Spratt Challenger Shows Good Poll
Rep. John Spratt (D-SC) faces the toughest challenge of his career, according to a new survey conducted for his GOP challenger, as party strategists say they are increasingly confident in their ability to knock off the chairman of the House Budget Committee.
The Public Opinion Strategies (R) poll conducted for state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R), obtained by Hotline OnCall, surveyed 400 likely voters between May 17-18 for a margin of error of +/- 5.3%. Spratt and Mulvaney were tested against each other.
GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUP Spratt 43% (-5 from last, 10/09) Mulvaney 41 (+6)
The GOP's pressure on Spratt has helped push his personal ratings down. A total of 42% see him favorably, down 9 points from the fall, while his disapproval rating has risen 14 points, to 33%. Still, few know Mulvaney, whose fav/unfav rating stands at an anemic 13%/5%.
Spratt has been a reliable Dem vote this year, even though he represents a district Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) won in '08. Spratt voted for the stimulus measure, for cap and trade legislation and for the health care bill, giving Mulvaney ammunition for coming TV ads.
In the district, Pres. Obama's approval ratings aren't going to give Spratt a boost; just 45% approve of Obama's job performance, while 52% disapprove. Then again, that number is disproportionately high among African American voters, who make up 31% of the district. Obama's approval rating among persuadable voters -- largely white voters who gave McCain a 53%-46% win in the district -- is much worse.
GOPers say they expect Mulvaney to have a chance at beating the 14-term Spratt, provided Mulvaney can raise the money necessary to compete. At the end of the first quarter, Mulvaney had $206K in the bank, about a quarter of the $823K Spratt has on hand. Mulvaney has raised about $262K so far this year, meaning he'll need a few good quarters to catch up with Spratt's incumbent advantage.
If you want to help Mulvaney raise cash to beat Spratt go to this website and donate
I am surprised the numbers are even this close. My guess is that even more folks are just unwilling to admit that they won't vote for Spratt after all these years. But they won't. His base --- white conservative Democrats who vote GOP in national elections -- is gone. And with him voting for health care, the bailouts, and cap-and-trade, they are gone for good.
We are still hearing rumors down here that Spratt will get out of the race midstream (after the state primaries).
www.mulvaneyforcongress.com
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We here in the 5th District of SC are ready for the change! We have the hope! Pardon my use of others' campaign slogans, of those that hold empty promises! Mick Mulvaney is not one to hold empty promises, he is a real down to earth, about and for the people! You will all come to know him for what he stands for and who he stands for. It is for you and me and this beautiful state of South Carolina, in this free country of The United States of America!
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D'oh!
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