Rethinking The Ohio Dem Primary
The Senate primary season is beginning to look like the first round of the NCAA basketball tournament, as a string of stunning upsets might be right around the corner.
The DSCC has been busy crowing that divisive GOP primaries may serve to keep the GOP's pickup opportunities at bay, while the NRSC's noise has suggested that Dem primaries are far more serious than their own.
They may both be right.
Take OH, for one. DSCC chair Bob Menendez has been upfront about his support for LG Lee Fisher (D) over Sec/State Jennifer Brunner (D) in the May 4 primary. But Dems in OH and DC have begun to whisper that Brunner may just pull out a come-from-behind primary victory. It's a long-shot, they say, but even those who have worked against her behind the scenes say it's possible.
An OH-connected Dem who is officially neutral but loosely affiliated with the Fisher team said, "It's an open race. I wouldn't be surprised if either of them pulls it out."
Political observers in OH say in what many expect will be a low turnout primary, Brunner could be better positioned due to her connection with the base.
For one thing, Fisher sent around a general-election style mailer proclaiming that DC is broken, which Brunner quickly denounced. In fact, she took to the liberal DailyKos website to pen an entire missive about it, linking Fisher with the Tea Party.
On top of that, in her official capacity, Brunner issued a directive requiring primary voters who wish to switch sides to sign petitions that claim that they adhere to the principles of the party.
Fisher complained that a message like that only turns voters away; the problem is that base voters might just like it.
Indeed, in a fundraising solicitation the campaign issued, campaign manager David Dettman complained, "When Jennifer issued a directive in her role as Secretary of State to enforce a law on political party affiliation that has been on the books for nearly 60 years and that the Ohio legislature has declined to change, her primary opponent easily took the bait of the Ohio Republican Party and went negative on this issue which has nothing to do with the U.S. Senate or the role that Jennifer Brunner will play there."
Dettman went further: "If it wasn't so sad it would be amusing that afterward the Republican Party thanked Mr. Fisher, while Democrats (and even some Republicans) stepped up to defend and support her."
The Fisher camp still believes the LG will roll ahead to victory and that the vast number of undecided voters will break his way because theirs is the campaign that has the money to communicate in the final few weeks of the race as voters begin to tune in.
Fisher's ad buy that launches tomorrow will cover 75% of the electorate -- in Cleveland, Columbus, Dayton and Youngstown.
Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid has hosted fundraisers for Fisher, but Pres. Obama and Sen. Sherrod Brown (D-OH) have stayed out, leaving room for Brunner to praise the 2 and appeal to the base.
Dems point to the most recent Quinnipiac poll, which shows either Dem leading ex-Rep. Rob Portman (R). But the poll may be an outlier in a sea of surveys that show Portman ahead.
Fisher's first quarter fundraising numbers fell from his fourth numbers last year, registering doubts about Menendez's claim that Fisher is the candidate who can pull in money. Brunner has lagged far behind him, however.
In the coming days, we'll take a look at several other primaries that are suddenly more competitive than we once thought.
I keep wondering, from my home in Louisville, KY, what it is about OH politics that I sat here and called voters to support Sherrod Brown. I did not have any idea how he would be as a Senator; I don't even live in OH. He is my hero in no uncertain terms. I am proud that I spent time calling youall to vote for him.
RETHINKING? Yeah, maybe all of us should do that.
Thank you
Good post, thanks
Wow nice to read this. I'm really shocked.
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