NM GOV: Martinez Up With First Spot
Dona Ana Co. DA Susana Martinez (R) launched her first TV ad of the NM GOV race today, a 30-second spot emphasizing her background as a "tough prosecutor" who "backs down to no one."
The ad, "Bold Change":
The ad comes amid major shifts in the GOP field in recent weeks following the March 13 pre-primary GOP convention. Despite her low name ID, Martinez was the surprise winner at the convention, winning 47% of the delegate vote in a 5-candidate field. Businessman/ex-NM GOP chair Allen Weh (R), who 2 weeks ago began pouring his considerable fortune into TV ads touting his military background, received 26%.
Ex-Sen. Pete Domenici (R) son/atty Pete Domenici Jr. (R) had been expected to benefit from his famous pedigree, but he emerged from the convo with only 5% -- well below the 20% threshold required to earn a spot on the ballot. State Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones (R) received 14% and PR firm owner/ex-Gov. Johnson mgr. Doug Turner (R) got 9%.
While Domenici, Arnold-Jones and Turner all plan to get on the ballot by submitting signatures on their nominating petitions, the race for the GOP nod appears to have settled into a two-way battle between Martinez and Weh.
All 5 candidates will face off this Saturday at the Dona Ana Co. GOP Lincoln-Reagan Dinner. The winner of the 6/1 primary will go on to face LG Diane Denish (D) in the fall.
The GOP Primary Convention in NM is all about political insiders and also who can jam the most people into the conventions. Its a simple who can get the most people there kind of game. The real news about this race comes from the recent Rasmussen poll showing Allen Weh within 10% of Diane Denish in a head-to-head general election and Doug Turner within 9%. This shows that people want a governor with business experience and no political baggage. Susana might be tough on crime, but she has been in government all her career, which doesn't resonate with people in NM because of the recent troubles with the Richardson/Denish administration. Doug Turner has risen in the polls because he is an outsider and many 'outsiders' that have ran for office in the past in NM have won. Most recently was former Governor Gary Johnson.
DOUG'S GONNA WIN!
All 5 candidates will be on the ballot, since they all submitted FAR more signatures than required to get there, and went into the pre-primary convention with those signatures.
The recent Rassmusen Poll had all the GOP candidates polling between 30-35% vs. Denish's 45-52%. By the way, the margin of error was 4.5%, meaning there are no "front runners" here among the GOP crowd, despite the media desperately wanting one or other to be.
Of all the candidates, Domenici has raised the least money since his poor performance at the statewide pre-primary convention.