GOP Won Hawaii By Focusing On Case
Rep.-elect Charles Djou's (R) upset win in HI 01 this weekend, and Dems' decision several weeks ago to abandon the race, was the result of a GOP decision to focus their fire on ex-Rep. Ed Case (D), who both parties saw as the stronger Dem running.
Party strategists on both sides acknoweldge Case had the name recognition and the political acumen to beat Djou in a one-on-one matchup. The DCCC quietly helped his campaign, while GOP-affiliated groups, most notably a group called Independent Women's Voice, focused their TV ads and mail campaigns entirely on Case, rather than on state Sen. Colleen Hanabusa (R).
The GOP's entire strategy hinged on treating the race as a one-on-one contest. Case had soft name-ID, according to partisan polling. His support came from independents and those who lean Dem. All the party needed to do was win over the soft GOPers to build a winning coalition.
In the end, the strategy of targeting Case accomplished its goal; Djou took 39% of the vote to Hanabusa's 31%. Case came in third place, with 28%.
But Dems face deeper problems even as they work to convince the media they can win back the district. The party tried to nudge Hanabusa out of the race, arguing she has a ceiling much lower than Case's.
Hanabusa's second-place finish will complicate those efforts. Local Dems are already angry with the national party for meddling, and with labor and the party establishment -- including Sens. Daniel Inouye (D) and Daniel Akaka (D) -- solidly behind Hanabusa, Case faces an uphill fight to win the Dem primary.
What's more, the Sept. 18 primary gives the eventual winner just 6 weeks to stock up on much-needed cash before a general election. Djou already has $200K in the bank for a general contest, giving him an important financial head start.
Dems are beginning to consider the need for some kind of compromise candidate. Hanabusa is still unlikely to win a general election, they believe, and Case will have trouble winning a primary. Though official behind-the-scenes talks have yet to begin, they are likely to start in earnest in the future.
Dems don't have a lot of time; the filing deadline is July 20. DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen is optimistic about his chances of winning the seat back this Nov., despite the fact that HI has never booted an incumbent. If Dems want to change that streak and back up their chairman's claims, they have to move fast to heal what is, at the moment, a splintered party.
The main reason the Dems have a splintered party is because the DCCC insists on backing the establishment candidate regardless of any other factor. It sounds like the whole article was made up of the chairman's talking points.
But the voters are making themselves heard, even though they've been lacking in enthusiasm up until now. So the DCCC should just get out of the way and let them have their say. The money they're wasting on losers like Blanche Lincoln, who has obstructed Obama's agenda as badly as any Republican, could be much better spent on the candidates who will vote the way they should. She's toast and Hanabusa will bring the HI seat back to the Dem side in September.
In spite of the DCCC.
Dems screwed this one up. No doubt.
I hope they get their act together for November. Might I suggest having only one Democrat running for election as a start?
This race as well as the Specter/Sestak and Lincoln/Halter races demonstrate why I don't donate to the Democratic Party. When will they ever learn?
I exuberantly send money to real Democrats. That's why I don't ever contribute to the DCCC anymore.
No more Blanche Lincolns, Joe Liebermans or any of the other dozens of corporate lackeys and lickspittles the DLC wants to shove down our throats.
The corporations already have ENOUGH representatives that they've bought and paid for without using MY money to get more.
This lovely bit of stenography illustrates why I never give the DCCC any money, even though I am a frequent contributor to Democrats. I give it to candidates directly. That way I can be sure it won't be going to ConservaDems and Blue Dogs like Case, or Heath Shuler, another great DCCC pick. The DCCC loves corporate Democrats and they don't care even slightly about whether those candidates support the party platform. Women are expendable, as is every other party constituent group, just so long as they keep that corporate money rolling in. In response to this perfidy, the base is starting to get serious about supporting primary challengers.
By the way, maybe a little reporting would be in order. It's possible he didn't get the most votes because he's not much of a Democrat. He crossed the aisle and voted with the GOP when he was in congress, on all sorts of issues that affect working families. Maybe Hawaii's Senators, and now the voters, should be listened to, and Chris Van Hollen should give up on trying to shove the candidate who got the most Democratic votes out of the primary.
Are you serious? I don't know who decided Case was the winning horse, but it wasn't actual Hawaii residents, thus our pique with the DCCC. We knew Hanabusa would beat Case but we had to listen to democratic operatives telling everyone that Case was the winner and only candidate who could defeat Djou. Everyone I know is for Hanabusa, her signs outnumber Case in almost every neighborhood, and the most likely Hanabusa voters are largely made up of a group that doesn't like to say who they'll vote for. We Hawaii residents knew that, the dems from the mainland didn't and so they pushed a loser, thus handing the election to the republicans. Great job and more reason to not give to the DCCC when they call.
i really enjoy going through your blog and i've been following from a distance but felt the need to comment to let you know. keep posting. is there a RSS feed? I just downloaded bloglines and want to add it in there.