Wednesday's Starting Lineup

Good Wednesday morning. Pres. Obama will meet today with top Dem and GOP leaders over financial reform a day after Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell blasted the plan set to hit the Senate floor shortly. Oh, to be a fly on that wall.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics right now:

THE DCCC: Rep.-elect Ted Deutch (D-FL) is the latest Dem to win a special election, cruising to victory in the race to replace ex-Rep. Robert Wexler (D) last night. It is the ninth straight time Dems have won a special election, dating back to May 13, '08, when Rep. Travis Childers (D) replaced Sen. Roger Wicker (R) (10 days earlier, Dem Don Cazayoux won a GOP-held seat the same day Rep. Steve Scalise held a GOP open seat).

One thing is clear: The DCCC knows how to win a special election. But now, their job gets harder, with special election battles looming in Dem-held HI-01 and PA-12 next month. A loss in either seat, where GOPers have strong candidates and good chances, would cement the narrative that GOPers won the health care battle and are riding the wave to a good Nov.

In PA, businessman Tim Burns (R) has released a poll showing him leading ex-House aide Mark Critz (D) by 4 points. But it's a month old, and things don't look good for Burns. We're told he's pulled his ads, a sign he may be running low on campaign cash before the May 18 special. The NRCC is up with ads, but the Dem nature of the seat will be on full view on election day, as contested party primaries drive Dem turnout.

EX-REP. ED CASE: The GOP actually has a better chance in the more Dem-heavy HI district, which takes in much of Honolulu. GOPers have rallied around city councilman Charles Djou (R), a savvy campaigner with a history of winning Dem-heavy seats. DC Dems prefer Case, who won several terms representing the state's other district, while HI Dems favor state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa (D). The candidate who wins a plurality in the all-mail May 22 special election wins the seat.

Both Dems and GOPers privately acknowledge that Case is the front-runner. The AFL-CIO, which backs Hanabusa, has sent out mailers bashing his labor record during his first stint in Congress, and GOPers are quietly beginning to spread opposition research on him. The latest: Case has hired well-respected Dem pollster Fred Yang, who was tagged as an advisor in the criminal complaint against ex-IL Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D). Yang was "Advisor B," who suggested Blagojevich leverage Pres. Obama's open Senate seat in order to win a top position at Change to Win, the labor federation headed by SEIU (read more about Yang's involvement here).

Yang's involvement is more likely to help Case than hurt. After all, Case is known for running low-budget, home-based campaigns. The very fact that he's hired Yang and other top consultants is an indication that DC Dems are pushing him to run a stronger, more aggressive and more professional campaign. But with labor groups jamming Case from the left and GOPers hitting him from the right, he has a narrow needle to thread, making HI the best shot GOPers have at snapping the Dem win streak.

FL GOP CHAIR JOHN THRASHER: Thrasher, elected to replace disgraced ex-chair Jim Greer in Feb., has been leading the probe into the state party's dark and distressing financial past. Now, Thrasher will hold an April 23 executive board meeting to reveal the findings of an independent audit. But the meeting could be an ominous sign for FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R), who is reportedly being advised to drop his bid for the GOP SEN nomination and instead run as an independent.

Crist has until Friday to decide whether to sign a piece of legislation aimed at dramatically overhauling the way schools are run in the Sunshine State. The bill would effectively end teacher tenure and instead promote merit pay; it's seen as one of the most forward-looking GOP ideas in revamping education, and it's vehemently opposed by educators and teachers' unions.

Crist's camp is pushing back hard against any notion he may run as an independent, citing his conservative credentials as often as possible. But he's seriously considering vetoing the bill. If he does so, the GOP's executive committee would be poised to take a slap, whether through a formal measure or just by dishing to the media, at their meeting next week. Why the state party cares so much: Thrasher, a state senator, is the bill's chief sponsor. A Crist veto would effectively distance him from the new state party apparatus.