Mollohan Defeated In WV

For the second time in four days, an incumbent has not only gone down to defeat, but has been trounced. Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV) was overwhelmed by state Sen. Mike Oliverio (D), 56-44% in his bid for re-nomination tonight.

Mollohan joins Sen. Bob Bennett (R) -- who lost his primary battle on 5/8 -- among incumbents this cycle who've been defeated.

Mollohan's loss was not unexpected, as polling late in the race -- by both campaigns -- showed Mollohan struggling. But the enormity of his defeat is sure to send yet another message to already weary incumbents that voters in this enviro are not cutting them any slack.

Mollohan lost 15 of the 20 counties in the sprawling Wheeling-based CD, and while Oliverio's base of Marion and Monongalia (Morgantown) Cos gave him a 2.5K-vote margin, that was just icing on the cake. With 75% of the vote counted, Oliverio held a 6.3K-vote lead.

During the campaign, Oliverio focused almost solely on Mollohan's past ethical troubles in his TV ads, and highlighted CREW's designation of Mollohan as one of the 15 most corrupt members of Congress.

Mollohan struck back and claimed DoJ cleared him of any wrongdoing. He also attacked Oliverio for participating in a group of conservative legislators that supports privatizing Social Security and outsourcing of U.S. jobs.

The health care law -- which the pro-life Mollohan voted for -- was also likely a factor in his defeat.

But the ethics charges against Mollohan were the ones that apparently resonated with voters. Oliverio's continual hammering on the issue, along with a strong anti-incumbent enviro, put real dents in Mollohan's armor -- dents that hadn't existed before this cycle. In fact, despite facing these ethics troubles for the better part of two cycles, Mollohan ran unopposed in '08 and took 64% against a GOPer in '06.

And Mollohan's rebuttal -- that Oliverio was too conservative -- may not have been the best ploy for a CD that gave John McCain 57%, and where many Dems consider themselves to be conservative. Indeed, Mollohan's attacks may have helped Oliverio in the general, as GOPers will not find him to be an easy target.

Last month, when asked whether he'd vote for Nancy Pelosi for Speaker, Oliverio told the Wheeling Intelligencer, "Hopefully, there will be a better candidate than Nancy Pelosi."

Oliverio hasn't said how he would've voted on the health care overhaul, but he did say he had "serious reservations" about the bill as it was making its way through the House. But he's strongly opposed to cap-and-trade. And in a state that's as dependent on coal as West Virginia, this is a popular position. Mollohan, meanwhile, was attacked for announcing his "no" vote on the bill at the last minute, and for not actively fighting against the bill.

For those reasons, Oliverio will likely be a tougher general election foe for GOPers than the tainted Mollohan would've been.

DCCC Chair Chris Van Hollen, meanwhile, thanked Mollohan for his service in a release, and added he's confident Oliverio will hold "this historically Democratic seat."

But GOPers will still have a very strong pickup opportunity in this CD, as they managed to get their preferred nominee -- '96 GOV candidate/ex-WV GOP Chair David McKinley (R) -- out of a nasty primary. He won the six-way battle with 36%, fighting off upstart businessman Mac Warner (R) and ex-state Sen. Sarah Minear (R), who took 25 and 22%, respectively.

Minear and McKinley both funded a large portion of their campaigns, and spent the early part of the race lobbing attacks back-and-forth over past votes in the legislature.

But while those two fought, Warner -- a favorite of some in the Tea Party -- managed to quietly sneak into contention. Minear and McKinley adjusted their campaigns accordingly, and spent the final week attacking Warner for tax liens that were placed on his family business.

McKinley has the personal cash to make this a very strong pickup opportunity for GOPers, and strategists believe they have plenty to criticize from Oliverio's long legislative record. But the GOP will face an entirely different race against Oliverio than they would've had against Mollohan, as a generic "Nancy Pelosi liberal" campaign won't work against this nominee.