Dems Hold Off On Polling
Amid a turbulent political climate, many Dem members of Congress held off polling their districts during the first quarter, hoping to get a more accurate look at the landscape before they begin their '10 campaigns in earnest.
Pollsters and House Dem leaders have warned incumbents that results they received during the height of the health care debate would not present an accurate picture of the electorate. While benchmark polls are usually taken early in the cycle, FEC reports show most of the Dem caucus took that advice.
Tellingly, those who decided to poll anyway have not released results, suggesting those polls show them performing poorly against their potential or generic GOP rivals.
The list of incumbents who paid pollsters last quarter includes both vulnerable freshmen, like Reps. Debbie Halvorson (D-IL) and Harry Teague (D-NM), and entrenched incumbents, like Reps. David Obey (D-WI) and Earl Pomeroy (D-ND).
None of the half dozen Dems who appear to have polled last quarter released their results. Halvorson, who spent $17.5K at the Dem polling firm Anzalone Liszt on Feb. 10, denied through a spokesman that her campaign had conducted a poll. It was, the spokesman said, payment for past polling expenses.
Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) has spent the most on polling this cycle, blowing through $42K for 2 surveys conducted by Cooper Secrest Associates. Donnelly's campaign declined to comment on his poll results. Meanwhile, Obey spent $30K for a Feb. poll conducted by Hart Research Associates, the well-regarded Dem firm, and Pomeroy spent another $20K there for a Jan. poll.
Sometimes, though, polls can lead to action. Rep. Ike Skelton (D-MO), who commissioned a poll last quarter, has since begun employing an opposition research firm. Skelton will face the winner of a GOP primary in which ex-state Rep. Vicky Hartzler (R) is seen as the front-runner.
Candidates frequently release benchmark polls to the public if they show strong results -- or even if they only show the slimmest possibility that a contender may win. We've heard rumors of polls, conducted during the health care debate, that show incumbent Dems in terrible shape. It remains notable, though, that more GOPers haven't produced their own polls showing the same.
Updated: Halvorson's campaign paid a past due bill. We have updated this post to reflect that.