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Monday's Starting Lineup

Good Monday morning. Welcome to Opening Day, when hope springs anew for baseball fans everywhere. It's also the perfect day to pull your seersucker suits out of the closet.

Here's today's appropriately-named Starting Lineup, previewing the people who matter in politics today:

PRES. OBAMA: It's the second week of recess, which means Obama will own the stage more so than he does when House and Senate GOPers are in DC. The admin spent the weekend touting economic progress, a sign that the long-promised pivot to jobs and the economy is finally at hand. And, in truth, the outlook is good for Dems; while the unemployment figure may not move significantly, the nation is likely to add thousands of jobs between now and Nov.

Whether it's health care or immigration or regulatory reform or a Supreme Court vacancy, cable news will jump on a different topic every day. But the electorate will care more about the economy than anything else until the recovery is complete; even at the height of the health care battle, jobs and the economy remained the most important issue on voters' minds. The question isn't whether the recovery will be good for Dems this fall; it's whether it will be good enough. Convincing voters that things are on the right track is much harder when the process is ongoing. That's what Obama will focus on for the foreseeable future.

GOPERS: If the recovery does amount to something, it will put serious pressure on the GOP to come up with positive alternatives of their own, rather than a reflexive opposition to Dem plans. During the stimulus fight and over the past year, we looked around for anyone within the GOP sounding the alarm; what would they do, we wondered, if voters began to think the stimulus and the Dem agenda has worked? To be clear, voters aren't convinced it's worked yet, but with hundreds of thousands of new jobs added every month, the possibility exists. Our hunt for the GOPer sounding a note of caution continues.

Meanwhile, if GOPers are going to put out their positive vision for the future, they need to answer another fundamental question: Who gets to write it? RNC chair Michael Steele said this morning on "Good Morning America" he's been in contact with Newt Gingrich and House leadership about the new effort, and that he's pushing "this idea of first principles." But House Min. Leader John Boehner has said Steele will not play a role in crafting the new document (Rep. Kevin McCarthy is tasked with drafting a version).

What's more, a new GOP committee, American Crossroads, is forming to spend $50M on House and Senate races this year, as The Fix reports this morning, and its leadership ensures that it will be seen as a shadow RNC. Ex-RNC chair Mike Duncan, ex-RNC co-chair Jo Ann Davidson and ex-RNC chair Ed Gillespie are heading up the group, along with Jim Dyke, a consultant who helped Steele get elected but who has left the inner circle. Their efforts could help, but they'll be seen as the latest evidence that the GOP remains divided even as they head toward big wins.

JOHN PAUL STEVENS: Talk of Stevens' impending retirement is getting louder. Stevens has given a number of interviews of late in which he openly contemplates leaving the Court -- including for long must-read profiles in the Washington Post and New York Times this weekend -- and speculation is running rampant that the WH has already narrowed their lists to a few finalists.

Stevens is the Court's leading liberal, making it likely that the eventual nominee will be in the same mold. GOPers have an interest in creating a fight over the next nominee; a fight fires up the base, while Tea Party activists and other conservatives will punish any GOPer seen as acquiescing to the WH this year. Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) this weekend refused to rule out a GOP-led filibuster, meaning the nasty partisan tone we've seen in recent weeks could only get worse this summer.

EX-VP DAN QUAYLE: The former veep has stayed away from politics since a short-lived bid for the WH in '00, but this year Quayle is slowly emerging as a voice within the GOP. His latest missive: A Sunday op-ed for the Washington Post, in which he urged GOP leaders to co-opt the Tea Party movement, rather than let it splinter off into a Ross Perot-like third party movement that would only divide the right. Quayle would know; the Perot movement cost him his job in '92.

Meanwhile, he's also endorsed several candidates this cycle, including ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R-IN), who is running for the seat Quayle once held, and NH atty Ovide Lamontagne (R), running for another open seat. And Quayle is pushing Phoenix as the best option for the '12 GOP convention; his son, Ben, is running for Rep. John Shadegg's (R-AZ) seat.

At 63 years old, Quayle's not young, but he's by no means too old for a political comeback. While we doubt we'll see him in IA or NH in the near future, here's a thought: Several of his former close advisors are lining up behind Rep. Mike Pence (R-IN), who could benefit from whatever political good will Quayle has left in conservative circles.

1 Comments

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