May 2010

Ex-Rep. Ed Case (D-HI) will abandon his bid for Congress a week after finishing third in a special election that divided Dems and helped the GOP pick up their first special election win in 2 years.

Case made his announcement in an email to supporters today, saying the race has become the "wrong fight" for him. His decision leaves state Senate Pres. Colleen Hanabusa (D) as the only major Dem in the race.

"This past week since Election Day has been a roller coaster. We've taken apart the results and analyzed our options every which way," Case wrote in an email to supporters. "I've listened to the heartfelt advice of my family, our incredible campaign 'ohana and so many others who share our dreams, and asked myself how I can best contribute. If it all lined up it'd be an easy decision, but it doesn't."

Case, who represented HI's other district between '02 and '07, ran to the middle in the just-concluded special election. He had quiet support from national Dems, who maintained Hanabusa did not have a path to victory. Hanabusa, who had support from Sens. Daniel Akaka (D), Daniel Inouye (D) and labor groups, ran to the left.

The Dems split the vote, and Honolulu City Councillor Charles Djou (R), the only major GOPer in the race, won with 40%. Hanabusa finished second with 31% and Case, who drew the most fire from GOP-affiliated groups, finished with 28%.

Djou was sworn in last week. Given the Honolulu-based district's heavily Dem-leaning demographics, Djou has quickly become one of Dems' few targets this fall.

This may not be the last time Case, who abandoned his old seat in order to run against Akaka in '06, seeks public office. Akaka will be up again in '12, when he will be 88 years old.

In his letter to supporters, Case seemed to hint at a return to public life. "[S]ervice has been and always will be central to my very being. So the question is not whether but when, where and how I can best continue to serve, and I know that path will emerge in its own time," he wrote.

CongressDaily's Erin McPike writes in this week's National Journal:

This election year isn't looking too promising for female candidates.

Early on, Massachusetts Attorney General Martha Coakley rocked the political world by losing the special election to fill the Senate seat of the late Edward Kennedy. Until shortly before Election Day, the seat was widely assumed to be safely Democratic, even though the commonwealth has never elected a woman to the Senate. Among the earliest signs of serious trouble for Coakley were the sexist remarks popping up. Teamsters were vowing, "I'm not voting for that broad," according to a labor leader. At a GOP rally, one man reportedly shouted, "Shove a curling iron up her butt!"

Fast-forward to April, when a local chapter of the Ohio Republican Party sent out a mailer urging, "Let's take Betty Sutton out of the House and put her back in the kitchen." The two-term House Democrat is being challenged by auto dealer Tom Ganley.

To Mary Anne Marsh, a Massachusetts-based Democratic strategist for the Dewey Square Group, the Coakley and Sutton slams are part of a disturbing pattern. "When you go back and look at the 2008 presidential election and look at how [disrespectfully] Hillary [Rodham] Clinton and Sarah Palin were treated -- if it can happen to them, it can happen to anyone," Marsh said. Clinton and Palin "have precious little in common, but [the abuse heaped on them] gives permission for everyone else to be treated like that as a woman in politics," she said. "People don't want to realize it, but it's just more acceptable to be critical of women."

...

The freshman class of the 112th Congress is likely to be bigger than usual and, especially if Republicans pick up a lot of House seats, conspicuously male. Both parties have struggled to recruit viable female candidates this cycle.

Although Republicans boast that they have more women running for House seats than ever before -- 97, according to a Republican National Committee count -- few have become prominent contenders. Of the 115 candidates identified by the National Republican Congressional Committee as its "Young Guns," just nine are women. Only two women are in the top tier of that program.

Already, one highly touted GOP recruit has faltered: Former U.S. Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan was crushed in the primary in Pennsylvania's 4th Congressional District, losing to Keith Rothfus 67 percent to 33 percent. One NRCC official remarked, "She certainly underperformed our expectations."

Still, NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions of Texas insisted recently, "We've really got good women candidates, and strong ones, who I not only talk with but encourage." He added, "I'm real proud of them."

...

Your Hotline OnCall editor writes in this week's National Journal:

Republicans finally succeeded in winning a special election for a vacant House seat this month, breaking the Democrats' 10-contest winning streak. But the GOP's victory in the Honolulu-based 1st District was notable for what it lacked: a significant emphasis on House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, D-Calif.

Since Pelosi ascended to the top rung of the Democratic House leadership, she has proven to be an inviting target for Republican attacks. The good fortune of having an enemy from hated San Francisco -- a city known as much for its gay-friendly neighborhoods and liberal values as for its cable cars and the Golden Gate Bridge -- has given the GOP an easy way to portray Pelosi and her party as out of touch.

It helps, too, that Pelosi is widely unpopular. A recent survey for the Associated Press, conducted by GfK Roper Public Affairs & Media, showed that just 35 percent of registered voters view her favorably, while 54 percent see her in an unfavorable light. Those numbers have hardly budged during her three-plus years as speaker.

But for the GOP, as tempting as it may be to try to depict candidates as Pelosi's rubber stamp, the electoral tactic has been ineffective. Over the course of the 111th Congress, Republicans have used Pelosi's image in advertisements against Scott Murphy and Bill Owens, candidates for vacant House seats in upstate New York, and against Mark Critz, who sought to succeed the late Rep. John Murtha, D-Pa., in the 12th District.

In all three cases, internal GOP polls showed that Pelosi was unpopular, and Republicans responded by launching attack ads against her. Yet each time, the Democratic candidate won the special election.

...

Republicans spun Critz's victory over Republican businessman Tim Burns as a direct result of Pennsylvania's competitive Senate primary, in which Rep. Joe Sestak defeated incumbent Arlen Specter, the Republican-turned-Democrat. The district's registration is heavily Democratic, Republicans point out. But privately, GOP insiders acknowledged that they should have won the race; the culturally conservative district has a high unemployment rate, is overwhelmingly white, and was the only one in the country to vote for Democratic presidential nominee John Kerry in 2004 and Republican nominee John McCain in 2008.

"Clearly, that's a winnable seat for Republicans, and they didn't win," said Chris Chocola, the former House member from Indiana who heads the conservative Club for Growth. Added Rep. Tom Cole, R-Okla.: "We fell for our own spin a little bit."

Still, Republicans say that Pelosi can be an effective albatross to hang around Democrats' necks in the midterms that, by all accounts, are likely to be nationalized elections.

"Highlighting Nancy Pelosi is not a strategy -- it's a tactic," said Ron Nehring, the chairman of the California Republican Party. "It's based on sound information, which is that, particularly now, Pelosi's nails-on-the-chalkboard approach to governing begs Republicans to make her a part of their campaign plans."

...

Republicans have already foreshadowed parts of their strategy for the midterms, when they will portray Democrats as Pelosi's pawns. And although Democrats begin the fall campaign in a precarious position, they can learn how to avoid falling to national forces. All the incumbents have to do is ask Murphy, Owens, and Critz how they succeeded.

Find the full article here.

While we always learn that too much potato salad is a bad idea AFTER Memorial Day, here's what we at The Hotline learned the week before the holiday:

-- If you are having an affair DO NOT text about it. One guy's going to jail over it (ex-Detroit Mayor Kwame Kilpatrick) and one gal could lose her shot at SC GOV (state Rep. Nikki Haley).

-- We learned that the Sestak/WH hullabaloo may have ended more quickly, and with less fuss, if the WH didn't allow it to smolder for much of the week. Sure, the Friday before a holiday is a great time to dump the news that ex-Pres. Clinton was involved, but the story would've had less punch had it been squelched earlier this week.

-- IN Gov. Mitch Daniels' (R) decision to hold the special election to replace ex-Rep. Mark Souder (R) on 11/2 may take the wind out of the sails of NY-29 GOPers, who've gone to court to press Gov. David Paterson (D) to move up the date of that special, which is also scheduled for 11/2.

GOPers in NY, and Dems in IN, say they want a special election called sooner because it's wrong to have each CD go without representation for so long. But both also want a vote before Election Day because it'll help their cause in winning those seats. Daniels decision, though, may mean NY-29 GOPers lose a bit of the high ground as they battle their case in court.

-- Has Steve Poizner (R) crested in the CA GOV GOP primary? After seeing her lead dwindle from around 50% to single digits in a matter of weeks, ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) posted much larger margins in four surveys this week. Of those four, however, three were IVR (automated) polls -- and the fourth was an internal poll conducted for her campaign.

Meanwhile, the three IVR polls showed ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R)breaking away from ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R) in the SEN primary, though a PPIC live-caller poll just a week prior showed an air-tight race. The LA Times is set to publish the results of a highly-anticipated USC poll this weekend that will shed some light on these topsy-turvy GOP races.

-- While AZ Sen. John McCain (R) looks like he is still sporting a double digit lead over ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R), there are no signs he's taking Hayworth's candidacy lightly, despite Hayworth's repeated campaign trail flubs. Indeed, McCain released new radio and TV spots this week that goes directly after Hayworth on earmarks.

Each month, DC media outlets bring you the latest fundraising numbers from each party committee. But only on Hotline OnCall can you find the context that makes those numbers matter.

From now on, we'll provide a monthly look at how the committees have done over the previous reporting period, as well as a look at how each has done since Jan. 1, '06. Today, our updated chart, current through April 30 (That is, reflecting reports filed with the FEC on May 20).

An important note: We've named each month after the date on the report, which shows the committee's financial shape at midnight on the first of the month. That is, the RNC's March report, which shows the party with $9.46M in the bank, means they had that amount on hand as of Feb. 28, '10.

Pre-general reports cover Oct. 1 to Oct. 15 in election years. Post-general reports cover the period from Oct. 16 to Nov. 24. Year-end reports in election years cover Nov. 25 to Dec. 31; in non-federal election years, they cover Dec. 1 to Dec. 31. So a year-end report shows a committee's financial state on Jan. 1 of the following year.

REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE

Month       Raised       Spent    Cash On Hand   Debt
2010
May       $6,864,684  $5,738,571  $12,492,876        $0
April    $11,638,193  $9,734,193  $11,366,763        $0
March     $7,688,126  $7,708,240  $9,462,763         $0
Feb.     $10,530,290  $9,469,361  $9,482,877         $0
Year-end  $6,844,860  $7,172,004  $8,421,947         $0

2009
Dec.      $6,381,863   $8,924,939  $8,749,091        $0
Nov.      $9,068,585  $16,700,826 $11,292,167        $0
Oct.      $9,053,101  $11,099,549 $18,924,408        $0
Sept.     $7,868,792   $8,745,713 $20,970,857        $0
Aug.      $6,261,900   $8,108,401 $21,847,778        $0
July      $8,782,428   $6,634,207 $23,694,279        $0
June      $5,805,318   $8,642,646 $21,546,057        $0
May       $5,747,784   $5,304,393 $24,383,385        $0
April     $6,856,110   $6,917,924 $23,939,994        $0
March     $5,336,639   $4,167,759 $24,001,809        $0
Feb.     $13,166,809   $5,492,667 $22,832,929        $0
Year-end $10,226,572   $8,532,327 $15,158,787        $0

After the jump, data from 2008 and 2007.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts WH climate adviser Carol Browner, Rep. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) and ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R). The roundtable features Washington Post's E.J. Dionne and New York Times' David Brooks.

Face the Nation hosts Browner, Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA) and LSU prof. Edward Overton.

This Week hosts ex-Sec/State Colin Powell. The roundtable features Washington Post's George Will, ex-Bush strategist Matthew Dowd, Chicago Tribune's Clarence Page and Salon.com's Joan Walsh.

Fox News Sunday hosts TBA.

State of the Union hosts Adm. Mike Mullen, Sen. Jim Webb (D-VA) and Sen. David Vitter (R-LA).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

Each month, DC media outlets bring you the latest fundraising numbers from each party committee. But only on Hotline OnCall can you find the context that makes those numbers matter.

From now on, we'll provide a monthly look at how the committees have done over the previous reporting period, as well as a look at how each has done since Jan. 1, '06. Today, our updated chart, current through April 30 (That is, reflecting reports filed with the FEC on May 20).

An important note: We've named each month after the date on the report, which shows the committee's financial shape at midnight on the first of the month. That is, the DNC's March report, which shows the party with $10.7M in the bank, means they had that amount on hand as of Feb. 28, '10.

Pre-general reports cover Oct. 1 to Oct. 15 in election years. Post-general reports cover the period from Oct. 16 to Nov. 24. Year-end reports in election years cover Nov. 25 to Dec. 31; in non-federal election years, they cover Dec. 1 to Dec. 31. So a year-end report shows a committee's financial state on Jan. 1 of the following year.

DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE

Month       Raised      Spent     Cash On Hand    Debt
2010
May      $10,432,484   $10,052,5  $15,128,360   $2,728,492 
April    $13,728,260  $9,718,677  $14,748,459   $3,409,413
March     $7,422,412  $6,887,933  $10,738,876   $3,715,977
Feb.      $9,189,881  $7,629,472  $10,204,456   $4,721,634
Year-end  $4,536,164  $9,058,003   $8,644,048   $4,699,609

2009
Dec.      $5,903,916  $5,604,672  $13,165,887   $4,933,453
Nov.     $11,559,744 $13,434,214  $12,866,644   $4,363,778
Oct.      $8,204,207  $8,422,899  $14,741,113   $5,026,037
Sept.     $6,906,157  $7,886,097  $14,959,805   $5,330,866
Aug.      $9,249,597  $6,027,707  $15,939,745   $5,129,061
July      $6,783,347  $6,208,614  $12,717,855   $4,913,662
June      $8,370,444  $5,314,355  $12,143,122   $5,599,472
May       $4,517,928  $5,198,958   $9,087,033   $5,421,656
April     $7,806,063  $6,633,683   $9,768,063   $6,650,934
March     $6,689,133  $3,364,075   $8,595,683   $6,964,239
Feb.      $3,245,512  $3,544,867   $5,270,624   $5,000,000
Year-end  $5,601,761  $8,771,889   $5,569,979   $5,000,000

After the jump, 2008 and 2007.

Each month, DC media outlets bring you the latest fundraising numbers from each party committee. But only on Hotline OnCall can you find the context that makes those numbers matter.

From now on, we'll provide a monthly look at how the committees have done over the previous reporting period, as well as a look at how each has done since Jan. 1, '06. Today, our updated chart, current through April 30 (That is, reflecting reports filed with the FEC on May 20).

An important note: We've named each month after the date on the report, which shows the committee's financial shape at midnight on the first of the month. That is, the DSCC's March report, which shows the party with $14.28M in the bank, means they had that amount on hand as of Feb. 28, '10.

Pre-general reports cover Oct. 1 to Oct. 15 in election years. Post-general reports cover the period from Oct. 16 to Nov. 24. Year-end reports in election years cover Nov. 25 to Dec. 31; in non-federal election years, they cover Dec. 1 to Dec. 31. So a year-end report shows a committee's financial state on Jan. 1 of the following year.

DEMOCRATIC SENATORIAL CONGRESSIONAL COMMITTEE

Month     Raised       Spent       Cash On Hand     Debt
2010
May       $3,100,610   $3,255,508   $17,124,996          $0
April     $6,011,085   $3,017,337   $17,279,894          $0
March     $4,041,186   $2,705,293   $14,286,146    $416,583
Feb.      $5,104,289   $4,791,192   $12,950,253    $833,166
Year End  $3,413,620   $2,630,285   $12,637,157  $1,249,750

2009
Dec.      $3,046,237   $2,513,106   $11,853,821  $1,666,333
Nov.      $3,723,393   $2,712,851   $11,320,690  $2,082,916
Oct.      $5,920,930   $2,504,799   $10,310,148  $2,499,500
Sept.     $2,202,397   $2,462,945   $6,894,017   $2,916,083
Aug.      $2,042,206   $2,860,936   $7,154,565   $3,332,666
July      $6,250,464   $2,282,949   $7,973,295   $3,749,250
June      $3,447,249   $2,074,180   $4,005,780   $4,165,833
May       $3,125,084   $7,702,870   $2,632,711   $4,582,416
April     $5,015,801   $1,462,087   $7,210,497   $10,860,000
March     $2,868,078   $1,100,973   $3,656,783   $10,860,000
Feb.      $2,516,700   $923,617     $1,889,678   $10,860,000
Year End  $6,972,550   $6,904,874   $296,595     $10,973,545

After the jump, data from 2008 and 2007.

Each month, DC media outlets bring you the latest fundraising numbers from each party committee. But only on Hotline OnCall can you find the context that makes those numbers matter.

From now on, we'll provide a monthly look at how the committees have done over the previous reporting period, as well as a look at how each has done since Jan. 1, '06. Today, our updated chart, current through April 30 (That is, reflecting reports filed with the FEC on May 20).

An important note: We've named each month after the date on the report, which shows the committee's financial shape at midnight on the first of the month. That is, the NRSC's March report, which shows the party with $12.8M in the bank, means they had that amount on hand as of Feb. 28, '10.

Pre-general reports cover Oct. 1 to Oct. 15 in election years. Post-general reports cover the period from Oct. 16 to Nov. 24. Year-end reports in election years cover Nov. 25 to Dec. 31; in non-federal election years, they cover Dec. 1 to Dec. 31. So a year-end report shows a committee's financial state on Jan. 1 of the following year.

NATIONAL REPUBLICAN SENATORIAL COMMITTEE

Month       Raised       Spent     Cash On Hand  Debt
2010
May       $4,413,137   $2,328,611  $17,099,172   $0
April     $5,144,864   $2,996,264  $15,014,546   $0
March     $4,642,802   $2,408,165  $12,865,947   $0
Feb.      $5,013,023   $2,689,835  $10,631,310   $0
Year End  $4,121,069   $3,147,960  $8,308,123    $0

2009
Dec. 	  $3,304,494   $1,841,751  $7,335,015    $0
Nov. 	  $4,071,816   $3,381,879  $5,872,271    $0
Oct. 	  $3,205,680   $3,128,879  $5,182,334    $0
Sept.     $3,081,387   $2,411,256  $5,105,534    $0
Aug.	  $2,758,401   $2,629,712  $4,435,403    $0
July 	  $3,473,156   $2,883,967  $4,306,714    $0
June 	  $4,523,651   $3,457,045  $3,717,525    $0
May       $3,089,234   $2,710,583  $2,650,919    $0
April	  $4,943,423   $3,724,893  $2,272,268    $1,000,000
March 	  $2,873,528   $2,844,822  $1,053,738    $2,750,000
Feb.      $1,791,622   $1,515,169  $1,025,031    $4,089,283
Year End  $1,057,554   $3,142,287  $748,578      $4,894,434

After the jump, data from 2008 and 2007.

Memorial Day may be the holiday for hot dogs and hamburgers, but Tuesday's House primaries in AL and MS will certainly be no picnic for some GOPers.

Rep. Parker Griffith's (R) primary battle in his new party tops the list of competitive races on 6/1, but two other contests will decide whether some Blue Dog Dems will have real challenges in the fall. Below is a preview of next week's three top House contests.

AL-05:

If Rep. Parker Griffith (R) thought he would be welcomed with open GOP arms after he switched parties in late '09, he's certainly discovered differently in the last few months. He's had to fight efforts to get his name taken off the GOP ballot, and also seen GOP establishment types flock to his opponents, especially Madison Co. Commis. Mo Brooks (R).

But Griffith is not without resources. He has put over $250K of his own money into his well-stocked bid, and has been airing TV ads touting his conservative credentials for months. He also has the NRA's endorsement along with the GOP Cong. delegation behind him. But Brooks has attacked Griffith for his past Dem leanings, and looks to be Griffith's biggest challenger. If no GOPer reaches 50%, the top two candidates will move to a 7/13 runoff.

Businessman Les Phillips (R) has raised a boatload of cash, but has spent most of his warchest on direct mail fundraising. The African-American aimed to jolt viewers late in the race by releasing a TV ad comparing he and Obama, saying: "While one played with terrorists and allowed his America-hating pastor to baptize his children, the other joined the Navy to defend this country." CORRECTION: The writeup previously noted the ad was web-only. In fact, the ad has been on the air for over a week. We apologize for the error.

Dems, meanwhile, will decide between pol. consultant/late-Sen. Heflin CoS Steve Raby (D), Sen. Sparkman grandson/atty Taze Shepard (D) and atty Mitchell Howie (D). Under the right circumstances, Dems believe this seat could be put in play, but GOPers certainly have the edge here.

Race and ethnic identity are still playing outsized roles in both the Dem and GOP primaries for AL-GOV, which could head toward runoff elections when they're held June 1.

For Dems, it's a 2-man race between frontrunner Rep. Artur Davis (D-07) and Ag. Commis. Ron Sparks (D). Davis enters the race as the only Dem House member seeking running for state office. He represents a minority-majority district that includes Birmingham, Tuscaloosa and Selma.

Davis has taken criticism for being the only member of the Congressional Black Caucus to vote against the health care reform law, especially given that Pres. Obama won his district with over 70% of the vote in '08. Davis cited the cost of the both the House and Senate bills as his reason for voting against it, though Sparks has accused him of making a politically-calculated vote instead of representing his constituents given that white AL voters are largely against the law.

Likewise, the AL New South Coalition accused Davis of running away from his race. Davis, in turn, has not sought the civil rights group's endorsement. Davis claimed that voters do not need a guide telling them how to vote; the Coalition claimed he was trying to avoid being viewed too closely with black groups. Sparks, however, did court their endorsement and won it overwhelmingly.

Davis still maintains a significant lead in polling among black voters, though Sparks has taken a considerable chunk out of Davis's base. One of the chief issues the 2 clash heavily on is how to raise revenue for the state. Davis supports taxing out-of-state and foreign timber companies that do business in AL while Sparks is a heavy proponent of legalized gambling.

In fact, Sparks signed a no-new-taxes pledge and has relied on legalized gambling as his main new revenue source repeatedly. Davis, who supports legalizing gambling to an extent, said that doing so would not generate enough money to solve AL's money problems.

NM GOPers will head to the polls on Tuesday to pick a GOV nominee, seeking to return one of their own to office after Gov. Bill Richardson (D) dominated state politics for 8 years.

The tight race between Dona Ana Co. DA Susana Martinez (R) and businessman/ex-NM GOP chair Allen Weh (R) is coming down to the wire.

Some observers perceive Martinez, endorsed by ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R), as having momentum heading into the final weekend, although Weh is certainly within striking distance. Atty Pete Domenici Jr. (R), who had significant support in early polls because of his inherited name recognition, has lately faded, even though he mentions his "trusted name" in href="http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EnmuXej8R6w&feature=player_embedded">every ad.

The other candidates are state Rep. Janice Arnold-Jones (R) and PR firm owner/ex-Gov. Johnson mgr. Doug Johnson (R), who have both been advertising on TV but should not make much of an impact at the polls.

The Albuquerque Journal, the Santa Fe New Mexican and the Las Cruces Sun-News have all endorsed Martinez.

Martinez engaged Weh first on TV, accusing him of favoring "amnesty" for illegal immigrants. Weh, who has self-funded most of his campaign, responded, attacking Martinez as a career politician and accusing her of failing to pay taxes.

But Weh's ads have had unintended consequences. The current NM GOP chair took the unusual step of denouncing Weh's negative advertising blitz, which prompted accusations of party bias in favor of Martinez. The other candidates have stayed out of the flap.

There is little drama on the Dem side, where LG Diane Denish (D) is running unopposed. And GOPers are excited for their prospects in NM 01, where ex-Albuquerque Hispanic Chamber of Commerce pres. Jon Barela (R) will take on Rep. Martin Heinrich (D); and in NM 02, where ex-Rep. Steve Pearce (R) is running for his old seat against Rep. Harry Teague (D). Neither Barela nor Pearce face oppositon in Tuesday's primary.

"World News" led with Obama on the oil spill. "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with the Gulf oil spill being the biggest one ever in the U.S.

The Gulf oil spill was the talk of TV last night.

Sen. Bernie Sanders (I-VT), on Pres. Obama saying "we are in charge" on day 38: "I think that's about 38 days too late. I think the point here, this is not a BP tragedy, this is an American tragedy. And I think what we should have done from day one is tell BP and every engineer and oil company in the world, we need your help to put a stop to this horrendous spill" ("Ed Show," MSNBC, 5/27).

Dem strategist Paul Begala, on Obama's Gulf visit: "I think he's got to be really careful about the bubble. This is a president who is very worried about being trapped in the bubble, that's why he kept his own blackberry. But he needs to break out and not just go where BP or even the Coast Guard suggest that he goes. They have these things ... called OTRs which is off the record, an unscheduled stop. Boy, I would do that tomorrow. I'd fire up that chopper and go to a place that nobody has any idea he's going to so he can surprise them and see what's really going on whether or not ready for him" ("Situation Room," CNN, 5/27).

Dem strategist James Carville: "I didn't think it was a good press conference, I will be honest with you. And I don't think anybody else did either" ("AC 360," CNN, 5/27).

After the jump, more on the oil spill.

Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid's re-election prospects have improved considerably as the GOP primary has evolved into a legitimate three-way race, according to a new poll released today by the Las Vegas Review-Journal.

The poll, conducted May 24-26 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research, surveyed 625 regular voters, with a margin of error of +/- 3.9%. There was an oversample of 500 likely GOP primary voters, with a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. Reid was tested in general election matchups against ex-state GOP Chair Sue Lowden (R), ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) and '06 Sec/State nominee/ex-UNLV basketball player Danny Tarkanian (R); Wall St. banker John Chachas (R) and Assemb. Chad Christensen (R) were also tested in the GOP primary.

Primary Election Matchup
Lowden       30% (-- from 5/11)
Angle        29  (+4)
Tarkanian    23  (+1)
Christensen   3  (+1)
Chachas       2  (-1)
Other         2

In the past two weeks, Angle has continued to close in on Lowden. Angle leads among men and areas outside Clark Co., the state's population center. Inside Clark Co., Angle finishes third behind Lowden and Tarkanian.

Just 8% of primary voters are undecided.

Notably, Reid is now within the margin of error in general election matchups with the three top GOP contenders. He trails Lowden (42-39%) and Tarkanian (42-41%), but he leads Angle, 42-39%. In mid-April, he trailed Lowden, 47-37%, and he trailed Tarkanian by 11 points the last time the two were matched up head-to-head, in late Feb.

Mason-Dixon did not test any of the third-party candidates in general-election matchups, though they did offer choices for "other" and "none of these."

The tightening in the race comes as Lowden -- the one-time odds-on favorite for the GOP nod -- has faced attacks from the left and the right, as liberals have seized on comments she made about bartering for health care, and grass-roots conservatives in the state have mostly lined up behind Angle. Lowden is now viewed favorably by 41% of all regular NV voters, down from 45% in mid-April.

Reid's numbers have also improved slightly. He is now viewed favorably by 37% of NV regular voters, while 49% view him unfavorably. In mid-April, he was viewed favorably by 33% of voters, with 54% having an unfavorable impression of him.

The House GOP's deputy whip, Kevin McCarthy, who recruits for the NRCC, knows that for all of the electoral expectations trading over the last year, it's still going to be tough for the GOP to grab control of the lower chamber in Nov.

"Would we be back in this competitive position if it wasn't for the mismanagement of the Democrats? No," McCarthy said at a breakfast this a.m. hosted by the Christian Science Monitor.

"If you're the majority party, and you can't govern, it matters," he said.

McCarthy said that top GOPers have told him they hope to win in the neighborhood of 37 seats rather than 40 so they're in a stronger position to have good back-to-back cycles and win the WH in '12.

But McCarthy, noting that the Dems won control of the House and the Senate in '06 and then won the WH and ran up their numbers in '08 said he believes it's better to have the House, because it controls the purse strings.

"The majority is in play," he said, but noted that it's going to be very close, and that he's never said the number of seats GOPers will win will number in the triple digits. Explaining remarks that have been misconstrued by some of his contemporaries - that there are 100 or 130 seats in play - McCarthy explained it's been his job to recruit solid candidates who can put many of those seats on the board, but that of course they're not going to win them all.

McCarthy sought to disabuse Dem leaders on their notion that the Dems have bottomed out and are on the rise. Several times he challenged DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen on his assertions and last week told Hotline OnCall he's spoiling for a debate against Van Hollen, whose actual counterpart in the GOP is NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions.

Nevertheless, McCarthy believes that despite the challenges GOPers have ahead of them and the fundraising disparity against the Dems, they are in the better position heading into November.

"I think people have moved from anger to resolve," he said, proposing that many American voters' minds are already made up, and they've already come to the conclusion that the current Democratic leadership can't govern, so it's time to replace them.

McCarthy suggested Speaker Nancy Pelosi's leadership has shifted from the last Congress to this one, and he compared her leadership style to former Speaker Gingrich's, as opposed to former Speaker Dennis Hastert, in that her big agenda items will force her tenure to be shorter.

And in that vein, he compared the Dems' current House leadership to that of the GOPers' in 2006: That the bulk of House leaders couldn't travel on behalf of their rank and file members. He offered not just Pelosi, but outgoing Appropriations Chair David Obey (D-WI) and the immediate past Ways and Means Chairman, Charlie Rangel (D-NY). (Although that claim is not altogether accurate: See CongressDaily's "Leaders Log Thousands Of Miles, Raise Millions On The Trail.)

Still, GOPers have cited nat'l polling to suggest that intensity and enthusiasm is on their side, even though the PA-12 results challenged that claim. Will GOPers have it in November? "That's a great question. A question that has to be answered," McCarthy said, adding that the challenge Republicans will have is getting a ground game to match the Dems'.

"Our challenge is taking the intensity and putting synergy to it," he said, noting that Dems are coming off of 2 strong cycles in which they were fighting to get power. "They will fight to keep it."

But he also noted that the incoming class of GOPers will be its biggest class since '94.

"This is a generational changing election," he said, acknowledging that while GOPers still have some work to do, the party's identity crisis is working itself out.

"New names are going to rise up," he said. "People are going to have to fight to be the leader."

The DNC, the political wing of a president who launched his campaign decrying slash-and-burn campaign tactics, is highlighting new stories about a sex scandal rocking a GOP primary.

Earlier today, the DNC sent around a report from WSPA, the Spartanburg, SC, CBS affiliate, in which SC blogger Will Folks says SC state Rep. Nikki Haley's (R) campaign asked him to deny an affair.

The report followed revelations of a series of text messages between Folks, who claims he had an affair with Haley several years ago, and Haley's campaign manager. Haley had been surging in the polls when news of the affair broke earlier this week. Folks has blamed one of Haley's rivals of leaking the rumors to reporters.

As the affair roils notoriously nasty SC GOP politics, Dems are helping out. A DNC spokesperson said the article wasn't supposed to be widely distributed, but it was sent to an external list rather than the in-house one. Even if it's a mistake, it's clear Dems are paying attention to the story despite promises from Pres. Obama, the de facto leader of the Dem Party, to support a new kind of politics.

"We don't see a thing wrong pointing out when a politician of the other party lies to voters which the story in question shows here," the spokesman said. "But, in this specific case, the story was supposed to go an internal rapid response list not an external one."

In his announcement speech in Feb. '07, Obama deplored "the smallness of our politics, the ease with which we're distracted by the petty and trivial." The country, Obama said at a Dec. '07 campaign appearance in Waterloo, IA, is "not interested in politics as a blood sport." And Obama has repeatedly called for a "new kind of politics."

Then again, Obama's rhetoric has taken on a notably more partisan edge of late. He held a testy lunch meeting with the Senate GOP Conference this week, asking for bipartisan help to pass key reform measures, then mocked the opposition party in remarks later that day. On Monday, DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen said he was happy Obama was using harsher language to define the midterm election as a choice between the 2 parties -- something a DCCC spokesperson quickly clarified Van Hollen has been doing for months.

Election-year optimism has grown among GOPers, who now believe they'll win enough seats to take the House majority in Nov., according to the new National Journal Congressional Insiders poll. On average, they predict that the GOP will gain 40 House seats, which would give them a slim majority. Responding to a similar question in Jan., the same group predicted a 33-seat House GOP gain.

Dems also concede growing losses on their side, though all of their party's Congressional Insiders responding to this week's poll predicted that Dems will retain the House majority. On average, these Dems predicted a 21-seat loss. That compares to their Jan. prediction that they would lose 15 seats.

Dems currently hold a 255-177 majority. The three vacancies include two solidly GOP districts in GA and IN, plus a Dem-held district in upstate NY that likely will be competitive in Nov.

These results follow last week's special election in PA, in which Mark Critz (D) had an unexpectedly big win over Tim Burns (R) and restored some confidence among Dems. Also last week, Charles Djou (R) won a special election for a House seat in HI, which Dems had held for 20 years; Dems responded that they were disadvantaged because of balloting procedures that split their party's vote among two candidates.

In the Congressional Insiders poll, 53 percent of GOPers predicted at least a 40-seat gain. Dems are fooling themselves if they think voters are going to forget the economy, dangerous deficits, and the health care takeover," responded one GOPer who predicted a 45-seat gain. Another GOPer predicting the same gain wrote, "A huge swath of the Dem lawmakers who came to Congress in '06 and '08 will be defeated in Nov. for supporting the speaker's liberal agenda on the stimulus, cap-and-trade, and health care."

Less-bullish GOPers forecast sizable gains but worried that anti-incumbency will hurt both parties. "Proving to be a wave election year, but no one is riding the wave," responded a GOPer predicting a 22-seat gain. A more caustic GOPer, who predicted the GOP will gain 28 seats, said, "Lack of resources, unlearned lessons from special-election losses, and overly excited but under-committed [GOP] members squander an opportunity to regain the majority."

Dem Congressional Insiders sough to downplay expectations of big GOP gains. Predicting a 15-seat Democratic loss, one Dem said, "I know Republicans think they're going to win more, but I doubt voters will buy what they're trying to sell." Another Dem forecast a loss of "27 seats if unemployment is 10 percent or higher; 22 if it drops below 9 percent."

In another question, GOP Congressional Insiders predicted that the GOP will gain seven seats in Nov., while Dems expected a four-seat gain. Both predictions were identical to the results of an Insiders poll in Feb. Dems now hold a 59-41 Senate majority.

Referring to recent Senate Dem primaries in PA and AR, a GOPer predicted a seven-seat loss and added, "If Democrats cannot defend incumbents in primaries, how will they win general elections?" Another GOPer forecasting a seven-seat switch cautioned, "It's too early to tell which of our candidates will make a strong challenge to some of the senators who now appear safe."

A cong. Dem sought to downplay the significance of a five seat loss. "Democrats may lose a fair share of seats, as expected of the party in power." Another Dem predicted a three-seat loss, but that Senate Majority Leader Harry Reid "will be among them."

To see more responses and the full Insider's Poll, click here.

National Republican Congressional Committee
Month       Raised       Spent     Cash On Hand  Debt
2010
May       $7,184,319   $5,662,873   $11,456,418  $0
April     $8,035,167   $4,164,445   $9,934,971   $0
March     $5,082,175   $3,150,851   $6,064,250   $0
Feb.      $4,501,858   $3,043,209   $4,132,926   $0
Year End  $3,214,158   $4,887,837   $2,674,277   $0

2009
Dec.      $2,338,779   $2,159,246   $4,347,955   $2,000,000
Nov.      $3,439,657   $3,588,229   $4,168,422   $2,000,000
Oct.      $3,414,948   $3,298,499   $4,316,993   $2,000,000
Sept.     $3,149,809   $2,960,269   $4,200,543   $2,000,000
Aug.      $3,084,225   $3,233,232   $4,011,003   $2,750,000
July      $3,143,331   $2,718,015   $4,160,011   $3,250,000
June      $3,244,641   $3,197,771   $3,734,696   $4,000,000
May       $2,228,533   $1,762,454   $3,687,825   $5,000,000
April     $5,273,647   $3,904,276   $3,221,746   $5,000,000
March     $2,026,454   $1,316,122   $1,852,375   $6,400,000
Feb.      $1,631,565   $1,347,369   $1,142,042   $6,500,000
Year End  $1,556,899   $1,780,931   $759,850     $6,500,000

After the jump, data from 2008 and 2007.

Each month, DC media outlets bring you the latest fundraising numbers from each party committee. But only on Hotline OnCall can you find the context that makes those numbers matter.

From now on, we'll provide a monthly look at how the committees have done over the previous reporting period, as well as a look at how each has done since Jan. 1, '06. Today, our updated chart, current through April 30 (That is, reflecting reports filed with the FEC on May 20).

An important note: We've named each month after the date on the report, which shows the committee's financial shape at midnight on the first of the month. That is, the DCCC's March report, which shows the party with $19.8M in the bank, means they had that amount on hand as of March 1, '10.

Pre-general reports cover Oct. 1 to Oct. 15 in election years. Post-general reports cover the period from Oct. 16 to Nov. 24. Year-end reports in election years cover Nov. 25 to Dec. 31; in non-federal election years, they cover Dec. 1 to Dec. 31. So a year-end report shows a committee's financial state on Jan. 1 of the following year.

Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee
Month       Raised         Spent     Cash On Hand    Debt
2010
May       $5,140,302    $3,906,970   $27,276,650   $0
April     $9,775,922    $3,550,258   $26,043,318   $0
March 	  $4,353,272	$2,857,374   $19,817,659   $666,666
Feb.	  $4,689,595	$3,049,268   $18,321,760   $1,333,333
Year End  $3,814,572	$2,485,106   $16,681,433   $1,999,999

2009
Dec. 	  $3,645,574	$2,811,094   $15,351,967   $2,666,666
Nov. 	  $3,757,109	$3,985,981   $14,517,488   $3,335,710
Oct. 	  $7,052,003	$3,043,706   $14,746,360   $3,999,999
Sept. 	  $3,304,284	$2,767,068   $10,738,063   $4,666,666
Aug. 	  $3,200,439	$2,731,428   $10,200,847   $5,333,333
July 	  $7,157,807	$2,432,162   $9,731,836    $5,999,999
June 	  $3,440,311	$2,460,681   $5,006,191	   $6,666,666
May       $3,053,448	$2,374,034   $4,026,560	   $7,333,333
April 	  $10,190,727	$9,757,089   $3,347,147	   $8,000,000
March 	  $3,490,036	$2,589,358   $2,913,508	   $15,087,167
Feb. 	  $3,521,784	$2,000,805   $2,012,830	   $16,300,094
Year End  $5,009,681	$7,231,311   $491,852	   $16,414,829

After the jump, data from 2007 and 2008.

Hotline executive editor John Mercurio writes:

A decade ago, Google took over the World Wide Web. Now, the Internet behemoth wants to conquer something even bigger -- Washington.

While President Obama already has CEO Eric Schmidt on speed dial, the California-based search giant is moving quickly to expand its influence in the capital in ways that are starting to bear fruit. Google increased the money it spends on lobbying in the first quarter by 57 percent over the previous year, paying $1.4 million to influence lawmakers and regulators, according to Consumer Watchdog, a nonpartisan, nonprofit public interest group that has been critical of Google's activities.

...

Google has dramatically expanded its D.C. staff and government affairs operations. In 2009, the computer and Internet industry employed the third-most lobbyists of any industry -- only the pharmaceutical and education industries had more, according to the Center for Responsive Politics. Industry lobbyists outnumber members of Congress more than 2-to-1.

...

Campaign finance experts said Google's activities represent the "next wave" of the computer industry's inevitable arrival as a Washington power player. "The computer industry, by virtue of its personality, has always wanted to keep Washington at arm's length," Sheila Krumholz, executive director of the Center for Responsive Politics, told me this week. "They've found they can't, so they have jumped in."

Google's increased investment appears to be paying dividends. Over the past few years, Google has prevailed on issues like net neutrality, hacking and Chinese Internet privacy. Just this month, after initially raising doubts about Google's $750 million purchase of AdMob, a mobile advertising start-up, the Federal Trade Commission approved the deal.

And on Tuesday, Sen. Mary Landrieu, D-La., chairwoman of the Senate small business committee, stood alongside Google execs as they released a report estimating that they helped generate $54 billion in economic activities for U.S. businesses last year.

"These businesses are growing, and Google is thrilled to play a role," said Claire Hughes Johnson, Google vice president of global online sales.

Read the whole column here.

"World News" led with the top kill procedure to hopefully plug the oil leak. "Evening News" led with top kill. "Nightly News" led with top kill.

Gov. Ed Rendell (D) went "On the Record" 5/26 p.m.

Rendell, on why he wants answers on the Sestak job issue: "This is something where the White House should be as transparent as they can be, and so should Joe Sestak. I think that's part of our obligation as public officials. [And] it's good politically because if they try to stonewall and don't say any more than what they've said, this is going to fester and you're going to get irresponsible calls for a special prosecutor here. This is not the type of thing that lends itself to a special prosecutor."

More Rendell: "But I think we should hear what actually was said. If the White House and Congressman Sestak don't do this, then ... the impression that people take is probably far worse than the actual reality and it becomes an issue that festers and festers and festers. Right now, I don't think it's a major issue with voters, and I think they should just say what was said."

Rendell, on comparisons with ex-IL Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D) allegedly trying to sell Obama's IL Senate seat: "I think it's important to actually get a description of what actually was said because sometimes, people hear what they want to hear. ... Let's just assume whoever it was in the White House who had this conversation said, Look, Joe, we think Arlen Specter's the strongest candidate. We talked to Arlen into switching as a Democrat. We have an obligation to him. We love you. We don't want to oppose you in an election. There's things to do here in this administration that fit your background and your ability, and come talk to us ... after this is over."

After the jump, more on Sestak's alleged job offer.

CT AG Richard Blumenthal (D) maintains a sizable lead over ex-World Wrestling Entertainment CEO Linda McMahon (R) in the race to succeed Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), despite recent revelations that he occasionally overstated his military record, a new poll shows.

The poll was conducted from May 24 and 25 by Quinnipiac Univ., surveying 1,159 registered voters, with a margin of error of +/- 2.9%.

General Election Matchup

Blumenthal  56% (-5 from 3/15)
McMahon     31  (+3)

Blumenthal's favorability has taken a minor hit since the New York Times reported last week that he had, on occasion, said publicly that he served in Vietnam as a member of the Marines. Blumenthal did serve in the Marines, but he was never deployed to Vietnam or any other conflict. Now, 61% view him favorably, down from 70% in mid-March.

But voters don't appear to be very troubled by the Blumenthal controversy. More than half say Blumenthal misspoke rather than lied, and 53% say they are satisfied with his explanation of the matter. Meanwhile, 57% of voters said the controversy was not important to their vote in Nov., and 61% said it doesn't make a difference.

Voters also remain confident in Blumenthal's job performance, with 76% saying they approve of the job he is doing as AG. The same number also thinks he has the right kind of experience to serve in the Senate.

Rep. John Spratt (D-SC) faces the toughest challenge of his career, according to a new survey conducted for his GOP challenger, as party strategists say they are increasingly confident in their ability to knock off the chairman of the House Budget Committee.

The Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll conducted for state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R), obtained by Hotline OnCall, surveyed 400 likely voters between May 17-18 for a margin of error of +/- 5.3%. Spratt and Mulvaney were tested against each other.

GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUP
Spratt         43% (-5 from last, 10/09)
Mulvaney       41  (+6)

The GOP's pressure on Spratt has helped push his personal ratings down. A total of 42% see him favorably, down 9 points from the fall, while his disapproval rating has risen 14 points, to 33%. Still, few know Mulvaney, whose fav/unfav rating stands at an anemic 13%/5%.

Spratt has been a reliable Dem vote this year, even though he represents a district Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) won in '08. Spratt voted for the stimulus measure, for cap and trade legislation and for the health care bill, giving Mulvaney ammunition for coming TV ads.

In the district, Pres. Obama's approval ratings aren't going to give Spratt a boost; just 45% approve of Obama's job performance, while 52% disapprove. Then again, that number is disproportionately high among African American voters, who make up 31% of the district. Obama's approval rating among persuadable voters -- largely white voters who gave McCain a 53%-46% win in the district -- is much worse.

GOPers say they expect Mulvaney to have a chance at beating the 14-term Spratt, provided Mulvaney can raise the money necessary to compete. At the end of the first quarter, Mulvaney had $206K in the bank, about a quarter of the $823K Spratt has on hand. Mulvaney has raised about $262K so far this year, meaning he'll need a few good quarters to catch up with Spratt's incumbent advantage.

What better motto for GOP contenders this year? After all, they want smaller government, and they're not afraid to use the same message to get that across.

In some cases, those messages are more closely related than others. Take, for example, farmer Stephen Fincher (R), the highly-touted NRCC recruit running to replace retiring Rep. John Tanner (D). His latest ad slams politics as usual: "Career politicians have failed us. Wasteful spending. High taxes. The American dream is in trouble," a narrator intones.

The same narrator says the same thing, over the same images, in a new ad for farmer Dorman Grace (R), a candidate for AL's open Agriculture Commissioner seat.

The similarities don't end there: "Stephen Fincher: Deep roots in Tennessee, not politics," a second narrator says. "My roots run deep in Alabama, not politics," Grace pronounces while standing next to his tractor.

The 2 candidates share media consultant Tommy Hopper, a former TN GOP chair with years of experience in DC. Hopper said the ads present a good message for both candidates, and that he doesn't see a problem using the same clips and nearly identical scripts.

"It saved both candidates a lot of money, and they're running nowhere near the same market," Hopper said.

Check out both ads after the jump.

Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) doesn't think his fellow MI GOV contenders have serious plans for getting the state's economy back on track, and he says his leading Dem rival is an "ineffectual" leader to begin with.

"He is Speaker of the Mess," Bernero said of House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) in an interview last week. "I don't know how he overcomes that. He holds one of the 3 most powerful positions in Michigan government, so whatever is right or wrong, he's had his fingers in it."

The MI gov't briefly shut down twice during Dillon's tenure as Speaker, thanks to budget disputes within the legislature. Bernero claimed Dillon has not turned his own ideas "into action," specifically citing his proposal for public employees to pool their insurance together that hasn't been given a vote yet.

"He hasn't been able to implement them," said Bernero of Dillon's ideas. "I will put up my 4 1/2 years as Mayor of Lansing up against his 4 years as Speaker of the House any day."

A former one-term state representative and state senator, Bernero said that during his tenure in the MI legislature, "we got things done when I was there. (Dillon's) had 2 government shutdowns. He can't execute. He may have some good ideas, we don't know."

Though he repeatedly took shots at Dillon, Bernero distanced himself from the woman he hopes to replace. "I'm not running against Jennifer Granholm. I'm not Jennifer Granholm. ... I don't look anything her, I don't sound anything like her. You know, I'm the mayor of Lansing."

[Update: Dillon had this to say about Bernero's critiques: "Anyone can call names and throw stones. ... The question isn't who can TALK tough, it's who can get tough things done."

More Dillon: "Our schools will be fully funded next year because we passed teacher retirement reform that will save $600 million. I didn't see or hear Virg when I was fighting that battle. ... I think Michigan voters want tough action out of Lansing, not just tough talk on cable news"].

Casting himself as a populist fighting for Main Street over Wall Street, Bernero indicated he's prepared to contrast himself with either of the two leading GOPers, Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) and AG Mike Cox (R).

He is the so-called "angry mayor," a reputation Bernero said reflects the mood of the electorate. "People are pissed. People have had it. They have had it. Working people can't make ends meet," he said. "The fact is we've been sold out."

Hotline editor and cycling fan Amy Walter writes:

In cycling, it's pretty obvious when you're being pushed along by the unseen hand of a tailwind. It's also clear, and painful, when you're laboring in a headwind; every pedal stroke is a battle. But the most difficult to figure is a crosswind. You never know when it's going to turn for or against you.

Last week's special elections in Pennsylvania and Hawaii suggest that House Democrats are going to be facing a crosswind election instead of a headwind election. To be sure, a crosswind can mask the rough headwind that may be just around the next bend. But Democrats may still be able to get enough breaks to be able to hold their majority.

Democrats lost in Hawaii-01 on Saturday but succeeded in winning the expectations game. All but declaring that they'd lose, they pulled out their money a couple of weeks ago and basically dared the Republicans to win it big. In the end, Republican Charles Djou took just under 40 percent, while the two Democratic candidates split the rest of the vote. In other words, Democrats lost but still took 60 percent of the vote, making it tough for the National Republican Congressional Committee to get much of a PR bump.

What also helped Democrats win the spin war, of course, was the fact that they pulled off an 8-point victory in a much tougher district, Pennsylvania-12. A Democratic win in a district where President Obama's job approval rating is under 40 percent is both impressive and instructive. The Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee out-executed the NRCC in almost every aspect of the race, including polling, advertising and candidate positioning. It suggests that despite a bad political climate for the Democrats, candidates and campaigns matter.

Of course, we heard a lot of the same spin in the summer of 2006. After Republicans won a hard-fought special election in California-50, there were lots of folks (me included) who suggested that this was a sign that smart campaigns could withstand a bad environment. It didn't exactly work out that way, as even some of the smartest and strongest GOP candidates found themselves unable to survive.

So will Democrats find themselves in a similar position this fall? There's lots of evidence that suggests the answer is yes.

...

[V]oter anger isn't confined to Washington. Americans are upset with almost every major institution out there. In 2006, a Democrat could run as an outsider even if he or she was a banker or member of a corporate board. Try doing that today. In Pa.-12, Democrats were able to turn "outsider" businessman Tim Burns into a corporate hack who was willing to outsource jobs to make more money for himself.

After their win in Pennsylvania, Democrats have reason to feel optimistic. But it's far too soon to tell if this is just a brief tailwind before the oncoming storm or if it's a real sign that Democrats may be able to slog their way through a 2010 crosswind and find a way to hold on to a majority -- albeit a really small one.

Read the whole column here.

Keith Allred, a Dem activist and former Harvard professor, will face ID Gov. Butch Otter (R) after easily taking the ID Dem nomination yesterday.

Allred sat down last week with Hotline OnCall, where he expressed confidence that '10 was an anti-incumbent year, not an anti-Dem one. Polls show that he's the best chance Dems have had in years to win the GOV seat, even in a bad environment for Dems across the country.

"Butch Otter's the weakest incumbent in ID since the 1960's and I'm the strongest Democratic candidate that we've seen in a couple of decades," Allred said. "The key is that you match those things up in the same year, and I think that what it takes for a Democrat to win in Idaho."

Allred, a fifth-generation IDan, is hoping to follow in the footsteps of Rep. Walt Minnick (D) and other western Dem governors like MT's Brian Schweitzer (D) and WY's Dave Freudenthal (D). All 3 won in traditionally GOP areas. Allred was recruited to run in '09 by ID Dems, but before last year he was a proud independent, and hopes his background will appeal to Idaho independents and GOPers.

His campaign is off to a good start, announcing that he raised more than $250K from Jan. 1 through mid-May. Otter, who took just 55% against weak GOP opponents in yesterday's primary, raised $193K during the same period.

No matter how well the GOP does in this year's midterm elections, there will be recriminations. And already, major players are jockeying for position in hopes of claiming the most credit, and avoiding the most blame.

How much credit and blame there is to go around will depend not only on how many seats the GOP picks up, but on how many political prognosticators expect them to pick up. And the messages out of leading GOPers are decidedly mixed.

House Min. Leader John Boehner has been cautious in predicting a majority. Boehner has said he believes the GOP will make gains, and that winning a majority is the goal. He told NPR in April that there are 100 seats in play, but that's very different from claiming the party would win all those seats. In fact, he has never said he believes the party will retake the House.

RNC chair Michael Steele is in the same boat. Though his political director told reporters earlier this month the GOP has its eyes on 122 Dem-held seats, Steele is reserved in his perdictions.

"We're working very hard to do that. But as you can see, you know, with some incumbents going down in primaries and newer players coming to the table, that model is still being built up for us," Steele said on ABC's "This Week" on Sunday, when asked whether the party could win the House. "But absolutely, we're in the hunt. Just as he's in the hunt to protect, we're in the hunt to take."

There are more bullish voices in House GOP leadership. House Min. Whip Eric Cantor last week lamented the party's loss in a special election in PA-12, but he said he remained optimistic about his party's chances.

"I think the message for us as Republicans in the House is that we cannot get ahead of ourselves," Cantor told reporters the day after Rep. Mark Critz (D) won his election. "Many people want to predict how many seats we take back in November. I do think we will reclaim the majority, but last night is evidence of the fact that we have a lot of work to do and we can't get ahead of ourselves."

House GOP Conference chair Mike Pence, too, has said he expects the GOP to win the lower chamber.

"I also am staying because I believe we will win back the majority in the House of Representatives in 2010, and I am excited to be a part of it," Pence wrote in a note to supporters earlier this year, after he declined a chance to run for Senate. He echoed the sentiment at an NRA convention earlier this month.

Dems do not believe they will lose the House this year, and they are trumpeting GOP claims as overhyped.

"The hype about this being another 1994 hit the brick wall," DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen told reporters last week. At a roundtable sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor earlier this week, he added: "The Republicans have made it clear that their goal is to take over the House, and nothing less will be considered victory."

Ex-state Sen. Dino Rossi (R) made official his expected bid against Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) today, giving GOPers their best possible candidate and putting another Dem-held seat in play.

In a web video announcing his candidacy, Rossi cast the choice as between a dangerous economic path and "a great campaign to help put things right."

"I've made the decision to run for the United States Senate. I know I won't be able to look my children, and someday their children, in the eye if I do nothing while this fundamental redefinition of America continues unchecked," Rossi said.

Rossi criticized key Dem initiatives, like the "partisan, ill-conceived health care bill," as well as proposals that are not likely to get Senate floor time this year, including cap and trade legislation and a value-added tax.

He also played up his time in the state Senate, where he billed himself as a fiscal conservative rather than a partisan. But Rossi also has to handle his right flank; after 2 statewide GOV bids, Rossi will now face a primary in which some Tea Party groups have already coalesced around other candidates.

It's a tightrope Rossi walks throughout his video announcement, as when he brings up his grandparents' immigration to WA, in search of the American dream: "The dream was never a promise that everybody would have the same things, or that government would provide you with everything you need, no matter what. Our shared American dream was that you would have the freedom to rise as high as your talent and your work ethic would take you," he said.

One thing Rossi did not mention, however, was his rival. The 5-minute video omits any reference to Murray, a popular 3-term incumbent who was herself a state senator when she stunned an incumbent and won the her seat in '92. Instead, Rossi cast his opponent as the status quo: "We're running against an establishment that stands for the politics as usual that got us into this mess," he said.

Dems will pounce on Rossi for his business interests after he left office. In a memo to reporters, the DSCC brings up Rossi's real estate investment company, which Dems believe is ripe for opposition research that didn't exist when Rossi ran against Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) just 2 years ago.

Murray remains the favorite in the race, and her $5.9M bankroll means Rossi will have a steep hill to climb. But in a favorable year, Rossi's entrance makes an 11th Dem-held seat competitive, raising at least the prospect -- however slim -- that the upper chamber is in play.

See Rossi's entire web video announcing his campaign after the jump.

A week after endorsing ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle's (R) bid in a competitive GOP primary, the conservative Club for Growth is up with a new ad touting her candidacy, and slamming one of her leading rivals.

The new spot accuses ex-NV GOP chair/ex-state Sen. Sue Lowden (R) of voting to raise taxes and increase spending during her time in the legislature, all while contrasting her with Angle, the state's "leading fiscal conservative," as the Club calls her.

The Club is the latest conservative organization to side with Angle over Lowden. So far this year, the Our Country Deserves Better PAC, an affiliate of the Tea Party Express, has spent $314K on ads bolstering Angle's cause.

The Club has not yet filed paperwork disclosing how much their ad costs, but spokesman Mike Connolly told Hotline OnCall the ad buy is "significant" and is airing in each of the state's markets.

Still, national GOPers clearly prefer Lowden, who has the financial resources to compete with Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid. Angle was seen as the most conservative member of the state legislature, which GOPers fear would help Reid paint her as far outside the mainstream.

After winning support from the Tea Party group, Angle's poll numbers have skyrocketed, while Lowden's have plummeted. Recent public polling shows Angle is ahead of, or running just slightly behind, Lowden; a month ago, Lowden had a double-digit lead over her nearest rival, businessman Danny Tarkanian (R), while Angle was mired in the low single-digits.

Update: A source with knowledge of the NV ad market passes along information showing the Club has spent $409K on the new buy. The Club is spending $170K this coming week and $239K for the week beginning June 1, the week before Election Day.

The Club's new ad, "Best Choice":

AG Andrew Cuomo (D) has selected Rochester Mayor Robert Duffy (D) as his running mate for the NY-GOV race, according to an NY1 Twitter post this morning.

Duffy previously denied claims that he had been approached by Cuomo for the spot. Spokesperson Gary Walker told the Westchester Journal News 5/17 that the report of him being rumored for the position was "news to me and it's news to him."

Last Thursday, Duffy said about his prospects, "I wouldn't even comment on whether or not I would or would not be. It is all rumor right now and I would not want to feed into it at all."

First elected in '05, Duffy glided to re-election last year with no opposition. He is the second upstate LG pick in the last week, following ex-Rep. Rick Lazio's (R) selection of Chautauqua Co. Exec. Greg Edwards (R).

Duffy's selection quashes of the hope of declared LG candidate/Ramapo Supervisor Chris St. Lawrence (D), who told the New York Daily News last week that he is "a realist in politics and I know that there are times when the ticket has to be balanced. If I am not the pick of Andrew Cuomo, I will support whoever he picks."

"World News" led with attempts to stop the oil leak in the Gulf. "Evening News" led with a CBS poll that suggests people are dismayed with the direction of the U.S. "Nightly News" led with Gulf oil leak.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) called into "On the Record" 5/25 p.m.

McCain, on the 1.2K Nat'l Guard troops Obama has promised for the border, and whether that's "enough": "Of course not. And no one believes that's enough, but that's a good first step. And hopefully, now that the president understands the importance of this issue, we will also get UAVs and we will get more border positions built so that we can give hardship pay to the border patrol that we have, and the rest of the 10-point plan that Jon Kyl and I have. But certainly, it's not nearly enough. But I've got to say it's a good first step."

McCain, on whether he learned about the troops through Obama directly, or the press: "We learned about it in the press. And the interesting thing was that at the luncheon that the president came to with Republican senators, the issue came up and I discussed it with the president, including the fact that we had to secure the borders first, otherwise, we would be faced with a continuous problem of illegal immigrants. And Jon Kyl mentioned the supplemental and that we needed additional troops, and the president didn't say anything then."

After the jump, more from McCain, and an interview with Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell.

Good Wednesday morning. Your Hotline OnCall editor is taking a brief vacation for the rest of the week, but we'll be back, tanned, rested and ready, after Memorial Day. We hope you have a fun and recharging long weekend as well.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

PRES. OBAMA: Most successful WH contenders get there by promising to change Washington. In every case, the veneer of bipartisanship comes off eventually and the promise of real change falls flat. Pres. Obama demonstrated as much yesterday with 2 very different gatherings.

First, a lunch date with the Senate GOP Conference ended with more ill will than it started; Obama asked senators to work with him on a variety of issues like immigration reform. But coming so soon after negotiations over financial regulatory reform collapsed, several GOP senators clearly felt insulted. Sen. Bob Corker (R-TN), burned by the negotiations, challenged Obama's commitment to bipartisanship, and some GOPers went so far as to label him audacious for visiting.

In Obama's second appearance, he had a lot more fans. At a fundraiser for Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) in San Francisco, Obama made light of his earlier meeting with GOPers, saying they had made the decision to sit "on the sidelines." "The day has passed when I expected this to be a full partnership," Obama said, per a pool report. An urgent promise to change a broken DC is nothing new in a presidential candidate. Neither is the partisanship that comes with the job.

BORDER GUARDS: Obama has at least part of a point, though. Yesterday, the WH said it would request $500M to send 1,200 National Guard troops to the border in an effort to crack down on illegal immigration. The GOP, led by Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), promptly told him that wasn't enough. McCain wants 6K Guard troops, even though the Pentagon is wary of sending armed soldiers to the border of a friendly country.

State Rep. Raul Labrador (R) took advantage of weeks of missteps by NRCC "Young Gun"/'08 McCain NV dir. Vaughn Ward (R) to stage a blowout win in the ID-01 GOP primary 5/25. Labrador defeated Ward 48-39%, and will face Rep. Walt Minnick (D-ID) in the fall.

Ward won 8 of the 19 counties in the CD, but Labrador overwhelmed him in Ada and Canyon Cos -- the district's two largest counties.

Just three weeks ago, public polling showed Ward with a strong 2-1 lead over the underfunded Labrador. But in that time, one mistake after another -- taken separately, they would not have been fatal, but collectively they were deadly -- dogged Ward's camp to the point of incapacitation.

It started with the simple complaint that he used someone else's truck in his first TV ad, and snowballed into attacks that he paid his property taxes late; that his wife worked for Fannie Mae, despite the fact that Ward opposed the financial bailouts; that he plagiarized portions of his websites from other GOPers; and that he lifted portions of a Pres. Obama speech for his own kickoff event.

He also didn't exactly endear himself to the establishment, as he irked Sen. Mike Crapo (R) because he touted Crapo's endorsement, when in fact Crapo did not endorse him. Ward also refused to endorse McCain, even though McCain and Sarah Palin endorsed his Cong. bid. Palin even attended an event for Ward last week in order to stop the bleeding from the constant drip of negative press. Obviously, Palin's visit didn't help Ward's swoon.

Throughout the week's of Ward's troubles, Labrador -- who is supported by many ID Tea Party groups -- did little publicly to take advantage of the situation. He raised $173K for the entire race (half of which came from his own pocket), and didn't have enough for TV ads. Ward, meanwhile, aired two before the primary. If Ward would've stayed clean for the last month, he would've carried the contest rather comfortably.

Ward -- who made it to the top-tier of the GOP's "Young Guns" program -- is the highest-ranking "Young Gun" to lose this cycle. Before the constant negative press, Ward seemed to be a strong challenger against Minnick. But after he became damaged goods, it may be a blessing in disguise that the GOP ended up with Labrador.

Still, since Labrador flew under the radar for most of this race, he's yet to be seriously vetted; he won't get such a pass from Minnick. And, Labrador will need to seriously kick up his fundraising if he wants to compete with Minnick's $1M warchest.

This may be the 27th-most GOP seat in the country, but Minnick will not be an easy target. He earned the backing of the nat'l Tea Party Express earlier this year, and also has won praise from the Chamber of Commerce for having the org's best '09 voting record for any Member of the ID delegation -- GOP or Dem. For Labrador to put this race in play, he's going to need to kick up his campaign operation a few notches.

Organizing for America, the second iteration of Pres. Obama's WH'08 campaign, has hired Yohannes Abraham as its new political director, a source tells Hotline OnCall, as the committee gears up for the midterm elections.

Abraham, a veteran of Obama's campaign, served in the Legislative Affairs shop at the WH, where he helped get health care legislation passed earlier this year.

On the campaign, Abraham helped guide Obama's victory in the IA caucuses, worked in several other key primary states and ran the campaign's field program in VA for the general election. After winning, Abraham helped concieve the role OFA would play during Obama's first term.

He replaces Addisu Demissie, who left OFA to take a top policy job with Google.

OFA, a division within the DNC, will be crucial to Dem successes, or failures, during the midterm contests. DNC chair Tim Kaine has said the DNC will spend $50M on the midterms -- $20M directly on campaigns and another $30M on efforts to turn out voters who first cast ballots for Pres. Obama. It will be up to OFA to organize and operate that turnout model.

A day removed from accusations of an affair with a prominent SC blogger, SC state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) is using her best weapon to keep her campaign afloat: Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

Haley is up with a new 30-second spot highlighting her conservative values and making a play for women planning on voting in the June 8 GOP GOV primary.

"I'm a woman that understands that, through the grace of God, all things are possible," Haley says in the ad. Palin appears to laud Haley as a "strong, pro-family, pro-life, pro-Second Amendment, pro-development, conservative reformer."

The ad takes footage shot during Palin's endorsement stop in Columbia earlier this month. On that trip, Palin spent as much time slamming the Obama admin as she did talking up Haley's candidacy.

"There's some good news for your state, and her name is Nikki Haley," Palin said during the May 15 speech. Palin cast Haley, who has not made a lot of friends during her time in the legislature, as an outsider bent on cleaning up a broken system.

It's good timing for Haley, whose campaign was rocked yesterday by allegations that she had an affair with a blogger. The blogger, Will Folks, has hinted he revealed the affair under pressure from one of Haley's rivals.

Haley vehemently denied the affair in a statement released yesterday.

Haley's first ad:

Voters who sympathize with the Tea Party movement are angry about new health care legislation and are far more likely to vote for someone who has never held elected office before, according to a new Society for Human Resource Management/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll.

The survey shows 42% of Tea Party backers agreeing they are more likely to vote for a candidate who has never held office before. Only 11% say they would vote for an incumbent, while 55% of Tea Party supporters say they are less likely to vote for a sitting member.

Those who support the Tea Party are highly likely to be white, middle-aged voters, according to the survey. Of the 25% of adults who say they agree with the Tea Party, 82% are white, and 65% are between 30-64.

Voters in the South are twice as likely as voters in the East or Midwest to identify with the Tea Party, while a higher percentage of respondents in the West -- 27% of the overall electorate, as compared with 25% nationally -- identify with the small-government, anti-tax movement.

The bulk of GOPers say they support the movement, while independents match the national average. Just 6% of Dems say they agree with the Tea Party. And the farther away one lives from a city, the more likely they are to back the Tea Party -- just 22% of urban adults agree with the movement, while 25% of suburban residents and 28% of rural residents are on their side.

Perhaps the most striking factor the Tea Party presents is a united front against Pres. Obama. Tea Party supporters are much faster to blame the Obama admin for the country's problems; 56% say the admin's handling of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico has been poor, fully 40 points higher than those who don't agree with the Tea Party.

Those who support the Tea Party say they trust the GOP to handle the economy better than Dems by a 66%-11% margin, while the general population trusts Dems by a single point. In fact, more than 60% of Tea Party supporters say they trust the GOP more on every issue surveyed -- including the federal budget, immigration, energy policy and terrorism.

The new Pew Research Center/National Journal Congressional Connection survey tested 1,002 adults between May 20-23, for a margin of error of +/- 4%.

House GOP leaders have unveiled a new web portal they hope will lead to greater input from supporters around the country. But, party leaders said Tuesday, they're only looking for ideas that adhere to the GOP line.

In unveiling America Speaking Out, a new website that will gather user-generated content, GOPers hope to begin a discussion they say will lead to legislation this year. Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who will lead the project, promised dialogue on "jobs, spending, national security and whatever is on the minds of the people."

But although party leaders want discussion on issues like reducing the federal deficit and balancing the budget, they said they have already eliminated some avenues of debate.

"In terms of someone who wants to come on and make suggestions on how to raise taxes, for example, they're welcome to do that. That's not something we're going to take up," said Rep. Peter Roskam (R-IL), the vice chair of the new initiative. "We're focusing in on principles that are settled principles."

GOP leaders insisted the project will not be used to build an agenda for the midterm elections -- something that would be in violation of House rules. Instead, they said, they will bring legislation based on ideas submitted by outside users to the floor this year, possibly within weeks.

A majority of Americans give Pres. Obama and his admin bad marks for its handling of a massive oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, according to a new Society for Human Resource Management/National Journal Congressional Connection poll, spotlighting the dangers the admin faces from the growing environmental disaster.

A total of 57% of voters say they rate the admin's handling of the spill as only fair (31%) or poor (26%). Only 31% say the admin is doing an excellent or good job.

Still, BP, the company that owned the Deepwater Horizon platform that once sat atop the leaking pipe, gets worse marks. Fully 70% of voters say the company is handling the matter poorly or only fairly, while just 19% five the company positive marks.

The Obama admin has worked hard from the beginning of the spill to convey a sense that they are engaged and active in trying to stem the damage. Obama is in frequent contact with governors along the Gulf Coast, and his admin -- most notably Interior Sec. Ken Salazar and EPA administrator Lisa Jackson -- have maintained a constant presence in the region to monitor the clean-up.

But BP has largely led efforts to stop the leak, leaving the admin to rely on a corporation to help them avoid political damage. Obama has expressed anger at the slow pace of progress, cutting off aides with a curt imparative in a recent meeting: "Plug the damn hole," Obama said, per the Washington Post.

Meanwhile, the poll, conducted by the Pew Research Center, shows GOPers are gaining ground on Dems in key issue areas. More voters trust GOPers to handle the budget deficit, by a 33%-30% margin, while Dems' advantage on the economy is down to a single point, 34%-33%.

More voters still favor Dems to handle the nation's energy problems, by a 35%-28% margin, while voters pick GOPers to better handle threats from terrorists and immigration, by 11 points and 8 points, respectively.

The survey tested 1,002 adults between May 20-23, for a margin of error of +/- 4%.

Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R) will remain on the primary election ballot, but he will no longer campaign for Sen. Chris Dodd's (D-CT) seat, blaming his primary rival's vast wealth for the harsh political reality.

"Speaking for myself and my family, however, we understand the mathematical reality of competing against an opponent with unlimited financial resources who has already invested over $16.5 million in this campaign -- by far more than any Senate candidate in the country -- and who has an unlimited ability to continue spending at an extraordinary rate," Simmons said in a statement Tuesday morning, referring to ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R).

Simmons said his name would stay on the ballot, but that he will "scale back" his campaign, letting staffers pursue other jobs and cutting off campaign events after McMahon won a surprise victory at the weekend's CT GOP convention. Simmons had said he would drop out if he didn't win the convention but backtracked on those statements.

"While my name will remain on the primary ballot, in the coming months I will devote myself to helping other Republican candidates for public office who I believe will bring to Connecticut and the nation the leadership we need at this most difficult time," Simmons said.

Simmons becomes the third prominent GOP recruit who will not make a general election ballot under the party label. KY Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) lost a primary last week to ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R), and FL Gov. Charlie Crist (I) bolted the GOP when it became clear he could not win his own primary battle.

Simmons' decision leaves open the door to re-enter the contest, should any dramatic revelations about McMahon derail her campaign, but it also means McMahon becomes the overwhelming favorite to pick up the GOP nod. She still faces investor Peter Schiff (R) in the GOP primary, which will take place Aug. 10.

McMahon will head to the general election against AG Dick Blumenthal (D), who won his convention by acclamation over the weekend despite questions over his military service during the Vietnam War. Blumenthal apologized on Monday after striking a defiant pose when reports first came out in the New York Times last week.

Simmons' full statement after the jump.

Two weeks out from the June 8 GOP primary, '02 candidate/'06 LG nominee Bob Vander Plaats (R) is taking aim at Gov. Chet Culver's (D) record in a TV ad while offering an economic platform of his own.

Vander Plaats, who has not been shy about focusing his campaign on social issues, sticks to the economy in the spot, proclaiming, "I'll make Iowa the business startup capital of the world."

Vander Plaats is looking to make up ground late in the race against GOP front-runner ex-Gov. Terry Branstad (R), who appears to be on a trajectory for a general election matchup against Culver. But Vander Plaats sticks to attacks against the Dem incumbent, rather than his more immediate GOP primary foe. Vander Plaats has attacked Branstad from the right in candidate debates.

Vander Plaats becomes the last GOP candidate to go up on TV, following Branstad, who has gone up with several ads, and state Rep. Rod Roberts (R), who went up his first ad earlier this month.

Vander Plaats' ad, "Start-Up Capital Of The World":

"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with the BP oil spill.

WH sr. adviser David Axelrod joined "John King, USA" from the WH 5/24 p.m.

Axelrod, on the conversations that took place between the WH and Sestak: "Well look, I didn't have any conversations with Congressman Sestak and I didn't have any conversations with anybody connected with Congressman Sestak. So all I can tell you is what Robert told you, these allegations were made, they were looked into, and they were found unwarranted."

Axelrod, on whether it's a felony to induce somebody by offering them a job: "Certainly. ... If such things happened, they would constitute a serious breach of the law, and that's why when the allegations were made, they were looked into. And there was no evidence of such a thing."

After the jump, more from Axelrod, and interviews with Senate candidates.

Good Tuesday morning. Voters are headed to the polls in ID to pick GOV and House nominees. Keep an eye on the 1st district, where Rep. Walt Minnick (D) will find out who his opponent is.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter in politics today:

DINO ROSSI: The former WA state senator has decided to challenge Sen. Patty Murray (D) this year, giving GOPers their best possible recruit in a state that has consistently trended the other way in recent years. Rossi will make his announcement Wednesday, a source says, presenting Murray with what may prove her toughest challenge yet. After 2 unsuccessful GOV runs, Rossi brings name ID and money connections to the race, along with a moderate profile that fits the bill of other GOPers elected statewide in the past.

Beating Murray will be no easy task. She's a leader in the Senate, a member of the Appropriations Committee and well-regarded at home, and she has $5.9M in the bank, according to her April FEC reports. But if GOPers want to take back control of the Senate, they have to win a combination of 9 of the following 11 states: WA, ND, DE, IL, PA, NV, AR, CT, IN, CA and CO. GOPers' odds are long, but it's not impossible.

Rossi may also present a test to the Tea Party movement, which has begun coalescing around ex-Redskins tight end Clint Didier (R). Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) endorsed Didier earlier this month, giving him a platform from which to fundraise. Rossi is right of center, but he's no Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC). That means Rossi may face questions from his right flank, even though he is, by far, the most electable GOPer in the race (And possibly the state, though AG Rob McKenna might have something to say about that).

EX-REP. ROB SIMMONS: Simmons has called a press conference today where he is expected to end his bid for Sen. Chris Dodd's (D-CT) open seat. Simmons, who narrowly lost last weekend's GOP convention to ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R), has been under pressure by national and local GOPers to quit his campaign in order to clear the field. Even though GOP leadership recruited Simmons to enter the race last year, McMahon's entry and Dodd's decision not to run changed the landscape. GOPers now feel that McMahon, who has so far spent over $16M of her own money on the race, is the best chance they have to beat AG Dick Blumenthal (D). McMahon will still have a primary against stockbroker Peter Schiff (R), though she now becomes the overwhelming front-runner for the nomination.

Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R) and MI AG Mike Cox (R) are battling over bailouts as they race to replace Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D), lobbing charges of hypocrisy and moderation in a contest that has produced no clear front-runner.

Cox has spent money on 2 TV ads lambsating Hoekstra for voting for TARP, while Hoekstra blames Cox for seeking bailouts for the auto industry in a Washington Post op-ed. But Hoekstra said he won't follow in Cox's lead and run ads based on the essay.

"We will point that out, a real inconsistency in his positions, but we're not going to be running ads on that," Hoekstra told Hotline OnCall in an interview last week.

But Hoekstra and his chief rival have found other differences too. Hoekstra called into question the amount of time Cox spends on federal issues than ones directly associated with the state, including a lawsuit aimed at repealing health care legislation passed into law earlier this year, which Cox joined with other GOP AGs.

"One of the reasons we're feeling good about the race," Hoekstra said, is "we're spending a lot of time in Michigan talking about Michigan issues, Michigan agenda, and these types of things, and you've got Cox's campaign talking more about Washington. And guess what? People don't care about Washington right now. They want to hear about plans, visions, ideas for the state."

House GOPers will roll out a new initiative Tuesday aimed at taking the first step toward introducing a comprehensive national platform, but instead of offering policy proposals, GOP leaders will be soliciting advice instead.

The new initiative, America Speaking Out, will ask supporters to submit ideas through a web-based platform. Fans can then discuss the proposals, some of which will eventually be included in a national platform.

"To return power to the American people and begin to restore the broken bonds of trust between Americans and their elected leaders, House Republicans are asking all Americans to be part of an unprecedented new initiative that will, in time, lead to a new policy agenda," a press release announcing the unveiling reads.

And while the eventual end document could be useful for the GOP during this election season, the end goal is to create an enduring link between Congress and constituents, according to its lead architect.

"This process and document is not about the election. This process and document is about solving problems today," Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who has been heading the program, told Hotline OnCall. "It's about having a conversaion."

McCarthy envisions America Speaking Out as a political and policy answer to Thomas, the Library of Congress's website for legislative information. The program will let voters discuss and debate a bill as it is being crafted, rather than after it reaches the floor.

Rep.-elect Charles Djou's (R) upset win in HI 01 this weekend, and Dems' decision several weeks ago to abandon the race, was the result of a GOP decision to focus their fire on ex-Rep. Ed Case (D), who both parties saw as the stronger Dem running.

Party strategists on both sides acknoweldge Case had the name recognition and the political acumen to beat Djou in a one-on-one matchup. The DCCC quietly helped his campaign, while GOP-affiliated groups, most notably a group called Independent Women's Voice, focused their TV ads and mail campaigns entirely on Case, rather than on state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa (R).

The GOP's entire strategy hinged on treating the race as a one-on-one contest. Case had soft name-ID, according to partisan polling. His support came from independents and those who lean Dem. All the party needed to do was win over the soft GOPers to build a winning coalition.

In the end, the strategy of targeting Case accomplished its goal; Djou took 39% of the vote to Hanabusa's 31%. Case came in third place, with 28%.

But Dems face deeper problems even as they work to convince the media they can win back the district. The party tried to nudge Hanabusa out of the race, arguing she has a ceiling much lower than Case's.

Hanabusa's second-place finish will complicate those efforts. Local Dems are already angry with the national party for meddling, and with labor and the party establishment -- including Sens. Daniel Inouye (D) and Daniel Akaka (D) -- solidly behind Hanabusa, Case faces an uphill fight to win the Dem primary.

What's more, the Sept. 18 primary gives the eventual winner just 6 weeks to stock up on much-needed cash before a general election. Djou already has $200K in the bank for a general contest, giving him an important financial head start.

Dems are beginning to consider the need for some kind of compromise candidate. Hanabusa is still unlikely to win a general election, they believe, and Case will have trouble winning a primary. Though official behind-the-scenes talks have yet to begin, they are likely to start in earnest in the future.

Dems don't have a lot of time; the filing deadline is July 20. DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen is optimistic about his chances of winning the seat back this Nov., despite the fact that HI has never booted an incumbent. If Dems want to change that streak and back up their chairman's claims, they have to move fast to heal what is, at the moment, a splintered party.

It's not often that admitting an affair is seen as a smart political move, but one SC blogger is claiming an improper relationship with a candidate -- one he hopes wins the GOP GOV primary.

Prominent conservative blogger Will Folks, who backs state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) in the state's competitive primary, wrote on his blog this morning that he and Haley have had an affair, and that he wants to admit it to deprive Haley's rivals of a weapon just as Haley catches fire.

"I refuse to have someone hold the political equivalent of a switch-blade in front of my face and just sit there and watch as they cut me to pieces," Folks wrote. "The truth in this case is what it is. Several years ago, prior to my marriage, I had an inappropriate physical relationship with Nikki."

Folks refused to discuss details of the affair, beyond offering apologies to Haley's family and his own wife (The affair occured before Folks was married, he says). But Haley, running as a social conservative, is vehemently denying Folks' assertion.

"I have been 100% faithful to my husband throughout our 13 years of marriage. This claim against me is categorically and totally false," Haley said in a statement. "These attacks -- and those sure to follow -- are an effort at distraction, but I will keep my focus on what matters, and that is delivering South Carolina's government back to our people. That's a fight I have fought for the last five years. That's why I entered this race for Governor. And that's what I will continue to do, despite any outrageous and false claims that are thrown at me."

Haley has surged lately, buoyed by support from ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and ex-SC First Lady Jenny Sanford (R). She is the favored candidate of Gov. Mark Sanford (R), whose PAC recently spent $400K on ads touting her candidacy. And at least one recent poll has shown her leaping ahead of the GOP field.

The GOP is pleased Rep. Joe Sestak (D) won a competitive primary, and not just for the revenge factor: An off-hand comment Sestak made in Feb. is giving GOPers the chance to accuse the WH of attempting to twist arms and play politics.

In an interview with a local radio station during his primary race, Sestak said he had been offered a job by the WH if he were to drop out of the race. Sestak has refused to elaborate on the claim, even though Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) made it an issue in their primary.

"I was offered a job, and I answered that," Sestak said Sunday on "Meet the Press." "Anything that goes beyond that is for others to talk about."

GOPers have used the issue to raise questions about the WH's honesty, transparency and ethics.

"What did the president offer and when did he offer it? It seems like a very straightforward answer to me," RNC chair Michael Steele said on "Fox News Sunday." "Is it proper, ethical and legal for the White House to try to get a sitting member of Congress out of a race because they have other plans? I don't know. The White House has to answer the question."

Rep. Darrell Issa (R-CA), the top GOPer on the House Oversight and Government Reform panel, has pressed the admin for answers as well. Sestak has "alleged what amounts to 3 felonies," Issa told AG Eric Holder at a May 13 hearing. Issa's press shop has hammered the WH on the issue, going so far as to call for the appointment of a special prosecutor to probe the matter.

Though a WH source initially denied the job offer to the Philadelphia Inquirer, WH spokesman Robert Gibbs has since refused to confirm or deny Sestak's claims. On Sunday, Gibbs appeared to suggest for the first time that a job offer had been extended.

"I'm not a lawyer. But lawyers in the White House and others have looked into conversations that were had with Congressman Sestak. And nothing inappropriate happened," Gibbs said on CBS's "Face the Nation." Pressed as to whether the WH offered Sestak a job, Gibbs would only add: "I'm not going to get further into what the conversations were."

The stonewalling has gone to incredible lengths. On Thursday, Gibbs parried with reporters 13 times, refusing to address Sestak's claims, referring to previous comments he made in March. The refusal to talk about Sestak at all has given GOPers an opening.

Leading indicators show the economy is slowly recovering, but the voting public hasn't felt it. That worries leading Dems, who say voters' feelings about their own recovery will make or break their chances this year.

"The biggest challenge remains perceptions of the economy," DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen said Monday at a briefing with reporters sponsored by the Christian Science Monitor. "We've said this election from day one is about the economy and jobs and about how people in November feel about where the economy is headed and how it affects them personally in their daily lives."

"There's still a large majority of people who are unsure and uncertain about the direction of the economy, and that's understandable," Van Hollen added. "We all know we aren't out of the woods yet, but the trends are improving."

To GOPers, Van Hollen's words ring true -- the minority believes the majority will be judged on the economy. But the GOP thinks that argument works more in their favor.

"Democrats have reason to worry about the 'perception of the economy' because the economy is in bad shape, particularly when it comes to the unacceptably high unemployment rate," said Ken Spain, the top spokesman at the NRCC. "Over the past 16 months, Democrats have been focused on growing the size of government and the national debt, but not on growing jobs."

Van Hollen said Dems would use the GOP's vote against the stimulus package, financial regulatory reform and various jobs bills as a cudgel, casting GOPers as willing to bail out Wall Street banks -- many GOPers, including House leadership, voted for TARP in '08 -- but unwilling to help Main Street.

And though some Dems have continued to blame George W. Bush, more than a year after he left office, Van Hollen said the backward-looking argument would be more nuanced.

"It's not about blaming Bush. I think the American people understand we got into this mess largely as a result of the Bush economic policies, but that is not the argument we're making this election," Van Hollen said.

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (I) is still outpolling his partisan rivals, thanks largely to a surge in support from Dem voters, according to a new survey conducted for several FL news outlets.

The Ipsos Public Affairs poll, conducted May 14-18 for the St. Petersburg Times, the Miami Herald, Bay News 9 and Central Florida News 13, surveyed 607 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 4%. Crist was tested against ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D).

GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUP
Crist      30%
Rubio      27
Meek       15

Crist's support comes from a broad coalition of partisan and non-partisan voters, the poll found. He has support from 39% of independent voters, 38% of Dems and 26% of GOPers. Meek, on the other hand, has support from just 33% of Dem voters.

Crist's party switch has both positive and negative ramifications. Fully 47% saw the decision as "opportunistic," while 33% say it was instead an "act of principle." But 49% said they are either already voting for Crist or that move made them more likely to do so.

If Crist is to win the race, many believe he must become the de facto Dem nominee. That possibility became a little bit more difficult over the weekend, when the state AFL-CIO backed Meek despite Crist's last-minute plea. Crist's decision gives Meek a big opening where there may have been none before, but Dem voters' unwillingness to fall in line behind the guy with the (D) after his name shows Dems are still facing a long-shot battle to win the seat.

And Meek isn't even home free in his bid to score the Dem nomination. Billionaire Jeff Greene (D) spent $1.3M on TV ads last week, and he'll spend the same amount this time around. A subsample of voters who said they would cast ballots in the Dem primary, with a high margin of error of +/- 6%, gave Meek 33% of the vote, while ex-Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre (D) took 10% and Greene had 9%. But the poll only included a few days of Greene's advertisements, so watch for his poll numbers -- and Dems' anxiety over Meek's chances -- to rise in the coming weeks.

Good Monday morning. Breaking this morning, CT AG Dick Blumenthal (D) is trying a new tactic: Apologizing for his statements on serving in Vietnam, the Hartford Courant reports. That's a dream come true to GOPers hammering Blumenthal's honesty, who now believe the CT SEN race is in play.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

GOP ACTIVISTS: This much is fact: GOP activists control their party, not anyone in DC. Over the weekend, party activists selected long-shot candidates in conventions in WI and CO, demonstrating to front-runners they have to do some work before a party anointment means anything more than the first mention in a news article.

In CO, LG Jane Norton (R), running against Sen. Michael Bennet (D), skipped the convention process in order to petition her way onto the ballot. That left the door open for Weld Co. DA Ken Buck (R), the Jim DeMint-backed conservative whose surprising rise in the polls has put Norton on defense. And it's a good thing Norton stayed away; even ex-Rep. Scott McInnis (R), who faces a lesser challenge in his CO GOV bid than Buck represents to Norton, lost the convention vote (Caveat: CO has a history of handing primary wins to candidates who did not win the convention).

In WI, businessman Ron Johnson (R), who only jumped in the race this month, has won the state party convention, and with it the endorsement of ex-state Commerce Sec. Dick Leinenkugel (R). Johnson is the only major GOPer running for the right to take on Sen. Russ Feingold (D) this fall. Johnson had more institutional backing than he's let on -- he's a favorite of key WI GOPers, given his ability and willingness to self-fund -- but he is also the more conservative candidate.

With activists asserting themselves, DC GOPers may begin to believe that the inmates are running the asylum. Activists think the sane have finally wrested control of the asylum back from the Beltway inmates.

NRCC CHAIR PETE SESSIONS: The long, excruciating wait is finally over. It was 751 days ago that Rep. Steve Scalise (R-LA) won the right to fill LA Gov. Bobby Jindal's (R) House seat, and in the intervening period, Dems have won every single special House election. Dems' unbeaten streak ended Saturday night, when HI voters elected Honolulu City Councilman Charles Djou (R) to replace ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D).

With ex-LG Jane Norton (R) skipping the CO GOP convention, Tea Party favorite Weld Co. DA Ken Buck (R) easily won the majority of the GOP delegates in attendance on Saturday, affirming his momentum heading into the Aug. 10th primary.

Buck's surge among delegates prompted Norton, national GOPers' favored candidate, to take a pass on the convention and instead directly petition her way on to the ballot, a choice some viewed as a slight to the activists of the party.

Buck, who garnered 77% of the delegates at the convention, beat businessman Cleve Tidwell (R), atty Steve Barton (R) and physician Robert Greenheck (R). Buck's win gives him the first line on the party's primary ballot.

Ex-state Sen. Tom Wiens (R) also skipped the convention and will attempt to gather signatures as well. Norton's camp will turn in more than 20K signatures this week, and the rest of the summer is expected to be a hard-fought battle between Norton and Buck for the GOP nod.

Norton's campaign has suggested Buck's support comes not from grassroots CO activists but from the millions of dollars being dropped on Buck's behalf by third-party groups, including Declaration Alliance, the Rep. Ron Paul-affiliated Campaign for Liberty and Americans for Job Security. Campaign for Liberty went up on TV in Jan. touting Buck, while Declaration Alliance bought radio and TV time in Feb. denouncing the "tax and spend" Norton.

Americans for Job Security was up in air in April, marking Tax Day with a positive Buck ad. A mysterious 501(c)(4) called Taxpayers for Liberty also entered the fray in March, mailing surveys to GOP activists touting Buck's candidacy. Norton's camp is certain at least Declaration Alliance's advertising is funded by a major Buck donor.

Oh, the irony.

Last spring, the NRCC spent $552K on befhalf of NY Assemb. Jim Tedisco (R), and the National Republican Trust PAC spent an additional $820K. Rep. Scott Murphy (D) won that race.

This fall, the NRCC spent $897K on the confused race to replace Army Sec. John McHugh in NY 23. Rep. Bill Owens (D) beat a GOPer and a Conservative Party candidate.

Over the last few months, the DCCC spent $314K beating up Honolulu City Councilor Charles Djou (R), before pulling out earlier this month. Last night, Djou won 40% of the vote against 2 Dems to win ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie's (D-HI) seat.

The NRCC's total spending in the HI 01 race: $0.

Honolulu Councilor Charles Djou (R) defeated 13 other challengers, including state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa (D) and ex-Rep. Ed Case (D), to win a special election to replace ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D-HI 01). Djou led Hanabusa 40-31%. Case followed with 28%.

The win was the first special election victory for the GOP in 11 tries, and the first in a competitive race since '06. Djou's win may also serve to salve the wounds from the party's defeat in the eminently winnable PA-12 special last week. The GOP will surely remind anyone who will listen over the next few weeks that it now controls Pres. Obama's home CD.

NRCC Chair Pete Sessions was quick to revel in the victory. "Eighteen months ago, President Obama carried this district with seventy percent of the vote, which makes Charles Djou's victory an impressive one," he wrote in a statement. Almost immediately after the results were announced, the NRCC sent supporters a fundraising solicitation in an effort to take advantage of the win.

Dems, meanwhile, point to the combined Case and Hanabusa numbers, noting that the majority the Dems took is a sign of things to come this fall in the general election.

Turnout was extremely high, with over 50% of voters returning ballots.

Hanabusa's strong second-place performance is surprising, considering most polls showed Case taking the second place position. It also calls into question the reported DCCC and WH effort to consider backing Case in the contest -- and not Hanabusa, who enjoys the support of labor, party loyalists, EMILY's List the HI Dem establishment (including the state's powerful U.S. Senators).

In fact, Case even aired a TV ad touting the fact that "The White House believes Ed Case has the best chance of beating Charles Djou," even though neither the WH or the DCCC ever went on record in support of his bid.

These results suggest Hanabusa will be the stronger candidate in the upcoming Dem primary.

The DCCC all but forfeited the race earlier this month after it became apparent that Hanabusa and Case would split the Dem vote, opening the door for Djou to win with a plurality. The DCCC spent a total of $314K on the race before discontinuing their funding on 5/10. The NRCC spent nothing, believing that any outside interference would hurt Djou's independent image.

Djou's win may not have been a majority -- and he was certainly helped by Dem divisions -- but it is still impressive in such a Dem-leaning CD. Pres. Obama won it with 70% in '08, and John Kerry took it with 53% in '04. According to the Cook Political Report's PVI ratings, Djou now represents the second-most Dem CD held by a GOPer (LA-02's Joseph Cao (R) holds the seat with the biggest Dem advantage for a GOPer).

Which means that this race will certainly be at the top of the Dem target list in the fall. In fact, in writing off the special earlier this month, DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen pointed to the fact that the party will almost certainly recapture the seat in the fall, when Djou and a Dem challenger will go one-on-one.

GOPers are quick to remind Dems, though, that it's rather difficult to win back seats lost in special elections. In '08, GOPers won back just one of the three seats they lost during the cycle in special elections. All three lean toward the GOP, but Dems held two out of the three seats, including MS-01, which gave John McCain 62% in '08. So it's not automatic that the seat will automatically move back to Dems in the fall.

But considering the numbers, it's hard to deny that a one-on-one race would be very difficult for Djou to win.

GOPers had hoped Djou would cross the 40% threshold tonight, thus proving he had a path to victory in the fall. The fact he nearly accomplished that (he took 39.7% in the preliminary count) will give the party hope that he can hang on in the fall.

GOPers can also hope for a very contentious Dem primary to keep them in the game this fall. And Dems, undoubtedly, are hoping one of their candidates drops out.

With Hanabusa's strong showing, it's almost impossible to imagine her stepping out of the primary, especially since she's proved to be the better fundraiser during the special election. Will there be calls on Case to drop out, considering his disappointing performance?

Polling suggests a primary would be very close. In a late-Apr. Honolulu Advertiser poll measuring special election support, the Dem subsample showed Case and Hanabusa each picking up about a third of the vote.

Both will likely start from scratch in fundraising. But Hawaii holds the latest primary on the schedule -- Sept. 18 -- so both will have plenty of time to restock financially. But that late date is also a curse. If Case and Hanabusa conduct a particularly bloody primary, they'll have just over six weeks to reunite their party and train their fire on Djou.

This was a morale boosting win for GOPers, especially considering how painful businessman Tim Burns' (R) 5/18 PA-12 loss was to the party. But it will only be helpful to the party if they can use the HI-01 win to rebuild the momentum it lost last week. And considering the extenuating circumstances, it doesn't appear this win will pack the punch that Dems got out of PA-12.

With Djou's victory, GOPers will control 178 seats in the House; Dems have 255.

NY AG Andrew Cuomo (D) used a web video on Saturday to announce his expected bid to replace Gov. David Paterson (D), equating Albany with Wall Street and saying both need fixing.

"Manhattan's Wall Street debacle is matched only by Albany's State Street debacle. Our state government in Albany is disreputable and discredited," Cuomo said. "New York State is upside down and backwards; high taxes and low performance."

Cuomo laid out what he called the "New NY Agenda," including sweeping new ethics laws, a cap on taxes and spending, new tax credits for jobs created and education and energy policies during the 21-minute, 2,900-word address.

But Cuomo's approach isn't just aimed at winning the governor's mansion. He said he would aim to take over in Albany with a new crop of state legislators committed to creating the change Cuomo is aiming for.

It's Cuomo's second GOV bid, following an unsuccessful run for the state's top job in '02. Cuomo pulled out of that race just before the primary, when it became clear he would lose to then-Aud. Carl McCall (D).

This time, Cuomo will be the heavy favorite in the race to replace Paterson; polls show he leads any potential GOP contender by wide margins.

Watch Cuomo's video here.

Another week, another lesson: Don't make videos about abstinence with alleged paramours. Ex-Rep. Mark Souder (R-IN) found that out the hard way.

Here's what we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Everyone hates incumbents, from Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) to Arlen Specter (D-AR) and Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV). Dems may have found a strategy to handle their unpopularity and mitigate at least some of their losses -- Rep. Mark Critz (D-PA), who might easily have been saddled with the pseudo-incumbent label, ended up running hard against his own party. If Dem leadership can take the blows, Dem candidates may have to deliver them to survive.

-- The inaugural Society for Human Resource Management/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll released this week shows a nation with little confidence in its political leaders. But it's notable -- and troubling for Dems -- that the lowest ratings in the new Political Confidence Index come from the western U.S., where there is a high concentration of ultra-competitive SEN and GOV races.

-- We learned clout means nothing. Bennett, Specter, Mollohan and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) all made their ability to bring pork back to their states a part of their re-election strategies. The first 3 lost, and Lincoln's 45% showing on Tuesday does not auger well for the incumbent's June 8 runoff against LG Bill Halter (D).

-- Many believe the GOP's over-reliance on the strategy of linking Rep. Mark Critz (D-PA) to Speaker Nancy Pelosi contributed to the party's loss in PA-12. But if new TV ads out this week -- one from VA-02 candidate/car dealer Scott Rigell (R) and another from GOPers in Rep. Gabrielle Gifford's (D-AZ) district -- are any indication, that strategy shows no signs of disappearing any time soon.

-- Being a New York Times reporter can actually be a tough job; the more hard-hitting your reporting is, the more likely you (rightly or wrongly) are to face blowback from your target and his allies (CT AG Dick Blumenthal and the DSCC) and your journalistic competitors (CT newspapers).

-- Ex-state Sen./ex-NV GOP chair Sue Lowden realizes her campaign is suffering, and she's finally going on the attack against her primary opponents -- and not just Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid. So far, though, her attempts to define Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) with pay raises and Scientology don't seem to be as gripping as chickens and RVs. With early voting starting on 5/22, time is running short.

A company owned and operated by ex-state Sen. Dino Rossi's (R) real estate investment firm purchased foreclosed property shortly after he arrived, and then marketed it to investors, according to documents obtained by Hotline OnCall. Rossi, who lost close WA GOV races in '04 and '08, is considering a challenge to Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA).

According to real estate excise tax affidavit documents, in March of '09, CEP II Ballard 09 LLC, which is owned and operated by Coast Equity Partners, at which Rossi is a principal, acquired apartment complexes in Seattle's Ballard neighborhood. The complexes had previously come under foreclosure in Oct. '08, according to separate affidavit documents.

The company later marketed the complexes on its website as the "Voss/Aros Apartments," adding "the assets were purchased from the bank at 45 cents on the dollar," and indicating an opportunity for investors to "enjoy substantial cash on cash return and price appreciation over the hold period."

That stands at odds with statements some GOPers have made defending Rossi's decision to headline a foreclosure conference next week. Rossi will be the featured guest, as first reported by Hotline OnCall, a move that has WA Dems giddy; they have trotted out victims of foreclosure to slam Rossi for his involvement.

"The context of his remarks focus on sharing his story about how he got his start in the commercial real estate business," one GOPer familiar with Rossi's remarks told Hotline OnCall earlier this week. "They have nothing to do with foreclosures and in fact, Dino has had no involvement with foreclosure investments throughout his real estate career."

The RNC spent more than $2K on softball equipment in April, according to reports filed with the FEC, the latest in a string of questionable expenditures that have some major donors frustrated.

The party reimbursed committee staffer Heather Jeffries a total of $2,190 for athletic equipment, according to the reports. One expenditure, listed as for "athletic equipment," was for $1,660. Another, for "athletic equipment softball team," is for $529.

The expenses come after months of scrutiny the RNC has undergone over pricey national committee meetings and a flap over a reimbursement for an evening at a risque L.A. nightclub. That expense ultimately cost at least 4 staffers -- including chief of staff Ken McKay and finance director Rob Bickhart -- their jobs.

McKay, who was fired in early April, was paid a heavy severance after serving at the committee for about a year. He was given a lump sum payment of nearly $63K about 3 weeks after being terminated, the reports show. Bickhart was fired in May; he was taking home at least $16K in salary every month, not counting a side deal that netted him hundreds of thousands more.

But while spending has been a concern at the RNC, the amount of money the party disbursed in April was down considerably from previous months. The RNC raised $6.8M and spent $5.7M, ending April with $12.5M in the bank and no debt.

The DNC, on the other hand, brought in much more money -- $10.4M -- but their spending has increased along with that fundraising. Dems spent just over $10M last month while paying down just $700K of their debt. The DNC has $15.1M in the bank and $2.7M in debt, meaning the RNC has a slightly higher balance sheet than the DNC, even though Dems control the WH and both chambers of Congress.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R-KY), Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), NRSC chair John Cornyn and DSCC chair Robert Menendez. New York Times' Tom Friedman, Wall Street Journal's Paul Gigot, NBC's Andrea Mitchell and Washington Post's Bob Woodward.

Face the Nation hosts WH press sec. Robert Gibbs, Sen. Lamar Alexander (R-TN) and Sestak.

This Week hosts DNC chair Tim Kaine and RNC chair Michael Steele. The roundtable features Washington Post's George Will, ABC's Sam Donaldson, ABC's Cokie Roberts and Dem strategist Donna Brazile.

Fox News Sunday hosts ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R), Kaine and Steele. The Power Player is Liberty Central founder Ginni Thomas.

State of the Union hosts PA Gov. Ed Rendell (D), MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) and BP managing dir. Bob Dudley.

See other weekend shows after the jump.

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) doesn't quite fit any political playbook. He's hardly an outsider, given his office, but he's no insider either -- Bennet's bid for a full term this year is his first run for public office.

But as he faces several rivals with close ties to their party bases and an electorate that has already shown a predisposition to vote out incumbents, the insider-outsider hybrid might just be the key to keeping the job he's held for only 16 months.

In an interview with The Hotline on Thursday, Bennet expressed frustration with DC, still operating at a 20th century pace while the 21st century world leaves it behind. He likened his experiences to his tenure as Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper's (D) chief of staff.

"This is like the biggest city council in the country. It's just fancier," Bennet said.

He has demonstrated that frustration in public, too. Though he voted for the final Senate version of health care legislation, Bennet was the first Dem to rail against special deals being cut for Sens. Ben Nelson (D-NE) and Mary Landrieu (D-LA). Health care legislation will be a boost to his campaign, he said, singling out the process by which it was passed as the reason the bill, and the resulting law, are polling poorly.

"Once people know what is in the bill, they react positively to it, but the health care process is a little like George Bush: No one wants to remember that we went through that. That is why I was so upset at some people in my own party for trying to cut deals. "

And Bennet shows little interest in explaining away votes the Dem majority has taken. He made a point to hold town hall meetings during the health care debate, even as DC Dems advised against it. As a former Denver school superintendent who had to make unpopular decisions about shutting down extraneous schools, he said he would joke to hostile crowds, he's been called every name in the book.

It's an attitude, and a thickness of skin, Bennet wishes other Dems would adopt. After all, the record is there, and the votes have been cast.

"We should not run way from the work we did last year to pass health care, focus on jobs, and encourage innovation in education. We own those decisions," Bennet said.

Supreme Court justices aren't likely to begin tweeting any time soon, but Associate Justice Stephen Breyer thinks the 140-character news dispatches have already changed the world.

Testifying before a House Judiciary subcommittee on Thursday, Breyer said he had his first run-in with Twitter following the disputed elections in Iran, when protestors took to the internet to organize gatherings and to share information and photos.

"Remember when they had that disturbance in Iran? My son said, 'Go look at this.' And oh my goodness. There were some twitterers, as they call them, there were people there with photographs as it went on, and I sat there for 2 hours, absolutely hypnotized," Breyer said. "And I thought, My goodness, this is now, for better or for worse, I think maybe in many respects for better, in that instance, certainly, it's not the same world. It's instant, and people react instantly."

During the course of the hearing, where Breyer and Justice Antonin Scalia talked about a support network for the federal judiciary, Rep. Steve Cohen (D-TN), the chairman of the subcommittee, asked whether the high court would consider using Twitter.

"I don't even know what it is. I've heard it talked about, but you know, my wife calls me Mr. Clueless," Scalia said. "Tweeting," Scalia snorted.

But don't expect @AntoninScalia or @StephenBreyer to crop up as official accounts any time soon. The Supreme Court has been reluctant to take the rudimentary step of broadcasting oral arguments, an issue that has become a point of contention between the Legislative and Judicial branches. That hesitation leaves in doubt whether #StareDecisis will ever become a popular Twitter hashtag.

Still, predicted Breyer: "It's not something that's going to go away."

See the full exchange, courtesy of C-SPAN, after the jump.

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) faces his first political test this weekend, but it won't come at his party's state convention -- rather, it will come as his team manages media coverage over his impending loss.

Bennet, appointed to fill Interior Sec. Ken Salazar's vacant SEN seat last year, faces ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) in the state's Dem convention, which kicks off today. Romanoff has long been a key player in CO Dem circles, while Bennet is a relative newcomer.

Romanoff easily won the series of party caucuses that elected 4K delegates to the convention. Bennet expects to exceed the 30% threshold needed to secure a place on the primary ballot -- his campaign sees him finishing between 35%-41% among delegates -- but he's also collecting the necessary signatures just in case. Both Bennet and Romanoff will address the convention before the vote is cast.

Bennet leads Romanoff in the money chase and in public polls, and Romanoff has pinned his hopes on an impressive showing. But even if Romanoff wins the convention, history suggests he will still be a serious underdog; no Dem convention winner has won a primary since '92. Salazar lost to Dem activist Mike Miles (D) in the '04 convention; Salazar won the primary with 73% of the vote.

The situation is more complicated for GOPers because ex-LG Jane Norton (R) and ex-state Sen. Tom Wiens (R) have decided to skip the GOP convention in Loveland and directly petition their way onto the ballot, a move that angered CO GOP chair Dick Wadhams and party activists.

Only ID voters head to the polls on Tuesday, but that doesn't mean we have a primary day bereft of excitement, thanks to the GOP contest to determine who will challenge Rep. Walt Minnick (D) in the fall. It's a seat GOPers likely have to win if they want to win back the majority this fall.

Veteran Vaughn Ward (R), who ran McCain's NV effort in '08, was the party's early favorite in the race. Challengers, such as state House GOP Caucus Chair Ken Roberts (R), came and went, but Ward remained the party fave.

The specter of a run by ex-Rep. Bill Sali (R) hung over the race, though, and his potential entry served to help freeze the race for a time. When he finally decided not to run, he backed state Rep. Raul Labrador (R).

The primary has been strange in that the major developments haven't come by way of attacks between the Labrador and Ward camps, but they've come via the media. In the campaign's final month, Ward's camp found itself constantly responding to newspaper stories focused on Ward's campaign blunders.

The barrage started when Ward admitted to using someone else's pickup truck to film his first TV ad. The Idaho Statesman then reported that -- despite the fact Ward opposed the financial bailouts -- his wife worked at Fannie Mae, an organization that received federal bailout funds.

Accusations of late property tax payments, forged issue positions on his website, and the fact that he didn't vote in the '08 election cascaded. Alone, none of these attacks would be fatal. But taken together, they appeared to show a campaign in disarray. In the end, Ward was forced to replace his campaign manager and hire a spokesman.

Dem enthusiasm has been lacking in primary races around the country this year, but the battle between Sen. Arlen Specter (D) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D) cost the GOP a House seat, according to a post-game analysis from the pollster who handled the race for the NRCC.

In a post mortem memo, Public Opinion Strategies partner Gene Ulm wrote that GOP turnout in the race to replace the late Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) was actually up, but that Dem excitement over the SEN primary drove voters to the polls, and handed Mark Critz (D) an 8-point win.

"[T]he special election coincided with very competitive Democratic primaries that inflated the number of base Democrats anxious to defeat Arlen Specter," Ulm wrote in the memo to NRCC executive director Guy Harrison.

Though the district was the only seat in the country to vote for Sen. John Kerry (D-MA) in the WH'04 contest and flip to Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) in '08, the primary brought out core Dem constituencies excited to back Sestak, and therefore more likely to vote for Critz over businessman Tim Burns (R).

Critz significantly underperformed throughout the district. A total of 82,675 voters cast ballots in the SEN primary, while Critz won 70,915 votes. In Greene Co., in the southwest corner of the state, Critz underperformed by 17%, Ulm noted.

But, Ulm said, the GOP's message worked, and without the primary boosting liberal turnout, Burns would have won. Dems who voted for Burns told pollsters they were angry with government spending, health care and Dems in Congress.

"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with updates on the Gulf oil spill.

Ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) entered the "Situation Room" 5/20 p.m.

CNN's Blitzer: "I want to give you a chance to explain because there's a lot of confusion right now about precisely where you stand. I'll ask you a simple question. If you had been a member of the Senate or the House back in 1964, would you have voted yea or nay for the Civil Rights Act?"

Paul: "Yes, I would have voted yes."

Paul, on why there is "confusion emerging" about his position on the Civil Rights Act: "I think what troubles me is that the news cycle's gotten out of control. For several hours on a major news network yesterday, they reported repeatedly that I was for repealing the Civil Rights Act. That is not only not true, never been my position, but is an out and out lie. They repeated it all day long. It started with my Democrat opponent asserting this but has never been my position."

After the jump, more from Paul, and an interview with AZ Gov. Jan Brewer (R).

Good Friday morning, and happy national Bike to Work Day. We hope you got a chance to ride in this morning.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter in politics this weekend:

PRES. OBAMA: Obama is taking his first major steps to overhaul the country's national security apparatus, forcing DNI Dennis Blair to resign after losing confidence in the office in the wake of several intelligence failures. Obama has already been interviewing other candidates for the job, reported ABC News, which broke news of Blair's resignation.

There is a political aspect to the homeland security debate. GOPers have tried to mold the Christmas Day bombing attempt, the Ft. Hood shooting and the Times Square bombing attempt into failures that rest on Obama's shoulders. They have found little success, but voters generally trust GOPers on national security more than they trust Dems. Obama, in other words, doesn't have much room for error.

Meanwhile, as our colleague Marc Ambinder points out, the admin has a new expression for current military and foreign operations -- Countering Violent Extremism. It's set to become, to Obama, what "Global War on Terror" was to the Bush admin. Note the absence of words like "Islamic," "jihad" and "war." They may not matter to independent and middle-of-the-road voters, but just wait for the right-wing talkers to get their hands on this one.

CT DELEGATES: It's convention day in CT, and it's a pivotal day for 2 people in particular -- AG Dick Blumenthal (D) and ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R). For Blumenthal, it's a chance to prove the the Dem establishment is behind him. Dems are pretty happy with how he's handled questions about his Vietnam-era service so far, and if he gets a VERY significant majority today, it could put a lot of rumors to rest regarding replacement candidates.

The NRSC outraised its Dem counterpart last month, coming within $100K of parity with its Dem counterpart, becoming the only GOP committee running even with its Dem rival.

The NRSC pulled in $4.4M in April, ending the month with about $17M in the bank. The committee spent about $2.4M in the last month.

DSCC fundraisers, meanwhile, actually saw their cash on hand number drop; the committee raised $3.1M and spent $3.25M. The party has $17.1M to spend on Senate races this fall.

Both parties have seen their receipts drop off from last cycle, a net benefit for the GOP. At this point 2 years ago, the DSCC had an $18.2M advantage over the NRSC -- 182 times the advantage they have now.

Dems hasten to add that their party typically outraises the NRSC over a quarterly period. Regardless, the difference between the 2 committees' cash flow is now minimal.

Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) today blamed the left-leaning Louisville Courier-Journal editorial board for a controversy over the civil rights views of ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R), who is running to replace Bunning with the Hall of Fame pitcher's backing.

In an April interview with the paper, Paul questioned restrictions the Civil Rights Act's puts on private business owners while stressing that he supported the bill's role in ending discrimination. The interview appeared to spark questions during MSNBC and NRR interviews of Paul this week that put a spotlight his civil rights view.

He clarified his support for the '64 act today. The Courier-Journal called Paul's view "repulsive to people in the mainstream," in an April 25 editorial.

"Do you know the editorial board of the Courier-Journal?" Bunning, asked reporters this afternoon. "It is as far left as you can get."

"I think that's the way they wanted it to come out," Bunning said. "They would use it after the fact, because they have a candidate that they endorsed, that won the primary on the other side."

Bunning declined to comment on Paul's statements themselves, saying he had not seen them. He said he himself supports the Civil Rights Act.

Bunning also said "there are a lot of us in the Republican Party who want to see Rand Paul and his voting and how he will vote in the U.S. Senate, [become] the position of the Republican Party."

Asked if his fellow KY senator, Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell, with whom he has a notoriously bad relationship, represents that position, Bunning said, "Not all the time."

Incumbent members of Congress were the big losers in Tuesday's primary elections, according to a survey of National Journal Political Insiders.

Fully 68% of Dems and 46% of GOPers pointed to incumbents as the group that lost the most, though 31% of GOPers singled out Sen. Arlen Specter's (D-PA) loss in calling Pres. Obama the biggest loser.

"The only thing we know for sure about 2010 is that a large number of incumbents will lose," said one Dem insider. Concurred a GOPer: "Disgust with the status quo cuts across all lines -- partisan and ideological. This could be a good year for the 'none of the above' choice."

Even though Dems won a House seat in Southwestern PA, insiders in both parties pointed to some of the president's policies as cause for political trouble.

"Until Pres. Obama realizes that he has a night job in the election year of being head of the Democratic Party and not being scared of his own shadow or too politically risk-averse to participate in these elections, he will remain a loser," said one of the 9% of Dem insiders who called Obama out.

"Even where the Democrat won, he campaigned against Obama's health care legislation. The message if you're a Democrat: Find separation from the Obama agenda," said a GOP insider.

Meanwhile, those surveyed -- a who's who of prominent political consultants, party strategists and party leaders -- said challenger candidates were the clear winners. Huge bipartisan majorities (71% of Dems, 72% of GOPers) said non-incumbents came out ahead.

"Anyone who fails to recognize an overriding theme of 'change' across the country is likely an incumbent who is soon to be privatized," a Dem said. Added a GOPers: "Voters are giving incumbents one strike before they're out."

One in 5 Dems said they saw themselves as the big winners, thanks to Rep. Mark Critz's (D-PA) win. Party strategists also believe Dems nominated stronger general election candidates in SEN races in PA, with Rep. Joe Sestak (D), and KY, where AG Jack Conway (D) will take up the party banner.

For full results from this week's Insider's Poll, and more insights from our top strategists, click here.

The NRCC raised $2M more than the DCCC did in April, raising $7.1M to the DCCC's $5.1M and closing a fundraising gap that has plagued the GOP for months.

While the DCCC still retains a significant advantage in cash on hand with its $27.3M to the NRCC's $11.4M, House GOPers' cash intake has been on the rise as their prospects improve, despite a disappointing finish in the special election in PA-12 on Tuesday.

And while Dems have made much of their cash advantage, that advantage is actually significantly smaller than it was during the '08 cycle. After April '08, Dems enjoyed a nearly $38M advantage; now, that edge is $15.9M.

Both committees are debt-free heading into the general election.

The Staten Island GOP wants their old representative back, even after a scandal prematurely ended his political career and handed a seat to Dems.

The local party committee endorsed ex-Rep. Vito Fossella (R) in a meeting last night, picking the former 7-term member over ex-Bloomberg aide (R) and businessman Mike Grimm (R). Both Allegretti and Grimm are "On the Radar" Young Gun contenders.

Fossella announced he would retire in '08 rather than face voters after he was arrested for driving under the influence in May of that year. Fossella later admitted he was driving to his mistress's home in Alexandria, VA. Fossella, who is married with children, also revealed he had fathered a daughter with the mistress.

Fossella has not said whether he will run for re-election, though some NY GOPers believe he is looking for a way to return to politics. He has not contacted the NRCC about a potential run, an NRCC spokesman told Hotline OnCall.

Establishment GOPers are furious at the pick. Ex-Rep. Guy Molinari (R), a long-time Staten Island party boss, told the Staten Island Advance the local GOP had "reached a new low." Molinari is backing Grimm's candidacy.

The eventual winner will face Rep. Mike McMahon (D), who won the district in Fossella's absence in '08, in Nov.

Ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) is playing defense after saying in interviews he would oppose using the Civil Rights Act to impose restrictions on private businesses.

In interviews on MSNBC and with NPR this week, Paul would not say whether he would have voted for the '64 legislation, which banned many forms of discrimination. Paul said he did not support government involvement in private businesses.

In a statement today, Paul said he unequivocally supports the Civil Rights Act, and that sections of the bill are settled law. He would not support any efforts to repeal the measure, he said.

"I have clearly stated in prior interviews that I abhor racial discrimination and would have worked to end segregation," Paul said in a statement. "I support the Civil Rights Act because I overwhelmingly agree with the intent of the legislation, which was to stop discrimination in the public sphere and halt the abhorrent practice of segregation and Jim Crow laws."

"These attacks prove one thing for certain: The liberal establishment is desperate to keep leaders like me out of office, and we are sure to hear more wild, dishonest smears during this campaign," Paul added.

Dems have put serious effort into defining Paul in the days following his surprisingly strong GOP primary win on Tuesday. The party has blasted Paul, running to replace retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R), for holding his victory party at a country club, and for some of his more controversial remarks.

The GOP is pushing back. In an email this afternoon, the NRSC defended Paul by pointing out that Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) helped lead a filibuster against the Civil Rights Act.

Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) will not run for re-election as a write-in candidate, he said, ending an 18-year Senate career and bringing to a close a UT political dynasty.

In a brief statement at NRSC headquarters, Bennett said he would forgo what could have been a long-shot campaign. Bennett said he had received an outpouring of support from UT GOPers after he lost his bid for renomination at a party convention earlier this month.

Bennett had flirted with the idea of running a campaign after finishing third at the convention. Only the top 2 contenders advance. The deadline for running as an independent candidate passed in March, meaning a write-in campaign was Bennett's only option.

Had he decided to continue his bid, Bennett would have faced an uphill climb. Though he is well-known in the state, raising money for a write-in bid and educating voters would have proven expensive, and could have divided the state's electorate. Only one senator -- the late Strom Thurmond (R-SC) -- has ever waged a successful write-in campaign.

"It's been an interesting decision to have to make because the outpouring of support and urging that I do run a write in campaign has been very strong, not only across the state and from every aspect of the state but from other parts of the political world, particularly my colleagues here in Washington, both those who are currently sitting and former colleagues who have bombarded me with statements that I should run [and] poll numbers that suggest that if I did I would be just fine, that I would certainly be the strongest candidate in the general election in November," Bennett said, according to the Salt Lake Tribune.

But, he added: "Weighing it back and forth between those who tell me that they feel its my duty to do it and my own examination of the cost that it would take and the toil that would be taken on the situation in Utah both have led me to come down on the side of not to do it."

Bennett's decision means the winner of a June 22 GOP primary will be the heavy favorite in Nov. Business consultant Tim Bridgewater (R) and attorney Mike Lee (R) finished first and second, respectively, at the party convention, meaning they will compete for GOP votes next month.

The eventual winner will face state Alcoholic Beverage Control Commission chair Sam Granato (D) in a state that hasn't sent a Dem to the Senate since '70.

Rep.-elect Mark Critz's (D-PA) victory in a special election contest on Tuesday shows the GOP's approach to the fall midterms is fundamentally flawed, DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen said today, voicing new confidence his party can avoid wide-spread losses in the fall.

"It's clear the Republicans did a test run of their November strategy in Pennsylvania 12, and that it crashed," Van Hollen told reporters today, referring to Critz's southwestern PA district.

GOPers did their best to nationalize the only Tuesday election in which a Dem faced off against a GOPer. Pres. Obama and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi made appearances in the district, but only in ads paid for by businessman Tim Burns (R) and the NRCC.

"The Republicans tried to make [Obama] an issue. We know that from the campaign ads they ran," Van Hollen said. "The voters rejected the scare tactics that are coming out of the Republican playbook this year."

Critz took 70,915 votes, or 52.6%, while Burns won just 60,740 votes, 45.1%, according to unofficial results from the PA Department of State.

In his own statement, NRCC chairman Pete Sessions called the results "undoubtedly disappointing," but he said there is clear evidence that Dems are running away from the WH and Congressional leadership. Critz said he did not favor health care legislation passed earlier this year, but that he opposed repeal; he also voiced opposition to Dems' cap and trade legislation.

"This hard-fought race gave us an early preview of what Democrats will attempt to do in the fall in order to survive," Sessions said. "They will steer clear of publicly campaigning with Pres. Obama and Speaker Pelosi, distance themselves from the Democratic agenda, and attempt to co-opt Republican positions on the issues."

New polls out of the Golden State show different results as GOP contenders hurtle toward the June 8 primary, but they agree on one thing: The races for the GOP GOV and SEN nominations are getting tight.

A Public Policy Institute of CA surveyed 411 likely GOP primary voters between May 9-16 for a margin of error of +/- 4.8%. In the SEN contest, ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R), ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) and Assemb. Chuck DeVore (R) were tested. In the GOV matchup, ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) and Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R) were tested.

SEN PRIMARY MATCHUP             GOV PRIMARY MATCHUP
Fiorina     25% (+1 from 3/16)  Whitman     38% (-23)
Campbell    23  (+0)            Poizner     29  (+18)
DeVore      16  (+8)

Meanwhile, an M4 Strategies (R) poll, conducted May 12-13 and May 16 for the Small Business Action Committee, surveyed 600 high-propensity GOP voters, for a margin of error of +/- 4%. The same candidates were tested.

SEN PRIMARY MATCHUP             GOV PRIMARY MATCHUP
Campbell    33%                 Whitman     49%
Fiorina     28                  Poizner     32
DeVore      15

Whitman has lost traction in recent weeks as Poizner has portrayed her as insufficiently conservative on a number of issues, most notably immigration. She is still clearly ahead, but even close advisors have acknowledged that internal numbers show the race tightening.

On the Senate side, meanwhile, Campbell's lead throughout the primaries has shrunk. PPIC has shown Fiorina leading their last 2 surveys; a Jan. poll had Campbell ahead. And DeVore, the most conservative of the bunch, is picking up undecided voters as Campbell and Fiorina focus fire on each other.

Whitman's numbers are falling among college graduates and those with incomes above $80K, according to PPIC analysts. In the SEN contest, women make up the bulk of the undecided voters, though Campbell and Fiorina are running neck and neck among women voters. DeVore has pulled even with the 2 front-runners among voters under 54 years old, but he trails badly among voters over 55 years old.

Dems and GOPers will meet in convention separately this weekend to bestow endorsements on favored candidates as questions swirl over AG Dick Blumenthal's (D) presentation of his Vietnam War-era record.

For each party, candidates must receive at least 15% of delegates to qualify for the Aug. 10 primary, but must receive more than 50% to receive the official party endorsement.

On the Dem side, frontrunner Blumenthal was expected to receive only minimal competition from businessman/ex-USAF officer Merrick Alpert (D). But Alpert and other concerned Dems have suggested that in the wake of a bombshell New York Times story questioning Blumenthal's honesty about his military service, Alpert's chances are improving as scared delegates shun Blumenthal.

Complete results from the SEN vote will be announced at about 10 p.m. on Friday, revealing whether Blumenthal has emerged from the scandal with the backing of the CT Dem establishment.

For GOPers, ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R), ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) and stockbroker Peter Schiff (R) will face off for the GOP nomination on Friday afternoon.

The stakes are especially high for Simmons, who has said he will drop out of the race if he doesn't receive the GOP endorsement. But McMahon and Schiff have said that if they don't win the endorsement, they will continue on, and would need to garner at least 8,200 signatures by June 8 to get on the primary ballot. The GOP delegates will begin voting at 2 p.m. on Friday, and then the winning candidate will address the convention floor.

Both parties meet again on Saturday to repeat the process for CT GOV candidates.

For the Dems, '06 SEN nominee/businessman Ned Lamont (D) and '06 candidate/ex-Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D) will vie for the nod. Results should be available at about noon. Both candidates have vowed to fight on if they don't receive the official endorsement.

On the GOP side, the large field of LG Mike Fedele (R), ex-U.S. Amb. to Ireland Tom Foley (R), ex-Rep./ex-Univ. of New Haven pres. Larry DeNardis (R), and businessman Oz Griebel (R) will be winnowed down to one by 2 p.m. on Saturday. Fedele and Foley have said they will move on to the primary whether or not they receive the endorsement.

"World News" and "Evening News" led with the arrival of the heavy oil in the LA marshlands. "Nightly News" led with voter discontent.

AR LG Bill Halter (D) went on the "Ed Show" 5/19 p.m.

Halter, on the election: "At the end, voters decided that they wanted change and not just the status quo. We said over and over again, if you send the same people back to Washington, you're guaranteed to get the same results, and 55 percent of Arkansans yesterday said in a democratic primary, we don't want to send the same people back. That's why we have a run-off and that's why we're going to win on June 8th."

Halter, on whether he can "count on the same people that got" him close 5/18 to "close the deal" for him: "We're up against the Chamber of Commerce. We're up against $1.5 million in negative ads from a Republican group trying to intervene in a Democratic primary to buy a Senate seat. We need everybody's help, but we're going to win. Make no mistake about it, [May 18] was step one. June 8th will be step two. Step three is in November."

Halter, on the battle between him and Lincoln between now and 6/8: "I'm not going to be negative, but I'm not going to be afraid to talk about her votes and her positions on issues, and to make sure that everybody knows what the comparison is. ... What I'm really all about here is a positive, affirmative vision for middle class families in Arkansas and standing up against powerful interests who don't have those families' best interests at heart" (MSNBC, 5/19).

After the jump, other race updates.

Good Thursday morning. It's May 20, the day committees file their monthly money reports. Be sure to follow @FECtweets on Twitter to get the latest money numbers and our observations about each party's financial health.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who matter in politics today:

SHARRON ANGLE: The NV assemblywoman was the first candidate to win backing from the Tea Party Express, a PAC based in CA that has engineered 2 cross-country bus trips. Now, she has backing from the Club for Growth, the conservative DC-based group that has a knack for influencing GOP primaries. And in the race against Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, Angle is surging.

Though GOPers in DC prefer another candidate -- ex-NV GOP chair Sue Lowden (R) -- Angle's poll numbers are the ones making news. Earlier this month, a Las Vegas Review-Journal survey showed Angle at 25%, just 5 points behind Lowden. Angle's support had risen 5-fold, while Lowden's has dropped precipitously after the candidate and her campaign bumbled for a month over whether constituents should barter for health care.

Angle's rise is good news for one person in particular: Reid. Though his path to victory is narrow, Reid can broaden it by casting his eventual GOP rival as out of the mainstream, and Angle has the most conservative record of any candidate running in the GOP field. An Angle win would be a setback for the GOP establishment and another win for the Tea Party movement, coming on the heels of Rand Paul's (R) victory in KY. But in clinching the nomination, Angle could be handing Reid a golden opportunity.

SENATE MAJ. LEADER HARRY REID: The Senate will vote again today on financial regulatory reform, attempting to surmount the final hurdle on the way to winning final passage. Reid came close yesterday, thanks to support from Sens. Susan Collins (R-ME) and Olympia Snowe (R-ME), but the vote failed by a 57-42 margin.

The AFL-CIO wants credit for helping LG Bill Halter (D) force Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) into a runoff election, and they've pledged to keep spending to support Halter's cause in advance of the June 8 rematch.

"We are certainly ready and able to spend whatever we need to spend on behalf of Halter," said AFL-CIO Pol. Dir. Karen Ackerman. "We will spend the next 3 weeks ... continuing the campaign to turn out voters."

On a conference call with reporters earlier today, Ackerman credited the AFL-CIO's work in helping to force a runoff. "It was really just the incredible enthusiasm of union activists in Arkansas who ran an extremely aggressive member to member communication program," said Ackerman.

When asked to respond to Lincoln's criticism of the influence of outside groups in the race, Ackerman said, "There's nothing outside about people who are members of unions in Arkansas. So I don't know what she's talking about."

Ackerman also grabbed credit for Rep.-elect Mark Critz's (D) victory in PA-12, where union volunteers helped turn out the vote.

Yet labor groups lost at least one battle, and Ackerman sought to downplay AFL-CIO-backed Sen. Arlen Specter's (D) defeat at the hands of Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) in the PA SEN Dem primary.

"The voting record of Sestak and Specter is not all that dissimilar," argued Ackerman. "It is harder to make a case in a primary that one candidate is significantly better." She praised Sestak, though stopped short officially endorsing him, saying they expect to make their endorsement for the general election "fairly soon."

Ackerman argued jobs and the economy, not health care, will be atop voters' minds. And while she was not willing to put a precise figure on how much would be spent on protecting incumbents this cycle, Ackerman said "we are looking at about 18 states" where there are SEN and/or GOV races. "At this point we may be looking at 60-70 House races that we intend to play in," she added.

The battle for the AR Dem nomination won't be decided for another 3 weeks. According to the latest update on the Arkansas Democrat Gazette web page, with 99% of the precincts reporting, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) won 45% to LG Bill Halter's (D) 43%.

The AR Sec/State's office, which has fewer votes reported, gives Lincoln 44.4% and Halter 42.6%. In either case, since neither candidate won a majority of the votes cast, state law requires a run-off between the two candidates on June 8.

A preliminary analysis of the vote shows that Lincoln performed strongest in the most urban and establishment areas of Arkansas: She appears to have captured a majority of the votes in Pulaski County (Little Rock), the largest county in the state. Lincoln also performed relatively well in the Delta region of the state along the Mississippi. Both Pulaski and the Delta have larger percentages of black voters than in other areas of the state and in these places Pres. Obama's endorsement certainly helped Lincoln.

Conversely, in more GOP-leaning areas of the state, like its southwest corner that includes Garland County (Hot Springs), Halter ran relatively stronger than he did statewide. Halter also did well in the Northwest, but in Washington County (Fayetteville) which includes the University of Arkansas, Lincoln prevailed, even though Halter was endorsed by MoveOn.org.

AR does not have party registration so any voter can participate either the Dem or GOP primary. With local races still dominated by Dems, many voters who usually support GOP candidates at the federal level still participate in the Dem primary. More than 325K voters cast ballots in the Dem primary, compared to just under 140K who participated in the GOP primary, which Rep. John Boozman (R) won with about 53% of the vote.

Lincoln faces a real test in the run-off. Although Halter ran to Lincoln's left, he did relatively well in GOP areas. And without a GOP run-off on June 8, a few more of those GOP-leaning voters who have grown weary of Lincoln could come out for Halter.

Another question is where will the supporters of the third candidate in the Dem primary, D.C. Morrison, go? He ran to the right of Lincoln, but Halter's insurgent candidacy could also attract some of the 40K-plus who voted for Morrison. It would not be the first time that the runner-up candidate won a run-off in the South.

RNC chair Michael Steele has been the victim of an organized campaign to spread mistruths about his tenure, an emerging ally of Steele's charges in an uncommon letter to fellow RNCers.

OR GOP chair Bob Tiernan, a relatively new member of the committee who backed Steele during his run for chairman in '09, has sent a letter to fellow RNC members specifically calling out OR RNC member Solomon Yue for what Tiernan characterizes as an organized campaign of "secret attacks."

"One of the bigger disappointments during these past 16 months is watching the dissention and attacks launched by some RNC members, toward Chairman Steele. Front and center of these 'attacks' are the ones launched, mostly in 'secret', by a few RNC members," Tiernan wrote. "One of those members who launches these 'secret attacks' is from the Oregon delegation. Solomon Yue has been stirring dissention within the RNC since the day I was elected."

"Solomon Yue's actions are undermining the leadership and staff of the RNC and taking the RNC away from its mission of spending all its resources, talents and time getting Republicans elected," Tiernan added, accusing Yue of "spreading hate and discontent" within the GOP.

Sen. Arlen Specter got a tough lesson on the limits of political expediency last night when the GOPer-turned-Dem incumbent got run over in the primary by Rep. Joe Sestak (D). Sestak captured 54% of the vote to Specter's 46%.

Going down in defeat, Specter, who had won 10 previous statewide campaigns (5 GOP primaries and 5 general elections) captured only 3 of the states 67 counties -- Dauphin (Harrisburg), Lackawanna (Scranton) and Philadelphia, home to the state's major city.

But Specter's strength in Philadelphia did not extend into 4 key suburban counties that ring the city; Bucks, Chester, Delaware, and Montgomery. In the past those 4 have been part of Specter's base, but they weren't on Tuesday.

It wasn't surprising to see Sestak romp in Delaware with more than 68% of the vote, because that's where most his congressional district lays. But he also took 60.5% in next door Chester, as well as 50.8% in Montgomery, the largest of the ring suburban counties, and 55.1% in Bucks, which doesn't contain any of Sestak's district.

In western PA, Sestak only edged Specter in Allegheny County (Pittsburgh), 53%-47%, but he handily defeated his rival in the suburban Pittsburgh counties like Armstrong, Beaver, Butler, Washington and Westmoreland.

AZ Gov. Jan Brewer (R) on Tuesday notched another victory for her brief tenure, but it's unlike a victory any other GOPer is likely to brag about -- facing a competitive GOP primary, Brewer spearheaded a tax increase.

On Tuesday, AZ voters approved Proposition 100, a measure to increase the sales tax by 1% for 4 years, by a wide 64%-36% margin. Brewer spearheaded the campaign, aimed at closing a budget gap for the ailing Copper State, and even appeared at the campaign's victory rally last night.

Brewer's rivals, including NRA board member Owen "Buz" Mills (R), Treas. Dean Martin (R) and ex-AZ GOP chair John Munger (R), all opposed Prop. 100, and they've accused Brewer of working to raise taxes -- normally a deathknell in GOP politics, all the more so when a GOP candidate keynotes the proposition's victory rally on election night.

Clearly, raising taxes isn't going to be as popular as voters as signing a tough immigration reform bill, which Brewer signed last month. Polls show the new bill, which gives law enforcement officials the ability to request papers from anyone they suspect may be in the U.S. illegally, is hugely popular, especially among the GOP base.

But Brewer will also get some benefit out of backing the tax hike, according to sources watching the AZ race closely. Jason Rose, a GOP strategist who headed the Prop. 100 campaign, estimated that 30%-40% of GOP voters backed the legislation. And by backing such a successful initiative, GOPers hope she has demonstrated leadership she'll be able to use in the general against AG Terry Goddard (D).

Solicitor General Elena Kagan will face the lights, cameras and action of a Senate confirmation hearing on June 28, Senate Judiciary Committe chair Patrick Leahy said today.

In a statement, Leahy said the schedule will allow the nomination proceed at the same pace as previous nominees.

"This is a schedule that I think is both fair and adequate - fair to the nominee and adequate for us to prepare for the hearing and Senate consideration," Leahy said. The hearings are scheduled to begin 49 days after Kagan's nomination was announced -- a day later than Sonia Sotomayor was given before her nomination came before the committee.

Leahy and Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL), the committee's ranking GOPer, sent a joint questionnaire for Kagan to complete, a 202-page document [pdf], after her answers, which she returned yesterday. The top 2 committee members also met yesterday to discuss a timetable, and they sent a joint letter to the Clinton presidential library requesting documents relating to Kagan's work in the WH during the last Dem administration.

Leahy's schedule would allow hearings to conclude before the Senate leaves town for a week. In his own statement, Sessions said he believed hearings should begin after the July 4 recess.

"At this time, it remains to be seen whether the schedule set by the Chairman will be adequate to allow us to meet our important constitutional responsibility to thoroughly review Ms. Kagan's record on behalf of the American people and to hold respectful and substantive hearings that reflect well on both our Committee and the entire Senate," Sessions said. He added that if any new revelations crop up, GOPers "would be obligated to demand additional time."

Leahy said the GOP shouldn't need excessive amounts of time to prepare questions for a nominee they have scolded for lack of experience on the bench.

"This last weekend, Republican Senators said that Solicitor General Kagan's answers at the hearing were going to be the key. If that is true, and if they will approach the hearing with open minds and listen to her answers to those questions, we should not needlessly delay her opportunity to respond," Leahy said. And, he added: "Republican Senators say that they want to ask Solicitor General Kagan about her actions as the Dean of Harvard Law School and about her judicial philosophy. It does not take two months to prepare to ask those questions. They have already raised them. They will surely be prepared to ask them by late June."

GOPers, including Senate Min. Whip and Judiciary Committee member Jon Kyl (R-AZ), admit they have little hope of slowing Kagan's nomination down, but some have begun expressing strong opposition to Obama's second SCOTUS nominee. Most observers expect Kagan to be confirmed well in advance of Congress's Aug. recess.

Outside conservative groups have largely focused on Kagan's amicus brief over military recruiting on college campuses, but right-leaning opposition hasn't even approached the muted outcries Sotomayor faced. Meanwhile, the DNC is using Kagan's hearings to rally the troops again, launching a "Kagan for Justice Action Center" website through its Organizing for America wing.

A look at last night's results in PA House contests:

PA 03: It was messy, and expensive, but car dealer Mike Kelly (R) appears to have emerged from the GOP primary to face Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D) in the fall. He led businessman Paul Huber (R) by 1K votes (28%-26%), with all of the ballots counted. Kelly aired ads accusing Huber of shipping jobs to Poland, and for being a Dem until recently, while Huber attacked Kelly for supporting tax increases as a city councilor.

Huber spent the most on TV, but both largely self-funded their campaigns. Kelly will need to restock for the general, but luckily for him, Dahlkemper's sitting on a solid, but not spectacular $792K warchest. This is a winnable race for GOPers, but the socially conservative Dahlkemper's going to be a tough out. Her vote for the health care bill, though, should give Kelly a good place to start.

PA 04: Ex-U.S. Atty Mary Beth Buchanan (R) entered the race as a highly touted candidate, but she went out with a whimper, as atty Keith Rothfus (R) shocked her with a 67%-33% win. Rothfus outraised Buchanan, and Rep. Jason Altmire (D) even weighed in to say Rothfus was outworking Buchanan.

In the end, Rothfus proved to be the much better candidate. Rothfus argued he'd be the better challenger against Altmire because he wouldn't bring Buchanan's baggage to the race. Buchanan had led several high-profile prosecutions in her time as U.S. Atty, including a failed case against popular ex-Allegheny Co. Coroner Cyril Wecht. In the end, all of those negatives weighed against her, and she lost by a stunning margin. Rothfus starts out as the underdog against the battle-tested Altmire, but this GOP-leaning seat will always give GOPers a chance.

PA 06: Iraq war veteran Manan Trivedi (D) inched out a win over former newspaper editorialist Doug Pike, salvaging a 672-vote margin out of 42K votes cast. Pike had raised early money, but national Dems saw Trivedi as the stronger candidate for a general election battle with Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) in this exurban Philadelphia district. Trivedi raised a decent amount of money -- about $450K since filing for office in Sept. -- but while Gerlach has faced difficult re-election races before, running in a pro-GOP year could be enough to save him this time around.

KY saw a blowout and squeaker in its Senate primaries on Tuesday night.

In the race for the GOP Senate nomination, with nearly all precincts reporting, ophthalmologist and Tea Party-backed Rand Paul (R), son of WH'08 hopeful Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX), defeated Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) by more than 80K votes, 58.8% to 35.4%.

In the Dem race, AG Jack Conway (D) nipped LG Daniel Mongiardo (D), by fewer than 4K votes, 43.9% to 43.2%.

The sweep of Paul's victory was impressive and lends credibility to the Tea Party movement. Paul carried 109 of the state's 120 counties, winning Jefferson, home to the state's largest metropolitan are, Louisville; college counties like Fayette and Warren, home to the University of Kentucky and Bowling Green State University; and even Boone County, Grayson's home turf in Cincinnati suburbs.

The inability of Grayson to carry Boone, Campbell and Kenton, GOP establishment enclaves across the Ohio River from Cincinnati, was a telling sign of his inability to rally party loyalists and perhaps an indicator the strength of the insurgent sentiment in the Bluegrass state.

Indeed, according to the KY Sec/State's website, that area along with other relatively urban counties like Jefferson, Fayette (Lexington), Boyd (Ashland) and McCracken (Paducah) had low turnouts. GOP primary turnout in rural counties was higher.

Conway's victory was much more circumscribed, keyed by a strong showing in Jefferson, the suburban and exurban counties that ring Louisville, the Bluegrass region of the state -- Conway and his family own race horses -- and the college counties of Fayette and Warren; he was endorsed by MoveOn.org.

Mongiardo, who campaigned as a populist and tried to portray Conway as an elitist, ran much stronger in rural counties in Eastern and Western Kentucky. As the votes were counted on Tuesday night, Conway jumped out to a healthy early lead when results came in faster from the more urban counties, but that advantage was whittled away as the evening wore on as the rural counties reported.

Update: KY LG Daniel Mongiardo (D) announced this afternoon he will not seek a re-canvass, calling the post-primary period a time for healing.

"Upon further reflection, I realize that despite their being less than a 1% difference in the vote, a re-canvass is extremely unlikely to change the outcome. It would only delay the healing process that needs to take place," Mongiardo said in a statement.

Original post:

KY LG Daniel Mongiardo (D) wants his state's elections officials to check their math after losing a nail-biting election last night.

In a statement released by his campaign today, Mongiardo again congratulates AG Jack Conway (D), who came out on top, according to the first count. But, a Mongiardo spokesman said, he will request a re-canvass of the state's election results.

"In a race this close, [Mongiardo] owes it to his supporters across the Commonwealth who gave so much of their time, energy and money to our cause, to make sure the results are accurate. With only 3,542 votes between the candidates, let's be sure the votes have been accurately reported," campaign spokesman Kim Gevedan said in a statement.

Conway leads with 228,531 votes over Mongiardo's 224,989 votes, according to the Sec/State's website -- a margin of just 0.68%.

Mongiardo's team reiterated they aren't optimistic about finding errors in the count, but they want to check just to make sure. KY law allows the Sec/State to notify county clerks they must re-tabulate results of absentee ballots and machine counts from each precinct.

"While it is unlikely there are sufficient errors to reverse the outcome, this re-canvassing process is quick and simple and will give the nominee of our party the ability to move forward into the fall against Rand Paul," Gevedan said.

Then again, the state's elections division may not want to undertake a re-canvass; it would just remind the boss, Sec/State Trey Grayson (R), of his big loss to Paul in the GOP primary. With 119 of 120 counties reporting in, Paul led Grayson by a 59%-35% margin.

A round-up of action in House contests in AR and KY decided last night:

The final matchups in 2 competitive open seat House races will be decided in June 8 runoffs. GOPers are set -- the party's 2 favorites, agriculture broadcaster Rick Crawford (R) in AR-01 and ex-U.S. Atty Tim Griffin (R) in AR-02, both won solid primary victories. But the Dem fields were more crowded, and therefore no candidates won the 50% to avoid a runoff.

AR 01: In the race to replace Rep. Marion Berry (D), Dems will chose between ex-state Sen. Tim Wooldridge (D) and Berry ex-CoS Chad Causey (D). Wooldridge's first-place showing was not unexpected, but a late blitz of Causey TV ads -- which prominently featured Berry -- propelled him into second place.

AR 02: In retiring Rep. Vic Snyder's (D) district, state Sen. Joyce Elliott (D) won a surprise first place over state House Speaker Robbie Wills (D), 40%-28%. Elliott will run to Wills' left in the runoff, and in a low-turnout affair, she may have the juice to get over 50%. GOPers like their chances with Griffin against either candidate, but they surely would like to run against a candidate like Elliott who takes more liberal positions on issues.

Full results from last night's statewide races (** denotes AP-called winner; [r] denotes runoff):

AR SEN -- GOP                  AR SEN -- DEM
Boozman**      74,009 (53%)    Lincoln [r]   145,207 (45%)
Holt           24,272 (17%)    Halter  [r]   138,660 (43%)
Baker          15,848 (11%)    Morrison       42,349 (13%)
Reynolds        7,054 (5%)
Coleman         6,885 (5%)
Hendren         5,501 (4%)
Alexander       4,274 (3%)
Ramey           1,860 (1%)

KY SEN -- GOP                  KY SEN -- DEM
Paul**        206,159 (59%)    Conway**      226,773 (44%)
Grayson       124,238 (35%)    Mongiardo     221,269 (43%)
Johnson         7,825 (2%)     Price          28,172 (5%)
Stephenson      6,861 (2%)     Buckmaster     20,318 (4%)
Scribner        2,853 (1%)     Sweeney        17,641 (3%)
Martin          2,847 (1%)
OR GOV -- GOP                  OR GOV -- DEM
Dudley**      104,478 (39%)    Kitzhaber**   216,652 (66%)
Alley          84,729 (32%)    Bradbury       98,057 (30%)
Lim            38,719 (15%)    Obrist         14,445 (4%)
Sizemore       20,688 (8%)
Curtright      10,465 (4%)
Watkins         2,679 (1%)
Colvin          1,092 (0%)
Karr            1,009 (0%)
Forthan           675 (0%)
PA SEN -- GOP                  PA SEN -- DEM
Toomey**      667,069 (81%)    Sestak**      564,444 (54%)
Luksik        151,776 (19%)    Specter       481,566 (46%)
PA GOV -- DEM                  PA GOV -- GOP
Onorato**     459,703 (45%)    Corbett**     584,847 (69%)
Wagner        246,923 (24%)    Rohrer        266,383 (31%)
Williams      183,080 (18%)
Hoeffel       129,389 (13%)

Check back later this morning for our look at competitive House contests.

"World News" led with the 5/18 primaries. "Evening News" led with new videos from the Gulf oil spill. "Nightly News" led with oil continuing to gush into the Gulf.

Ophthalmologist Rand Paul's (R) and Rep. Joe Sestak's (D) primary victories, in KY and PA, respectively, dominated TV coverage last night.

CNN's Yellin caught up with Paul following his victory 5/18 p.m.

Paul, on whether the GOP "establishment" should "be worried": "I mean it in a friendly way when I say, Washington, here we come. I don't mean it in a bellicose way. ... There is a movement, though. And I think they're aware of it. And I want to make the Republican Party believable as fiscal conservatives again. And that's what I want. And I think a lot of them want that, too. They may just need a little guidance."

Paul, on whether it's the people that "need to change, or just the priorities": "Some of both. Some of both" ("AC 360," CNN, 5/18).

After the jump, more on Paul and Sestak, and speculation about Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell's political future.

Good Wednesday morning. We had a great primary night. Thanks to the kind folks at Sirius/XM Radio for hosting us. Let's do it again some time. Anyone busy June 8, when CA and NV host primaries and AR holds a runoff?

Here's another special edition of the Starting Lineup -- we'll stick with the baseball theme and name three up, and three down, from yesterday's elections:

THREE UP

THE DCCC: Call them the gang that CAN shoot straight. Dems have won every special House election since May '08, and that streak continued last night with Rep.-elect Mark Critz's (D) win in PA 12. Critz won by a wider than expected margin in a district the GOP had a good claim to, raising questions about the size and scope of the wave that is supposed to sweep the minority into power this fall.

Dems haven't won a lot of elections lately -- the litany of VA, NJ and MA is oft-repeated by GOPers looking out for big wins -- but in House races, they're 3 for 3 in competitive districts since Pres. Obama won office, including wins at inopportune times: They won NY-20 at the height of the stimulus debate. They won NY-23 amid a bad health care climate. And now they've won PA-12 when polls suggested they shouldn't. All the usual caveats about special elections notwithstanding, Dems know how to win a House seat, which should have incumbents breathing just a bit easier this morning.

BIG LABOR: It should be unheard of that a major part of the Dem coalition stands up to a WH of the same party, but labor did it last night -- and they won. In AR, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) took 45% in her bid for re-election, forcing her into a runoff with LG Bill Halter (D), who took a better-than-expected 43%. Labor's big investment, aided by the progressive netroots' contributions to Halter, took a campaign that began just 10 weeks ago and forced a runoff with someone, in Lincoln, who had 12 years to get ready.

The mood of the electorate is, primarily, anti-establishment, and rank-and-file Dems may be every bit as engaged as GOPers, voters proved on Tuesday night.

Starting with PA, Rep. Joe Sestak (D) did not simply defeat the party-switching, 5-term Sen. Arlen Specter (D). He also toppled the chosen candidate of Pres. Obama, VP Biden, Gov. Ed Rendell (D), Sen. Bob Casey (D), '04 PRES nominee Sen. John Kerry (D-MA), the PA Dem state party and even the SEIU.

In other words, Specter had all the establishment and institutional support he could gain. That suggests Sestak operated from the complete opposite spectrum, drawing his support entirely from netroot liberals and rank-and-file PA Dems.

During his victory speech, he used rhetoric similar to that of Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) after he won the MA special election over AG Martha Coakley (D) earlier this year.

Sestak called his victory "a win for the people, over the establishment, over the status quo, even over Washington, D.C."

"I will never forget that it was the people of Pennsylvania that made it happen tonight," he added.

In KY, ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R), backed by the Tea Party, walloped Sec/State Trey Grayson (R). Outgoing Sen. Jim Bunning (R) backed Paul, while the vast majority of the KY GOP establishment stood with Grayson. Paul's victory was similar to Sestak's in PA: he went up against the establishment and won. And his rhetoric sounded as anti-establishment as Sestak's.

Ex-Murtha staffer Mark Critz (D) defied the national environment by winning a relatively comfortable 53-45% victory over businessman Tim Burns (R) in the special election to replace the late-Rep. John Murtha (D-PA). His victory is sure -- at least temporarily -- to put a wet blanket on GOP euphoria heading into the midterms.

DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen immediately trumpeted the news. "This was the only race in the country today where a Democrat faced off against a Republican and the results are clear. Mark Critz focused on creating jobs for middle class families, while Republicans practiced the politics of fear and distortion," Van Hollen said in a statement. "For all of their bluster about building a national wave this year, including RNC Chairman Michael Steele's guarantee of victory for Tim Burns, Republican policies were once again rejected when it came time to face the voters."

For much of this cycle, the DCCC has assured their Members that they were prepared for the troubling elections that lie ahead, and touted their wins in difficult special elections in NY-20 and NY-23. Critz's win will surely boost Dem confidence in the face of nat'l polls that still show GOPers leading on the Cong. generic ballot.

In TV ads, Burns and the NRCC attempted to turn this race a referendum on Pres. Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi. And indeed, polling showed those two to be extremely unpopular in the CD (where despite Dems' 2-1 registration advantage, John McCain was able to squeak out a victory in '08).

As ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) emerged victorious in the KY SEN GOP primary earlier this evening, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) used the occasion to deliver a harsh message to establishment GOPers, as he lauded Paul's victory.

"His message of less spending and less debt is resonating with voters across Kentucky," said DeMint of Paul. "The Washington establishment threw everything they had at him and yet he prevailed. Rand's victory is part of an American awakening that is taking place across the country as people embrace the principles of freedom that are the backbone of our country."

DeMint had earlier endorsed Paul, joining ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY). Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell had sided with Sec/State Trey Grayson (R).

Conservative icon Richard Viguerie characterized Paul's victory as a disavowal of McConnell and the GOP leadership in Washington.

"The elections results are a massive repudiation of McConnell and the Republican congressional leadership, which aggressively supported Grayson," Viguerie said in a statement. "The new conservatives who are being elected this year are different from the establishment types who went along with the big government policies of George W. Bush, Tom DeLay, Bill Frist, and others."

Meanwhile, Paul called his win a "tremendous mandate" for the Tea Party.

Updated with Viguerie's comments.

Polls have closed in AR, where both parties face political fights for Sen. Blanche Lincoln's (D) seat. Candidates have to reach 50% to avoid a runoff contest.

On the Dem side, Lincoln faces LG Bill Halter (D) and businessman D.C. Morrison (D).

On the GOP side, Rep. John Boozman (R) faces ex-state Sen. Jim Holt (R), state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R), businessman Conrad Reynolds (R), businessman Curtis Coleman (R), state Senate Min. Leader Kim Hendren (R), Univ. of AR housing dir. Randy Alexander (R), and businessman Fred Ramey (R), Results, with 38%-Dem and 38%-GOP reporting:

DEM SEN PRIMARY
Lincoln         71,524 (44%)
Halter          68,822 (42%)
Morrison        23,026 (14%)

GOP SEN PRIMARY
Boozman         26,568 (50%)
Holt             8,613 (16%)
Baker            6,992 (13%)
Reynolds         3,293 (6%)
Coleman          3,216 (6%)
Hendren          2,146 (4%)
Alexander        1,739 (3%)
Ramey              631 (1%)

*** Final update: Every top race in PA has been called. We'll update final results in tomorrow's Starting Lineup ***

Polls have closed in PA, and Dems face competitive GOV and SEN races. But the race both parties are watching is PA 12, where businessman Tim Burns (R) faces ex-Murtha aide Mark Critz and Demo Agoris (L) in a special election.

*** Burns has conceded the race to Mark Critz ****

Results, with 420 of 597 precincts reporting:

PA 12 SPECIAL ELECTION
Critz         48,482 (53%)
Burns         40,669 (45%)
Agoris         1,950 (2%)

In the SEN contest, Sen. Arlen Specter (D) faces Rep. Joe Sestak, while on the GOP side, ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R) faces conservative activist Peg Luksik (R).

*** AP has called the GOP race for Pat Toomey ***

*** AP has called the Dem race for Joe Sestak ***

Results, with 7347 of 9233 precincts reporting:

DEM SEN PRIMARY
Sestak       436,726 (53%)
Specter      384,772 (46%)

GOP SEN PRIMARY
Toomey       441,699 (79%)
Luksik       114,533 (21%)

In the GOV contest, Gov. Ed Rendell (D) is term-limited. Allegheny Co. Exec. Dan Onorato (D) faces Montgomery Co. Commis. Joe Hoeffel (D), Auditor Jack Wagner (D) and state Sen. Anthony Williams (D). AG Tom Corbett (R) faces state Rep. Sam Rohrer (R).

*** AP has called the GOP race for Tom Corbett ***

*** AP has called the Dem race for Dan Onorato ***

Results, with 7279 of 9233 precincts reporting:

DEM GOV PRIMARY
Onorato      359,470 (45%)
Wagner       202,958 (26%)
Williams     150,118 (19%)
Hoeffel       81,829 (10%)

GOP GOV PRIMARY
Corbett      412,006 (70%)
Rohrer       175,626 (30%)

*** Final update: Both races have been called. We'll update final results in tomorrow's Starting Lineup ***

Polls have closed in KY, where both parties face fights over nominations to replace retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R).

On the Dem side: AG Jack Conway, LG Daniel Mongiardo, law school student Darlene Price, farmer Maurice Sweeney (D) and physician James Buckmaster (D).

On the GOP side: Sec/State Trey Grayson, ophthalmologist Rand Paul, ex-superintendent of public instruction John Stephenson, veteran Gurley Martin and activist Jon Scribner.

*** AP has called the GOP race for Rand Paul ***

*** AP has called the Dem race for Jack Conway ***

Results, with 3511 of 3575 precincts reporting:

DEM NOMINATION
Conway        224,756 (44%)
Mongiardo     217,768 (43%)
Price          27,719 (5%)
Buckmaster     20,117 (4%)
Sweeney        17,478 (3%)

Results, with 3504 of 3575 precincts reporting:

GOP NOMINATION
Paul          203,896 (59%) (winner)
Grayson       122,476 (35%)
Johnson         7,586 (2%)
Stephenson      6,705 (2%)
Martin          2,783 (1%)
Scribner        2,652 (1%)

Polls in KY (6 pm), PA (8 pm) and AR (8:30) have closed.

XX Denotes AP-declared Winner; (R) denotes Runoff

PA 03 -- Businessman Paul Huber (R), ex-Butler City Councilman Mike Kelly (R), insurance agent Steve Fisher (R), activist Ed Franz (R), Tea Party activist Clayton Grabb (R) and physician Martha Moore (R) are vying for the right to take on Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D).

Kelly             28% (winner)
Huber             26
Grabb             14
Fisher            12
Franz             11
Moore              9

PA 04 -- Ex-US Atty Mary Beth Buchanan (R) faces ex-DHS official Keith Rothfus (R) for the right to take on Rep. Jason Altmire (D).

Rothfus           67%  (winner)
Buchanan          33

PA 06 -- Rep. Jim Gerlach (R) faces electrician Pat Sellers (R). On the Dem side, Iraq war veteran Manan Trivedi (D) is running against retired newspaper editorial writer Doug Pike (D).

Gerlach           80% (w)   Trivedi         53%
Sellers           20        Pike            47

PA 08 -- Ex-Rep. Mike Fitzpatrick (R) faces attorney Gloria Carlineo (R), financial planner Ira Hoffman (R) and businessman James Jones (R). The winner will take on Rep. Patrick Murphy (D).

Fitzpatrick       77%
Carlineo          15
Hoffman            5
Jones              3

PA 10 -- Snyder Co. Commis. Malcolm Derk (R) faces chiropractor David Madeira (R) and ex-US Atty Tom Marino (R) in the race against Rep. Chris Carney (D).

Marino            41%
Madeira           31
Derk              28

PA 11 -- Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D) faces Lackawanna Co. Commis. Corey O'Brien (D) and Tea Party activist Brian Kelly (D).

Kanjorski         49%  (winner)
O'Brien           34
Kelly             17

PA 12 -- In the regularly scheduled primary, ex-Murtha aide Mark Critz (D) faces businessman Ryan Bucchianeri (D) and attorney Ron Mackell (D). Businessman Tim Burns (R) faces '08 nominee Bill Russell (R).

Critz             71% (w)  Burns            57%  (w)
Bucchianeri       21       Russell          43
Mackell            8

PA 17 -- Rep. Tim Holden (D) faces ex-state Board of Education Member Sheila Dow Ford (D) in the Dem primary. State Sen. Dave Argall (R), businessman Josh First (R), pastor Allen Griffith (R) and accountant Frank Ryan (R) are running for the GOP nod.

Holden            66% (w)  Argall           32%
Ford              34       Ryan             31
                           First            24
                           Griffith         13

PA 19 -- Rep. Todd Platts (R) faces businessman Mike Smeltzer (R) in a GOP primary.

Platts            70%
Smeltzer          30

AR 01 -- State Sen. Steve Bryles (D), Rep. Berry ex-CoS Chad Causey (D), state Rep. David Cook (D), surgeon Terry Green, businessman Ben Ponder (D) and prosecutor/ex-state Sen. Tim Wooldridge (D) are running in the Dem primary. Farm broadcaster Rick Crawford (R) and ex-House aide Princella Smith (R) are running on the GOP side.

Wooldridge        38% (R)  Crawford        71%  (winner)
Causey            26  (R)  Smith           29
Cook              14
Bryles            12
Greene             6
Ponder             5

AR 02 -- Rep. Snyder ex-CoS David Boling (D), state Sen. Joyce Elliott (D), university admin. Patrick Kennedy (D), state House Speaker Robbie Wills (D) and attorney John Adams (D) are running on the Dem side. GOPers include ex-US Atty Tim Griffin (R) and restauranteur Scott Wallace (R).

Elliott           35%      Griffin         62%
Wills             32       Wallace         38
Boling            19
Adams              7
Kennedy            7

AR 03 -- State Sen. Cecile Bledsoe (R), ex-state Sen. Gunner DeLay (R), attorney Steve Lowry (R), Gravette City Councilman Kurt Maddox (R), ex-state Rep. Doug Matayo (R), Boone Co. Judge Mike Moore (R), retired USAF Gen. Bernard Skoch (R) and Rogers Mayor Steve Womack (R) are running for Rep. John Boozman's (R) seat.

Womack            31% (R)
DeLay             15
Bledsoe           14
Skoch             11
Moore              9
Maddox             9
Matayo             8
Lowry              3

KY-03 -- Pilot Todd Lally (R) defeated Pizza Hut restaurateur Jeff Reetz (R), financial adviser Larry Hausman (R) and Brooks Wicker (R). He'll take on Rep. John Yarmuth (D).

Lally              52%  (winner)
Hausman            25
Reetz              17
Wicker              6

420 of 512 precincts reporting (82%)

KY 06 -- Attorney Andy Barr (R) beat back challenges from businessman Perry Barnes (R), real estate developer John Kemper (R), funeral director Matt Lockett (R), businessman George Pendergrass and ex-Energy Coal Resources CEO Mike Templeman (R). He'll face Rep. Ben Chandler (D).

Barr              65%  (winner)
Templeman         10
Lockett            7
Pendergrass        7
Kemper	           7
Barnes	           4

Ex-state Sen. Dino Rossi (R), a possible NRSC recruit to take on Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA), can't catch a break these days. The latest: He's a featured guest next week at an event teaching real estate investors how they can profit off of foreclosures.

An invitation for the May 25 event hosted by Steven Marshall, a partner in the Homeowner Conference, begins thusly: "With the current financial and real estate meltdown an opportunity has been created like never before in history." So Rossi, touted both as the '08 GOV nominee and principal of Coast Equity Partners, and a panel of other investors are teaming up for a dinner at the Bellevue Maggiano's to teach real estate investors some tricks about the market.

Among the top 8 lessons participants will learn include: "The 7 critical mistakes you do NOT want to make when buying foreclosures"; "How to consistently earn over a 50% ROI [return on investment] per year buying and selling foreclosures"; and "The 9 secrets behind Washington's most successful foreclosure investors."

More information about the dinner is here

Here's an upside to smooth it over for Rossi: the event benefits the Ronald McDonald House Charities, according to the invite.

Update: A GOPer familiar with Rossi's situation said, "Dino is often in demand as a public speaker and has an existing contract with Cobalt Mortgage to give opening remarks at seminars they hold for Washington State businessmen and women. The context of his remarks focus on sharing his story about how he got his start in the commercial real estate business. They have nothing to do with foreclosures and in fact, Dino has had no involvement with foreclosure investments throughout his real estate career."

NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh added of the potential race, "If Patty Murray spent half the time focusing on the Washington economy as she apparently does worrying about a Dino Rossi candidacy perhaps her state's unemployment wouldn't be standing at 9.2%. It's remarkable that as she oversees this smear campaign she apparently has no problem similarly disparaging the work of Washington businesses and investors."

In Northern VA on Saturday, '08 nominee Keith Fimian (R) attacked fellow VA-11 candidate/Fairfax Co. supervisor Pat Herrity (R) over electability during a Tea Party debate that otherwise showcased few differences between 2 candidates vying for the right to face Rep. Gerry Connolly (D) this fall.

The GOPers focused almost entirely on finances and the proper role of the federal government. While the 2 did not present much difference in terms of policy other than who-said-what accusations lobbed by Fimian, both candidates used hyperbole and populism to underscore their points. Fimian struck a populist tone discussing foreign policy, saying, "This is where you begin to wonder, at least I begin to wonder, just who exactly these people are" referring to the executive branch.

"I'm inclined to give one the benefit of the doubt, but I've got to tell you, I'm beginning to wonder what is the ultimate goal here," said Fimian. "Now, that said, the Tea Party movement has taken a lot of flack for spitting on people and stuff that I haven't seen. Let me tell you, (in) my experience... they're respectful, they're well-informed, they're well-educated and they have not been involved politically in the past. This is a great thing for our country folks; keep up what you are doing."

Herrity played to the crowd's ideological leanings by mentioning his appearance on Fox News multiple times, reminding the crowd that he shares similar principles with the Tea Party about limited government, and gave them a few red-meat lines too.

"Every regulation that's passed, we lose a little bit of our liberty, a little bit of our freedom," he said.

Both candidates condemned the health care reform law. Fimian said, "I did not think that (it) was possible" to pass "Obamacare" while Herrity earned applause for directly saying, " We need to repeal Obamacare." If that doesn't work, "we need to defund it," he added. "That is a power this Congress will have."

The WA State Labor Council isn't making Dems' lives any easier, choosing to endorse an underdog candidate in the race for retiring Rep. Brian Baird's (D) open House seat and virtually guaranteeing a contested primary matchup.

The state board gave state Sen. Craig Pridemore (D) 69% of the vote, just more than the two-thirds required for an official endorsement. In choosing Pridemore, the labor council bypassed ex-state Rep. Denny Heck (D), who has Baird's backing along with tacit support from DC Dems.

Pridemore has banked much of his campaign on hopes of a labor nod. Without their support, Pridemore may not have stuck with the race through the primary; already, one candidate, state Rep. Deb Wallace (D), has dropped out of the race.

"Craig has shown a consistent commitment to job creation and help for struggling families, a big part of the reason he won the endorsement," said Christian Sinderman, Pridemore's top consultant.

Though Heck has much more money than Pridemore -- he ended March with $532K in the bank, thanks to about $250K in loans, versus just $51K for Pridemore -- the labor nod means Dems could face a competitive Aug. 17 primary.

"I think it keeps him in the mix," said Dem strategist John Wyble, of Pridemore's labor nod. "He'll pick up some labor dollars and get some troops on the ground in the August primary."

And, Wyble pointed out, Pridemore already has an electoral base. His Vancouver-area Senate district is near the heart of the House district's population center. Heck represented the Vancouver area too, but he left office in the late '80s. Afterward, he served as chief of staff to ex-Gov. Booth Gardner (D) and founded TVW, the Evergreen State's equivalent of C-SPAN.

Here's everything you ever wanted to know about today's OR primaries. And don't forget to check out our primary preview from last week:

Candidates: Ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) wants his old job back, but first has to go through '02 SEN nominee/ex-Sec/State Bill Bradbury (D) to get through the Dem primary.

Ex-Portland Trail Blazer Chris Dudley (R), '08 Treas. nominee/businessman Allen Alley (R), '90 candidate/'98 SEN nominee/businessman/ex-state Sen. John Lim (R), and '98 nominee/anti-tax activist Bill Sizemore (R) are the GOP candidates.

Poll times: OR votes by mail-in ballots, which are counted on election day. All ballots must be received at the elections office by 8:00 p.m.. Postmarks do not count.

Ads: Nodding to his NBA past, Dudley launched a series of ads with the tagline "Comeback." Alley released three ads, including one touting his newspaper endorsements. Kitzhaber highlighted his experience as a doctor and as governor in his ads, while Bradbury broke out of the box with his first ad, Time To Get OR Rolling.

After the jump, key endorsers and newspaper picks, plus a quick primer on the race against Sen. Ron Wyden (D).

Three Dem candidates and eight GOPers are set to face the primary electorate 5/18. Don't forget to check out our primary preview from last week.

The Candidates:
Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D), LG Bill Halter (D), Farm loan originator DC Morrison (D). Rep. John Boozman (R-03), state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R), '04 nominee/'06 LG nominee/ex-state Sen. Jim Holt (R), state Senate Min. Leader Kim Hendren (R), Safe Foods CEO Curtis Coleman (R), businessman Fred Ramey (R) and Ret. Army Col./ind. security contractor Conrad Reynolds (R).

Polls open at 7:30 a.m. and close at 7:30 p.m.

As of 4 p.m. 5/17, Dems dominated early and absentee voting, according to the AR Sec/State office. Out of the 114K early votes cast, 80K early votes belonged to the Dems and 33K were from GOPers. Out of 7.4K absentee ballots, Dems cast 5.3K and GOPers 1.5K.

The leading candidate in each primary can avoid a runoff by claiming at least 50% of the vote. If no candidate reaches 50%, then the top two candidates face each other in a runoff 6/8.

Endorsements: Lincoln is endorsed by Pres. Obama, Bill Clinton, Sen. Mark Pryor (D), Reps. Mike Ross (D-04) and Marion Berry (D-01), Morning News of Northwest Arkansas, Southwest Times Record, Pine Bluff Commercial and Fort Smith Times Record.

Halter received backing from the AFL-CIO, SEIU, Moveon.org, 21st Century Democrats, League of Conservation Voters, Arkansas Times, Arkansas Leader

Morrison scored an endorsement from the City Wire of Ft. Smith.

Endorsements have been light on the GOP side with the most significant ones for Boozman coming from the Morning News and Arkansas Democrat Gazette. The AR Libertarians back Holt. Ex-Rep. Asa Hutchinson (R) supports Hendren.

After the jump, a look at TV ads each candidate has run.

Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R) is not one to waste a good scandal, and now he's trying to raise money off new revelations about CT AG Dick Blumenthal's (D) military career.

In an email to supporters, Simmons manager Jim Barnett cited a New York Times report that Blumenthal had exaggerated his military service throughout his political career.

"This is now a dramatically different Senate race than it was 24 hours ago. As we always expected, Blumenthal's aura of inevitability is likely to disappear on contact with reality -- making this the race that could deliver a Republican Senate majority," Barnett wrote. "If you want a Senator who will never dishonor the people of Connecticut, Rob Simmons is your man."

While Blumenthal did not serve in Vietnam, Simmons did, earning 2 Bronze Stars as an Army intelligence officer.

But it wasn't Simmons' campaign that broke the news; instead, it was his primary rival, ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R), who has poured millions into her own race. McMahon's team boasted its opposition research had led to the revelations in an effort that could convince GOP voters she is more electable in the fall.

Simmons, a top NRSC recruit, has seen his window of opportunity slowly close as McMahon taps her vast fortune. Endorsements are beginning to pile up for McMahon; yesterday, she announced support from CT RNC members Pat Longo and John Frey, the latest members of the GOP establishment to join her bid.

Either GOPer will be able to use Blumenthal's past statements against him this fall, but Simmons now has the chance to convince voters he would be able to deliver the fatal blow, given his past military service. McMahon is trying to claim credit for helping break the story, and Dems are worried she's sitting on more opposition research, but the scandal may be Simmons' best shot at making a surprise comeback against McMahon.

Here's what you need to know about PA SEN tonight, and don't forget to check out our primary preview from last week:

Sen. Arlen Specter (D) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D-07) are locked in a tight race for the Democratic nod. On the GOP side, '04 candidate/ex-Club for Growth pres./ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R) is expected to easily beat '90 GOV candidate/'94/'98 Const. Party GOV nominee Margaret "Peg" Luksik (R).

Poll Times: 7:00 AM to 8:00 PM

Insiders Say It's Sestak By An Inch

We asked nine well-respected, keen political watchers to weigh in with their predictions for today's election. The results:

8 picked Sestak to win

1 picked Specter to win

After all the predicted percentages for each candidate were averaged together, the group predicted a 51.2%-48.3% win for Sestak.

"Arlen Specter would have had the edge in the game, but as of Monday, there was a 60 percent chance of rain in Philadelphia. Water falls from the sky, putting a dent in turnout by black voters in the city who would overwhelmingly back Specter, and in the end, the weather ends his political career," one observer said.

Added another: "Specter ekes out a win with the better GOTV operation and help from his friends in Philadelphia and labor in the western part of the state."

The insiders: GOP consultant Carl Forti, Politico's David Catanese, America Votes exec. dir. Greg Speed, NBC Chief WH Correspondent/pol. dir. Chuck Todd, Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy, pa2010.com's Dan Hirschhorn, Politico's Josh Kraushaar, Politico's Charlie Mahtesian, and NBC dep. pol. dir. Mark Murray.

For ads each candidate has run, a list of key endorsements and a look at the PA GOV race, click past the jump.

A rundown of the things you have to know about tonight's KY SEN primaries (and be sure to check out our primary preview from last week):

Candidates: AG Jack Conway (D) and '04 nominee/LG Dan Mongiardo (D) are in a "statistical dead heat" with Mongiardo having a slight lead in the polls. Other candidates on the Dem side include physician James Buckmaster (D), author/ex-Border Patrol agent Darlene Price (D),and cattle farmer/ex-Louisville NAACP pres. Maurice Sweeney (D).

On the GOP side, Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) is trailing in the polls against ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R). Other GOP candidates include WW II vet Gurley Martin (R), retiree Jon Scribner (R), and ex-Supt. of Public Instr. John Stephenson (R).

Poll Times: Open from 6 AM to 6 PM local time, meaning some until 7 PM Eastern time.

Insiders: We asked eight well-respected, keen political watchers to weigh in with their predictions for today's primaries. They are Cook Political Report's Jennifer Duffy, GOP consultant Carl Forti, America Votes exec. dir. Greg Speed, NBC Chief WH Correspondent/pol. dir. Chuck Todd, NBC News Deputy Pol. Dir. Mark Murray, Politico nat'l politics editor Charles Mahtesian, Politico's David Catanese and Politico's Josh Kraushaar.

The results:

• All picked Paul to win the GOP nod over Grayson, averaging 53%-43%
• Seven picked Conway to eke out a win over Mongiardo (one picked Mongiardo), averaging 49.3%-46.9% for Conway.

Polling, ads and key endorsements after the jump.

As GOPers see strong hopes of taking back the majority this year, the number of those who remember the last time the GOP took back the speaker's gavel is dwindling.

A total of 56 GOPers won over Dem-held seats in '94. Now, thanks to defeats, retirements and scandal, the number of survivors from the '94 election will drop below 10 once the 112th Congress is sworn in next Jan.

Just 14 members first elected 16 years ago made it this far. But Reps. John Shadegg (R-AZ) and George Radanovich (R-CA) are retiring; Rep. Todd Tiahrt (R-KS) is running for a SEN seat; Rep. Zach Wamp (R-TN) wants to be governor; and Rep. Mark Souder (R-IN) resigned his office today in the wake of an affair with a staffer.

The class of '94 has had a difficult tenure. Of the 56 new members, 19 eventually lost re-election bids, while several others lost bids for higher office. Scandal plagued Reps. Souder and Bob Ney (R-OH), along with SC Gov. Mark Sanford (R) and Sen. John Ensign (R-NV), both of whom were first elected to the House that year.

But others have thrived. Sens. Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), Sam Brownback (R-KS), Roger Wicker (R-MS), Richard Burr (R-NC), Tom Coburn (R-OK) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC) all kicked off their Congressional careers in the GOP landslide.

Assuming each member wins re-election in Nov. -- and none of the remaining veterans of the '94 election have serious challenges this year -- there will be only 10 of 56 left in the 112th Congress. That includes Reps. Rodney Frelinghuysen (R-NJ), Doc Hastings (R-WA), Walter Jones (R-NC), Tom Latham (R-IA), Steven LaTourette (R-OH), Frank LoBiondo (R-NJ), Sue Myrick (R-NC), Ed Whitfield (R-KY) and Mac Thornberry (R-TX), all of whom are seeking their respective ninth terms.

Rep. Mark Souder (R-IN) is expected to resign on Tuesday amid allegations that he had an affair with a female aide, top GOP officials tell Hotline OnCall.

Souder has a press conference scheduled at his Ft. Wayne headquarters at 10 a.m. The GOP officials said they expect him to announce he will step down. Politico first reported news of the alleged affair.

First elected in '94, Souder has a largely conservative record that fits his northeast IN district. He is married and has 3 children, according to the Almanac of American Politics. Still, Souder has been a target; he won his May 4 primary for a ninth term with just 48% of the vote.

As the GOP searches for a replacement contender, and if the rules of the '08 IN-07 special election are followed, a party caucus would nominate candidates for each party. The GOP would be favored to hold this GOP-leaning seat; Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) took 56% here in '08, and Pres. Bush ran away with 68% in '04.

And an early frontrunner for the GOP nod would be car dealer Bob Thomas (R), who spent $250K of his own money in a primary bid to unseat Souder earlier this month. Souder defeated Thomas, 48-34%, but Thomas' many TV ads surely bought him plenty of name ID. But in such a friendly seat, GOP legislators are also likely to look at a bid.

A likely Dem nominee would be '06 nominee/ret. physician Thomas Hayhurst (D), whom Dems nominated earlier this month to challenge Souder. He's in a strong position financially, as he has a healthy $233K in the bank.

Update: In a statement to the Ft. Wayne Journal Gazette, Souder said he "sinned against God, my wife and my family by having a mutual relationship with a part-time member of my staff." Souder added: "In the poisonous environment of Washington, D.C., any personal failing is seized upon, often twisted, for political gain. I am resigning rather than to put my family through that painful, drawn-out process."

CT AG Richard Blumenthal (D) was Dems' bright spot -- the sure-thing guarantee of a victory in a Dem-leaning state that might otherwise have gone to the GOP. But with revelations that Blumenthal has misled people over, or outright lied about, his service in Vietnam, a state that once was safely in the Dem column is now in play.

Blumenthal has consistently allowed misperceptions about his service in the Marine Reserves to influence public perceptions. And statements he's made on the campaign trail, detailed in a front-pager in the New York Times today, clearly suggest Blumenthal served in Vietnam.

In fact, he didn't, winning draft deferrals from '65 to '70 in order to study at Harvard and in England, work at the Washington Post and serve in the Nixon WH.

The revelations appear to be the result of a long research project undertaken by ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R), who is leading the GOP primary field for the right to take on Blumenthal in Nov. McMahon has spent millions on her campaign, but so far her poll numbers lag far behind Blumenthal's. Now, she has the opportunity to change that.

"The Blumenthal Bombshell comes at the end of more than 2 months of deep, persistent research by Republican Linda McMahon's Senate campaign," GOP blogger Kevin Rennie, a former state senator, wrote yesterday. "This is what comes of $16 million, a crack opposition research operation and an opponent who, in the words of the president Blumenthal worked for on a draft deferment, who [sic] gave them the sword."

"World News" led with the oil spill. "Evening News" led with oil spill. "Nightly News" led with the oil spill.

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) played "Hardball" 5/17 p.m.

Sestak, on whether "age and seniority" are an "issue of this campaign": "Age is definitely not an issue. And Arlen Specter lost his seniority down in Congress when he switched parties. The issue is this. He`s been there for 30 years, advancing a Republican agenda. I respect the man, but I disagree with his political approach where he`s willing to switch a party in order to keep his job."

More Sestak: "It`s time for a real change down there in Washington, where you`re willing to do what`s right and not worry about your electoral prospects. That`s what this election`s about."

Sestak, on whether Specter would "switch" and vote with the GOP again if reelected: "I think Arlen Specter is a literally flight risk if he were ever to win this primary. And worse, he will lose to Congressman Toomey. ... And even more importantly, I really believe in Democratic principles out of conviction. And yet, like when John F. Kennedy once said, sometimes the party asks too much, I was willing to stand up for what`s needed for working families and those who want to work, when the party establishment in Washington, DC, was wrong. And that`s what`s going prevail in the end" (MSNBC, 5/17).

After the jump, an interview with ex-NV GOP Chair Sue Lowden (R).

Good Tuesday morning, and welcome to semi-super Tuesday. Primary voters head to the polls today in PA, AR, OR and KY.

Here's a special edition of the Starting Lineup, examining those who have the most to gain and lose from today's primary elections:

THE DCCC AND NRCC: The race to replace the late Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) concludes today, when businessman Tim Burns (R) and Mark Critz (D) clash in a special election. Both parties have invested heavily in the contest; the DCCC has spent $980K, while the NRCC is up to $959K in expenditures. And this is the contest that really matters today.

For Dems, a loss sends the signal that even heavy voter registration advantages aren't going to be enough to save their party. Dems outnumber GOPers by a 2-1 margin in the district, and contested primary elections elsewhere on the ballot will help drive Dem turnout. If Burns pulls off what can be considered an upset, it will show Dems everywhere are vulnerable -- and perhaps irrevocably so.

Meanwhile, pressure is building on the NRCC. It has been since May 3, '08, that the party has won a House special election, not counting runoffs in states like LA and GA. If the GOP can't win in PA 12, the only district in the country that switched its allegiances from Dem to GOP between the WH'04 and WH'08 contests, it will remind political types that GOPers haven't quite figured out this whole special election thing, casting doubts on the party's ability to win control in Nov.

THE ESTABLISHMENT: Sens. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) face primary electorates today, and the stark reality is that both incumbents could join Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) on the bench as lame-duck senators. They're in trouble for their own individual reasons, but it's a further warning that the power of incumbency is actually a drawback in this anti-DC climate.

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) held a fundraiser in Manhattan last week and outperformed Pres. Obama's own cash grab a day later on behalf of the DCCC, another sign of trouble brewing for Dems this cycle in all corners of the country.

Romney headlined an event at the Waldorf-Astoria Hotel in New York City on May 12 that raised $1.5M for his Free and Strong America PAC.

By contrast, Obama's appearance at the St. Regis Hotel on May 13 raked in a lesser $1.3 million for the DCCC.

For Romney, the event was the biggest of the year, according to his aides. And in many ways it was another implicit indication that his is the nascent GOP WH campaign to beat: Some of the event's sponsors were previously major boosters to Sen. John McCain's WH'08 bid, including Woody Johnson, owner of the New York Jets, and Lew Eisenberg, an investment banker who formerly chaired the New York-New Jersey Port Authority and the RNC finance committee.

A DCCC spokesman pointed out that whenever the committee raises money with Obama, PAC donations are not permitted. In addition, the spokesman noted that House Democrats have been working on tough financial regulatory reform.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) is reshuffling his campaign, moving his top 2 campaign aides out of his organization in recognition of a tough fight he faces in his state's Aug. 24 primary.

McCain manager Shiree Verdone and deputy manager Mike Hellon will no longer be with the campaign. Instead, they are being moved over to the Yuma Co. GOP, a federal campaign account operated by a top McCain ally.

Instead, McCain will rely on several long-time advisors and aides, including WH'08 campaign manager Rick Davis, powerful DC lobbyist Charlie Black and Mark Salter, often described as McCain's alter-ego and the co-author of his books. A source tells Hotline OnCall that Mark Buse, McCain's Senate chief of staff, recently left his post and will be managing day-to-day operations until the team hires a permanent manager.

McCain spokesperson Brian Rogers brushed off the staff changes, saying they had been planned all along.

"As part of the campaign's plan for this election year, Shiree and Mike are transitioning over to work with party committees to create a ticket-wide Republican Victory operation. At Victory, they'll work to raise money and organize for the statewide general election, which is vitally important to help Republican candidates win up and down the ballot all across Arizona," Rogers said. "Sen. McCain is very grateful for all that Shiree and Mike have done to launch the re-election campaign and establish it on a firm footing, and looks forward to working closely with them for Victory in November."

But Verdone and Hellon aren't working through the statewide Victory program yet.

McCain and Hellon, a former AZ GOP chairman, have feuded with AZ GOP chair Randy Pullen, with existing ill will exacerbated by ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth's (R) bid to challenge McCain for the seat. A top McCain ally set up the Yuma Co. GOP with a federal account in order to bypass the state party, if the need arose. But sources at the RNC have told Hotline OnCall that Victory money will be routed through the state party instead of through Yuma Co.

The moves come as Hayworth gains ground against McCain, according to public polls. The most recent -- a Research 2000 poll for the liberal DailyKos website -- showed McCain leading Hayworth by 12 points, down from 15 points at the end of March, among a sample of 400 GOP primary voters. That sample had a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

In a year in which incumbent senators are in danger of losing their party's nominations, McCain has already shown himself to be extra cautious, advertising against Hayworth long before Hayworth got in the race. McCain's reliance on a more professional, more experienced set of campaign staffers indicates he is still taking pains to be cautious.

Pres. Obama is viewed favorably by most voters, but that doesn't mean they're going to take his advice when he makes a political endorsement. And to the top strategist at the NRSC, that should worry incumbent Dems.

Obama has been publicly involved in just a few races during his time in office, but in those contests he has a mixed record at best. Obama helped fundraise for Reps. Scott Murphy (D-NY) and Bill Owens (D-NY), who both won special elections, but he also made high-profile appearances for NJ Gov. Jon Corzine (D), VA state Sen. Creigh Deeds (D) and MA AG Martha Coakley, all of whom lost their races by wider than expected margins.

In advance of Tuesday's primary elections, the admin has stuck its neck out again, and for 2 contenders who might not still be standing on Wednesday. Obama fundraised for Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) in the fall, and VP Joe Biden has campaigned for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) in Little Rock. Both face tough fights for the Dem nominations in their respective states.

In a political briefing memo today, NRSC executive director Rob Jesmer writes Dem incumbents should be worried about the lack of an impact Obama has had on his party's general election prospects, as indicated by Obama's inefficiency in primaries and his refusal to campaign for Specter or Lincoln in their races' waning days.

"The fact that the President of the United States and the most popular member of the Democratic Party sees serious political risk in publicly campaigning for a Democratic Senator, in a Democratic primary, and in a key swing state, speaks volumes," Jesmer writes.

More than a dozen GOP incumbents voted exactly as the Club for Growth wanted them to, according to the conservative group's annual scorecard released today.

All told, 9 House members, including Reps. Paul Broun (R-GA), John Linder (R-GA), Jeff Flake (R-AZ), Tom Price (R-GA), Doug Lamborn (R-CO), Virginia Foxx (R-NC), Jeb Hensarling (R-TX), Tom McClintock (R-CA) and John Shadegg (R-AZ) won 100% ratings from the conservative pro-business organization, ratings based on votes taken during '09.

Sens. Jeff Sessions (R-AL), John McCain (R-AZ), Saxby Chambliss (R-GA), Tom Coburn (R-OK), Jim Inhofe (R-OK) and Jim DeMint (R-SC) voted perfectly with the Club in the upper chamber.

McCain's move to the top of the Club's rankings is a dramatic departure from previous years. In '06, the last time McCain took enough Club-scored votes to be ranked, he pulled just a 76% score. DeMint, on the other hand, is the only member of Congress to get perfect scores over the last 5 years.

Few Dems made positive impressions on the Club. Only Reps. Bobby Bright (D-AL), Gene Taylor (D-MS) and Walt Minnick (D-ID) scored higher than 50%, according to the Club's rankings. A total of 77 House Dems and 4 members of the Senate voted against the Club for Growth at every opportunity.

Rep. Mike Castle (R-DE) scored the lowest -- just 43% -- of any GOPer. Castle is running for Sen. Ted Kaufman's (D-DE) open seat this year, a race in which he is the clear front-runner.

In '08, George W. Bush's top economics experts warned that if the government didn't bail out key banks, the economy could fail. What they didn't say is that anyone who voted for the Troubled Asset Relief Program -- regardless of party -- would face the prospect of losing their jobs over the vote.

Now, with primary season in full swing, TARP has become a cudgel challengers are using to beat on their rivals across the nation. And the issue has already proven effective: UT GOP delegates ousted Sen. Bob Bennett (R) based, at least in part, on his vote for the massive bill.

The bill passed with bipartisan support, and bipartisan opposition; 91 House GOPers voted for it, while 63 Dems voted against. In the Senate, 34 GOPers voted for the bill, while just 15 voted against.

That means angry voters in both parties have a chance to take out their TARP frustrations this primary season. MI AG Mike Cox (R), running in a competitive GOP primary to succeed Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D), is running an ad focused on Rep. Pete Hoekstra's (R) vote for the bill. AR LG Bill Halter (D) has his own ad attacking Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) for supporting TARP.

"Blanche Lincoln took a million dollars from Wall Street, then voted for the $700 billion bailout," a narrator says in Halter's latest ad. Halter then promises to "never forget who I'm working for."

Aside from Lincoln, GOPers who voted for the bill have faced the most criticism, and endured the harshest consequences. Sen. Kay Bailey Hutchison (R-TX) lost her bid to oust Gov. Rick Perry (R) this year as Perry's campaign derisively tagged her "Kay Bailout Hutchison." Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), who faces ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) in a primary, has walked back his support for the bill, claiming he believed the money would have been used to prevent a collapse of the housing market, rather than to stabilize finanical institutions like Citigroup, Bank of America and JPMorgan Chase.

Even Sen. Chuck Grassley (R-IA) has had to answer to conservative critics for backing the bill. Rep. Bob Inglis (R-SC), running for re-election, has been hit for his TARP vote as he faces a strong GOP challenger, while Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-PA), chairman of the Capital Markets subcommittee on the House Financial Services Committee, has been accused of helping bail out Wall Street by a stronger-than-expected rival.

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D) are headed to a photo finish in a primary that has tightened over the final weeks, putting at risk Specter's 30-year Senate career, according to the final polls out of the Keystone State.

A Quinnipiac Univ. study, conducted May 12-16 among 951 likely Dem primary voters, held a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. A Muhlenberg College/Allentown Morning Call poll conducted May 12-15 surveyed 430 likely Dem primary voters, for a margin of error of +/- 5%. Specter and Sestak were tested against each other.

PRIMARY ELECTION MATCHUPS
           Quinn  MCall
Sestak      42%    44%
Specter     41     44

Sestak has made up significant ground in both polls. As recently as the first week of April, Specter led Sestak by a 53%-32% margin in a Quinnipiac poll; in a May 2 tracking poll, Muhlenberg College found Specter up 49%-40%.

Sestak's comeback has been fueled by Dem voters skeptical that Specter -- a former GOPer who switched parties a year ago -- is truly one of them. Sestak released an ad on May 5 that featured George W. Bush endorsing Specter's '04 re-election bid, reminding Dems of Specter's long history with the GOP.

On Monday, PA Gov. Ed Rendell (D), a Specter backer, said the ad had been effective, and he refused to predict that Specter would win tomorrow.

"You tell me what the weather is and I'll tell you whether I can guarantee it," Rendell told MSNBC's "Morning Joe" on Monday. "It's a very close race and Arlen needs a very good turnout from the southeast, and particularly from the Philadelphia area."

Good Monday morning. Book your trip to Europe now. The Euro fell to a 4-year low this morning, trading at just over $1.23 per. We hear Greece is lovely this time of year.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics this week:

SEN. ARLEN SPECTER: As he faces a second consecutive nail-biting primary, Specter is dead even with Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) in public polls. That's troubling news for an incumbent, as undecided voters tend to break for a challenger. But Specter has 2 things going for him that Sestak won't have in advance of tomorrow's primary: His career and his infrastructure.

Specter has served in the Senate for 30 years, and the vast majority of his paid media campaign has focused on his ability to win battles for his state and bring home the bacon. That's a time-tested tactic -- even Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell touted his clout during his '08 re-election bid. But it hasn't always worked. Just ask Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT), who played up his own seniority during his ill-fated bid for renomination.

Specter's second advantage was on display this weekend, after both he and Sestak appeared on CNN's "State of the Union." On the program, Sestak refused to commit to supporting the Dem nominee, assuming he didn't pull off the win. Both Specter's campaign and the state Dem Party blasted Sestak, a stark reminder that Specter has the party leadership, and its attendent infrastructure of precinct committee officers around the state. Those officials could be crucial in driving turnout in Specter's favor.

Still, after beating ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R) by a grand total of 17K votes out of more than 1M cast in the '04 GOP primary, Specter is set for a close finish on Tuesday. If voters are buying the clout argument, and if the Dem establishment can turn on the machine for a former GOPer, he might just squeeze through.

MARK CRITZ: Though 2 senators -- Specter and Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) -- are at risk tomorrow, former House aide Critz is running the race that will have the most impact on DC's psyche. GOPers have not won a special House election since May 3, '08, and perhaps their best chance of stealing a Dem-held seat comes with the race to replace the late Rep. John Murtha (D-PA). Critz, Murtha's old employee, is running neck and neck with businessman Tim Burns (R).

Just a week after his stunning loss at the UT GOP convention, Sen. Bob Bennett says his loss came from voters who see even their own incumbents as part of the problem in DC.

"In this anger, people do not differentiate between their representative in Congress and, quote, 'the federal government,'" Bennett said on CNN's State of the Union on Sunday. "It isn't just the Congress they're mad at. It's the federal government. And the federal government is seen as this overpowering entity, accountable to no one, completely out of control, that somehow we have to fight against, and the best way we can fight against it is remove everybody who's connected with it, regardless, conservative, liberal, black, white, male, female -- it doesn't matter; get rid of them all."

Bennett came under fire from the conservative Club for Growth, and from convention delegates in his own state, for voting in favor of TARP and for working with Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) to try and find a bipartisan health care compromise.

He acknowledged attacks from GOPers upset with his bipartisan inclinations and said the message to GOPers was clear: Stop working across the aisle.

"I was attacked because I was willing to sit down with Democrats," Bennett said. "You know, I probably would continue doing what I did, because I thought it was the right thing to do. It's the way I am."

Bennett has not said whether he will run as an independent candidate. The deadline for filing as an independent has passed, meaning Bennett would have to run a long-shot write-in bid.

"I have made a very firm decision not to make any decisions for the time being," Bennett told CNN on Sunday.

Voter sentiment is clearly against incumbents, as recently defeated Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) and Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV) can attest. What's more, several incumbents are on the chopping block in Tuesday's elections.

Polls bear that voter anger out as well. A new AP-AfG poll shows just 36% of voters want to re-elect their representative, while 53% want someone else. Those numbers are scary for any incumbent.

And while just one House Member has lost his re-nomination bid, several others have felt the electorate's anger. It's still early in the primary season -- just 7 states have held primaries -- but the Cook Political Report's David Wasserman notes that 16 incumbents have taken less than 70% in their contests. That's a huge number, and a warning sign for any incumbent -- both Dem and GOPer.

It will be difficult to top the 19 House incumbents who lost their primaries in '92, but it doesn't take too much imagination to contemplate more than a handful of Members losing their renomination bids this cycle.

But while polls show the GOP ready to make huge gains, Dems argue that this anti-incumbent sentiment will break both ways, and may mitigate the advantage the GOP seems to have.

To back that up, Dems released a poll late last week showing Rep. Joe Wilson (R-SC) -- of "you lie" fame -- leading '08 nominee Rob Miller (D) 49%-34%. The survey was conducted for Miller's campaign between May 3-6, and surveyed 501 likely voters.

Dems argue that trouble lurks for Wilson. In the poll, conducted by Anzalone-Liszt, 61% of voters who feel that the best way to change Congress is to throw out members of both parties who "aren't listening to the people." Meanwhile, just 31% of respondents in the Dem poll agreed that the best way to change Congress is to elect GOPers who will "stand up" to Pres. Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi.

Dems believe Wilson's early lead is built mainly on his huge name ID advantage. In the poll, 91% of voters knew who he was, while just 34% knew who Miller is, despite his competitive '08 race.

Ex-Rep. Tom Campbell (R) is cutting back on TV advertising, switching strategies as some opponents wonder whether Campbell's surprisingly strong campaign is running low on funds.

Campbell will not be on TV this coming week. And he has cut his ad buys for the final 2 weeks of the campaign significantly, according to sources who watch campaign ad spending; data shows Campbell has purchased $286K in ads over the last 2 weeks, less than the $393K he had previously reserved.

Instead, Campbell's campaign will send an oversized mailer to 1.1M voters this week, according to his campaign.

The decision to pull ads off TV means ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) will continue outspending Campbell on the air. Fiorina has spent $2.2M on TV ads, 4 times the amount Campbell has spent, according to data collected by several ad buyers with interests in the race.

But it's not clear that Fiorina's TV advantage is going to have much of a difference: Campbell leads every recent public poll. Fiorina has raised much more money than Campbell, and she announced last week she would put an additional $1.1M of her own money in the race. Still, her advertising advantage so far has not helped her make up her polling gap.

Fiorina also has to contend with 2 other GOPers vastly outspending her on TV; ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) and Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R), running to replace Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R), have each contributed huge amounts to their own campaigns. Whitman has given her CA GOV bid $64M so far, while Poizner has contributed at least $19M. Both are blanketing the airwaves, shutting out other candidates in the process.

The winner of the GOP primary, on June 8, will start the general election campaign facing a deep deficit against Sen. Barbara Boxer (D). Boxer had $8.7M in the bank as of the March 31 filing deadline, according to her latest FEC report.

National Journal's Ron Brownstein writes:

If the economy produces jobs over the next eight months at the same pace as it did over the past four months, the nation will have created more jobs in 2010 alone than it did over the entire eight years of George W. Bush's presidency.

That comparison comes with many footnotes and asterisks. But it shows how the economic debate between the parties could look very different over time -- perhaps by November, more likely by 2012. More important, the comparison underscores the urgency of repairing an American job-creation machine that was sputtering long before the 2008 financial meltdown.

First, the numbers: From February 2001, Bush's first full month in office, through January 2009, his last, total U.S. nonfarm employment grew from 132.5 million to 133.5 million, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. That's an increase, obviously, of just 1 million. From January through April of this year, the economy created 573,000 jobs. Over a full year, that projects to 1.72 million jobs. Job-creation numbers are notoriously volatile, so the actual result could run above or below that estimate. But Obama administration economists are increasingly optimistic that job growth this year will exceed expectations. Few of them will be surprised if more jobs are created in 2010 than over Bush's two terms.

Now the principal footnote: To compare job growth in 2010 with Bush's record ignores the nearly 4 million jobs lost in Obama's first year, during the freefall that began in Bush's final months. That's like ignoring a meteor strike. Over time, voters are likely to judge Obama by his degree of success in eliminating that deficit and reducing unemployment. Still, if the economy this year produces more than 1 million jobs -- or, conceivably, more than 2 million -- that will give Democrats more ammunition to argue that their agenda has started to turn the tide.

...

Although the immediate jobs picture is clearly brightening, lasting surges in U.S. job growth usually have followed technological breakthroughs (the personal computer, the Internet) or expanded access to education (mass primary schooling in the late 19th century and increased access to college after World War II). Obama is betting heavily on both fronts, with big increases in federal investment in education and new technologies, such as alternative energy. But the engine that will propel the next great burst of American job creation has yet to be discovered.

Read the whole column here.

We learned there are some primaries on Tuesday. Okay, if you read The Hotline, you've known to watch out for the pending primaries in KY, PA, AR and OR for months.

Here's what intrigued us this week:

-- We're done underestimating both Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) and ophthalmologist/KY SEN candidate Rand Paul. Sestak took a lot of heat in the press for waiting so long to engage Sen. Arlen Specter (D). But once he did it was devastating. He may be something of a loose cannon but he's kept it together very well against a very, very tough foe. An admiral knows to wait until you see the white's of their eyes.

-- Paul, on the other hand, has his father's famous name and its attendant access to money, but defeating Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell's hand picked guy takes more than just good luck and timing. He's also been very disciplined on the trail. Will he be this year's Al Franken? Remember how Norm Coleman and NRSC thought that Franken would be easy to dismiss as just a joker? How'd that work out?

-- Ex-NV GOP chair Sue Lowden (R) isn't the front-runner anymore in NV SEN. Suddenly it's all about ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) -- at least until people find out more about her beyond the Tea Party endorsement, or she makes a gaffe now that people are actually watching.

-- Might Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) be a blessing in disguise for Dems? Short answer: Of course not. But giving Elena Kagan a pass on the Harvard/military recruiters issue is the latest evidence, following votes for a jobs bill, that Brown can give Dems some veneer of bipartisanship. Then again, if he has higher aspirations, which of this week's actions -- saying nice things about Kagan or campaigning for PA-12 contender Tim Burns (R) -- will conservatives remember? We're betting the former.

-- With Rep. Alan Mollohan's (D-WV) loss on Tuesday, we learned that House incumbents that face sufficiently funded challengers will occasionally lose in this type of environment. But we'll find out next week -- should Rep. Paul Kanjorski (D-PA) lose his primary, despite holding a 26-1 advantage in CoH over Lackawanna Co. Commis. Corey O'Brien (D) -- if we're truly in an anti-incumbent cycle.

Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) will officially launch his bid to replace retiring Sen. Evan Bayh (D) Saturday, as he is expected to become the official Dem nominee in the SEN race, following a meeting of the IN Dem State Committee.

After the meeting, Ellsworth is slated to "visit the Indiana Law Enforcement Academy in Plainfield," according to a press release from his campaign.

"It's fitting for Brad to kick-off the general election campaign at the place where his career began. The priorities and skills he learned there and used everyday as a Sheriff -- protecting communities, resolving disputes, putting the public's interests above his own -- are exactly why he will be a great U.S. Senator for Indiana," said Ellsworth spokesperson Liz Farrar.

Following his GOP primary victory last week, ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R) kicked off his general election campaign in Ellsworth's hometown of Evansville.

Before he was unceremoniously forced out of his own re-election bid, the race for Sen. Jim Bunning's (R-KY) seat was already good. With Bunning out of the race and 4 candidates vying for 2 spots on the Nov. ballot, the race has become one of the most unpredictable and volatile in the country.

There is some semblance of order on the GOP side, though it's not the kind top party strategists wanted. Fueled by the Tea Party movement and by anti-establishment sentiment, Ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) leads Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) by wide margins in public polls.

Grayson has public support from Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell, Rep. Hal Rogers (R), ex-VP Dick Cheney and most of the state's GOP establishment. But in recent days, Paul has picked up his own support from conservative luminaries like Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), James Dobson and ex-Amb. Cathy Bailey, a top GOP fundraiser.

Grayson has attacked Paul as outside the mainstream, especially on issues of national security. Paul has fought back, characterizing Grayson as a Pres. Obama-supporting big spender, as much a part of the problem in DC as anything.

GOP leaders were willing to be so public in their support for Grayson because they believe he cannot beat the Dem nominee in the fall. But who that nominee is has yet to be determined, thanks to a far more unstable race that has no clear front-runner.

LG Daniel Mongiardo (D), who came within a few thousand votes of pulling off a stunning upset against Bunning in '04, has led in public polls most of the way. But he hasn't had as much money as AG Jack Conway (D), who has vastly outspent Mongiardo on TV so far. Recent polls have shown the race closing.

The DE State Education Association will announce their endorsement later today of New Castle Co. Exec. Chris Coons (D) over Rep. Mike Castle (R) -- a notable shift for an organization that has backed Castle in recent elections.

"We have already seen people that previously supported the Congressman financially donate to Chris," Coons campaign spokesman Dave Hoffman said. "With this endorsement, we are seeing political support gravitate our way as well."

In '06 and '08, DSEA endorsed Castle for public office, characterizing him as a defender of public education and a "bridge-building" GOPer. But recently, the conservative lawmaker has displeased the education group by voting no on the stimulus bill and health care reform.

DE was one of 2 states to win the first round of Race to the Top, a federal grant competition authorized by the Recovery Act.

"This endorsement is another illustration of the support I have seen across the state during this campaign," Coons said. "The DSEA and all Delawareans want someone to bring fresh leadership, innovative ideas, and a new way of doing business to Washington."

"Chris Coons has experience dealing with the tough decisions around budget cuts and he has proven that fiscal constraint can be laced with contemporary management and compassion," DSEA president Diane Donahue is planning to say at the news conference later today. "We need someone that we do not have to move to our position because Chris Coons is already there walking the road beside us."

Still, Coons has quite a ways to go to catch up to Castle financially.
So far this cycle, Castle has raised nearly $2.2M whereas Coons raked in about $651K.

Here are the scheduled guests for the Sunday public affairs shows and other weekend programs:

SUNDAY

Meet the Press hosts Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY). The roundtable features Newsweek's Jonathan Alter, Wall Street Journal's Peggy Noonan, GOP strategist Mike Murphy and Dem strategist Bob Shrum.

Face the Nation hosts Sen. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA), Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), CBS' Jan Crawford and New York Times' Jeff Zeleny.

This Week hosts Sen. Patrick Leahy (D-VT) and Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL).

Fox News Sunday hosts ex-FLOTUS Laura Bush and ex-Speaker Newt Gingrich (R). The roundtable features FNC's Brit Hume, Fortune's Nina Easton, Weekly Standard's Stephen Hayes and NPR's Juan Williams.

State of the Union hosts Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), Rep. Joe Joe Sestak (D-PA) and Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT).

See other weekend shows after the jump.

Iraq war vet Vaughn Ward (R) is one of the most highly touted contenders GOPers have been able to recruit, but a competitive primary is sapping his strength even before he gets a clean shot at Rep. Walt Minnick (D-ID).

Ward, who ran Sen. John McCain's NV campaign, was among the NRCC's inaugural batch of "Young Guns." And he's raised good money -- pre-primary FEC reports show Ward has pulled in $575K through last week.

But it's Ward's first primary election, meaning he has to introduce himself to his district. Ward has already spent $429K of that money, including $215K in the month of April alone.

Ward's leading rival is state Rep. Raul Labrador (R), a 2-term Boise area legislator. Labrador helped oust the state GOP chairman last year, and he's feuded with Gov. Butch Otter (R) over the state's budget. Labrador hasn't had a lot of success raising money; as of May 5, he had raised just $173K and had only $35K on hand.

But Labrador has enough of a platform that Ward has been forced to spend money on TV. Ward shelled out $110K on media production and advertising in April, FEC reports show.

The competitive primary is not going to help GOPers win back a district that leans their way. Stretching from ID's southern border with NV through the Panhandle to Canada, McCain won 62% of the district's vote in '08.

But Minnick hasn't voted like an easily-definable Dem. He opposed the stimulus package, cap and trade legislation and health care reform, leaving GOPers to rely on the argument that he's simply a vote for Speaker Nancy Pelosi. Minnick will have plenty of time to fight back against that charge; when Ward or Labrador emerges from the primary on May 25, they will have a pittance of the amount Minnick has in the bank. Through the end of the pre-primary period, Minnick had $935K in the bank, a huge amount in the relatively inexpensive district.

Minnick's is a district GOPers may have to win if they hope to take back the House. At least that was the case in '94; that year, 2-term incumbent Larry LaRocco (D) lost his seat to Helen Chenoweth-Hage (R) as the GOP took the Speaker's gavel for the first time in 40 years.

Conventional wisdom has suggested Minnick is one of the top targets in the country. But with a conservative voting record and a hefty bank account, Minnick won't prove easy to defeat -- especially if the eventual GOP nominee starts a general election nearly broke.

Being a governor is one of the hardest jobs in the country, so why would anyone want to sully their reputation with a second stint after leaving office the first time with high approval ratings?

That's exactly what ex-OR Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) is trying to do. Kitzhaber served 2 terms as governor between '95 and '03, and now he's one of 5 former governors -- including IA's Terry Branstad (R), CA's Jerry Brown (D), GA's Roy Barnes and MD's Bob Ehrlich (R) -- running to get their old jobs back.

Kitzhaber is the heavy favorite in Tuesday's OR GOV primary, leading ex-Sec/State Bill Bradbury (D) by a wide margin, according to public polls, even though Bradbury has support from ex-Gov. Barbara Roberts (D), Kitzhaber's predecessor, and ex-VT Gov. Howard Dean.

Kitzhaber would face the winner of a competitive GOP primary between former Portland Trailblazer Chris Dudley (R), businessman Allen Alley and ex-state Sen. John Lim (R). Dudley has far outspent his rivals, spending 3 times what Alley has on TV so far, and he looks like the favorite heading into Tuesday's primaries.

Dudley will face an uphill battle in deep blue OR if he does win the primary. GOPers hold only one of the state's 5 House seats, and Pres. Obama won the state by a wide margin. The state hasn't elected a GOP GOV since Victor Atiyeh (R) won re-election in '82.

Meanwhile, GOPers have a chance to pick up a House seat in OR, but the Lake Oswego-based district held by Rep. Kurt Schrader (D) has eluded them for a decade. Schrader will likely face state Rep. Scott Bruun (R) in the fall. None of OR's other incumbents face any particularly strong challenges.

In choosing Tampa, FL, as the site of their '12 nominating convention, the RNC has selected a city that is among the most overdue for a major hurricane, and a time that is just weeks from the most statistically likely day on which a storm could occur.

Hurricane season runs from June 1-Nov. 30, but Aug.-Oct. is the peak of the season in the Atlantic basin. Historically, the date with the greatest frequency of hurricanes is roughly Sept. 10.

According to the National Hurricane Center in Miami, a hurricane passes within 65 nautical miles (about 75 miles) of Tampa every 6 years. For major hurricanes -- those with maximum sustained winds of 115 mph or greater -- it is one every 21 years.

Tampa has received a number of glancing blows, but Stacy Stewart, senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center, says it's only a matter of time before a major hurricane strikes the city.

"The Tampa Bay area, unfortunately, is one of those well-overdue places," Stewart said. "They're due for a hurricane. They're due for a major hurricane."

While it's too early to say for sure how active '12 season will be, Stewart says that because an El Niño pattern is diminishing across the Pacific, hurricane frequency over the next 3 seasons is likely to be "at least average, possibly above average." El Niño is an Pacific oceanic phenomenon that alters weather patterns, usually resulting in fewer Atlantic hurricanes.

"History," Stewart said, "is certainly not on their side right now."

There is one mitigating factor for GOPers: While late Aug. is an active time for hurricanes and tropical storms, that isn't necessarily the case along FL's Gulf Coast. The most likely time for a landfalling hurricane along FL's Gulf Coast is later in the season, in late Sept. and Oct., according to Stewart. But history is replete with examples of hurricanes affecting the Tampa area around the time the convo is scheduled to be held.

While Sens. Arlen Specter (D-PA) and Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) fight for their political lives, perhaps the most consequential election coming Tuesday will be between 2 political neophytes in southwestern PA.

There, ex-Congressional aide Mark Critz (D) and businessman Tim Burns (R) are battling over the late Rep. John Murtha's (D) Johnstown-based seat. Both parties can lay legitimate claim to the district; Dems enjoy a huge voter registration advantage, but the economic and demographic makeup of the district favor GOPers.

Dem and some recent public polling puts Critz in the lead, but GOPers say the race is still a toss-up. Burns, the NRCC and outside groups have all aired TV ads linking Critz to Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Pres. Obama, both of whom are viewed negatively in the CD. They've also attacked Critz on ethics.

Critz and Dems, meanwhile, have hammered Burns constantly for what they say are his positions in support of a national sales tax and for tax breaks for companies that ship jobs overseas. Burns vehemently denies both claims. But if Critz wins, these 2 messages will largely be responsible for Burns' loss -- fairly or unfairly.

But even if Burns comes out on top, he faces the very real risk of becoming a lame duck before he's even sworn in. If polling is correct, Burns is in some danger of losing the primary for a full term, which is held the same day as the special election.

Burns has been, well, burning up the airwaves with TV ads, while '08 nominee William Russell (R) has kept a low TV profile. But Russell still has legions of followers from his insurgent '08 race, and his name ID among GOP faithful is rather high. A Russell upset would be extremely embarrassing to Burns. Critz, meanwhile, faces some opposition, most notably from Navy vet. Ryan Bucchianeri (D), but he's strongly favored in that contest.

After the jump, check out the other hot PA primaries to be decided on Tuesday.

House GOP Conference chair Mike Pence will urge gun rights activists to make a strong push to help his party take back the House while abandoning Dems who have helped curb gun control legislation favored by liberals in Congress.

In a speech he will give today in Charlotte, at the NRA's annual convention, Pence said he will encourage the NRA to back his party rather than pro-gun Dems.

"The NRA has a history of supporting candidates in both political parties who support gun rights, and I respect that, but I do believe we have a historic opportunity to elect a conservative majority to Capitol Hill," Pence told Hotline OnCall in an interview yesterday. "I'm going to be challenging people at the NRA to seize that opportunity, to get behind men and women across this country who are committed to constitutional principles."

The NRA endorsed most of the GOP Conference during the '08 election, but they also have a long history of supporting Dems. The group backed 52 House Dem incumbents in '08.

Pence, who has made several high-profile appearances at conservative events across the country, will also voice his opposition to Supreme Court nominee Elena Kagan, thanks to reports yesterday that Kagan did not support repealing a DC gun ban. And as some in conservative circles think Pence is contemplating a WH'12 bid, he will stoke the flames by laying out the outline of a platform.

A year after Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) flipped parties to save his political skin, he faces the suddenly very real prospect of losing his seat anyway.

Though polls had long showed Specter cruising to victory over Rep. Joe Sestak (D), Sestak's late ad campaign has reminded Dem primary voters of one thing: Specter used to be a GOPer. Now, the polling gap has closed, and surveys show Sestak has the momentum on his side.

Specter has the establishment on his side. Pres. Obama campaigned for him, and is featured in Specter's closing argument. VP Joe Biden was scheduled to campaign with Specter today, but he's staying in Wilmington after his son's medical emergency. Despite their support, regular Dem voters are used to voting against Specter, and it could be a heavy lift to convince them to back him in a Dem primary.

What's more, Specter's ad campaign has focused largely on his clout in DC, and on the goodies he brings back to the Keystone State. But that argument hasn't been an effective closer this year, when the incumbent label is more scarlet letter than badge of honor; Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT), a long-time appropriator, has already gone down to defeat, and Sen. Blanche Lincoln's (D-AR) position atop the Senate Agriculture Committee hasn't closed the door for her. Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV), the third-ranking member of the House Appropriations Committee, also lost his seat in a primary this week.

The winner will face ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA), whose strong candidacy on the GOP side forced Specter to take his chances with Dems.

As Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) fights for her political life, polling indicates she may have to face a runoff election against LG Bill Halter (D), the latest indication that incumbents and establishment favorites across the country are in trouble.

Lincoln has focused on her insider credentials -- the fact that she's the first AR senator to chair the Senate Agriculture Committee is a favored line. And she's been endorsed by Dem heavyweights, including Pres. Obama; Bill Clinton and VP Joe Biden have each held fundraisers on her behalf, too.

Halter, meanwhile, has benefited from millions in ads spent against Lincoln by labor and progressive groups unhappy with her opposition to EFCA and her centrism on health care and other issues. He's spent his own money touting his time in the Clinton admin, and playing up his work to create scholarships through a lottery fund.

The latest polls show Lincoln holding a lead, but if she doesn't get 50% she'll be forced into a runoff. A Mason-Dixon survey from last week shows Lincoln up 44%-32%; a Research 2000 poll, conducted for the Halter-backing DailyKos website, pegs Lincoln's lead at 46%-37%. A third candidate attracts just under 10%.

The GOP field may be headed to a runoff vote as well. Both recent surveys show Rep. John Boozman (R) leading the GOP field, with '04 nominee Jim Holt (R) finishing a distant second. Boozman hovers just under the 50% mark, while Holt is in the high-teens, followed closely by state Sen. Gilbert Baker (R) a few points back.

Baker has attacked Boozman for his vote in favor of TARP legislation, while Boozman, the front-runner from the moment he joined the race, has stayed mostly positive in his own paid media.

Meanwhile, 3 of the 4 incumbent members of the House in AR -- including Boozman -- are abandoning their seats, giving the GOP serious shots at making gains. The open seat races are a jumble, like the race to fill Rep. Marion Berry's (D) seat.

Good Friday morning. How is it that the Baltimore Orioles can be such a terrible ballclub, and yet take 2 out of 3 from your editor's favorite team? Oh, it's because the Seattle Mariners are lousy too.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter in politics this weekend:

PRES. OBAMA: Obama meets with police officers today, then patrols more meetings with Cabinet officials to discuss the ongoing oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. Obama has a press availability scheduled for late this morning, where he will address the spill and his admin's efforts to contain the damage.

But already, the damage may be much more than initially expected. Instead of hemmorhaging 5k barrels of oil a day, experts told NPR the rate of spillage could be as high as 70K barrels a day -- making the disaster far worse than the Exxon Valdez disaster in AK in '89 already.

BP is set to complete its so-called "Top Hat" containment system as early as today, according to an administration report released last night. But the admin is clearly worried about public perceptions of the spill, and the government's response. They've done everything possible to convince Gulf Coast residents that this is not another Hurricane Katrina, when the feds were slow to react. And they've had measured success; an AP-GfK poll released today shows 42% of Americans approve of Obama's actions in responding to the leak, while 33% disapprove.

The one thing the admin, and BP, hasn't been able to do: Actually stop the spill.

NRA MEMBERS: In '94, gun rights advocates' response to a crime bill that banned assault weapons helped end several Congressional careers early. An annual convention this weekend in Charlotte, NC, will bring together top officials at the NRA to plot strategy for this year's midterm elections, and to hear from some possible WH'12 contenders making the trip.

The 2 parties are badly split on whether there should be a Miranda exception for accused terrorists, according to the new National Journal Congressional Insiders poll. In the wake of the recent failed Times Square car-bomb attack, most GOPers want to restrict rights to legal counsel for individuals accused in such cases. But Dems mostly oppose proposals to revise current law.

DoJ officials have said that they pursued more extensive questioning of the accused car-bomber Faisal Shahzad before notifying him of his Miranda rights than they did, for example, following the failed "underwear bombing" attack on a Northwest flight heading from Amsterdam to Detroit last Christmas Day.

But 74% of congressional GOPers in this week's poll advocated additional actions to clarify that law-enforcement officials need not formally notify suspects of their rights in terrorism cases. "It should go without saying that when you attempt to blow up Times Square, you pretty much forfeit the rights and latitude extended to everyone else," a GOP Insider replied.

Other GOPers contended, "The ticking time bomb scenario is more real than ever," and that the topic could become "the biggest issue of the fall campaign." Only 15% of GOP Insiders objected to a Miranda exception for accused terrorists. The remainder hedged that their view "depends" on the circumstances.

FL AG Bill McCollum (R) is the latest GOP candidate to shift his position on AZ's new immigration law thanks to pressure from a primary rival, but the switch puts him at odds with senior GOPers in his home state.

In a statement explaining his shift, McCollum said AZ Gov. Jan Brewer (R) and the AZ state legislature's adjustments to the controversial language eased his fears about the measure's unintended consequences.

"I applaud Gov. Brewer and the Arizona Legislature for stepping up their enforcement efforts at a time when President Obama's administration has let states down," McCollum said in a statement. "I support Arizona's law as amended, and if the federal government fails to secure our borders and solve the problem of illegal immigration, I would support a similar law for Florida."

Before the law was amended, McCollum said that FL should not enact such a "far out" law. Ex-FL Gov. Jeb Bush (R) agreed, saying that the issue was a federal one and shouldn't have to be dealt with at a state level.

McCollum has tacked to the right since businessman Rick Scott (R) entered the race in mid-April. Scott is reaching out to the conservative wing of the GOP to win the primary, and has already spent close to $5 million dollars on TV and radio ads. Scott released a radio ad this week touting his support for the AZ law.

"If we have laws in this country, shouldn't police officers be allowed to enforce them? For years Washington has limited local police ability to enforce immigration laws. Now Arizona is changing that, and Florida should too," Scott says in the ad. "If someone gets stopped for speeding or arrested for robbery, the police should be allowed determine if they are here legally. It's just common sense. President Obama and other liberals call it discrimination. Nonsense."

McCollum isn't only in changing his mind: FL SEN '10 candidate/ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) also views the newly adjusted law more favorably. But while this shift may help McCollum get through the primary, it may be a point of contention if he reaches the general election.

CFO Alex Sink (D) came out forcefully against the AZ law when it was enacted. Latino voters, whom national polling shows have been solidly against the AZ law, constituted 14% of the FL electorate in '08, and their force in FL politics will only grow stronger as the state's demographics change.

Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell is confident he will have another 2 years as his party's leader after receiving commitments from the vast majority of his conference, top Senate GOP sources tell Hotline OnCall.

Though he has faced political setbacks of late, including the loss of close ally Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT), McConnell has been working the GOP conference for months in order to preclude any possible challenges he might face next year.

McConnell has been overly cautious, cognizant of the anti-incumbent mood around the country, sources said. He has spent months in private conversations with colleagues, listening to advice about the direction of the conference and asking them, in one-on-one meetings, for their votes.

Some outside the Beltway have pinned their hopes on Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC), who they want to challenge McConnell. DeMint has opposed McConnell in several contests this year, including in McConnell's home state, where DeMint is backing ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) and McConnell is supporting Sec/State Trey Grayson (R); polls show Paul leading Grayson by wide margins.

But DeMint has publicly said he will not challenge McConnell; privately, he has promised McConnell his vote, according to multiple sources.

"I'd be floored if McConnell was not re-elected [as] leader with an overwhelming, if not unanimous, vote. It's just incomprehensible," said one senior GOP aide.

Taking extra precautions isn't new for McConnell. He hasn't faced a challenger for his leadership posts for 4 straight elections, and he has few enemies within the conference. Perhaps the only member who wishes him ill is Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY), who McConnell helped push toward retirement last year. But, the senior GOP aide noted, Bunning's retirement means he won't be around to cast a leadership ballot next year.

GOPers remain unlikely to take back the Senate this year, given the insufficient number of Dem-held seats in serious danger of flipping control. Barring a major disaster or public relations flub, McConnell will be back for another term as the GOP leader.

Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) on Wednesday provided the IL GOP with crucial campaign cash during a major fundraiser last night in Chicago, and now IL Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) wants her to get him some money, too.

In an email sent to supporters today, Giannoulias manager Michael Rendina points to Palin's fundraiser as a cause to contribute more to the Dem nominee, and as an excuse to tie Palin to Rep. Mark Kirk (R), Giannoulias' general election foe.

"Can Sarah Palin see Illinois from her house in Alaska? Well, she got to see Illinois up close and personal yesterday at a fundraiser for Mark Kirk and the Republican Party," Rendina said in the email. "First, Mark Kirk begged for Palin's endorsement. Now, he'll take the cash raised off of her Obama-hating rhetoric."

Tickets to last night's fundraiser went from $500 to $25K per person. Later, Palin appeared at a suburban theater to headline a rally hosted by WIND, a conservative Chicago radio station; about 4K people showed up to the rally, according to local news reports, shelling out more than $50 per ticket.

Kirk wasn't actually at either event, though; he stayed in DC to cast votes.
Only state Sen. Bill Brady (R), the party's GOV nominee, attended the fundraiser.

IL GOP did not immediately return phone calls or emails seeking information on the fundraiser.

Rep. Alan Mollohan's (D-WV) loss on Tuesday is the latest evidence that incumbents face a tumultuous election season this year. But for Dems hoping to hold on to Mollohan's northern WV district, his loss may not be the end of the world.

Instead, state Sen. Mike Oliverio (D) will represent his party on the Nov. ballot against ex-WV GOP chair David McKinley (R). Dems have been slow to embrace Oliverio after he beat their incumbent; in his initial statement on the race, DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen didn't even mention Oliverio's name. But upon further reflection, some Dems are starting to think they dodged a bullet.

Mollohan, after all, had serious ethics troubles, and GOPers saw him as the easier candidate to beat in Nov. The district is a southern Dem district -- Dems hold a big voter registration advantage in the seat, and 25K more Dems voted than GOPers in the primary. What's more, Gov. Joe Manchin (D) easily carried the seat during his 2 races.

Oliverio beat Mollohan by stressing both Mollohan's ethics issues and his own opposition to many Dem initiatives. Dem operatives in DC expressed displeasure over Oliverio's comment that he wants to vote for someone other than Nancy Pelosi as speaker. But in a district that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) won by a 57%-42% margin, that may not be a bad thing.

GOPers privately concede that their job got harder when Mollohan lost his re-election bid. But, they point out, they still have a strong shot at taking what amounts to an open seat in a strong year for GOPers nationally. An internal GOP poll conducted in Dec. shows a generic GOPer leading a generic Dem by a 43%-37% margin, giving the party hope that McKinley can capitalize.

And now the focus turns to Oliverio himself. The NRCC, which has signaled the district will be a priority for them, is likely to focus on Oliverio's record as a state legislator, cherry-picking votes to paint the picture of a free-spending tax-raiser.

VA Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) has waded in to one competitive primary, but he's staying out of the race against Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA), shying away from a recruit top GOP strategists have pushed as a top candidate.

McDonnell yesterday endorsed car dealer Scott Rigell (R), one of 6 candidates running in a crowded field against Rep. Glenn Nye (R). But while chatting with reporters yesterday, McDonnell said he had no plans to get involved in the race against Perriello.

In that contest, state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) is the party establishment's favored candidate. But some of the 6 other GOP candidates have been tagging Hurt as the party of DC, making top GOPers reluctant to wade into the race. McDonnell is among that group.

"Robert and I worked very closely together in the General Assembly," McDonnell told Hotline OnCall yesterday when asked whether he would endorse Hurt. "I try not to be involved in competitive primaries, but the Rigell family, after our 20-year relationship, I felt this was a special case."

McDonnell said he had tried to persuade Rigell to run for Congress in '96. Now that Rigell is in the race, McDonnell said he felt an obligation to back his friend. "This is the only one that I'm involved with," McDonnell said.

Addressing members of the RNC yesterday, McDonnell said the GOP is poised for historic electoral gains, thanks to the Obama admin's first-year agenda. GOPers could pick up as many as 4 seats in VA this year, he said -- counting those held by Perriello, Nye and Reps. Gerry Connolly (D) and Rick Boucher (D). Speaking with reporters later, McDonnell said he believes his party can take back the House.

"There's a very realistic shot at 40 seats," McDonnell said. "The fact that we've had such robust competition with great candidates, this could be a landmark year for the Republicans."

A general election matchup between Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) and ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R) would be better for Dems than a race between Toomey and Sen. Arlen Specter (D), according to a new survey.

The Quinnipiac Univ. poll, conducted May 4-10, surveyed 1,161 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 2.9%. Sestak and Specter were tested against Toomey.

GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUPS
        All Dem GOP Ind            All Dem GOP Ind
Toomey  47% 12% 86% 52%    Toomey  42%  9% 81% 46%
Specter 40  73   9  31     Sestak  40  71  10  30

Specter's approval and favorable ratings are dreadful. Just 38% approve of his job performance, while only 36% view him favorably. And while Sestak is unknown by more than half of all PA voters, his ads, which he began last month, are having a positive impact.

"The money that Sestak has been spending introducing himself to Democratic primary voters with TV ads seems to be having an effect on general election voters as well," Quinnipiac pollster Peter Brown said.

Sestak holds Toomey significantly below the 50% mark among independents, while Specter's numbers with unaffiliated voters give Toomey a majority.

In the GOV race, AG Tom Corbett (R) leads the Dem field, with only Allegheny Co. exec. Dan Onorato (D) giving Corbett a real race. Onorato has been on TV advertising in advance of the Dem primary, but he still trails Corbett by a 43%-37% margin. Corbet boasts a 13-point lead among independents, but 20% of Dems remain undecided in advance of next week's primary.

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (I) thinks any money donated to his campaign during his run for the GOP SEN nod has gone to a good cause -- and he's keeping it.

Crist, who switched his voter registration to "no party affiliation" yesterday, initially said he would consider giving refunds to those who sought them. But yesterday, his campaign said he wouldn't be giving back the money.

"People gave to a good cause and we're going to spend it on a good cause," Crist told reporters yesterday. "That's why I'm going to keep it. It's important to be able to get our message out and communicate with the people of Florida."

The decision to keep checks written before his party switch could indicate that Crist is worried about raising the money needed to build a statewide organization and advertise in the crucial final weeks. And when he airs ads against ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R), he'll be using top GOPers' cash to do so.

Crist has taken in more than $82K from GOP senators and their affiliated PACs, FEC records show. That includes $10K each from the NRSC, NRSC chair John Cornyn and Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell -- none of which, sources said, has been returned.

Cornyn isn't taking Crist's new position on campaign cash lightly. In a letter to Crist's campaign sent yesterday, Cornyn says Crist's reversal speaks to his character as a candidate.

"Breaking this promise demonstrates an enormous lack of character, as Floridians are reminded that they simply cannot trust what you say," Cornyn wrote in the harshly-worded letter. "You claim that your political decisions are based on 'listening to the people.' Hopefully, you will do so in this case and return the contributions that you received from the NRSC, members of the Republican Senate leadership, and the thousands of contributors in Florida and nationwide who backed your candidacy under the false pretense that you were a principled Republican."

Crist's decision is likely to save his campaign huge amounts of money. Last year, the FEC ruled the conservative Club for Growth could mail donors to Sen. Arlen Specter's (D-PA) campaign after Specter's party switch to tell them they could ask for their money back. That ruling, and the Club's subsequent mailing, cost Specter's campaign more than $1M.

"World News" led with a tape of oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico. "Evening News" led with the meeting between Pres. Obama and Afghan Pres. Hamid Karzai. "Nightly News" led with the tape of the oil.

Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) played "Hardball" 5/12 p.m.

Specter, on whether he made a "mistake" in not voting to confirm Elena Kagan as SG: "No. She would not answer important questions. The nomination for Supreme Court is very different. You can't ask a Supreme Court nominee how they're going to vote because of judicial independence. ... And that was a different situation. Listen, my political opponent wants me to come out declare for her, yes or no. Well, I don't make snap judgments before hearing the evidence, before hearing the testimony."

Specter, on voting for Thomas, Alito, Roberts and Scalia, and what each had that he's "wondering if Kagan has": "In each of those cases, I attended the confirmation hearings. I asked a lot of probing questions. I talked to my colleagues. And I came to a considered judgment. And that's the way I operate, on an independent basis, and I'll continue to do that. I'm not going to make a knee-jerk reaction and respond to my political opponent in the Senate campaign ... because he wants to make political capital. I'm not going to do that."

After the jump, more from Specter, and an interview with Sen. John McCain (R-AZ).

Good Thursday morning. Keep up with every National Journal product on our new Facebook page, and don't forget to follow us on Twitter (and follow Hotline OnCall here).

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

PRES. OBAMA: If Dems are going to prevent widespread losses this year, the party needs to convince voters that it had the right approach to creating new jobs and turning around a flagging economy. And despite recent good news in monthly jobs reports, Americans remain largely pessimistic about the economy.

Dems, in short, need Pres. Obama to brag a little bit. He will do that today, when he travels to Buffalo to tour a small manufacturing plant and to make remarks on the economy. It's the latest stop in a months-long tour designed to claim credit where Dems can, and to sell what hasn't gotten credit yet. If Dems can't claim credit for the economy and convince voters that a turnaround is in the offing, winning re-election and holding on to the majority is going to become a challenge, much more so than it is now.

Obama is also using the presidential megaphone to do what his predecessor was so successful in doing -- tonight, Obama addresses a DCCC fundraiser in Manhattan, where he will rake in more money for the party. Despite Dem leads in the race for campaign cash, the party doesn't have the advantage over GOPers it did in '06 and '08. So while the GOP is hounded for not raising cash, it's actually not doing that badly.

SHARRON ANGLE: The Tea Party movement has laid claim to a candidate, and if there's ever been a place to test the power of the as-yet-untested movement, it's in a GOP primary among candidates who aren't well-known by the party's base. Now, a new survey shows Angle, the conservative former assemblywoman, gaining serious ground on 2 better-funded candidates -- almost certainly because of support from a Tea Party group.

In a move that was expected by many, Gov. David Paterson (D) announced today that he'll call a special election to replace ex-Rep. Eric Massa (D) for Election Day -- 11/2 -- despite legal action by some GOPers to get the date moved up.

This move means there will be two NY-29 contests on the 11/2 ballot: the special, which will cover a term from Nov. through early Jan.; and the general election ballot, which will cover the full two-year term.

GOPers are highly likely to nominate ex-Corning Mayor Tom Reed (R) for the special, while Dems have already nominated ex-CIA analyst Matt Zeller (D).

Both nominees, though, will have to fight through a 9/14 primary, although only Reed currently faces opposition, and those challengers don't look likely to pose a serious threat to his bid.

Paterson blamed "serious concerns" over the rollout of new electronic voting machines, the cost of the election, as well as the "possible disenfranchisement" of overseas military voters as reasons to wait until Nov. to hold the race.

When it looked like Paterson would hold off and not call a special until Nov., local GOPers filed suit to compel Paterson to call a special. The parties will meet in court later this month, and a judge said he'd like to issue a decision quickly on the case.

But if the case is dismissed, Paterson will issue the Special Election proclamation in Oct., roughly 30-40 days prior to 11/2.

The RGA and MA Treas. Tim Cahill's (I) campaign are feuding over several RNC members, proxies in a battle for MA's conservative voters.

Cahill, running to the right of Harvard Pilgrim health care CEO Charlie Baker (R), has tried to convince several RNC members to complain that the RGA is spending money to defeat a true conservative. Earlier today, Cahill's campaign touted a letter from 8 RNC members to RGA chair Haley Barbour, in which the members ask Barbour to stop spending GOP money in MA.

But now, after a day of wrangling, several of those members are asking for their names to be taken off the letter.

"As members of the Republican National Committee and representatives of Iowa Republicans, we strongly support the efforts of Haley Barbour and the Republican Governors Association to support and help elect all duly nominated Republican candidates for Governor all across this country," IA RNC members Steve Scheffler and Kim Lehman said in a statement, provided to Hotline OnCall by an RGA spokesman.

The statement represents a dramatic backpedal for both Lehman and Scheffler. Earlier, both had harsh words for Barbour.

"My concern is Haley Barbour," Lehman told Hotline OnCall in a phone interview today. "This is, in my opinion, poor leadership."

Scheffler said Barbour's actions would impact his WH'12 chances. "He's toast in Iowa, as far as I'm concerned," Scheffler said. "I traditionally stay out of presidential contested races, but this kind of information will be distributed far and wide."

"We are strong conservatives and signed a letter we initially thought would send a message of support for conservative candidates in our party," the 2 said in their joint statement late Wednesday. "Upon further reflection, we understand this letter could be interpreted as meddling in the affairs of an independent Republican organization and we wish in no way to harm the efforts of the Republican Governors Association in the pursuit of its work."

IA has a competitive GOV race this year, with ex-Gov. Terry Branstad (R) running a strong campaign against Gov. Chet Culver (D), meaning the RGA has ample leverage to use if they needed to.

As races begin to heat up around the country, VP Joe Biden is hitting the road to lend a hand to Dems in close races. Biden will head to IA next Tuesday, to stump for Gov. Chet Culver (D) in Cedar Rapids, as Culver officially kicks off his re-election bid next week. Culver would likely face a tough race in the general election against ex-Gov. Terry Branstad (R), regarded by most as the GOP frontrunner.

Biden is also stumping for Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) saying on NBC's Today show yesterday that he will campaign for him "if needed, Friday and possibly Monday." Specter will face off against Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) in what is expected to be a very close Dem primary next Tuesday.

And Biden hasn't been shy about helping out in House races, appearing at fundraisers for late-Rep. Murtha staffer Mark Critz (D) in PA-12 and Rep. Betsy Markey (D-CO). "There is no question that Vice President Biden has been very helpful on the campaign trail and we look forward to him preparing even more in the next six months," said DCCC spokesperson Ryan Rudominer.

NATIONAL HARBOR, MD -- An RNC panel has chosen to recommend Tampa, FL, as the site of the '12 convention after a vote Wednesday afternoon at an annual meeting of party chairs.

The site selection committee's recommendation was based on Tampa's superior bid, RNC chairman Michael Steele told Hotline OnCall. The full RNC will ratify the choice at the party's semi-annual meeting this Aug. in Kansas City.

"Every city was given the same access to the information we were looking for, the whole plan we were going to lay out for our convention," Steele said in a brief interview. "It's a question of completing the entire package for us."

Steele called it a "tough decision," and several members who have experience on previous site selection committees said they could not remember such a competitive process. Steele informed Tampa of the committee's decision in a conference call Wednesday afternoon.

Tampa beat out Phoenix and Salt Lake City, the other 2 finalists that had submitted bids. The RNC will hold its convention the week of Aug. 27, '12.

Dems have yet to begin their formal site selection process, but the committee is said to be taking a close look at Phoenix, Houston, Charlotte and St. Louis as the venues for their '12 confab.

Updated: Check out the furious backpedaling from both IA RNC members, in a statement distributed by the RGA, here.

Conservative members of the RNC are upset with RGA chair Haley Barbour for spending party money to attack a right-leaning candidate, and some are threatening to make it hurt any WH hopes Barbour may hold.

Committee members have drafted a letter they plan to send to Barbour expressing their anger over the RGA's support for businessman Charlie Baker (R), the former Harvard Pilgrim Health Care CEO running against Gov. Deval Patrick (D). The conservatives see Baker as a liberal who doesn't represent the GOP establishment.

Meanwhile, the RGA has run radio and TV ads blasting Treas. Tim Cahill (I), a former Dem who is running as a third-party candidate. Cahill is running to the right of both Baker and Patrick, and RNC members say spending money to defeat him is the wrong use of the party's money.

Earlier this week, the RGA released the latest round of ads accusing Cahill of misspending taxpayer money while in charge of the state lottery. The ads aim to undercut Cahill's support as GOPers worry his success will hurt their chances to knock off Patrick.

"My concern is Haley Barbour," IA RNC member Kim Lehman told Hotline OnCall. "He's responsible. He's part of the leadership. I think it hurts people in the grassroots."

"This is, in my opinion, poor leadership," Lehman added.

But, RGA spokesman Tim Murtaugh said, the RGA's job is to elect candidates like Baker, who received 89% of the vote at the state party convention last month.

"It's important to remember that Charlie Baker is the duly nominated nominee in Massachusetts in the race for governor, which is our arena. We help elect Republican governors where we can have an impact. In Massachusetts, we can have an impact," Murtaugh said. "Charlie Baker is a solid Republican candidate, and we believe he's going to win."

WA Gov. Christine Gregoire (D) leads a short list to replace Solicitor General Elena Kagan, the WH has told members of Gregoire's home-state delegation.

Gregoire, a 2-term incumbent and a former WA AG, has been a rumored contender for other admin positions. But the WH has informed top aides to WA members that she is under serious consideration, according to several sources inside the delegation.

An admin official confirmed Gregoire's name is one of those being considered. Gregoire endorsed candidate Obama just before the WA caucuses in '08, offering a helping hand as Obama picked up two-thirds of the state's delegates.

Gregoire's appointment would elevate LG Brad Owen (D), a conservative Dem who has held his largely ceremonial post since '96. Several more prominent Dems have been angling to run for the state's top job in '12, when Gregoire was expected to pass on a third term.

WA insiders put Rep. Jay Inslee (D) at the top of the Dem list. Snohomish Co. Exec. Aaron Reardon (D) and Rep. Adam Smith (D) are also mentioned as potential contenders. On the other side, ex-state Sen. Dino Rossi (R), who lost twice to Gregoire by narrow margins, is the most popular GOPer in the state, but Dem strategists are most worried about AG Rob McKenna (R), who covets the job.

If Gregoire makes the cut, she would immediately be in position to land on another short list -- the solicitor general, who represents the government before the Supreme Court, is sometimes called the 10th Justice, and those who hold the job are often considered potential SCOTUS nominees. Obama has reportedly told top aides he wants to be the first president to appoint 3 women to the high court. Several other women -- most notably District Court Judge Diane Wood, MI Gov. Jennifer Granholm and DHS Sec. Janet Napolitano -- have been on Obama's radar as possible SCOTUS picks too.

Gregoire would also be the latest in a series of WA officials to move to DC. Ex-Gov. Gary Locke serves as Commerce Sec. Ex-King Co. Exec. Ron Sims, who finished second behind Gregoire in the '04 Dem primary, is the number 2 official at HUD. And ex-Seattle police chief Gil Kerlikowske heads the Office of National Drug Control Policy.

Though the GOP establishment has serious doubts about whether he can win in Nov., most officials and strategists believe ophthalmologist Rand Paul is in position to win the party's nomination to replace retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R-KY) this fall.

And on Tuesday, even some of the GOP establishment seemed to buckle to Paul's momentum. Amb. Cathy Bailey, a top GOP fundraiser appointed to a foreign service post by George W. Bush and who briefly considered entering the race herself, said yesterday she will back Paul in the primary.

Bailey's support can help Paul raise big money, sources in KY said, given her close ties to the state's donor community. And while most of the state's political establishment has trended toward Sec/State Trey Grayson (R), Bailey's backing gives Paul some insider credibility he lacked so far.

"Paul has the momentum," said one state GOP strategist who backs Grayson's campaign. "People want to vote for a winner. Most folks on the ground think this one is all but over."

The most recent survey, conducted May 2-4 by the independent firm Research 2000 for the Lexington Herald-Leader and 2 KY TV stations, shows Paul leading Grayson by a wide 44%-32% margin. The survey of 500 likely GOP primary voters had a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.

Grayson and his allies have tried to convince voters that Paul's views on Guantanamo Bay detainees and the war on terror are out of step with the mainstream. But Paul has fired back, using Grayson's own words to imply he would help Pres. Obama and that he would vote for budgets that increased the national debt.

Sources called Paul's latest ad, which uses a Grayson appearance at a candidate forum to suggest he would vote for big-spending budgets, devastating for Grayson's campaign (See the ad after the jump).

A Paul win would be a setback for Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell. McConnell led a behind-the-scenes effort to force Bunning into retirement last year, and he's quietly aided Grayson's bid, before publicly endorsing him last week.

Bunning, Sen. Jim DeMint (R-SC) and Christian conservative leader James Dobson have all endorsed Paul.

With less than a week until the first Dem primary of his Senate career, Arlen Specter is locked in an air-tight race with Rep. Joe Sestak (D), according to 3 new public polls released today. And, as each poll shows, the momentum is on Sestak's side.

Among likely voters in the May 18 primary, Specter leads Sestak in one poll by 2 points, Sestak leads Specter in another by 2 points, and the third is dead-even.

         Quinnipiac F&M Muhlenberg
Specter     44%     36%    45%
Sestak      42      38     45

The Quinnipiac Univ. poll has the largest sample and is the most statistically significant. It also represents a significant tightening of the race over the past 2 weeks. In the previous poll, conducted April 28-May 2, Specter led Sestak, 47-39%. And a month before that, Specter's lead in the Q poll was greater than 20 points.

"Sen. Arlen Specter has a history of winning close elections and he'll need that to continue because his once commanding lead is gone," said Quinnipiac Univ. Polling Institute Asst. Dir. Peter Brown.

"The intangibles are clearly on Sestak's side. He has the momentum and the anti-incumbent wave sweeping the country is a good omen for the challenger," Brown added.

Notably, Sestak is surging despite the fact that relatively few PA Dems know enough about him to form an opinion. Fully 46% of likely voters in the primary haven't heard enough about Sestak to have an opinion about him. But those who have heard about Sestak like him, with 42% of likely voters viewing him favorably, compared to 10% unfavorably.

Specter, on the other hand, carried a good bit of baggage into the primary. His favorable rating about likely voters has dropped from 60% in early April to just a bare majority, and his unfavorable ratings have risen from 26% to 33%.

NATIONAL HARBOR, MD -- Sen. John Thune (R-SD) takes a lighter tone than his potential WH '12 primary rivals when setting up the GOP's contrast with the Obama administration.

Addressing state GOP chairmen and members of the RNC here Tuesday night, a subdued and docile Thune said the nation is at a crossroads and is faced with a choice in this fall's midterm elections. Rather than blast Pres. Obama when he offered some standard GOP talking points, he lamented that "this administration" and the "leadership in Washington" are spending too much.

"This is a crossroads election. We're going to choose a vision for the future," he said near the end of his remarks. He went on, "If we don't change directions, we're headed for a wreck. It's time for America to change direction, and that's the message we need to take to the American people."

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) and MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty, 2 almost certain WH candidates, have taken to blasting Obama by name and haven't let up as they've toured the country in the last 2 years speaking to friendly crowds.

And that may be why the only real applause line Thune received during his speech was when he called for a balanced budget amendment.

Perhaps foreshadowing an issue that could set him apart from his potential primary opponents, in mentioning national security, he reminded that it's "still very much on the minds of a lot of Americans." And his most direct hit on the administration was that the current WH team seems to be more interested in "the rights of terrorists and political correctness."

Not a single audience member asked a question of the SD native, but Michigan committeeman Saul Anuzis said Thune "was great," adding, "His message really resonates with this crowd."

Iowa committeewoman Kim Lehman, who wore a blue "Thune!" sticker, said, "I thought he was awesome," adding, "His message is, 'let's get it done.'" But she said she wished "He could have turned it up a little."

"World News" led with less oil leaking into the Gulf. "Evening News" led with the oil moving closer to the southern coast. "Nightly News" led with the Gulf Coast oil spill.

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) joined MSNBC's Schultz on the "Ed Show" 5/11 p.m.

Sestak, on leading in the race despite Dem leaders supporting Specter: "What's really the matter is ... people have lost any faith that Washington, D.C., could do something right. They feel it's broken down in Washington. And they know that no career politician, particularly one who's been there 30 years and advanced the Republican agenda, can actually be asked to clean up the mess that they created."

Sestak, on whether Obama's support for Specter is a bad deal being played out: "I don't begrudge the president for having made that deal, nor for trying now to keep his end of the bargain. After all, Arlen Specter opposed Solicitor General Kagan when she went up for that thing, and the president needs him until we get a real Democrat in that office."

Sestak, on whether Specter is "a real" Dem: "No, I think as he said, very much, is that he really is not going to be a loyal Democrat ... In short, I don't think whether it's Republican or independent, it seems to be more the Specter party. I appreciate him. He's done some good things. But his time has come and gone after down there for 30 years."

Sestak, on whether he'll be victorious in the primary: "Yes. But I'm also going to be standing here as a public servant for the working families. And I'm willing to lose my job as a senator later on in fighting for the policies with this president that I want to be the strongest ally with, not a yes man, obviously, in order to bring about the policies that working families and those who want to work have to have" ("Ed Show," MSNBC, 5/11).

After the jump, an interview with KY Sec/State Trey Grayson (R).

Good Wednesday morning. After failed SEN bids in '96, '00 and '06, ex-NE AG Don Stenberg (R) is back in the game. Last night, he won the GOP primary and is the heavy favorite to take over for retiring NE Treas. Shane Osborn (R), who is retiring this year.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

STATE SEN. MIKE OLIVERIO: For the second time in a matter of days, an entrenched incumbent member of Congress has lost his job. Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV), a 14-term incumbent and a cardinal on the House Appropriations Committee, will join Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) as the first 2 members sent to the sidelines by their own party.

Voters chose Oliverio over Mollohan by a 56%-44% margin yesterday after a primary in which Oliverio focused on Mollohan's late opposition to cap and trade legislation and on the incumbent's ethics troubles. Mollohan, meanwhile, spent his time and money bashing Oliverio's stands as too conservative for the Dem electorate. Oliverio will face former state GOP chair David McKinley (R), who won a competitive GOP primary.

Oliverio's victory should be troubling to establishment Dems. While he didn't make health care leigslation much of an issue during the contest, the fact that a pro-health care legislator can lose in a Dem primary could portend bad things for the party in the fall -- even if Oliverio is able to hold on to the northern WV seat.

AFGHAN PReS. HAMID KARZI: Karzai visits the WH today for talks with Pres. Obama aimed at rebuilding trust between the 2 governments. The presidents will meet bilaterally, then hold a meeting with their security teams. It's their first meeting since Karzai made comments critical of the U.S. and top American security officials expressed skepticism in Karzai's leadership abilities.

For the second time in four days, an incumbent has not only gone down to defeat, but has been trounced. Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV) was overwhelmed by state Sen. Mike Oliverio (D), 56-44% in his bid for re-nomination tonight.

Mollohan joins Sen. Bob Bennett (R) -- who lost his primary battle on 5/8 -- among incumbents this cycle who've been defeated.

Mollohan's loss was not unexpected, as polling late in the race -- by both campaigns -- showed Mollohan struggling. But the enormity of his defeat is sure to send yet another message to already weary incumbents that voters in this enviro are not cutting them any slack.

Mollohan lost 15 of the 20 counties in the sprawling Wheeling-based CD, and while Oliverio's base of Marion and Monongalia (Morgantown) Cos gave him a 2.5K-vote margin, that was just icing on the cake. With 75% of the vote counted, Oliverio held a 6.3K-vote lead.

During the campaign, Oliverio focused almost solely on Mollohan's past ethical troubles in his TV ads, and highlighted CREW's designation of Mollohan as one of the 15 most corrupt members of Congress.

Mollohan struck back and claimed DoJ cleared him of any wrongdoing. He also attacked Oliverio for participating in a group of conservative legislators that supports privatizing Social Security and outsourcing of U.S. jobs.

The health care law -- which the pro-life Mollohan voted for -- was also likely a factor in his defeat.

But the ethics charges against Mollohan were the ones that apparently resonated with voters. Oliverio's continual hammering on the issue, along with a strong anti-incumbent enviro, put real dents in Mollohan's armor -- dents that hadn't existed before this cycle. In fact, despite facing these ethics troubles for the better part of two cycles, Mollohan ran unopposed in '08 and took 64% against a GOPer in '06.

And Mollohan's rebuttal -- that Oliverio was too conservative -- may not have been the best ploy for a CD that gave John McCain 57%, and where many Dems consider themselves to be conservative. Indeed, Mollohan's attacks may have helped Oliverio in the general, as GOPers will not find him to be an easy target.

Last month, when asked whether he'd vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker, Oliverio told the Wheeling Intelligencer, "Hopefully, there will be a better candidate than Nancy Pelosi."

Oliverio hasn't said how he would've voted on the health care overhaul, but he did say he had "serious reservations" about the bill as it was making its way through the House. But he's strongly opposed to cap-and-trade. And in a state that's as dependent on coal as West Virginia, this is a popular position. Mollohan, meanwhile, was attacked for announcing his "no" vote on the bill at the last minute, and for not actively fighting against the bill.

For those reasons, Oliverio will likely be a tougher general election foe for GOPers than the tainted Mollohan would've been.

DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen, meanwhile, thanked Mollohan for his service in a release, and added he's confident Oliverio will hold "this historically Democratic seat."

But GOPers will still have a very strong pickup opportunity in this CD, as they managed to get their preferred nominee -- '96 GOV candidate/ex-WV GOP Chair David McKinley (R) -- out of a nasty primary. He won the six-way battle with 36%, fighting off upstart businessman Mac Warner (R) and ex-state Sen. Sarah Minear (R), who took 25 and 22%, respectively.

Minear and McKinley both funded a large portion of their campaigns, and spent the early part of the race lobbing attacks back-and-forth over past votes in the legislature.

But while those two fought, Warner -- a favorite of some in the Tea Party -- managed to quietly sneak into contention. Minear and McKinley adjusted their campaigns accordingly, and spent the final week attacking Warner for tax liens that were placed on his family business.

McKinley has the personal cash to make this a very strong pickup opportunity for GOPers, and strategists believe they have plenty to criticize from Oliverio's long legislative record. But the GOP will face an entirely different race against Oliverio than they would've had against Mollohan, as a generic "Nancy Pelosi liberal" campaign won't work against this nominee.

As expected, the race to fill ex-Rep. Nathan Deal's (R-GA) seat will come down to a 6/8 runoff between two GOPers -- ex-state Rep. Tom Graves (R) and ex-state Sen. Lee Hawkins (R) -- who topped tonight's eight-candidate special election field with 35% and 20%, respectively. No candidate got the 50% needed to avoid the runoff.

That two GOPers reached the runoff was never in doubt. John McCain took 75% here in '08, and no serious Dems even considered the contest. In fact, the lone Dem in the contest, Hall Co. Dem Chair Mike Freeman (D), took just 6%.

Many predicted Graves and Hawkins would lead the field in tonight's vote, as they were the candidates that entered the abbreviated contest with the most name ID. Before Graves resigned from the legislature earlier this year, he represented the southern part of this N. GA CD. And Hawkins represented a district centered in the populous Hall Co. Combined, the two spent $828K on the race.

The Club for Growth backed Graves in the race, and -- in a sign of things to come in the next month -- aired TV ads attacking Hawkins for failing to sign a pledge to repeal the health care law. The Club also accused him of siding with liberals in the legislature. Hawkins responded by saying he supports repeal of the law, and accused Graves of having the support of DC special interests.

But the sniping back and forth opened the door for several outsiders, including businessman Steve Tarvin (R) and Ccardiologist Chris Cates (R), to sneak into contention. Tarvin loaned his campaign $200K and also worked the Tea Party circuit. Cates also put $200K of his own money into the race and focused on selling his outsider credentials. In the end, the Tarvin and Cates fell just short, taking 17% and 13%, respectively.

With backing from elements of the establishment, Tea Party orgs and the Club for Growth, Graves starts out with the early advantage. But in a very low turnout runoff, Hawkins still has a shot, considering he hails from a large population base.

Pres. Obama and Speaker Nancy Pelosi may be personas non grata in PA-12, but ex-Murtha staffer Mark Critz (D) is counting on another Dem -- Pres. Clinton -- to rally partisans days before the 5/18 special election.

Clinton will attend a 5/16 get-out-the-vote rally for Critz in Johnstown.

Coincidentally, Clinton also attended a last-minute event for Rep. John Murtha (D) in '08, as polls showed the race between Murtha and ret. Army lieutenant colonel William Russell (R) tightening. Murtha won that race with 59%.

There aren't too many high-profile Dems who could show up and do Critz any good here; in fact, despite the CD's nearly 2-1 Dem voter advantage, Pelosi and Obama hold abysmal ratings. And John McCain won the CD in '08. So far, the biggest stars Critz has brought into the CD include WV Gov. Joe Manchin (D) and doo-wop singer Jon "Bowzer" Bauman, although VP Biden held a fundraiser for Critz in Pittsburgh, which is outside the CD.

Clinton, though, is remembered much more fondly by voters here, and he won the district in both '92 and '96.

Businessman Tim Burns (R) won't be without star power on the trail in the final days of the race, either. Last week, his camp announced that MA Sen. Scott Brown (R) will headline a 5/14 rally in Washington, PA, and will also hold a fundraiser earlier in the day.

NATIONAL HARBOR, MD -- The RNC is likely to make radical changes to its presidential selection process at this summer's semi-annual meeting, pushing back the date on which the first states can hold their nominating contests.

A temporary delegate selection committee will recommend allowing IA, NH, SC and NV to hold contests in a pre-window period that begins in Feb., a month later than the '08 process began. Other states may begin holding their contests in March, rather than in Feb.

The delegate selection plan will be made public before the summer meeting, planned for early Aug., sources in the closed-door meeting told Hotline OnCall.

But, in a significant change, any state that chooses to hold a nominating contest before April must award their delegates on an at least partly proportional basis. In '08, states that held contests during the nominating window could award all their delegates to the winner of the plurality of votes; that system allowed Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) to take all 57 delegates from FL even though he won the state with just 36% of the vote.

The new nominating system maintains traditional spots for early states like NH, which will still hold the first contest, and IA, which has the first caucuses. SC will hold the first-in-the-South contest it covets, with NV maintaining a post it first held in the '08 cycle.

"It's as God intended it," joked ex-NH Gov. John H. Sununu, chairman of the NH GOP, after the presentation.

Moving the beginning of the nominating contest back has been a priority for prominent members of both the DNC and the RNC. RNC members have worked closely with DNC member James Roosevelt, the chairman of the party's rules committee, to jointly move the process to later dates. That, both parties hope, will prevent rampant campaigning over the winter holidays.

The Hotline's Amy Walter writes on lessons we can learn from special elections in PA 12 and HI 01:

The DCCC Isn't Afraid To Cut Its Losses. On Monday, the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee announced that it would not be "investing additional resources" beyond the $350,000 they'd already put into the special election in Hawaii-01. Not long ago, the idea that a campaign committee would essentially forfeit a seat -- especially one that holds such symbolic value as President Obama's childhood district -- would be unthinkable.

But in this case, it's a pretty smart strategy. First, it allows the DCCC to pin the blame for a loss on parochial local politics. Next, it puts pressure on GOP nominee Charles Djou and the National Republican Campaign Committee to keep up the spending. After all, now that the expectation has been set for a Djou win, anything less would be a total disaster. Some of the conspiracy-minded among us are wondering if this public display of detachment isn't really a head fake designed to lull Djou and his team into complacency and lure outside groups in to help the Democrats.

More important, it suggests that Democrats are in triage mode. With just $26 million in the bank and 40-50 seats to defend, they're going to have to leave a lot of bodies on the gurneys if they want to save their majority. Of course, saying no to a challenger is one thing, but cutting off money to an incumbent will be the ultimate test of fiscal discipline.

...

All Politics Is Local -- Unless It's Not. In a nutshell, however, the Pennsylvania race is a test of which profile is more problematic in a blue-collar, swing district: a businessman who wants to ship jobs overseas or a Pelosi-loving Dem who won't denounce his party's plans for socialized medicine.

A Critz win might seem to suggest that Republicans can't simply nationalize their way to victory in November. The caliber and quality of the individual candidates and campaigns matter, too. Of course, that was the same argument Republicans made in the summer of 2006 when they narrowly held onto to California-50 in a special election. They would, of course, go on to lose 30 seats and their majority just a few months later.

Read the whole column here.

NATIONAL HARBOR, MD -- The RNC is keeping an eye on a huge number of House seats in advance of the pending midterm elections, the committee's top political strategist said today in previewing the national political mood.

RNC political director Gentry Collins said the party has a list of 130 House seats -- including 122 held by Dems -- that could be targets by the end of the year. Collins said the party is likely to be able to compete across a broad playing field.

"I'm making no claim that we're going to pick up 130 House seats," Collins told reporters today. Pointing to Rep. David Obey's (D-WI) retirement, Collins added: "I've been expecting [the list] to shrink, to be candid with you. It's been growing."

The RNC categorizes each race in one of 5 categories, from those that favor GOPers to those that favor Dems. The party re-scores each race on a weekly basis. Collins promised the RNC would spend money on races in all 50 states, with a specific focus on House races.

GOPers say they will have Victory centers -- aimed at building an organization and operating get-out-the-vote efforts -- in at least 2 dozen districts by the end of June. The party will have 100 staffers working in those centers by next month, aimed at capitalizing on a promising, and building, wave.

"We did not win control of congress in 1994 because we put more precinct captains out on the field than the Democrats did. We did not win in '94 because of infrastructure. We won in '94 because we had a nationalized election with a Democratic administration and a Democratic Congress that had vastly overreached," CA GOP chair Ron Nehring said. "We're looking at a nationalized election already."

Meanwhile, as polls show the race to replace the late Rep. John Murtha (D-PA) as a tight contest, Collins was cautiously optimistic that businessman Tim Burns (R) would outlast former House aide Mark Critz (D). But, he warned, because Dems head to the polls to pick partisan nominees in a primary on the same day, and because Dems have an overwhelming voter turnout advantage, the GOPer is still at a disadvantage.

"We're getting very, very close to having identified a turnout universe that we think may be sufficient," Collins said. But, he added: "There are turnout dynamics in the special election that do not favor us."

Sen. Arlen Specter (D) today released his first TV ad featuring Pres. Obama. The ad contains video of Obama speaking glowingly of Specter at a September '09 rally in Philadelphia. Geared towards boosting turnout in Philadelphia, the ad could help Specter among African American voters, who make up a significant segment of the electorate.

See the ad, "Obama for Specter" here:

Specter has rapidly lost ground against Rep. Joe Sestak (D) in the last week, mostly due to a devastating TV ad which plays back Specter's own controversial statements on his party switch.

The timing of the ad comes as Specter is forced to answer new questions about his opposition to Soliciter General Elena Kagan. Specter voted against Kagan last March, though she was confirmed with 61 votes in the Senate. Now, as Kagan faces confirmation hearings for SCOTUS, Specter has said he is open to supporting her nomination.

VP Joe Biden will lend Specter a hand this Friday at a campaign rally, and may be back in town on Monday as well. Whether Obama will show up in PA for Specter before next Tuesday's primary has yet to be determined.

Ex-House aide Mark Critz (D) faces a financial shortfall a week before a crucial special election, but late contributions flooding into his campaign could keep him competitive.

Critz finished April with about $73K in the bank, far less than the $307K businessman Tim Burns (R) had on had at the same point. But in the intervening 2 weeks, Critz has raised $286K, according to late reports filed with the FEC.

Burns, who is tied or ahead in most public polls, has received $140K in last-minute contributions, meaning he will still likely raise and spend more than Critz during the short sprint to the general election.

Both House caucuses have given heavily to their respective nominees. A total of 33 House Dems have made late contributions to Critz through their campaign accounts or their PACs, adding up to $49K, while 12 House GOPers have given $22K to Burns over the last 2 weeks. NRSC chair John Cornyn chipped in an additional $5K.

But the candidates aren't the only ones advertising in the Johnstown-based district left open by the passing of the late Rep. John Murtha (D). The NRCC has poured $959K into the race, including a new $221K media buy made on Monday. The DCCC has spent $646K on the race, though they haven't made a significant ad buy since last Wednesday.

Other outside groups, like the American Future Fund and the American Action Network, are running their own advertisements on Burns's behalf.

-- Stephanie Palla contributed to this report

NATIONAL HARBOR, MD -- Ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich forecast GOP gains this Nov. and praised RNC chair Michael Steele while auditioning some lines he might use during a WH'12 bid in front of a friendly audience at a meeting of state GOP leaders, citing 2 looming special elections as opportunities for the GOP.

"If we are competitive in Congressman Murtha's district in Western Pennsylvania and we are competitive in Honolulu, then something very fundamental is happening here," Gingrich told RNC members. GOP candidates are leading or tied in public polls in open seat contests in PA 12 and HI 01.

But, Gingrich said, if the GOP is to set itself up for future successes, they will have to produce ideas and avoid the stigma of becoming the "party of no."

"We are poised to have one of the great elections of all time in '10," Gingrich said. "Then we have to govern."

If the GOP continues to block Dem initiatives, even if they take over one or both chambers of Congress, Gingrich warned, they will allow Pres. Obama to triangulate against Congress, as Bill Clinton did in the '90s.

Though Steele has come under fire for his tenure at the committee, Gingrich has consistently stood behind him. On Tuesday, Gingrich said Steele was "on the edge of being the most successful RNC chairman since Haley Barbour," who served as chair when the GOP retook Congress in '94.

Gingrich also said he wants House and Senate GOPers to send an ultimatum to a commission established to tackle the federal deficit, promising to vote against any solution that raises taxes. Instead, he said, the solution should come solely from cutting spending.

RNC members are gathered at a conference center just outside the Capitol Beltway for meetings in advance of this year's midterm elections. But some speakers may be more focused on the '12 elections, which Gingrich cast as equally important as the '10 midterms. Later today, Sen. John Thune (R-SD), another possible WH'12 contender, will speak to attendees.

A former top aide to ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) will head the independent expenditure wing of the NRSC, the committee said today.

Mike DuHaime, who served as campaign manager for Giuliani's primary campaign and political director for Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) general election bid, will lead the multi-million dollar effort to help elect GOP candidates. Most recently, DuHaime was a top strategist for NJ Gov. Chris Christie's (R) successful bid in '09.

"Mike DuHaime has an enormous amount of campaign experience and political expertise, and he will serve as an invaluable resource directing this important component of the NRSC's operation during the 2010 midterms," NRSC chair John Cornyn said in a statement.

The NRSC is the last party committee to wall off its independent expenditure unit from the rest of its political arm. Last week, the DCCC tapped political director Robby Mook to head its IE efforts. The NRCC put up its wall in March, while the DSCC walled off the separate units in April.

NATIONAL HARBOR, MD -- RNC chairman Michael Steele is still answering critics over the committee's profligate spending, taking time at a party meeting to deliver a line-by-line look at the RNC's budget and finances.

In a closed-door session Tuesday morning, Steele laid out the party's spending on private jets, hotel stays and travel spending, answering critics who have expressed anger at unusually high levels of spending, according to several sources who were in the room.

Steele's PowerPoint presentation, billed as a fact check on media reports about spending, came a month after The Daily Caller broke news that the RNC had reimbursed a contractor for a night at a risque L.A. nightclub in Jan. Steele called the expenses the "ugly gorilla" in the room, according to a source present during the presentation.

Big spending has angered major donors, and donations among those who give more than $10K has dropped from $17M in '07 to $3M in '09. Party officials contend that losing the WH and majorities in Congress significantly reduces the GOP's ability to attract major donors. Steele also stressed that the RNC has exceeded its goals among major donors, especially among donors who had stopped giving after 2 disastrous cycles for the GOP.

Billed as an annual report to the RNC, Steele said the party would pay for Victory directors in more than 2 dozen states. The party will have hired more than 100 staffers for the Victory program, aimed at creating grassroots organizations and turning out voters, by next month.

Steele also pointed to RNC co-chair Jan Larimer, who has focused on recruiting women candidates for office. The party boasts 97 women candidates running for Congress, 9 for Senate and 17 running in GOV races.

State GOP chairmen are spending 3 days in a new complex just outside the Capitol Beltway, holding an annual meeting aimed at preparing for the midterm elections.

Ex-NH AG Kelly Ayotte (R) is struggling to get past questions about her handling of an alleged Ponzi scheme that bilked NH residents out of millions of dollars, an incident that opponents have used to criticize her tenure as the state's top cop.

In a letter written Monday to state AG Michael Delaney (D), Ayotte asked for "all emails and schedules related to my tenure as Attorney General whether contained within office files or maintained on the State's backup computer system."

Ayotte continues to take heat from opponents, and in the latest assault, Rep. Paul Hodes's (D) camp on Monday cited a weekend report in the New Hampshire Union-Leader that indicated "Ayotte herself opined on how electronic records should be treated under the right to know law as attorney general."

"Ayotte claimed she had nothing to do with the deletion of her emails, yet she issued a legal memo in an attempt to hide deleted emails from public scrutiny just days before resigning to run for the Senate," said Hodes spokesperson Mark Bergman.

On Wednesday, the state AG's office is expected to release the findings of a report that examines the state's response to FRM, the firm that stands accused of defrauding NH citizens. Gov. John Lynch (D) told WMUR-TV last week that "all the records related to this Ponzi scheme should be released to the public."

Lynch spokesperson Colin Manning tells Hotline OnCall that Lynch awaits the report due Wednesday. "The governor will be reviewing that report closely," said Manning. "If state agencies failed in any way. ... the governor will hold them accountable."

Ayotte has not officially been accused of any wrongdoing by the state. But as she presses ahead as the front-runner in the SEN race, situations like this one only veer her off message, and require that she afford time to reacting to charges by opponents. Those opponents, most notably Hodes and businessman Bill Binnie (R), have taken pains to turn Ayotte's best asset -- her tenure as AG -- into a liability.

"World News," "Evening News" and "Nightly News" each led with Pres. Obama's selection of Elena Kagan for SCOTUS.

WH sr. adviser David Axelrod appeared on the "Ed Show" 5/10 p.m.

Axelrod, on whether Kagan will get the "same broad support" as when she was confirmed as solicitor gen.: "She should. She should get broad support. ... You would think that she would do well, but there are many times that I think we'll reach consensus in Washington and a funny thing happens on the way to the ball. So we'll wait and see, but we're prepared for a rigorous process, and I'm sure she's prepared for a rigorous process."

Axelrod, on GOPers saying she's "short on experience," and whether that's a "chance" the WH is taking: "No, I don't think it's a chance. The fact is that she's got great ... breadth of experience in every branch of government. ... In fact, they refer to her as the tenth justice because she worked so closely with the Supreme Court. ... If that's the most potent argument, I don't think it's going to be a very successful one" (MSNBC, 5/10).

After the jump, more on Kagan.

Ex-NRSC Chair John Ensign is still welcome at his old digs, despite being under investigation for the affair he admitted last year.

The NRSC is hosting an intimate coffee with the senator at its headquarters today, and it's limited to the first 15 donors who responded, according to the invitation.

Requested contributions are $250 from individuals and $500 from PACs. However, "Policy Board Members" -- those who contribute $15K annually -- are permitted to attend 3 coffees with senators per year as a benefit of that membership. In other words, it's possible no one will shell out any more money on Ensign and, thanks to the dough they've already forked over, just get his ear on the latest legislation moving through the upper chamber.

No word yet from the NRSC on whether the event is going on as planned, but the question has been posed.

Good Tuesday morning. We really hope Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) didn't have some big bet on the Lakers-Jazz series with any CA politicos. If he did, the Lakers' sweep, completed last night, is really going to bum him out.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter in politics today:

SEN. PATRICK LEAHY: The chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee will shepherd Pres. Obama's second SCOTUS nomination through confirmation hearings in the coming weeks, and he's heading to the WH today to plot strategy. Leahy is confident Solicitor General Elena Kagan will be confirmed, but, he said yesterday, he recognizes GOPers are going to be a problem.

"We have some Republicans who would automatically oppose anybody who was nominated," Leahy told Talking Points Memo. "The President could nominate Moses the Law Giver. In fact I told the President, I said you realize if you'd nominated Moses the Law Giver, somebody would raise, 'but he doesn't have a birth certificate! Where's his birth certificate!'"

So far, GOP reaction to Kagan has been muted, focused only on her opposition to the Solomon Amendment, which forced schools that receive federal funding to cooperate with military recruiters. Kagan heads to Capitol Hill for her first courtesy visit, sitting down with Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid this afternoon.

RNC CHAIRMAN MICHAEL STEELE: State party chairs are in DC this week, sitting down to plot midterm strategy and finalize plans for the fall elections. Today, they'll take in a presentation Steele will give on the electoral battleground, followed by presentations from 2 potential WH'12 contenders -- ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich and Sen. John Thune (R-SD).

But members of the RNC are, still, quietly agitated with Steele's performance. The scandal surrounding a risque L.A. nightclub broke more than a month ago, but just last week Steele fired RNC finance director Rob Bickhart and his deputy, Debbie LeHardy, bringing in new blood just 6 months before voters head to the polls. That has some RNC members worried about Victory money earmarked for their state, and others worried that the story is haunting them for too long.

Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell believes his home state will elect a GOP senator next year even if ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) wins the party's primary -- a notion starkly at odds with that of top GOPers in DC and KY, including many close to McConnell.

"I think we'll be able to elect a Republican senator regardless of the outcome of the Republican primary," McConnell said on ABC News' Topline on Monday, when asked whether Paul would be able to hold the seat. "I think Kentucky's in a pretty Republican mood this year."

McConnell has taken the unusual step of publicly endorsing Sec/State Trey Grayson (R), who McConnell helped coax into the race to replace retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R). Though he only endorsed last week, McConnell's top aides have been quietly helping Grayson's struggling campaign.

GOPers with knowledge of McConnell's decision to endorse told Hotline OnCall the min. leader made his pick precisely because he is concerned that Paul cannot beat either LG Daniel Mongiardo (D) or AG Jack Conway (D), the leading contenders for the Dem nomination.

Meanwhile, McConnell lamented Sen. Bob Bennett's (R-UT) loss at the state party convention this weekend. Bennett is one of McConnell's most trusted friends and advisors, and McConnell called him an "outstanding conservative Republican senator."

UT "is the only state in America where you don't have a way to get on the ballot for the primaries unless you go through a convention process," McConnell said. "You have a system in Utah in which a lot of energetic, enthusiastic participants can determine, if they choose to, the nominees of the parties without a primary. So I'm not sure you ought to read too much into it."

McConnell predicted the winner of the GOP primary -- between businessman Tim Bridgewater and attorney Mike Lee -- would be elected in Nov.

Watch the interview here.

For political junkies, it's never too early to start thinking about one number: 270. While reapportionment following the '10 Census will impact the number of electoral votes held by several states, the '12 presidential landscape appears to show Dems with a decisive advantage over the GOP field.

Pres. Obama can except to have an electoral firewall of 248 electoral votes. That figure comes based on the number of states that voted for the Dem nominee in every election since and including '92. That election from 18 years ago measures an entire generation of votes, the genesis of modern day red states and blue states (with some obvious changes since then), and establishes trendlines over 5 presidential elections.

In all, 18 states and DC have voted Dem in each of the last 5 elections. While states like WI and PA are typically contested by the GOP every 4 years, the fact remains that in years that favor both Dems and GOPers, Dems have always found a way to win. Those states equal 242 electoral votes, taking the fallout from this year's Census and reapportionment into consideration.

Another 3 states supported the Democratic nominee four out of the last five times since '92: IA, NH and NM. They combine for 16 electoral votes. Though George W. Bush managed to pick each of them off once during his 2 elections, Pres. Obama won them all handily in '08, ranging from 54%-45% in NH to 54%-44% in IA and 57%-42% in NM.

Combining the firewall states with the second-tier "likely" states that backed the Dem nominee 4 out of the last 5 times, including in '08, Dems start off as heavy favorites in 21 states and DC. Those combined 258 electoral votes are barely shy of the 270 needed to win.

Dems have ample opportunities to search for the other 12 electoral votes needed to win. Both OH and NV voted Dem in '92, '96 and '08. The Buckeye State, with its 20 electoral votes (likely to fall to 18 after reapportionment) will always be competitive. But in '12 NV will take on new importance: The Silver State is expected to gain a House seat during this round of reapportionment, giving it 6 electoral votes -- enough to give Dems 264 electoral votes.

Statements from senators who will vote on Elena Kagan's SCOTUS nomination:

Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid: "President Obama has chosen a worthy nominee to replace Justice Stevens, a jurist who Americans have respected and admired for so many years. I am particularly pleased President Obama has chosen a nominee from outside the judicial monastery. I believe that through her confirmation process, Elena Kagan will demonstrate that her primary allegiance is to fairness, justice and the rule of law, not ideology. When Solicitor General Kagan is confirmed, the Supreme Court will have three sitting female Justices for the first time - a historic occurrence that is long overdue."

"Nevadans and all Americans want us to confirm a nominee who is not only immensely qualified, but also has an understanding of the real world impact the Court's rulings will have on the American people. They want a nominee who will stand up for average Americans and ensure they get a fair hearing even against the largest and wealthiest corporations. I am confident that once confirmed, Elena Kagan will work to ensure equal justice for all Americans.

"I was pleased with the manner in which Senators conducted themselves when Justice Sotomayor was confirmed last year, and I will work to ensure the same type of fair, respectful process for Elena Kagan."

Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell: I congratulate Elena Kagan on her nomination. As we did with Justice Sotomayor last year, Senate Republicans will treat Ms. Kagan fairly. She has been nominated for a lifetime appointment on the nation's highest court, and we will carefully review her brief litigation experience, as well as her judgment and her career in academia, both as a professor and as an administrator. Fulfilling our duty to advise and consent on a nomination to this office requires a thorough process, not a rush to judgment."

"The American people expect judges to apply the Constitution and laws of the United States fairly and impartially -- as they are written, not how they could have been written but were not. Even though the President who nominates them has personal policy preferences, judges must not be a rubberstamp for any administration. Judges must not walk into court with a preconceived idea of who should win. Their job is to apply the law 'without respect to persons,' as the judicial oath states; it is not to pick winners or losers."

"Senate Republicans will have a vigorous debate on the importance of this principle. And we will diligently review the record of Ms. Kagan to ensure that she shares this principle and that she possesses the requisite experience to serve on the Supreme Court."

After the jump, the rest of the Senate statements we've received today.

Just because Solicitor General Elena Kagan won one confirmation battle doesn't mean she's a sure thing the second time around, according to the highest-ranking GOPer who voted for her last year.

In a statement today, Senate GOP whip Jon Kyl, one of 7 GOPers to vote to confirm her as the nation's top legal advocate, said his past support was not indicative of future plans.

"As I made clear when I supported her confirmation as Solicitor General, a temporary political appointment is far different than a lifetime appointment to the Supreme Court," Kyl said in a statement. "Every Senator has a constitutional duty to scrutinize judicial nominees, and I will take great care in examining her record to ensure that she possess the qualities the American people expect in our Supreme Court Justices."

But other GOP senators were more positive about Kagan's chances. WH chief of staff Rahm Emanuel called both Sens. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Susan Collins (R-ME) this morning to inform them of the choice, and both senators sounded positive in reacting to Kagan's nomination.

Snowe said Kagan "appears to present strong intellectual credentials," while Collins pointed to Kagan's "impressive resume of dedicated public service and strong legal credentials."

Kagan was confirmed by a 61-31 margin last March. Sens. Tom Coburn (R-OK), Judd Gregg (R-NH), Orrin Hatch (R-UT) and Richard Lugar (R-IN) joined Kyl, Snowe and Collins in voting for her nomination. Meanwhile, 3 Dems still in office did not vote on the nomination, while Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA), then caucusing with the GOP, voted against her.

Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), another GOPer who was absent for Kagan's first confirmation vote, was largely positive, praising Kagan's work as solicitor.

"I have been generally pleased with her job performance as Solicitor General, particularly regarding legal issues related to the War on Terror," Graham said in a statement.

Simply put: They couldn't.

Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) lost his bid for renomination on Saturday, a stunning rejection of one of the most conservative members of the upper chamber by a group of party activists still working to purify their ranks.

And the RNC didn't lift a finger because party rules prevented them from doing so.

To provide a candidate with financial or in-kind support, a state party must issue a so-called "Rule 11" letter. Rule 11 prevents the RNC from backing any candidate who doesn't have support from both the state party chair and the members of the national committee.

Bennett, ousted after he backed unpopular TARP bailouts and tried to work with Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) on bipartisan health care legislation, did not have support from all 3 UT delegates to the RNC.

He is likely to be the only GOP incumbent not to get a Rule 11 exemption this year. Even though they voted in favor of TARP in '08, Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) has already been renominated. Sen. Tom Coburn (R-OK) has no GOP opponents.

And, according to an RNC official, even Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) has a Rule 11 letter.

Then again, perhaps overt support from the GOP establishment isn't something an incumbent facing a primary challenge would want. After all, it didn't do much good for FL Gov. Charlie Crist (R) or Sen. Arlen Specter (before he became a Dem), and other prominent GOP recruits are facing conservative uprising in their own states.