Wednesday's Starting Lineup

Good Wednesday morning. Congratulations to reader Richard Skinner, the first to correctly answer 4 out of 5 trivia questions we asked yesterday. The only one he got wrong: There have been 45 children of senators who eventually became senators themselves. Check back this afternoon for more questions.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter today in politics:

THE FED-UP ELECTORATE: New polling data released today shows Americans growing more satisfied with Pres. Obama, but more fed up with the rest of DC. The latest Washington Post/ABC News poll shows Obama's approval rating at 54%, the highest point in 6 months, and voters have improving opinions of his handling of everything from health care to the economy. Voters also trust Dems to better handle their problems than GOPers, by a 14-point margin, and Dems hold a 49%-43% advantage on the generic Congressional ballot.

But voters are sick of DC, and with Dems in charge, that's going to impact the majority party more than the minority. Just 32% say they will vote to re-elect their member of Congress, while 57% will look around for someone else -- the lowest level of support for incumbents since 2 weeks before the '94 elections.

Dems have all the structural advantages this year -- more money, a bigger bully pulpit and a still-popular president who has agreed to contribute his time and energy to re-electing vulnerable members. What's more, even conservative commentators agree the economy is rounding a corner. But the wave of discontent within the fed-up electorate is established, and that alone could have enough of an impact to help GOPers claw back a boatload of seats.

SEN. RICHARD SHELBY: The ranking member on the Senate Banking Committee is the top GOPer negotiating the financial regulatory reform legislation both parties hope will eventually reach the floor. "We're going to get a bill. We hope it's a substantive, good bill," Shelby said this morning on MSNBC.

It's a matter of when, not if. It's also a matter of what the bill will look like -- Dems are still pushing for stronger controls on derivatives, while GOPers say the bill as written would put too much pressure on local banks. "A lot of wall street firms like the Dodd bill. It's main street" that doesn't, Shelby added.

Dems are doing their best to pressure GOPers into voting in favor of the measure as written, or at least to allow debate to proceed. Pres. Obama's Midwest tour continues today with stops in Macon and Palmyra, MO, and Quincy, IL, and Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid has scheduled a third test vote. Today, they may get their first defection -- Sen. George Voinovich (R-OH) yesterday indicated he would switch to a "yes" vote to begin debate if negotiations don't conclude soon.

FL GOV. CHARLIE CRIST: The will-he-or-won't-he game continues apace, with Crist giving himself another day or so to decide whether to continue his SEN bid as an independent. A poll conducted earlier this week suggested he has a path to victory, The Fix reports this morning, but he hasn't made anything official yet. In fact, even when Crist does make something official, he doesn't always stick to it -- the oil spill spreading in the Gulf of Mexico has Crist once again reversing his position on off-shore oil drilling, a big issue to independent voters in FL.

If Crist wants advice on his party switch, he's got plenty of recent precedent to examine. Sen. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) has only seen his power grow as an independent, maintaining his post as chair of the Homeland Security Committee and staking out a key bargaining position as a leading Senate centrist. Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), on the other hand, switched parties a year ago today, and he finds himself facing a tough primary challenge and a junior post on the Judiciary Committee, which he once chaired. Specter also knows a little something about how much a party switch costs, especially if the Club for Growth goes after past donors.

Crist would likely have a better path to victory as an independent, but it would also put the FL seat in serious jeopardy. Dems don't have a great record of winning at the statewide level in the Sunshine State, but if Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) only has to get 40% to pull off the upset, the lower bar makes him more than a viable contender.

REP. MARK KIRK: What a difference a GOP primary makes. Before his surprisingly easy win in Feb., Kirk was looking to shore up his right flank, actively pursuing the endorsement of ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R). Now that he's won, Kirk is back to doing what he's done well during his House career -- appealing to the middle. Kirk will not attend a May 12 fundraiser for the state GOP that features Palin, opting instead to cast votes in DC.

It's another example of Palin's talent -- she can rile up a base like few others, and she's proving a popular draw for state partys (By our count, she's done fundraisers for the AR state party and a local party in OR). But it's also evidence of her viability in '12, or lack thereof: A moderate running for a statewide office who doesn't want to be seen with Palin suggests she can't attract the kind of votes Kirk needs -- and Palin would need -- in a general election.