WV-01's Wild, Wonderful Primary

While there was tons of action in yesterday's IN, NC and OH primaries, next week's slate is pretty light -- with the exception of 2 monster contests in WV-01, where Rep. Alan Mollohan (D) is fighting for his political life.

Not only does Mollohan face a potentially lethal general election campaign in a CD that gave John McCain 57%, but he first must survive a primary against state Sen. Mike Oliverio (D). And right now that's looking like an even-money proposition.

Oliverio released a poll from mid-April showing the challenger leading Mollohan, 41%-33%. At that point, Oliverio had the benefit of airing 2 weeks of TV ads, including one in which he attacked Mollohan for being on CREW's top 15 most corrupt Members list.

Mollohan countered with his own poll, which showed him leading Oliverio 45%-36%. That's still not a strong position for an incumbent, but at least this poll showed him with the lead.

To strengthen his position, Mollohan began airing his own TV ad accusing Oliverio of belonging to a "right-wing group" that supports "devastating free-trade policies that send our steel jobs overseas." He also said the group -- the conservative American Legislative Exchange Council -- supported Social Security privatization.

In the early part of this campaign, Mollohan's TV ad buys had been relatively light. But in the closing weeks of the race he's kicked his attacks into gear. In a new TV ad, he accuses Oliverio of favoring cuts to mine safety budgets. With emotions still running high following the April Big Branch Mine explosion, this could be a particularly devastating attack.

Meanwhile, on the GOP side, the contest between ex-WV GOP Chair David McKinley (R), ex-state Sen. Sarah Minear (R) and businessman Mac Warner (R) appears to be setting up as a battle of geography -- and money.

McKinley and Minear have been flooding the airwaves with TV ads purchased largely out of their own pockets. Minear has dumped over $542K of her own cash into the race, while McKinley has put in $250K. Warner has raised the least of all the candidates, but GOP polling reportedly shows him surging, possibly as a result of the infighting between the 2 top spenders.

One GOPer who's seen polling in the contest says McKinley owns the Wheeling TV market, but Warner has made inroads in the affordable Parkersburg and Clarksburg markets, largely as a result of the McKinley and Minear bash-fest. The Clarksburg market was thought to be Minear's base, but with Warner surging, this GOPer believes her only hope at this point is to go up on Clarksburg TV and try to topple Warner.

And that appears to be happening. Another source notes that the Clarksburg and Parkersburg will be flooded with Minear and McKinley TV ads in the next 6 days, and at least one candidate will be aiming for Warner.

Those new anti-Warner ads are likely to feature tax liens placed against Warner's family business, a story that The Hill broke Tuesday as Warner's surged in the polls.

Trading barbs isn't new in this race, though. Minear has attacked McKinley for supporting a tax reform bill -- while in the legislature in '85 -- that she alleges raised taxes on businesses by 30%. The Chamber of Commerce stepped in and said those attacks were baseless.

Minear, meanwhile, was accused of voting to extend a 21 cents-per-gallon gas tax through '07, even though the tax was supposed to drop 5 cents at the time.

McKinley is the party favorite (he's the only GOPer with "Young Gun" status), and if this indeed is a battle between Warner and McKinley, the GOP fave should prevail, given his cash advantage.

If McKinley is the nominee, this race will be one of the GOP's top pickup opportunities this fall, regardless of who emerges on the Dem side -- although GOPers would prefer to see a wounded Mollohan survive the rough-and-tumble primary. Either way, these primaries will certainly make up for an otherwise slow Tuesday next week.