Were he running against a GOPer alone, Patrick's path to victory would be hard to define.

But Patrick has Cahill in the race, and though it means another contender assaulting his record, it also means Cahill saps much of the anti-Patrick vote. The latest survey, conducted by Western New England College, showed Patrick winning with 34%, followed by Cahill and Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO Charlie Baker (R) at 29% and 27%, respectively.

As Baker appeals to independent voters who might otherwise lean toward Dems, Cahill has tried to carve out his niche on the right -- and he's proven successful enough at doing so the RGA is now worried about a split vote. And they get a shot in at Patrick along the way. "Massachusetts has already lost 4 years. We can't afford to lose any more," both ads say.

The spots are the RGA's first ads in MA, and a source with knowledge of the ad buy tells Hotline OnCall the RGA has reserved $1M in TV and radio time. The committee has already run TV ads hitting Dem contenders in FL and CA.

After the jump, check out the RGA's first ads against Cahill.

Talk to any Dem strategist and you'll hear a common refrain: GOPers will leave seats on the table because competitive primaries will sap eventual nominees of money and hinder their ability to bring together a winning coalition. GOPers believe the same about several Dem primaries, too.

But the impact primaries have can be overblown. Plenty of incumbent members of Congress won competitive primaries and then beat their rivals, giving the argument a hint of wishful thinking.

Still, there are times and places where primaries matter. Here's a look at 6 races that might hinge on the outcome of an intra-party feud:

VA 05: When it comes to profiling incumbents who are going to lose in a GOP wave, no one gets more attention than Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA). The only trouble is, Perriello is by no means a sure bet for a premature retirement. He's got boatloads of cash and he works his district well. But GOPers have a good shot at the seat; it leans GOP, and without surge voters who came out in '08, Perriello is seriously vulnerable.

Perhaps Perriello's best asset is the competitive GOP primary in the district. State Sen. Robert Hurt (R) is the GOP's preferred candidate, but he faces Tea Party activists still angry over his '05 vote to raise some VA taxes. Hurt is the favorite in the primary, though real estate developer Jim McKelvey (R) has more money in the bank, thanks to a big loan he's given his campaign. If Hurt, or whichever candidate becomes the nominee, has no money left after the June 8 primary, Perriello will have a big advantage this fall.

KY SEN: It's rare that both parties face competitive primaries for what can only be described as a toss-up seat. But when Sen. Jim Bunning (R) announced his retirement, that's just what the Bluegrass State got. And in both cases, the anti-establishment candidate is leading the establishment favorite.

On the GOP side, Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) has support from Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell and most of the KY GOP establishment. But he trails ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R), who has Bunning's support and is embracing the populist mantle. GOPers who back Grayson say Paul is too far out of the mainstream, and that he would give Dems a better-than-even shot at winning the seat.

But Dems have problems of their own. LG Daniel Mongiardo (D) leads in recent polls, but he has little money and less institutional support than AG Jack Conway (D). Mongiardo, though, hails from Coal Country, and he has a following outside Conway's Louisville base. Dem strategists think Mongiardo is the weaker general election candidate, though in a Dem primary he's the man to beat.

"World News" led with a class action lawsuit against Walmart. "Evening News" led with the fight over financial regulation. "Nightly News" led with the oil rig disaster in the Gulf of Mexico.

Ex-IL Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) went "On the Record" 4/26 p.m.

Blagojevich, on wanting to subpoena Pres. Obama: "I think President Obama can help prove my innocence. ... Let me say this, before anybody says I'm interested in bringing everybody down with me. What's completely not the case. I've done nothing wrong. What I'm interested in is for the whole truth to come out that neither did I do anything wrong, President Obama didn't do anything wrong, the senators that I talked to didn't do anything wrong either. And so they should come into court and tell the truth as they know it."

FNC's Van Susteren: "The judge is going to say how is President Obama going to help your case? He is going to ask that flat out to your lawyer. Tell me how."

Blagojevich: "A lot of evidence and information that I'm prohibited by court order because it is under seal to tell you. So there's relevance connected to that."

After the jump, more from Blagojevich and updates on two Senate races.

Good Tuesday morning. Remember when the Washington Capitals kept winning games? We'd sure like to see a repeat, at least in game 7 of what's been a frustrating and nail-biting series.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

PRES. OBAMA: Obama departs on a 2-day swing through the Midwest to sell financial regulatory reform, making stops today in Quincy, IL, and Mt. Pleasant and Ottumwa, IA, before overnighting in Des Moines. It's part of an effort to persuade voters that Dems are on Main Street's side, something that could prove crucial this Nov. as the economy begins, ever so slowly, to rebound.

Meanwhile, in DC, Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid is approaching the reform package from the other end. After losing a test vote last night, Reid plans to force repeated votes on the bill in order to pressure GOPers into coming around. He'll have to convince one GOPer, along with Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), to vote in favor of debating the legislation.

Polls show the public overwhelmingly supports most provisions of the bill, save a provision to further regulate the derivatives market. And most GOP strategists just want to move past regulatory reform, nervous about what opposing the measure might do to their image. Whether that happens depends on a few moderates flipping their votes under pressure, or on negotiations between Sens. Chris Dodd (D-CT) and Richard Shelby (R-AL) reaching a conclusion that satisfies everyone.

ERSKINE BOWLES AND ALAN SIMPSON: Before Obama heads to the Midwest, he'll meet with Bowles, the former WH CoS, and Simpson, the longtime GOP senator from WY. The 2 will chair the National Commission on Fiscal Responsibility and Reform, which meets for the first time today at the WH. Their aim is to balance the budget, excluding interest payments on the national debt, within 5 years.

And their task is nearly impossible. The commission will need support from 14 of the 18 members to report a recommendation, one that will rely heavily either on additional taxes or on cuts to popular programs. Thanks to the way the commission was set up, Congress will be able to slice and dice whatever proposal they recommend, meaning the final product may not look anything like what's actually been negotiated.

Two sources say the DSCC has been calling around to Ohio TV stations asking for air time in advance of the May 4 primary between Sec/State Jennifer Brunner and LG Lee Fisher.

According to Brunner, who spoke with Hotline OnCall late last year, DSCC Chair Bob Menendez told her he would spend money against a primary candidate with little campaign cash. Menendez has not been shy about his support for Fisher over Brunner.

Fisher has an ad airing in some OH markets but is running low on cash. While favored, he's still running neck-and-neck with Brunner, who's kept the contest more competitive than Beltway strategists would like.

While Brunner does not have backing from EMILY's List, she's campaigning heavily on OH's history of never electing a woman to a SEN or GOV seat, hoping to rally the support of female voters. But Fisher's team believes the establishment -- both inside OH and in DC -- will rally to his cause and help put him over the top. It appears that at least the latter may come to fruition.

This Thursday marks The Hotline's second annual Political Pursuit, an event that brings out the best and the brightest political trivia minds. To get our competitors -- including Sens. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Roger Wicker (R-MS) and Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI), ex-Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA), The Fix Chris Cillizza, News Hour anchor Judy Woodruff and ex-Hotliner Chuck Todd -- up to form, we'll post some of our trivia questions from last year.

Our first reader to answer at least 4 of today's 5 questions correctly gets a special shout-out in tomorrow's Starting Lineup. Email us your answers for a chance to win.

1. Several current members of Congress have a parent who also served, but only one belongs to a different party from his parent. Who is it?

2. Name the 3 Democrats in the House who were first elected in '74, the year Dems won 49 seats in Watergate's wake.

3. John McCain barely won the state of MO in '08, representing only the second time since 1904 that the state failed to vote for the winning WH candidate. Who was the last candidate to win the Show-Me State without winning the WH?

4. Harry Truman, was FDR's vice president when he died, but can you name either of FDR's other 2 veeps?

5. Since Eisenhower, anyone who won the WH had usually sought a term in Congress beforehand. Which of the 9 presidents since Ike did not run for Congress, and which ran but lost?

Bonus: In '84, a current senator lost a primary for the seat he holds today. Who's the lucky incumbent?

Ex-NY Gov. George Pataki (R) is helping out a friend by appearing at a fundraiser in NYC tonight for businessman Bill Binnie (R), an emerging contender in the race to replace retiring Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH).

Binnie mgr. Bryan Lanza tells Hotline OnCall that Pataki will be the guest of honor at the fundraiser, separate from his capacity as chair of his recently launched Revere America group. Lanza said that the Binnie camp expects to rake in a 6-figure sum from the fundraiser, adding that in May, Pataki will hold a fundraiser for Binnie for which Pataki will reach out to his own donors.

While he passed on a SEN bid in NY, Pataki has not ruled out a WH '12 bid, and continues to stay on the national radar. His Revere America group recently launched a cable TV ad urging a repeal and replacement of the national health care law.

Pataki has been working to appeal to conservatives as he pushes for a health care repeal. But in supporting Binnie, who has cast himself in a more moderate light while 2 of his opponents try to out-conservative each other, it appears that Pataki is still very much interested in generating a broad network of GOP support -- another sign that a '12 run may be in the offing.

During the 2 Dem debates in AR this weekend featuring Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) and LG Bill Halter (D), both managed to find holes in their opponent's armor on issues key to their campaigns.

Halter has hit Lincoln hard on financial reform, the same week she successfully guided a derivatives regulation bill through the Senate Agriculture Committee, a measure acclaimed by both Dem senators and rank-and-file party members. Halter did not take any shots at the bill itself during the second debate Saturday, but he cast Lincoln as a product of DC, where "you pat yourself on the back for cleaning up a mess you helped to create."

Specifically, he referred to her '99 vote in favor of the Gramm-Leach-Bliley bill, which repealed parts of the Glass-Steagall law that prohibited a single corporation from running an insurance company and investment and commercial banks. It passed the Senate 90-8, with only 7 Dems and one GOPer voting against it. At the time, Sen. Byron Dorgan (D-ND) predicted that the bill could lead to "future massive taxpayer bailouts."

Lincoln actually admitted that Congress "could have done better" in '99. "We had no clue those markets had extended to the extent they had. I will take my fair share of the fault in that. What we know now, we have to correct," Lincoln said.

Lincoln, meanwhile, can be expected to press Halter for a firm position on the Employees Free Choice Act, which GOPers -- and Lincoln -- derisively call "card check."

Halter refused in both debates to say how he would have voted on such a bill, dodging the question by saying the bill, a top union priority, is no longer on the table. Lincoln offered a simple, easy-to-understand stance ("I don't support card check"), which she could use to contrast with Halter's perceived waffling.

Much of Halter's support and funding comes from labor unions, which strongly support EFCA. For him to decry their choice piece of legislation could be deemed as anathema to their cause. However, AR is a right-to-work state with the second lowest rate (4.2%) of union membership in the country. For Halter, treading the line between his most fervent supporters and the composition of the AR electorate is a tightrope he may be walking for the rest of the primary season and beyond.

A national Tea Party group will embark upon its first foray into GOP primary politics this week when it launches a paid TV ad on behalf of a conservative contender.

The group, Tea Party Express, will air its first ads on behalf of ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) beginning this week, a spokesman tells Hotline OnCall, praising her as the only true conservative candidate in the field.

Tea Party Express has not purchased the ad time yet, but they spent several thousand dollars on production costs, according to reports filed with the FEC. So far, Tea Party Express' political wing, Our Country Deserves Better PAC, has spent $12K backing Angle.

She will need the help in advance of the Silver State's June 8 primary. Angle is running well behind ex-NV GOP chair/ex-state Sen. Sue Lowden (R) and businessman Danny Tarkanian (R) in her bid for the GOP nomination against Sen. Harry Reid (D). Lowden, Tarkanian and investment banker John Chachas (R) are all better-funded than Angle.

But Angle, who narrowly lost a House primary in '06 to Rep. Dean Heller (R), has a following among the conservative base. She likely won't have the money to compete toe-to-toe with her rivals, but she has fans and supporters the others don't have.

NV is the first race in which the PAC has gotten involved in a GOP primary, though spokesman Levi Russell says the group is contemplating jumping in to more races. During a protest rally in DC earlier this month, the group spotlighted Sens. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and Arlen Specter (D-PA), along with Reid, as their top targets during the midterms.

Russell said the group hasn't made a decision about whether to get involved in other primaries -- both Lincoln and Boxer will face the winner of competitive GOP contests.

So far, the PAC has weighed in to help elect Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA), spending almost $350K on his behalf. The group also spent $66K on ads aimed at softening Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) after he voted in favor of health care legislation. Spokespeople for the Tea Party group said they were willing to spend much more to defeat Stupak; instead, Stupak announced he would retire at the end of this term.

Our Country Deserves Better has also spent money to discredit businessman Scott Ashjian, a third-party candidate running under the Tea Party banner in NV. Some GOPers worry that Ashjian could eventually sap votes from a GOP nominee, but early polls have showed Ashjian barely registering.

After the jump, the Tea Party's first ad backing Angle, set to run later this week.

Voters back financial regulatory reform by wide margins, according to a new national poll released as a Senate version is scheduled for a key test vote this afternoon.

A total of 65% said they favor stricter regulations on banks and other financial institutions, while 63% say they want stricter regulations on the way Wall Street firms conduct business, according to half-samples of a new Washington Post/ABC News poll.

Dems overwhelmingly favor tougher rules. GOPers narrowly oppose stricter regulations on banks, by a 43%-49% margin, but they support tougher rules governing how Wall Street conducts business, by a 53%-41% spread. Among independent voters, 69% favor stricter regulations on banks and financial institutions, and 61% favor more regulations on Wall Street.

What's more, Americans largely support key elements of the bill likely to hit the floor today, the poll shows. A majority, 53%, say they favor an industry-funded liquidation fund, while 42% oppose such a fund. GOPers have cast the fund as a permanent source for future bailouts as they argue against the legislation.

A larger 59% say they support more federal oversight for practices relating to loans, mortgages and credit cards, the poll found. Just 38% oppose more oversight. Americans are more closely divided over more regulation for derivatives, with 43% favoring further scrutiny and 41% opposing it.

But while Pres. Obama has been an ardent supporter of more regulation, he isn't getting high marks for his handling of the issue. Just 48% say they approve of Obama's handling of financial regulation, while an equal 48% say they disapprove.

Those are better marks than House GOPers get -- only 35% of Americans say they trust the GOP to better handle financial regulation, while 52% pick the president.

The poll surveyed 1,001 adults between April 22 and 25, for a margin of error of +/- 3%. The margin of error for half-samples is approximately +/- 4.4%.

The National Rifle Association has a long memory, and it's using its vaunted mailing list to remind IN voters that a top GOP recruit doesn't have a pure record on gun rights issues.

The NRA has sent mailers to IN voters blasting ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R), the NRSC's favored candidate in the race to replace retiring Sen. Evan Bayh (D-IN), according to filings made over the weekend with the FEC.

During his first stint in Congress, Coats was one of 15 GOPers who voted for the Brady bill, a measure that instituted federal background checks for most gun purchases. The bill was part of Pres. Bill Clinton's anti-crime package.

Coats also voted for Clinton's larger anti-crime bill in '94. That bill included provisions banning some semi-automatic weapons; Coats voted for the bill before it went to conference committee, but then opposed it during final passage.

In a low-turnout, low-budget primary election, the NRA's involvement could prove critical. The group isn't putting a lot of money into hitting Coats -- they've spent just $18K so far, according to the filings -- but Coats and his 2 main rivals don't have a lot of money to put into the race.

Coats had just $291K in the bank as of April 14. Both ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R) and state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (R) have less than $100K in the bank. The NRA has not endorsed Hostettler or Stutzman, but the postcard points out that Hostettler had an "A" ranking during his time in Congress, while Stutzman's state Senate career earns him an "A+" ranking.

The group is sending out postcards on behalf of Reps. Mark Souder (R) and Dan Burton (R), both of whom face competitive primaries. GOP strategists who back Coats aren't worried; they say the NRA is spending enough to get Coats' attention, but not enough to seriously damage his candidacy. Coats, too, is reasserting his Second Amendment bona fides.

"Dan Coats supports preserving our Second Amendment freedoms and scored a 100% on the 2010 NRA Questionnaire," said Pete Seat, Coats' spokesman. "Like his fellow Hoosiers, Dan is focused on talking about the issues of today -- and has deep concerns about the Obama administration's attempts to infringe upon our liberties, including our Second Amendment rights."

Then again, some GOPers are worried about what the NRA will do in Nov., especially if Coats, as expected, clinches the GOP nomination. The postcard notes Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D) has a "perfect" pro-gun record, and the NRA backed Ellsworth during his '08 campaign.

IL Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) is using the first ad of his general election campaign to explain his involvement in a family bank, a career that has become a central hurdle in his bid to fill Pres. Obama's old SEN seat.

Giannoulias served as a top loan officer at Broadway Bank, his family's business, before running for public office. But the institution overextended itself, and after failing to meet a government-imposed deadline on Friday, the FDIC seized Broadway Bank and sold it to MB Financial Bank of Chicago.

Top DC Dems have long been concerned about Giannoulias' ties to the bank, especially as it appeared headed for disaster. In a bad economic climate, when anger over bank bailouts is reaching a crescendo, the fact that a company owned by Giannoulias' family cost the Deposite Insurance Fund about $394M, according to the FDIC, hands GOPers a politically potent issue.

In his first spot of the general election contest, Giannoulias tries to turn the failure on its head by connecting with average voters.

"My father started this business 30 years ago. It's helped thousands of people achieve the American dream, people who couldn't go to the big banks," Giannoulias says in the ad. "I was very proud to be a part of it, and when I left 4 years ago, it was in good shape."

"Family businesses are dealing with challenges they never would have forseen. We've seen family businesses go under on every block, on every corner," Giannoulias adds.

He uses the spot to attack Rep. Mark Kirk (R), his GOP rival, for voting against an extension of unemployment benefits and for voting for GOP policies over the last decade. But it's still a defensive spot in which Giannoulias has to explain away the liability, rather than advancing his own agenda.

And in politics, the old maxim goes, when you're explaining, you're losing.

Check out Giannoulias' first ad, after the jump.

Good Monday morning. How do we get our bosses to approve of the oil paintings we commissioned? We'll just talk to our old pals at the FL GOP and figure out how they did it.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make news this week in politics:

SENATE GOPERS: Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid will call a test vote today that would bring a financial regulatory reform bill to the floor for debate. And Senate GOPers were defiant on the Sunday talk shows, insisting they wouldn't give Dems the votes they need to proceed unless the majority dropped certain provisions from the oversight legislation.

Both parties find themselves in a tricky situation as regulatory reform takes center stage. Dems, eager to keep up their momentum after passing health care last month, have hinted they are willing to lose the vote on the motion to proceed in order to make the political point that GOPers will oppose anything. GOPers are trying not to appear to favor Wall Street over Main Street as they fight against provisions they see as encouraging future bailouts.

Dems need just a single GOP vote to move legislation forward, and even their key targets are skeptical. Treasury Sec. Tim Geithner met with several GOPers last week, but even those members said they weren't willing to go along with Dems. "I hope that Senator Reid abandons his plan to force a premature cloture vote on Monday," Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) said in a statement over the weekend.

PRES. OBAMA: After a quick weekend getaway in NC, Obama is back to the grind today. He has urged Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), who is still holding talks with Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL) over regulatory reform legislation, not to capitulate to GOP demands to weaken the bill, according to a report on the Huffington Post.

GOPers will say it is the latest example of Obama's false overtures to bipartisanship -- publicly pushing for GOP support while privately advocating for a single-party solution. And the stand does have political benefits: With Tea Party activists angry over bank bailouts and an economic crash traced back to Wall Street, financial regulatory reform could prove a valuable wedge between activists and the party apparatus in DC.

Meanwhile, Obama is kicking off his party's election campaign today with a web video sent to activists who backed his '08 campaign. "I need your help once more," Obama tells activists. "It will be up to each of you to make sure that the young people, African Americans, Latinos and women who powered our victory in 2008 will stand together once again."

State House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) won the DFL endorsement late Saturday, giving her the party's backing as she continues her push to become the state's first female gov.

DFLers endorsed Kelliher at their convention in Duluth, at which over 1,300 delegates gathered to choose their preferred GOV candidate from the crowded DFL field. Kelliher clinched the endorsement after several rounds of balloting yielded an expected showdown between the state House Speaker and Minneapolis Mayor R.T. Rybak (D). A Rybak concession left Kelliher as the last candidate standing late in the evening.

While the endorsement is powerful and influential, and will no doubt give Kelliher a surge of momentum, it doesn't guarantee a victory in what will be a contested Aug. 10 primary. Twice in the last 7 GOV election cycles, a DFL candidate who failed to get the endorsement went on to win the primary.

Atty/ex-state House Min. Leader Matt Entenza (D), who removed himself from the endorsement competition earlier Saturday, will continue on into the primary. And he has already started his post-convention push, by releasing a TV spot that will launch next week.

Also joining Kelliher in the primary will be ex-Sen. Mark Dayton (D). Dayton didn't compete for the DFL endorsement, though he has been campaigning across the state. Ramsey Co. Atty Susan Gaertner (D) will also be in the mix.

MN GOPers will gather next weekend in Minneapolis to decide on their endorsement. The clear front-runners in that race are state Rep./ex-state House Min Leader Marty Seifert (R) and state Rep. Tom Emmer (R).

If '00 CA SEN nominee/ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R) edges out ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) in the CA SEN race, he may have his ballot designation to thank.

A Capitol Weekly/Probolsky Research Company poll conducted April 10-13 shows Campbell sporting a new lead in a 3-way race against Fiorina and Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R). In the survey, which had a margin of error of +/- 5.6%, Campbell took 31% to Fiorina's 17% and DeVore's 15%. 35% of respondents said they were undecided.

While the poll surveyed a relatively small pool of 304 likely GOP primary voters, it included an often overlooked factor on primary day: the ballot designations that will appear before each candidate's name on the ballot.

Fiorina is described as "Business Executive." DeVore is "Assemblyman/Military Reservist." And Campbell -- despite his five terms in Congress and his tenure as Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger's (R) state finance director -- is listed as "Economist/Business Educator."

If a large portion of those who described themselves as undecided have yet to make up their minds before the June 8 primary, those ballot designations could play a key role.

The flexibility [pdf] of CA's ballot regulations means that many candidates take liberties in describing their occupations. Candidates may use up to three words in their ballot designation; they may also opt for no designation at all. There's also no requirement for minimum income from a listed "occupation." All proposals must be approved by the CA sec/state.

In CA-19, which sits in the rural San Joaquin Valley, ex-CA 11 Rep. Richard Pombo (R) and state Sen. Jeff Denham (R) provide an example of candidates using ballot designations to their advantage: Pombo lists himself as "rancher" and Denham describes himself as "farmer," even though neither man's primary occupation is agriculture-related.

In the PA-12 special election contest, ex-Murtha staffer Mark Critz (D) benefited financially from two fundraisers this past week with Speaker Nancy Pelosi and VP Joe Biden, but the NRCC hopes to make him pay for those appearances.

The committee began airing a new TV ad against Critz on Friday, accusing him of raising "big money from the same liberals pushing the cap-and-trade plan" that will hurt the coal industry and destroy jobs. The CD is home to several large mines, and businessman Tim Burns (R) and GOPers have sought to tie Critz to Murtha's support of the bill.

But there's one problem: Critz says he opposes it.

In fact, Critz's stated positions on abortion and guns (he says he's pro-life and pro-gun), health care (he's against the new law) and cap-and-trade make him a difficult target.

But GOPers have found a perfect fall guy -- or in this case, woman -- for Critz, and that's the unpopular Pelosi. In a recent survey [pdf] conducted for the American Action Network, which is headed by ex-MN Sen. Norm Coleman (R), Critz held a slim 40-39% edge over Burns. But 76% of voters rate Pelosi's job as either fair or poor. While GOPers almost universally disapprove of her job performance (92% rate her fairly or poorly), so do nearly 90% of indies and two-thirds of Dems.

Ditto for Pres. Obama, who earns just a 31% "excellent" or "good" job approval.

With those kinds of numbers, it's a wonder that Critz is even able to hold on. He's trying to establish himself as the rightful successor to Murtha, and in new TV ads highlights his past ties to his legendary boss.

But with less than a month until the May 18 election, get used to GOP ads highlighting the very unpopular DC Dem leadership. And with numbers like Pelosi's and Obama's, that doesn't seem like such a bad idea.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) and LG Bill Halter (D) took rhetorical jabs at each other during a debate Friday p.m., but neither tilled new ground that deviated much from their own well-worn talking points.

Halter went on offense first against Lincoln during a question about the Employee Free Choice Act, which is often referred to as "card check." He mentioned that she first sponsored EFCA, then opposed it and then "signaled" to Senate leadership that she would filibuster such a bill. Halter stressed that he would support what he's heard about a compromise unionization bill being worked on by Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR) and that the original EFCA draft is a non-starter even among union leadership now.

That set up Lincoln for an easy body blow on Halter, saying, that she appreciated he "has seen that compromise because most senators haven't seen that compromise." She later added bluntly, "I don't support card check," saying that it "creates unfortunate divisions" though she did not offer specific details. Instead, Lincoln said more focus should be paid to the economy.

Halter distinguished himself from Lincoln in a different way on the next question about judicial nominees, though only those who have paid significant attention to the campaign to date would have detected what Halter wanted to accomplish.

After Lincoln said she looks at judges in a "holistic way," and that she does not want to support a "judicial activist," she explained her voting philosophy. "... I didn't look (at confirmation) based on a political aspect," said Lincoln.

Halter did not disagree with her Lincoln, but instead took a veiled swipe at Lincoln. "We should make sure they represent the broad diversity of Arkansas and you can count on me to do that.," said Halter.

Repeatedly during the campaign, Halter has hit Lincoln for not recommending blacks for judicial appointments during her tenure in office. He did not mention Lincoln or her record directly, but clearly intended to present himself as someone who would support nominees that are "representative broadly of Arkansas and its people."

Lincoln referenced bipartisanship and fending off attacks from "both extremes" as she painted herself as a pragmatic centrist. Halter said at one point that he has some "conservative" views and some "moderate" ones too, though he omitted any use of the word "liberal", instead opting to say that "it's hard to put one-word labels on folks."

The Hotline staff is learning something new every day. With 6 1/2 months to go before Election Day, here's what we picked up this week:

Money is still a problem for GOPers, but it's not as bad as it looks. At the moment, for example, the DCCC has a $16M cash on hand advantage over the NRCC. At this point in the '08 cycle, the DCCC held a $37M cash advantage. So the GOP will have less money to take advantage of opportunities, but Dems will have less to defend their incumbents. In the wake of Citizens United, the RNC and DNC may matter less. Thanks to the bad economy, so do the House committees.

He's only in the Senate because FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) appointed him, but Sen. George LeMieux (R-FL) is clearly looking ahead to the '12 election. His top advisors expect he will endorse ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) if Crist jumps ship and becomes an indie candidate -- a pretty stunning move given that LeMieux owes Crist his political career.

Sometimes, you can't go home. Dems heavily recruited '08 nominee/ex-Obama appointee Joe Garcia (D) to run in the FL-25 open seat, but the local AFL-CIO just announced it's getting behind his primary challenger. Meanwhile, Doug Hoffman (R), after coming within 4K votes of winning the '09 NY-23 special election as an indie, is forced to watch while his primary opponent racks up county GOP endorsements. These may not be the homecomings each expected prior to entering their races.

Ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R-IN) may be the front-runner, but state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (R) and bank manager Don Bates (R) won't go quietly into that good night. Coats raised a lousy amount of money last quarter, but his saving grace can also be found in FEC reports: His challengers didn't raise much of anything either.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) perceives ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) to be such a serious threat that immigration is the latest issue on which McCain has tried to move to the right. After backing comprehensive reform a few years ago, he's now hoping no one in the GOP electorate will remember. AZ still has one of the most conservative GOP electorates in the country, and they haven't forgotten all of McCain's snubs over the years.

In what will likely become a focal point for the rest of the AZ GOV race, Gov. Jan Brewer (R) signed into law a controversial state immigration measure earlier this afternoon. The measure "strengthens the laws of our state," Brewer said.

Acknowledging the heat she has been getting from those urging a veto, Brewer said "my decision to sign it was by no means made lightly. ... I firmly believe it represents what's best for Arizona" and pointed out that she would not tolerate racial discrimination.

The legislation has garnered national attention this week, with Pres. Obama weighing in earlier today, calling the bill "misguided."

Brewer came under heavy pressure this week from religious leaders, protestors and Dem lawmakers to veto the bill, though her primary opponents -- Owen "Buzz" Mills (R), Treas. Dean Martin (R) and atty/ex-AZ GOP chair John Munger (R) -- have all been urging her to sign it.

One of the results of Brewer's decision will be the ability to position herself as the candidate in the GOP race with the most tangible influence on the issue -- which will likely help her fend off conservative criticism in the primary.

But Dems are not likely to let this issue go any time soon, and should Brewer advance to the general election, AZ Dems will likely keep the issue out front. And if this week is any indication, national pols won't be afraid to weigh in on the issue, either.

Treas. Alexi Giannoulias' (D) family business, Broadway Bank, was shut down today by the FDIC and sold to MB Financial Bank of Chicago.

The FDIC press release states that in order "to protect the depositors, the FDIC entered into a purchase and assumption agreement" with MB Financial Bank "to assume all of the deposits of Broadway Bank."

In January, the Giannoulias family was given 90 days to raise about $85M in capital funds in order to keep the bank in business. In March, Giannoulias predicted the bank would not be able to survive. The FDIC's seizure and sale today indicates that the family was unable to find the money.

The FDIC estimates that the cost to the Deposit Insurance Fund (DIF) will be about $394M. The DIF is funded not through taxpayers' dollars, but through fees on banks.

The IL SEN race has increasingly focused on Giannoulias' banking troubles, and Giannoulias' camp has readied a messaging strategy in anticipation of today's developments: They're expected to argue that Broadway Bank is yet another victim of the economic downturn, and that the Giannoulias family has struggled alongside other Illinoisans and Americans.

Rep. Mark Kirk (R), whose camp has repeatedly tied Giannoulias to Broadway Bank's troubles, is certain to mention the FDIC seizure frequently going into November.

Dems in DC and IL are worried about Giannoulias' ability to win. The prospects of losing Pres. Obama's old seat are so worrisome that both Sen. Dick Durbin (D-IL) and WH adviser David Axelrod are working closely with the Giannoulias camp in order to find a winning strategy.

Whether the issue remains a central one in the race is yet to be seen, but today is surely not a happy day in the Giannoulias camp. GOPers will have a reason to celebrate this weekend.

Every year, both the DCCC and the NRCC fall head over heels for one of their candidates, touting their prospects regardless of their electoral opportunities. This year, the GOP is all about Stephen Fincher (R), a farmer and gospel singer from Frog Jump, TN, running to replace retiring Rep. John Tanner (D).

Fincher is no slouch. He's already raised more than $1M, and he still has $828K in the bank, according to his most recent FEC reports.

And not only is he a favorite of Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) and other top NRCC honchos, he's going to be a star on a conservative reality TV show as well. RightNetwork.com is set to premier "Running," a look at several candidates taking their first shots at public office, and Fincher will be featured on one episode (For a preview, click here).

Perhaps in preparation for his star turn, Fincher has used some of his huge campaign warchest to make himself a better public speaker. In Feb., Fincher spent $3K at The Buckley School, an SC-based company, for what his campaign called "public speaking consulting."

The Buckley School, run by Reid Buckley, promises to teach students well enough "to win an auditorium of unfriendly faces or to face down Mike Wallace." They promise "tied toungues unknotted, stuffed shirts unstuffed" and "muddled thinking set straight."

Turns out Fincher will need his newfound speaking skills for more than just a web-based reality show, though. Despite the NRCC's best efforts, Fincher still has to face down physician Ron Kirkland (R), who raised an impressive $607K and gave himself another $250K last quarter, and Shelby Co. Commis. George Flinn (R), who has $124K in the bank, in the GOP primary.

Both Kirkland and Flinn will likely point out that the conservative hero Fincher, who has been subject to profiles in virtually every major paper in the country (all mentioning Frog Jump, even though the town is technically unincorporated), has actually backed contenders in both parties in the past. Fincher voted in Dem primaries in '02 and '06, according to his voting records obtained by the Nashville Post.

We're sure Fincher will be able to eloquently defend his votes if and when the rivals get on stage and debate. With his money and institutional support, though, GOP leaders have reason to be excited about his chances.

Dems enjoy the smallest advantage in public party affiliation in 5 years, according to new data from the Gallup poll, demonstrating again the party's troubles as they head into crucial midterm elections.

Just one point separates the 2 parties, according to Gallup's quarterly average -- 46% identify as Dems or say they lean Dem, while 45% call themselves GOPers or GOP leaners. That's the lowest gap between the parties since '05, when the parties were tied.

And while GOPers have been gaining market share among independent voters, Dems have been losing parts of their base. In the last year, the percentages of Dems and Dem leaners have dropped 3 points each, while GOP-leaning independents have increased by 6 points. GOPers and pure independent voters have remained stagnant.

"The six-point rise in Republican support since the first quarter of 2009 is due entirely to a growing proportion of independents who lean to the Republican Party, rather than an increase in the percentage of Americans who identify as Republicans outright," Gallup's Jeffrey Jones wrote in his report.

GOPers hit their trough in '08, when 53% called themselves Dems and just 39% identified with the GOP. Even as the national landscape improved for GOPers, party strategists were nervous about the gap between those who identified with both parties. Favorable ratings for the GOP remained dismal, according to polls.

But now, the Dem Party's favorable ratings have dropped too. Along with that drop, the party's numbers among the electorate have shrunk as well.

The latest Gallup generic ballot average shows both parties losing some ground. This week's polling shows 46% of voters say they would favor the GOP candidate, down from 48%. Just 43% would choose a generic Dem, down a point. It is the fourth straight week that GOPers have been either tied or ahead in the key measure of the electorate's mood.

The first quarter averages in party affiliation are based on 4,095 interviews with national adults conducted between Jan. and March. The margin of error for the accumulated data is +/- 2%.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL), New York Times' David Brooks, CNBC's Erin Burnett, NPR's Michele Norris and Newsweek's Evan Thomas.

Face the Nation hosts NEC dir. Lawrence Summers, New York Times' Thomas Friedman and Vanity Fair's Michael Lewis.

This Week hosts White House Economic Adviser Austan Goolsbee, Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH), Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) , plus our Roundtable with Washington Post's George Will, New York Times' Paul Krugman, Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Cynthia Tucker and ex-FBN's Alexis Glick.

Fox News Sunday hosts ex-Sen. Alan Simpson (R-WY), ex-Clinton CoS Erskine Bowles and Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell. The panel features FNC's Brit Hume, NPR's Mara Liasson, Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts Sen. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), Sen. Robert Menendez (D-NJ) and MI Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

If Dems succeed in passing new campaign finance legislation this year, corporations that decide to run political ads will have to put their chief executives on camera to claim credit.

The new proposal, set to be introduced this spring, would force heads of organizations running ads to say they approve the message, much like candidates must do now. Top contributors could also be forced to stand by the ads, according to a summary of the legislation obtained by Hotline OnCall.

DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen is expected to introduce the bill as a response to Citizens United v. FEC, the SCOTUS decision earlier this year that eliminated some provisions in earlier campaign finance reform legislation. Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) has agreed to sign on to the bill; in the Senate, Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) is still looking for a GOPer to make the legislation bipartisan.

Corporations, unions and other outside groups would have to disclose within 24 hours when they have engaged in campaign-related activity and when they transfer money to other groups intended for use in campaign-related activity. The groups would also have to disclose campaign activity in already-scheduled reports to shareholders.

The legislation would also prohibit spending by any corporation that is more than 20% owned by a foreign entity. Companies that hold contracts with the government for more than $50K any any business that has not paid back TARP funds would also be banned from spending.

Dem members of Congress were upset with the SCOTUS ruling, which struck down prohibitions on corporations and unions using general treasury funds for campaign activity. The decision stemmed from the conservative group Citizens United, which challenged a provision in McCain-Feingold legislation that would have prevented them from airing a documentary about then-WH candidate Hillary Clinton.

Conservatives and campaign finance reform opponents quickly condemned the bill's outline, saying Van Hollen is using the bill to help advance Dem causes in midterm elections.

The outline "is nothing more than a thinly veiled attempt to hijack the political playing field to his advantage on the eve of midterm elections," Chamber of Commerce pres. Thomas Donohue said in a statement released this morning. "It is no secret that Mr. Van Hollen's campaign committee faces significant losses in the House this fall, and nothing in this ill-conceived and one-sided piece of legislation would change that. We will fight any and all attempts to muzzle and or demonize independent voices from the election discussion."

"It's not really surprising that powerful special interests based in Washington would be throwing temper tantrums over efforts to curb their influence and increase transparency so the American people know who is spending money on our elections," fired back Doug Thornell, a spokesman for Van Hollen.

Campaign finance advocates, too, have their doubts about the bill, but because it doesn't go far enough.

For House Min. Leader John Boehner, this week's announcement that he will receive the "Defender of Life" award from a leading anti-abortion group was welcome news. And it revealed the significant changes in abortion conflicts -- as seen notably in the health reform debate -- that have marked one of the nation's hot-button political issues.

Although Boehner has long had a strong pro-life record, abortion has not been an issue on which he has been publicly identified. Even during his 5 years as chairman of what is now the House Education and Labor Committee, which handles some social issues, his legislative focus rarely moved toward abortion.

But he has quietly bolstered the anti-abortion cause -- from his friendship with the late Rep. Henry Hyde (R-IL) to his support in OH for litigation challenging Planned Parenthood. And his up-front role during the health care debate showed advocates on both sides of the issue that he was willing to get out front in opposing government support for abortion at a time when many long-time Dem foes of abortion -- chiefly, Rep. Bart Stupak (D-MI) -- shifted the other way.

"His work with us has been remarkable, but he hasn't gotten much attention for it," said Charmaine Yoest, president and CEO of Americans United for Life, which will award Boehner at a May 5 event in DC. "Part of the reason that we are giving him the award is that we want to draw attention to the fact that he has been very involved."

Yoest was grateful not only for Boehner's strong opposition to Dem leaders' abortion deal with Stupak in the health reform bill, which he included in his "Hell, No" speech prior to the final vote in March, but also for the GOP Leader's willingness to raise the issue during the much-publicized WH health reform summit in Feb. "He was the one who challenged Pres. Obama," Yoest said.

The group's award is named for Hyde, who was long identified as the congressional leader of the anti-abortion cause. Hyde also was the member that Boehner "admired the most of all those he has served with," said a top Boehner aide. Following Hyde's retirement in '06, anti-abortion groups have often gone to Boehner for assistance, and "he's always been honored to do it." The aide added that Boehner is "very humbled to be recognized by those who have devoted their lives to working to protect the rights of the unborn."

In National Review this month, an editor of the conservative publication wrote that Boehner's name had rarely come up in the past among anti-abortion groups.

"For some, a distrust of those in power keeps them from embracing him. For some it's his style, his look and feel," wrote Kathryn Lopez. "But the fact of the matter is that Boehner managed to hold his caucus together on the health-care vote, and on other matters, he has kept the pro-choice crowd and its cronies on the ruling left in check -- as much as a minority leader can." She praised his "principled leadership," and drew the obvious contrast to Speaker Nancy Pelosi's strong support for abortion-rights groups.

With one week until the deadline for FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) to declare an indie bid -- and with tensions within the party approaching fever pitch -- key members of the FL GOP leadership are gathering today in a closed-door session that will likely raise as many questions as it answers.

The showdown began at 10 am, when the 37 members of the FL GOP exec. cmte board convene at Tallahasse's Hotel Duval. The meeting could go as late as 6 pm, according to a party spokesperson.

FL GOP chair/state Sen. John Thrasher has called the meeting in order to brief the exec. board on the current state of the investigation into the party's finances under ex-FL GOP chair Jim Greer, under whose watch a staggering $7M was charged on party-issued credit cards. Greer alone racked up $500K on a FL GOP credit card. At today's meeting, Thrasher plans to release Greer's credit card records, which Thrasher has said contain charges that "concern" him.

Greer -- who as immediate ex-chair is a member of the exec. cmte board -- has RSVPed for the meeting, according to a party spokesperson, but given that he's currently under investigation and has filed suit against the party, he isn't likely to attend.

The spending scandal has a host of FL GOPers wringing their hands, including ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), whose credit card use has become the subject of a federal inquiry, according to a source who spoke with the Miami Herald.

But while the party's financial disarray has state GOP leaders worried, it's the Crist debacle that could dominate the meeting.

At the exec. cmte board's request, FL GOP general counsel Jason Gonzalez issued a memo yesterday concluding that the state party's loyalty oath would bar exec. cmte members from providing their "active, public, or financial support to any candidate other than 'the Republican candidate' in a general election."

In effect, the decision means that should Crist run as an indie, any executive committee members who don't revoke their support and ask for their donations back would be subject to disciplinary action, including removal from whatever positions they hold in the state party.

As FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) considers his political future as an independent candidate, he's putting Sen. George LeMieux (R) in an awkward spot.

LeMieux, who ran Crist's past campaigns, served as his chief of staff at one point and has largely been seen as Crist's top political advisor, now has his own political career to consider. Appointed to replace ex-Sen. Mel Martinez (R) last year, LeMieux is said to be taking a serious look at challenging Sen. Bill Nelson (D) in '12.

But LeMieux now has a choice to make: If Crist bolts the GOP and runs as an independent, LeMieux will have to decide between backing his old friend and angering the very GOP primary voters he'll need in '12, or sticking with the party and throwing his pal overboard.

Sources close to LeMieux said they believe he has made his decision, and that he will stick with the party over the person. LeMieux has talked the decision over with his advisors and staff, and they believe LeMieux would endorse ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) if Crist makes his switch official.

"He's made his position pretty clear. He's been a life-long Republican," said one source who asked not to be named revealing internal discussions.

LeMieux is said to feel bad about the decision personally, but it won't come as a surprise to Crist. LeMieux has counseled Crist to remain a GOPer, and as recently as last week he urged Crist to continue his underdog bid against Rubio, he said on a conference call with reporters.

In fact, LeMieux maintains he has not even spoken with Crist about the possibility of an independent candidacy. Sources confirm that Crist has never brought the subject up; they believe it is because Crist has a tendency to ask for advice only if he knows the answer he'll get, and only if he will like that answer.

Sticking with the GOP candidate is LeMieux's only choice if he hopes to preserve his own future in elective office. He would have faced a public rebuke from the FL GOP if he didn't go with Rubio; a memo from the state party's top lawyer, another former Crist aide, sent yesterday said party bylaws require members to abandon Crist for Rubio if the former leaves the party. More damaging, LeMieux would have faced anger from the same party activists who have bolstered Rubio, while simultaneously undercutting Crist's bid.

Already, LeMieux will face an uphill climb if he decides to challenge Nelson in '12. Nelson won 60% of the vote during his '06 re-election bid, albeit against weak GOP contender Katherine Harris. And Nelson already has $2.4M in the bank, while LeMieux has yet to even open a federal campaign account.

But by sticking with the party and backing Rubio over Crist, LeMieux may win the gratitude of a grateful conservative base -- one that would make him the GOP front-runner, all at Crist's expense.

"World News" led with Pres. Obama's speech to Wall Street. "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with oil rig disaster in LA.

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) appeared on "John King, USA" 4/22 p.m.

Meek, on the possibility of Crist running as an indie: "I haven't been ... focusing a lot of time on the movements of what the governor does and what Mr. Rubio has done. But I can tell that you I do know Charlie Crist is going to do what is in the best interest of Charlie Crist and if that is running as an Independent and staying alive until November then that is what he will do."

More Meek: "The governor makes a decision he is going to run as an independent automatically I become a factor in this race. There will no longer be debates with just the two of them. I will be invited as another major candidate in the race. So to say that it will just be a two-way battle that it will continue it will turn into a three-way battle."

CNN's King: "Can you run statewide without the Democrats bringing up immigration reform this year? Would you prefer they do that, yes or no?"

Meek: "I prefer they do it. Floridians understand the importance of having people come forth and pay taxes and knowing who's in the state of Florida. Diversity is not a new word to Florida, and I believe that dealing with the right immigration reform is going to be important, requiring people to come forth and pay taxes, requiring people to step forward, so that number of undocumented individuals can get smaller so that law enforcement can eject those individuals from the country" (CNN, 4/22).

After the jump, interviews with Sens. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR).

Good Friday morning. Pres. Obama is on his way to Asheville, NC, today for a weekend getaway. He'll be a heck of a keynote speaker for the NC Chiropractic Association, which is holding its annual conference at the historic Grove Park Inn.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter today and over the weekend in politics:

VP JOE BIDEN: While Obama heads off for a quick vacation, Biden hits the trail in PA, another swing state the pair will need as they run for re-election in several years. More immediately, Dems are trying to hold Sen. Arlen Specter's (D-PA) seat this fall and the late Rep. John Murtha's (D) seat in a special election next month.

Biden has campaign events scheduled in Pittsburgh, for former Murtha aide Mark Critz (D). Later, he'll speak at the Wilkes-Barre/Scranton airport with Specter. May 18 is critical for both Critz and Specter -- Critz faces businessman Tim Burns (R) in a winner-take-all special election, while Specter has to get past Rep. Joe Sestak (D) in the Dem primary.

Biden has proven a crucial ally for Dems in 3 special elections over the last year, making stops in NY-20 and NY-23 on behalf of now-Reps. Scott Murphy (D) and Bill Owens (D). Murtha's district is similar to the 2 upstate NY seats, and Dems have made the same commitments to Critz's campaign as they did to Owens and Murphy; FEC reports show the DCCC has put $282K into the district on Critz's behalf. Then again, it's critical Dems win the seat: A loss could signal the party is doomed in Nov., and send even more incumbents scurrying into retirement.

REP. KENDRICK MEEK: Overlooked in the Charlie Crist will-he-or-won't-he (We say: he will) drama of the last week, Meek's campaign has to be re-energized by the prospect of a win. The young congressman was running far behind both FL Gov. Crist and ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R); with both in the race, the chances for a Sen. Meek improve dramatically.

"The governor makes a decision that he's going to run as an Independent, automatically, I become a factor in this race. There will no longer be debates with just the two of them. I would be invited as another major candidate in the race. So to say that it will just be a two way battle, that it will continue, it will turn into a three way battle," Meek said on CNN's "John King, USA" last night.

He's right -- the latest Quinnipiac poll shows Meek trailing Crist by 8 and Rubio by 6 in a hypothetical 3-way matchup. Meek only draws support from 55% of Dem voters, something likely to change as the race progresses and voters come home. Suddenly, a seat that was once a lock-down guarantee for the GOP is now an opportunity for Dems to score a surprising, and shocking, upset in Nov.

BROADWAY BANK: Dems may need to score the upset in FL, given the way things are going in IL. Pres. Obama's former seat is in serious jeopardy, and today represents what could be a key turning point in the race. Officials at Broadway Bank, the Chicago institution owned by state Treas. Alexi Giannoulias's (D) family, faces a deadline today to raise $85M to recapitalize after bad assets hurt its financial position.

If real estate developer/financier Jeff Greene (D) decides to jump into the FL SEN race, he might have some explaining to do.

Greene is mulling a bid that would pit him against Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) for the Dem nod, Washington Post's Cillizza reported this a.m.

A self-made billionaire who made his way to no. 317 on Forbes' "400 Richest Americans" list by shorting subprime credit, Greene has the money -- $1.25B as of Sep. '09 -- to make a serious play for the nod.

Whether he'd be taken seriously by voters, though, is another matter.

Among the nuggets likely to be seized upon in Greene's background, which could be generously characterized as "colorful":

-- Greene grew up "rock solid" as a Dem, but became a GOPer after graduating from Harvard Business School in the '80s, according to the Herald. He became a Dem again after a failed bid for Congress as a GOPer in CA. He's also only been a resident of FL since Apr. '08.

-- Greene has had some interesting run-ins with celebrities. He sued Hollywood director Ron Howard for breach of contract after Howard moved out of a property he was renting from Greene one month into a 6-month lease. Howard countersued, arguing that the property was "infested with rats, leaked and had faulty appliances and polluted water." Howard won, and Greene was ordered to pay him $616K.

-- Mike Tyson was the best man at Greene's wedding in '08, and ex-Hollywood madam Heidi Fleiss spent a year living in Greene's guesthouse after being released from prison, according to an '09 Miami Herald profile of Greene. "It probably doesn't look good for a single guy to have had Heidi living with me, but we weren't dating. She's a nice girl. I've had her over to Passover dinner with my mom," Greene said of the arrangement.

-- Perhaps most problematic for Greene would be the way he made his fortune: through credit default swaps. In FL, among the states hardest hit by the nation's foreclosure crisis, this could be a particularly hard part of Greene's background for voters to swallow.

GOPers are much less reluctant about lining up with the Tea Party movement since last Sept., according to the latest results of the National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

Back then, when asked "how closely should the Republican Party align itself with the Tea Party movement?" 45% of the GOP Insiders said "not at all." But this week, only 16% of the 104 GOP Political Insiders surveyed gave that response. At the same time, 65% said that the GOP should be "somewhat closely" with the movement. Back in September, 49% gave that response.

What accounts for this shift? It seems likely that the risk-reward ratio has changed since last Sept. Back then the movement was still relatively new, untested and the political establishment was still digesting the congressional town hall meetings from Aug. recess, some of which looked more like a rowdy beer hall.

Since then the Tea Party movement showed it could embrace a relatively moderate GOP candidate and provide some grassroots energy for Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) to pull off a stunning upset in a special election in Jan. At the same time, the movement only seems to have gained steam from the health care debate. Still, there was a little caution. As one GOP Insider said, "The GOP needs to harness their energy without appearing to be taken over by it."

Dem Insiders also saw a little less danger in GOPers aligning at least somewhat closely with the Tea Party movement than they did back in September. And as one Dem Insider joked, "How can they not? They helped create the lock-and-load environment."

For complete results and additional comments click here.

NH Gov. John Lynch (D) is fighting back against an outside conservative group, launching the first ad of his re-election bid.

The piece, produced by Grunwald Communications, features Lynch touting his work as gov. and aims to portray himself as a strong leader. The ad uses the refrain "Lynch leads" 5 times in the 30-second spot.

Lynch's spot stands in contrast to an ad launched last week by the National Organization For Marriage, accusing Lynch of switching positions on gay marriage and on taxes.

Lynch officially declared his intention to pursue an unprecedented 4th two-year term as gov. last Friday. And he has already come under attack from GOP frontrunner '02/'08 NH-01 candidate/ex-HHS Commis. John Stephen (R), who responded to Lynch's ad. "New Hampshire taxpayers know that they can't afford any more of Governor Lynch's 'leadership,' which is why he needs to buy television ads in April to prop up his image," said Stephen.

Lynch's first ad, "Governor John Lynch leads":

After the jump, the National Organization for Marriage's anti-Lynch ad.

As FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) ponders whether to abandon the party's Senate primary against ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio and run for the open seat as an independent, GOP Political Insiders have some advice for him -- don't do it.

In the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll, nearly two-thirds, 62%, of the 104 GOP Political Insiders who responded to this week's survey warned Crist against taking that leap. Their rationally generally was he won't be able the raise the money that's necessary to win a statewide race in FL, especially when you don't have party apparatus to back you up.

Instead, they advised that he withdraw from the '10 race altogether, make peace with Rubio and the party's conservatives, earn their gratitude and then wait until '12 and run against Sen. Bill Nelson (D). If he doesn't he becomes a man without a party facing an uphill race that he's likely to loose effectively ending his political career as a GOPer.

As one GOP Insider brutally put it, "he will be left with no friends or potential employers.

On the other hand, 37% of the GOP Insiders thought he should go for it, noting that with the public's frustration with both parties Crist has an opening. Against Rubio and likely Dem nominee Rep. Kendrick Meek "he has potential to drive right down the middle and win a plurality in the general" observed a GOP Insider.

Dems predictably were cheering Crist to go for it. Just over two-thirds, 68%, of the 105 Dem Insiders who responded said that Crist should run as an independent. Several noted that they'd seen one of their own, Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT), pull off the trick in '06 after he lost his primary.

"It's the only way Crist can win," said one Dem Insider. "Support for the Obama stimulus and a grateful presidential bear hug finished Crist's GOP chances."

For complete results and additional comments, click here.

Ex-NY Gov. George Pataki's (R) new political organization is running cable TV ads invoking Paul Revere's midnight ride, making his first overt move toward building buzz for a potential WH campaign.

Pataki, who has been out of office since deciding not to run for re-election in '06, is hitching himself to the repeal bandwagon, using his group to advocate rolling back the health care overhaul passed last month. His group, Revere America, has held meetings in 6 states this week -- including IA -- aimed at collecting signatures for a pro-repeal petition.

Like PACs controlled by MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) and ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R), Pataki's group could help raise his profile as he considers whether to make a WH bid. Unlike Pawlenty and Romney, Pataki is actually running ads that attempt to frame him as the defender of liberty.

Pataki considered running in '08, but dropped out of contention before he even made anything official.

The Revere America ad, which Washington Post's Dave Weigel says is running at least on MSNBC:

Cross-posted from National Journal's Under the Influence blog

A high-powered political briefing yesterday at Karl Rove's Northwest D.C. home (which doubles as his office) was attended by about 2 dozen big name GOP consultants, fundraisers and operatives. They're fast ramping up 3 separate groups that intend to spend tens of millions each on ads and get out the vote drives to help scores of GOP Senate and House members in the mid-term elections.

The electoral outlook on key races was sketched out by Rove and former RNC chairman Ed Gillespie, both of whom have already raised millions for a new 527 group called American Crossroads. The luncheon briefing drew such key players as former Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) and Fred Malek, respectively, the chief executive and the chairman of the American Action Network, a new 501 (c3) and (c4) which plans to do direct advocacy ads this year for candidates and is trying to raise $25M.

Also in attendance was Bill Miller, the political director of the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, which expects to attract $50M for its issue ad drives this year; and Steven Law, the newly installed president of American Crossroads which hopes to raise $60M for its political efforts (and has pledges for almost $30M so far). Law was the chamber's general counsel until a few weeks ago.

The meeting also featured a legal briefing for the 3 groups about the dos -- and don'ts -- of coordination and the rules for mounting direct advocacy campaigns in light of the Supreme Court's Citizens United decision and other recent court cases. In general, these outside groups can share certain kinds of information about races to maximize their resources and clout, but can't coordinate with any of the GOP party committees or individual campaigns.

In a small sign of solidarity (and efficiency), 2 of the groups -- American Crossroads and American Action Network -- have this month moved into adjacent offices at 1401 New York Ave. N.W.

Ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R), the surprise front-runner for the GOP nomination to replace retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY), is showcasing his highest-profile endorser in a new ad running this week.

After cutting a check to, and endorsing, Paul's campaign last year, Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) makes an appearance in Paul's new ad, endorsing Paul's view of limited government in a brief clip of a pre-taped interview.

"He wants limited government. I respect that, and I'm proud to support him," Palin says in the clip.

The ad was not announced to the media, as Paul's campaign has done in the past. It has been running since Monday. Palin's endorsement could prove crucial to Paul's campaign in advance of the May 18 primary. She is one of only a handful of prominent party leaders -- including Bunning himself -- to back Paul's campaign, serving as key validator for conservative voters.

Though polls show Paul is running ahead of Sec/State Trey Grayson (R), GOP strategists who back Grayson say they have seen positive movement in recent weeks. Grayson will launch attacks on Paul's positions, most notably over video in which Paul appears to suggest he wants to close the prison at Guantanamo Bay. Prominent GOPers like ex-VP Dick Cheney are backing Grayson, calling Paul's position on some national security issues dangerous.

While it may prove effective, Palin's appearance in the ad is very brief -- she is on screen in person for just 4 seconds, a clip taken from an interview she gave with Fox News.

Check out Paul's new ad, "Fighting Back":

The FL GOP is making preparations in case Gov. Charlie Crist (R) runs as an independent candidate, reminding GOP office-holders they cannot back a candidate who doesn't run under the party banner.

In a memo to the executive director of the FL GOP, general counsel Jason Gonzalez concludes a party rule would prevent GOP officials from backing Crist's campaign if he runs as anything other than a GOPer.

"[T]he Party Loyalty Oath forbids Republican Executive Committee members from supporting any candidate other than the candidate nominated by the voters of the Republican Party through its primary election," Gonzalez wrote in the memo. The loyalty oath means GOP officials "cannot provide their active, public, or financial support to any candidate other than 'the Republican candidate' in a general election."

The loyalty oath allows party officials to back a registered GOPer in a nonpartisan race, but in a partisan election, they wouldn't be allowed to support Crist, even if he remains a registered GOPer. What's more, party officials have to actively ask for their contributions back if they want to keep their own jobs.

"Any member who fails to formally revoke his or her public support and request the return of any contributions made to a candidate running against the candidate of the Republican Party would be in violation of the RPOF Rules and would be subject to removal from party office and membership on Republican executive committees," Gonzalez added.

The memo, sent to Ronnie Whitaker, does not specifically mention Crist, but Gonzalez says he was asked to determine whether party officials would be allowed to support a registered GOPer running as an independent.

It is the latest sign that party officials have all but given up on Crist running as a GOPer, instead setting up a 3-way contest between Crist, ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) this fall. Earlier this week, NRSC executive director Rob Jesmer said in an email to GOP strategists there was no chance Crist would run, while party officials told Hotline OnCall they believe an independent bid is imminent.

A measure intended to cut down on wasteful and excessive spending at the RNC is not being followed, contributing to a culture of financial abuses, according to an internal report.

The report, obtained by Hotline OnCall, details lax financial controls that allowed an outside consultant to be reimbursed for nearly $2K spent at a risque Hollywood nightclub. What's more, an internal review found the party is paying hundreds of thousands of extra dollars to consultants who already draw salaries from the committee.

RNC Treasurer Randy Pullen, an accountant by trade, described the sloppy processes used by committee staffers in a report to fellow members. While policies in place should be sufficient to prevent abuse, those policies aren't being followed, Pullen found.

The review began after a CA GOP consultant was reimbursed for the nightclub expense. Pullen interviewed top officials at the RNC, including finance director Rob Bickhart, whose initials approved the expense. Bickhart has told RNC officials that a lower level staffer, Allison Meyers, signed Bickhart's initials. Meyers was fired after the nightclub expense came to light.

Doug Heye, the RNC's communications director, would not comment on the internal document.

Much of the out of control spending takes place in the finance department, according to Pullen's report. Last year, Pullen and Boyd Rutherford, the RNC's administration director, suggested drastically cutting back on the number of party-issued credit cards; that proposal was shot down, thanks to the finance department. After news of the nightclub expense leaked, the party took away the finance departments cards. Now, only Rutherford and Steele have party-issued cards.

Meanwhile, Bickhart has used a contract with the RNC to pad his own salary. The committee has a contract with Bickhart's company, eCapitol Direct, that provides the company with $22.5K for every $9M the committee raises through direct marketing sources. In his report, Pullen estimated the party will pay Bickhart's company an extra $270K this year. Pullen said Bickhart's contract should be cancelled.

Pullen also discovered a previous contract with Bickhart's company, which would have paid him $37.5K per $9M the committee raised, and a contract with GKV LLC, another fundraising firm, that paid the company $10K a month. All 3 contracts would have had to be ratified by an officer or the RNC executive committee; none were.

"I am of the opinion that additional administrative controls need to be put in place to review and authorize expenditures and develop budgetary controls in the major donor programs," Pullen wrote to fellow RNC members.

The ratification requirement was implemented last year after an oversight left a similar requirement out of the party's quadrennial rule book. A private battle between Steele and Pullen spilled into the open as long-time committee members backed Pullen's insistence on financial controls. Steele interpreted the move as a threat to his chairmanship.

Under the rule, passed at a special RNC meeting last spring in DC, top officers of the RNC must approve any contract that pays more than $100K a year.

"World News" led with GM paying back the final installment of the bailout money. "Evening News" led with the oil rig explosion off the LA coast. "Nightly News" led with massive teacher cuts across the U.S.

Sen. Arlen Specter (D) went on the "Ed Show" 4/21 p.m.

Specter, on who Pres. Obama should appoint to the SCOTUS: "I think it's very important for the president to stick to his guns and appoint somebody who is strong, who can do intellectual battle with Justice Scalia because the Supreme Court has become an ideological battleground. And this business of conciliation, I think, is unrealistic. And the president is going to be in office long enough so that he may have enough appointments to have five people who are attuned to his ideological approach. That's what he ought to do."

More Specter: "I wouldn't categorize it in terms of liberal/conservative/moderate. I would categorize it as someone who sticks to precedent. ... If we have somebody who follows the precedence and doesn't make those extreme changes on judicial activism I think we'll have somebody who will be right in line with what the President Obama wants."

Specter, on the nomination hearings: "I think it will be tougher than Justice Sotomayor. Things have hardened considerably. We're going to have to take this case to the people. We find that there has been some give on Republican leadership in the last day or so on regulation of Wall Street in the face of tremendous public pressure. ... And I think that's what it's going to take to get a reasonable approach on this one."

After the jump, more from Specter, and ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ) weighs in on the immigration law debate.

Good Thursday morning. What better way to celebrate the 40th anniversary of Earth Day than by watching VP Joe Biden on "The View"?

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter in politics today:

PRES. OBAMA: Obama heads to Cooper Union today to deliver a speech on the need for financial regulatory reform, addressing the very community Congress will attempt to regulate. Obama will call for a new era of responsibility, coupled with a new set of rules to govern some of the same financial products that helped cause the economic downturn in the first place.

Late yesterday, Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) brought the bill to the floor, and Senate GOPers have signaled a new willingness to work with the majority in passing the measure. It's an opportunity for the admin to score a rare bipartisan victory, and one that could help Dems this Nov. Even with the party in dire electoral straits, Wall Street reform could inoculate some members who might otherwise have trouble convincing voters they've been focused enough on the economy.

FL STATE SEN. DAN WEBSTER: Webster, long the target of NRCC overtures, is set to become the latest example of an establishment GOPer who might have trouble in his own primary. Webster is set to join the race against Rep. Alan Grayson (D-FL), giving the GOP a top-tier candidate in a district where the party has a strong chance this Nov.

But Webster will face a host of strong contenders. State Rep. Kurt Kelly (R) has hired a stable of top-notch GOP strategists to run his bid. NRCC chair Pete Sessions this week had good words to say about businessman Bruce O'Donoghue (R). And '08 candidate Todd Long (R), who gave then-Rep. Ric Keller (R) a surprisingly tight race 2 years ago, has actually been on a ballot before.

The race is the latest in a long list of contests in which the establishment favorite doesn't have it easy. Primaries don't often cost parties seats, despite conventional wisdom, but this year, given the level of excitement on the GOP side, several packed primaries could cost the party seats. Consider NRCC favorite Steve Fincher (R), the gospel singing farmer from Frog Jump, TN. He faces a tough race of his own from Shelby Co. Commis. George Flinn (R), even though the party has made clear they prefer Fincher. The winner of the Aug. 5 primary is going to have a tough time taking on state Sen. Roy Herron (D), who has the Dem primary, in the race to replace retiring Rep. John Tanner (D), to himself.

EX-FL GOP CHAIR JIM GREER: He was kicked out of office. He is reportedly under investigation for his fundraising practices while head of the FL GOP. But perhaps no one will have a bigger impact on FL Gov. Charlie Crist's (R) potential independent bid to replace Sen. George LeMieux (R) than Greer.

CO LG Jane Norton (R) shook up her leadership team today amid concerns her once front-running campaign was stumbling.

Norton named state Senate Min. Leader Josh Penry (R) as her new manager and said veteran GOP consultant Rich Beeson would serve as her top strategist, moves the campaign cast as "aggressive new changes."

The substitutions were heralded as wise moves by CO and DC GOP sources, who have become increasingly worried about Norton's viability after a series of recent missteps.

Norton surprised members of her party last week by announcing that she will forgo the May 22 state convention and instead petition her way onto the Aug. 10 primary ballot. That decision will likely give Norton's rival, Weld Co. DA Ken Buck (R), a greater opening among party activists.

Norton cited Buck and Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) -- who is also gathering petitions -- as the reason for her decision, an explanation left many observers scratching their heads. CO GOP chair Dick Wadhams called Norton's move a "mistake" and barred her from having any presence at the 3.5K-delegate convo.

But establishment GOPers who recruited Norton are optimistic Penry, a rising star who dropped his own GOV bid last year, can turn Norton's campaign around.

State GOPers have increasingly seen Norton -- once the uncontested front runner -- as en route to disaster. She raised $815K in the first quarter, but has been burning through it quickly. And getting on the ballot will prove a costly operation.

Buck, meanwhile, has been gaining ground on Norton, besting her in the preliminary round of party convention voting and winning endorsements from national conservatives like Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC). Buck took in $219K in the first quarter, including a $100K loan to himself. He ended the quarter with $416K CoH to Norton's $643K.

Ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R) posted a disappointing 1st Q fundraising total, raising a paltry $37K and finishing the Q with just under $10K CoH, according to his FEC report. Hostettler has a history of poor fundraising, as he raised just over $600K during the '08 cycle for his tough re-election battle against Brad Ellsworth (D), who raised $1.7M.

Hostettler is holding a 24 hour "money blitz" on Thursday, as he seeks to make up ground in the money race.

Hostettler's numbers mean he will have trouble keeping pace with state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (R), who raised just over $78K in the 1stQ, and Wachovia Securities branch mgr. Don Bates (R), who are both up on TV with ads seeking to boost their name ID during the final stretch of the GOP race. Stutzman's ad went up yesterday, while Bates went up today with a spot in which he says, in an indirect shot at ex-Sen Dan Coats (R), "Hoosiers are ready for fresh leadership."

Meanwhile Coats, who was the GOP leader in 1stQ fundraising with an underwhelming $379K, has been forced to defend his right flank lately, as he has come under fire from Stutzman and Hostettler for his vote to confirm Justice Ruth Bader Ginsberg to SCOTUS.

To help rebut those charges, Coats today landed the endorsement of Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN).

As Stutzman, Hostettler and Bates all seek to make big closing arguments in the form of TV ads and big-name endorsements, these outsider candidates risk splitting the Tea Party vote. And if Coats emerges victorious from the primary, he will still have the tall task of corralling supporters of the other three for a general election bid against Ellsworth.

Education experts offer sharply divided viewpoints over FL Gov. Charlie Crist's (R) decision to veto a controversial education bill last week. Crist put politics before kids, according to those who supported the legislation, but to those who opposed it, the very opposite is true.

"By coming out in favor of a bill, only to later veto it, the Governor appears to be pandering for political support from the unions which only fuels voter cynicism," John Bailey, a director at Dutko, who formerly advised the WH on education policy, said. Bailey characterized the decision as "squandered opportunity" to improve teacher effectiveness that will also hurt the state's chances to win in the second round of Race to the Top, a multi-billion dollar grant competition.

The legislation at hand, SB 6, would have eliminated the traditional teacher tenure system and implemented a merit-pay system where teacher salaries are tied to student performance. The concepts are very popular with conservatives and are considered by some to reflect "mainstream" education reform ideas.

Tom Vander Ark, who spent 7 years as executive director of education at the Bill and Melinda Gates Foundation, agrees with Bailey, calling the choice a "bad bargain" to try and rescue his campaign.

To Sandy Kress, former senior education adviser to George W. Bush, Crist's veto decision is enough to push him out of politics. After the veto decision, Kress hopes Florida voters "give him the retirement he so richly deserves." Kress attacked Crist for being absent during the legislative process to develop the bill.

The decision is a "real setback for education reform" in the view of Arthur Rothkopf. Rothkopf, who testified in front of the FL House in favor of the bill, is a senior vice president at the U.S. Chamber of Commerce where he heads their Education and Workforce initiative.

The DSCC is taking the possibility of a threat to Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) seriously enough to begin an extensive and detailed examination of her potential opponent's business records.

The party committee recently dispatched a team of researchers to WA, where they scoured public information for details on ex-state Sen. Dino Rossi's (R) involvement in a real estate investment company, a source with knowledge of the research project tells Hotline OnCall.

Rossi, who lost GOV bids in '04 and '08 by slim margins, is not even a declared candidate. But he's talking like one, and a former close advisor said the contest is weighing heavily on his mind.

"I don't know if he's going to run but he's certainly giving it a great deal of consideration. Six weeks, 2 months ago, it wasn't on his mind," said J. Vander Stoep, a top WA GOP strategist and attorney who ran Rossi's races. "Now that there have been a lot of polls and a lot of interest, he's definitely thinking about it."

But Dems are treating Rossi like a real contender. Rossi joined Coast Equity Partners, a privately-held firm in Seattle, in Dec. '08. Since then, the company has created about 2 dozen limited liability corporations in order to buy various properties in King, Pierce and Snohomish Cos., the state's 3 largest population centers.

In the normal course of business, the company has been involved in various lawsuits and land deals. The DSCC is combing through those records to find out whether Rossi's company got any special deals or was involved in any suits that could become politically embarrassing.

Though Rossi has been through the scrutiny of 2 statewide campaigns before, Dem strategists believe his post-political career gives them new ammunition to make Rossi's life uncomfortable. In such a heavy mound of documents, Dems believe, there is bound to be at least something useable during the course of a campaign.

More registered voters approve of the job Chief Justice John Roberts is doing at the High Court than the job Pres. Obama is doing at the WH, according to a poll released today by Quinnipiac Univ.

Roberts' approval rating stands at 49%, while just 21% disapprove; 30% are undecided. Obama's approval is at an all-time low in the Q poll, falling to 44%, with 46% disapproving.

And, as Obama moves to pick a replacement for retiring Justice John Paul Stevens, voters increasingly believe the Supreme Court is too liberal and are embracing a more originalist philosophy about the Court and the Constitution.

An increasing number of voters believe the court is too liberal; 29% feel SCOTUS is too liberal, while 19% find it too conservative. In each of the 3 other times Quinnipiac asked this question this decade, the number of voters who found the court too conservative exceeded the number who found it too liberal.

Voters are also more likely than ever to say they believe in a more originalist philosophy with regard to judging. When asked if they thought the court "should only consider the original intentions of the authors of the Constitution" in making decisions, or if the court should instead "consider changing times and current realities in applying the principles of the Constitution," 49% chose the more originalist view, while 42% believed in a more liberal approach.

That is a reversal from July '08, the last time the question was asked. At that time, 52% favored the more liberal view, while 40% said they supported the original intent theory.

Meanwhile, as he prepares to name his second justice to the court, Obama faces a skeptical electorate. Just 27% of voters are "very confident" that Obama will choose the right person, and voters are effectively split when asked whom they trusted more to select a justice: Obama or Senate GOPers. Obama is more trusted by 46% of voters, while 43% trust the Senate minority.

While a plurality of voters say the Senate should only consider a nominee's qualifications and not his or her views on controversial issues like gay marriage and abortion (47%-43%), 48% of voters say that senators would be justified in using a filibuster to prevent a vote on a nominee with whose stances on those kinds of issues they disagreed. Just 41% said that using the filibuster would not be justified.

There are some bright spots for the WH as they approach their second SCOTUS nomination battle. Voters approve of Obama's first choice, Justice Sonia Sotomayor, 52%-32%. Fully 60% of voters say they agree with Roe v. Wade, though that is down slightly from earlier this decade.

The Hotline's John Mercurio writes:

Voters are very angry this year, of course, and candidates know it. So do pollsters, including the Pew Research Center, which published a 138-page poll this week saying that, well, voters are very angry. But here's the funny thing about anger: Much like beauty, it's in the eye of the beholder.

Which brings me to Ohio, the battleground state where anger is driving the marquee races for Senate, House and governor. In conversations with candidates running in those contests, very different versions of that anger have emerged.

Rob Portman, the likely GOP Senate nominee, told me, not surprisingly, that the anger he hears about is aimed squarely at the party in power. "There is frustration, some people are angry, no doubt about it," said Portman, a former congressman who also served as George W. Bush's budget director and trade representative. "They just don't see things getting better. And they see Democrats focused on everything other than jobs. The health care debate wasn't what they were focused on."

Portman must be talking to different Ohioans than Lt. Gov. Lee Fisher, the Democratic frontrunner. Or perhaps he's listening to them differently.

"There's a general feeling that Washington is broken because partisanship and obstructionism and scoring political points have become more important than getting results," Fisher told me, laying the blame for all three transgressions on... Republicans. "There's also an increasing understanding that we're in this economic mess because of eight long years of misguided trade, economic and regulatory policies under George W. Bush that brought us the deepest recession most of us have ever seen."

...

For his part, Gov. Ted Strickland (D) also sees voter anger -- among Republicans. "It's going to be a gully washer of a campaign," he told local Democrats recently at a fundraiser in Dayton. "[Republicans] are out of power. They have lost power and influence, and they don't like it a bit."

On that point, Republicans don't disagree.

Read the whole column here.

Donors motivated by passage of a major health care overhaul gave millions of dollars to candidates on their side of the issue just after the bill passed Congress, new FEC filings show.

Both parties, incumbents and challengers saw a surge in donations after the House passed health care reform legislation on March 21 and Pres. Obama signed it on March 23. The RNC launched a "fire Nancy Pelosi" campaign that netted more than $1.4M, and the DNC saw a $2M increase in online donations, sources said.

All told, of the donations the RNC received from individuals in March, 63% of it came after the 21st, when the House passed the bill. The DNC raised 67% of its money, or nearly $3M, from individuals giving more than $200 -- the so-called itemized contributions -- after the bill passed.

Both parties had big days surrounding the health care vote. The DNC raised $740K from individual donors on March 23, the day Obama signed the bill, and March 24. The RNC raised $668K from donors on March 25; that single day accounted for nearly a quarter of the party's total individual gifts over $200.

The DCCC raised $3.8M in itemized contributions after the bill passed, FEC records show. An incredible 78% of those donations, $2.98M, came after the bill passed. The accounting department did not report $1.98M of those contributions until March 31, the final day of the reporting period.

Though the NRSC and the DSCC do not file electronically with the FEC, making their data less accessible, an NRSC spokesman said the committee received 63% of its contributions after the House vote. Figures for the DSCC were not immediately available.

Candidates did well, too, according to anecdotes from around the nation. Reps. Betsy Markey (D-CO) and Tom Perriello (D-VA), both endangered freshmen who voted for the bill, raised impressive sums last quarter, with the bulk of that cash coming in the final 10 days after they voted in favor of the measure. State Rep. Cory Gardner (R), Markey's likely opponent this fall, also saw an uptick in contributions after he came out strongly against the bill.

The NRCC, which had its own strong fundraising month, earned more of its itemized contributions before the final health care vote than after. FEC reports show the NRCC pulled in 44% of its monthly contribution totals after the vote.

The figures do not include unitemized donations -- contributions of less than $200 that do not have to be individually reported to the FEC. Those small-dollar donations also increased in March.

Controversial immigration legislation that has passed the AZ legislature is forcing Gov. Jan Brewer (R) and Sen. John McCain (R) into awkward positions as they struggle to define themselves as the most conservative on the sensitive issue.

McCain and Brewer are squaring off in primaries against candidates running to the right of them, in an already conservative-leaning state -- one in which immigration plays a major role for the GOP electorate.

The consequences of taking stances that are perceived as soft on issues like immigration may become serous liabilities as the race progresses. For Brewer in particular, the issue has already galvanized opponents of the bill, sparked protests from groups, and has the potential to remain a signature issue in Nov.

Already under assault in the GOP primary, Brewer risks vulnerability on an issue that dominates the state's GOP electorate if she doesn't sign the bill. One of Brewer's GOP opponents, the self-funding NRA board member/firearms training center owner Owen "Buz" Mills (R), has voiced his support for the measure.

"For too long, we've waited for federal officials to do their job and secure the border. We wait no longer," said Mills. Treas. Dean Martin (R) is also for the legislation.

Characterized by many observers as perhaps the strictest immigration bill in the U.S., the proposal has garnered mixed reactions from candidates running for statewide office in AZ. The bill now sits on Brewer's desk, awaiting her signature or veto.

Signing the legislation could come back to haunt Brewer with some moderates and indies in a potential general election match-up with AG Terry Goddard (D). Goddard has come out against the bill, saying Tuesday the "bill does nothing to improve border security or address the core causes of illegal immigration." While Brewer is expected to sign the legislation, she hasn't yet publicly declared her intention. She has until Saturday to make up her mind.

The bill has proven problematic for McCain as well. McCain spoke positively of the bill earlier this week, leading some opponents to charge McCain with flip-flopping after he supported a comprehensive approach to immigration reform for so many years.

Ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R), McCain's primary challenger, strongly supports the measure. "Without a doubt, S.B. 1070 sends a clear message to illegal aliens who enter Arizona that they will not find sanctuary here," Hayworth said last week.

"World News" led with Pres. Obama going after Wall Street. "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with flight restrictions eased in northern Europe.

Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) spoke with CNN's Crowley for an interview that aired on the "Situation Room" 4/20 p.m.

Lincoln, on what she has "done wrong as far as" Dem "orthodoxy is concerned": "I look for results. I don't look at the politics of things. I don't look at the left or the right. ... What I look at is getting results for Arkansans, getting results for the people of America. And I look for common ground to solve that problem because I do think common ground is the place to be."

More Lincoln, on whether that "might cost" her the election: "No, I have to say, I've always had tough races. That's just by the nature, whether it was my age or my gender. ... But I think, by and large, Arkansans and Americans see through that. ... People want to see nowadays, I think, government moving forward, sometimes one step at a time, but more importantly, solving our problems and to quit the bickering that happens out there."

Lincoln, on whether she's thought about returning the $4.5K in donations she's received from Goldman Sachs: "No. I think the larger point here is, is that whatever that contribution was ... [it] didn't make any difference because I still produced one of the toughest reform bills that's been presented. ... People want transparency and accountability in their government and in their financial system and that's what we do in this bill."

After the jump, more from Lincoln, and updates on other Senate races.

Good Wednesday morning. Don't bother emailing or calling any Congressional reporters after about 5 p.m. today. They'll be trying on their tuxes before tonight's Congressional correspondents dinner.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter in politics today:

SENATE NEGOTIATORS: The financial regulatory reform bill is set to hit the floor as early as today amid signs there is hope for bipartisan passage of the bill after all.

Last week, all 41 GOP senators signed a letter of opposition, with Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell casting the bill as little more than a permanent bailout fund (A characterization that had independent and Dem fact-checkers blowing all manner of whistles). Dems, on the other hand, have been just as stubborn, refusing to change the bill at all unless they were guaranteed to win over GOP votes.

Now, McConnell and GOPers are changing their tune. On the Senate floor and later during a meeting with reporters, McConnell said he saw a new path to bipartisan agreement, and that negotiations had resumed. That's a relief to some GOPers, who had begun to question the wisdom of clashing with Dems over an issue that could leave the minority vulnerable to charges it favors Wall Street over Main Street.

A bipartisan compromise would be a political win for Pres. Obama, who has had to push the major pieces of his agenda without many GOP votes. And it would give Dems the opportunity to point to specific legislation they've passed that responds to unpopular bailouts that fuel the Tea Party movement. But does it matter? Polls show, in the wake of the contentious health care debate, that exhausted voters are less enthusiastic than they were during the final weeks of March. If Pres. Obama gets a win and no one's paying attention, does it make a sound?

HONOLULU CITY COUNCILOR CHARLES DJOU: For the second time this month, the DCCC is up with an ad hitting Djou's record, further evidence that Dems are worried about holding the HI seat in which Obama was born. The ad, which takes after Djou's stance against a budget bill, has about $55K behind it, according to a report filed yesterday with the FEC, bringing the total the DCCC has spent on the race to about $139K (Check out the ad at the end of this post).

Dems have clearly placed a large bet that their expenditures can help save the late Rep. John Murtha's (D) Johnstown, PA-based seat, reserving $896K worth of airtime over the remaining weeks of the primary. But they're quietly, and clearly, worried about Djou's chances to take advantage of a split Dem vote.

The May 18 primary in PA and the May 22 mail-in contest in HI are, in the grand scheme of things, a drop in the bucket. Even if Djou wins, he would be an underdog in the Nov. general election in the heavily-Dem district. And if businessman Tim Burns (R) wins in PA, it's probably because the blue collar demographics of the district are moving it into the GOP's column.

The RNC spent more than $340K at a semi-annual meeting in Honolulu in Jan., the latest example of the party spending lavishly on itself while GOP officials worry they won't have enough money to take advantage of a promising national landscape this fall.

According to FEC reports filed late Tuesday, the RNC spent $167K on facilities for the 3-day meeting, which took place at a posh resort in Waikiki. That figure doesn't include rooms and office space for the party employees who staffed the meeting, which added up to at least another $90K.

At least 33 RNC staffers and officials made the trip to HI, including top members of the political, communications and research departments, as first reported by Hotline OnCall. Party staff were reimbursed for meals and travel as part of the trip.

RNC communications director Doug Heye, who did not work at the committee when the meeting in Honolulu took place, declined to comment on the expenses Tuesday night.

The $340K documented in FEC filings does not include airfare for each staffer, which could amount to tens of thousands more. FEC rules require the party committees to disclose how they spent their money, including listing merchants who received payments, but it does not require the RNC to list destinations of air travel. Given that the RNC spends thousands of dollars for air travel every month, that means there is no way to account for the staffers who flew to Honolulu.

The total spent on the semi-annual meeting, at which routine party business occurred, means the party shelled out more than $2K for each of the 168 members of the national committee. That does not include airfare for those members. Only the top 3 RNC officials -- chairman Michael Steele, co-chair Jan Larimer and Treasurer Randy Pullen -- had their flights paid for by the RNC. Every other committee member had to pay his or her own way.

A total of 29 staffers received reimbursements for expenses made during the meeting. Steele and then-executive director Ken McKay, both of whom attended the meeting, did not report receiving any reimbursements.

State Senate Pres. Libby Mitchell's (D) camp released an internal poll today showing her with a 20% lead in the crowded Dem primary.

Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research conducted the poll from April 11-14, surveying 587 Dem primary LVs for a margin of error of +/- 4.0%. Mitchell was tested against a field consisting of ex-AG Steve Rowe, '90/'92 ME-02 nominee/ex-ME Dept. of Conservation Commis./ex-state Rep. Pat McGowan, ex-ME Econ./Commun. Dev. Commis./ex-state House Speaker John Richardson and businesswoman Rosa Scarcelli.

Primary Election Matchup
Mitchell    36%
Rowe        16
McGowan     13
Richardson   4
Scarcelli    3

Mitchell, who received the endorsement of Bill Clinton earlier this year, is part of a large field of candidates vying for the state's top job, in what appears to be a wide-open race. She is one of four candidates, including one GOPer, pursuing public financing under ME's Clean Election System.

While GOPers have not been shy about advertising on TV, no Dem has gone up yet on TV. ME's primary will be held on June 8.

The top 3 Dem campaign committees have outraised their GOP rivals, adding to a financial gap that some on the GOP side believe could rob them of opportunities come Nov.

The DSCC will report having raised $6M in March, barely higher than the NRSC's $5.14M raised. The DSCC also has a narrow cash on hand advantage, with $17M in the bank versus the NRSC's $15M.

Also this month, the DNC outraised the RNC by a $13M to $11M margin. Earlier today, the DCCC announced it would file reports showing it had outraised the NRCC, $9.77M to $8M.

Both the DCCC and the DSCC have paid off all their debt. The DNC still had $3.7M in obligations at the end of last month, though they have yet to report a debt figure this month. None of the GOP committees have showed a debt for months.

GOP insiders see the financial disadvantage as a problem, but not one that will stop it from making major gains this year. Given a national landscape that looks better than any the party has faced since '94, GOP strategists worry most about leaving opportunities on the table.

Still, GOPers have dealt with a cash deficit before, and none of the Dem committees sport the advantage they held last cycle. At this point in '08, for example, the DCCC had $44.3M in the bank, while the NRCC had $7.1M on hand.

NRCC chair Pete Sessions is the latest member of House GOP leadership to declare the party is within reach of the majority -- and he said he won't have succeeded at the NRCC if the party doesn't take back the Speaker's gavel.

"We believe we speak forthrightly about winning back the majority and retiring Nancy Pelosi," Sessions told reporters today. Later, he added: "Anything less, I did not fulfill my mission statement. And as you heard me say before, I'm not in the least bit interested in coming in second."

Sessions pointed to a national atmosphere that favors GOPers, with polls showing the party leading the generic Congressional ballot and showing Pres. Obama's approval rating hovering under 50% -- a critical measure of the incumbent party's chances in a general election.

House GOP leaders chafe at the Dem notion that the minority is a party without ideas, and Sessions said the GOP would have a Contract with America-like document to show voters before Election Day rolls around, slated to be revealed after Labor Day.

"We will draw a picture, with this contract, of the exact direction that we will head," Sessions said. "We will draw a specific picture of the expectations of the performance of a Republican majority, and it will be very directional."

GOPers are upbeat about their recruiting, which they say proves they are no longer a regional party. A total of 121 GOP challengers will report having at least $200K in the bank already, an indication of the party's strength.

And despite trailing Dems in fundraising, Sessions pointed to earlier reports that show Dems didn't have to outspend their GOP rivals in '06 and '08 to win. Meanwhile, Sessions said, the party is working well with the RNC, even though the national committee has been plagued by its own money troubles. So far, the RNC has transferred $2M each to the NRCC and the NRSC.

"They are doing their fair share, to the limit of their ability. I'm sure they will help us," Sessions said.

Dems struggling to hold on to the House widened their cash on hand advantage in March as the DCCC once again outraised the NRCC, according to filings to be made with the FEC today.

Last month, the DCCC raised $9.77M and spent just $3.55M. The DCCC had $26M in the bank at the end of March.

The NRCC, on the other hand, raised $8M in March, one of their best months to date. Still, the party ended with month with $10M in the bank.

The $16M financial advantage Dems enjoy is the largest to date, an increase over the $13M gap Dems held at the end of March.

Still, GOPers are optimistic they can close the gap, thanks in part to participation by their own members. GOP incumbents gave $2.3M in the first 2 months of the year, a much faster rate than members have achieved in previous years.

The NRCC will rely on Reps. Tom Cole (R-OK), a former NRCC chair, and Kevin Brady (R-TX), who are heading up the member donation program.

For more historical context, check out our clip and saves of DCCC and NRCC fundraising.

Amid a turbulent political climate, many Dem members of Congress held off polling their districts during the first quarter, hoping to get a more accurate look at the landscape before they begin their '10 campaigns in earnest.

Pollsters and House Dem leaders have warned incumbents that results they received during the height of the health care debate would not present an accurate picture of the electorate. While benchmark polls are usually taken early in the cycle, FEC reports show most of the Dem caucus took that advice.

Tellingly, those who decided to poll anyway have not released results, suggesting those polls show them performing poorly against their potential or generic GOP rivals.

The list of incumbents who paid pollsters last quarter includes both vulnerable freshmen, like Reps. Debbie Halvorson (D-IL) and Harry Teague (D-NM), and entrenched incumbents, like Reps. David Obey (D-WI) and Earl Pomeroy (D-ND).

None of the half dozen Dems who appear to have polled last quarter released their results. Halvorson, who spent $17.5K at the Dem polling firm Anzalone Liszt on Feb. 10, denied through a spokesman that her campaign had conducted a poll. It was, the spokesman said, payment for past polling expenses.

Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) has spent the most on polling this cycle, blowing through $42K for 2 surveys conducted by Cooper Secrest Associates. Donnelly's campaign declined to comment on his poll results. Meanwhile, Obey spent $30K for a Feb. poll conducted by Hart Research Associates, the well-regarded Dem firm, and Pomeroy spent another $20K there for a Jan. poll.

Sometimes, though, polls can lead to action. Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO), who commissioned a poll last quarter, has since begun employing an opposition research firm. Skelton will face the winner of a GOP primary in which ex-state Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R) is seen as the front-runner.

Candidates frequently release benchmark polls to the public if they show strong results -- or even if they only show the slimmest possibility that a contender may win. We've heard rumors of polls, conducted during the health care debate, that show incumbent Dems in terrible shape. It remains notable, though, that more GOPers haven't produced their own polls showing the same.

Updated: Halvorson's campaign paid a past due bill. We have updated this post to reflect that.

IN state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (R) is a decided underdog in the race to replace retiring Sen. Evan Bayh (D), but today Stutzman is the talk of the town.

Stutzman, who hails from a town just south of the MI border, is up with his first ad of the cycle, casting himself as the real conservative choice in the GOP primary and as the only outsider in the race. His rivals, ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R) and ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R), each served time in DC.

And though he's the underdog, both in name recognition and in financial resources, Stutzman is getting noticed by national organizations. Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) endorsed Stutzman today, lending Stutzman conservative credentials and at least some fundraising help as he struggles to keep up with Coats and Hostettler.

"Marlin Stutzman reminds me of Marco Rubio in Florida. He has the same passion, the same love for his country, and the same courage to fight for it," DeMint said in a statement.

DeMint joins ACU chairman David Keene in backing the upstart Stutzman. Coats has support, informal at the moment, from the NRSC, which recruited him, while Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) made the rare public foray into the race to back Hostettler.

All 3 candidates have just a fortnight left to win over party support. Stutzman remains little-known outside his northern IN district. Hostettler, who represented the southwest corner of the state before losing in '06. And Coats, though the best-known of the 3, still hasn't been on a ballot since '92.

After the jump, check out Stutzman's first ad. Meanwhile, check out The Fix's look at DeMint's establishment-bucking habits, and what it means for the IN SEN race.

The Hotline's Amy Walter writes:

In the wake of national Tea Party protests and a new report by the Pew Research Center that finds Americans' trust in their government at historic lows, everyone is fascinated by the new role that anger seems to be playing in politics. But this kind of anger at government isn't new. In fact, the Pew poll finds a precedent: 2006.

The difference is that four years ago, it was liberal Democrats who were angry, not conservative Republicans. Our country has not gotten angrier; the spirit has just switched sides.

...

The problem for Democrats now is that angry people vote. In the Pew poll, 51 percent of Republicans and 59 percent of Republican-leaning independent voters describe themselves as "highly dissatisfied" with the federal government. Among Democrats it's just 9 percent. Meanwhile, 83 percent of those "highly dissatisfied" Republicans say they are "absolutely certain" to vote this fall, while just 63 percent of "dissatisfied" Democrats are as motivated. The Tea Party may not be a representative sample of the electorate or even the GOP as a whole, but its anti-government message is one that will resonate among those who are the most committed to voting.

It's also important to recognize that the Tea Party activists as a whole aren't looking to build a third party. In the recent New York Times/CBS survey of self-identified Tea Party types, just 40 percent wanted to see a third party, compared to 46 percent of the electorate overall.

That, of course, is the reason why most GOP candidates have been eager to embrace the Tea Party groups in any way they can.

Read the whole column here.

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) is launching a new ad hitting Rep. Joe Sestak (D) over his career in the Navy and in Congress, the first attack ads Specter has issued during the contentious primary battle.

The ad comes the same day Sestak is firing his own first shots. Sestak's spot, a minute-long bio ad, calls him "the Democrat running against Arlen Specter."

Specter has already been on the air with his own positive spots, which he launched last week. Specter used those ads to tout his ability to bring jobs and federal money back to his home state.

Specter's first attack ad, "Resume":

After the jump, check out Sestak's first positive spot.

MA Gov. Deval Patrick (D) is in dire political straits, but an independent candidate's presence in this year's midterms could save the embattled Patrick from the ignomity of defeat in deep blue MA, a new survey shows.

The Western New England College Polling Institute survey interviewed 481 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.5%. Patrick, ex-health care executive Charlie Baker (R) and Treas. Tim Cahill (I) were tested.

GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUP
         All Dem GOP Ind
Patrick  34% 66%  3% 26%
Cahill   29  17  32  35
Baker    27   6  64  29

Patrick shouldn't have much room to maneuver; just 34% of registered voters approve of his job performance, while 48% disapprove, and only 30% say the state is going in the right direction (60% say it's on the wrong track). Even Patrick's personal ratings are lousy -- voters have an unfavorable opinion of Patrick by a 48%-40% margin.

Still, independent candidates have a way of throwing ordinarily predictable elections into chaos. Cahill, elected as a Dem in '06, is trying to run to Baker's right in order to peel off enough independent and GOP votes to form a winning coalition. Baker, widely touted by national GOPers as a strong candidate, would benefit from a clean shot at Patrick, but Cahill won't let that happen.

Both Cahill and Baker have toom to grow their vote share. Cahill is undefined in the minds of 45% of state voters, while 62% of MA voters either don't know or don't have an opinion of Baker.

But if the race comes down to a turnout operation, Patrick's ability to consolidate his vote total among Dems could be key to his ability to sneak through to a second term.

"World News" led with the decision to resume some flights out of Europe. "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with the ash and the possibility of another Icelandic volcano eruption.

Sen. John McCain (R) went on the "O'Reilly Factor" 4/19 p.m.

McCain, on the Obama admin.: "There has never been any real outreach for bipartisanship by this administration. They came with 60 votes, which they don't have anymore. Overwhelming majority in the House. And they have decided they would drive things through. Hopefully to pick up a Republican senator or two. But the fact is, there has never been genuine outreach to try to get things done on a bipartisan basis."

More McCain, on the differences between the Obama and Bill Clinton admins: "Listen, we had some very spirited discussions and disputes with President Clinton. But when the time came, he sat down. ... We did welfare reform. We did a number of other reforms. We had balance budget agreements. We had a number of other agreements that we were able to reach. This administration has decided, again, on financial regulatory reform, just drive it through and see if the Republicans go along. And there has not been real negotiation. I know it when I see it. I have done it. And it's not there with this administration."

After the jump, more from McCain, and questions for ex-NY Gov. Eliot Spitzer (D).

Good Tuesday morning. The Space Shuttle Discovery is on its way back to earth after a 15-day journey. There are just 3 scheduled shuttle flights left after Discovery's return. After scrubbing the first landing attempt, the second try would see Discovery setting down at the Kennedy Space Center at 9:08 a.m. ET.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter in politics today:

REPS. TOM COLE AND KEVIN BRADY: The OK GOPer, who headed the NRCC last cycle, and the TX GOPer will lead efforts to solicit cash contributions from their fellow incumbents. That's going to be a key component as the NRCC aims to reduce the financial advantage the DCCC holds. Today, when the NRCC and DCCC have to report their March monthly totals, we'll know just how tall a task Cole and Brady face.

"I think the money problem is righting itself as the political climate improves," Cole told Hotline OnCall in an interview yesterday. "We have opportunities than we've had since '94 in a single election cycle. I tell members, 'We will gain more seats this year than any other time in your entire career unless you were here in '94,' and that's whether we get the majority or not."

The question Cole and Brady will help answer is just how much money GOPers will have to take advantage of those opportunities. Dems have historically been more generous contributors to the DCCC than GOPers have been to the NRCC, but GOPers really closed their wallets during the '06 and '08 cycles, when they felt threatened enough to hoard their cash. If the same thing happens to Dems this year, the NRCC has a chance to close the gap.

By the way, be sure to bookmark our clip and save charts of DCCC and NRCC fundraising. We'll update them as soon as we have new numbers today.

REP. JOE SESTAK: He has more than $5.25M in the bank, but so far the most notable part of Sestak's campaign has been his absence from the airwaves. Today, exactly 4 weeks out from his primary against Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), Sestak is finally hitting the air with a mix of positive bio spots and anti-Specter attack ads.

But has Sestak waited too long to start his assault? He's running against an entrenched incumbent, has very little institutional support and is barely known outside his suburban Philly-based district. Since he's waited so long, that $5M he's been sitting on may not go as far as it once could have. Specter started advertising last week, focusing on job creation and his ability to bring home the bacon. Sestak will have to start simply by introducing himself to the electorate.

Former MI GOP chair Saul Anuzis, who ran unsuccessfully for RNC chair in '09, is seeking a new spot on the national committee.

Anuzis announced he would run for a seat being vacated by the Rev. Keith Butler, who said last week he would skip the end of his term to attend to his duties at his church in the Detroit suburbs.

"I'm running to fill a vacancy as the Michigan RNC National Committeeman...should be fun!" Anuzis wrote on his Twitter feed on Monday.

Anuzis ran for RNC chairman touting his technology credentials and expertise at social media. He dropped his bid after 5 of the 6 rounds of voting last year, leaving only the eventual winner, RNC chair Michael Steele, and ex-SC GOP chair Katon Dawson to fight it out over the final votes.

He left the state GOP shortly after the vote and went to work for American Solutions, the group run by ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich.

He also became a close Steele ally, helping reorganize the committee's approach to technology in politics. And if Steele decides not to run again, Anuzis could decide to take a second shot at leading the RNC.

With his resounding win at last weekend's MA GOP convo in Worcester, ex-Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO/ex-MA HHS/Finance sec. Charlie Baker (R) sidestepped what could have been a distracting GOV primary battle against '06 indie candidate/ex-MA Turnpike Authority board member Christy Mihos (R).

But as the convo dust settles, an even bigger distraction looms for Baker -- Treas. Tim Cahill (I), who is attempting to woo voters away from Baker as the two challenge Gov. Deval Patrick (D) for the corner office this fall.

Cahill, an ex-Dem who is seeking to appeal to anti-Patrick voters with a message of fiscal conservatism, is basically tied with Baker -- behind Patrick -- in the polls. A new Western New England College poll, conducted 4/11-15, shows Patrick leading the three-way matchup at 34%, ahead of of both Cahill's 29% and Baker, who followed with 29% and 27%, respectively. The survey showed Cahill taking an impressive 32% of GOP support from Baker.

Last weekend, Cahill worked to continue to make inroads with GOPers, showing up unexpectedly on the sidelines of the GOP confab to try to make a play for Baker supporters.

"A lot of people are not committed to the Republican nominee," Cahill told the Boston Herald as he rallied a small group of supporters bearing "Charlie who?" signs outside the convo.

He was clad in a barn jacket -- which is apparently all the rage among "outsider" candidates in MA these days.

Cahill was also the only one of the three candidates to attend last week's Tea Party rally, where ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) made an appearance.

MA GOPers appear to be of two minds on how to approach Cahill's candidacy. Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA), who was the keynote speaker at the weekend convo, made no mention of Cahill in his remarks, instead training his sights on Patrick.

But Baker used his speech at the convo to tie Cahill and Patrick together as Beacon Hill insiders who are responsible for the state's current fiscal woes.

"If one of these two insiders wins in November," Baker told the Worcester crowd, "they'll just do what they've done for the past four years -- wring their hands about cutting services to the bone, while they back their trucks up to the loading dock of state government and fill it up to feather their cronies' and their special interests' nests on your dime."

While no indie has ever been elected gov. in MA, Cahill's war chest ensures that he'll continue to be a serious factor in the race -- he currently sits on a hefty $3.3M, dwarfing Patrick's $900K and even trumping Baker's impressive $2M+.

We've picked over the House numbers, so let's take a look at the Senate FEC reports and the first quarter's winners and losers:

WINNERS

Ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio: A few months ago, we heard rumors that Rubio's fundraising had dried up. Then, over the last 3 months, he goes and pulls in $3.66M -- more than any candidate aside from self-funding ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) in CT. Rubio's haul and his cash on hand -- at $3.9M, he's even catapulted above Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) -- make him the big winner this quarter.

Ex-Rep. Rob Portman: The OH SEN candidate pulled in almost $2.4M last quarter, and he's stockpiled $7.6M so far, the most of any challenger candidate. Meanwhile, LG Lee Fisher (D) raised just $553K and has $1.8M in the bank -- and we haven't heard a peep out of Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D). Portman is likely to dramatically outspend the eventual nominee in the key swing state.

CT AG Richard Blumenthal: After jumping into the race last quarter, pressed into federal service before he may have been ready, Blumenthal raised a strong $1.88M and still has $1.6M to play with. He's likely to face a well-financed GOPer either way, but facing McMahon would mean he's all but guaranteed to be outspent. Still, Blumenthal has money of his own, making him a formidable contender.

Sens. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and John McCain (R-AZ): Faced with new, stronger challengers who emerged last quarter, both Boxer and McCain turned on the fundraising jets. Boxer took in just shy of $2.5M, while McCain crossed the $2.5M barrier by a few thousand dollars. Both candidates are likely to be able to outspend their rivals.

After the jump, our fundraising losers.

Americans view their government with far more skepticism and far less trust than they have at almost any point in time, according to a new Pew Research Center poll. And that's going to help GOPers come the midterm elections.

Voters have long been frustrated with government, according to Pew data over more than a decade. In Oct. '97, 56% of voters said they felt frustrated by the federal government, the same level as today. In fact, after reaching an apex just after the '01 terrorist attacks, satisfaction with government has fallen steadily over the rest of the decade.

But voters are increasingly angry with what they see in DC; 21% now classify themselves as angry, up from 12% a decade ago and 8% in '01. And there is a close correlation between trust in government and the number of seats that switch hands in Nov.

"In general, when trust falls steeply incumbents are more likely to lose -- and the president's party tends to lose the most," the study authors write.

GENERIC CONGRESSIONAL BALLOT
               Now Ind 4/06 7/94
Generic Dem    44% 34% 51%  47%
Generic GOPer  44  41  41   45

RE-ELECT YOUR MEMBER OF CONGRESS?
               Now 2/08 11/06 11/94
Yes            43% 60%   55%   58%
No             32  22    25    25
Don't know     24  17    19    16

More than a dozen GOP challengers outraised their Dem rivals in the first quarter, according to FEC reports filed last week, giving the party a few bright spots in what has otherwise been a bleak fundraising climate.

In some cases, the members outraised include the NRCC's top targets. Rep. Harry Teague (D-NM) raised $132K last quarter, while ex-Rep. Steve Pearce (R) pulled in $277K; Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH) raised $308K as her rival, state Sen. Steve Stivers (R), raised $367K.

Teague and Kilroy both have cash on hand leads over their challengers ($927K for Teague, $708K for Pearce; $878K for Kilroy, $793K for Stivers). But those aren't wide leads, lending to the perception that Teague and Kilory, both freshmen, will have some of the most difficult re-election races this fall.

And some Dems who don't expect difficult races were surprised by their rivals' hauls. Rep. Gene Taylor (D-MS) raised only $40K last quarter and had just $223K in the bank. State Rep. Steven Palazzo (R) raised $125K. Police officer Ilario Pantano (R) raised $103K, besting Rep. Mike McIntyre (D-NC) last quarter. Even though Taylor and McIntyre are still overwhelming favorites, GOPers will still crow that no Dem is safe.

But beware of some over-inflated numbers: Several GOP candidates are using direct mail, a method that costs nearly as much money as it brings in. That leads to misleading numbers; for example, Iraq war vet Allen West (R), running against Rep. Ron Klein (D-FL), raised $838K last quarter, but he spent more than half -- $423K.

After the jump, some more GOP highlights from the first quarter.

Top GOP officials in DC now believe it is a virtual certainty that FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) will bolt the GOP and run instead as an independent, sources tell Hotline OnCall.

Over the weekend, Crist pulled TV advertisements that had been running in key markets, slamming ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R). Those ads, on which Crist spent close to $1.5M so far, were aimed at moving poll numbers that showed Crist losing badly.

In taking the ads down, top GOP officials have surmised both that Crist has made his decision to run as an independent, and that the attacks weren't having an impact on the race.

Privately, GOP officials have even tried to broach the idea that Crist drop out of the race. NRSC chair John Cornyn called Crist on Friday, intending to make it clear that Crist should drop out if he doesn't believe he can win a party primary. Crist did not answer the phone, a source close to Cornyn said, and as of today Cornyn's call hasn't been returned.

Party leaders spent the weekend sending more overt warnings. Cornyn told Politico last week Crist would be ending his GOP career by running as an independent, while Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell told CNN Crist would lose party backing if he leaves.

Instead of from party leaders, insiders believe Crist is getting advice from Sen. George LeMieux (R), the man Crist hopes to replace. LeMieux ran Crist's '06 GOV race and has served as his top aide in the past.

LeMieux has denied he knows anything about a potential party switch. During a conference call with reporters last week, LeMieux told Hotline OnCall he expected Crist to run as a GOPer, comments he echoed this morning.

FL AG Bill McCollum (R) and CFO Alex Sink (D) are in a neck-and-neck fight for the Sunshine State, a new Quinnipiac Univ. poll out this morning shows.

The survey, conducted April 8-13, tested 1,250 FL voters for a margin of error of +/- 2.8%. Sink was tested against McCollum and state Sen. Paula Dockery (R).

GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUP
           All Dem GOP Ind
McCollum   40%  7% 83% 37%
Sink       36  73   5  28

Sink       37  69   9  29
Dockery    28   6  59  26

Sink has closed the gap since the last Quinnipiac poll, released Jan. 27, when she trailed by 10 points. But both candidates are still unknown by huge segments of the economy; fully 41% don't know enough about McCollum to rate him, while a whopping 61% say they don't know enough about Sink to weigh in.

McCollum's effort to sue the federal government over the health care overhaul is going to be a good move during a GOP primary, but in general, voters don't favor his mission. Fully 54% -- including 53% of independents -- said filing the lawsuit was a bad idea, while just 40% said it was a good idea. 41% of indie voters said the suit would make them less likely to vote for McCollum this Nov.

Could MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) be the Mike Huckabee of 2012?

As Pawlenty travels the country laying the groundwork for a potential WH '12 bid, what may serve to be one of his greatest assets -- his religion -- has been largely overlooked by both the national media and the Pawlenty camp itself.

That appeal could prove to be key in IA, where social conservatives' influence in the GOV GOP primary is being viewed as a harbinger of the force they'll have in the 2012 GOP caucuses.

Though he generally takes an understated approach to his religion on the trail, Pawlenty is a member of the Wooddale Church in Eden Prairie, MN, a non-denominational Christian church whose pastor, Leith Anderson, also happens to be pres. of the 30M-member National Association of Evangelicals. Pawlenty, who was raised Roman Catholic, became an evangelical Christian in '87 when he married his wife, Mary, with Anderson presiding. Mary Pawlenty -- herself a well-known figure in MN's evangelical community -- remains active as a trustee at her alma mater, Bethel College, a conservative evangelical school just outside the Twin Cities.

This background rarely, if ever, finds its way into Pawlenty's stump speech. The MN gov. and RGA vice chair spends ample time detailing his blue-collar upbringing in the meatpacking town of South St. Paul, the son of a truck driver and a housewife. In detailing his 4 principles for conservatives to follow, he notes that the first is that "God's in charge." But by and large, his remarks to party faithful usually center on fiscal restraint and the need for the GOP to become the party of "Sam's Club Republicans" rather than on social issues.

Even in his debut at last year's Values Voter Summit in DC -- an event where WH hopefuls tend to play up their personal religious experience -- Pawlenty touched only lightly on the role of his faith in his life.

Pawlenty spokesperson Alex Conant said the MN gov. has yet to make any formal outreach to social conservative orgs., noting that Pawlenty is focused on helping elect '10 candidates and that it's "premature for that sort of organizing for 2012." Pawlenty has, however, made a point of reaching out to other groups -- notably, young GOPers and Hispanics -- since he announced almost a year ago that he won't seek a third term as gov.

Interviews with IA GOPers who met with Pawlenty during his stop in Des Moines over the weekend -- his second visit to the state in recent months -- indicate that Pawlenty could be letting one of his biggest assets in a WH '12 bid go untapped.

IA GOP central committee member Kim Lehman, who is also an RNC national committee member and the president of IA Right to Life, said she was "very impressed" with Pawlenty when he sat down with state central committee members Saturday for a Q&A before giving a speech at an Iowans for Tax Relief event in Des Moines.

Asked whether she knew about Pawlenty's evangelical background, Lehman replied: "I didn't know about that, but it explains why he has a compass." She called Pawlenty a "statesman" in the vein of Rep. Steve King (R-IA), and cited Pawlenty's commitment to balancing the state budget and his success in "reaching people" beyond the GOP base in MN as examples of how his "compass" guided his tenure as gov.

Good Monday morning. For anyone who's found themselves starving late at night in Adams Morgan, the Travel Channel featured a battle between the city's most famous jumbo slice purveyors this weekend. We recommend watching, if only for the candid interviews with tipplers out to satisfy a late-night hunger.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter in politics this week:

PRES. OBAMA: Obama travels to CA today for 3 fundraising events with Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), who polls suggest is locked in a tough re-election battle for a fourth term. If Boxer truly needs Obama's help, Dems are seriously in trouble, although most political observers make Boxer the clear front-runner in her bid against the winner of what is already a heated GOP primary.

It's the latest in a series of out-of-DC trips Obama is making after learning a valuable lesson from health care reform: He does best on the stump, and the megaphone of the presidency is worth using to push an agenda. The latest on the list is financial regulatory reform (more on that in a minute). Obama is slated to travel the country, much like he did during the health care debate, to sell the notion that the bill offers a stark choice between those who support Main Street and those who support Wall Street.

But that's not the only thing occupying Obama's thoughts as he heads West. On his long flight to CA, Obama also has to consider who he's going to appoint to Justice John Paul Stevens' seat. With that decision likely close at hand, Obama -- and the rest of DC -- is in for another very long week.

SEN. CHRIS DODD: In what will likely be his final major effort as a legislator, Dodd is expected to bring regulatory reform to the Senate floor this week. The bill passed on a party-line vote out of the Senate Banking Committee last month without amendments, after GOPers agreed to alter the bill on the floor. The House has already passed its version of a regulatory bill, meaning a conference committee showdown comes next.

But now, the GOP looks like it's balking. Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell and his fellow GOPers have penned a letter to Dems urging them to reopen negotiations instead of amending the bill on the floor. GOPers will argue the bill perpetuates the bailout culture, something that could rile up a Tea Party base already sensitive to the notion of government aid to struggling sectors.

That means, like health care reform, the admin and Senate Dems will have to turn to key GOPers to try to win over their support. In an appearance on MSNBC on Friday, Sen. Jack Reed (D-RI) said he had hopes for wooing 3 GOPers -- Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME), Judd Gregg (R-NH) and Bob Corker (R-TN). Today, Collins meets with Treas. Sec. Tim Geithner to talk about the bill. Unlike health care reform, which passed the Senate with 60 Dem votes, Dem efforts to win at least token bipartisanship will have to work this time.

The Honolulu Advertiser endorsed ex-Rep. Ed Case (D) in its editions today, two weeks before officials begin mailing out ballots in the HI-01 special election.

Writing that Case's election would signal that HI "is still more comfortable with Democrats, but not with the status quo" -- which the paper believes is represented by state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa (D) -- the endorsement also highlights the Dem problem in the 3-way, winner-take-all contest.

Because the two Dems threaten to split the Dem vote and allow Honolulu Councilor Charles Djou (R) to win the heavily Dem CD with a plurality -- indeed a Research 2000 poll released late last week showed Djou barely topping the field -- Dems have reportedly considered backing Case. They believe his name ID would give him a stronger chance.

But Hanabusa's supporters have fought back, as she's getting campaign help from Sen. Daniel Inouye's (D) staff, and an Asian-American group has criticized Dems for considering an endorsement of Case over the Asian-American Hanabusa. Moreover, some in the Dem base believe Case is too moderate.

In that vein, the Advertiser's endorsement may not help Case. It credited him with being a "pariah" of the Dem-controlled state legislature's leadership, and also point out his objections to some parts of the new health care law. While that should help him with independents, it's not what engenders him to some factions of the liberal base.

But Case has always been popular with independents (in the recent Research 2000 poll, he held a nominal lead among that group), and the Advertiser's endorsement should give him more fodder with which to convince those voters to stick with him. If they start to float toward Djou, the GOPer will be the favorite.

Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) returned to MA on Saturday to deliver a rousing speech to a state GOP revitalized by his historic win in Jan.

But even as he rallied the GOP faithful around ex-Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO Charlie Baker (R), the frontrunner in the GOV GOP primary, Brown went relatively easy on Gov. Deval Patrick (D) and national Dems, delivering a speech that -- much like his SEN candidacy -- was high on positivity, low on red meat and even included an acknowledgment of the Dems and indies who helped propel him to victory.

Brown opened with a new take on his now-famous campaign trail mantra.

"As you may recall, I'm Scott Brown, I'm from Wrentham and I still drive a truck!" Brown said according to his prepared remarks, adding that only now, his GMC Canyon is "parked outside our U.S. Capitol, and I'm there now as your United States Senator."

He boiled down his "blueprint" for candidates who want to reproduce his success: drive a pick-up truck, get a barn jacket (and "wear it all the time -- on the campaign trail, on dates with your spouse, to bed, out jogging") and "don't be shy about pulling out those old Cosmo pictures from almost 30 years ago."

And he continued to hit on his "people's seat" theme, telling the 3.3K GOP delegates assembled in Worcester that "because of you, and many Democrats and Independents, we were able to turn a fledgling little campaign into an overwhelming people's movement -- at one of the most important times in American politics."

Brown then took on the DC and MA establishment, noting that they're both "making the same mistakes" of raising taxes and going on a "reckless spending spree." Much as he did in his own bid, he focused on the need to achieve "balance" on Beacon Hill.

Brown: "Higher and higher taxes, rising unemployment, chronic budget deficits, corruption, cronyism and patronage -- this is the sad legacy of the one-party political monopoly in Massachusetts."

He charged that like Pres. Obama, Patrick "campaigned on 'change,' but change isn't always a good thing." Patrick, Brown told the crowd, "changed" ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's (R) "operating surpluses into a deficit," and "changed" GOPers' "no-new-tax policy" into "higher taxes on everything from hotel rooms, to beer and wine, to restaurant meals."

"That is not the kind of change we need," he said.

Brown's address comes three months after his stunning Jan. upset and at a time of marked enthusiasm among MA GOPers. This year, the state party has fielded 175 candidates for statewide office, according to MA GOP comm. dir. Tarah Donoghue -- up from just 52 two years ago.

We learned a lot this week: Charlie Crist commited GOP seppuku, Mitt Romney may have waved his chances goodbye already, and the downsides of being a business person. That and more in the weekly roundup from Hotline staff.

-- Here's an irony for you: Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) said last year that the health care debate would be Pres. Obama's Waterloo. Now several prominent GOPers tell us Romney's CommonwealthCare is so close to the ObamaCare everyone will run against in '12 that Romney's bid may be over before it begins. Health care may not be Obama's Waterloo, but it could be Romney's -- the man DeMint endorsed in '08.

-- We learned Crist has a backbone. Instead of pursuing a losing GOP race and living to run another day, Crist's veto of a teacher tenure bill this week was the clearest indication he'll run as an independent. Knowing he will lose support from the NRSC, and likely to lose top aides and consultants, Crist looks like he's going for it anyway. It's a bold move -- and probably the only one Crist could make that gives him a shot at a Senate seat next year.

-- What Crist got in return for vetoing the bill: A credible way to position himself as an "outsider," not to mention near-hero status in the eyes of the state's teachers unions, as well as some conservatives who thought the bill would take away too much power from local governments. As the post-veto polling comes in, we'll be watching to see if that new support translates into a boost in a three-way matchup -- something Crist, for all his claims to the contrary, will be eyeing, too.

-- Dems have a clear monetary advantage -- but is it really enough? At this point in '08, the DCCC had $37M more than the NRCC. Today, the gap is just $14M, and this time around, Dems are going to have to play a lot more defense. (Don't miss our clip-and-save charts of party fundraising for the DCCC, the NRCC, the NRSC, the DSCC, the RNC and the DNC).

-- Revenge is a dish best served cold. So goes the saying. Sen. Jim Bunning's (R-KY) endorsement this week of ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R), a year after he encouraged Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) to get in the race, was ice cold. But it wasn't Grayson Bunning was aiming at; backing Paul amounts to a full-on slap in the face at Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell -- once Bunning's closest friend in the Senate.

-- The DCCC is going to a tried and true page in the playbook to begin hitting businessman Tim Burns (R) -- attacking him for supporting a national sales tax. The DCCC still thinks the issue is toxic for GOPers; they believe similar ads last cycle helped them defeat ex-Reps. Tim Walberg (R-MI) and Mike Sodrel (R-IN).

-- The logic is sound: Running a business person for office is a good idea, because they can talk about jobs and the economy. But in reality, business is a nasty, well, business. Lawsuits abound, and everyone gets sucked in. Ex-WWE CEO/CT SEN candidate Linda McMahon (R) already knew that. Now, ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) is fighting to distance herself from a government investigation into bribes the company allegedly paid to get business in Russia during her tenure.

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) will endorsed ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) in Tampa on Monday, dealing another blow to FL Gov. Charlie Crist's (R) flagging campaign.

A source close to Romney's political team told Hotline OnCall that Romney wanted to appear with Rubio at the last minute so as to do the most harm to Crist -- to be "the straw that breaks the camel's back," the source said.

Romney is the second former WH'08 candidate to make a high-profile endorsement of Rubio over FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R), joining ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R), who endorsed Rubio last week. Romney, Giuliani and others in the WH'08 field were stung when Crist endorsed Sen. John McCain (R) just before the '08 FL primary, renegging on a pledge to stay neutral in the contest.

Rubio had endorsed ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) during the WH'08 primary.

Promoted from earlier.

Updated: In an interview Friday afternoon, ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich said that he plans to endorse Rubio "when the time is right."

He said he thought ex-Sen. Connie Mack (R) sent the right signal Thursday night when he backed out as Crist's campaign chair as a direct reaction to Crist's veto of a teacher tenure overhaul.

"If he tried to run as an independent with the endorsement of the teachers' union, people would see that as exactly the kind of corrupt politics that they're sick of in Washington," he said. "For a governor to do that would be a total betrayal of the public trust, because it would be clear then that it was a cynical deal."

Asked what Crist does now, Gingrich answered, "He loses," agreeing that the governor will fade away from the political scene. "Crist put himself in a position to infuriate his party at a time when there was a remarkably attractive and effective alternative," he said, adding that Rubio "is clearly one of the smartest young conservative leaders in America."

Gingrich's position is motivated largely by the education veto, too. He released a statement denouncing Crist's veto decision and had previously penned an opinion piece in the Orlando Sentinel praising the bill.

On Friday he said, "The governor sent his staff to testify in favor of the bill. The governor had months to fix this bill. ... For the governor to veto this, I think, betrays every person in Florida and the country who's committed to education reform. And to do it at the last minute with no warning - I've no Charlie since 1994. I think if he tries to run as an independent in this setting, he will look absurd, and people will be enraged, and he will get very few votes. He will run third, and a bad third."

As for whether Crist could switch back into the governor's race, Gingrich said there may have been a time when he could have done that, but that the time has passed. "Politics doesn't work based on one person's ego needs. Other people get to run, too."

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts Treasury Sec. Timothy Geithner. The roundtable features Sen. Marsha Blackburn (R-TN), PA Gov. Ed Rendell (D), National Journal's Ron Brownstein and Telemundo's Jose Diaz-Balart.

Face the Nation hosts Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA).

This Week hosts Bill Clinton. The roundtable features Washington Post's George Will, Dem strategist Donna Brazile, Bloomberg's Al Hunt and Wall Street Journal's Kim Strassel.

Fox News Sunday hosts Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and Top U.S. cmdr. in Iraq/Gen. Ray Odierno. The roundtable features FNC's Brit Hume, NPR's Mara Liasson, Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell, Sen. Mark Warner (D-VA), Reuters' Chrystia Freeland and economist Mark Zandi.

See other weekend shows after the jump.

Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid may have hoped that the presence of a Tea Party candidate would save him, but a new survey shows he would still lose a multi-candidate race.

The Mason-Dixon poll, conducted for the Las Vegas Review Journal, surveyed 625 regular voters between April 5-7 for a margin of error of +/- 3.9%. Reid was tested against ex-state Sen./ex-NV GOP chair Sue Lowden (R), Tea Party candidate Scott Ashjian, Independent American Party candidate Tim Fasano and independent candidates Michael Harris, Jesse Holland, Jeffrey Reaves and Will Stand. NV voters also have the option of casting a ballot for "None of these candidates."

GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUP
           All Dem GOP Ind
Lowden     47% 15% 84% 49%
Reid       37  70   4  27
Fasano      3   2   2   6
Ashjian     2   2   2   3
Harris     --  --  --  --
Holland    --  --  --  --
Reaves     --  --  --  --
Stand      --  --  --  --
None        3   3   1   5

Reid's allies hoped Ashjian, especially, would help pull support away from Lowden or whomever the eventual GOP nominee happens to be. And GOPers were worried enough to take the issue to court; yesterday, a state judge ruled Ashjian could remain on the ballot under the Tea Party banner.

And indeed, Ashjian's presence gives Reid a slightly wider path to victory: If Reid and his allies can somehow make Ashjian look like a credible contender -- think Jon Corzine's use of indie candidate Chris Daggett in '09 -- Ashjian may pick up some significant share of the vote.

At the moment, that hasn't happened. What's more, the eventual nominee can look to the RGA, which ran ads aimed at quashing Daggett's rise in NJ and helped GOPer Chris Christie beat Corzine, for tips on how to fight back against a third-party contender.

Members of the House and Senate committees responsible for overseeing financial regulatory reform have taken thousands of dollars from Goldman Sachs, the venerable investment firm hit with charges of fraud on Friday.

Investigators at the FEC filed a civil complaint against Goldman on Friday, alleging the company did not disclose conflicts of interest over mortgage investments it sold. Investors lost more than $1B in a mortgage securities firm, according to the complaint.

The news sent the stock market tumbling on Friday, hurting banking stocks and sending shares of Goldman plunging 11%.

Goldman Sachs, which would be subject to new regulations if the House and Senate can agree on a reform package, is a major contributor to Congressional campaigns. So far this year, Goldman employees have given more than $520K to candidates for Congress, including $332K to Dem candidates and $190K to GOPers.

Most top recipients of Goldman cash sit on the committees that pushed through reform packages earlier this year. Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the fourth-ranking Dem on the Senate Banking Committee, has received $22K and Sen. Richard Shelby (R-AL), the top GOPer on the panel took $34K from Goldman, according to data compiled by the Center for Responsive Politics.

On the House side, Rep. Jim Himes (D-CT) took $15K; Paul Hodes (D-NH) recieved $13K; and Melissa Bean (D-IL) took $9K from Goldman employees and associates. All 3 sit on the House Financial Services Committee.

Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D-NY) has accepted $23K in Goldman money, while Rep. Mike McMahon (D-NY) received the most of any member of Congress -- $50K. Neither Gillibrand nor Murphy sit on the relevant committees.

GOPers were quick to jump on the complaint, bashing 76 members for supporting the financial regulatory reform bill, which the minority has derided as creating a "permanent bailout fund." Goldman Sachs had said it supported the bill.

"With his party pushing hard for a permanent bailout bill in the coming weeks, [Rep. Paul] Kanjorski owes Pennsylvania taxpayers an answer," said NRCC spokesman Ken Spain in a template that went to the target districts. "Will he support a bill that creates permanent bailouts for Goldman Sachs and other Wall Street giants, or is he prepared to finally start focusing on job creation for the middle-class families he represents?"

Several staffers once with Organizing for America, Pres. Obama's political wing, have left in recent weeks to hit the trail, sources tell Hotline OnCall.

The staffers -- 8 in total -- have left to work for Dem campaigns and campaign arms, ranging from Rep. Baron Hill's (D-IN) re-election bid to the DCCC.

Reps. Betsy Markey (D-CO) and Debbie Halvorson (D-IL) recently picked up OFA staffers, as did Iraq war vet Tommy Sowers (D), who is challenging Rep. Jo Ann Emerson (R-MO). OH Gov. Ted Strickland (D) also hired a former OFA aide, and 2 more are working for Dem coordinated efforts in IN and IA.

Dems at the state party level have complained that OFA staffers in their states have worked outside the party apparatus. But in recent months, OFA mounted a major push to get wavering members of Congress to vote in favor of health care legislation, an effort that some credit with helping persuade a sufficient number of members to vote for the bill.

Now, an OFA official said, the members who voted in favor of the bill have been rewarded. Members like Markey, Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA) and Sens. Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Russ Feingold (D-WI) each saw fundraising surges after the measure passed.

Honolulu city councillor Charles Djou (R) narrowly leads the 3-way race against 2 Dems, according to a new survey from the liberal DailyKos website.

The poll, conducted by the independent firm Research 2000, surveyed 500 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.5%. Djou was tested against ex-Rep. Ed Case (D) and state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa (D).

GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUP
          All Dem GOP Ind
Djou      32%  5% 72% 28%
Case      29  44   8  29
Hanabusa  28  46   4  28

Pollsters have long noted the difficulty of polling in HI; Markos Moulitsas points to a Roll Call story suggesting Asian voters especially could be seriously under-represented. Indeed, the sample size in the Kos poll is 38% Asian and 33% white. According to the Almanac of American Politics, the district is nearly 53% Asian and only 19% white.

That could indicate that Djou's numbers are a little high. He wins 47% of the white vote, compared with 26% for Case and 17% for Hanabusa. The Dems run about 5 points ahead of Djou among Asian voters.

Case is the best-known of the 3 candidates, with a 47% favorable rating and a 25% unfav level. Djou (40% fav/27% unfav) is widely popular, while Hanabusa (37% fav/31% unfav) is less so.

The challengers Dems and GOPers tout as their best chances to take back House seats are delivering, according to FEC reports filed this week.

Young Guns, the top contenders in the NRCC's stable of challenger candidates, pulled in an average of $303K last quarter, while the DCCC's Red to Blue candidates raised an average of $302K.

Overall, the rookie Dems are in better shape than their GOP counterparts. The 13 Red to Blue candidates had an average of $742K in the bank, while the Young Guns had $628K on hand. But this quarter, just 3 of 10 Young Guns were outraised by their Dem rivals, while 8 of 13 Dems are running against GOPers who raised more last quarter.

On the Dem side, '06/'08 IL 10 nominee Dan Seals (D) raised more than any other R2B candidate, pulling in $637K. But Iraq war vet Rob Miller (D), running against Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC), still has the most on hand, thanks to the fundraising tear he went on after Wilson's outburst during Pres. Obama's address to a joint session of Congress in Sept.

Meanwhile, Polk Co. Elections Supervisor Lori Edwards (D) brought up the rear of the pack, raising just $68K last quarter. She has only $108K in the bank as she fights an uphill battle to replace outgoing Rep. Adam Putnam (R).

The strongest Young Gun, once again, was Iraq war vet Allen West (R), who raised $838K last quarter. West uses direct mail for most of his fundraising, which means his burn rate is abnormally high (He spent more than half of what he took in). Still, West has more than $1.1M in his race against Rep. Ron Klein (D-FL), more than any other Young Gun.

Montgomery city councilmember Martha Roby (R) raised the least of any other Young Gun, pulling in just $126K. She has $223K in the bank, about a third what Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL) has on hand.

More highlights and lowlights after the jump.

The GOP stands to make major gains in House this year, but can the party actually take control of the Speaker's gavel? Here's a look at 3 smart political analysts giving their take:

The Rothenberg Political Report: "Substantial Republican gains are inevitable, with net Democratic losses now looking to be at least two dozen. At this point, GOP gains of 25-30 seats seem likely, though considerably larger gains in excess of 40 seats certainly seem possible."

The Cook Political Report: "Combining its own race-by-race calculations with the results of national polls, The Cook Political Report officially projects a Republican gain of 30 to 40 seats. I suspect that the GOP will do even better if the trend over the past seven months continues," Charlie Cook writes in today's National Journal.

And House Race Hotline editor Tim Sahd: "We currently see Dem House losses of 25 to 35 seats, but considering the GOP momentum shows no signs of slowing, a 40+ GOP gain -- and with it, the majority -- isn't out of the question. Local and national polling confirms the GOP upsurge."

Tim explains: "Earlier this week, the Gallup weekly survey showed the GOP holding a 4% lead on the generic Congressional Ballot -- just the third time since '62 the party has held the lead on that question. And in individual CDs, public and private polling shows Dem incumbents (from veterans to freshmen) bearing the load of economic uneasiness and voter attitudes over the health care overhaul. Most of these vulnerable Dem incumbents are preparing by raising boatloads of cash, but even that will be able to save all of them from the GOP wave that appears to be crashing ashore."

MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) is using his new PAC to make friends and gain influence, according to quarterly FEC filings that show he handed out almost $30K to candidates last quarter.

That's much more than ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R), who handed out just $7.5K last quarter. But it's about half what ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) gave -- Romney contributed $58K to state and federal candidates.

Pawlenty donated to Sens. John McCain (R-AZ), Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and Chuck Grassley (R-IA), along with ND Gov. John Hoeven (R), Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) and ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) -- 3 top GOP SEN recruits. Pawlenty's Freedom First PAC also wrote a $10K check to the NRSC.

Pawlenty was only able to write checks totaling $2,400 to each candidate because he started his PAC so recently. FEC rules view a PAC as an individual -- therefore subject to an individual's spending limits -- for 6 months, until the PAC reaches 50 contributors and until it contributes to 5 federal candidates. The Freedom First PAC has now met those thresholds; on April 1, the PAC filed for multicandidate status.

Like Romney and Palin, Pawlenty has used his PAC to keep prominent advisors close. He paid New Frontier Strategy, advisor Phil Musser's firm, $27K last quarter, and web strategy consulting firm Hynes Communication an additional $5K.

In all, Pawlenty dished out a total of $57K for the advice and counsel of top strategists.

An influential conservative think tank is firing a broadside at ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R), criticizing the potential WH'12 contender for a health care plan they say looks identical to Pres. Obama's.

"When you run down this list of elements in the Obama plan and the Romney plan, they are all identical," says Michael Cannon, the Cato Institute's director of Health Policy Studies, in a new video running on the group's website. "Both the Romney plan and the Obama plan are essentially a government takeover of the health care sector of the economy."

Romney's signature achievement during his tenure in the Bay State, CommonwealthCare, has now become a serious liability for a potential WH'12 bid. Romney's approach was controversial among think tank conservatives then; now, with the spotlight on health care, some are convinced it will be a deal-breaker.

"As Pres. Obama himself has pointed out, Romney is the guy who created the prototype for Obamacare," said Cato executive VP David Boaz. "How can he lead the charge against a health care plan that is modeled on his own?"

Romney has pushed back hard, dismissing comparisons between the 2 plans as inaccurate.

"Pres. Obama has tried to compare Gov. Romney's plan to his own but there are important differences. Gov. Romney's plan is different because it didn't include a tax increase, and it didn't cut care to seniors, and most importantly, it is based on the premise that states should be free to pursue their own healthcare solutions," said Eric Fehrnstrom, a senior advisor to Romney's Free and Strong America PAC.

"Under Gov. Romney, Massachusetts solved the problem of the uninsured without raising taxes. Other states are free to copy what he did, or improve on it, or chart their own course, but we should reject a federal one-size-fits-all plan," Fehrstrom added.

But another shoe may yet drop. Earlier this week, Jon Kingsdale, the man hired to implement CommonwealthCare, stepped down, and he hinted in his letter of resignation that he may be headed to a more national platform.

"In my next venture, I hope to play some role in national healthcare reform and to continue working with each of you," Kingsdale wrote to his board of directors, according to the Washington Post. If Kingsdale is leaving Romney's health care program to take a role in Obama's, the GOP primary attack ads write themselves.

"A lot of times, Obama exaggerates this bipartisan idea, but in this particular case, Obama's got a point," Cato's Boaz says in the video. "RomneyCare did model a lot of the ideas that ended up being the framework for Obama's plan, and that's the connection Romney doesn't want people to see."

In fact, it's a connection, if made in the minds of GOP primary voters, that could derail Romney's entire bid.

After the jump, watch the Cato video in which Boaz and Cannon flay Romney's CommonwealthCare.

"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with the grounding of flights due to the Icelandic volcano eruption.

Ex-House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) went on "Your World" 4/15 p.m.

Rubio, on his father's health: "He's doing good. He's watching the program. So, say hello to him."

Rubio, on what he knows about whether Crist is "seriously entertaining" an indie run: "I don't know a lot about it. And I don't think a lot about it. ... I focus on the reasons why I'm running. And the bottom line is that both of the people I'm running against in this race, Congressman Kendrick Meek and Governor Charles Crist, have been supporters of the Obama agenda. And it's the reason why I'm running."

Rubio, on candidates who are "concerned about getting too close" to the Tea Party: "I can tell you that the Tea Parties have been good for America, over the last year-and-a-half especially. Had it not been for Tea Party, for example, my candidacy would have been impossible. ... The reason why I had a chance is because there are all kinds of people from all walks of life who were willing to support me when the establishment and many others in the press didn't think I had a chance. It's more important than that" (FNC, 4/15).

After the jump, more on FL SEN and the Tea Party.

Good Friday morning. Enjoy the sun while you can. The weekend weather doesn't look as nice.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics in the coming days and weeks:

PA 12 VOTERS: Dems have sent a clear signal with a massive ad buy this week -- they've got their chips on the table in the race to replace the late Rep. John Murtha (D). As we told you yesterday, the DCCC has reserved $896K worth of air time in the Johnstown-based district, enough to run hundreds of gross ratings points per week on behalf of ex-Murtha aide Mark Critz (D).

Simply reserving the time doesn't mean Dems have to make the purchases, but setting the time aside indicates Dems believe they have a fight on their hands. And it comes with added pressure, too: Now, Dems won't be able to say they always knew they were going to lose if, in fact, businessman Tim Burns (R) comes through for the GOP.

The NRCC isn't standing idly by, either. They've already spent $247K on the race, about a quarter of what the party spent on hotly contested special elections in NY-20 and NY-23. The money puts pressure on both parties, making sure the results will be the first true test of how health care and the economy could impact the midterm elections. There's no Dede Scozzafava/Doug Hoffman situation here, and it's a seat that each party should legitimately be able to win -- therefore, neither party gets an excuse this time out.

GOODWIN LIU: The Berkeley Law professor goes before the Senate Judiciary Committee today for confirmation hearings that could provide a road map for how Pres. Obama shepherds through a new generation of liberal federal judges. GOPers have tagged Liu as an unabashed liberal, and the minority is likely to put up a fight today (Early this morning, the RNC released a research document hitting Liu on his views on everything from the Constitution to reparations for slavery).

The Senate primary season is beginning to look like the first round of the NCAA basketball tournament, as a string of stunning upsets might be right around the corner.

The DSCC has been busy crowing that divisive GOP primaries may serve to keep the GOP's pickup opportunities at bay, while the NRSC's noise has suggested that Dem primaries are far more serious than their own.

They may both be right.

Take OH, for one. DSCC chair Bob Menendez has been upfront about his support for LG Lee Fisher (D) over Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D) in the May 4 primary. But Dems in OH and DC have begun to whisper that Brunner may just pull out a come-from-behind primary victory. It's a long-shot, they say, but even those who have worked against her behind the scenes say it's possible.

An OH-connected Dem who is officially neutral but loosely affiliated with the Fisher team said, "It's an open race. I wouldn't be surprised if either of them pulls it out."

Political observers in OH say in what many expect will be a low turnout primary, Brunner could be better positioned due to her connection with the base.

For one thing, Fisher sent around a general-election style mailer proclaiming that DC is broken, which Brunner quickly denounced. In fact, she took to the liberal DailyKos website to pen an entire missive about it, linking Fisher with the Tea Party.

On top of that, in her official capacity, Brunner issued a directive requiring primary voters who wish to switch sides to sign petitions that claim that they adhere to the principles of the party.

Fisher complained that a message like that only turns voters away; the problem is that base voters might just like it.

The DCCC has launched its first ads in the race to hold on to the late Rep. John Murtha's (D-PA) seat, attacking the GOP candidate as willing to raise taxes on purchases across the board.

In the new ad, the DCCC accuses businessman Tim Burns (R) of wanting to raise taxes by 23%. It's a riff on a standard ad employed against GOPers who favor a flat tax rather than an income tax.

And the DCCC isn't messing around. They've dumped just over $123K into ad buys in the Pittsburgh and Altoona-Johnstown markets, according to FEC filings made public today. Including production costs, the DCCC has spent a total of $136K on the race so far.

That's less than the NRCC has spent -- so far, filings show the GOP committee has spent $247K on the race. The NRCC went up with its first ads hitting ex-Murtha aide Mark Critz (D) over the weekend.

The DCCC's first ad, "Middle Class Families Can't Afford Tim Burns":

Update: The DCCC is clearly signaling they aren't taking the race lightly. The party has reserved $896K worth of air time in the Pittsburgh and Altoona-Johnstown markets. That's $161K worth of broadcast airtime ($130K in Pittsburgh, $31K in A-J) and $87K in cable airtime ($65K in Pittsburgh, $21K in A-J) per week until the 5/18 primary.

The totals add up to 725 broadcast ratings points per week in Pittsburgh and 600 points in cheaper Altoona-Johnstown. Dems don't have to keep their reservations -- they can cancel them at any moment -- but the party has clearly budgeted for an expensive, and all-out, war.

After airing 5 television ads focusing largely on his own background and policy positions, LG Bill Halter (D-AR) has released 2 consecutive attack ads targeting Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D). Halter's camp is adjusting tactics too as spokesperson Laura Chopin opted against revealing certain information about Halter's newest ad.

When asked by Hotline OnCall for the original air date and duration of Halter's latest ad "Protect", along with the media markets it is running in, Halter spokesperson Laura Chopin declined to reveal any background information, even though the campaign has released such information on previous TV ads.

"We are putting it in front of the people who need to see it," said Chopin. She later added, "We obviously have a good idea where Bill Halter stands and what he needs to be talking (about)."

Chopin said that "at this point, we're just making different calls on things. There are a lot of decisions that are being made rather quickly." She confirmed Laguens Kully Klose Partners is still producing Halter's ads.

According to an e-mail from Jason Tolbert of the AR blog The Tolbert Report, the AR airwaves are "wall to wall Lincoln and Halter ads" with the "occasional" ad from Rep. John Boozman (R) appearing.

Congressional Dems are notably open to supporting some version of a value-added tax, according to the new National Journal Congressional Insiders poll, while GOPers were strongly opposed.

A slight majority of 53% of Dems expressed receptivity to the so-called VAT, which recently has received positive notice from well-placed officials -- including Paul Volcker, who Pres. Obama tapped to head a commission to explore tax-reform measures. In addition, Federal Reserve Board chairman Ben Bernanke and Congressional Budget Office director Doug Elmendorf have recently joined discussions of the issue.

The supportive Dems cited a variety of factors in their responses to the Insiders poll. "This is a truly progressive tax. And if implemented properly, could raise more revenue and do it more fairly than the current system," said one Dem lawmaker. Another said cited a VAT as "a positive outcome of our current debt posture. VAT solves debt and entitlement solvency all at once."

And other Dems cited the fact that many Western nations already have some form of a value-added tax. "Instituting one will help level the playing field on trade, making our goods more competitive with European products," replied another Insider. In what may have been a tongue-in-cheek reply, another Congressional Insiders responded, "I'm a tax and spend liberal, so you can't expect anything else."

Among the 37% of Dems who said that they were not open to a VAT, one replied that such a proposal would violate his campaign pledge not to increase taxes on Americans who earn less than $200K annually. Another responded, "It wouldn't be prudent to add a VAT with the economy in its present state." The remaining 10% did not come down on one side or the other.

GOP Congressional Insiders showed little interest in a VAT proposal, despite the fact that a consumption-based tax has historically received some support from conservative economists. They chiefly cited the need to reduce federal spending and the huge federal deficit. "Congress should be considering about tax relief to boost our economy, not job-killing tax hikes," one GOPer replied.

But some GOP Insiders were gleeful about the political implications of Dems' interest in a VAT. One GOPer responded, "I'm not sure how much more political suicide the Democrat majority wants to inflict, but we would welcome these debates with great enthusiasm." In a make-my-day reply, another said, "There they go again."

Adding together Pres. Obama, FLOTUS Michelle Obama, VP Joe Biden and Dr. Jill Biden, all of whom also checked the requisite box, the WH just contributed $12 to the eventual GOP ticket that will run against them in '12.

The First and Second Families checked a box on their income tax forms that would send $3 to the Presidential Election Campaign Fund, the pool from which WH candidates draw their public financing. If, as expected, Obama once again forgoes public financing when he runs for re-election, checking the box now means he's essentially financing his eventual opponent.

Then-candidate Obama made history when he became the first contender to opt out of post-Watergate era public financing of WH campaigns. But Pres. Obama would apparently prefer that the fund stick around.

Candidates become eligible for federal matching funds when they are able to prove they've raised $5K from at least 20 states. In a WH primary, candidates are then allowed to spend 65.4 cents per person old enough to vote, or $817K, whichever is more.

Once one of those candidates wins a nomination, they become eligible for general election matching funds -- in '08, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) accepted $81.78M in matching funds.

The Obamas aren't poor. Their tax bill shows they had an adjusted gross income of $5.5M last year, largely from sales of Pres. Obama's books. They paid $1.8M in taxes -- $8K more than they needed to, money that was applied to next year's return.

-- Cyra Master contributed to this report

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) threw down the gauntlet today by vetoing a controversial education reform bill that had been championed by state GOP leaders.

The move was expected -- Crist had been hinting at a veto of Senate Bill 6 for days since it passed the GOP-controlled state House in a 64-55 vote last week. But it's the repercussions of Crist's action -- and the new trail that it may blaze for Crist's faltering SEN candidacy -- that remain to be seen.

In his veto remarks, Crist dropped hints that he may try to use the veto to position himself as an outsider. He put state GOPers in the same box as national Dems, charging that they tried to pass the education bill in the same manner that Dems passed health care -- by "jamming something down their throats."

More Crist: "I find the content of Senate Bill 6 and the manner of its passage significantly flawed. There is only one person who can accurately state the reason for the veto the one who holds the pen. I veto SB 6 because this bill is contrary to my firmly held principle to act in the best interests of the people of Florida."

A Miami Herald report notes that when asked if he'd be on the GOP primary ballot, Crist "continued walking away."

Even though Crist made the announcement two hours ago, one GOP state Rep. backing him has already pulled his support for Crist's SEN bid, telling the Herald Crist "is playing political games with our children's education."

With this a.m.'s Q poll showing Crist within the margin of error in a three-way-race against ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-17), today's veto could very likely signal that an indie bid is imminent.

Sen. Jim Bunning's (R-KY) endorsement of an outsider in the race for his seat came as a surprise to KY politicos, but it's the latest in a series of well-timed slaps at Bunning's former close friend, Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell.

In a statement yesterday, Bunning endorsed ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R), calling him the only conservative in the race.

"I know what it takes to stand up for the conservative principles that are needed to make America a better place for our children and grandchildren. Dr. Paul shares those same core values and has the courage and conviction necessary to make sure the voices of Kentucky's workers, families, retirees, and children are heard in Washington," Bunning said.

The nod was a clear snub of Sec/State Trey Grayson (R), the establishment favorite who has seen his poll numbers plummet as Paul gains momentum. It's ironic, too: Paul entered the race before Bunning was forced aside. Grayson only set up an exploratory committee after Bunning encouraged him to do so.

But Bunning's goal, KY GOPers suspect, goes beyond simply backing a candidate. Indeed, most thought he would stay neutral. The side benefit of backing Paul, virtually everyone agrees, is that the nod will irritate McConnell. McConnell orchestrated the behind-the-scenes campaign to force Bunning out of his re-election bid, and Bunning has reacted icily ever since.

And Bunning's own reputation makes his endorsement, in an anti-incumbent climate, even more crucial.

"Bunning has cemented himself as a thorn in the establishment's side, and I think voters are looking to send a message to the establishment," said one top KY GOPer who backs Grayson. "So, from that perspective, the Bunning endorsement reinforces what Paul really wants this race to be about: 'If you want to send a message to the establishment, vote for me.'"

Bunning will keynote the state GOP's Lincoln Day Dinner on May 8, an event that has been set aside as a special tribute to the retiring senator. "This endorsement couldn't have come at a better time for Paul, because my guess is Bunning will not be shy about using that night to say exactly what is on his mind," the GOP source said.

Not only is the timing good for Paul, it's especially bad for Grayson. Grayson released internal polling last week showing him inching back, and his fundraising . The Bunning nod, sources said, has stopped that momentum cold.

What's more, Bunning's endorsement has undercut a key argument Grayson has tried to make -- that Paul's out-of-state money shows he has little or no in-state support. With Bunning on Paul's side, that argument goes out the window.

Most voters don't pay attention to endorsements and, said another KY GOP operative, Bunning isn't that popular anyway, even inside his own party. After all, the last endorsement Bunning made in a contested primary was of ex-Rep. Anne Northup (R), who fell short in her bid against then-Gov. Ernie Fletcher (R).

Bunning's endorsement does 3 things: It gives Paul in-state cover; it robs Grayson of some early momentum; and it gives an angry electorate a clear sign as to how to vote in the pending primary.

A top GOP source close to ex-WI Gov./ex-HHS Sec. Tommy Thompson (R) tells Hotline OnCall that Thompson has decided not to run against Sen. Russ Feingold (D).

Thompson's decision leaves the GOP race to developer Terrence Wall (R), businessman Dave Westlake (R), and ex-WI Dept. of Commerce Sec. Dick Leinenkugel (R), who is expected to announce a run later this month. Wall, a self-funder who poured $1.2M of his own money into his campaign, went up on TV in Feb. with an ad that attacks Feingold. Businessman Ron Johnson (R) may also run.

Meanwhile, for nat'l GOPers looking to add higher caliber candidates to SEN races, the focus is now reduced to WA, where '04/'08 GOV nominee Dino Rossi (R) has yet to announce a decision on a bid against Sen. Patty Murray (D). Rossi, who has already come under attack from the DSCC, may not announce his decision until shortly before the June filing deadline.

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's (R) political arm handed out $58K to GOP candidates running for office this year after raising an impressive sum during the first quarter.

The Free and Strong America PAC raised $1.45M in the first quarter, while 3 other state affiliates raised another $157K. In total, the PAC handed out $53K to federal candidates and $1K to state candidates. The PAC's SC and NH affiliates gave money to candidates in their states, too.

Romney's PAC gave money to 29 total candidates, including incumbent members in MO, CA and OH. SC state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R), running against Rep. John Spratt (D), is the only early nominating state federal candidate to have gotten a contribution, though Romney did give to a NH state Senate candidate and 2 NH state representative candidates.

Romney's PAC finished March with $1.47M in the bank, according to newly filed FEC reports.

Like other PACs, Romney's spent heavily to raise the money he was able to. A March fundraiser at Lucky Strike, an upscale DC bowling alley, cost the PAC $6K. Consultants pulled in at least $17K. And the PAC paid for Romney to fly around the country and appear at events for local candidates.

Romney also appears to be investing heavily in a significant web presence. He paid Targeted Victory, an Alexandria-based firm headed by former RNC Victory Director Michael Beach and RNC Political Education Director Zac Moffatt, $11K in consulting fees and an additional $90K in unspecified web services.

The Tea Party Express announced today it will support ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) in the primary to take on Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, the outside group's first endorsement of a candidate in a GOP primary.

Angle has raised less money than ex-state Sen./ex-NV GOP chair Sue Lowden (R) and businessman Danny Tarkanian (R), and she will likely be outspent by investment banker John Chachas (R), who is funding much of his own race. But, the Tea Party group said, she's the right ideological fit.

"Sharron Angle is a hero for conservatives and the tea party movement. There is no candidate who can match her record of principled conservatism," Tea Party Express political director Bryan Shroyer said. "At a time when politicians of both parties have betrayed the people's trust, Sharron Angle is a rare gem."

Angle appeals to the most conservative set of the NV GOP base. The author of the Silver State's property tax reform initaitive, she narrowly lost an '06 bid against now-Rep. Dean Heller (R), running to his right.

Polls show Lowden with a clear advantage over the rest of the GOP field. Tarkanian has largely failed to catch fire, NV political watchers say, while Chachas only started advertising last month. The contenders will face off in the June 8 primary.

The Tea Party Express kicked off their third national tour with a rally in Reid's hometown, a tour that culminates today with an event in DC.

Today's FEC day, when every campaign has to file their reports. But some campaigns got a jump on their reports. By the way, follow us on Twitter at @FECtweets for the latest campaign finance updates.

Here's our final pre-deadline roundup of candidate fundraising:

CA SEN: Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R) raised $626K over the last 3 months. That's less than both ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R) and ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R), but it's DeVore's best quarter to date. DeVore has $412K in the bank.

CO SEN: Sen. Michael Bennet (D) raised $1.4M in the first quarter. He had $3.4M in the bank at the end of the year; we haven't seen cash on hand numbers this time around, yet.

IL SEN: Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) raised $1.2M in the first quarter and had about $1.2M in the bank after a competitive primary. Rep. Mark Kirk (R), by contrast, raised $2.2M last quarter and spent less on his less competitive primary.

NH SEN: Rep. Paul Hodes (D) raised $665K last quarter and has "nearly" $1.66M in the bank, according to his camp. Ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R), who faces a tough fight in the GOP primary, raised $671K last quarter and has $1.3M in the bank already, the New Hampshire Union Leader's John DiStaso writes.

NY SEN: Sen. Kirsten Gillibrand (D) raised $1.6M last quarter, brining her total to $8.75M since she was appointed, the New York Post wrote. Gillibrand has not yet reported her cash on hand totals. New candidate David Malpass (R) will give himself $1M, and ex-Rep. Joe DioGuardi (R) raised just $100K in his first 15 days. DioGuardi gave himself $931K and has $974K in the bank, the Daily News reports.

OH SEN: LG Lee Fisher (D) raised $550K in the first quarter and had $1.8M in the bank, the Cleveland Plain Dealer reports. That's a quarter of what ex-Rep. Rob Portman (R) raised in the past 3 months.

After the jump, House races.

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) and ex-House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) would be tied in a three-way contest if Crist bolts the GOP in order to run as an independent candidate, according to a new survey.

The Quinnipiac Univ. poll surveyed 1,250 FL voters between April 8-13 for a margin of error of +/- 2.8%. A subsample of 497 GOPers had a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. Crist and Rubio were tested against Rep. Kendrick Meek (D).

GOP PRIMARY ELECTION MATCHUP
Rubio       56 (+9 from last, Jan. 26)
Crist       33 (-11)


GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUPS
Crist       48 (+0)      Rubio       42 (-2)
Meek        34 (-2)      Meek        38 (+3)
Crist       32
Rubio       30
Meek        24

Crist has a clear path to victory if he does run as an independent. Dems and indies both give him better approval ratings than GOPers do, and both give him a better fav/unfav ratio. About 4 in 10 voters don't know enough about Rubio to rate him, while three quarters of FL voters don't know Meek at all.

FAV/UNFAV
         All    GOP    Dem    Ind
Crist   48/35  49/42  50/30  48/33
Rubio   36/22  67/ 7  13/34  32/21
Meek    18/ 8   5/17  34/ 4  15/ 7

But Crist's path to victory, if he runs as an independent, also opens the door for Meek. Meek had $3.3M in the bank at the end of the year -- we haven't seen his numbers so far this quarter -- which gives him the opportunity to carve out a niche among Dem voters. If Meek becomes better-known among FL voters, he could win a seat he wouldn't otherwise have a shot at in a 2-way race.

Sen. George LeMieux (R-FL), one of FL Gov. Charlie Crist's (R) closest advisors, said this morning he does not believe Crist will leave the GOP, even as Crist's campaign has seemingly left the door open for a last-minute party switch.

On a conference call previewing Pres. Obama's trip to the Kennedy Space Center today, LeMieux declined to say whether he would support Crist's potential independent bid.

"I have no information that he's going to run as an independent. He's a Republican. He's always been a Republican, and I expect him to run as a Republican," LeMieux said when asked whether he would continue backing Crist in the event Crist becomes an independent.

At the moment, Crist, who faces dismal poll numbers in his primary race against ex-House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), is debating whether to sign a GOP-backed education measure that would dramatically alter the current teacher tenure system. The bill, sponsored by FL GOP chair/state Sen. John Thrasher (R), would replace tenure with a merit pay-based system.

Crist's office told Hotline OnCall yesterday that calls were running overwhelmingly against the measure. He has until tomorrow to decide whether to veto the bill. LeMieux said he backs the bill, but he said he doesn't believe Crist's decision will indicate whether he's headed for a party switch.

"I've asked him to sign the education bill, and I hope that he will. I don't think that him running as a Republican and what he does on the education bill are linked," LeMieux said.

Meanwhile, GOPers are hammering Obama's trip to FL, where he will address the future of NASA and the Constellation program and attend a DNC fundraiser in Miami. Obama's budget calls for dramatic cuts to parts of NASA's budget that could impact thousands of jobs in FL. That could hurt Reps. Suzanne Kosmas (D) and Alan Grayson (D), freshmen who represent NASA-heavy districts on or near the Space Coast.

"Between the sixth and seventh dinner course, we hope Reps. Kosmas and Grayson are kind enough to ask the president to keep the government out of our wallets and focus on creating jobs," RNC spokesman LeRoy Coleman said.

Update: Crist has vetoed the education bill, a move sure to infuriate GOPers in FL.

Good Thursday morning, and happy Tax Day. Conservative activist Patrick Ruffini tweeted it best last night in a breaking news alert: "Ruffini to sign Federal Government stimulus tonight," he wrote.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter in politics today:

PRES. OBAMA: Obama heads to Cape Canaveral today to assuage serious fears among those who work for and around NASA. And those engineers and subcontractors have reason to worry: Obama's budget for the space agency would cancel the Constellation project, NASA's next generation of manned space flight, which is already seriously over budget and behind schedule, as we wrote for National Journal last week.

The decision has sparked a serious backlash among members of Congress. Both Dems and GOPers, from all over the country, have said they don't want to see what amounts to cancellation of the country's manned space capability (The shuttle program will expire after just 3 more scheduled flights). Members are worried about jobs in their district, and there's a deeper pride that goes along with leading the world in space exploration. One member, Rep. John Culberson (R-TX), went so far as to characterize the new budget as "surrendering the high ground."

But there are political implications, as well. When Obama travels to FL today, he'll talk about billions he's bringing to the Space Coast in order to spur development of a commercial space industry. Still, thousands anticipate losing their jobs -- 11K engineers work on Constellation now, according to a NASA spokesman. That's bad news for people like Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D-FL), who faces re-election in a NASA-heavy district. Despite her opposition to the proposed budget, it's still her party's president who's gutting the agency.

EX-GOV. TOMMY THOMPSON: As we told you yesterday, the former WI GOV is set to announce whether he will make a SEN bid this year, according to a top GOP official close to Thompson. He'll make his choice known at a Tea Party rally today in Madison.

If he runs, Thompson will be the latest to put an otherwise safe Dem seat in play. Sen. Russ Feingold (D) will be tough to beat, but he's clearly planning for a difficult re-election fight; the WI Dem Party has been hitting Thompson for his business and lobbying ties in recent weeks, perhaps trying to dissuade him from making a bid.

Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) spent more money to de-ice her private jets than she did donating money to candidates during the first 3 months of the year, according to new filings made with the FEC.

The filings show Palin's political wing, Sarah PAC, paid a FL-based airplane service company $14K to de-ice a private jet. The PAC spent more than $16K -- twice as much as it donated to individual candidates -- on hotels from New Orleans to New York City to Richland, WA.

And it's good to work on Palin's behalf. Consultants for the PAC made more than $233K through their contracts, the report shows. Ex-spokeswoman Meg Stapleton, who left the PAC last month, had a $10K per month contract. Randy Scheunemann, one of Palin's top advisors during the WH'08 campaign, also makes $10K a month; during the last 3 months, Jason Recher, another aide on the '08 campaign, made $50K.

The amount she pays her staff pales in comparison to the amount she gives to help GOP candidates win elections. Palin gave just $7,500 to candidates running for office this time. She handed $1K checks to Iraq war vet Vaughn Ward (R), who is running against Rep. Walt Minnick (D-ID); Iraq War vet Allen West (R), who faces a primary in his challenge to Rep. Ron Klein (D-FL); and ex-McLean Co. Commis./Iraq war vet Adam Kinzinger (R), the nominee against Rep. Debbie Halvorson.

Palin gave $2,500 to Ashland Co. DA Sean Duffy (R), running an uphill battle against Rep. Dave Obey (D-WI), and another $2K to ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R), the reports show. Meanwhile, she also gave $1K each to 2 PACs that support veterans running for Congress.

The $9,500 in checks represent just 2.3% of the money Palin brought in during the first quarter. Palin's PAC spent a total of $409,760 in the first quarter.

What's more, there is no evidence that Palin has kept her promise to donate money she earned from a Tea Party convention in Feb. Amid controversies surrounding the National Tea Party Convention, held in Nashville, Palin said she would donate her $100K speaking fee to campaigns, candidates and issues.

Palin did not contribute any money to her PAC, according to FEC filings. And in fact, it will be difficult for her to contribute the money this year. Palin, as an individual, would be able to give a maximum of $45,600 to different candidates -- maxing out to 19 contenders -- and another $69,900 to party committees, for a total of $115,500.

It has never made sense for Palin to contribute the money to political organizations. If she did that, she would still have to pay taxes on the reported $100K she earned from the speech; contributions to candidates and political parties are not tax deductible.

So far, while SarahPAC has given money to candidates, Palin herself has not contributed to any federal candidate this cycle, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. A Palin spokesperson did not return an email seeking comment.

-- Stephanie Palla contributed to this report

Update: Palin's team has told other media outlets that the cost for de-icing is listed twice, so Palin only spent $7,300 on de-icing her private plane. Palin's team has not updated their FEC filing and the expense is not listed as a reimbursement, the usual reason something might appear on the report twice. Palin's team still has not responded to Hotline OnCall's request for comment.

A controversial teacher tenure bill in FL could determine whether Gov. Charlie Crist (R) succeeds or fails in his battle against ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R).

Crist is expected to announce tomorrow or Friday whether or not he will veto SB 6, a bill that would enact sweeping changes to the state's educational system, including performance-based pay and the elimination of teacher tenure.

The bill, which was introduced by FL GOP chair/state Sen. John Thrasher and narrowly passed the state House last Friday, has unleashed a torrent of criticism from voters and teachers' unions. Between March 1 and April 12, Crist's office has received 15.7K phone calls and 18K emails opposing the bill, including an emailed petition with 15K signatures.

That's compared to 264 phone calls and 80 emails supporting the bill, according to Crist's official office. An additional 33K emails received last week have yet to be opened.

Crist said that reaction to the bill has been "pervasive" like no other issue he's seen before, "even more so than the Schiavo thing." Over the past week, he's made much of talking with voters before announcing a decision on the bill, which he'll need to do before 11:59 pm Friday. Otherwise, the bill automatically becomes law. Teachers and students have been confronting Crist -- even in the halls of the state Capitol, and often in tears -- in order to make personal entreaties to him to veto the bill.

While a veto of the bill would confront Crist with plenty of risks, he also stands much to gain -- and it could be just what he needs to resurrect his tanking bid against Rubio.

The Risks

A veto could be the final nudge that pushes by ex-FL Gov. Jeb Bush (R), who remains the most popular GOPer in the state despite maintaining a low profile since leaving office, to endorse Rubio. Bush's backing of Rubio has long been an open secret, and he's also a staunch supporter of the teacher tenure bill. A public endorsement of Rubio -- sooner rather than later -- could bring a fresh wave of support to his bid and further dry up Crist's already lagging fundraising.

Dems have to be concerned with their standing among senior citizens, and the party still has a long way to go to make up an enthusiasm gap with the GOP, a top party pollster said today.

A new George Washington Univ. Battleground Poll shows Dems face an historic gap. Today, 76% of likely GOP voters call themselves "extremely" likely to vote. Just 62% of Dems fit in the same category. That gap, according to pollster Celinda Lake, is bigger than it was even in '94.

That intensity, according to GOP pollster Ed Goeas, is "the elephant in the room" that can aid GOPers during the midterms. In '94, Lake said, the GOP enjoyed a 7-point edge -- half what the party has now.

Lake and Goeas head the 2 partisan firms that conduct the Battleground Poll.

Meanwhile, older voters are much more likely to vote GOP than they have been in recent cycles. Unlike in '06, when the parties were tied among seniors, or in '08, when GOPers had a slight advantage, today, Lake said, seniors favor the GOP by wide margins.

"We see seniors as a problem throughout the data," Lake said. "We can't have seniors as angry as they are right now."

GOPers have made a concerted effort to play up cuts to Medicare in the health care overhaul. What's more, though seniors have historically voted with Dems, those in the older set spent their middle ages in Ronald Reagan's America. "It's not your Roosevelt seniors anymore," Lake said.

But overall, health care reform is a fading issue in voters' minds. The poll shows a plurality of voters care most about jobs and the economy most, with government spending taking over the second-place slot.

SC AG Henry McMaster (R) is appealing to conservatives in his campaign's first ad, showing off his commitment to family values and states' rights as he battles his way through a competitive GOP GOV primary.

At the same time, he takes what sure sounds like a not-so-subtle dig at current Gov. Mark Sanford (R), whose trip to Argentina last year to visit his mistress effectively ended his political career.

"A good name is a priceless possession. A good reputation is a lifelong blessing," the ad says. Ronald Reagan made McMaster his first US Atty appointment because of his "character, judgment, experience."

McMaster is a "family man, Christian conservative," the ad says. Whether implicit or explicit, the contrast with Sanford will be obvious to any GOPer who turns out to vote on primary day.

Meanwhile, McMaster, one of the first state AGs to bring suit against the federal government over health care legislation, takes the opportunity to highlight that role, too. "As our attorney general, McMaster challenged Obama's health care takeover and defended our state's rights," the narrator says.

McMaster's first ad, "A Good Name":

McMaster is one of the front-runners in the race to succeed Sanford. He'll face Rep. Gresham Barrett, LG Andre Bauer and state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) in the June 8 GOP primary. The winner will likely face state Superintendent of Education Jim Rex (D) in Nov.

Reports this a.m. indicated that ex-WI Gov./ex-HHS Sec. Tommy Thompson (R) was leaning against a SEN bid. Later, Thompson told the AP that he was still undecided, leaving many wondering which way he's leaning.

A WI GOP source close to Thompson tells Hotline OnCall that Thompson has not made up his mind. "There has absolutely not been a final decision by Tommy Thompson as to whether or not he's running for senator," the source said. "Reports this morning that he's not running were erroneous, but there's only two things that can happen."

Thompson is expected to announce his decision 4/15 at a Tea Party rally in Madison. The source: "Tommy wants to run more than anything in the world. ... but I think there are some concerns among the family as far as jumping back into the political arena, and I think those are the issues Tommy is weighing right now."

If Thompson decides against a SEN run, look for Oshkosh businessman Ron Johnson (R), who owns Pacur, a polyester company, to jump in and self-fund a campaign, the source added.

The other GOPers vying for a chance to take on Sen. Russ Feingold (D) are developer Terrence Wall (R) and businessman Dave Westlake (R). And according to reports last week, ex-WI Dept. of Commerce Sec. Dick Leinenkugel (R) is expected to officially announce his entrance into the GOP race later this month.

The Hotline's John Mercurio writes:

Republicans may not pitch a full-fledged battle over President Obama's nominee for the Supreme Court. Regardless of whom he selects, however, there still will be fireworks this summer. Anyone who doubts that should consider the GOP's past few weeks, which offer a glaring illustration of what stands between the party and power: a supreme lack of national leaders.

Between fallout from the Republican National Committee's sex-club scandal and the Southern Republican Leadership Conference in New Orleans, one theme has emerged: While the party remains unified on messaging and policy, they struggle to unite behind someone who can lead the party from its feudal state to national dominance. While this challenge is common for parties out of power, failure to address it can hinder their revival.

...

No other event between now and the midterm elections (i.e., the unofficial kick-off of the 2012 presidential primary) will likely offer Republicans as much opportunity to unite the party behind one voice.

National Republican Senatorial Committee Chairman John Cornyn, R-Texas, acknowledged as much this week. "Conservatives across the country understand how the court is sometimes used to overrule majority opinion," he told the National Law Journal. "So, this is something that I think is really a windfall for us leading up to the November elections. It's going to get people very energized."

With a few glaring exceptions, Supreme Court fights are more motivating to the right than the left, meaning it's more likely that the GOP will raise money and enthusiasm over a vacancy, regardless of how confrontational the pick is. The biggest resistance to George W. Bush's choice of Harriet Miers, for example, wasn't Democrats but conservative Republicans.

Read the whole column here.

GOP voters have better feelings about the Tea Party movement than they do about their own Congressional leadership, a new survey shows. And overall, a plurality of voters say they have a positive view of the movement.

Fully 65% of GOP voters said they view the Tea Party movement favorably, according to the latest George Washington Univ. Battleground Poll. Meanwhile, just 55% of GOPers said they approve of the job GOP members of Congress are doing, while 35% disapprove.

Ed Goeas, a GOP pollster and one half of the bipartisan team that conducts the Battleground Poll, said GOPers have yet to solidify their relationship with the movement, but that the issues those who identify themselves as Tea Partiers care most about are issues that favor the GOP.

"There will be no leaders to the Tea Party," Goeas told reporters today at a breakfast sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor. "What there will be is a consensus and a belief and a direction that is much deeper ... than just the activists that you see out on the street."

"Whichever party does the best job of tying into that mood, as opposed to trying to lead that mood, is going to be successful," Goeas added. "Right now, that mood is against higher spending, is against mandates coming into the states, and is going to be very heavily against taxation."

In all, 38% of Americans say they have a favorable impression of the Tea Party movement, while 32% have an unfavorable view. Dems, by and large, view the movement unfavorably.

Meanwhile, the movement, and its distance from national GOPers, gives Dems hope that they may be able to drive a wedge between the Tea Party and the GOP, especially by encouraging third party candidates to run for office.

"Our biggest hope is a record number of third party candidates from the Tea Party, because I think they would take a margin that will be the margin of victory in a lot of Congressional seats," said Dem pollster Celinda Lake, the other half of GWU's polling team.

The poll, conducted among 1,000 voters who said they were likely to cast ballots in the midterm elections, shows GOPers leading the generic Congressional ballot by a 42%-40% margin, with independents favoring GOP candidates by a 32%-25% margin.

And while GOPers aren't sold on their leaders in DC, Dems are more likely to approve of the job their members of Congress are doing. Dems said they approve of the majority's job performance by a 72%-23% margin.

The poll, conducted by Goeas's The Tarrance Group (R) and Lake Research Partners (D), was conducted April 5-8. The margin of error was plus or minus 3.1%.

TN LG Ron Ramsey (R) is up with his first spot of the primary election, contrasting the way things work in DC with the way things work in Nashville.

"If you'll hang tough with me, we'll keep running our state the Tennessee way. If those guys in Washington don't like it, well, we'll just give 'em the boot," Ramsey says in the spot.

It's an interesting contrast: Ramsey is running in a GOP primary to replace Gov. Phil Bredesen (D), the largely popular 2-term incumbent. A Feb. poll taken by Middle Tennessee State Univ. showed voters approved of Bredesen's job performance by a 52%-20% margin.

Then again, Ramsey faces a tough primary against several other prominent Volunteer State politicians -- including one with a long record in DC. Rep. Zach Wamp (R) has about the same amount of money in the bank Ramsey does. And Wamp's Chattanoga base gives him a bigger platform than Ramsey's base in eastern TN.

Ramsey's first ad, "The Tennessee Way":

Ramsey hasn't raised any money in the first quarter, thanks to a law preventing state legislators from soliciting contributions during the first quarter. He'll be able to when the session ends or by May 15, whichever comes first. The primary is Aug. 5.

Wamp and Ramsey will also face Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R), Shelby Co. DA Bill Gibbons (R) and a few other lesser-known contenders. Businessman Mike McWherter (D), son of ex-Gov. Ned McWherter (D), is the likely Dem nominee.

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) is up with his first 3 ads of the primary election campaign, touting his status as a rainmaker who brings jobs back to his home state.

For a GOPer, Specter always had good relations with the state's labor unions. Now, as a Dem, he can fully embrace those connections. One ad features a union carpenter; another focuses on a newly employed construction worker; and a third spotlights Bethlehem Steel and its workers.

The spots are Specter's first advertisements, and they come just a month before primary election day, when he faces a new set of voters, some of whom have spent years voting against him because of the (R) after his name. But he'll have plenty of backup; local Dem groups, labor unions and other traditional party allies have, in many cases, chosen Specter over Rep. Joe Sestak (D).

And Specter will have plenty of chances to explain his record -- Specter had almost $8.7M in the bank as of the end of the year. Sestak is no fundraising slouch either; he's got $4.2M in the bank as well. Ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R), the likely GOP nominee, will be able to save his ammunition until the general. Toomey has $2.78M to play with, as of his most recent filings.

Specter's first ad, "Bethlehem Steel", produced by consultant Chris Mottola:

After the jump, see Specter's other opening salvos.

Fresh off passage of landmark health care reform legislation, Dem SEN candidates uniformly pivoted to job creation and launched a flurry of jobs tours during their first recess.

And that's just what their constituents wanted to hear, said the man in charge of electing Dems to the upper chamber this fall. DSCC chair Bob Menendez explained that when he was home for recess speaking with constituents, they wanted to hear about the economy and jobs, rather than healthcare.

"They might be sitting around their kitchen tables talking about health care, but I know for sure they're talking about jobs and the economy, and we'd be disconnected from our constituents if we were not talking about that," he said in an interview Tuesday.

Dem strategists acknowledged that there was a marked shift away from health care over the recess, because they've been itching for months to tack toward jobs. Campaigns have been waiting anxiously to put the health care conversation behind them.

While endangered House Dems trumpeted large sums of cash they raised during the first quarter and attributed the hauls to passing the legislation, House GOP candidates responded in kind with their contention that their intakes spiked due to opposition to the bill. But Senate Dem hopefuls simply changed the subject. As the DSCC sees it, that's a welcome development that shows they've finally gotten to a place that will be more useful to them in their campaigns and shows discipline on the economic message they want to promulgate.

Rep. Charlie Melacon (D-LA), challenging Sen. David Vitter (R), held a lengthy "Jambalaya and Jobs" tour through the Pelican State last week. Melancon voted against the health care legislation in the House.

Sec/State Robin Carnahan (D), running for Sen. Kit Bond's (R-MO) open seat against Rep. Roy Blunt (R), focused largely on financial regulatory reform and ending earmarks.

Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH), running to replace retiring Sen. Judd Gregg (R), held a 4-day middle class jobs tour last week. Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D), seeking to fill Sen. Evan Bayh's (D-IN) seat, kicked off an "Indiana Works" tour in which he conceded at one point that he "lost some friends" over his health care vote, according to the Post-Tribune.

It's not just challengers who want to avoid the conversation. Even Sens. Patty Murray (D-WA) and Michael Bennet (D-CO), incumbents who voted for the health care bill in the Senate, promoted next steps -- on unemployment benefits and financial regulatory reform -- rather than spend the bulk of their time trying to sell health care.

"World News" led with a report on the state of homeownership in the U.S. "Evening News" led with the nuclear summit. "Nightly News" led with a challenge to Pres. Obama's reported plans to "idle" the U.S. space program sending astronauts into space.

Ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) went on "Your World" 4/13 p.m.

FNC's Cavuto: "Your opponent in the Republican race has said 10 percent cuts in all related taxes for everybody in the state as a way to stimulate the type of job growth you would want to see in the factory you're sitting in now. What do you say to that?"

Whitman: "I would say we can't afford it right now. We cannot afford an across-the-board cut. It's the right thing to do, but someone has to be the adult in the room here. And we cannot afford that kind of tax cut right now, not on top of a $20 billion budget deficit."

More Whitman: "What I want to do is get people back to work, some targeted tax credits to get hiring going, cut government spending, and then turbocharge the economy by an across-the-board tax cut. But you have to pace and sequence this smartly. Otherwise, you will increase the budget deficit, not decrease the budget deficit. And that's something we simply can't afford in California."

Whitman, on spending a large chunk of her personal fortune on the race: "What I'm trying to do is get our message out. I was not well-known, in a political context, in California. And so what we're doing is making sure voters in California understand what I'm focused on" (FNC, 4/13).

After the jump, recent comments made by ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) and thoughts on the upcoming SCOTUS nom.

Good Wednesday morning. Pres. Obama will meet today with top Dem and GOP leaders over financial reform a day after Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell blasted the plan set to hit the Senate floor shortly. Oh, to be a fly on that wall.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics right now:

THE DCCC: Rep.-elect Ted Deutch (D-FL) is the latest Dem to win a special election, cruising to victory in the race to replace ex-Rep. Robert Wexler (D) last night. It is the ninth straight time Dems have won a special election, dating back to May 13, '08, when Rep. Travis Childers (D) replaced Sen. Roger Wicker (R) (10 days earlier, Dem Don Cazayoux won a GOP-held seat the same day Rep. Steve Scalise held a GOP open seat).

One thing is clear: The DCCC knows how to win a special election. But now, their job gets harder, with special election battles looming in Dem-held HI-01 and PA-12 next month. A loss in either seat, where GOPers have strong candidates and good chances, would cement the narrative that GOPers won the health care battle and are riding the wave to a good Nov.

In PA, businessman Tim Burns (R) has released a poll showing him leading ex-House aide Mark Critz (D) by 4 points. But it's a month old, and things don't look good for Burns. We're told he's pulled his ads, a sign he may be running low on campaign cash before the May 18 special. The NRCC is up with ads, but the Dem nature of the seat will be on full view on election day, as contested party primaries drive Dem turnout.

EX-REP. ED CASE: The GOP actually has a better chance in the more Dem-heavy HI district, which takes in much of Honolulu. GOPers have rallied around city councilman Charles Djou (R), a savvy campaigner with a history of winning Dem-heavy seats. DC Dems prefer Case, who won several terms representing the state's other district, while HI Dems favor state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa (D). The candidate who wins a plurality in the all-mail May 22 special election wins the seat.

Both Dems and GOPers privately acknowledge that Case is the front-runner. The AFL-CIO, which backs Hanabusa, has sent out mailers bashing his labor record during his first stint in Congress, and GOPers are quietly beginning to spread opposition research on him. The latest: Case has hired well-respected Dem pollster Fred Yang, who was tagged as an advisor in the criminal complaint against ex-IL Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D). Yang was "Advisor B," who suggested Blagojevich leverage Pres. Obama's open Senate seat in order to win a top position at Change to Win, the labor federation headed by SEIU (read more about Yang's involvement here).

State Sen. Ted Deutch (D) handily won tonight's FL-19 special election over '08 nominee Ed Lynch (R), and the AP called the race with Deutch leading, 62-36%. A conservative-leaning third-party candidate Jim McCormick (D) took 3%.

The race was never expected to be close, but some were watching to see if the health care debate would have an impact in this heavily-Dem CD. If appeared to have a negligible effect, as Deutch won with margins just slightly under the norm for Dems in the CD.

Deutch entered the contest with tons of advantages, including the fact that he outraised Lynch by a $1.4M-$100K margin, and was helped by a 2-1 Dem registration advantage. Need more evidence of the CD's Dem bona fides: Pres. Obama took 66% of the vote here, and ex-Rep. Robert Wexler (D) -- whom Deutch will replace -- never took less than 66% in any of his bids.

But while Lynch operated on a shoe-string budget, he believed that the large bloc of seniors in his CD -- 40% -- would give him a chance, especially considering polls show that group is strongly opposed to the newly enacted health care law. Indeed, he found support among the Tea Party crowd, and he appeared on Fox News Channel and conservative radio programs to rally conservatives to his bid.

But he found little fundraising success, and wasn't able to overcome the huge barriers that any GOPer would encounter in this CD, particularly an under-funded one.

While he may have been hoping for another Scott Brown-like upset, Lynch was no Scott Brown, and Deutch was no Martha Coakley (D), as he was a strong campaigner and didn't take the easy race for granted. The GOP correctly saw little hope for a shocker, and the NRCC never entertained any hint of interest in the race. In the end, all these elements added up to a strong Dem win.

The nat'l environment is awful for Dems, as today's Gallup poll (which gave GOPers a 4% lead on the Cong. generic ballot) shows, but a close race or a loss here would've meant Dems were in for historic losses on election night. That didn't happen. Look to special elections in PA-12 and HI-01 next month to give us a better feel for the mood of the electorate post-health care.

The AP has called the TX-17 GOP runoff for businessman Bill Flores (R), giving the party a candidate with deep pockets to take on entrenched Rep. Chet Edwards (D) in this heavily GOP CD.

Flores easily defeated '08 nominee Rob Curnock (R) -- the tally was 63-37% when the AP called the race. Curnock was counting on the name ID earned from his '08 bid against Edwards, when he took 46% of the vote, to lead him to victory in a low-turnout affair.

But Flores put over $300K of his own money into the contest, and eventually spent $750K in the primary/runoff campaigns, far outpacing the $175K Curnock spent on the race. That was the difference in the contest.

GOPers will welcome the news, since Flores' deep pockets will give them a shot against Edwards, who has managed to survive in a CD that gave George W. Bush 70% in '04 and John McCain 67% in '08. The GOP's task will be tougher this year, as Edwards typically fares better in midterms.

For Flores to knock off Edwards -- even with the favorable environment he's facing -- he'll need to convince voters that Edwards is out of the mainstream with the CD's conservative voters. So far, GOPers have been unsuccessful, and after 10 terms in office, Edwards has built up a reputation that won't be cheap to knock down. Flores has the resources to do it; we'll see if that's enough to finally take down Edwards.

Ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R-IN) used his campaign's first ad to reminisce about his tenure as a "conservative senator," even as his opponents do their best to distance themselves from DC.

In the 30-second spot, released just 3 weeks before the primary election, Coats also appeals to conservatives with his history of standing "up for life and the second amendment." He seeks to appeal to Tea Party members by planning to "reduce spending, repeal health care, and create jobs."

Coats' first ad, "Hoosier Values":

Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) doesn't want any surprises, according to a rider obtained by ABC News.

Palin, who can charge 6 figures for a speaking engagement, requires that any questions she gets from the audience be pre-screened. In fact, even questions from a moderator are to be pre-screened, according to the document.

Palin's representatives, Washington Speakers Bureau, keeps a tight lid on her events. Any press releases regarding the event have to be cleared through the bureau's offices, a process that can take up to 5 days. And a customer must provide a list of media attendees 10 days before the event, the rider says.

Once Palin gets to the event site -- traveling by first class ticket or by private aircraft larger than a 6-passenger Lear 60 -- her time is tightly controlled. Any guests at private receptions must be pre-screened, and when she speaks, Palin must have 2 bottles of water available with bendable straws. Meanwhile, Palin reserves the right to meet with heads of state when she travels to a speaking engagement outside the country.

But don't tell anyone. The 6-page document, which was dug out of the trash at a CA college that plans to host Palin for a fundraiser, includes a strict confidentiality poliy. Disclosure of the poliy "would cause irreparable harm to [Washington Speakers Bureau] and to the Speaker," the document claims.

Students at Cal State Stanislaus found the documents after university officials denied they had them. In a press conference today, state Sen. Leland Yee (D) released the documents and critized the officials for keeping them secret, ABC reported.

See the rest of the rider here [pdf].

There's a new candidate in the FL GOV race -- businessman Rick Scott (R).

Scott, an outspoken critic of the Dem-led health care reform effort, filed his paperwork with the FL Sec/State's office 4/9.

Last year, his organization, Conservatives for Patients' Rights, poured more than $4M into an anti-reform campaign, including a 30-minute documentary-style TV ad warning that Dems' reform plans would lead to gov't-run health care. His website touts him as a "conservative outsider" who will "hold government accountable."

Accompanying his grand entrance, Scott is launching a new TV ad as well. The spot, "Accountable":

Scott's late entry into the race, while unexpected, isn't shocking. There's been a decided lack of excitement among FL GOPers over their frontrunner, AG Bill McCollum (R) -- this despite the fact that McCollum is leading a group of the nation's AGs in waging a lawsuit against the health care reform law. State Sen. Paula Dockery (R) is also challenging McCollum, but she lags him both in funding and in the polls.

On the Dem side, CFO Alex Sink (D) has shaken up her campaign a third time amid grumblings that she has not been waging an aggressive effort.

Scott's viability as a candidate remains to be seen and may depend largely on how much of his own money he pours into his bid. But it will also be interesting to see where Scott positions against McCollum, who has taken the lead in the fight against health care reform.

CA SEN: Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) said she brought in $2.4M last quarter and has $8.7M in the bank. Her rivals are far behind; ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) raised $1.7M, ending the quarter with $2.8M in the bank. Last week, ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R) said he raised $1.6M.

IL SEN: Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) announced today he raised $1.2M in the first quarter, his best fundraising period to date. There was no word on his cash on hand in the campaign's statement, which does not bode well for his final total.

Giannoulias faced a tough primary against ex-Chicago IG David Hoffman (D) this quarter, which undoubtedly drained his resources. He has been beset with problems regarding his family's Broadway Bank, which may have cooled the donors' generosity a bit. Rep. Mark Kirk (R-10), raised $2.2M over the same period and has over $3M in the bank.

NH SEN: Rep. Paul Hodes (D) raised $665K and still has $1.66M in the bank.

OH SEN: Ex-Rep. Rob Portman (R) raised $2.3M and had $7.6M in the bank.

WI SEN: Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI) reported today that he raised over $1.3M in the first quarter, and has more than $4.2M cash on hand. Feingold's declared opponents, developer Terrence Wall (R) and businessman Dave Westlake (R), have not declared their totals, but neither is expected to have anywhere close to Feingold's figures.

Ex-WI Dept. of Commerce Sec./beer heir Dick Leinenkugel (R) and ex-Gov./ex-HHS Sec. Tommy Thompson (R) are both still mulling their options.

FL 08: Rep. Alan Grayson (D) will report raising $803K in the first quarter with $1.5M left over.

FL 24: Ex-Ruth's Chris CEO Craig Miller (R) raised $130K in the first 2 months of his campaign and gave himself another $210K. He'll report having $310K on hand.

TN 03: Atty Chuck Fleischmann (R) raised $720K and has $625K in the bank in his bid for Rep. Zach Wamp's (R) seat.

NM GOV: LG Diane Denish raised $1.1M over the last 6 months and still has $2.6M in the bank. Businessman/ex-NM GOP chair Allen Weh (R) raised $191K and gave himself $500K. Dona Ana Co. DA Susana Martinez (R) raised $428K and has $364K left to spend. Several other candidates had less in the bank.

SC GOV: Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) has $1.6M in the bank after raising $393K last quarter. AG Henry McMaster (R) has $1.4M left after raising $430K, while LG Andre Bauer (R) also has $1.4M left after pulling in $398K. State Rep. Nikki Haley raised $192K and has $530K on hand.

TN GOV: Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) raised $1.3M last quarter and had $3.5M in the bank. Ex-Rep. Zach Wamp (R) raised about $500K and still had $2.2M on hand. LG Ron Ramsey (R) has $2.2M in the bank; Ramsey didn't raise money last quarter because of a state law that prohibits state legislators from raising money during session. Businessman Mike McWherter (R) raised $100K last quarter.

As WH Counsel Bob Bauer and former communications director Anita Dunn lead the team tasked with picking a new SCOTUS justice, confirmability is a key consideration. And, for many of the top contenders, there's already a hint as to how they would do in the Senate.

Take Solicitor General Elena Kagan, confirmed as the government's lead attorney last March by a 61-31 vote. If Pres. Obama picks her, she will enter confirmation hearings having received yes votes from Sens. Tom Coburn (R-OK), Susan Collins (R-ME), Judd Gregg (R-NH), Orrin Hatch (R-UT), Jon Kyl (R-AZ), Richard Lugar (R-IN) and Olympia Snowe (R-ME).

She would have more room to grow, as well. A total of 4 Dem senators did not vote on her nomination, though that number includes Sen. Ted Kennedy (D-MA), who has since passed away. All told, Kagan could be in a position to get as many as 67 votes, assuming every GOPer voted the same way they did last time.

But a SCOTUS nomination is much different from any other appointment, and GOPers would have an easy way out of voting in her favor a second time around. Still, earlier confirmation votes are a good measure of the ceiling one candidate might reach.

Federal Judge Merrick Garland, another short-list finalist, won confirmation by a wider 76-23 margin when he was appointed in '97. There's been a lot of turnover in the Senate since then, but Sens. Bob Bennett (R-UT), Kit Bond (R-MO), Thad Cochran (R-MS), Jim Inhofe (R-OK), John McCain (R-AZ) and Pat Roberts (R-KS) joined Collins, Hatch, Lugar and Snowe in supporting his nomination.

Federal Judge Diane Wood and DHS Sec. Janet Napolitano, the final 2 members on most short lists, had an easier time. Both their nominations -- Wood in '95, Napolitano's in '09 -- sailed through the Senate with unanimous consent. Still, given some of Wood's decisions and Napolitano's tenure at DHS, both could be tougher sells in the Senate.

Update: An astute reader points out we were less than clear in our take on Wood and Napolitano. We've clarified the last graph.

The Hotline's Amy Walter writes:

Will wounded RNC Chairman Michael Steele cost the GOP this fall? While there's often lots of drama that comes with the job of a national committee chairman, it doesn't always mean disaster.

Take 2006, when then-DCCC Chairman Rahm Emanuel let everyone know just how much he detested DNC Chair Howard Dean's "50-state strategy." In the end, of course, their disagreements didn't stop Democrats from posting huge gains that fall.

While the media has been obsessed with the fallout surrounding Steele's latest high-profile flub, the handful of GOP strategists I spoke with last week -- all of whom have experience at one of the GOP party committees on their resume, and most of whom are working with House and Senate candidates this year -- weren't panicked.

Sure, they worried that these scandals could impact the RNC's ability to attract donors. But they didn't seem concerned that Republican candidates would be overwhelmingly outspent. More important, they see that the political environment is already tilting so solidly in their direction that it will take more than a strip club scandal to take them off course.

...

While [outside 527 groups like American Crossroads] succeed in running multimillion-dollar ad campaigns, they often don't attend to not-so-glamorous areas such as absentee ballot programs and get-out-the-vote efforts that can be the difference between winning and losing. The RNC's biggest success in recent years wasn't TV ads, but the 72-hour program that was credited with turning out a record number of GOP voters in 2002 and 2004.

But given that the two people most closely associated with this program were Gillespie and Rove, one has to assume that they are taking this sort of thing into consideration. Moreover, they are smart enough to know which states and congressional districts are the top targets. Unlike outside groups with ideological axes to grind, these guys are (theoretically) committed solely to electing GOP candidates. And they don't have to jump through bureaucratic hoops or endure the media microscope like Steele and the RNC have to.

Read the full column here.

IN state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (R) is looking for support from Tea Party activists in his bid to replace Sen. Evan Bayh (D), but he'll have to explain to the anti-spending crowd why he accepted more than $150K in government handouts.

Stutzman, whose family owns 3 farms, has accepted a total of $156,907 in farm subsidies between '97 and '06, as the Washington Post's Dave Weigel reported last week.
Stutzman, running an uphill battle against ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R) and ex-Rep. John Hostettler (R), needs Tea Party activists if he's going to have any shot. He's told the crowd he wants to "incrementally move away" from farm subsidies as national policy. And, he told Weigel, he isn't feeling any heat from those activists.

"I think we're the front-runner amongst the Tea Party groups," Stutzman told Hotline OnCall in a brief interview today. "We've won both straw polls where all 5 candidates have been."

What could be troubling, though, is that the government money Stutzman received for his family's corn, soybean and wheat crops didn't even go to his home state. Instead, according to a database maintained by the Environmental Working Group, $106K has gone to his family's farm in St. Joseph Co., MI -- just across the border from Stutzman's hometown, Howe.

That farm, Stutzman said, is operated by his father and his brothers. Still, Tea Party activists in IN largely said they oppose farm subsidies, but none blamed Stutzman for accepting them.

"I don't like subsidies at all, but there's other people in our group that may not feel that way. We've got independents, Democrats, Republicans that belong to our Tea Party group," said James Bratten, a Tea Party organizer in Evansville.

"We'd rather not have the subsidies. I'm sure Marlin would say the same thing," added Diane Hubbard, an Indianapolis Tea Party organizer.

At the same time, she hastily added: "I would, quite frankly, be surprised if [Stutzman] had over half the Tea Party vote."

Voters in FL and TX will head to the polls today to fill a vacant House seat and to pick nominees in several runoff races for the Nov. midterms.

Dems aren't sweating the open seat up for election today; voters will choose a replacement for Rep. Robert Wexler (D-FL), who quit his job earlier this year to go to work at a DC-based non-profit.

State Sen. Ted Deutch (D) is the overwhelming favorite in the Boca Raton-based district. Pres. Obama won two-thirds of the vote there, and Deutch has spent about $1.2M, compared with just about $100K for building contractor Ed Lynch (R). Neither national party has spent money on ads in the district.

Meanwhile, GOPers in Waco, TX, will choose between businessmen Rob Curnock and Bill Flores, competing for the right to challenge Rep. Chet Edwards (D) this Nov. Flores led the March 2 primary with 33% compared with Curnock's 28.7%.

National GOPers prefer Flores, who can self-fund part of his race; he's already put $490K in on his own behalf, FEC records show. Curnock has put $58K into his own bid. And in a year in which GOPers are expected to do well, Edwards could be in trouble; Obama got just 32% of the vote in his district. But Edwards is a survivor -- he won re-election in '94 with 59% of the vote, though he only beat Curnock by a slim 53%-46% margin in '08.

On the other side of the state, Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) will find out who his opponent will be when attorney Quico Canseco (R) matches up with ex-CIA officer Will Hurd (R). Hurd narrowly led the first round of voting in the district, which stretches from the San Antonio and Laredo outskirts to the suburbs of El Paso along the Mexican border.

But Canseco has the ability to fund his own bid against Rodriguez. Running in the '08 GOP primary, Canseco spent freely of his own money, loaning his campaign more than $900K. This time, Canseco has lent himself about $56K. Hurd has raised $265K.

Runoff elections among candidates vying to take on Reps. Ron Paul (R), Ruben Hinojosa (D), Charlie Gonzalez (D), Solomon Ortiz (D) and Eddie Bernice Johnson (D) are also taking place today, though all 5 are expected to be easily re-elected in Nov.

The next set of primaries roll around on May 4, when voters in IN, NC and OH head to the polls.

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) just can't seem to catch a break.

As if last week's news that he's lagging far behind ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) in both the money race and the polls weren't bad enough, this week brings a trifecta of new headaches for Crist.

-- Thursday, 4/15: Pres. Obama is slated to visit FL to deliver a speech on the admin.'s "bold new course" for NASA. He'll also be attending back-to-back fundraisers in Miami, one at the home of Gloria and Emilio Estefan. Even if the 44th POTUS and Crist, FL's 44th gov., don't cross paths this week, expect Rubio's camp to use the visit in order to continue chipping away at Crist's conservative bona fides.

-- Friday, 4/16: Rubio headlines a post-Tax Day rally in Vero Beach organized by the Indian River Tea Party. The event caps off a 4-day, "Take a Stand" bus tour in which Rubio will meet with voters in communities large and small in the central part of the state. Rubio's camp smartly timed the tour, the first of the race, so that it lines up with a number of Tea Party-sponsored events around Tax Day.

GOPers lead the generic Congressional ballot by 4 points, according to this week's Gallup tracking poll as trends begin to suggest the minority party will take back the House.

The Gallup survey shows registered voters prefer the GOP candidate by a 48% to 44% margin, the largest lead the GOP has held all year. In fact, it's the third straight week the generic GOP candidate has been ahead or tied with a generic Dem.

It has also been three weeks since health care legislation was signed into law. Voter enthusiasm, on both sides of the aisle, rose just after Dems scored their major legislative win, but Dems still face a serious deficit; 48% of GOPers say they are very enthusiastic about voting this fall, while just 30% of Dems say the same.

GOPers also hold a lead among independent voters, who say they would favor a GOP candidate by a 45%-34% margin.

According to a model developed by Emory Univ. political scientist Alan Abramowitz, the 4-point lead would be more than enough for the GOP to take back the seats they need to hold a majority. According to the model, if the election were held today, Dems would win just 210 seats, giving the GOP a 15-seat majority.

Meanwhile, Pres. Obama's approval rating stands at 47%, according to the latest Gallup tracking survey (Pollster.com pegs Obama's approval rating at 47.2%). Past trends show a president's party loses an average of 40 seats if the incumbent's approval rating is below 50%.

Historically, Dems hold a generic ballot advantage. Dems led the generic ballot by 23 points in '06, when they swept back into power. GOPers have held advantages only a handful of times, including a 5-point edge in '94, when the party won back the majority; and a similar margin in '02, when they gained seats in George W. Bush's first midterm election.

Generic ballot tests taken just before an election have proven a reasonably accurate predictor of electoral outcomes in recent years, as Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal wrote this week. But this far out, the results are less reliable.

"World News" and "Evening News" each led with the nuclear summit in DC. "Nightly News" led with the Dow closing above 11K.

CNN's Bash caught up with Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) for an interview that aired live on "Situation Room" 4/12 p.m.

Brown, on voting with Dems to extend unemployment benefits: "People are hurting. And I think it's important to move the process along, because when I came here, it's my opinion that things are broken and there's a logjam here in Capitol Hill. And it's my hope that I can help move things forward. So I'm going to do just that and vote for cloture, which allows the process to move forward."

More Brown: "But make no mistake, while people are hurting, the people who are paying the bills are also hurting. And we need to make sure we find a way to pay for this. So I'm looking forward to moving it forward, but I'm going to reserve my rights on the final bill, to make sure that we can at least find a realistic way to pay for it, by using unallocated stimulus monies, and taking a little bit from here and there and finding the funds to ultimately pay for it, because one of the biggest complaints that I hear is that we want to help people that don't have jobs."

After the jump, more on unemployment, and Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) weighs in on nukes.

Good Tuesday morning. We're still trying to get over the fact that the Pulitzer committee snubbed us. We were looking forward to a big win in the political blogging category. But then we recalled that category doesn't exist.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who are going to matter in politics today:

SEN. CARL LEVIN: Levin today kicks off a Senate Banking subcommittee investigation into the origins of the financial crisis today, a hearing that will again shine the spotlight on Dem efforts to advance regulatory reform legislation through Congress. The WH has said it wants a bill before Congress adjourns for election day; Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT) is negotiating for space on the Senate floor before the Memorial Day recess.

Regulatory reform, Dems believe, is the silver bullet that could save them seats this fall. After all, they'll portray themselves as on Main Street's side, against GOPers and Wall Street. And GOPers recognize the threat; party insiders say, by an overwhelming margin, the GOP should work alongside Dems in order to pass a bill.

So which track do Dodd, Levin and Dems pursue? They can negotiate a bipartisan bill with GOPers like Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN) and Richard Shelby (R-AL), or they can take a harder line and force GOPers to vote against the measure. This is Dodd's last year in Congress, and his urge to pass a bill may outweigh some Dems' urges to force their rivals into a tough spot.

ANDY STERN: Sources tell several news outlets that Stern, the powerful head of SEIU, will step down ahead of the end of his term. The head of a 2.2M-member union, and perhaps the most politically active one at that, Stern is one of the most powerful players in Dem politics today. Expect his successor to play a big role in the '10 midterms and the '12 campaign, depending upon when Stern actually steps aside (Stern will address his future during a meeting of union leaders this week in DC).

Ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham wants to go to DC to continue his career of public service, he says in his camp's first ad.

The Army Reservist, who spent time in Iraq as a prosecutor after signing up following the Sept. 11 terrorist attacks, touts his career in the Senate and implies a connection to Pres. Obama -- an undated photo with Obama shows up in the spot.

Cunningham's first ad, "Different War":

Cunningham is running for the right to face Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) in Nov. He has to get past Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D) and atty Kenneth Lewis (D) in the May 4 primary; DC Dems are quietly backing Cunningham, even though he didn't get in the race until Dec. '09.

Burr is on the air with his own first ad, showing off his work on behalf of NC voters.

We're back from New Orleans, where southern GOPers gathered to hear from possible WH'12 contenders and plot strategy for the '10 midterms. Some wowed. Others fell flat. Our look at the winners and losers of this year's gathering:

WINNERS

Ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich: He's toyed with, and discarded, the idea of running before, so we were skeptical of Gingrich's intentions toward the '12 race. That is, before we saw him speak this weekend. Gingrich looks like he's lost weight, he entered to a rock star's welcome and offered a forward-looking vision for the GOP, and he's great at offering the conservative crowd red meat.

What tipped us off most: Gingrich's clear attitude change. We've seen him answer enough questions to know he can get a little snippy with his interrogators. At the SRLC, Gingrich was patient and welcoming, even when one questioner disagreed with Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), about whom Gingrich has only positive things to say. Instead of vehemently disagreeing, Gingrich said only he was "less passionate" about the issue than the audience member. That sounded like a way to respectfully deflect a question at an IA town hall.

MS Gov. Haley Barbour and TX Gov. Rick Perry: Both Barbour's and Perry's teams asked that their men be kept off the straw poll ballot -- more to make it obvious that their focus is on the midterms than on WH'12. Perry faces re-election, while Barbour has to get GOP GOVs elected as head of the RGA.

But both gave well-received speeches. Perry offered 10th Amendment-based red meat, while Barbour exhorted attendees to get out and participate in the process. Barbour will consider a WH bid in '12, a top advisor told us this weekend, while Perry insists he has no interest in a WH bid. But they both won fans this weekend, if, by some strange measure, they decided to make a bid.

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney: Hard not to call Romney a winner when his shadow organization propelled him to a narrow 1-vote victory, even though he didn't show up. An analysis of the vote total showed Romney won more than twice the votes than the number of registrations his backers purchased, and his strong showing among those who said he was their second choice is a positive.

Still, Romney skipped the event to continue his book tour, and he has yet to address questions about Commonwealth Care program. To clarify: He's answered the media's questions. He hasn't answered the base's. That could continue to haunt him.

After the jump, SRLC's losers.

Rep. John Culberson (R-TX) slammed Pres. Obama's decision to end the next phase of American manned space flight, calling it part of a pattern that has weakened the country.

In an interview with Hotline OnCall, Culberson said the admin's decision to cancel the Constellation program amounts to a surrender of the U.S.'s historic position as the global leader in space.

The Constellation program is billions of dollars over budget and years behind schedule. Obama's proposed budget, released in Feb., would cancel funding for the program. Without it, Culberson said, the U.S. will have no manned space flight capabilities in the future.

"He's shut down the whole thing. He's proposing to cancel America's manned space program, which is typical of this administration's pattern of apologizing for America's success, kowtowing to our enemies, bowing to foreign dictators and their obsession with trying to make terrorists like us," Culberson said.

"In my mind, it's just part of a pattern of behavior. Once again, here's Obama surrendering the high ground, walking away, surrendering America's leadership in an area where we have led the world. It's just another illustration of how urgent it is that we get these people out of the White House as quickly as possible," he added. "It is maddening."

But Culberson, who represents a district in the NASA-heavy Houston area, said the problem pre-dates the current administration. He blames George W. Bush, who first proposed the Constellation program -- and its mission of returning astronauts to the moon and, eventually, sending them to Mars -- in a major address before the '04 State of the Union. Bush never followed up the address with the funding NASA would have required to properly operate Constellation.

"This is one of many unfortunate legacies left to us by the Bush administration. Unfortunately, President Bush's quote, vision for space exploration was nothing more than a press release and a publicity stunt for the 2004 election. Because it was never followed up with sufficient funding to fulfill what he laid out," Culberson said.

"I'm very unhappy about the fact that the Bush administration got the hopes and expectations of the nation and these engineers and scientists and astronauts, they got their hopes up and they didn't fulfill them. It's a terrible thing to do."

For more on the Constellation program, Pres. Obama's April 15 visit to the Kennedy Space Center and the debate over manned space flight in the U.S., check out your OnCall editor's write-up in this week's National Journal. Non-subscribers can find a free preview we published over the weekend here.

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) is up with a new TV ad taking aim at his SEN rival, ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), as a deal-making insider with close ties to disgraced ex-state House Speaker Ray Sansom (R) and suggesting that the truth about Rubio's record may be yet to come.

"Marco Rubio. It's not just what we know, it's what we don't know -- yet," the ad's announcers intone.

Like Crist's first TV ad, the new 30-second spot is a negative one that seeks to take some of the sheen off Rubio's image as a fresh-faced rising star among conservatives. It comes just days after Crist announced a lackluster $1.1M fundraising haul in the 1stQ -- one-third as much as Rubio -- and as pundits have begun floating Rubio's name as a potential WH contender.

This isn't the first time Crist has brought up Sansom, who resigned from the state House in Feb. and remains embroiled in an ethics storm, and into it's not likely to be the last. The St. Petersburg Times reported Saturday that an ex-FL GOP staffer charged nearly $20K in plane tickets for Sansom and his family on a FL GOP credit card.

Crist's claim, however, is somewhat undercut by his own close ties to ex-FL GOP chair Jim Greer.

We culled news reports over the weekend to bring you the most comprehensive list of names Pres. Obama might consider for Justice John Paul Stevens' Supreme Court seat.

The long list, which includes anyone named in a media report this weekend, presented in alphabetical order:

• Sec/State Hillary Clinton
• Federal Appeals Judge Merrick Garland
• MI Gov. Jennifer Granholm
• AG Eric Holder
• Solicitor General Elena Kagan
• Stanford Prof. Pamela Karlan
• Sen. Amy Klobuchar (D-MN)
• State Dept. legal advisor Harold Koh
• Harvard Law dean Martha Minow
• DHS Sec. Janet Napolitano
• MA Gov. Deval Patrick (D)
• Ex-GA Supreme Court Justice Leah Sears
• U-Chicago Law Prof. Geoffrey Stone
• Stanford Prof. Kathleen Sullivan
• WH Office of Information and Reg. Affairs head Cass Sunstein
• Appellate Judge Kim Wardlaw
• Sen. Sheldon Whitehouse (D-RI)
• Federal Appeals Judge Diane Wood

The consensus first tier includes Kagan, Wood and Garland, while some add Napolitano to the list.

A DHS spokesperson over the weekend said Napolitano was "flattered," but that she's focused on her duties. Patrick's answer, when asked if he would be interested: "No." Granholm's office released a statement that leaves any door wide open.

But Klobuchar had the best response, when asked whether she would be a contender. Appearing on MSNBC's "Hardball" on Friday, Klobuchar said she had skeletons in her past.

""I couldn't get it because of my past speeches. You know, all the times -- remember Sotomayor, the 'wise Latina woman'? You can't imagine how many times I referred to myself as a 'wise Slovenian woman,' Chris. It's over," she said.

In a surprise announcement, Variety reports that Conan O'Brien will join TBS in the 11pm timeslot in November. O'Brien's as-yet-unnamed show will replace "Lopez Tonight," which will move to midnight ET. O'Brien's show will run Monday-Thursday.

"In three months I've gone from network television to Twitter to performing live in theaters, and now I'm headed to basic cable," O'Brien said. "My plan is working perfectly."

Talks between O'Brien and the cable net began last week, with "Lopez" host George Lopez personally calling O'Brien.

"I can't think of anything better than doing my show with Conan as my lead-in," Lopez said. "It's the beginning of a new era in late-night comedy."

Rep. John Boozman (R) has launched his first campaign ad as he seeks to oust Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), touting his "Christian upbringing" and family values.

"Taught to study hard and dream big, John Boozman earned a degree, played Razorback football and opened up a small-town eye clinic, which became a bigtime success," the ad says, focusing entirely on his biography and entirely skipping references to policy or to DC.

That's in marked contrast to 3 other contenders in the race, all 3 of whom signaled they would make their campaigns about the broken system in DC. Lincoln's first ad has her surrounded by squabbling children. State Sen. Gilbert Baker (R) labels both Boozman and Lincoln as DC insiders. And LG Bill Halter (D) promises to take on DC interests.

Boozman's first ad:

Ex-Rep. Rob Portman (R) will report raising $2.35M in the first fundraising quarter, his best quarter to date.

He begins the 2nd quarter with $7.6M on hand and more than 13K individual donors.

Campaign spokeswoman Jessica Towhey said 80% of the donations have come from inside the Buckeye State.

Portman, who doesn't have a primary now that auto dealer Tom Ganley abandoned his bid in favor of a race against Rep. Betty Sutton (D), likely will have a lower burn rate than his two Dem challengers. He spent $735K in Q1.

The 2 Dems in the race, LG Lee Fisher and Sec/State Jennifer Brunner, are far behind Portman in the money chase. At the beginning of the quarter, Fisher had $1.8M in the bank, while Brunner had just $60K on hand.

National Dems may be quietly backing ex-Rep. Ed Case (D), but their allies in labor are behind state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa (D), giving the party more headaches as it races to keep a vulnerable open House seat in a May special election.

Labor unions are set to drop 2 mail pieces in support of Hanabusa this week, a source tells Hotline OnCall, aimed at convincing union workers that Case's record is out of step with labor's political goals. An AFL-CIO mailer and one from the Longshoreman's union highlight some issues on which Case stands against labor positions while touting Hanabusa's work on unions' behalf.

Hanabusa has backing from the HI teachers union, a powerful force in state politics. And the mailers are aimed at the district's 52K AFL-CIO members and 30K Working America members, according to union figures, a significant portion of the electorate.

Case, meanwhile, hewed to more centrist positions during his time in Congress. He left in '07 after falling short in a primary bid against Sen. Daniel Akaka (D), a race that caused rifts between Case and the state party establishment. Both Akaka and Sen. Daniel Inouye (D) back Hanabusa.

The race has become a problem for the incumbent party in recent weeks as national Dems worry Hanabusa's record in the state legislature makes her unelectable. The DCCC quietly encouraged Case to hire top-notch consultants to aid his bid, though they haven't publicly endorsed him; if the DCCC does, they run the risk of offending Inouye, Akaka and some within the HI establishment.

Instead, the party has focused on Honolulu City Councillor Charles Djou (R), hitting him with new ads questioning his views on taxes. The DCCC has spent $47K on the ads so far, according to filings made with the FEC.

The all-mail-in election is going to give both parties almost 3 weeks to turn out their supporters. Voters will begin receiving their ballots around May 2. They have until May 22 to return their ballots.

Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D) resigned earlier this year to focus on his GOV bid.

Good Monday morning. No more New Orleans datelines, unfortunately. If political reporters are a little slow with their scoops today, it may be because le bon temps roulered a bit too much.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who matter in politics today:

PRES. OBAMA: The WH kicks off a 2-day summit aimed at boosting nuclear security today, with a series of bilateral meetings and a working dinner for delegation chiefs this evening. Obama spent much of yesterday meeting with heads of state, too.

Nukes are going to play a surprisingly big role in politics over the next few months. Following Obama's trip to Prague, where he signed a new START treaty with Russia, he hosts nations interested in securing the world's nuclear arsenal. Next month, Obama will travel to New York City for a review conference for nations that have signed the Nuclear Non-Proliferation Treaty.

Candidate Obama was all about a long-term goal of reducing the influence of nuclear weapons in the world. But Pres. Obama has a different concern: The Senate. And legislatively, it's going to be yet another fight. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) said yesterday on "Fox News Sunday" he didn't believe Obama could get the 67 votes necessary to ratify the START II treaty, while Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) said it would be at least a year before the issue comes up.

SEN. JOHN THUNE: For clues on how the GOP will react to the START treaty, keep a careful eye on Thune. Last year, the Senate GOP Policy Committee, which Thune heads, laid out a comprehensive strategy the party should follow on a new agreement with Russia. And, the memo confirmed, GOPers are already looking for ways to make the agreement a political negative for Obama.

"The United States should not pay for what is free," says the memo, obtained by Foreign Policy magazine. "Russia's nuclear numbers will decline dramatically in the coming years with or without an arms control treaty. The United States should not make important concessions in return for something that will happen in any event."

If this weekend at the SRLC taught us anything, it's that the WH'12 field, for GOPers, is far from complete. With no opponent in his '10 re-election bid, Thune may take advantage of his knowledge of nuclear negotiations to build his national profile. Our colleague, CongressDaily's Erin McPike, picked up serious buzz among delegates this weekend, and we find it hard to believe that the well-funded, young (and basketball-playing) senator won't at least consider making a run.

Our second look at fundraising results out over the last few days:

AZ 08: Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) raised $490K in the first quarter. She has $1.95M on hand.

AR 01: Radio broadcaster Rick Crawford (R) raised $190K in his bid to replace retiring Rep. Marion Berry (D). He has $200K in the bank.

CO 07: Rep. Ed Perlmutter (D) raised $330K and has almost $1.25M in the bank.

CT 04: State Sen. Dan Debicella (R) raised $206K in his bid against Rep. Jim Himes (D). Debicella has $415K in the bank.

HI 01: State Sen. Colleen Hanabusa (D) has raised more than $450K in the first quarter. She, ex-Rep. Ed Case (D) and Honolulu City Councillor Charles Djou (R) will face off in the May 22 special election.

IA 03: Ex-college wrestling coach Jim Gibbons (R) raised $162K and has $265K in the bank, the Des Moines Register reported.

MS 04: Rep. Gene Taylor has filed his FEC reports, which show he raised $41K in the quarter and has $221K on hand. State Rep. Steven Palazzo (R) raised $125K and will show more than $100K in the bank, his campaign said.

NH 02: '02 nominee Katrina Swett (D) raised $325K in the first quarter and has $1M in the bank. The money comes largely from Swett's '08 NH SEN bid, which she abandoned once Jeanne Shaheen (D) got in the race. Ex-Rep. Charlie Bass (R) raised $155K and will show $262K in the bank.

NY 01: Businessman Randy Altschuler (R) will show $1.5M in the bank when he files with the FEC, the New York Post reported. He didn't say how much he had raised; at the end of the year, Altschuler had $775K on hand.

NY 20: Rep. Scott Murphy (D) raised $475K in the first quarter. He has $1.1M in the bank.

ND AL: Rep. Earl Pomeroy (D) pulled in $408K last quarter and has $1.6M in the bank. State Rep. Rick Berg (R), who won the state party's endorsement last month, said he raised $383K since kicking off his bid.

PA 12: Ex-John Murtha aide Mark Critz (D) raised $382K in the 5 weeks since entering the race. Businessman Tim Burns will show $340K in the bank.

PA 15: Rep. Charlie Dent (R) raised $431K in the first quarter, ending with $825K in the bank. Bethlehem Mayor John Callahan (D) raised $320K, but he also has $825K on hand.