June 2010

Dems have gleefully spent the day slamming House Min. Leader John Boehner for supporting an increase in the retirement age. But it turns out raising the retirement age has bipartisan support.

Boehner's office passes along a series of clips that show senior Dems supported lifting the retirement age too.

Those senior Dems include VP Joe Biden, who told the AP in '07 he was open to discussions about raising the cap.

House Maj. Whip James Clyburn's official website says raising the age can keep Social Security solvent. "With minor changes to the program such as raising the salary cap and raising the retirement age by one month every year, the program could become solvent for the next 75 years," Clyburn's website says.

Dems celebrated when House Min. Leader John Boehner compared financial regulatory reform to "killing an ant with a nuclear weapon." The majority, facing dire political straits, is racing to tag House GOPers as out of touch with average Americans, more in the pocket of Wall Street than Main Street.

Boehner's comments, made in an interview with the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review, follow in the footsteps of several controversial statements made by House GOPers in recent weeks. Rep. Tom Price (R-GA) called Pres. Obama's BP escrow account "Chicago shake-down politics," while Rep. Joe Barton's (R-TX) apology to BP -- and subsequent reversal -- embarrassed the GOP.

On Wednesday, Pres. Obama called Boehner out for his comments during a town hall meeting in Racine, WI. Obama: "I was stunned to hear the leader of the Republicans in the House say that financial reform was like using a nuclear weapon to target an ant," Obama said.

"He compared the financial crisis to an ant. The same financial crisis that led to the loss of nearly eight million jobs. The same crisis that cost people their homes and their lives savings," said Obama, who called Boehner "out of touch."

In a statement, Boehner fired back, characterizing Obama's remarks as "childish partisanship."

The battle between DailyKos and polling firm Research 2000, a day after Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas said a weekly poll the firm conducted for the liberal blog was "likely bunk," has evolved into a knock-down-drag-out legal dispute, suggesting that consumers of political surveys won't know for a long while which, if any, Research 2000 polls they can trust.

DailyKos and Moulitsas will likely file a lawsuit today in the Northern District of CA, according to their attorney, Adam Bonin. Meanwhile, Richard Beckler, an attorney representing Research 2000 and its president, Del Ali, is alleging that Daily Kos owes Research 2000 money.

Beckler has sent cease-and-desist letters to Moulitsas and FiveThirtyEight.com founder Nate Silver, requesting that they stop posting on their respective websites and Twitter feeds that some or all of R2K's polls were fabricated. Silver posted a copy of the letter he received on his blog.

In an interview with Hotline OnCall, Bonin said Daily Kos contacted Ali on June 14, requesting the raw data from the polls in question. Ali said he would make that available, according to Bonin, but has not done so. Despite the pending suit, Bonin is still urging Ali to disclose the data.

The NRCC raised eyebrows on Monday by taking sides in a contested primary, elevating one contender to the highest level of its recruiting program while leaving 2 other well-funded challengers behind.

Stephen Fincher (R), a farmer and gospel singer who bolted to a fast fundraising start, has been named a "Young Gun," the top tier of the NRCC's recruiting ladder. Top GOP leaders in DC have been impressed with Fincher's abilities and his story since the moment he entered the race for Rep. John Tanner's (D-TN) seat.

"Stephen's focus has always been about fighting for the people of Middle and West Tennessee," said Matt McCullough, Fincher's spokesperson. "Our campaign has been honored with the endorsements of several key Tea Party organizations in Tennessee, and Stephen has won every straw poll of local grassroots conservatives with at least 60% of the vote."

Fincher's start was so fast, in fact, that when Tanner dropped his re-election bid, GOPers credited their candidate with forcing Tanner out. But the open seat attracted new candidates, including 2 who have the chance to give Fincher a stiff challenge in the state's Aug. 5 primary.

Accusations that a pollster hired to conduct surveys for the liberal DailyKos website fabricated some data won't hurt founder Markos Moulitsas's book schedule, he said in an email today.

Kos's book, "American Taliban", is due out Sept. 1. And despite a few citations of their former pollster, Research 2000, he said the tome's overall point remains thanks to other pollsters.

"There isn't a single claim in the book that isn't backed up my multiple polling sources," Moulitsas wrote in an e-mail to Hotline OnCall. "In fact, PPP, Rasmussen, ABC News, Harris, Vanity Fair and 60 Minutes, and others have released data that verifies and supports every single assertion I make in the book."

"After this disaster unfolded, I rushed back to the manuscript to see if there was any collateral damage. Turns out the entire book has only two citations to Research 2000 polling, and both of those times, the results were backed up by additional numbers from other polling outfits. The first was backed up by the right-wing Rasmussen, the second by Pew," Moulitsas said.

The NRCC is spotlighting 16 new top recruits it hopes will make up an increasingly large freshman class in the 112th Congress.

Those candidates are the latest entrants to the roster of Young Guns, recruits who have met specific fundraising, volunteer recruiting and media relations benchmarks.

Some, like VA State Sen. Robert Hurt, running against Rep. Tom Perriello (D), and Corning Mayor Tom Reed (R), running for ex-Rep. Eric Massa's (D-NY) seat, are among the party's most highly-touted contenders. Others, like attorney Andy Barr (R), running against Rep. Ben Chandler (D-KY), and businessman Keith Fimian (R), running against Rep. Gerry Connolly (D-VA), are longer shots.

And some Young Guns have overcome other promising candidates already. State Sen. Randy Hultgren (R) beat out attorney Ethan Hastert (R) for the right to take on Rep. Bill Foster (D).

MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) is adding a stop to his first trip to SC, holding an unannounced luncheon with major donors at the invitation of a heavy-hitting money man, according to GOP sources.

Pawlenty attended the lunch, held in Columbia, in an effort to introduce himself to major donors in the state. The event was organized by John Rainey, a major supporter of George W. Bush, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) and SC Gov. Mark Sanford (R).

Rainey was a Pioneer for Bush's '00 campaign, meaning he raised more than $100K for Bush's first WH bid. Bush appointed Rainey to the U.S. Military Academy at West Point's Board of Visitors, a board on which he serves with heavyweight GOPers like Fred Malek and Karen Hughes.

A Pawlenty spokesperson would not discuss details of the lunch, insisting as always that Pawlenty is focused on the midterm elections.

House GOPers will make a push to audit the Federal Reserve in a last-ditch effort to stop financial regulatory reform legislation, leaning on a popular proposal from Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) to make their case.

The GOP will offer the Fed audit as a motion to recommit, the minority's last chance to alter a bill before final passage. A motion to recommit is subject only to an up-or-down vote, not to debate or amendments.

The regulatory reform measure does have an audit provision in the conference report, but it is limited to loans made by the Fed during the height of the economic crisis. Paul's bill would allow a total examination of the Fed's books.

Paul's legislation has 320 co-sponsors, including Dems as diverse as Reps. Jason Altmire (D-PA), a centrist, and Steve Cohen (D-TN), a liberal.

But it's unlikely to pass as a motion to recommit, which would send the conference committee back to the drawing board for a third time. House and Senate Dems reached agreement Tuesday night on a revamped package after Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) and Olympia Snowe (R-ME), 2 key GOPers who voted for the Senate version, said they could not vote for the first conference report. Negotiators ended up dropping a proposed $18B bank tax to help pay for the bill.

Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) faces a difficult contest against ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R), according to a new survey that gives the GOP hopes of contesting the Golden State for the first time in nearly 2 decades.

The Ipsos Public Affairs poll, conducted for Thompson Reuters, shows Boxer leading Fiorina, but by an anemic 45%-41% margin. That's within the survey's margin of error. What's more, any incumbent who dips under the 50% mark is viewed by professional pollsters as in electoral trouble.

Voters are highly pessimistic about the state of CA. Just 16% of adults -- and only 5% of independent voters -- say the state is headed in the right direction, while 78% say it's off on the wrong track. Fully 52% of voters said they were most worried about jobs and the economy, far outpacing any other issue on voters' minds.

Boxer has been under 50% in most legitimate polls over the last several months, but she is underperforming among members of her own party. Boxer's 45% is less than the 47% of voters who told pollsters they lean towards Dems to some degree.

Ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) faced her toughest challenge of the general election so far, holding her own in a wide-ranging interview with a prominent NV political analyst and explaining away some statements that have already found their way into attack ads.

Appearing on "Face to Face," a statewide public affairs program with journalist Jon Ralston, Angle defended her most controversial comments -- including assertions that those on unemployment are "spoiled," an assertion Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid has already used in ads.

"They're not spoiled. What has happened is the system of entitlement has caused us to have a spoilage with our ability to go out and get a job," Angle said. "We're making them make a choice between unemployment benefits and going back to work, and working up through the ranks of that job and actually building up a good wage again and building up some seniority in that job. And what we need to do is make that unemployment benefit go down, not just completely remove the safety net from them when they go out and go to work."

"There are jobs, but those jobs are entry-level jobs and they don't pay what a worker can make a living on," Angle said. "We should start to supplement with the unemployment benefit. But to just to give them an unemployment benefit and then say if you get a job you don't get unemployment anymore, that's really hard scrabble."

Watch the entire interview on the Las Vegas Sun's website.

Rep. Mark Kirk (R-IL) spent yesterday apologizing for misstatements he's made about his military service. His campaign will spend today trying to turn attention back to his rival, Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D).

Kirk is launching 2 new ads aimed at raising questions about Giannoulias's actions at his family's failed bank, and about Giannoulias's ties to BP.

"Alexi Giannoulias is only 34 years old, but what a 34 years it's been," says one ad, which rehashes old accusations that Giannoulias gave loans to convicted mobsters. Kirk also charges Giannoulias made bad investments during his time as state treasurer.

The second ad touts Kirk's role in standing against BP's plans to dump waste into Lake Michigan. Conversely, a Giannoulias aide is a former lobbyist for BP.

Good Wednesday morning. One of yesterday's obituaries for the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV) reminded us of a favorite quote he loved to use on the campaign trail: "West Virginia has always had four friends: God Almighty, Sears Roebuck, Carter's Liver Pills and Robert C. Byrd."

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics before the July 4 recess:

REP. BARNEY FRANK: The top Dem on the House Financial Services Committee, along with his partner, Sen. Chris Dodd (D-CT), scrambled to reopen conference negotiations over financial regulatory reform in an effort to win over GOP moderates. And by last night, conferees approved a revised package.

The new agreement strips $18B in taxes on large banks and instead takes money from TARP, effectively killing the program. Banks won't get off entirely free, though; they will have to pay higher premiums to the FDIC's insurance fund. Those changes could win votes from Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA), who said he couldn't support the new bank tax.

Negotiators are moving quickly to get the conference report to the House floor. The bill already has a 9 a.m. appointment with the House Rules Committee. And, further evidence of how hard Frank is working to get the bill passed: He canceled a scheduled appointment with the Christian Science Monitor this morning.

PRES. OBAMA: Obama travels to Racine, WI, today to refocus on a sagging economy that is still struggling to be classified as recovering. Though the Gulf oil spill is front and center on the admin's agenda, Obama and his team need to be concerned about leading economic indicators, which haven't been as healthy as they could be.

Ex-state Sen. Dino Rossi (R) has run in statewide races twice before, but sees his third try -- his first in a non-presidential year -- as a markedly different opportunity.

This time around, Rossi won't be running against a political headwind in the blue state where most voters did not support George W. Bush and Sen. John McCain (R). And despite those hurdles, he polled remarkably well; Rossi out-polled Bush by 3 points in '04 and McCain by more than 6 points in '08.

"This is the first time I've actually run in a non-presidential year," said Rossi in an interview with Hotline OnCall. "I never have before. I've always had to wear everybody's else's baggage."

Having entered the race in late May, Rossi left himself with a limited amount of time to campaign against favored incumbent Sen. Patty Murray (D), which may hamstring him as the race goes on. Rossi said he would focus on voters who have not made up their mind. "In the old adage, there are saints and sinners and those who can be saved. The saints are with us, the sinners are not. And the ones that can be saved are the ones we will be talking to," Rossi said.

The cement is hardening.

The latest Society for Human Resource Management/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll underscores how difficult it will be for members of Congress to dislodge deeply entrenched pessimism about the country's direction and Washington's performance as they face voters in Nov.

The latest poll, conducted with the Pew Research Center, shows a sour national mood and leaves the National Journal Political Confidence Index at -34, unchanged from the month before. The rating is particularly ominous for Dems, whose stewardship of majorities in Congress is on the line.

That score suggests that the sputtering economy, the unchecked oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, two wars and a rough-and-tumble campaign season continue to take a toll on the public's confidence in the government.

The static nature of this month's Index, coupled with similarly foul feelings toward the economy, suggest that people's attitudes are hardening and will be difficult to change.

Bill Clinton has been a huge political asset to Dems this year, but his latest endorsement stands in notable contrast to the establishment's wishes.

Clinton said today he will support ex-CO House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D), the insurgent challenger running against Sen. Michael Bennet (D).

"With your help, he'll win the primary and the general election. Andrew brings to this race both an extraordinary record of public service and an extraordinary capacity to lead," Clinton said in a statement today. "I believe that those assets, as well as his deep commitment to Colorado, give him the best chance to hold this seat in November. I support Andrew Romanoff, and I hope you will too."

Clinton said he first met Romanoff in '92, during his WH campaign, when Romanoff was a student at the Kennedy School of Government. Romanoff "led the effort to win a majority in the Colorado House of Representatives for the first time in 30 years, and to keep that majority for the first time in more than 40 years," Clinton said.

A series of focus groups of voters in 5 states conducted for the conservative non-profit group Resurgent Republic found that while independent voters have soured on Obama, they haven't abandoned him completely. However, independents who identified themselves as part of the Tea Party movement, have "turned the page" on the president said GOP pollster Glen Bolger.

These groups, held in Des Moines, IA, Cincinnati, OH, Cherry Hill, NJ, Little Rock, AR and Orlando, FL, were comprised of registered or self-identified independents who said they were undecided on the congressional ballot test.

Bolger, who conducted the Des Moines group of Tea Party independents, described them as "more frustrated than angry" but said they had no "optimism or hope for the future."

Moreover, write Resurgent Republic Directors Ed Gillespie, Whit Ayres and Leslie Sanchez, these voters are "entrenched in their belief that Pres. Obama is all style and no substance." When asked to describe what kind of car Obama would be, one man compared him to an Edsel, "something that had a lot of hype, but failed to live up to expectations."

VP Joe Biden on Monday accused Senate GOPers of holding their top members' votes hostage in exchange for ranking committee posts, assailing the GOP as sitting "on the sidelines" while the economy nearly collapsed.

"I know at least 7 [GOP] senators, who I will not name, but were made to make a commitment under threat of losing their chairmanships, if they did not support the leadership on every procedural vote," Biden said at a fundraiser Monday night.

"Every single thing we did, from the important to the not so important, required for the first time in modern American history, majority votes required 60 votes. All the sudden a majority became 60 instead of 50," the VP added, according to a pool report of the event.

Senate GOP sources refused to comment on Biden's assertions on the record, calling them absurd. Such arm-twisting routinely happens in the House, but it's much less common in the Senate, where an individual member has far greater power.

In a press conference today aimed at clearing the air surrounding his flailing campaign, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) said he "wasn't thinking" when he made several comments inflating his military record.

"I've made mistakes when characterizing certain aspects of my accomplishments and experiences," Kirk said. "I am not perfect, and I was careless. I will do better and make sure this never happens again."

Kirk, who was chased by reporters through a hotel kitchen last week, said he had not talked to the media lately because he had been "overbooked." Kirk promised to reveal his campaign schedule to the inquiring press from now on, according to NBC Chicago reporter Mary Ann Ahern.

He also tied his opponent, Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D), to the ongoing trial of ex-IL Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D). Giannoulias was subpoenaed this week to testify for the defense, although it is unlikely he will do so. Kirk said he is willing to place his resume next to Giannoulias', but will be careful from now on to be careful about his record.

Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas announced today he will file a lawsuit against MD-based pollster Research 2000, alleging that polls Research 2000 was conducting for the liberal blog were fabricated.

Moulitsas today published a report by three readers he describes as "statistics wizards" that he says shows "quite convincingly" that Research 2000 was manufacturing the results of weekly national polls.

"Based on the report of the statisticians, it's clear that we did not get what we paid for," Moulitsas wrote on his website today.

"We were defrauded by Research 2000, and while we don't know if some or all of the data was fabricated or manipulated beyond recognition, we know we can't trust it. Meanwhile, Research 2000 has refused to offer any explanation."

The Supreme Court on Tuesday declined to hear a challenge to a ban on soft money, upholding a key element of campaign finance law and giving reform advocates a rare win.

In the case, RNC v. FEC, the RNC and several affiliate groups argued political parties should be allowed to raise and spend unlimited "soft" money contributions for purposes other than influencing national elections.

The RNC, the CA GOP and the San Diego Co. GOP had claimed they should be allowed to raise the money for redistricting, non-federal state elections
and grassroots advocacy. A 3-judge panel in DC Circuit Court ruled unanimously against the RNC earlier this year. Only 3 members of the Supreme Court wanted to hear the case; 4 members must approve for the Court to accept a case.

Many of the challenges the RNC brought up had been covered in McConnell v. FEC, an '03 case in which most of the Bipartisan Campaign Reform Act -- also called McCain-Feingold -- was upheld. That ruling held that a ban on soft money contributions was constitutional.

The conservative American Crossroads is up with new ads attacking Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, the latest purchase from an organization that has made Reid their top target.

The ad takes advantage of one factor that could haunt Reid during his race: His own verbal gaffes. In March, after monthly unemployment figures were released, Reid took to the Senate floor to declare it good news that 36K workers had lost their jobs.

"Today is a big day in America. Only -- only -- 36,000 people lost their jobs today, which is really good," Reid said on the Senate floor on March 5, referring to a jobs report for Feb.

GOPers derided the comment, and many predicted it would find its way into advertising slamming Reid. Now, American Crossroads is the first to use the comment; the ad asks whether Reid hasn't done enough already for NV, the state with the nation's highest unemployment rate.

Then again, Reid's team has a built-in comeback line: Their guy was wrong. As the economy has grown over the last several months, the Bureau of Labor Statistics has revised earlier counts upward. The latest figures show the economy gained 39K jobs in Feb., rather than lost 36K.

Still, NV's unemployment rate remains the highest in the nation, at 14% -- up from 11.5% a year ago. And while other states, including perpetually hard-hit MI, have seen unemployment rates drop, NV's has grown over the last several months.

American Crossroads is spending $120K on the new ad. The conservative organization, created in order to augment the national GOP's spending, is run by ex-Chamber of Commerce official Steven Law and ex-RNC chair Mike Duncan, with advisory assistance from Karl Rove and ex-RNC chair Ed Gillespie. Earlier this month, the group said it would target 11 SEN races around the country, though NV is the only state in which they've actually spent cash.

After the jump, check out American Crossroads' new ad as well as a video clip of Reid's floor remarks from March.

OH Gov. Ted Strickland (D) is maintaining his narrow lead over ex-Rep. John Kasich (R), according to a new Quinnipiac Univ. survey.

The poll shows Strickland leading Kasich 43%-38% -- virtually the same as Strickland's 44%-38% margin in a poll released April 29. Stickland has a tiny 40%-37% lead among independent voters.

Strickland's lead has hardly deviated, save one survey last Nov. that showed the 2 candidates tied. But that could change as an increasing number of OH voters get to know the GOPer; only 19% haven't heard enough about the incumbent to rate him, but fully 52% say they don't know enough about Kasich yet.

"Incumbents generally start a campaign with a name recognition edge and that is certainly the case in the governor's race. Sometimes as the challenger becomes better known the race narrows. That has yet to happen in this case," said Peter Brown, the assistant director of the Quinnipiac Univ. Polling Institute. Brown noted that the 52% who don't know enough about Kasich is down from 62% in the last survey.

Good Tuesday morning. The 2010 Tour de France will be Lance Armstrong's last, he announced in a tweet yesterday. Here's hoping he makes it 2 steps higher on the podium than he did last year.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

REP. MARK KIRK: No one could have asked for a candidate that provides as many opportunities as Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) -- his family bank was seized by the FDIC and the GOP will play up alleged ties to mob figures and Tony Rezko, to oversimplify a long and complicated story. Kirk's opponent in the Nov. midterms looked just wounded enough to help the GOPer in a pretty blue state.

But then Kirk committed his own sins. His military service record came into question, and several teachers associated with a school he claimed to have worked at say he didn't do the job he's been bragging about. Kirk hasn't been caught with a smoking gun, but he's caught the attention of the press -- most notably by avoiding them by rushing through a hotel kitchen after a downtown Chicago appearance.

Today, Kirk holds an event in Northbrook that looks specifically aimed at addressing questions that have come up in the last few weeks. Kirk will take questions from the press-only crowd. If he can move past allegations he's been less than truthful about his record, Kirk will still be the strong candidate he's always been. But if these questions stick around to dog him, the flawed Giannoulias would come out looking a lot better by comparison.

GOV. JOE MANCHIN: The WV Dem faces the tall task of picking a replacement for the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D), one who will serve for 2 and a half years until the '12 general election takes place. State law allows for a special election during a regular filing period, which takes place in Jan. of an election year, Sec/State Natalie Tennant (D) said yesterday (And reported here first).

Which of these members of Dem leadership is running for re-election in a libertarian-leaning Mountain West state, and which one isn't up for re-election in an overwhelmingly blue state until '14?

Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, reacting to today's McDonald v. Chicago Supreme Court decision:

"With today's ruling, the U.S. Supreme Court has helped ensure that the 2nd Amendment rights of Americans will be protected in all corners of our country. The right to bear arms is one of the essential freedoms on which our country was founded. I am pleased that the high court has taken steps in both the Heller and McDonald cases to guarantee this fundamental right. I supported individual gun rights in a bipartisan congressional amicus brief to the court, and I am glad they agreed with my position."

Senate Maj. Whip Dick Durbin:

"Much will be made of the Supreme Court's finding today that Americans have the right to own a gun for self-defense anywhere they live. But the Court also found that the right to keep and bear arms is not an unlimited right. In fact, the Court's decision gives local officials, like Chicago's Mayor Daley, the authority to establish common sense handgun regulations to protect public safety."

"We have an obligation to keep gun laws on the books that are both consistent with the Second Amendment and consistent with our duties to protect our citizens from the deadly effects of gun violence. I will continue to work with Mayor Daley, Gov. Quinn and my colleagues in Washington to ensure that governments at all levels pursue reasonable and constitutional policies to regulate gun use and to prevent misuse."

Reid has always been to the right of most of the rest of the Dem Caucus on gun rights. He's been endorsed by the NRA in previous races, and earlier this year NRA executive VP Wayne LaPierre joined Reid at an NV gun range, calling the incumbent Dem a "true champion" of the Second Amendment.

The U.S. will aim to begin manned missions beyond the moon by 2025, with a planned round-trip to Mars the following decade, the WH announced Monday.

"Our sights [are] set ultimately on Mars and beyond," said Jim Kohlenberger, chief of staff at the WH Office of Science and Technology Policy.

What's more, Pres. Obama's new space policy lays out plans to extend the the life of the International Space Station for another decade and beyond, rather than sticking with plans to scrap the orbiting outpost in 5 years.

But aside from long-term plans, the WH's new space policy puts greater focus on building an international coalition, preventing disruptions in everyday life and building a viable commercial space industry. The new policy reflects the recognition, officials said, that the U.S. is no longer racing to beat an enemy to orbit.

"It's clear to us now that our opportunities and our responsibilities have changed," said Barry Pavel, the NSC's Senior Director for Defense Policy and Strategy. "With the growth of the global economy, there are an ever-increasing number of countries and organizations that are using space."

IL voters will have their pick of 2 flawed candidates this fall, with each contender spending more time fleshing out the other's weaknesses than offering their own platform.

In recent weeks, Rep. Mark Kirk (R) has been beset by revelations that he has exaggerated several biographical details. Aspects of his military service -- whether he served in combat zones, whether he received an award and whether he ran a Pentagon intelligence center -- are under fire, while others say they don't recall the teaching experience he claims.

It's gotten so bad that Kirk ducked through a hotel kitchen in Chicago rather than answer press questions after a public policy forum last week. Kirk has done a handful of interviews, including 2 editorial board meetings a little less than 4 weeks ago, but he's recently gone underground.

Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) isn't having a much easier campaign. Earlier this year, his family's bank, Broadway Bank, failed under the weight of a series of toxic assets and delinquent loans. GOPers made hay of Giannoulias's time as a vice president, but the story had quieted since Kirk's revelations cropped up.

The RNC is set to put the brakes on its WH'12 calendar today by approving a draft resolution that would alter the way in which states allocate presidential delegates.

A temporary delegate selection committee will meet via teleconference today to approve the final draft. A proposal will then go to the full RNC, which will take up the alterations at its Summer meeting in Kansas City in Aug.

The most dramatic shift to the GOP's presidential nominating process will simply be one of timing. The first contests -- those held in IA, NH, SC and NV -- will take place in Feb. '12, rather than Jan. Both parties expressed frustration after IA and NH moved their primaries up in response to pressure from other states during the WH'08 contest, forcing candidates and their staffers to campaign over the winter holidays.

But GOPers are making another subtle change that could shake up the '12 contest. The temporary delegate selection committee has proposed requiring any state that holds a nominating contest in March must award their delegates at least partly proportionally.

Never let it be said that the RGA is unsure of itself. A barrage of early ads slamming a third-party candidate has given the GOP a chance to win back an MA GOV seat that only a few months ago looked headed for another war between moderates and conservatives.

A new survey conducted for the Boston Globe by the UNH Survey Center shows Gov. Deval Patrick (D) leading health care corporation CEO Charlie Baker (R) by a 38%-31% margin. Treas. Tim Cahill (I) finishes a distant third, with 9%, while physician Jill Stein (G) takes 2% of the vote.

That's a dramatic drop for Cahill, the Dem-turned-independent who is running as the most conservative candidate in the field. The last time UNH surveyed the primary, in early Jan., Cahill's support stood at 23% -- good enough for second place and a 4-point lead over Baker.

Then, the RGA stepped in. Beginning in April, the committee ran $1M in ads blasting Cahill's record as treasurer. The RGA attacked Cahill for spending money on staff bonuses and office redecoration -- ads that Cahill insiders acknowledge have had a damaging impact on their candidate.

The Supreme Court has overturned Chicago's ban on handguns, ruling the prohibition violates the Second Amendment. It is the latest blow to gun control advocates before a Court that has issued more sweeping rulings on the Second Amendment than any other in U.S. history.

The 5-4 ruling, authored by Associate Justice Samuel Alito, overturns a 7th Circuit decision upholding gun bans in Chicago and Oak Park, a suburb. The 5 justices agreed the Second Amendment applies to state and local governments, as well as to federal territory.

It is the second time in recent years that the Court has given gun rights advocates a big win. In '08's District of Columbia v. Heller, the Court held that DC's gun ban was illegal, because the Second Amendment protects an individual's right to keep and bear arms. That ruling was the first in the Court's history to directly address the individual right to own a firearm.

Solicitor General Elena Kagan's confirmation hearings will continue on schedule, the Senate Judiciary Committee said today, kicking off even as senators mourn the passing of Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV).

In a statement issued this morning, Sen. Pat Leahy (D-VT), chairman of the Senate Judiciary Committee, reflected on Byrd's service, both to his state and to the upper chamber.

"No Senator came to care more about the Constitution or to be a more effective defender of our constitutional government than the senior Senator from West Virginia. He was a senator's senator," Leahy said.

"Others will speak of his records for time served in the Senate and in Congress and for the number of votes he cast. I know him as a mentor and a friend. I was honored to stand with him and fight against assaults on the Constitution and against an unnecessary and costly war in Iraq.," Leahy added. "He was a self-educated man who learned much throughout his life and had much to teach us all."

But, a Judiciary Committee spokeswoman said, Kagan's confirmation hearings are still scheduled for today. The committee will meet at 12:30 p.m., when Kagan will be escorted and introduced by Sens. John Kerry (D-MA) and Scott Brown (R-MA).

With Sen. Robert Byrd's (D-WV) passing this morning, his constituents are mourning the loss of their long-time champion. Someone new will soon fill Byrd's seat, but it will be impossible to replace a man who held his seat for 51 years.

WV law gives Gov. Joe Manchin (D) the power to appoint Byrd's replacement. If a vacancy occurs within 2 and a half years of the beginning of the next term, the governor appoints a replacement until that next election. But state law says an election must be called if a vacancy occurs more than 2 and a half years before a term expires. Byrd's term would have had 2 and a half years left as of next week -- July 3.

But a special election is unlikely. State law says Manchin's appointment will be valid "until a successor to the office has timely filed a certificate of candidacy, has been nominated at the primary election next following such timely filing and has thereafter been elected and qualified to fill the unexpired term."

The WV primary took place May 11, making it unlikely that a special election will take place this year. And odd-year elections, used in many states to pick local officials, are a rarity in WV. In recent years, voters went to the polls only in '05, when they voted on a constitutional amendment. No elections were held in '07, '03 or '01.

Good Monday morning. What a bummer of a way to start the week.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics this week:

SEN. ROBERT BYRD: The longest-serving member of Congress in American history has died at the age of 92. Byrd passed away early this morning after a brief illness. He had serious health problems in recent years, and he had been sent to the hospital for what his staff initially thought was heat exhaustion.

Byrd was a champion of WV, using his long-time perch on the Senate Appropriations Committee to steer billions of dollars back to his home state. He also served as the unofficial conscience of the Senate, advocating its equality with the executive branch; he authored a 4-volume set of books on the history of the Senate and its greatest speeches.

His passing will leave a hole in the upper chamber that won't easily be filled. But expect much of this week, which was supposed to be taken up with campaign finance and financial regulatory reform legislation, to be dedicated instead to tributes to Byrd's long life and unparalleled career. For obituaries of Byrd, check out the New York Times, Washington Post, Charleston Daily Mail, AP, Politico, Roll Call and The Hill.

ELENA KAGAN: Business marches on, and today Solicitor General Kagan is scheduled to head to Capitol Hill to kick off her confirmation hearings. Kagan, nominated May 10, has been quietly preparing for her hearings while GOPers comb through reams of documents related to her tenure in the Clinton admin and as dean of Harvard Law School.

Ex-CO LG Jane Norton (R) is promoting a hawkish stand on national security issues in an attempt to tap into a base vote that has gone overlooked amid a weak economy.

"Barack Obama's retreatist tactics in fighting the War on Terror suggest a President more concerned with political correctness than with defeating the radicals, jihadists and terrorists who hate America and would harm us and our allies," Norton writes on her website.

"America is voluntarily relinquishing its role as first among nations, instead choosing to concede and appease and acquiesce," she adds. "The liberals in Washington seem to have forgotten the nature of the threat against us. But we haven't. Fellow Coloradans, we must win the War on Terror."

Norton is facing a tough primary against Weld Co. DA Ken Buck (R), who has won support from the Tea Party movement. Buck won the state party convention, giving him the top line on the ballot and forcing Norton to petition her way into the primary.

And though polls show voters care most about jobs and the economy, Norton's team believes they benefit by changing the subject.

Every member of the Senate gets a single vote, but those votes come at vastly different prices. Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) won 6,955,728 votes in her '04 re-election bid. By contrast, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) took just 149,773 votes in her '04 bid for a full term.

Sen. Mike Crapo's (R-ID) second term cost his campaign account only $1,031,912, making his the cheapest Senate seat (It helps that Crapo was unopposed and won 99% of the vote). Sen. Hillary Clinton (D-NY), gearing up for a WH'08 bid, spent the most -- $34,358,255 -- to win a second term in '06 with 67% of the vote.

In fact, the average Senate seat cost $7,974,859 to win -- and 12 incumbents spent more than $15M to win their last race.

How many votes did your senator win? How much did it cost them? Check it out in our handy-dandy sortable chart, after the jump.

While some people were obsessed with the World Cup (You know who you are, folks who missed work on Wednesday), we at The Hotline were keeping our eyes on a still-evolving political landscape. Here's what we learned this week:

-- GOPers got their wish this week when SC state Reps. Nikki Haley (R) and Tim Scott (R) won GOV and House primaries, respectively. If they win the general election this fall -- they're both heavy favorites -- they will add some much-needed diversity to the party. And while party committees make their noise about staying out of competitive primaries, don't believe for a second that was actually the case in SC.

-- DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen took some heat this week for botching an initial approach to the DISCLOSE Act, and rightly so. The NRA carve-out was nakedly political, and Van Hollen misjudged the reaction from progressives. But he saved his bill -- and his reputation -- by getting it through by the narrowest of margins. Now, the pressure is on Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) to achieve the same result in a much more difficult venue.

-- Reps. Frank Kratovil (D-MD), Joe Donnelly (D-IN), Travis Childers (D-MS) and Kathy Dahlkemper (D-PA) all avoided irritating the Chamber of Commerce by voting against the DISCLOSE Act. But it's ironic that they voted against restricting spending by the Chamber and groups like American Crossroads -- the very groups that will target those Dems in GOP-leaning seats. Ultimately, those most likely to feel the brunt of 527 spending are the ones that just voted against the bill regulating it.

The results of "Super Tuesday" primaries earlier this month appear to have given the GOP a boost in a few races, particularly in SD, VA and AR. And in this week's updated House rankings, you'll see that reflected at the top and the bottom of our list.

One of the biggest winners was car dealer Scott Rigell (R), who released a post-primary poll showing him leading Rep. Glenn Nye (D) in VA 02. But Dem open seats in AR, as well as that of Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D) in SD, appear to be in added danger as well.

Bounces can disappear as fast as they came, so it'll be important for GOPers to maintain the momentum they gained coming out of these contests. If they do, they have a great shot at winning these seats in the fall.

Without further ado, this week's rankings:

1. TN 06: Open Seat (D) (Last Ranking: 1) -- Nothing new to report here, which is bad news for the little-known Dems in the race.

2. LA 03: Open Seat (D) (3) -- Ex-state House Speaker Hunt Downer (R) just announced his bid, but he's been rather aggressive in attacking Pres. Obama on the BP oil spill. He's not taking anything for granted and working hard to earn his frontrunner title. If FEC reports show he had a strong 2ndQ, this race will be nearly over.

3. LA 02: Anh (Joseph) Cao (R) (2) -- Cao may get a gift this cycle if reports prove true and 2 black independents get into the race. News surfaced this week that New Orleans Sewerage & Water Board Member Tommie Vassel and pastor Byron Clay were considering jumping in and challenging Cao and the Dem nominee (the frontrunner is state Rep. Cedric Richmond). If that does indeed happen, Cao would catch a much-needed break in this strongly Dem, and heavily African-American, CD. If Richmond is the nominee, the African-American vote could potentially be split among three candidates, allowing Cao to sneak through to victory.

Check out the rest of our top 10 most vulnerable seats after the jump.

Pres. Obama will keynote a fundraiser for MO Sec/State Robin Carnahan (D) early next month, Carnahan's campaign said yesterday.

Carnahan and Obama will appear together on July 8 in Kansas City, though other details about the event are still up in the air, the Kansas City Star reported.

That's a departure from Carnahan's earlier moves. Over the winter, when Obama visited MO -- a state he narrowly lost in '08 -- Carnahan just so happened to be in DC attending her own fundraisers. But Carnahan did attend an event at an ethanol plant earlier this year, the Star noted.

Rep. Roy Blunt (R), the likely GOP nominee who will face Carnahan in the race for Sen. Kit Bond's (R) seat this fall, will surely try to tie Obama and Carnahan together. The fundraising appearance will only ensure Blunt spokesman Rich Chrismer gets the chance to make the connection a little earlier.

Update: NRSC spokesperson Amber Marchand responds to news of Obama's visit: "It's not surprising that Robin Carnahan is finally embracing President Obama's assistance after she enthusiastically endorsed his costly spending agenda in Washington, including his failed stimulus debacle and unpopular health spending bill."

KY SEN's Rand Paul (R) and the states' long-feuding GOP senators, Min. Leader Mitch McConnell and Sen. Jim Bunning (R), have managed to find fresh unity as they seek to keep Bunning's seat in GOP hands.

Paul, a libertarian-leaning Tea Party favorite, left little doubt he is set to work closely with the GOP political establishment when he visited DC this week. He capped the trip with an NRSC fundraiser where he accepted fundraising help from nine GOP senators who backed the Troubled Asset Relief Program.

A senior GOP staffer involved in the visit stressed that Paul's preference for electoral success over ideological purity also came through in meetings with McConnell and the Senate GOP Steering Committee.

"He wants to win," the aide said. "This is not an ideological crusade. ... He wants to be in the Senate. That is a good thing, because Senate seats are hard to come by."

The staffer said Paul is approaching the fundraising and "rubber chicken" part of the campaign energetically.

Meet the Press hosts Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), Rep. Barbara Lee (D-CA), author Sebastian Junger, ret. Army Capt. Wes Moore, author Tom Ricks and ret. Gen. Barry McCaffrey.

Face the Nation hosts Sens. Patrick Leahy (D-VT), Jeff Sessions (R-AL) and Carl Levin (D-MI).

This Week hosts CIA Dir. Leon Panetta. The roundtable features Washington Post's Rajiv Chandrasekaran, New York Times' David Sanger, author Robin Wright and Washington Post's George Will.

Fox News Sunday hosts Sens. Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC), and ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R).

State of the Union hosts NRSC Chair John Cornyn and DSCC chair Bob Menendez.

After the jump, the rest of the weekend lineup.

In the wake of a loss in the AR SEN primary, the AFL-CIO is supporting another Dem primary candidate its members believe is more progressive than the alternative and more sympathetic to their causes, albeit one who trails in polls: Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D).

Bernero, the self-described "America's Angriest Mayor" for his staunch defense of fair trade over free trade agreements, will be on the receiving end of a union push that will include "an extensive ground campaign to reach as many of the 900,000 union workers and retirees possible" in MI, according to the Detroit Free Press.

The Detroit News reports that MI AFL-CIO president Mark Gaffney "laid out a strategy" that "includes everything from passing out leaflets at factory gates to door-to-door canvassing and calls." Unlike AR though, labor will be staying off the airwaves; Gaffney said it's Bernero's responsibility to "conduct" and "pay for" TV time.

Labor is backing Bernero over state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) for many of the same reasons they supported AR LG Bill Halter (D) and chastised Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR). Gaffney this week called Dillon a "very, very conservative Democrat," adding that he's "practically a Republican." Compare that to AR AFL-CIO pres. Alan Hughes saying in Feb., "A lot of our members feel like, who is Blanche Lincoln? Is she a Democrat or a Republican?"

Ex-Gov. John Kitzhaber (D) and businessman Chris Dudley (R) are tied, according to a new poll, as the popular former governor finds himself weighed down by his predecessor.

Kitzhaber and Dudley are tied at 41%, according to the survey published in the Portland Tribune. Pollster Tim Hibbitts, whose company Davis Hibbitts & Midghall Inc., conducted the poll, said Kitzhaber's struggles in the very blue state can be attributed to incumbent Gov. Ted Kulongoski (D).

"It's not surprising that Kitzhaber is struggling against Dudley. You've got a lot of people unhappy with government, 11 percent unemployment, and Kitzhaber belongs to the same party as the unpopular incumbent," Hibbitts told the Trib.

Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT) was so concerned about his bid for renomination that he asked DCCC chair man Chris Van Hollen for help in the final weeks before his primary race, a top Dem aide tells Hotline OnCall.

Matheson won the state Dem convention with just 55% of the vote, guaranteeing a runoff against liberal activist Claudia Wright (D). That narrow margin scared Matheson enough to seek help, and Van Hollen sent top aide Julie Merz to run Matheson's primary bid.

Merz runs a program for House district directors out of Van Hollen's member services operation. In '08, she ran ex-Rep. Jim Slattery's (D) ill-fated KS SEN bid, after working for Rep. Dennis Moore (D-KS) for years. She took a leave of absence for 5 weeks to head to UT to help Matheson's campaign.

As it turned out, Matheson fared better in the primary than he did at the convention. On Tuesday, Matheson beat Wright by a 68%-32% margin.

Bill Clinton has chosen ex-Houston Mayor Bill White (D) as the next candidate he's willing to support, raising money for his former aide in an email to supporters.

In the email, first reported by Politico, Clinton says TX voters "will get to choose between a proven, mainstream public servant, Bill White, and one of the most strident, divisive political figures in the nation," Gov. Rick Perry (R).

What will Clinton's endorsement mean in the race? Of late, Clinton has been credited with being a substantial, and successful, presence on the stump. He has helped Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) mount an unexpected come-from-behind win the in AR SEN Dem primary, and he campaigned with Rep. Mark Critz (D-PA) in a special election victory last month.

At first glance, there are similarities between the candidacies of White and Lincoln. Lincoln trailed in the late stages of her race, and White is playing from behind in the polls, but is within striking distance. White is also a moderate Dem.

Petitions used to get a proposition or initiative on the ballot are public record, the Supreme Court ruled Thursday, handing a win to supporters of a gay rights ballot measure in WA.

The 8-1 decision in Doe v. Reed held that disclosure of petitions do not violate the First Amendment rights of those who signed the documents. Opponents of the '09 ballot measure, designated Referendum 71, had sued WA Sec/State Sam Reed (R) to keep their names private.

Referendum 71 gave WA voters the chance to approve or reject a state law that extended the benefits of domestic partnerships, handing gay and lesbian couples the same rights as married couples. Opponents of the state law forced the referendum onto the ballot, but the measure was approved -- and thus, the law upheld -- by a 53%-47% margin.

Proponents asked that petitions be made public. Opponents of the law sued to keep petitions private, arguing they would be subject to harassment if their names and addresses -- both of which appear on petitions -- became public. The Court disagreed.

Good Friday morning. After all the flops and dives, Italy got what it deserves. As one Friend of Hotline tweeted, it's clear the Italian drama industry has "a bright future."

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics this weekend:

HOUSE AND SENATE NEGOTIATORS: Early this morning, conference committee appointees finished work on a mammoth overhaul of financial regulation, setting the stage for a vote early next week. House negotiators have the votes, while Senate Dems need to keep at least a few of the 4 GOPers who voted for the bill the first time around.

The final package includes a compromise over Sen. Blanche Lincoln's (D-AR) proposal to force large banks to spin off their derivatives arms, keeping Lincoln in the fold for the final vote but weakening the provision -- something key conservative Dems and several members of the NY delegation said would be key to their votes. Lincoln used the provision in her primary runoff win earlier this month, and the compromise won't help her narrative as much as the stronger language would have.

If and when the final version passes, it will be another big legislative win for Dems -- tacked on to a stimulus package, health care overhaul and a series of smaller new laws that will be attractive to base constituencies. And, with 4 1/2 months to go before Election Day, the financial regulatory reform bill will be something both unique and satisfying to Dems; Something that's actually popular with voters.

ANGELA MERKEL: Pres. Obama heads to Toronto today to kick off a weekend summit of G-20 leaders, and he's got quite the sales job to do. Europe, panicked over the Greek debt crisis, is in full-on austerity mode, proposing to cut back on spending, slashing benefits and raising taxes. Britain, Germany and others are taking extreme steps to reduce or eliminate their debt.

The House has passed a major overhaul of campaign finance rules, giving Dems hope that corporations will be dissuaded from spending vast amounts of unreported money in the midterm elections.

But concerns over the DISCLOSE Act's future remain as the bill heads to the Senate, where it faces an uncertain fate. Though Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid has promised floor time for the legislation before the Aug. recess, it is unclear whether Dems will have the 60 votes necessary to end debate and pass the bill.

The House version passed by a 219-206 margin, largely along party lines. Just 2 GOPers -- Reps. Joseph Cao (R-LA) and Mike Castle (R-DE) -- voted for the bill, while 36 Dems voted against. Last-minute changes cost Dems another GOPer who had cosponsored the bill, as Rep. Walter Jones (R-NC) voted against.

Dems have hailed the legislation as the response to Citizens United v. FEC, the Jan. Supreme Court decision that eviscerated significant portions of McCain-Feingold legislation. GOPers, meanwhile, have derided the bill as a halt on free speech, given its intentions to shame corporations into withholding money from election campaigns.

Dems had to overcome some of their own obstacles after the U.S. Chamber of Commerce voiced strong opposition, and after some members of the CBC expressed worry that the NAACP's relationships with state-based affiliates could suffer. In the end, 13 members of the CBC voted against the bill, along with another 23 largely conservative Blue Dog Dems.

Members of both parties on Capitol Hill have limited expectations for significant energy legislation this year, despite Pres. Obama's broadcast appeal from the Oval Office last week when he reviewed the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico.

According to the new National Journal Congressional Insiders poll, 56% of Dems predicted the enactment of a "modest bill," and another 23% said that nothing will be enacted. GOPers were even more negative about the legislative prospects for one of the Dems' top priorities: 73% predicted that nothing would be enacted and another 23% expected a modest bill.

The House passed major energy and climate-change legislation in June 2009, with "cap and trade" limits on carbon emissions. But the measure has become bogged down in the Senate, with major divisions among Dems and little if any GOP support.

In his June 15 address, Obama said that the country must reduce petroleum use to reduce the chances of future drilling disasters, and that it must curb fossil-fuels dependence to promote a clean-energy future.

But Dem Insiders said that Congress is not ready to step up. "Shockingly, the worst oil spill in America's history -- every four days in the Gulf leak an Exxon Valdez equivalent -- has failed to undermine the equally oily dealings of the oil, gas, and coal lobbies in Congress," one Insider said. Another added, "in this tough election year, it isn't likely that Members will be willing to take a tough vote on legislation that would enact real change."

House GOPers are promising to invest in their campaign committee for the first time in years, hoping to take full advantage of a national wave that will cost millions to surf.

The NRCC will receive more than $1.8M in member pledges over the next month, the first infusion of an effort aimed at bringing in $20M for the midterms.

House Min. Leader John Boehner makes up the bulk of the new pledges. Boehner has promised to fork over $1M to the NRCC, above and beyond the $755K he's already given.

Rep. Jeb Hensarling (R-TX) has also paid out big bucks, pledging $250K so far. Hensarling will have given $1M to the NRCC this cycle, according to a committee spokesperson. Reps. Ed Royce (R-CA) and Vern Buchanan (R-FL) also pledged to chip in $100K.

Ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) plans to be at the head of a Northeast GOP resurgence if elected to fill the seat vacated by Sen. Chris Dodd (D), she said in an interview with The Hotline on Wednesday.

McMahon pointed to Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) as an example of how the GOP has gained a foothold in New England, and contended that voters' concern about fiscal conservatism crosses party lines.

AG Dick Blumenthal (D), whom McMahon would face in Nov. if she wins the Aug. 10 primary, is a "career politician" who has never created jobs, she said. And jobs will be the defining issue in the race.

"He has sued people, and that's been his job," McMahon said. "It's very difficult to get Richard Blumenthal to take a stance. When he's asked on particular issues, he just won't take a stand. He just waffles back and forth."

"Dick Blumenthal has made clear where he stands, taking on the toughest fights for the people of Connecticut, often when no one else would, against some of the strongest, toughest, special interests," said Maura Downes, a Blumenthal spokesperson. "Dick doesn't back down, he doesn't give up and the people of Connecticut know they can count on him."

McMahon said Blumenthal's misstatements on his record of service in Vietnam "cracked the veneer" of the popular AG, and internal polls show her campaign is closing the gap between herself and the frontrunner. She argued Blumenthal's honesty would be a major issue in the race, although her campaign would mainly appeal to CT voters on economic issues and job creation.

News that Sen. David Vitter (R) employed a staffer with a long history of violent altercations and substance abuse may have serious consequences for the LA senator, who is running for re-election this year against Rep. Charlie Melancon (D).

Vitter legislative asst. Brent Furer, who worked on military and abortion issues in Vitter's DC office, resigned yesterday after his various legal troubles were reported by ABC News.

The story details Furer's '08 assault of an ex-girlfriend, accompanied by graphic pictures of her wounds, and also reports that Furer has been arrested multiple times for DWIs and cocaine possession. Furer has served no jail time for any of the incidents.

The fact that Furer worked on women's issues while assaulting the woman won't look good for Vitter, who often points to his work with groups aimed at curbing drunk driving and violence against women.

Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid's path to victory is paved with some of ex-NV Assemb. Sharron Angle's (R) more extreme statements. And, according to a new survey, some of the attacks Dems will use on her could be remarkably effective.

Just 9% of voters say they would be enthusiastic about a candidate who advocated for privatizing Social Security, while another 15% said they were comfortable with that stand. Fully 48% said they were "very uncomfortable," while another 18% said that position caused "some reservations."

Angle advocates for "free market alternatives" which need to be adopted "as the Social Security system is transitioned out." "Young workers must be encouraged to investigate personal retirement account options," Angle's website says.

Abolishing certain federal agencies, like the Department of Education, also gets low marks. 46% say they are very uncomfortable with that idea, while only 25% are enthusiastic or comfortable with that position.

The NRA will support AZ Gov. Jan Brewer's election bid, the group announced today, bypassing a member of the group's own board of directors.

Brewer is running for a full term this year after replacing Janet Napolitano (D), who left to serve in Pres. Obama's cabinet. One of Brewer's primary rivals is Owen "Buz" Mills (R), a member of the NRA's board.

Brewer received an A+ rating from the NRA, and Chris Cox, the group's chief lobbyist, called her "a champion and strong defender of the Second Amendment freedoms of law-abiding Arizona gun owners, hunters and sportsmen."

Andrew Arulanandam, a spokesman for the NRA, said the group's endorsement of Brewer shouldn't take away from Mills' record as a board member.

Ex-IA Gov. Terry Branstad (R) will run alongside state Sen. Kim Reynolds (R) this fall, he announced today, adding a conservative to a ticket that has given some on the right reason to hesitate.

Reynolds represents Osceola, just south of Des Moines. The 50 year old, first elected to the state Senate in '08, previously served in Branstad's admin, on the board of the state employees' retirement system.

She is seen as a social and fiscal conservative, something Branstad may need. Since winning the primary, Branstad has faced the prospect of facing a third party candidate in the general; conservatives who backed businessman Bob Vander Plaats (R) in the primary were pushing him to make an oustide bid.

Branstad's campaign also considered ex-Iowa State Univ. wrestling coach Jim Gibbons (R), who is running against Rep. Leonard Boswell (D); ex-state Sen. Jeff Lamberti (R); state Rep. Rod Roberts (R); and state GOP chair Matt Strawn for the post, the Des Moines Register reported.

Branstad will formally recommend Reynolds at the state GOP convention this weekend. Today, they will preview the new ticket at stops in Ankeny, Council Bluffs, Sioux City, Clear Lake, Dubuque, Davenport and Cedar Rapids.

Polls show Branstad leading Gov. Chet Culver (D) by wide margins. Culver has already launched the race's first negative ads, just days after Branstad won the GOP primary.

Ex-Rep. Rob Simmons (R) may have suspended his CT SEN bid, but ex-WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) still sees evidence that Simmons is pursuing the state's GOP nomination.

"It's hard to imagine why he's left his name on the ballot," McMahon said of Simmons, in an interview with The Hotline yesterday. "I think he's hoping that I will fail, and that there are some -- that there would be some opportunity for him to reenergize his campaign and get back in. I think the public may be starting to grow a little restless relative to that stand at this point."

Simmons began the campaign as the clear front-runner, leaping to a lead when he entered the race last March. But McMahon, who has spent at least $16M on her own campaign, vaulted ahead after running early TV ads. The last Quinnipiac Univ. poll, conducted earlier this month, showed McMahon leading Simmons by a 45%-29% margin among GOP primary voters.

With the wind out of his sails, Simmons suspended his campaign on May 25, just days after coming in second place at the state GOP convention. Simmons had said he would end his bid if he didn't win the convention, but after finishing just 7 points behind McMahon, he made early noises about continuing his campaign.

Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL) was impressed by Gen. Stanley McChrystal's performance, and the GOPer will neither criticize nor agree with Pres. Obama's decision to fire the country's top commander in Afghanistan.

"The president gets to make that decision," Sessions said in an interview with Sirius XM's POTUS channel. Asked directly whether it was the right decision, Sessions balked.

"I'll just say this: He has a right to make that decision. I'm not criticizing him. I do believe that Gen. [David] Petraeus is one of the finest generals we have, that we've ever had. We're lucky that he's available and able to fill that slot. It's a sad thing to see somebody who is so committed, as Gen. McChrystal is, to have that difficulty," Sessions said.

Good Thursday morning. Watch out, Ghana, you're next.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

DCCC CHAIR CHRIS VAN HOLLEN: Van Hollen, chief sponsor of major new campaign finance legislation, will try a second time to bring the DISCLOSE Act to the floor today after a week of placating, mollifying and soothing nervous and angry Dems. Van Hollen demonstrated his clout, twisting arms himself and bringing the WH to bear on members of the caucus.

Progressive Dems are still irritated with a carve-out that consoles the NRA. Blue Dog Dems are worried about taking a vote that will so anger the Chamber of Commerce just before an election -- especially when Senate passage isn't assured. And the CBC is concerned about how the NAACP fits into the new regulations. Dems now hope those groups have all been made sanguine after a week of heavy lobbying.

Time is ticking, though: With just a week left before July 4 recess, Dems will have just one legislative period leading up to the Aug. break. Passage through the House is one thing, but the Senate is something else. With just a few legislative weeks to go before the break, with financial regulatory reform, Elena Kagan's nomination and now campaign finance legislation on the docket, the calendar may be more crowded than the upper chamber can handle.

PRES. OBAMA: For 2 months, oil has spilled freely into the Gulf of Mexico, but despite his admin's sometimes-lackluster response, Obama's approval rating has not suffered. Until now. A new NBC/Wall Street Journal poll shows 45% approve of Obama's job performance and 48% disapprove -- a drop of 5 points and the first time Obama has been under water in the survey.

Ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) released her first negative TV ad yesterday, accusing AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D) of being a "failure" in every stage of his lengthy public service career.

The 60-second ad recaps Brown's many government positions, from his meteoric rise in the '60s to his unsuccessful '82 Senate bid to his grassroots WH'92 bid. The ad, which features era-appropriate psychedelic music, contains a '92 clip of Bill Clinton denigrating Brown's re-invention habit.

The ad is running statewide. Political professionals who have experience in CA say a statewide ad buy, run over a week's time, would cost at least $1.5M -- and that's only if the candidate runs an extremely limited ad buy. Otherwise, the cost could run well north of $2M, and very quickly.

Whitman's primary race against Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R) ended in a flurry of negative ads. Whitman strategists said afterward that the campaign would begin the general election with "warm and fuzzy" biographical ads defining Whitman as a proven business leader.

A negative ad, more than 4 months out from the general, means that this may become a very ugly race by Nov. 2. Brown has not gone on air yet, but his labor allies have already launched an ad slamming Whitman for her erratic voting record.

After the jump, Whitman's first negative ad.

As he continues to battle Gov. Chet Culver (D) in a race characterized by early negative ads, ex-Gov. Terry Branstad (R) also finds himself on the cusp of a decision that could be very influential come Nov.: His selection of an LG running mate.

Iowapolitics.com is reporting that Branstad will likely make his selection tomorrow. Names floated in recent reporting include '06 IA-03 nominee/ex-state Senate Pres. Jeff Lamberti (R), '10 IA-03 candidate/ex-IA State Univ. wrestling coach Jim Gibbons (R), state Sen. Kim Reynolds (R) and state Rep. Rod Roberts (R).

Perhaps most importantly, Roberts, the third-place finisher in this year's GOV primary, has the ability to make inroads with conservatives and ran against Branstad in the primary.

Branstad has found himself at odds with IA conservatives at times (though he has sought to bridge the gap, scoring an endorsement from ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and Iowa Christian Alliance Pres. Steve Scheffler). His LG selection could prove to be either an olive branch or the potential for further hostility.

For Rep. Chet Edwards (D-TX), the collapse of a deal that would have sent major college football programs in TX to the PAC-10 was an unparalleled success. To his GOP rival, businessman Bill Flores (R), it was an example of government excess.

Edwards, seeking an eleventh term in his sprawling Waco-based district, joined a group of local officials trying to make sure Baylor Univ. wasn't left out in the cold if the Big 12 Conference splintered. An original plan would have sent big schools like the Texas Longhorns and the Oklahoma Sooners to the PAC-10, leaving Baylor without a conference.

After a weekend of behind-the-scenes negotiating with TX officials, the major schools said they would refuse the PAC-10's offer and stick with the Big 12. PAC-10 commis. Larry Scott told the AP the deal went south because of a "tsunami of Texas political pressure from Texas A&M and Baylor."

But Flores said in a TV interview late last week he didn't believe Edwards had played a proper role. "The last thing you want is a candidate for federal office or an existing federal officeholder getting involved in college athletics," Flores said, according to the Waco Tribune.

Amid an avalanche of criticism and calls for his resignation, at least 2 prominent members of the House Armed Services Committee say Gen. Stanley McChrystal should keep his job as the top commander of American troops in Afghanistan.

In separate interviews, Reps. Adam Smith (D-WA) and Mac Thornberry (R-TX) each said McChrystal should keep his job despite comments top advisors made disparaging Pres. Obama, VP Joe Biden and Ambassador Karl Eikenberry.

"I would hope that [McChrystal] and Pres. Obama and the civilian folks could work out their differences, get back on the same page and he continues to do his job. But, that has yet to be seen," Smith said on Fox News' "America's Newsroom" this morning.

"We ought to be more concerned with generals who can win wars than we are over remarks such as these," Thornberry, the third-ranking GOPer on the panel, told the Amarillo Globe-News. "There is no question about whether McChrystal is challenging the president's authority or whether he'll follow orders."

Sen. Ron Wyden (D-OR) is leading his GOP challenger by a wide margin, according to a new survey conducted for the incumbent's campaign.

The survey shows Wyden leading law school professor Jim Huffman (R) by a 53%-23% margin. Green Party candidate Rick Staggenborg and Libertarian Marc Delphine each collect 2% support.

GOPers are aiming to pick up 6 open Dem seats, while Sens. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), Michael Bennet (D-CO) and Harry Reid (D-NV) struggle to win another term. Beyond those 9 seats, GOPers are treading on much more Dem-friendly territory held by Sens. Wyden, Patty Murray (D-WA) and Russ Feingold (D-WI).

The minority has recruited ex-state Sen. Dino Rossi (R) against Murray and businessman Ron Johnson (R) against Feingold. But Wyden looks more safe; as a measure of the race's low stature, the NRSC has published just 2 press releases on OR, both congratulating Huffman for his win.

The poll, conducted by Portland-based Grove Insight for Wyden's campaign, surveyed 600 likely voters between June 11-13 for a margin of error of +/- 4%.

Clark Co. Commission chair Rory Reid (D) has launched his first ad of the general election, but he conspicuously omits a factor that could play a key role in his campaign -- his last name.

The 30-second spot features a host of children touting Reid's plans to revamp the Silver State's school system. "My plans as governor are all about them, and when it comes to their education, I'll never, ever compromise," Reid says.

But he never says his own name, as NV political analyst Jon Ralson noted. When the candidate is identified, it's only as "Rory." The ad spotlights "Rory's education plan"; his website, Rory2010.com; and his logo, which only uses his first name.

Dems are concerned about Reid and his father, Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, appearing on the ballot at the same time. The elder Reid is unpopular throughout the state, and while he may be able to win re-election, that negativity could rub off on his son.

Rory Reid faces ex-federal Judge Brian Sandoval (R) in the general election. Recent polls have shown Sandoval leading by huge margins.

Rory Reid's first ad, "Smart Kids":

GOPers who supported George W. Bush's urgent request for money aimed at bailing out Wall Street have a troubled asset of their own: A vote for the TARP program has proven a sure political loser in a series of GOP primaries this year.

On Tuesday, Rep. Bob Inglis (R-SC) became the third GOPer to lose his bid for re-election, falling to Spartanburg CO. Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R) by a lopsided 72%-28% margin. Inglis, a 6-term incumbent from the Spartanburg-Greenville area, has voted against his party on several occasions, and a vote against the Iraq war surge in '07 rankled his constituents. His vote for TARP legislation, though, may have killed his career.

Also Tuesday, Rep. Gresham Barrett (R), once the front-runner in the race to succeed SC Gov. Mark Sanford (R), finished way behind state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) in a runoff election. Haley beat Barrett, who voted for TARP, by a 65%-35% margin.

Inglis' and Barrett's losses come a month after Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) lost his chance at winning a fourth term when he finished third at his state's GOP convention. Bennett was one of 34 GOP senators to vote in favor of TARP legislation in Oct. '08 -- a vote both his opponents used to campaign against him.

SC State Rep. Nikki Haley (R) acknowledged the role key endorsements played in her upstart campaign while downplaying her ground-breaking win in the SC GOP primary last night.

In an interview with MSNBC Wednesday morning, Haley said ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) had given her campaign a key boost. Palin appeared with Haley at a rally in Columbia, then in a TV ad as Haley's numbers surged.

"Gov. Palin has been fabulous at getting people to understand the power of their voice," Haley said on "Morning Joe." "She gave us the push we needed at the time."

Meanwhile, Haley downplayed the significant role race played in last night's contests. Haley would not only be SC's first woman governor, she would also be the first minority to hold the office; Haley is of Indian descent. Also last night, state Rep. Tim Scott (R) rolled to a primary win in the race to replace retiring Rep. Henry Brown (R), giving him the chance of becoming the first African American GOPer in Congress since Rep. J.C. Watts (R) left after the '02 elections.

Scott had support from conservative groups like Club for Growth and from Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA). Haley had quiet backing from the RGA and top GOP leaders around the country (Palin had an impact on Haley's behalf, but she gets less credit for helping Scott, whom she endorsed at the last minute).

"This is the start of a movement across the country," Haley said this morning. "We're not going to be associated with labels, we're going to be associated with good policy."

The House Rules Committee will meet today to formulate guidelines for a campaign finance bill aimed at increasing disclosure requirements as Dem leadership makes a final push toward getting the bill through the House.

The DISCLOSE Act is likely to hit the floor on Thursday, according to multiple Dem sources. But aides aren't certain it has the votes to pass yet. A series of meetings with key constituencies within the Dem caucus today, leadership aides hope, will be enough to clear the final hurdles.

It will be the second time Dems have tried to bring the bill to the floor. After negotiating a key compromise with the National Rifle Association last week, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi was forced to pull the bill amid outrage from progressives, while the Congressional Black Caucus and Blue Dog Dems raised their own concerns.

DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen, the bill's chief sponsor, has spent the week trying to salvage his legislation, thanks to several allies called in to give last-minute assistance.

Progressives concerned with a deal for the NRA were placated when campaign finance reform groups issued another statement backing the bill.

Blue Dogs, initially worried about the NRA, are happy a deal is still intact. What's more, conservative Dems were nervous the bill would pass the House, then die in the Senate. A letter earlier this week from Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), chairman of the Senate Rules Committee and the bill's lead sponsor in the upper chamber, in which the 2 pledged to bring the bill to the floor went a long way in mollifying Blue Dog concerns.

Good Wednesday morning. In this space last week, we predicted the US would beat Slovakia. A draw wasn't good enough, so we'll avoid making predictions about today's match against Algeria, which kicks off at 9:30 a.m. ET.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

MIKE LEE: The UT attorney, formerly an aide to ex-Gov. Jon Huntsman (R), was the surprise winner in last night's SEN primary, beating businessman Tim Bridgewater (R) by a thin 51%-49% margin. Bridgewater and Lee both outlasted Sen. Bob Bennett (R) at last month's state GOP convention. Lee, just 38 years old, is the odds-on favorite to win Bennett's seat in the heavily-GOP Beehive State this Nov.

It's the second time major Tea Party organizations and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce have found themselves on different sides of the same GOP primary fight. And, for the second time, Tea Party activists won. In KY, Tea Party activists backed Rand Paul (R) over Chamber-backed Sec/State Trey Grayson (R).

That's not to say the Chamber is any less effective, but in an era in which bailout legislation is a key talking point for some GOP challengers, it's a further hint that populism is alive and well among the GOP electorate. And GOPers looking for a candidate more conservative than Bennett also got their wish, at least based on his past work history: Lee has clerked twice for Justice Samuel Alito, one of the most conservative members of the Supreme Court.

GEN. STANLEY MCCHRYSTAL: Who could imagine a worse day -- McChrystal arrives in DC this morning straight from Afghanistan. He stops at the Pentagon to meet Def. Sec. Robert Gates, then heads to the WH for a personal meeting with Pres. Obama. Afterwards, he will attend a briefing on the Af-Pak situation with virtually everyone he and his aides insulted in a story that appeared yesterday in Rolling Stone.

Rep. Jim Matheson (D) easily turned back a challenge from retired teacher Claudia Wright (D), who sought to run to Matheson's left. The AP called the race with Matheson leading, 68-32%; 31% of precincts were reporting.

Matheson was on track to win nearly all of the CD's 16 counties, including the population base of Salt Lake Co., where Wright was expected to fare well in some of the county's liberal enclaves. Instead, Matheson took 64% there.

Wright's bid began to gain traction after Matheson voted in March against the health care overhaul. Wright loudly protested, and gained support a few days later at local caucuses from delegates. At the party convo in May, Wright held Matheson to a 55%-45% victory, short of the 60% he needed to avoid a runoff.

But those convo-goers represent the liberal grassroots of the party, and not necessarily the sentiment of the CD at large. Voters as a whole appear to approve of Matheson's generally moderate voting record.

Despite his reputation as a moderate -- Matheson is the 25th most conservative Dem, according to '09 NJ vote ratings -- he burnished his more-liberal credentials in the primary. He was able to tout his recent vote to repeal DADT, and also boasted of his environmental record in TV ads.

Wright went after Matheson on health care and the Gulf oil spill (she demanded he do more as a member of the Energy and Commerce Cmte), but in the end, Matheson's funding advantage and reputation was just too much to overcome. Matheson raised $1.1M for the race, which represented a 40-1 advantage over Wright. Through early June, Matheson still had over $1.1M in the bank, while Wright had just $6K. With those numbers, a Wright win would've been a huge upset.

Matheson now moves to the general to face ex-state Rep./ex-UT GOP official Morgan Philpot (R). Matheson will be very tough to beat, even in this strongly GOP CD. He works the sprawling CD hard, and will likely have a big funding advantage. Philpot will have to hope that Matheson's attempts to gain Dem support in the primary -- he featured Pres. Obama in his mailers and won Organizing for America's support -- will make him unpalatable to crossover GOP voters. But Matheson starts the race as the favorite.

Nat'l and local GOPers got their wish, as ex-TV sportscaster Harold Johnson (R) defeated embattled businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) 63-37% in today's runoff, with 66% of precincts reporting. Johnson is expected to give Rep. Larry Kissell (D) a tough race.

The same couldn't have been said for D'Annunzio. After he topped the Johnson in the primary a score of 37-33%, state and nat'l GOPers rushed to back Johnson in the runoff.

The cold shoulder for D'Annunzio began in late-May when NC GOP Chair Tom Fetzer called D'Annunzio "unfit for public office at any level." He was referring to copies of D'Annunzio's child-custody court records that portrayed him as a religious zealot, and also revealed previous burglarly and assault arrests, along with a previous drug habit.

D'Annunzio threatened to sue Fetzer for $5M if he didn't apologize for his comments. But Fetzer wasn't the only one who came out against D'Annunzio. All four of the defeated GOP challengers from the primary backed Johnson, and even some Tea Partiers that backed D'Annunzio began to fall away after reports of his past began to surface.

D'Annunzio didn't help his cause; in the latter stages of the race, as polling showed Johnson pulling ahead, he said it'd take a miracle to for him to win. He was right, but that couldn't have helped his GOTV operation. He later backtracked, but the damage to his campaign had already been done.

The GOP's rally around Johnson paid off, as D'Annunzio was unable to improve upon his 37% primary performance.

While Johnson took advantage of D'Annunzio's collapse, tonight's results show he still has some work to do. He won Mecklenburg Co. (Charlotte) easily, but he lost many of the rural areas that he'll need to do better in if he's going to beat Kissell.

Dems, meanwhile, moved quickly tonight to define Johnson as an "extreme" right-winger and questioned his understanding of "crucial issues." In a release, it sought to link D'Annunzio's support for privatizing Social Security and Medicare to Johnson, since Johnson said he'd "vote basically the same way" as his opponent.

"His admission that he shares the extreme views of his right wing primary opponent is downright scary and something that should give pause to voters," NC Dem Exec. Dir. Andrew Whalen said, "especially seniors who would suffer from Johnson's misguided plans to privatize Social Security and Medicare."

Kissell is not the strongest fundraiser, and has angered his base over his "no" votes on cap-and-trade and the health care law. But polling shows him to be in stronger position than many of his freshmen Dem colleagues. Still, if Johnson can put together a solid campaign operation and raise the necessary cash, there's no reason this seat shouldn't seriously be in play for GOPers.

Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D) has defeated ex-state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D) in the race against Sen. Richard Burr (R), according to the AP, handing Dems a setback in one of their few long-shot bids against an incumbent GOPer.

With 58% of precincts reporting, Marshall led by a 61%-39% margin. In the May 4 primary election, Marshall led a multi-candidate field with 36%; Cunningham finished second, with 27%.

In the runoff, Marshall had support from liberal organizations like MoveOn.org and Democracy for America, the political extension of ex-VT Gov. Howard Dean's WH'04 campaign.

Cunningham, meanwhile, had quiet support from the Dem establishment in DC. The DSCC worked hard to recruit Cunningham, an Iraq war veteran who initially turned down overtures to run.

But Dems quickly pivoted to Marshall. DSCC chair Bob Menendez called Marshall a "proven reformer" who could oust Burr.

"Tomorrow, we begin the general election and the choice for North Carolinians could not be any starker," Menendez said in a statement. "Voters will face a choice between a Democrat who has focused on creating jobs and the needs of North Carolina's middle class and a Republican who puts partisanship ahead of doing what's right."

But public polls show Burr is well ahead of Marshall -- and, for that matter, would have been well ahead of Cunningham. Just 2 years after Sen. Kay Hagan (D) stunned political observers by upsetting then-Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) and Pres. Obama won the Tarheel State, the GOP has experienced a resurgence nationally that is likely to aid Burr.

Rep. Bob Inglis (R-SC 04) became the third House Member to lose re-election this cycle, as he was unable to overcome a poor showing in the primary and was destroyed in his runoff tonight against Spartanburg Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R), 72-28%, with 68% of precincts reporting.

Gowdy led the primary, 39-28%, and considering that subpar performance a runoff win by Inglis would've been considered a miracle. If these %ages hold up, Inglis will have picked up no support between the primary and runoff.

Inglis' best hope was to collect as many votes out of Greenville -- his base and the most populous county in the CD -- as possible in order to counteract Gowdy's expected avalanche of support in Spartanburg Co. In the primary, Inglis won Greenville 32-27%, while Gowdy took a whopping 60-19% victory in Spartanburg. But Inglis lost Greenville Co. badly tonight, and was overwhelmed 82-18% in Spartanburg. There was no hope for a comeback with those numbers.

Inglis began the runoff attacking Gowdy's conservative credentials, especially his support for federal funding of a proposed man-made lake in the CD.

Inglis quickly changed course, though, and decided to attack Congress in his only TV ad of the runoff. When [Rep.] Joe Wilson [R-SC] said 'You lie!' he should have pointed at every Member of Congress," Inglis said in the ad. "Every Member of Congress knows we are headed to government bankruptcy, but they're afraid to tell you the truth." He called for "radical change" in DC, but didn't mention Gowdy.

But Inglis problem was that he found himself in trouble with voters in this conservative CD not primarily because of an "anti-incumbent" sentiment; instead, his moderate style appeared to turn off voters. Gowdy and other GOPers attacked him for his vote on TARP, and for voting against the Iraq surge. Inglis has also said humans contribute to climate change, and also told constituents to turn off Glenn Beck.

In Gowdy's only runoff TV ad, he stressed the need to "fight" for conservative beliefs, not just "change or talk," a veiled swipe at Inglis. Still, he did not attack Inglis directly in the runoff, a sign that he believed he was safely ahead.

Gowdy will face Beverage Air VP/veteran Paul Corden (D) in the general, but is the overwhelming favorite to win the seat.

SC-01 and SC-03 results after the jump.

State Rep. Nikki Haley (R) won a runoff election on Tuesday for her party's nomination to replace outgoing Gov. Mark Sanford (R).

Just 2 weeks after a primary election in which she came close to avoiding a runoff, Haley easily dispatched Rep. Gresham Barrett (R). In the primary, Haley won 49%, far outpacing Barrett's 22%. In Tuesday's runoff, with 61% of the vote reporting, Haley led by a 64%-36% margin.

Haley has already become a national celebrity; the media is fascinated by her ability to overcome late rumors of infidelity, while the national GOP establishment is intrigued by her Indian-American heritage.

At a moment when the GOP is struggling to diversify beyond white males, Haley's racial background gives them the chance to show off a second Indian-American contender with a potential future in national politics. If she wins in Nov., Haley would be the second governor of Indian descent, joining fellow GOPer Bobby Jindal (R), the governor of LA.

GOPers were quick to point out her victory, especially in a state where stories about race have been far more negative than positive. "Her success ushers in a new era of South Carolina politics, and represents a growing new generation of Republican leaders from across the country," said RGA executive director Nick Ayers.

A new survey conducted for ex-CO LG Jane Norton's SEN campaign shows she leads the GOP primary over Weld Co. DA Ken Buck, contradicting the most recent public polling. But even Norton's poll contains potentially troubling news for the one-time frontrunner.

Norton leads 39%-33%, according to her survey. That result stands in stark contrast to a public poll conducted for the Denver Post last week that showed Buck leading by double digits.

Despite the 6-point Norton lead among all likely voters in her own poll, among those who say they are most interested in voting, Buck closes to within a point, with respondents who rated themselves between 8-10 on a 10-point interest scale going for Norton, 37%-36%.

Among those GOP voters who have voted in a GOP primary before, Buck emerges as the leader, 41%-37%. Those who have never voted in a GOP primary broke for Norton, 40%-23%.

RNC chair Michael Steele defended Wall Street as the creators of wealth in a combative interview today while urging the Obama admin not to "demonize" and "demagogue" against a system that plunged the economy into recession.

In a stop on CNBC's "Squawk Box," Steele attacked government spending and the admin, all while urging more trust in Wall Street.

"Don't trust the federal government to get it done. We're here on Wall Street. We are on Main Street. Trust those people who built the economy in the past. The federal government has never created one job that is sustainable long term."

"Good luck telling the American people to trust Wall Street to create jobs," shot back host Erin Burnett.

"There are bad apples in any situation, in any scenario, no doubt about that," Steele said. "But you cannot demonize, demagogue against the entire system because the regulatory process broke down because individuals, both in government and the private sector, got greedy."

In their first head-to-head meeting this morning, financier/developer Jeff Greene (D) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) accused each other of responsibility for the mortgage crisis and of profiting from the misery of FL residents, all while arguing the other one attacked their family members first.

The 90 minute debate, sponsored by the Palm Beach Post, began hot and never cooled off. Greene demanded Meek ask Congress to investigate a real estate scandal involving Meek's mom, ex-Rep. Carrie Meek (D), along with earmarks Meek gave to a developer who contracted her as a consultant.

Meek denied that he was responsible for his mother's business affairs and had said he had never done anything improper. Meek then turned the conversation to Greene, who made millions on credit swaps while the financial market crashed. Meek said Greene brought about the destruction of our economy, which Greene called "fiction."

"On nights when Floridians went to bed praying that they could save their homes and save the equity in their homes," Meek said, "Mr. Greene was praying they'd lose their homes so he could profit and become a billionaire."

The candidates did agree on the need to develop safe nuclear power, their support for Israel, LGBT rights, immigration, abortion rights, social security and on eliminating Bush tax cuts. But they scuffled over drilling, with Greene placing some of the oil spill blame on Meek's failure to regulate oil companies while in Congress.

NV Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) is slowly turning her campaign into a professional operation, bringing on key staffers and consultants who will help her target Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid this fall.

A look at some of the firms and consultants she has on her team:

-- John Yob: The veteran GOP consultant, based in MI, is taking on a bigger role for the campaign. His title is senior advisor, but one source described his role more as chief strategist. Yob is connected in the conservative GOP sphere, and he ran ex-OH Sec/State Ken Blackwell's RNC chairman's race last year.

-- BrabenderCox: The Leesburg and Pittsburgh-based consulting firm has crafted messages for hundreds of GOP campaigns, including ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani's (R) WH'08 campaign. This year, the firm is also handling ads for Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) and PA AG Tom Corbett (R), running for GOV.

-- Prosper Group Corp.: The internet consulting firm is helping Angle harness her web-based fundraising, and it's working. Angle has pulled in $934K online since the primary, and a source says her offline fundraising has pushed that figure well over $1M.

-- Public Opinion Strategies: Angle's campaign is close to inking a deal with Gene Ulm, the well-regarded pollster at the mega-firm that handles dozens of top-tier clients every year. Ulm most recently handled the PA 12 race for the NRCC.

Meanwhile, the campaign is in ongoing talks with several top communications and finance staffers. A source in the Angle camp says the NRSC, which has taken a low public profile in dealing with Angle's campaign organization, recommended several names, including a former top aide to ex-Rep. Rob Simmons' (R) CT SEN bid.

Hotline editor Amy Walter writes:

This was supposed to be a column about how much I detested Twitter. How it's responsible for the death of thoughtful journalism and it's a celebration of our ADD culture.

But a funny thing happened as I prepared to rip into Twitter. I kinda got hooked.

Here's why:

• It's functional. I'm looking for information, fast. And I hope that folks are looking the same from me. A quick look at my list of those I'm following gives me an unfiltered look at the news, opinion and analysis coming from sources that I know and trust.

• It's fair. Journalists are now being held to the same standard that we demand of candidates and elected officials. They are forced to take the entirety of their lives, hopes, aspirations and thoughts and shove them into 30-second sound bites. Now, we journalists are being forced (have the opportunity?) to do the same thing.

• It's concise. At just 140 characters, you have no choice but to get right to the point. Sure, sometimes the "point" can be somewhat inane. But I find that most of the people I choose to follow have as little time for tweeting about the inconsequential details of their lives as I do. Twitter isn't a replacement for long-form writing or thoughtful analysis. But it is the place to summarize those pieces and boil them down to their essence. It's in the moment. Or, just ahead of the moment. Very little that we political journalists write is so complicated that it can't be explained in one sentence.

Read the whole column here, and be sure to follow Amy, The Hotline and your Hotline OnCall editor while you're at it.

IL Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) enjoys playing up his time as a professional hoopster, but his glory days in college didn't amount to much, according to NCAA statistics.

And Giannoulias, running to replace retiring Sen. Roland Burris (D-IL), will admit it: "I had a killer crossover that wasn't -- I tried to copy Tim Hardaway's, but it didn't really work," he told the Chicago Tribune in '08.

Giannoulias has long talked about his time on Boston Univ.'s basketball team, his first stop before joining a professional team in Greece. His first season with the team, the '96-'97 campaign, ended with a brief trip to the NCAA playoffs, where the 12th-seeded Terriers were quickly bounced by the 5th-seeded Tulsa Golden Hurricane.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), along with 2 colleagues, says comments attributed to Gen. Stanley McChrystal in a new story in Rolling Stone are "inappropriate" and cross a line in the traditional relationship between a president and the military.

"We have the highest respect for General McChrystal and honor his brave service and sacrifice to our nation. General McChrystal's comments, as reported in Rolling Stone, are inappropriate and inconsistent with the traditional relationship between Commander-in-Chief and the military," McCain said in a joint statement with Sens. Joe Lieberman (I-CT) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC).

In the article, published today, a McChrystal aide says the general who heads coalition forces in Afghanistan was disappointed by his first meeting with Pres. Obama. McChrystal thought Obama was "uncomfortable and intimidated" by a group of top military brass in an Oval Office meeting early in his term.

McChrystal has been summoned to the WH to explain his comments, according to news reports this morning. Already, the article has cost one Pentagon PR consultant his job.

But while some have likened McChrystal's comments to Gen. Douglas MacArthur, the Korean War general fired by Pres. Harry Truman, McCain, Lieberman and Graham stopped short of calling on McChrystal to step down or be fired.

"The decision concerning General McChrystal's future is a decision to be made by the President of the United States," the 3 said in the joint statement.

Read the whole Rolling Stone article here.

House Min. Leader John Boehner will support farm broadcaster Rick Crawford's (R) bid for a seat on the House Agriculture Committee if Crawford wins his race to replace retiring Rep. Marion Berry (D-AR), Boehner said in a statement today.

"Rick Crawford has my full support for a seat on the House Agriculture Committee. Rick's been in the agriculture business for years and understands the challenges facing farmers, ranchers, and rural communities," said Boehner, himself an alumnus of the committee.

Boehner's endorsement will give Crawford the chance to argue he would have an immediate impact when he gets to Congress. An NRCC release announcing the nod cited Berry's office, which estimates that more than 90% of the northeast AR district's jobs are tied to agriculture. It's tops in the country for rice production and in the top ten for cotton and soybean yields.

Crawford has an extensive background in the industry, too. A former news anchor and reporter on agriculture-based stations like KAIT and KFIN in Jonesboro, Crawford authored a column for a local business publication as well. He runs AgWatch Network, a farm news syndicate heard on 39 radio stations in 5 states.

Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid is reiterating his support for campaign finance legislation as the House works to pass the bill in time to impact the midterm elections.

In a letter to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and House Rules Committee chairman Bob Brady (D-PA), Reid and Senate Rules Committee chair Chuck Schumer promise to work on the bill once the House passes it.

"Currently, the Senate companion has 50 sponsors. We commit to working tirelessly for Senate consideration of the House-passed bill so it can be signed by the President in time to take effect for the 2010 elections," Reid and Schumer wrote.

Senate support is key to the bill's fate in the House. With the Chamber of Commerce gearing up to run ads in DC publications knocking the measure, nervous Dems facing re-election bids this year don't want to take a difficult vote if the bill is only going to die in the Senate. Reid and Schumer's pledge, Dems believe, will help some nervous members get off the fence and back the bill.

Schumer is the bill's chief sponsor in the Senate. Reid told Schumer and Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), the bill's House sponsor, he would bring the measure to the floor for a vote, but he did not commit to a timetable. Congress is in session for another week before the July 4 recess, and then for a limited amount of time before the Aug. recess.

Rep. Paul Hodes (D) is using his first paid advertising to take a shot at one of his leading rivals over a massive ponzi scheme that bilked NH investors while AG Kelly Ayotte (R) was in office.

Ayotte, the leading GOP contender in the race to replace retiring Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH), was called to testify last week over her knowledge -- or lack thereof -- of Financial Resources Mortgage. The Meredith, NH-based firm took $80M from NH investors over a decade of operation.

Compliants were filed with Ayotte's office, but the office took no action. What's more, an open records request for Ayotte's calendar and emails related to the failed firm was refused because email records had been deleted. The current AG, Michael Delaney, has faulted his office (before he took over) and 2 other state agencies.

Now, Hodes is making the issue political, using footage of Ayotte's testimony before a state legislative panel.

"It was the biggest ponzi scheme in New Hampshire history, and 44 times Kelly Ayotte ducked responsibility and claimed she didn't know," a narrator intones, before bringing up the erased emails. Ayotte ends the ad herself: "I can't fully answer that question," she said during her testimony.

Though Ayotte faces a tough primary against businessmen Bill Binnie (R) and Jim Bender (R) and attorney Ovide Lamontagne (R), she has focused most of her fire on Hodes. Ayotte's latest ad, launched earlier this month, labels Hodes a "Washington politician."

But FRM promises to be an enduring issue in the race. Both Binnie and Lamontagne have attacked Ayotte over her testimony, and Binnie, who is partially self-funding his campaign, is likely to have the resources to put out an attack ad on the issue before the Sept. 14 primary.

Update: "Paul Hodes is desperate. He has been in Congress for four years, and instead of telling voters what he has done, or what he would do in the Senate, he's falsely attacking Kelly Ayotte," said Jeff Grappone, Ayotte's communications director. "For Paul Hodes, desperate times clearly call for desperate measures."

After the jump, see Hodes' first ad slamming Ayotte, and Ayotte's latest shot at Hodes.

State House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) has a lead in the largely fluid Dem primary to replace Gov. Jennifer Granholm (R), while AG Mike Cox (R) has inched ahead of his GOP rivals, a comeback that caught even the pollsters by surprise.

The poll, conducted by EPIC-MRA for the Detroit Free Press and WXYZ-TV, surveyed 400 likely Dem and GOP primary voters between June 12-15, for margins of error in each field of +/- 4.9%. On the Dem side, Dillon was tested against Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D). On the GOP side, Cox, Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R), Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R), venture capitalist Rick Snyder (R) and state Sen. Tom George (R) were tested.

GOP PRIMARY MATCHUP      DEM PRIMARY MATCHUP
Cox         26%          Dillon      34%
Hoekstra    24           Bernero     24
Snyder      20
Bouchard    16
George       2

Cox's lead is statistically insignificant, but his momentum isn't. He's picked up 8 points since the last EPIC-MRA poll, conducted May 22-26, while Hoekstra has lost 6 points. Snyder gained 3 points from his last performance, while Bouchard's and George's support has been unchanged.

Good Tuesday morning. Voters are voting in primaries and runoffs in NC, SC, MS and UT, where key matchups this fall will be set today.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics this Tuesday:

REP. JIM MATHESON: The UT Dem, who represents the Salt Lake City area south to the AZ border and St. George, leads his Dem challenger -- activist Claudia Wright -- by a 52%-33% margin, unimpressive for an incumbent of his stature. Matheson looks like he's on the verge of becoming the latest Dem to win renomination with less than stellar numbers.

Also up today, UT voters pick a replacement GOP nominee after GOPers eliminated Sen. Bob Bennett's bid for another term at last month's conventions. Businessman Tim Bridgewater has support from the Chamber of Commerce, while attorney Mike Lee is a Tea Party favorite. The last time the 2 groups clashed, in KY over Rand Paul (R-Tea Party) and Trey Grayson (R-Chamber), Tea Partiers came out ahead. Polls here show divergent results.

And voters in NC will choose a Dem nominee to face off against Sen. Richard Burr (R) in perhaps the Dems' best shot against a GOP incumbent. But "best shot" is still a long shot; polls show Burr cruising against both Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D) and state Sen. Cal Cunningham (D). Polls also showed Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R) winning at this point in her bid, but Burr has made sure he actually visits home now and then, wisely learning from his former colleague's fate.

REP. BOB INGLIS: Just 2 weeks after coming in second place in his primary contest, Inglis is likely to lose his battle for another term today. He spent his time during the runoff election on positive messages, though Spartanburg Co. Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R) has hammered him on votes for TARP and other projects GOPers don't like.

Ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R-AZ) is against excessive government spending, but apparently teaching individuals to take advantage of government programs with the promise of free money is okay.

Just after his '06 re-election bid ended in defeat, Hayworth appeared in a video for the National Grants Conference, a program promising to teach viewers how to secure government grants. Hayworth is introduced as a former member of the House Ways and Means Committee.

"It's not free money. It's your money. It's money you've already surrendered to the government in terms of taxation, but the government has the chance -- and you have the chance -- to make an investment in yourself," Hayworth says of the grants. "It's something you should take advantage of."

Hayworth's message isn't likely to win a lot of fans among conservative voters fed up with too much government spending. And it plays into the narrative that Hayworth's primary opponent, Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), has been driving since Hayworth got in the race -- that Hayworth, as a member of the Ways and Means panel, was no fiscal conservative.

What's more, the company Hayworth stands up for doesn't have the best reputation. It's been criticized by local Better Business Bureaus for charging money for forms and information that are available free at local libraries, according to Arizona Republic writer Dan Nowicki, who first uncovered the video.

Hayworth's campaign has dismissed the video as something the McCain campaign had shopped around to local media. And, they say, McCain himself took a $9K contribution from National Grants Conference head Michael Milin during his '08 campaign. Still, reaction on the right -- where Hayworth's campaign has been a thing of curiosity, though many would love to see McCain booted from office -- was swift.

"How does Hayworth survive this?" the Weekly Standard's John McCormack asked in a blog post this afternoon.

After the jump, the video clip, courtesy of Talking Points Memo.

GOPers stung by a divisive intra-party battle last fall face the prospect of a split party, once again, in the race for an upstate NY House seat that should favor the minority.

Last Nov., Rep. Bill Owens (D) won Army Sec. John McHugh's seat with just 48.3% of the vote. Still, it was enough to win after Assemb. Dede Scozzafava (R) and accountant Doug Hoffman, running on the Conservative Party line, split the GOP vote.

After Hoffman attacked Scozzafava's moderate -- GOPers backing Hoffman labeled her liberal -- record, Scozzafava dropped out of the contest and backed Owens. Hoffman finished with 46% of the vote, while Scozzafava took 5.6%.

This time was supposed to be different. Unlike in Nov., when local party officials picked Scozzafava and inadvertently ignited activist backlash, this year's primary would pit 2 well-funded candidates against each other. A single winner was supposed to face Owens in the fall.

But, for the second straight time, third parties could have a serious impact on the race. Hoffman, running again, has the Conservative Party line a second time. And businessman Matt Doheny (R), who unsuccessfully sought the GOP nomination last year, has secured the Independence Party line -- which Scozzafava won last time around.

That means the winner of the state's GOP primary, to be held Sept. 14, may not get a clean shot at Owens. Hoffman has said he will stay in the race even if he doesn't win the GOP nomination, while a Doheny spokesperson refused to speculate on what the future would hold for his campaign.

The Obama admin is taking a greater role in pushing a key campaign finance bill in spite of a provision aimed at exempting the NRA and other groups from disclosure requirements, the WH said today, even as other key liberal organizations came out against the measure.

The DISCLOSE Act, aimed at addressing the Supreme Court's Jan. Citizens United v. FEC ruling by requiring additional campaign finance disclosures from outside organizations that can run political advertisements, ran into snags last week.

After chief sponsor Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) announced a deal with the NRA, liberals and the Congressional Black Caucus balked at backing a bill they once supported. A planned Friday vote was scrapped, though supporters hope to round up the votes this week.

Over the weekend, Van Hollen made dozens of calls trying to salvage the measure. Still, progressives like Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) and a hodge podge of gun control advocates and those pushing their own measures, including Reps. Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY), Mike Quigley (D-IL) and Donna Edwards (D-MD) present obstables.

Now, according to sources involved in legislative strategy, the WH has signaled it is fully engaged. On Monday, the OMB issued a Statement of Administration Policy (SAP) offering support. And backers are circulating a memo from pollster Joel Benenson, who headed Obama's polling during the WH'08 campaign, touting the bill's popular support.

The bill "is a necessary measure so that Americans will know who is trying to influence the Nation's elections," the WH said in the SAP. It "prevents those who should not interfere in the Nation's elections -- like corporations controlled by foreign interests -- from doing so. Unless strong new disclosure rules are established, the Supreme Court's decision in the Citizens United case will give corporations even greater power to influence elections."

GOP voters are more enthusiastic about casting their midterm election ballots than at any point in recent history, according to new figures from Gallup.

An average of 59% of GOPers and independents who lean toward the party say they are more enthusiastic about casting their ballots than usual, the data show -- the latest troubling sign for Dems facing a difficult electoral landscape in the fall.

That level of GOP enthusiasm is far higher than either party has experienced in the past 2 decades. In '94, when the GOP took control of Congress, just 42% of the party's voters said they were more enthusiastic about voting in midterms than usual, a 10-point advantage over Dems.

In '06, before Dems took over both gavels, 50% of the party's voters were more enthusiastic. That number was also 10 points higher than GOP voters' numbers.

This year, GOPers have a 15-point advantage in voter enthusiasm, a higher gap than ever. Painting a bleaker picture, a recent USA Today/Gallup survey showed 35% of Dems were more enthusiastic than normal, while 56% said they were less enthusiastic to vote.

The correlation between the party's enthusiasm and its wins that fall isn't perfect -- in '94 and '02, 2 cycles in which the GOP picked up 54 and 8 seats, respectively, GOP voters weren't more enthusiastic about voting. But Dems have seen a definite decline in enthusiasm, giving GOPers reason to be hopeful.

After the jump, enthusiasm trend lines, courtesy of Gallup.

As members of the Senate Judiciary Committee prepare for Supreme Court confirmation hearings set to begin next week, 2 GOPers will use the occasion to help their party raise money.

Sens. John Cornyn (R-TX) and Orrin Hatch (R-UT) will host a "Judiciary Roundtable" for up to 30 big donors in an event scheduled for tomorrow, according to an invite obtained by Hotline OnCall. Attendees will be asked for $1K contributions from their PACs or $500 in personal checks.

Cornyn and Hatch are both members of the Judiciary Committee -- Hatch, after Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL), is the second-ranking GOPer. They are also the top 2 officials at the NRSC, where Cornyn is chairman and Hatch is vice chair.

The event isn't expected to actually raise any new money. Members of the NRSC's Policy Board, who must contribute $15K per year, may attend 2 similar roundtables each year. The NRSC holds about one roundtable each month. This month, each registered attendee is a policy board member, meaning new checks won't necessarily be handed over.

"The NRSC holds roundtables each month with various members of the GOP conference on varying topics for those who are among the NRSC's strongest supporters," said NRSC spokesman Brian Walsh. "This is no different than what the other committees in both parties do."

For the first time this cycle, the NRSC has reported having more cash on hand than its Dem counterpart, spending frugally even as the DSCC has outraised its rival.

The NRSC raised just $3.6M in May, but spent only $2.5M. The committee ended the month with $18.1M in the bank.

Dems, meanwhile, raised $5M for May but spent $4.56M last month. The committee has $17.57M in the bank. Neither the DSCC nor the NRSC has any debt.

Both party committees have begun spending on infrastructure in several states, and the difference between the 2 is negligible in the long run. The DSCC has raised slightly more -- about $66.8M to the NRSC's $64.1M -- but it's the first time a GOP committee has more money physically in the bank than their Dem rivals.

"The NRSC continues to conserve our resources wisely and add to our cash on hand," NRSC executive director Rob Jesmer said in a statement. DSCC press secretary Deirdre Murphy said Dems would work to draw a distinction between the 2 parties "and raise the funds needed to maintain and expand our Democratic majority in the Senate."

The RNC is showing off its strategic plans by making early transfers to certain state parties, ensuring their affiliates have the hard dollars to compete this fall as both parties struggle to raise federal funds.

Last month, the RNC sent $627K in cash and equipment to various state parties, according to newly-filed FEC reports. That amount represents about a third of the $1.86M the GOP has doled out to states this year.

The RNC raised a total of $6.46M last month and spent $6.37M. They ended the month with $12.58M in the bank and $760K in debt. Communications director Doug Heye said the debt, largely owed to polling firms and fundraising consultants, has already been paid off.

The DNC, meanwhile, raised $6.6M in May and spent $7.24M. Dems have $14.49M in the bank, and they owe $3M to a bevy of polling and direct mail firms.

New filings show GOPers have a close eye on TX, which received $45K in federal assistance. OH, NV and MO where both parties will contest SEN, GOV and several House seats, received more $71K, $28K and $74K, respectively. And PA, another state with contests on all 3 levels, received a whopping $175K.

The RNC also played a big role in aiding Rep. Charles Djou (R-HI) in a special election held last month in Honolulu. Djou took 39.4% of the vote in the May 22 special election, for which the RNC transferred the state GOP $75K. The NRCC sent an additional $10K, while steering $150K in member contributions and $50K in PAC money to Djou's campaign.

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (I) still leads the race to replace retiring Sen. George LeMieux (R), nearly 2 months after a party switch many expected would cost him his chances.

The latest survey, conducted for the FL Chamber of Commerce Political Institute by Cherry Communications, shows Crist leading ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) 42%-31%-14%.

Political observers have speculated Crist's numbers would drop after his switch, as both parties' bases revert to backing their own candidates. But Crist has not trailed in a single poll; he was tied with Rubio in only one Rasmussen survey, and he has led by small margins in polls conducted by Ipsos Public Affairs, in May, and by Quinnipiac Univ., earlier this month.

Meek benefited from a brief boom when Crist left the GOP as strategists calculated the governor would take more GOP votes than Dem votes. And DSCC chair Bob Menendez told reporters earlier this month that he's "committed" to Meek. "I'm focused on having Democrats support Kendrick Meek," Menendez said at a briefing earlier this month.

But Meek isn't even guaranteed his party's nomination. A big-spending billionaire, Jeff Greene (D), has launched ads and closed the gap; the Quinnipiac survey earlier this month showed Meek leading the unknown Greene by a slim 29%-27% margin. (Anecdotally, one FL voter we talked to this weekend had only heard of Greene, not Meek).

Good Monday morning. Welcome to the first official day of summer, and the longest day of the year. Funny, we've always found the days get longer as Election Day approaches.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who can make a difference in politics this week:

SENATE GOPERS: They have a week left to dig through records related to Solicitor General Elena Kagan's time in the Clinton WH, and so far no major flaw in her record has come to light. Kagan's time at Harvard Law School, when she supported efforts to keep military recruiters from using some school resources, is still the GOP's main angle of attack.

Sen. Jeff Sessions (R-AL), the top GOPer on the Senate Judiciary Committee, has launched the most overt attacks on Kagan's record, especially over military recruiting at Harvard. Now, he says, his party doesn't have enough time to review the 200K documents related to Kagan's tenure in Bill Clinton's WH, which the Clinton library has released over the last 2 weeks.

It's pretty weak soup, even for a nomination that has been utterly boring, by DC standards. With confirmation hearings kicking off next Monday, Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell said yesterday on "Fox News Sunday" there is still a chance the GOP will filibuster Kagan's nomination. But with a significant number of GOPers making friendly noises about Kagan, what if they hold a filibuster and no one showed up?

REP. GRESHAM BARRETT: Barrett is in the least comfortable of political positions. After winning 22% of the vote in the June 8 primaries, Barrett made it into a runoff -- against a rising national star, in Assemb. Nikki Haley (R). Barrett continued his campaign, even though the 49% Haley won in the first round makes her an overwhelming front-runner in tomorrow's runoff.

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (I) has become adept at altering his policy positions to fit the current political circumstance. The media breathlessly reports every time Crist flip-flops on an issue. But the exact number of switches is hard to pin down, mostly because it's so hard to keep up with them.

Hotline OnCall has tallied up every major Crist position switch since his first statewide race, a '98 SEN bid against ex-Sen./ex-Gov. Bob Graham (D). Crist has definitely switched his publicly-stated opinion on 7 major issues, and there are 2 more that may have shifted, depending on how you look at it. There are 4 more issues where Crist's opinions may be open to change, but the exact history of his stances can't be traced or haven't been recorded.

Crist's opinions have largely traced his electoral path. He was more of a libertarian centrist in '98, but a tough FL GOV primary against CFO Tom Gallagher (R) in '06 led him to take more socially conservative positions as the campaign progressed. When Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) considered him for his VP short list in '08, Crist's positions changed to toe the GOP platform, and then edged further to the right during the early days of the '10 FL SEN primary against ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R). After he left the GOP in late Apr., observers have marveled at the speed of his shifts to the left.

Some of his switches are infamous and much derided by his opponents -- his recent veto of an ultrasound anti-abortion bill is just the latest iteration of a complicated abortion record that began in '98, when he was ostensibly pro-choice.

By the end of '06, he was advocating for FL to pass a bill similar to a SD ballot measure outlawing all abortions. Now he says that gov't shouldn't be involved in such "personal" decisions. Offshore drilling is another much-chronicled Crist epic -- he was against it, then he was for it when he was up for VP, now he's against it. Other clear-cut flip-flops include gay adoption (against, now for), Don't Ask, Don't Tell (for, now against), easing Cuban travel restrictions (against, now for), an independent FL redistricting commission (against, now for), and whether he would remain a member of, and a candidate within, his own party. That adds up to 7 total flips.

Rep. Jim Matheson (D-UT) leads his primary rival, but his margin is small enough to raise serious questions about his political health.

The Dan Jones and Associates poll, conducted June 12-17 for the Deseret News and KSL-TV, shows Matheson leading liberal activist Claudia Wright (D) by a 52%-33% margin.

More voters said Wright's ideology is "about right" than said the same of Matheson's -- by a 49%-40% margin. Fully 53% of Dem primary voters said Matheson isn't liberal enough.

Wright forced Matheson into a primary after keeping him under 60% at the UT Dem convention last month, after Matheson voted against health care reform earlier this year. But she hasn't had the money to mount a strong campaign. Wright has raised just $23K; Matheson, who has started mailing to Dem households, has more than $1M cash on hand.

Matheson's vote has him in trouble with Dem voters, but it was politically popular in his very conservative district. The seat, which stretches from the Salt Lake City area south to the AZ border and east to CO, gave Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) 58% of the vote in '08.

The NRCC outraised the DCCC in May, bringing in $5.4M to the DCCC's $5.1M last month.

The DCCC still maintains a large advantage in cash on hand, $28.6M to the NRCC's $12M.

The DCCC spent $3.8M last month -- when Rep. Mark Critz (D) beat businessman Tim Burns (R) in the special election to replace the late Rep. John Murtha (D) in PA.

It's the second month in a row the NRCC has outraised the DCCC. In April, the GOP's House committee raised $7.2M to Dems' $5.1M.

Another week gone, another week closer to Aug., the effective end of the legislative year. Here's what this week taught us:

-- Dems not only have an enthusiasm gap problem, they have a messaging problem. This week's NPR poll should be a wake-up for the party; it showed virtually every possible message matchup favors the GOP -- by double digits. But the news is so bad that the wake-up call may not be much good. At this point, Dems have to come up with new messages, and there's not a lot of time left to change the narrative.

-- Dems suffered a setback this week when the DISCLOSE Act encountered opposition from just about every interest group on Capitol Hill. Aimed at reducing the financial influence of corporations on this year's midterms, chief sponsor Chris Van Hollen thought he'd overcome the final hurdle by making a deal with the NRA. But progressives, Blue Dogs and the CBC cried foul, and Dem leadership had to pull the bill on Friday.

-- After chastising the Supreme Court in the now-infamous State of the Union showdown with Justice Samuel Alito, can Pres. Obama really back a campaign finance bill that's loaded up with backroom deals for special interest groups like the NRA?

-- The GOP, which overwhelmingly opposes the new disclosure rules, didn't have to lift a finger to derail the bill -- Dem infighting did it for them. Now, joked one GOP strategist, the minority party just has to figure out how to get Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX) to switch parties.

-- This is how bad Dems have it these days: Some party strategists really think Barton's apology, and statements from Reps. Tom Price (R-GA) and Michele Bachmann (R-MN), will sustain them through Election Day.

The NRCC's Young Guns program hasn't had the easiest time so far this year, but ex-US Attorney Tim Griffin (R) is one top party recruit who hasn't disappointed. Now, a new survey for his campaign shows him leading his Dem challenger by a wide margin.

Griffin leads state Sen. Joyce Elliott (D) by a 50%-34% margin, according to the internal survey of likely voters in the Little Rock-area district. The poll shows Elliott is much better known than Griffin; still, Griffin's big lead suggests long-time Dem voters are ready to vote for a GOPer.

Griffin also won backing from D.C. Morrison, the conservative Dem who pulled 13% in the Dem SEN primary. Morrison ran far to the right of both Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) and LG Bill Halter (D) and said he would endorse GOPers rather than Dems if he didn't win the primary.

The GOPer showed off the poll, and announced Morrison's endorsement, at the Little Rock Political Animals Club, Talk Business reported today. Elliott was in the crowd.

The survey, conducted June 13-14 by GOP firm OnMessage Inc., tested 400 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

Elliott, an African-American office-holder, narrowly won a runoff election on June 8 after leading the first round by a wider margin. About 21% of the district is made up of African American voters.

Griffin won his race without a runoff last month. The 2 are racing to replace Rep. Vic Snyder (D), who announced his retirement last year.

Meet the Press hosts MS Gov. Haley Barbour, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), Rep. Ed Markey (D-MA), BBC's Katty Kay, ex-Shell pres. John Hofmeister, and BP claims fund administrator Kenneth Feinberg.

Face the Nation hosts Sens. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), Bill Nelson (D-FL) and Richard Shelby (R-AL), and Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (R-LA).

This Week hosts WH CoS Rahm Emanuel and a roundtable discussion with FNC's Greta Van Susteren, Council on Foreign Relations' Richard Hass, NPR's Michel Martin, and Washington Post's George Will.

Fox News Sunday hosts Defense Sec. Robert Gates and Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell. The Power Player is Constituting America founder/actor Janine Turner.

State of the Union hosts Sens. Richard Lugar (R-IN), Dianne Feinstein (D-CA) and Joe Lieberman (I-CT).

Other weekend shows after the jump.

Gov. Jan Brewer (R) expressed outrage Thursday at the news that Sec/State Hillary Clinton had announced in an interview with foreign media that the Obama admin will be bringing a lawsuit against the state's controversial immigration law.

"If our own government intends to sue our state to prevent illegal immigration enforcement, the least it can do is inform us before it informs the citizens of another nation," Brewer said in a statement.

Despite Clinton's statement, the DoJ would not confirm the decision. "The Department continues to review the law," said DoJ spokesperson Tracy Schmaler, after Clinton's interview became public.

Thus, the waiting game continues. But putting aside Brewer's public anger for the moment, a lawsuit from the federal government, should it come to fruition, could end up working to her benefit in the AZ GOV race. Here are some reasons why:

States' Rights Narrative: In fighting a federal challenge, Brewer would find herself in the ultimate state-versus-federal battle that many GOP GOV candidates would relish. In addition to galvanizing Tea Party and other conservative voters on principle, a direct confrontation with the admin in a cycle where Washington is unpopular would play well among a wider voting bloc in the GOP-leaning state.

Retired teacher Claudia Wright (D) surprised some when she garnered 45% of convo delegates to force a primary against Rep. Jim Matheson (D). Wright has found success feeding off of liberal anger at Matheson's "no" vote on health care reform. She's also called on Matheson -- who sits on the Commerce and Energy Cmte. -- to act more aggressively on the Gulf oil spill.

Matheson, meanwhile, can point to his recent vote to repeal DADT in an effort to burnish his liberal credentials.

But Matheson works the CD hard, and in raising $1.1M for the race, has outraised Wright 40-1. He also has a huge $1.1M warchest, while Wright's is a puny $6K. So a Matheson loss would be a huge upset.

Early in the primary, some GOPers threatened to vote in the Dem primary for Wright -- whom they see as easier to beat than Matheson in the general. But that talk has faded, and Wright looks as though she'd need a big influx of GOP votes to help her against the better funded Matheson.

If the moderate-styled Matheson wins, ex-UT GOP official Morgan Philpot (R) will have an uphill battle. But against the liberal Wright, Philpot would be the immediate frontrunner. But right now, that doesn't appear to be likely.

NC-08: It's pretty simple: GOPers think they have a shot at Rep. Larry Kissell's (D) seat if ex-TV sportscaster Harold Johnson (R) wins the runoff. But if embattled businessman Tim D'Annunzio (R) -- who led the primary with 33% of the vote -- manages to secure the nod, then D'Annunzio's reported baggage will likely doom their chances.

Polling, however, shows Johnson with the late lead, and even D'Annunzio concedes he has little hope of winning.

D'Annunzio's runoff difficulties started in late-May, when NC GOP Chair Tom Fetzer called him "unfit for public office." He based this opinion on court records from D'Annunzio's divorce and child custody cases. The documents say D'Annunzio is a "self-described religious zealot" and include a psychiatric evaluation. Surely this would be fodder for Dems in the general.

Sensing this, almost the entire NC GOP establishment has lined up behind Johnson. He now counts as his supporters: ex-Rep. Robin Hayes (R), the NC Cong. delegation, and all three of his defeated primary challengers. All of these GOPers boarded the Johnson train after the primary. Even some Tea Party orgs have distanced themselves from D'Annunzio, whom they previously supported.

With all of this support, it's difficult to see D'Annunzio pulling this out.

SC-01: With just 2 weeks between the primary and runoff, there's precious little time for an underdog to stage a comeback. In that sense, it'll be very tough for late-Sen. Thurmond son/atty Paul Thurmond (R) to recover from his second-place showing to state Rep. Tim Scott (R) in the primary (Scott led, 31-16%). Both internal and public polling reportedly shows Scott with a strong lead as well.

SC state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) will take a second shot at winning her state's GOP GOV nomination Tuesday when she and Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) face off in a runoff.

Haley led the initial round by a wide margin, taking 49% of the vote in the June 8 primary. Barrett beat out 2 statewide elected officials to take 22%, and the second spot in the runoff.

National Dems have rushed to embrace Haley, who is Indian American, as one of their own. Though she didn't achieve the 50% required to win the runoff outright last week, the RGA called her performance a "clear choice" by SC GOP voters.

Some speculated that Haley's performance would force Barrett out of the race. But he has not only stayed in, he's also run ads hinting at rumors of personal improprieties. Barrett's first ad of the runoff featured a mock drill sergeant who said Barrett wouldn't "embarrass" the state, a reference to Gov. Mark Sanford (R) that could also be a dig at Haley.

And Barrett has allies, too. State legislators irritated by Haley's outsider career in Columbia are lining up with Barrett, and he's been endorsed by LG Andre Bauer (R), who finished fourth in the primary. AG Henry McMaster (R), who finished third, is backing Haley.

Private polling in the race showed Haley jumping out to a huge lead just after the primary, and Haley has stayed largely positive during the brief runoff sprint. She has made fewer campaign stops than Barrett, leaving the frustrated congressman to conclude that Haley is being put "back in her cage."

National GOPers are thrilled with the prospect of Haley becoming the new face of the GOP. If she does win big on Tuesday, some believe she will receive the kind of national attention already lavished on VA Gov. Bob McDonnell (R), Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) and ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) -- attention that will focus, prematurely, on her eventual chances to be a member of a national ticket.

State Rep. Nikki Haley (R) and Rep. Gresham Barrett (R) stuck to their talking points in a TV debate on Thursday, with Haley continued to promote her history as a business woman and Barrett tried to portray himself as a family man.

Haley reiterated her plan to eliminate small business income taxes while cleaning up state spending saying it's "not what you spend but how you spend." She also toted her ideas to bring in outside business into SC.

Barrett, on the other hand, stuck to his plan of increasing revenue through tax reform and filling 30K-40K state jobs with skilled workers. Barrett committed to a "no new tax" pledge while Haley skirted the issues instead asserting SC needs "to focus on how we spend."

Haley also tried to distance herself from Gov. Mark Sanford (R) while continuing to paint herself as an outsider within the political system.

"We are very different people. ...We have very different personalities," Haley said of Sanford. Still, when one moderator asked Haley, "You say you're not part of that fraternity," but don't you still have to "drink from their keg?" Haley replied: "My goal is to side with the people of the state, not the legislature."

Good Friday morning. We'd like to apologize for apologizing to Slovenia about the beating their team will take at 10 a.m. ET. We don't feel bad about it at all; the US needs a win today.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

REP. JOE BARTON: Barton's ill-timed remarks, apologizing for the treatment BP had undergone over the last 24 hours, overshadowed testimony yesterday from CEO Tony Hayward before a House panel yesterday. GOP leaders quickly distanced themselves from Barton's remarks, calling them "wrong" in an afternoon statement.

But Barton isn't the only GOPer to put his party on the wrong side of the oil spill. Both Reps. Tom Price (R-GA) and Michele Bachmann (R-MN) have blasted the proposed $20B escrow fund, and House leaders' statement didn't pull any punches with the WH either, calling the lack of solutions "unacceptable."

GOPers are walking a fine line: They have to -- and want to -- express frustration with the continued gusher, but in opposing the WH's escrow fund they risk appearing too beholden to big oil. Apologizing to BP, and politicizing the spill, gives Dems a chance to hit back against the GOP and politicize it themselves. Barton is likely to survive as ranking member of the House Energy and Commerce Committee, but not without inflicting momentary pain on his own party.

SEN. ORRIN HATCH: Hatch on Thursday introduced a new measure in the Senate that would repeal the individual mandate in health care legislation, the latest in what is expected to be a long list of GOP efforts to gut the bill. Those efforts are unlikely to be successful, at least until GOPers have control of both chambers and the WH.

Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) has endorsed Rep./ex-LG Mary Fallin (R-OK) in the race to succeed the term-limited Gov. Brad Henry (D).

In a posting on her Facebook page today, Palin called Fallin a "strong, smart conservative."

Recent polling indicates Fallin is the GOP frontrunner. She is opposed in the race by state Sen. Randy Brogdon (R) and two others. The primary in OK is 7/27.

Palin announced the endorsement of Fallin on her Facebook page in an entry titled "The Nature of Those Tough, Self-Sufficient Bears," in which she also announced her backing of Rep. Cathy McMorris Rodgers (R-WA) in WA-05 and author/columnist Star Parker (R) in CA-37.

How's this for throwing Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX) under the bus: House GOP leaders released a statement late Thursday repudiating Barton's apology earlier in the day, a carefully-worded missive that makes sure to hold BP accountable:

"The oil spill in the Gulf is this nation's largest natural disaster and stopping the leak and cleaning up the region is our top priority. Congressman Barton's statements this morning were wrong. BP itself has acknowledged that responsibility for the economic damages lies with them and has offered an initial pledge of $20 billion dollars for that purpose," said the joint statement from House Min. Leader John Boehner, House Min. Whip Eric Cantor and GOP Conference chair Mike Pence.

"The families and businesspeople in the Gulf region want leadership, accountability and action from BP and the Administration. It is unacceptable that, 59 days after this crisis began, no solution is forthcoming. Simply put, the American people want all of our resources, time and focus to be directed toward stopping the spill and cleaning up the mess."

Barton himself issued an apology for the apology at the same time.

"I apologize for using the term 'shakedown' with regard to yesterday's actions at the White House in my opening statement this morning, and I retract my apology to BP. As I told my colleagues yesterday and said again this morning, BP should bear the full financial responsibility for the accident on their lease in the Gulf of Mexico. BP should fully compensate those families and businesses that have been hurt by this accident. BP and the federal government need to stop the leak, clean up the damage, and take whatever steps necessary to prevent a similar accident in the future," Barton said. "I regret the impact that my statement this morning implied that BP should not pay for the consequences of their decisions and actions in this incident."

After Barton's comments, GOPers worked feverishly, and immediately, to distance themselves. Boehner's office forwarded a transcript of the GOP leader on Fox News just minutes after Barton's comments, an interview in which Boehner said he didn't agree with Barton's characterization. Boehner's office also forwarded Barton's statement later in the afternoon.

According to this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll, Elena Kagan's prospects for confirmation to the Supreme Court may be on the rise.

Both Dem Insiders and GOP Insiders were asked: "Would it be politically smart for Republicans to try to block the confirmation of Elena Kagan?" Not surprisingly, 96% of the 99 Dem Insiders who participated in the poll this week said, 'No.' But far more importantly, so did a whopping 76% of the 97 GOP Insiders who participated this week.

Moreover, Kagan's 76% score from Republican Insiders was more positive than the response they gave in May '09 when the Political Insiders Poll asked the identical question about Sonia Sotomayor.

Back then, 64% of the GOP Insiders said it wouldn't be politically smart for their party to block Sotomayor. This week, only 21% of the GOP Insiders said that the party should try to block Kagan and 3% said it depends on the information that comes to light in the confirmation process.

Partisan bickering between GOPers and Dems is just a fact of life these days, but on the main problem facing the majority, both sides agree, it's the high level of joblessness in the country.

In this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll, Dems and GOPers were asked whether the bigger problem for the Dems right now was high unemployment or government spending. Dem Insiders were almost unanimous with 91% of the 99 respondents choosing high joblessness as their biggest problem. Only 7% percent said government spending while 3% volunteered that both were equally big.

"In this election, weak job growth and high unemployment make base and swing voters pessimistic about the future and less likely to vote Democratic," warned one Dem Insider. "If you do not have a job it is hard to return incumbents to theirs," joked another.

And while concerns over the size of government and deficit spending are probably closer to many GOPers' hearts, a majority of the GOP Insiders, 54% of the 97 who responded, said that high unemployment was a bigger problem for Dems. Anther 28% said government spending, while an unusually high share of the GOP Insiders volunteered both equally.

"People are used to outrageous government spending, they are not used to outrageous unemployment," observed one GOP Insider. Said another, "For voters, spending is tomorrow's problem. Jobs are today's."

For complete results to this question and all the Insider comments, click here.

Both Dems and GOPers are walking a fine line as heightened tempers increase the political rhetoric over the oil spill spewing into the Gulf of Mexico, according to strategists contemplating the spill's fallout.

Rep. Joe Barton (R-TX) is the latest example of the dangers of politicizing the spill. On Thursday, Barton apologized to BP executive Tony Hayward for his treatment at the WH on Wednesday.

"I'm ashamed by what happened at the White House yesterday. I think it is a tragedy of the first proportion that a private corporation can be subjected to what I would characterize as a shakedown -- in this case, a $20 billion shakedown," Barton said. Barton called the escrow account BP has agreed to fund "a $20 billion slushfund that's unprecedented in our nation's history."

Dems used the comments to hammer the GOP as beholden to big oil, tying Barton's comments to others made by MS Gov. Haley Barbour (R) and Reps. Michele Bachmann (R-MN) and Tom Price (R-GA).

"With their opposition to lifting the liability cap on all oil companies, the $20 billion accountability fund and legislation to ensure that we are never put in this position again by our reliance on oil and oil companies, Republicans have systematically and inexorably taken the side of Big Oil," DNC press secretary Hari Sevugan said in an email to reporters.

GOPers were quick to recognize Barton's gaffe, and to put distance between themselves and the ranking member of the Energy and Commerce Committee.

"I have said since the beginning that BP ought to be responsible for all of this cleanup," House Min. Leader John Boehner said on Fox News just minutes later. "I don't know in what context Mr. Barton was making that remark, but I'm glad that BP has accepted responsibility for their actions."

Strategists on both sides warned of the danger of politicizing the issue. But both parties still see a value in making their case to voters, as well.

"The biggest danger is making this political. Everyone agrees we've got to have a clean energy future, and if we appear to be sympathetic to polluters, we'll find ourselves in a very defensive stance," said Lisa Camooso Miller, a former top RNC official who advises some energy companies.

Trailing in the polls and seeking to make up ground, Gov. Chet Culver (D) has unveiled his first TV ad of the general election, in which he targets his GOP rival. The 30-second spot goes directly after ex-Gov. Terry Branstad's (R) record as gov.

The narrators of the ad paint Branstad as a tax raiser, and cast his tenure in a negative light . "Terry Branstad, a past we can't repeat," concludes a narrator at the end of the spot.

"Culver is the governor who spent nearly $2.4 billion more than he took in," said Branstad mgr. Jeff Boeyink, in response to the ad. "Iowa voters will remember that it was Terry Branstad who brought open and honest accounting to state government."

Each candidate has tried to defend his tenure as governor, while simultaneously hitting the opponent's record in the state's top position -- and the back and forth has not been a zero-sum game so far; at present, Branstad appears to be comfortably ahead.

The challenge for Culver will be to not only convince voters that Branstad's tenure was a failure, but also to defend his own record during a rough economic period in the state. Brantad's burden will be to present his case as new and fresh, even as he touts his accomplishments from decades past.

It also looks like time is on Branstad's side. The claims Branstad has made has made about Culver's mismanagement of state government all hit on recent events that are more likely to be on the minds of voters come Nov.

Culver's ad, "Cooked":

Some of the best things going for Dems at the moment are the GOP candidates they will face in the fall. And as GOPers cap off competitive primaries, even some party strategists worry certain of their own nominees will cause problems down the road.

Dems have been most excited to run against ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R), the nominee running to replace outgoing Sen. Jim Bunning (R). Paul's statements about the Civil Rights Act of '64 and his medical license have come under scrutiny, and if Dems can make the race about Paul and his unpolished statements, the party has a chance to steal a seat in a deep red state.

Now, as GOPers face another primary in which a favored candidate is matched against a Tea Party-backed alternative, Dems are hoping that WA will become another KY. Indeed, it appears that ex-state Sen. Dino Rossi (R) has some trouble with the GOP base after losing a straw poll at last weekend's party convention by a huge margin to Tea Party-backed ex-Redskins player Clint Didier (R).

But WA is not KY, for a handful of reasons that benefit GOPers.

Didier is no Paul, for starters. Through the end of March, he had raised just $351K, and held only $151K in reserves. That's a far cry from the $2.7M Paul had raised in advance of his May primary. Paul had help from fans of his father, Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX); Didier met with the elder Paul this week while he was in DC, but he doesn't command the same attention among Paul's followers.

Almost 17 months after Pres. Obama took office, international enthusiasm is tempering slightly, according to a new survey of global attitudes.

Favorable opinions about the US skyrocketed last year, after George W. Bush left office. But after another year of difficult economic times, those positive attitudes are off their peaks, according to the Pew Global Attitudes Project survey.

Respondents in Britain, France and Germany still see the US in a largely favorable light (65%, 73% and 63%, respectively, say they view the US favorably). But those numbers are off the highs from '09, when 69% of Brits, 75% ofthe French and 64% of Germans viewed the US positively.

Arab countries are less likely to view the US favorably, as well. America's image in Egypt is down 10 points, to 17%; adults in Jordan and Indonesia are off 4 points, to 21% and 59%, respectively. Confidence in Pres. Obama is off as well, down 10 points each in Turkey, Egypt and Lebanon. The loss of confidence is especially pronounced among Shia Muslims; just 7% of Lebanese Shia have confidence in Obama, the poll shows.

House Dems, responding to critics angry over a provision that would allow the NRA to be exempt from disclosing membership roles, will allow more organizations to withhold their donor rosters, according to a top leadership aide.

DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen, lead sponsor of the DISCLOSE Act, told the Dem Caucus this morning the bill will allow long-standing organizations with more than 500K members to be exempt from disclosing their membership lists. An original carve-out, aimed primarily at mollifying the NRA, would have exempted only groups with memberships of more than 1M.

The deal with the NRA incensed House liberals, 15 of whom met with Van Hollen and House Speaker Nancy Pelosi yesterday to air their complaints. Several members, including Reps. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ) -- leader of the group of liberals -- Mike Quigley (D-IL) and Carolyn McCarthy (D-NY) have voiced strong reservations about the bill's NRA provisions.

The lower threshold was not made with any particular organization in mind, Van Hollen spokesman Doug Thornell said, and Van Hollen has not received assurances from liberals that the broader exemption would win their votes.

The bill is scheduled to head to the House Rules Committee today, and it is likely to make it to the House floor tomorrow.

Groups that avoid the new disclosure rules would still be held to certain standards other than size of the organization. They would have to have been operational for at least 10 years and would not be allowed to spend corporate donations on political ads.

Opponents of the legislation, which was crafted in response to Citizens United v. FEC, the Supreme Court decision handed down in Jan., have said they are likely to take the new bill back to court. Thornell said the package has been crafted with an eventual court challenge in mind.

Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D-TX) faces a tough re-election bid against an Hispanic GOPer the party is excited about, according to a new survey for attorney Quico Canseco's (R) campaign.

Rodriguez leads Canseco by a narrow 48%-45% margin, according to the survey, and the Dem doesn't have a lot of backup. House Speaker Nancy Pelosi and Pres. Obama both have overwhelmingly negative images, and GOPers lead the generic ballot test by 5 points.

Canseco is little-known, and he doesn't have a huge amount of cash to spend on the race; Canseco only had $28K in the bank as of March 31, just after the GOP primary and runoff.

But he has the ability to put at least some money into his own race. Canseco already owes himself $967K, all but $56K of which is from his unsuccessful '08 bid, when he lost in the primary.

National GOPers wanted Canseco to win the primary, and they've listed him as an "On the Radar" Young Gun contender -- the lowest of the 3 tiers. Still, he could give GOPers a chance in the sprawling district, which takes in the San Antonio suburbs in the east and the El Paso suburbs out west. Canseco will have to make inroads with Hispanic voters, who make up 65% of the district.

Rodriguez hasn't had the easiest time keeping his seat, which he won in '06 after serving in a differently-drawn district for 3 terms prior. Rodriguez took 54% in an '06 runoff against ex-Rep. Henry Bonilla (R) and 56% against Bexar Co. Commis. Lyle Larson (R) in '08.

The poll, conducted by GOP firm OnMessage Inc. for Canseco's campaign, tested 550 likely voters between May 11-13 for a margin of error of +/- 4.1%.

Update: "This poll shows that Rep. Rodriguez already has a lead in a swing district, but he is taking nothing for granted," said Jesse Ferguson, a DCCC spokesperson. "That's why he travels through the 20 counties of the district regularly and stays in touch with his constituents. He has broad support from families across the district because of his independent-minded approach and you can see this from his last election where he outperformed President Obama."

Ex-NV Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) is raising more than $100K a day online since winning the right to face Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, according to data kept on her website.

Since Angle won the nomination June 8, Angle has raised $843K online in just 8 days and change. That pace has helped her bring in new staff and begin to build the foundations of a statewide organization, something she lacked in the primary.

The cash is crucial to Angle's success. She had just $138K in the bank and a $170K debt as of her pre-primary report through May 19. Angle also raised big bucks from conservative groups and GOPers during a 4-day-long swing through NY and DC this week, a trip that included fundraisers with NRSC chair John Cornyn and Sen. John Thune (R-SD).

Still, her money picture stands in stark contrast to Reid's campaign; the top Senate Dem had $9.1M in the bank through the same date. Reid has said he will raise and spend $25M in his re-election race, and Pres. Obama will make another trip to NV to help him raise that cash next month.

Good Thursday morning. Congratulations to the pundits team -- and Hotline editor Amy Walter -- in last night's Members vs. Pundits softball game; they pulled out a 13-7, come-from-behind win. And we hear only one member, Rep. Besty Markey (D-CO), got run over at home plate.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

SENATE DEMS: Here's evidence that Dems are becoming skittish over the political ramifications of big-spending government: A bipartisan majority rejected spending more stimulus money yesterday, forcing Dem leaders to head back to the drawing board to make cuts throughout the $50B measure.

Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid is aiming to keep $24B for state governments in order to avoid layoffs, while cutting back a provision that would put off a Medicare pay cut for doctors. Meanwhile, the 15M unemployment checks that go out each month will be $25 smaller under the new bill. Dems need to win a total of 15 new votes to get the bill through the upper chamber.

GOPers have traditionally lambasted their rivals for taxes and spending, but this year, the focus has been in the reverse order. Spending is becoming an issue as critical as any as government debt balloons. Dems' new reluctance to shell out more cash could be an indication they are starting to see the political fallout as well.

REP. MARK KIRK: Kirk, the GOP nominee to win back Pres. Obama's Senate seat, has taken it on the chin after misrepresenting parts of his military service. Unlike CT AG Dick Blumenthal (D), who has largely moved past his misstatements over serving in Vietnam, Kirk is still saddled with doubts about his service.

Manchester Mayor Ted Gatsas (R) is backing businessman Sean Mahoney (R) in a competitive GOP primary, bypassing his own predecessor in the race for the GOP nod against Rep. Carol Shea-Porter (D-NH).

Gatsas picked Mahoney over Frank Guinta, the man who served 2 terms as mayor of the state's largest city. Gatsas won the mayor's office when Guinta declined to run in advance of a '10 Congressional race. Sources said Gatsas has a long personal relationship with Mahoney, and that he has had policy differences with Guinta.

On Wednesday, Mahoney's campaign debuted a new ad featuring Gatsas's endorsement. Mahoney, a Portsmouth businessman who owns another enterprise in Manchester, was an RNC member until he quit to make his run. Having support from a prominent politician from the other half of the district could be a valuable leg up for Mahoney.

Defense contractor Rich Ashooh (R), of Bedford, and banker Bob Bestani (R), of Dover, are also running for the GOP nod against Shea-Porter.

Mahoney's new ad featuring Gatsas:

America Speaking Out, the House GOP's new effort to communicate with voters that could eventually lead to an updated version of the Contract with America, has culled its first legislative idea -- though it's not exactly an original thought.

Last night, Rep. Dave Camp (R-MI) offered an amendment to eliminate the individual mandate in the just-passed health care law. The amendment failed, winning just 187 votes.

The idea came from constituent submissions to the America Speaking Out website, said Brendan Buck, a spokesman for the project. Indeed, the top 2 most popular suggestions under the health care section of the website advocate for repeal of the entire health care bill.

"DEFUND, REPEAL, & REPLACE GOVERNMENT-RUN HEALTH CARE: Defund, repeal and replace the recently passed government-run health care with a system that actually makes health care and insurance more affordable by enabling a competitive, open, and transparent free-market health care and health insurance system that isn't restricted by state boundaries," the most popular submission reads.

Conservative movementarians, and some of the top GOPers on Capitol Hill, are furious with the National Rifle Association for cutting a deal with House Dem leaders that could speed passage of a measure aimed at increasing campaign finance disclosure requirements.

The NRA, which had concerns about provisions in the bill they believed might force them to report their membership rolls, struck a deal with Dem leaders over the weekend that will exempt them from much of the DISCLOSE Act's reporting requirements. That deal has conservative groups steamed.

"The new word from the NRA is, it's OK to deny free speech to Americans as long as the NRA gets a carve out," said Myron Ebell, director of Freedom Action, as he singled out NRA executive VP Wayne LaPierre for criticism. "Unfortunately, the only conclusion is that Mr. LaPierre is a hypocrite and the NRA is just another powerful special interest seeking special treatment."

The conservative Wall Street Journal accused the NRA of "a sudden onset of amnesia" in a scathing op-ed today. "Cutting a special deal at the expense of the First Amendment with lawmakers who have decided for now to stop gutting the Second Amendment reveals an NRA that is unprincipled and will be weaker for it in the long run," the editors wrote.

Conservatives who oppose the reform measure say it is little more than a stunt aimed at bolstering Dem chances during the midterms -- as evidenced by its top sponsors, DCCC chairman Chris Van Hollen and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the immediate past DSCC chair. Conservatives see the bill as an unconstitutional limiting of free speech.

"I think they are treading on thin ice with members and staff alike. It isn't like the NRA to allow itself to be so blatantly manipulated by their traditional enemies," said a senior Senate GOP aide.

Cross-posted from our Congressional Connection Poll blog

Pres. Obama's favorability rating, while still strong, has dropped significantly in the last 6 months as he has grappled with a massive oil spill, a tepid economic recovery and a controversial healthcare reform law.

The president's overall favorability has dropped below 60% and his unfavorable rating risen above a third of the public in the latest Society for Human Resource Management/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, conducted with the Pew Research Center. In the poll, 56% of the public had a favorable opinion, that is, very or mostly favorable, of the president, while 39% had an unfavorable, that is, very or mostly unfavorable, view.

A survey conducted by Pew from Oct. 28 to Nov. 30 had the president's overall favorability at 65%, with 30% unfavorable.

First Lady Michelle Obama remained popular, with 69% favorable and 22% unfavorable. Half of voters viewed Speaker Nancy Pelosi favorably and 27% unfavorably, with 14% saying they had never heard of her. That is higher than a similar poll conducted last year this time that had Pelosi's favorability at 41%.

Boehner was much less well known, with 54% of those polled saying they had never heard of him. His favorable rating stood at 12%, and 22% see him unfavorably.

Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin hit a low since Pew first included her name in mid-Sept. '08. She now is viewed favorably by 39%, while 52% view her unfavorably. Men were split on her, with 44% viewing her favorably and 45% unfavorably. But 58% of women turned thumbs down on her; only 35% were thumbs up.

The youngest segment surveyed, aged 18 to 29, were the most negative on Palin, splitting 32%-59%.

The poll of 1,010 adults who were reached by landline or cell phone was conducted Thursday through Sunday. The margin of error is 4 points for the entire sample, with larger error margins for subgroups.

The Tea Party Express, fresh off wins in 3 GOP nominating contests, is targeting another GOP incumbent by backing AK attorney Joe Miller (R) over Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R).

"Lisa Murkowski has become part of the problem in Washington. Her support for record deficit spending, and her flip-flopping on whether to repeal Obamacare are just 2 of the many issues in which she has broken trust with the citizens she was elected to represent," Tea Party Express political director Bryan Shroyer said in a statement on Wednesday.

The group promised to spend hundreds of thousands of dollars against Murkowski, and for Miller, before the Aug. 24 primary. The race will be the Tea Party Express' top priority, according to a release announcing the endorsement.

It's another big endorsement for Miller, a little-known Fairbanks attorney who has run for office just once before, a losing bid for state representative in '04. He's also been endorsed by ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R), who remains popular in her home state, and he held a fundraiser in Wasilla with Todd Palin earlier this year.

MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) is taking the next step toward a potential WH bid, launching affiliates of his national PAC that can hand out money to contenders running for state office in IA and NH.

The new PACs, affiliates of Pawlenty's Freedom First PAC, will be able to raise and spend money in their respective early nominating states. While Pawlenty still contends he's focused most on the '10 midterms, the state PACs are the latest in a series of forward-looking moves aimed at the WH'12 race.

"Establishing PACs in these states will allow Tim Pawlenty to do more to aid local candidates in this fall's elections," spokesman Alex Conant told Hotline OnCall. "Conservatives have a lot of great opportunities in both states this year."

Pawlenty has hired one aide to help the NH PAC; Sarah Crawford, a former deputy Northeast political director for Sen. John McCain's WH'08 campaign, will be the PAC's senior advisor. Conant said he would not rule out the possibility of hiring staff in IA.

Founding a state PAC and putting staff on the ground early is nothing new for potential WH contenders. Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney's Free and Strong America PAC has several state affiliates around the country, including outposts in NH, IA, SC and AL.

Pawlenty has been to both IA and NH twice as he ramps up travel in advance of the '12 primary. Later this month, Pawlenty will make his latest stop in SC, home of the first-in-the-South primary. Pawlenty had to cancel an earlier trip because of his state's legislative session, but he'll be back for a June 29 fundraiser at the home of Karen Floyd, the new chair of the state GOP.

Despite the increased travel, don't expect any grand announcement just yet, Conant warned. "As for what happens after the 2010 elections, the governor will decide that in early 2011," he said.

Good Wednesday morning. Is there anything better than a game 7 in a championship series? We just hope the Celtics play a little better than they did last night, when they scored just 67 points.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

BP'S EXECUTIVE TEAM: BP CEO Tony Hayward and chairman Carl-Henric Svanberg will head to the WH today, 57 days after the Deepwater Horizon rig erupted and sent hundreds of thousands of barrels of oil gushing into the Gulf of Mexico. Pres. Obama will ask the BP chiefs, in a not-so-polite way, to set aside the cash to pay for the cleanup effort.

The morning after Obama's first Oval Office address, BP leaders should be worried that the focus of the speech rested so heavily on their company. Obama doesn't have a lot of options on the oil spill, meaning BP is going to get the most scrutiny even as the government rushes to clean up beaches and ocean in LA, MS, AL and FL.

As for the speech itself, it was not well-received. GOPers brushed off what they called political opportunism, while liberals on MSNBC savaged Obama's lowball approach. They wondered where the Commander in Chief talk went, and when the soaring rhetoric of days gone by had devolved into the minutiae of cleanup details. If a Dem loses MSNBC hosts, it's probably safe to say the speech was panned.

SEN. SCOTT BROWN: Perhaps the only big-picture moment during the speech came when Obama called for new energy reform legislation -- though he didn't even bother to do so by offering support for the bill currently in the Senate.

Dem leaders have no plans to create a new carve-out that would exempt labor organizations from a sweeping campaign finance disclosure bill, DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen told Hotline OnCall in an interview Tuesday evening.

Labor groups have voiced concerns over the DISCLOSE Act, a legislative response to the Supreme Court's Citizens United v. FEC decision earlier this year that dramatically loosened campaign finance laws. The legislation would require corporations and labor groups that run political advertisements to disclose far more about their donors than they must currently.

One carve-out, announced on Monday after marathon negotiations between Van Hollen and Rep. Heath Shuler (D-NC) and the National Rifle Association, exempted a small number of large organizations from disclosure requirements. That deal has mollified the NRA, removing what would have been a significant roadblock to the legislation's success, but it irritated progressive Dems in the House, which oppose the NRA.

Campaign finance advocates are not happy about the deal, but they still support the legislation. Labor leaders, which will not get a similar compromise, have yet to endorse the bill.

"We will be continuing to meet with our members," Van Hollen said Tuesday. "We're working to address everyone's reasonable concerns, and I think we're making progress."

House Dem leaders hoping to speed passage of a new measure aimed at increasing campaign finance disclosure spent Tuesday soothing allies as they look to bring legislation to the floor this week.

DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen, the legislation's prime sponsor in the House, spoke with labor leaders Tuesday, aiming to soothe concerns over disclosure requirements that have unions worried. Neither the AFL-CIO nor the SEIU have endorsed Van Hollen's DISCLOSE Act.

But what most rankles labor leaders is that Van Hollen has included a carve-out aimed at winning support, or at least avoiding opposition, from the National Rifle Association, a powerful lobby much more inclined to back GOPers over Dems. That has key progressive Dems fuming as well.

The bill, crafted in response to the Supreme Court's Citizens United v. FEC decision in Jan., would increase disclosure requirements for corporations and unions that broadcast political advertisements. Under the bill, a group's executive would have to appear in the ad and claim responsibility, just as a candidate has to take responsibility for their own ads. The bill would also limit the ability of foreign-owned corporations to fund political ads.

The carve-out aimed at the NRA, announced Monday, would exempt 501(c)(4) organizations of more than 1M members and with organizations in all 50 states from disclosing their membership rolls. Only groups that get less than 15% of their funding from unions or corporations would be included.

While the exemption is broad enough to include more than just the NRA, it doesn't go much further: Only the Humane Society and the AARP, along with the NRA, would qualify.

Ex-NV Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) was on Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid's turf when she met with Senate GOPers Tuesday, but neither NV SEN candidate was talking.

Before and after meeting with GOP senators at their weekly luncheon, Angle not only declined to answer reporters' queries, but did not respond at all to media following her. The only exception was a "yes" when asked if she was pleased with her reception.

Reid, meanwhile, did not hold his weekly stakeout with reporters, where he would have been asked about Angle's visit. Reid's office said he canceled the presser to join his wife Landra for surgery related to her recovery from a car accident in March. "She's doing a fine," a Reid spokeswoman said after the surgery.

GOP senators said that in their closed lunch meeting, Angle, who is looking to raise funds to compete with Reid's large war chest, was introduced by Sen. John Ensign (R-NV), and described her primary victory, fundraising and polling. Sen. Johnny Isakson (R-GA) said Angle shared polling data that showed she has a double-digit lead over Reid.

"She was excited," Isakson said. "She said she is going to work hard." Isakson said Angle, a tea party favorite, told the GOP lawmakers she is "part of the team."

Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell noted in his weekly stakeout that all GOP Senate nominees are invited to meet with the Senate GOP Conference.

The RGA is up with a new TV ad that associates '02 candidate/Milwaukee Mayor/ex-Rep Tom Barrett's (D) record with that of Gov. Jim Doyle (D) and assails Barrett's record on jobs and taxes. "He's raised taxes every year he's been in office," says the narrator of the 30-second spot. "Like Jim Doyle, only worse."

Barrett spokesperson Phil Walzak dismissed the ad, and pointed out that the RGA has used footage from a previous ad by the Barrett camp in a web video that attacks Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D).

A recent RGA web ad that hits Hickenlooper over jobs lost to WI features the text "Now A Democratic Candidate In Another State Confirms Hickenlooper's failure," followed by a clip from one of Barrett's own ads in which a narrator says Barrett has a record of bringing jobs to WI.

"You'd think the operatives at Republican party headquarters in DC would know about YouTube," said Walzak.

Meanwhile, like the RGA, Barrett's GOP opponents in WI have also been seeking to draw a parallel between his record and Doyle's, as the outgoing gov. has been saddled with low approval ratings.

The RGA Ad:

The New Champion from Republican Governors Association on Vimeo.

After the jump, the RGA's attack on Hickenlooper, complete with Barrett's original spot.

FL AG Bill McCollum (R), trailing in polls against self-funding businessman Rick Scott (R), has some help on the way. A mysterious 527 group, "Florida First Initiative," launched its first TV ad yesterday accusing Scott's former hospital company, Columbia/HCA, of illegally refusing to treat impoverished emergency room patients.

The hard-hitting ad even claims that one of his hospitals "turned away a poor man and left him to die outside their door."

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (I) signed a FL financial disclosure law this month which requires 527s to reveal their donors 30 days before a primary and 60 days before the general. That means that the funders of the "Florida First Initiative" will be unknown until the end of July. However, several people connected to McCollum work with the group, including his TV buyer, media consultant and finance director.

The McCollum campaign denies any coordination with the group, but FL's top cop may have wandered into murky legal waters when the "Florida First Initiative" used his name in an email solicitation earlier in June. FL election law says that McCollum should have filed a disclosure if he directly or indirectly solicited money for an outside group.

McCollum, who was expected to easily win the GOP primary until Scott entered the race 2 months ago, has struggled to keep pace with the prolific spender. Scott has spent over $11M of his own money on the race thus far and blanketed the airwaves with TV ads. He has risen rapidly in the polls, despite attacks over his tenure atop Columbia/HCA.

Rep. Dan Boren (D-OK) is popular in his district, but he was apparently concerned enough about his political standing to commission a poll of his chances in a primary contest.

The new survey, conducted for Boren's campaign by Myers Research & Strategic Services (D) and obtained by Hotline OnCall, tested 500 likely Dem primary voters between June 7-9 for a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. Boren and State Sen. Jim Wilson (D) were tested.

PRIMARY ELECTION MATCHUP
Boren        68%
Wilson       24

Most Dem primary voters have good feelings about Boren, even though he voted against health care legislation earlier this year. That vote was Wilson's impetus for joining the race, though in the conservative eastern OK district, that's not likely to be a deciding factor, even in a Dem primary.

"Dan Boren has a very strong personal connection with these voters and he is solidly in step with voters' values and priorities," pollster Andrew Myers wrote to the campaign.

Wilson entered the race just before the June 9 filing deadline. Now, it's a sprint to the July 27 primary, though one Boren is likely to win.

Ex-Sen. Rick Santorum (R-PA) will make his fourth trip to IA next week, making stops in the Quad Cities and Des Moines.

Santorum will keynote the Scott Co. Lincoln Club luncheon in Pleasant Valley, just outside of Davenport and Bettendorf, on Friday. Later that day, he headlines a fundraiser for state Senate candidate Sandy Greiner (R) in Ainsworth, just south of Iowa City.

The following day, Santorum keynotes a lunch open to delegates and alternates at the state party convention in Des Moines. The convention is expected to attract up to 2K delegates, giving Santorum early access to key activists from around the state.

Santorum won't have the whole convention to himself, though. Rep. Ron Paul (R-TX) will show up on Friday night, while Rep. Michelle Bachmann (R) is expected to meet with delegates on behalf of AG candidate Brenna Findley (R).

Congressional Dems have a simple argument when urging voters to give them another term: George W. Bush and the GOP screwed up the economy so much that Dems haven't had enough time to get the nation on the right track again. The only problem is that argument doesn't work, and it's going to cost Dems at the ballot box this year.

Surveys have showed voters aren't convinced that the economic stimulus package has worked. Health care legislation remains unpopular among most voters. And partisan intensity favors GOPers much more than Dems. Dems' best claim, it appears, is that Bush is to blame.

A new bipartisan survey conducted for NPR out today shows voters connect with GOP arguments in competitive races by significant margins, and that battleground voters tend to agree that Dems are leaning too much on Bush as the fall guy.

Take a look at some of the questions, asked of voters in 60 competitive Dem districts and 10 competitive GOP seats:

(The Dem candidate) might say, "They left America with rising bailouts, deficits and unemployment. So, I'm fighting for small business and the middle class, not the big guys. I helped get the biggest tax cut ever for the middle class, extended benefits and health insurance for the unemployed and passed tax credits for small business and clean energy to create new jobs here. And I'll make sure Wall Street pays back every penny and that the government reduces the deficit each year. We can't go back to policies that hurt the middle class."

(The GOP candidate) might say, "The bailouts failed. The stimulus failed. And the health care bill will cost too much money. Unemployment has skyrocketed since the Democrats started running Washington. We cannot grow the economy by growing government. The best way to revive the economy and create jobs is to reduce government spending and encourage businesses to create jobs. We need to stop burdening our children and grandchildren with Washington's reckless overspending. My top priority will be to bring down the deficit and work to create jobs, not kill jobs."

GOP statement       53%
Dem statement       41

Wins by controversial GOP candidates Rand Paul in KY and Sharron Angle in NV have helped to make the Senate picture look a bit more promising for Dems. Even so, Dems are still far from assured of winning in either state and are likely to lose a significant number of seats this fall.

Moreover, the macro picture still looks bleak for Dems. Almost 60% of Americans think the country is on the wrong track. Dems are trailing or tied with GOPers on the generic ballot test. Meanwhile, polling continues to show that GOPers are more motivated to vote this fall than Dems. And, while Pres. Obama's approval rating is hovering close to 50%, he's viewed unfavorably by independents. The latest Pollster.com trend line has Obama's disapproval rating among this group at 53%.

Of the 10 seats most likely to turn over in The Hotline's latest Senate Race Rankings, 9 are held by Dems. At this point, we see a GOP pickup of 6 to 8 seats. The firewall protecting Dems from minority status comes down to these 3 seats: WA (Patty Murray), CA (Barbara Boxer) and WI (Russell Feingold). To lose control of the Senate, Dems would have to lose 2 of these 3 -- and not pick up any GOP-held seats. That scenario seems unlikely today, but given the incredibly volatile -- and unpredictable -- cycle we've had thus far, it'd be foolish to dismiss it completely.

1. North Dakota (D): It's been 30 years since North Dakota elected a Republican to Congress, but barring a shake-up of epic proportions, Gov. John Hoeven (R) will win here this fall.

2. Arkansas (D): While Sen. Blanche Lincoln's come-from-behind runoff victory was impressive, the media seems to be ignoring the elephant in room -- polling that has consistently shown her running behind Rep. John Boozman (R). While some argue that the primary strengthened her (allowing her to fight back and defeat "Washington special interests"), it also forced her to move left, especially on the hot-button issue of health care reform, in a state that's been trending right for the last few years.

3. Delaware (D): While Rep. Michael Castle (R) certainly remains the favorite here, New Castle Co. Executive Chris Coons (D) is no more of a long shot than, say, Joe Biden was in '72. This race will tighten eventually, but when (and by how much) is still in question.

4. Indiana (D): Former Sen. Dan Coats (R) is far from a perfect candidate, yet Indiana remains a GOP-leaning state. While Rep. Brad Ellsworth's (D) profile might be good for a statewide candidate in other cycles, this will be a tough year for Dems to run in Indiana.

5. Nevada (D): Every cycle or so, an incumbent pops up whose numbers are so bad that he appears to be a dead man walking (think Sen. Rick Santorum in '06 or Gov. Jon Corzine in '09). Harry Reid certainly fits into this category, but it's also true that Sharron Angle has given him ample ammunition with which to fight back. Only time will tell if Angle herself matters at all, or if this race ends up being a simple referendum on Reid himself -- one he'd likely lose.

Check out races 6-15 at NationalJournal.com.

-- Quinn McCord contributed to this article.

House Dems running in competitive districts are in serious trouble, according to a new bipartisan survey of voters in key midterm battlegrounds, raising the prospect that the electorate is more in an anti-Dem mood than an anti-incumbent mood.

The poll, conducted for NPR by Dem firm Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research and GOP firm Public Opinion Strategies, shows just 41% of voters prefer the Dem candidate in Nov., while 49% favor the GOP candidate. More troubling for Dems, in the 30 most competitive Dem-held districts, voters favor the GOP candidate by a 48%-39% margin.

Those districts include 12 Dem-held open seats and 18 incumbents, including many freshmen and sophomore legislators swept into power with the help of Dem waves in '06 and '08. And those legislators won't be able to claim that generic ballots don't capture their true popularity; GQRR and POS named the Dem and GOP candidates in the race, rather than asking whether voters favored a generic, unnamed contender from either party.

While Pres. Obama was a help to those Dems in '08, he won't be this year; the survey found just 40% approve of Obama's job performance in the most competitive Dem districts, while 53% disapprove.

As GOPers eye big gains across the country, the poll shows just how big the actual playing field is. In a second-tier roster of 30 additional Dem-held seats, GOP candidates are favored by a 47%-45% margin. And in 10 GOP-held seats, where Dems hope to mitigate some of their losses, the GOP candidate has a 53%-37% advantage.

Dems have some possible advantages waiting in the wings, though; Voters overwhelmingly favor financial regulatory reform, by a 51%-27% margin. Support is even higher in the 10 GOP-held districts, at 57%-22%. Every House GOPer voted against regulatory reform when it was first passed last year.

But their disadvantages are myriad. While the party tries to sell the economic stimulus package as the solution to a stagnant economy, voters in the 60 competitive Dem districts say they believe Obama's economic policies have run up a record deficit without working. Fully 57% of voters chose that statement, while just 37% picked one that credited Obama's economic policies with laying the foundation for a recovery.

And voters given a choice between 2 candidates' statements -- including one in which Dems blame GOPers and George W. Bush for the current economic predicament -- routinely pick GOPers' forward-looking arguments over Dems trying to pin blame.

The survey, conducted June 7-10, polled 1200 likely voters in 70 total districts. 445 voters were polled in 30 Dem Tier 1 districts; another 445 voters were tested in Tier 2 seats, both for margins of error of +/- 4.6%. And 310 voters were tested in GOP-held competitive seats, for a margin of error of +/- 5.6%. After the jump, a list of districts GQRR and POS polled.

Good Tuesday morning. Are you following Hotline on Twitter? Be sure to add @TheHotline, @HotlineEditor and your Hotline OnCall editor, @PoliticsNation, to your feed.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

PRES. OBAMA: Obama will give his first address to the nation from the Oval Office this evening, when he outlines plans to recover from the oil spill still hemorhaging into the Gulf of Mexico. Hitting the TV circuit this morning, press secretary Robert Gibbs kept the heat on BP, which the admin believes it can force to create a trust fund to pay out claims.

But the fundamental problem remains for the admin: BP is the one with the ability to stop the spill, not the government. Obama was elected to govern well, something he talked up during the campaign, and the admin's impotence during the ongoing crisis only undermines that point. Gibbs said more than 90% of the oil spilling into the ocean will be captured by the end of June, but until the flow is stopped, it's still a major headache for the admin -- one that could cost them in the long run.

LABOR LEADERS: Their argument with the Dem establishment began when the 2 groups took different sides in the AR SEN race. Today, the rift has a chance to grow. As House negotiators struck a deal to exempt the National Rifle Association from some parts of new campaign finance legislation, they left out union groups -- something labor leaders noticed, and commented on, yesterday.

Just two weeks after his 51% primary victory, state Sen. Alan Nunnelee (R) now leads Rep. Travis Childers (D-MS) by eight points, according to a poll conducted for his campaign.

The Tarrance Group (R) poll conducted for Nunnelee, obtained by Hotline OnCall, surveyed 303 likely voters between June 8-9 for a margin of error of +/- 5.6%. Nunnelee and Childers were tested.

GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUP

Nunnelee       50% (+8 from Mar. survey)
Childers       42  (-9) 

The poll also shows Nunnelee emerged relatively unscathed from the primary, as he sports a 44/8% favorable/unfavorable rating. Childers, meanwhile, is also viewed favorably -- 49% positive -- but has higher negatives (30%). Moreover, Pres. <b>Obama</b>'s approval ratings are at just 36%. Obama took 38% of the vote here in 2008.

Nunnelee has undoubtedly benefited from a few good weeks. Not only did he win his 6/1 primary without a run-off, he's also gotten his defeated challengers to line up behind his campaign.

This means that Childers not only has to face a united GOP -- something he had the good fortune of not facing in '08 -- he'll also have to defend his voting record. While he ranked as the third-most conservative Dem in '09, according to National Journal vote rankings, that may not be enough to insulate him from the coming GOP wave.

Earlier this year, Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL) -- the Dem with the most conservative vote record in '09 -- released a poll showing him with a 20%+ lead over his closest GOP challenger. That survey also showed the AL Dem with a 68% fav/25% unfav rating. Nunnelee's survey shows Childers doesn't catch the same breaks as Bright.

Unlike Bright, Childers has voted with Dem leadership on several issues, including on the stimulus. GOPers also believe he erred in waiting until the final days to declare his intent to vote against the recent health care overhaul legislation. Dems argue that Childers voted against an earlier version of the bill, and say he made his official "no" declaration just a day after the final bill was dropped, therefore giving him time to read it.

Therefore, while Blue Dogs like Bright and even Rep. Walt Minnick (D-ID) appear to be starting their general election campaigns in decent shape, they may be an isolated cases, and may not be harbingers of good news to other conservative or moderate Dems who sit in GOP-leaning districts.

Indeed, a motivated GOP base is greatly aiding Nunnelee's cause against Childers. Among those "extremely" likely to vote (64% of the sample), the Tarrance Group survey says Nunnelee leads by 18%.

All is not lost for Childers, however. Nunnelee spent nearly $500K in his primary, and thus had just over $150K in the bank in May. Childers, meanwhile, is sitting on a $700K warchest. To continue his momentum, Nunnelee will need to quickly ramp up fundraising for the general.

Childers is a smart campaigner, and won't be taken out simply by the district's strong GOP lean. But Nunnelee has enjoyed a very strong June, and that has apparently put him in very good shape for the fall.

Allies of ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R) have taken over state Rep. Robert Bentley's (R) AL GOV campaign, firing key staff in a shakeup that could impact Bentley just a month before the July 13 runoff.

Bentley, the more conservative candidate in the race to replace retiring Gov. Bob Riley (R), surprised political observers by finishing in second place in the state's June 1 primary. Shortly after, his former staffers allege, he forced out his top 3 aides, all at Huckabee's behest.

After his surprise showing, Bentley fired campaign manager David Ferguson, communications director Steven Berry and social media director Sally Albright. The news was first reported by Glynn Wilson of the Locust Fork News-Journal.

In their place, Bentley hired Bryan Sanders and Bob Wickers -- both close Huckabee allies. Sanders is Huckabee's son-in-law; Wickers was one of Huckabee's top advisors during his WH'08 race.

"You expect more from a Southern gentleman and a self-proclaimed Christian," Berry said of the situation. "That said, I wish Dr. Bentley the best."

The farmer from Frog Jump has a fierce fighting side. Stephen Fincher (R), one of the NRCC's favorite recruits this cycle, is up with a new, and unannounced, attack ad slamming a GOP rival for being too much like House Dems.

Fincher's new ad takes on physician Ron Kirkland (R), another well-funded contender in the race to replace retiring Rep. John Tanner (D-TN). The ad accuses Kirkland of being complicit in thousands of dollars of donations to Dems while Kirkland headed the American Medical Group Association.

The group also gave money to Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid and WH CoS Rahm Emanuel, Fincher's campaign said in a release last week. More immediately, the Jackson Clinic, which Kirkland also ran, wrote $8K in checks to state Sen. Roy Herron (D) -- the likely Dem nominee for Tanner's seat.

Fincher's campaign did not announce the new ad, and a staffer at his campaign claimed spokespeople were engaged in debate preparation all day. Multiple phone messages went unanswered. But Brent Leatherwood, a spokesperson for Kirkland's campaign, said his candidate would be up with a response ad today.

"We are going up with a response. Once again it will show that Dr. Kirkland is the proven, trusted candidate in this race," Leatherwood said. "Mr. Fincher going up so early with a negative ad clearly shows that he is losing this race."

"With the Washington Establishment's losing streak going strong in Republican primaries, they apparently will use any tactic available to save Mr. Fincher's sinking ship," Leatherwood added.

VP Joe Biden will attend a fundraiser in Chicago for IL SEN candidate/IL Treas. Alexi Giannoulias on June 21st, the Giannoulias campaign announced today.

Over the last month, the Obama admin has mobilized in support of Giannoulias after rumors circulated that the WH was attempting to push the embattled Giannoulias out of the race. Educ. Sec Arne Duncan, WH dep. CoS Jim Messina and Obama '08 mgr. David Plouffe are also visiting IL this month to raise money and to show support for Giannoulias, who is in a tight race with Rep. Mark Kirk (R-10).

"We are looking forward to Vice President Biden's trip to Illinois and are grateful to have his support," Giannoulias mgr Mike Rendina wrote in a release announcing the visit. "There is so much at stake in this election and voters are seeing more and more every day that the choice between [Rep.] Mark Kirk and Alexi Giannoulias is one between a failed past and a promising future."

Biden was already scheduled to be in Chicago for a fundraiser in support of '06/'08 IL 10 nominee Dan Seals (D), who is seeking to replace Kirk.

Giannoulias has struggled to move beyond his family's bank collapse, but he has seen his fortunes rise over the last few weeks. Kirk is embroiled in a scandal of his very own, involving reports that he has repeatedly embellished his military record.

The RGA, an organization tasked with electing as many GOP governors as possible, spent more than a year plotting the electoral demise of one of their own.

RGA executive director Nick Ayers spent months talking to close friends and allies of ex-federal Judge Brian Sandoval, hoping to convince him to run against Gov. Jim Gibbons (R). Ayers got his wish, and last week Sandoval beat Gibbons by a wide margin.

The move, first reported over the weekend by Politico's Jonathan Martin, was smart, from a political standpoint. Gibbons was under assault for his personal behavior since a month before he was first elected in '06.

By Nov. '08, an RGA source tells Hotline OnCall, it had become clear Gibbons could not win a re-election bid. Polls showed he consistently trailed likely Dem nominee Rory Reid by wide margins. Those same polls show Sandoval sporting significant leads over Reid. Starting in Feb. '09, Ayers began courting Sandoval -- with consent of RGA leaders including chairman Haley Barbour (R).

A majority of Americans believe it is common practice for the WH to use its political clout to talk candidates into and out of running for office, but that doesn't mean they like it, according to a new survey.

That the WH would hold discussions with candidates about running for office, as they did with ex-CO House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) and Rep. Joe Sestak (D), is no surprise to most; 65% of voters -- including 56% of GOPers -- say it is business as usual for a WH to encourage candidates not to run for office.

But a clear majority also believes the practice is either unethical or downright illegal. Four in 10 voters say the Obama admin had done something unethical, but not illegal; 12% said they believe the WH's actions in approaching both Romanoff and Sestak about other jobs was illegal. Just 30% said the WH hadn't done anything wrong.

The Fox News/Opinion Dynamics survey, conducted June 8-9 of 900 registered voters, shows a wide majority of both GOP voters (76%) and independents (58%) said they believe there should be an independent investigation into jobs discussions.

Though the buzz over job offers for Sestak and Romanoff has died down in recent days, it threatens to pop up at any moment. Late last week, Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) -- whom Romanoff is challenging -- told The Hill he was aware the WH would reach out to his opponent.

GOPers have no plans to let the issue die quietly, said Doug Heye, communications director at the RNC. The party has used the story to pressure the WH and question Obama's claims to go beyond business as usual.

The poll had a margin of error of +/- 3%.

Tuesday's primaries delivered perhaps the most enticing storyline the media has seen since the anti-incumbent wave started to crest earlier this year: With voters across the country furious at incumbents, perhaps this would be a new Year of the Woman as the electorate seeks the ultimate outsiders.

But while women candidates had a good day on Tuesday, the overwhelming number of elected officials in Nov. will be men, thanks to recruiting failures by, and unlucky breaks for, both parties.

Already, some women who were supposed to have won have been surprise losers. MA AG Martha Coakley (D) lost her SEN bid; ex-NV GOP chair Sue Lowden (R), arguably the most electable general election contender against Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, saw her campaign collapse after a series of gaffes (Though NV voters picked another woman, Assemb. Sharron Angle, in her place); and ex-US Attorney Mary Beth Buchanan (R), a highly touted GOP recruit, lost her PA 04 primary bid by a huge margin.

Though the GOP looks likely to pick up a big number of seats in the House this Nov., the overwhelming majority will be white males. Only 8 of the 104 candidates on any level of the NRCC's "Young Guns" roster are women, and just 2 of the 23 top-tier candidates are women, as National Journal's Erin McPike wrote a few weeks back.

If the same proportions win this fall, that means the GOP Conference will actually become more male, rather than more diverse -- currently, 17 of 178 GOPers in the House are women.

The National Rifle Association has endorsed OH Gov. Ted Strickland (D), bestowing its first official blessing of the '10 midterms on a Dem.

In a letter to Strickland's campaign, provided to Hotline OnCall and first reported by CNN, the NRA's political arm said it gave the incumbent an "A+" rating -- and its coveted backing.

"As Governor, you continue to be a vocal advocate in the fight to promote Second Amendment freedoms for law-abiding citizens," wrote Chris Cox, the chairman of the NRA's political wing and its chief lobbyist. "Our members will interpret your 'A+' rating and endorsement as an indication that you are a pro-Second Amendment, pro-hunting candidate who supports sportsmen and gun-owners on every issue. This rating and endorsement information will be communicated to NRA members prior to the November General Election."

Strickland is running a tough contest against ex-Rep. John Kasich (R), a consistent conservative but one who ran afoul of the NRA over the '94 Assault Weapons Ban. Strickland voted against the measure; Kasich voted for it.

The NRA's Political Victory Fund is credited, by some, with having helped the GOP take back the majority in '94, and the group looks poised to play a big role again this year. Gun issues have yet to make an appearance on the Dem legislative agenda, but many on the right have used the threat of new gun control measures as a rallying cry this year.

Good Monday morning. We're having fun watching the World Cup, but why do we have to wait until Friday for another US outing? Just asking.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics this week:

PRES. OBAMA: Obama plans to use his first Oval Office address to the nation to outline his admin's ongoing response to the oil gusher in the Gulf of Mexico, all while compelling BP to pay the costs associated with cleanup and pushing them toward some sort of solution for the ongoing spill.

The spill is almost 2 months old, and the admin's response has evolved as the crisis got worse. When it kicked off, the admin's response was run out of a Hotmail account. Now, it's got its own domain name, and Obama leaves for a 2-day trip to MS, AL and FL, before returning Tuesday to deliver the address.

Obama's approval ratings are nothing to brag about, hovering just below 50% in most polls. And he's running out of time to do something positive to bring those ratings up; one of the strongest indicators of an incumbent party's success is the president's approval rating. An ongoing crisis, no matter how robust the response, only adds to the sense that Obama's not getting it right. For Dems in Congress, every day the oil spill isn't capped is a lost day.

SHARRON ANGLE: That Assemb. Angle won the GOP nomination against Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid is going to be seen, after Election Day, as one of the biggest surprises of the year. Angle has virtually no money; she has virtually no campaign organization; and she's only now lining up the staff she will need as she faces the $9M juggernaut that is Reid's well-run and well-honed campaign team.

GOPers in IN-03 chose state Sen. Marlin Stutzman (R) to be the party's nominee today in the special election to replace ex-Rep. Mark Souder (R). Stutzman won the nod in the second round of voting at a caucus, topping a five-finalist field with 57%.

Stutzman led the first round of voting -- and came close to the magic number of 50% -- as he took 44% to lead 14 other challengers. Ten candidates failed to collect 5% of the vote, and were left off the second round ballot.

In that second round, Stutzman appeared to collect the vast majority of the defeated candidates' votes. Indeed, he was the only candidate to pick up more than three votes (he added 59) from their first round totals. That gave him the easy victory.

The other candidates who made it into the second round of voting were state Rep. Randy Borror (R) (17%), newscaster Ryan Elijah (R) (12%), Fort Wayne City Councilor Liz Brown (R) (10%) and '10 candidate/car dealer Bob Thomas (R) (4%).

Stutzman, who came in second in the IN GOP SEN primary in May, was also picked to be the party's general election nominee. Nov. 2 -- the date of the general election -- will also be the date of the special.

Souder resigned last month after it was revealed that he had an affair with a staffer. In an e-mail to GOP leaders earlier this week -- reported by the Fort Wayne Journal-Gazette -- Souder said Stutzman is "probably best qualified and basically a very good man."

In the e-mail, though, he also suggested Stutzman may have been responsible for his affair becoming public. Souder also alleged campaign finance infractions against Stutzman from his Senate bid. Stutzman denied both allegations.

The Fort Wayne-based CD gave John McCain 56% in '08, and Souder took 55% the same year. So given the GOP tilt of the district, Stutzman has the early edge.

But Dems nominated '06 nominee/ret. physician Tom Hayhurst for the general, and are also expected to nominate him for the special. Hayhurst took 46% against Souder in '06, and already has over $230K in the bank for this contest.

While Hayhurst has the early financial edge, Stutzman will be the favorite in Nov.

We learned those awful vuvuzelas make our TVs sound like soccer games are happening in an apiary. And how much does it say that so many of ESPN's soccer announcers are British?

Here's what else this week in politics taught the staff at The Hotline:

-- The media's favorite meme this week: It's the new Year of the Woman! In truth, it won't be. Sure, women won GOV nominations in CA and ME this week, and SC's Nikki Haley (R) was so close to winning her primary outright that the RGA started defending her as the nominee-in-waiting. But the incoming GOP class in Congress will be virtually bereft of women; only 7 of 105 candidates at various stages of the NRCC's Young Guns program are women. That's a lower percentage of women than they already represent in the GOP Conference (17 of the 177 GOPers in the House are women).

-- Resumes matter. As does self-oppo research. Rep. Mark Kirk still has the benefit of not being the "mob bank" guy. But, he's quickly losing the high ground on credibility. Kirk hasn't been able to move past serious questions about his military service, even as questions over CT AG Dick Blumenthal's (D) Vietnam-era service have faded.

-- Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) needs a game changer, fast. There's no evidence that his 'grassroots strategy' is taking hold, and investor Jeff Greene is quickly gaining in the polls. If the DSCC is indeed for him, maybe an early expenditure aimed at pumping up his numbers will show the donors and the media that they mean business. If the DSCC is still hesitant, Meek needs to invest some money now to get them to take a stand.

-- Then again, one thing we learned this week is that Bill Clinton backs winners -- from Rep. Mark Critz in PA-12 to ME GOV nominee Libby Mitchell and, of course, Lincoln. Meek was one of the first candidates Bubba helped out with fundraisers and rallies.

-- Clinton tells us incumbents may not want to run away from Washington, despite the anti-incumbent mood. His speech in NV, on behalf of Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, was clearly a shot at the Dem consultant class.

-- The Research 2000/Daily Kos divorce has wide-ranging implications -- not the least of which are the effects of Nate Silver's "pollster rankings" on the industry at large. But the absence of the R2K/DKos surveys -- accuracy and reliability notwithstanding -- underscores the lack of live-caller polls in many states without dependable in-state pollsters. Mason-Dixon has its cadre of media clients. Quinnipiac has its regular list of states in which it polls. States like AZ, IA, NH, NY and PA all have reasonably solid in-state commercial or academic pollsters. But in other states without those operations, this week's developments have left a void, one likely to be filled by a further increase in automated polling.

Meet the Press hosts WH sr. adviser David Axelrod, CA SEN nominee Carly Fiorina (R), Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL), presidential historian Doris Kearns Goodwin, Politico's Roger Simon and NBC pol. dir. Chuck Todd.

Face the Nation hosts FL Gov. Charlie Crist (I), MS Gov. Haley Barbour (R) and AL Gov. Bob Riley (R).

This Week hosts House Maj. Leader Steny Hoyer, House Min. Leader John Boehner and Microsoft chair/co-founder Bill Gates. The roundtable features Washington Post's George Will, Dem strategist Donna Brazile, ex-Labor Sec. Robert Reich and ex-Rep. Tom Davis (R-VA).

Fox News Sunday hosts UN Amb. Susan Rice and Fiorina. The Power Player is ex-First Daughter Barbara Bush.

State of the Union hosts Riley, The Economist's Greg Ip and American Action Forum pres. Douglas Holtz-Eakin.

After the jump, other Weekend shows.

Who's the most popular GOPer among IA caucus-goers? That would be the guy they rejected in '08, ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R), according to a new poll conducted for the Des Moines Register.

The survey shows Romney and 2 other GOPers -- ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin and ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich -- are popular among wide swaths of the state's first-in-the-nation caucus electorate.

Fully 62% have a favorable view of Romney, while 26% see him unfavorably. Palin is seen in a positive light by 58%, and negatively by 39%. And Gingrich, who has made several trips to IA this year, is viewed positively by 56%, while 33% have an unfavorable view of him.

Other possible contenders aren't as well-known as Romney, the WH'08 candidate who finished second in IA that year; Palin, the GOP's VP nominee; or Gingrich, who has been involved in high-level party policy-making for the better part of 3 decades. MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R), who has made several campaign-style appearances in the Hawkeye State, is seen favorably by 32% of the vote.

But if Sen. John Thune (R-SD) and IN Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) have hopes of running, they'll have to introduce themselves to a ton of voters. Only 17% see Thune favorably, while more than 7 in 10 can't identify him. And just 9% have nice things to say about Daniels; fully 80% don't know who Daniels is.

The Iowa Poll, conducted by Selzer and Co. for the state's largest newspaper, surveyed 501 likely GOP primary voters between June 1-3 for a margin of error of +/- 4.4%. But no one should take the survey too seriously: We doubt some first-term senator named Barack Obama scored very high in voters' minds in the middle of '06.

DSCC chair Bob Menendez isn't buying the old argument that the 2 parties are too much alike. In fact, he's going to spend the next 5 months -- and the DSCC's millions of dollars -- convincing voters just how different his party is from their GOP foes.

"When we create contrasts, we win. When we give voters a choice, we win. I think that's incredibly important," Menendez told reporters on Thursday. "When we create the framework of these elections and we create a contrast and a choice, I believe that the candidates that we have, both incumbents and in open seats, versus overwhelmingly the candidates that they have, create a real challenge for them in the general election because they've stood on the wrong side of issues. And we will create that contrast."

GOPers say that strategy won't work. "It's no wonder the Democrats are trying to gloss over their own party's contentious divisions and failed policies, but the facts speak for themselves," NRSC spokesperson Amber Marchand said. "After ramming their stimulus debacle and unpopular health spending bill through Congress, there's no doubt that voters will hold the Democrats accountable this November for their failed economic agenda, which has driven our nation's debt to a record $13 trillion while failing to create much-needed jobs."

Menendez predicted his party would do better than expected in the Nov. midterms -- assuming, that is, that voters begin to see the economy in a more positive light.

"If on Nov. 1, the day before election day, to the question, 'Are things headed in a better direction, a worse direction, or about the same,' if we have moved the needle there, where the environment is that people believe, although they're not fully satisfied, that we are headed in a better direction, that's the best environment I can hope for on Nov. 2," Menendez said.

So far, polls aren't showing that to be the case. In the latest Society for Human Resource Management/National Journal Congressional Connection poll, conducted by the Pew Research Center, just 23% said Pres. Obama's economic policies have had a positive impact. A larger share -- 29% -- say the policies have had a negative impact, while 35% see no change.

Since we last published our rankings, we witnessed momentous primaries, poured over new polling data, and, of course, saw 2 very important special elections take place. All of those elements have served to shake up our new list.

The GOP lost a big opportunity when it failed to capture the late Rep. John Murtha's (D-PA) seat, but managed to retain momentum by taking the HI-01 race. After those developments, the party will need a pickup of 39 seats in the House this fall to retake the majority.

That's an uphill goal at this point, but not out of the question because the playing field is so large, and getting large by the week. Recent polling in several districts indicates that more and more incumbents -- including Dem Reps. Chet Edwards of TX and Allen Boyd of FL, both entering our rankings for the first time -- are in serious jeopardy of losing their seats.

The top 10 seats, in order of likeliness to flip parties:

1. TN 06 (Open Dem - Rep. Bart Gordon is retiring) -- The winner of an increasingly messy GOP race will emerge bloodied, while attorney Brett Carter (D) -- one of the Dem front-runners -- claims to have raised $100K for his bid in several weeks' time. Still, it would take a monumental collapse for the GOP to botch this pickup opportunity.

2. LA 02 (GOP Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao) -- Cao turned in a very disappointing 1stQ fundraising number (just $100K), and had just $300K in the bank. The eventual Dem nominee may be broke after the party's late-Aug. primary, but Cao will need to upsize his war chest if he's going to overcome the natural Dem proclivity of the district.

3. LA 03 (Open Dem -- Rep. Charlie Melancon is running for Senate) -- When former state Speaker Hunt Downer (R) got into the race, he immediately became the GOP front-runner. And considering the district's very strong GOP roots, that also means he's the big favorite to take the seat in the fall. But the Gulf oil catastrophe will likely affect this CD more than any other, so this race will develop very late.

4. DE AL (Open GOP -- Rep. Mike Castle is running for Senate) -- GOPers endorsed businesswoman/multimillionaire Michele Rollins (R) at the party's convo last month, but she'll still face an expensive primary against developer Glen Urquhart, who will also have the means to get his message out (he has put $565K of his own cash into the race). Rollins is a social moderate, while Urquhart is running to her right on fiscal and social issues. Rollins appears to be the favorite of DC GOPers, as she'd have the most cash and best profile to run against former LG John Carney (D), who starts off with the advantage against either GOPer.

After the jump, nos. 5-10.

Angling to compete with outside GOP groups, a new Dem organization will form today aimed at helping their party stay competitive in Nov.

The group, called Commonsense Ten, is run by Dem strategists Jim Jordan, Monica Dixon and Jeff Forbes. They say they will raise millions from Dem donor communities in an effort to augment the party's fundraising operations. The Washington Post's "The Fix" blog first reported the group's existence.

Already, GOP groups aimed at helping fund the minority's campaigns have made big noise. American Crossroads, a group chaired by ex-RNC chair Mike Duncan and advised by ex-RNC chief Ed Gillespie and Karl Rove, has said it will raise upwards of $50M. The American Action Network, headed by ex-Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) and GOP activist Fred Malek, has already started running ads.

"We looked around and just didn't see anything on our side comparable to what Republicans and their corporate partners are putting together," Jordan told Hotline OnCall. "Just doing our little bit to help."

Commonsense Ten will file with the FEC as an independent expenditure organization, a status that will allow the group to raise unlimited funds from individual contributors.

The type of organization occupies a gray area in the world of campaign finance rules. An '08 court decision in a case called SpeechNow.org v. FEC permits 527 groups formed exclusively for the purpose of funding independent expenditures. Those groups must disclose the same amount of information as campaigns and PACs, including all donations over $200, but they cannot contribute directly to campaigns.

Ask ex-Tucson Vice Mayor Rodney Glassman (D) why he is in the SEN race, and his answer is simple: "I got into this race to run against (Sen.) John McCain (R)."

The 32 year-old Dem, a former aide to Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), has centered his long-shot bid around convincing voters McCain is out of touch with AZ. "You look at the issues where John McCain has done a disservice to Arizona, then you ask yourself, what has he done for Arizona? And after 28 years the list is very short," Glassman said in an interview with Hotline OnCall.

Like many AZ pols, immigration is an important issue for Glassman. He's against SB 1070, maintaining that immigration reform is an issue that needs to be dealt with at the federal level and saying he believes there are preemption issues with the law . "SB 1070 was born out of frustration, it was born out of the frustration that the federal government isn't doing anything," said Glassman.

He also blamed McCain on that front. "The only person in Arizona that is not allowed to say the federal government isn't doing anything, is John McCain ... he is the vessel by which federal immigration reform needs to be channeled," said Glassman.

Yet Glassman refused to pass judgment on the Obama admin's recent decision to send an additional 1.2K Nat'l Guard troops to the border, illustrating the delicate balancing act he faces as a Dem in a state where SB 1070 remains popular, and frustration at the federal response is growing. GOPers, including McCain, have said the troop number is too low.

Glassman, who put $250K of his own money into his campaign, says he has raised over $500K more so far. When asked if there is a minimum amount of money that would be needed for the entire campaign, Glassman said the campaign's budget is $5M-$7M, at a minimum.

Businessman Ron Johnson (R) is up with his first TV ads in his bid against Sen. Russ Feingold (D-WI). Johnson, a political newcomer who entered the race in May, is the GOP front-runner in a primary contest that also includes businessman Dave Westlake (R). Johnson mgr. Juston Johnson said the ad buy is statewide.

In one commercial, Johnson touts his background as a businessman. "We don't export jobs, we export plastic," Johnson says. In another spot, Johnson rails against government spending and debt as he mocks traditional feel-good candidate ads.

Johnson is the highest profile potential Feingold challenger in a contest that has seen GOPers come and go. He recently landed the endorsement of the WI GOP at the party's state convention, where ex-WI Dept. of Commerce Sec. Dick Leinenkugel (R) unexpectedly dropped his bid. Self-funding developer Terrence Wall (R) also recently exited the race, further clearing Johnson's path to the GOP nod.

Johnson still has much to prove about his viability as a candidate, and will have to work to build his name ID. Feingold remains a favorite to hold his seat. And while some have referred to Johnson as a Tea Party candidate before, a statewide Tea Party coalition recently stated they have not endorsed a candidate. But with Leinenkugel and Wall out of the race, Johnson's path to the nomination appears much easier than it once did.

Check out Johnson's first 2 ads after the jump.

Good Friday morning. We're not the world's biggest soccer fans, but any event in which nations compete that gives us the chance to scream for the US is okay by us.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics this weekend:

BP CHAIRMAN CARL-HENRIC SVANBERG: Pres. Obama has summoned the oil giant's top official to the WH as the admin focuses on a new front in the war against oil belching into the Gulf of Mexico. Unlike the Exxon Valdez disaster 2 decades ago, Obama has been clear he wants BP paying out those impacted by the disaster quickly and efficiently. And BP, like any major corporation, is dragging its feet.

"The BP Deepwater Horizon spill has had a profound impact on Americans living in the Gulf region and time is of the essence in resolving these issues," Coast Guard Adm. Thad Allen wrote in a letter sent to the BP chairman, requesting a meeting set for June 16.

Obama's approach to the BP oil spill remains remarkable, both in the impact they're able to have (Which isn't very much) and in who they have trusted with the containment (That is, BP itself). BP's payments to local industries impacted by the spill are about the only things Obama can control right now, and if the disaster isn't contained, it's the best way for the admin to show it's still in charge. Only BP stands in the way.

SMALL BUSINESS OWNERS: Before Obama sits down with BP executives next week, he will take time this morning to meet with small business owners at the WH, the latest front the admin has opened to convince voters he's doing all he can to create new jobs and spur new investments. Obama will make remarks this morning at 11:00 a.m. on legislation the Senate is debating at the moment.

IN Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) is the latest potential WH'12 contender to take his turn in the DC spotlight, but an offhand remark has some social conservatives skeptical of his commitment to their issues.

In a weekly newsletter, Family Research Council Tony Perkins spotlighted Daniels' comment that the next GOP president would have to call a "truce" on social issues. At an event with reporters earlier this week, Daniels reiterated his insistence that the economic crisis and the nation's ballooning budget were the first issues a GOP WH should tackle.

"Not only is he noncommittal about his role as a pro-life leader, but the Governor wouldn't even agree to a modest step like banning taxpayer-funded promotion of abortion overseas," Perkins wrote in his newsletter today. "I support the Governor 100% on the call for fiscal responsibility, but nothing is more fiscally responsible than ending the taxpayer funding of abortion and abortion promotion."

Just days after Dems clashed with one of the strongest factions of their base, party strategists and labor officials say the relationship remains strong. But, labor officials say, they have sent a clear signal that their part of the coalition cannot be taken for granted.

Labor and progressive groups spent at least $6.7M on behalf of AR LG Bill Halter (D), who forced Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) into a runoff election. On Tuesday, Lincoln won a surprise victory, taking 52% of the vote to Halter's 48%.

On the heels of that win, anonymous Dem sources -- including a senior WH official -- accused labor of wasting their money when Dems need all the help they can get in difficult midterms. Labor officials fired back, expressing anger that their concerns were taken so lightly and promising not to be a guaranteed ally in every case.

"Anyone who thinks that Arkansas was a 'mistake' or 'error' that we now regret is severely mistaken," said Eddie Vale, an AFL-CIO spokesperson.

But, said Sen. Bob Menendez (D-NJ), who heads the DSCC, despite the spat, labor remains a strong Dem ally.

"They had a different choice than we did in Arkansas. I respect that. Bottom line is, I fully expect them to be engaged with us and working with us in Democratic victories across the country," Menendez said at a Thursday briefing with reporters. "They know, as well as we know, that the people who stand up for working families in the Senate of the United States and in the Congress of the United States are Democrats, and so I expect both their support on the ground and I expect their support, you know, financially."

Cong. GOPers expect to get a big boost in the Nov. election from the Obama admin.'s handling of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. According to the new National Journal Congressional Insiders poll, 79 percent said they'll be helped, and only 3 percent expected that they will be hurt; the remainder predicted no impact.

Dems, for their part, did not entirely dismiss the GOP's assessment. But 53 percent of them predicted that there will be no impact, while 30 percent said their party will be hurt politically by the oil spill and only 15 percent expected that they will be helped.

The comments from the Insiders were at least as revealing as their initial replies. GOPers were harshly critical of Pres. Obama's response to the spill and contended that many of their constituents share that assessment. Dems, for their part, said the POTUS has done as well as could be expected under the circumstances, and many predicted that the political salience of the issue will have faded by November.

GOP assessments included "pathetic," "woefully slow and inadequate," and "a disaster." One recalled how Dems in '05 flailed Pres. Bush for his handling of Hurricane Katrina, and explained the contrast: "Forty days after Katrina, things were better. Forty days after the BP disaster, things are worse."

Others in the GOP were more pointed. One compared Dems to "like the oil-covered pelicans. Can't flap their wings." Another criticized Obama's initial slow response and that he only spoke to the CEO of BP this week, while "his Vice President and Senior Staff spent the weekend having a super-soaker fight at the Naval Observatory."

Dems who predicted no election impact praised Obama for "doing his best." Others laid the blame on BP as "the only bad guy," or targeted GOP chants of "drill, baby, drill."

More pessimistic Dems said Obama cannot escape that "this disaster happened on our watch," and that it has become "very visible" with constant video replays. Another policy wonk blamed the president for having failed to take the opportunity "to launch policies to enhance ocean governance."

In a separate question that listed five pressing national issues, a majority of each party replied that "jobs and the economy" were uppermost in their constituents' minds. A robust 73 percent of Dems took that view, with 18 percent listing the oil spill as the top issue. Among GOPers, 54 percent cited the economy, and 26 percent listed the budget deficit.

To see more responses and the full Insider's Poll, click here.

As GOPers seek to make the midterm elections a referendum on the unpopular Dem majority, the party is delivering a message to several of its candidates: Shut up.

A bumper crop of rookie candidates have earned attention from national media outlets for controversial statements or issue positions. That plays into Dems' hands; the majority is doing its best to make GOP candidates appear as non-viable options against Dem opponents.

After KY SEN nominee Rand Paul (R) won a competitive primary by a wide margin, questions over his position on the '64 Civil Rights Act, revealed during an interview on MSNBC, knocked his team askew on its first day of the general election campaign. Paul recovered, then canceled his media schedule for several days, even skipping an appearance on "Meet the Press."

Paul took the steps after getting a phone call from Karl Rove, who urged the nominee to avoid national press. Now, Paul's comments are unlikely to appear in the Washington Post, the New York Times or other national outlets, but they do appear in local papers, speaking to local issues.

Ex-NV Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) didn't make Paul's same mistakes. After winning her primary, Angle didn't make national TV appearances.

But she did revise some of her campaign's message. An "Issues" page on Angle's website was quickly taken down, though a cached version saved online shows she advocates pulling out of the U.N., mentions that Social Security will be "transitioned out," and supports dumping nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain.

Insiders say Angle had always planned to relaunch her website at the beginning of the general election campaign. But she has gone so far underground that even a phone call from NRSC chair John Cornyn went to voicemail.

A new candidate for understatement of the century:

"The Democratic nominee for Senate last night is a young man who has never run for office, unemployed, who didn't spend one penny and got 59 percent of the vote, and he's facing felony charges. That is an uphill climb."

-- Sen. Lindsey Graham, on Tuesday's Dem primary, to Fox News Channel last night.

Unemployed Army/USAF vet Alvin Greene (D), who is facing felony charges for allegedly showing lewd pictures to a college student, stunned SC political observers by winning the Dem nomination with 59% of the vote.

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) faults Pres. Obama for a lack of leadership in stopping the BP oil spill in an op-ed in USA Today, the first time a potential WH'12 contender has used the spill to score political points.

In the op-ed, Romney charges Obama with failing to accept responsibility, instead blaming George W. Bush and GOPers for problems the country faces today.

"[W]hat may make good politics does not make good leadership. And when a crisis is upon us, America wants a leader, not a politician," Romney wrote. "So far, it has been the CEO of BP who has been managing the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico. The president surely can't rely on BP -- its track record is suspect at best: Its management of this crisis has been characterized by obfuscation and lack of preparation. And BP's responsibilities to its shareholders conflict with the greater responsibility to the nation and to the planet."

Romney -- a turnaround artist before getting into politics -- wants Obama to focus on solving the 52-day old spill, calling for a total focus of resources and manpower on the spill.

Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid is up with his first post-primary ad, making the case that only he can produce and provide for NV.

"What you see here are hundreds of jobs," says Tim Gardner, a construction worker who was unemployed until recently. "These solar jobs wouldn't be here without Harry Reid. It's that simple."

The new spot, which focuses on a solar power plant in rural NV that's produced 300 new jobs, is the latest positive ad Reid's campaign has run. Already, Reid's campaign has spent more than $1.5M on ads, though his approval ratings remain low.

Instead of immediately attacking Assemb. Sharron Angle (R), Reid is letting outside groups do that for him. Already, outside groups have spent hundreds of thousands of dollars to influence the GOP primary; Patriot Majority, a Dem-affiliated group, spent $311K on ads bashing another GOP contender during the primary.

Meanwhile, Angle is taking heat in some local outlets for scrubbing her website of its issue page. Angle, who will try to avoid gaffes that hurt KY SEN nominee Rand Paul (R) during his star turn last month, asks visitors to donate to her campaign; her site has little else, omitting an issues page and even contact information.

A cached version of Angle's issue page touts her as akin to "a soldier going to war." Before removing the page, Angle wanted to roll back health care legislation, which she called "essential to the economic survival of the United States"; to reform Social Security (which will be "transitioned out") and Medicare; to store nuclear waste at Yucca Mountain; and to withdraw from the United Nations.

See Reid's new ad here, courtesy of the Las Vegas Sun. And check out the cached version of Angle's issues page here.

Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) isn't going back to the Senate next year after losing his bid for renomination, but he wants a hand in selecting who will take his seat.

Bennett will endorse business consultant Tim Bridgewater (R), according to the Salt Lake Tribune. Bennett joins 2 other candidates in backing Bridgewater, who faces attorney Mike Lee (R) in the June 22 primary.

Bridgewater led Lee during the May 8 nominating convention with 57%, narrowly missing out on avoiding a primary election altogether. Bennett briefly considered running as a write-in candidate in the general election before announcing he would accept the results and end his 3-term Senate career.

Bridgewater has support from most of the UT GOP establishment, while Lee has backing from Sen. Jim DeMint's (R-SC) Senate Conservatives Fund and FreedomWorks, the conservative group closely affiliated with Tea Party movements. The Club for Growth spent about $177K in defeating Bennett, but they haven't picked a candidate in the primary between Bridgewater and Lee.

Neither GOPer has raised a huge amount of money, but Bridgewater has loaned his campaign $325K in advance of the state nominating convention. Given UT's rightward tilt, money isn't likely to be a problem; state Alcoholic Beverage Control Commission chair Sam Granato, the likely Dem nominee, had just $23K in the bank in mid-April.

Until now, FL AG Bill McCollum (R) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) only had to worry about their general election opponents. But thanks to wealthy independent candidates who have launched big ad campaigns, McCollum and Meek may not even make it to the general election, according to a new survey.

The Quinnipiac Univ. poll, conducted June 2-8, surveyed 814 likely GOP primary voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.4%, and 785 voters who said they would likely vote in the Dem primary, for a 3.5% margin of error. In the GOP GOV primary, McCollum was tested against health care exec. Rick Scott (R). In the Dem SEN primary, Meek was tested against real estate investor Jeff Greene (D) and ex-Miami Mayor Maurice Ferre (D).

DEM SEN PRIMARY        GOP GOV PRIMARY
Meek        29%        Scott       44%
Greene      27         McCollum    31
Ferre        3

Greene and Scott have both spend money on early ad blitzes aimed at bolstering their name identification. And both newcomers have favorable ratings as strong as their rivals.

Already, both Meek and McCollum have fought back. Meek has hit Greene for making his fortune as the housing market crashed, through credit default swaps. McCollum has attacked Scott, the former head of Columbia/HCA, for huge penalties the company had to pay for over-billing the government.

But in a year when outsider candidates are upsetting establishment favorites, Greene and Scott are proving surprisingly strong contenders. At the very least, both outsiders could force their insider rivals to spend money originally intended for the general election.

Good Thursday morning, and congratulations to the Chicago Blackhawks on winning the Stanley Cup finals. Somewhere, Michael Wilbon is still celebrating.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

CONGRESSIONAL LEADERS: This afternoon, Pres. Obama will meet with top party leaders to discuss the upcoming Congressional work period. The stretch between this week and the end of July, when members abandon DC for a month, is likely to be the last opportunity before the midterms to get anything done.

And there's a lot to do. From financial regulatory reform to new jobs legislation to a response to the Deepwater Horizon oil spill, members of Congress have a lot on their plate. Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid has even promised to bring up campaign finance reform legislation during this work period, while the bill is likely to pass the House shortly.

But GOPers have a political interest in slowing down any new legislative initiatives. With a sagging economy and growing voter antipathy directed at DC, don't expect a lot of bipartisanship during the last serious legislative stretch of the year. House Min. Leader John Boehner and Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell will at least get a free trip to the WH out of today's visit.

PRES. OBAMA: Obama is likely to get at least one more major legislative victory before Election Day, as SCOTUS nominee Elena Kagan hasn't hit any bumps along her path toward confirmation hearings. But what if they held a confirmation hearing and no one was around to hear it? Kagan has met with dozens of senators -- including Sens. Jim DeMint (R-SC) and Tom Coburn (R-OK) this week -- and today she undergoes an exhaustive WaPo profile, but the battle has failed to emerge, and GOPers are resigned to the fact she will sail through.

The liberal website DailyKos.com has chosen to terminate its relationship with MD-based pollster Research 2000, according to DailyKos founder Markos Moulitsas.

"I have decided to part ways with our current pollster, and will be looking for a new polling partner to finish out this election cycle," Moulitsas wrote in a statement posted on his site.

Research 2000 Pres. Del Ali confirmed the split in an interview with Hotline OnCall.

Moulitsas' decision comes in the wake of last night's AR SEN Dem primary runoff, in which Sen. Blanche Lincoln held off LG Bill Halter, Daily Kos' preferred candidate. The website promoted Halter as a replacement on the Dem ticket months before he announced his candidacy, and the site's readers were encouraged to contribute to his insurgent campaign.

Research 2000 conducted two polls for the site between the primary and the runoff. While Halter posted narrow leads in both polls, Ali noted to Hotline OnCall that those leads were within the polls' margin of error.

"It's not 'Dewey Defeats Truman'," Ali said, "but that's the way it goes."

AR SEN wasn't Research 2000's only high-profile "miss" of the primary season. In a poll conducted May 17-19, Research 2000 showed Rep. Artur Davis (D-AL) leading his state's GOV primary over Ag. Commis. Ron Sparks (D), 41-33%. But Sparks trounced Davis, 62-38%, in the June 2 primary.

Ali told Hotline OnCall that criticism of the AL survey was unfair because it was conducted two weeks before the election. Indeed, part of the problem may have been the dearth of public polling in the race; the Research 2000 poll was the only live-caller poll received by The Hotline in the year preceding the election.

Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) will face Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid in the fall, but if GOPers have their way, NV voters will hear a lot more about Reid than they will about Angle.

In any race in which the incumbent's approval rating is less than stellar, the out party tries to make the contest a simple referendum. In a race like NV, where Reid's numbers are so bad they haven't moved in public polls even after Reid has spent so much money on positive ads, GOPers have the perfect target.

"Nevada voters are, I think, going to have a referendum on Harry Reid," NRSC chair John Cornyn told ABC's Top Line on Wednesday. "I don't think this is any day for Harry to be giddy or popping champagne corks. I think he's in very deep trouble."

An NRSC memo sent to GOP leadership and released to the media cites Reid's "divisive, partisan, and out-of-touch record in Washington."

"Over the last 27 years, Harry Reid has lost touch with voters in his state and demonstrated a distressing pattern of saying one thing in Nevada while doing the opposite in Washington," the memo says. "Despite his rhetoric about his power and influence as the Senate Majority Leader, Harry Reid has spent nearly three decades emptying taxpayers' pocketbooks while failing to bring much-needed jobs to his state."

State Rep. Nikki Haley (R) is one step closer to snagging the GOP GOV nomination today after a surprisingly strong showing in Tuesday's primary election. Her win, in which she more than doubled her nearest rival's vote total, came despite allegations of infidelity leveled in the race's final weeks.

Those allegations might have derailed another campaign, but Haley finished the race with momentum on her side. Final polls showed Haley winning, but nowhere close to the 49% she eventually achieved.

Haley survived for 3 reasons, according to GOP strategists asked for a post-mortem: Haley's campaign strongly denied the allegations and quietly worked to undermine her accusers' credibility. Haley's gender played to her advantage, while a man accused of infidelity might not have had the benefit of the doubt she received. And her early momentum, with just a few weeks to go, was too much to stop.

"Not one shred of proof was offered to support the allegations. Voters still believe in the presumption of innocence," said Frank Donatelli, chairman of GOPAC. Added AZ GOP strategist Nathan Sproul: "Voters are pretty discerning. If someone doesn't provide proof to an allegation as serious as this, voters tend to reject it and punish any opponent who put their fingerprints on it."

Ex-CO LG Jane Norton (R), battling to earn conservative voters' trust, released her first TV ad since Jan. yesterday vowing to repeal "Obamacare" by "yank[ing] it out by the roots." The ad will air on network TV in the conservative Colorado Springs market, and statewide on cable.

Norton's message has shifting to right lately because of her powerful Tea Party-backed opponent, Weld Co. DA Ken Buck (R). Buck won last month's GOP convention handily after Norton decided not to contest it.

Norton, GOP candidate most favored by the GOP establishment, has been compared unfavorably to KY Sec/State Trey Grayson (R) and ex-NV GOP Chair Sue Lowden (R), both of whom lost their respective primaries to insurgent grassroots candidates.

Judging by his convention win, surging poll numbers and money from outside groups, Buck has the momentum heading into the Aug. 10 primary. But that's 2 months away, meaning Norton -- who has a money advantage and quiet backing from party interests -- has plenty of time to catch up. Still, she'll have to pick her spots; Norton doesn't have the money to stay on TV for 2 straight months, and any sustained spending before the primary will hurt in the short sprint to the general.

The winner of the GOP primary will face either Sen. Michael Bennet (D) or ex-state House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D) in the general election. The CO SEN race is expected to be one of the most competitive in the country.

After the jump, Norton's new ad.

CA voters want their options back, and last night they passed a proposition that would once again give them the ability to pick and choose their candidates across party lines during partisan primaries.

Despite opposition from party leaders, voters approved Proposition 14 by a 54%-46% margin. The measure would allow voters to pick candidates from any political party during a primary; only the top 2 candidates would advance to a general election, regardless of party.

Supporters of the initiative said it would result in greater voter choice, and that it would lead to more moderate picks for state legislature by bringing independent voters into the primary process. But opponents said the measure would hurt third parties and independent candidates, and that the smaller number of candidates on a general election ballot would end up costing voters a choice.

Now, both parties are lawyering up, openly discussing the prospects of new lawsuits aimed at dismantling the new system before it goes into effect next Jan.

It might seem like a bizarre ploy to elect more Dems -- CA is heavily Dem, and some believe more primaries would result in Dem-versus-Dem general elections. But in fact, it's the latest battle in a decade-long war over the very meaning of political parties.

CA voters were long used to so-called open primaries, where voters could choose between political parties during a primary election. Voters would not have to register by party, meaning anyone could be involved in both parties' primaries. A voter might cast a ballot for a GOP SEN candidate, a Dem GOV candidate and a Green Party House contender.

Hotline editor Amy Walter writes:

Of all the big primary votes last night, the biggest surprise was Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln's win in Arkansas. What happened, and why was the conventional wisdom so wrong?

1) Being an outsider still matters. In the beginning, it was easy for Lt. Gov. Bill Halter to claim the outsider mantle. But by the end of the campaign, after labor poured in millions of dollars to bash Lincoln, Halter looked more like a pawn than a principled anti-establishment fighter. One Democratic strategist argues that in this economic climate, Lincoln's attacks on Halter over his company's outsourcing of jobs were very effective.

2) The pundit class, me included, relied heavily on history (incumbents who poll under 50 percent rarely win runoffs) and gut but had no real data to back it up. Plus, the only public polling released during the runoff was taken for Daily Kos, an unabashed Lincoln basher. Not surprisingly, those two polls showed Halter ahead.

3) A vote for DC Morrison, the virtually unknown and underfunded Democrat, in the May 18 primary was not necessarily a vote against Lincoln. We assumed -- again, based on historical trends -- that a vote for Halter or Morrison in May was a protest vote against Lincoln. However, in the five counties where Morrison did the best in May, Lincoln improved her standing significantly last night. Was their vote on May 18 just a warning shot to a candidate they always expected to go back to, or did Lincoln ultimately have to sway them back?

4) Organized labor fell flat. Given the dreadful track record of Organizing for America and labor at turning out the vote since the '08 elections, Democrats should be very nervous about GOTV operations this fall. Forget about coattails, what happened to targeting? Meanwhile, the folks at the Democratic congressional and Senate campaign committees can only dream about how they would have spent the $9 million that labor poured into what can be fairly described as a personal vendetta.

Read the full column here.

Candidates in last night's primaries weren't shy about dipping into their own pockets to fund their campaigns. But whose money went the farthest? Here are some of the biggest spenders, how much money they dropped and how much they spent for every vote they earned:

CA GOV nominee Meg Whitman (R): Spent $71M of her own money to receive 1,089,299 votes. That's approximately $65.17 per vote.

CA SEN nominee Carly Fiorina (R) was more frugal. She spent $5.5M of her own money to receive 940,571 votes, at a cost of just $5.85 each.

Ex-NV GOP chair Sue Lowden (R), a businesswoman who owns casinos, won 45,861 votes in her unsuccessful bid for her state's SEN nomination. After spending $1,254,800 on her own race, that works out to $27.36 per ballot.

Whitman may have won, but businessman Les Otten (R) wasn't as lucky. The ME GOV candidate, a former minority owner of the Boston Red Sox, finished second with exactly 16K votes after spending $2.2M of his own money. That's a pricey $137.50 per vote.

Accountant Phil Liberatore (R) dropped $475K in his ultimately unsuccessful bid against Rep. Gary Miller (R), spending $26.51 for each of the 17,914 votes he earned. Venture capitalist Scott Sipprelle (R) gave himself $422K, or $47.22 per vote. Sipprelle's 8,947 votes, or 54%, were enough to ensure he will face Rep. Rush Holt (D) in Nov. And businessman Joe Grimaud (R) loaned his campaign $401K, working out to $25.91 for each of his 15,479 votes -- a fourth place finish.

But the award for most money spent last night goest to investment banker John Chachas (R): He fell far short of his goal of taking on Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, taking just 4%, or 6,925 votes. And he spent $1.32M to do it. That's $190.61 per vote.

In a blow to Gov. Jan Brewer (R) and Treas. Dean Martin (R), SCOTUS on Tuesday stopped AZ from providing matching funds to candidates who take public financing until the court decides to hear the case, which may not take place until after the election.

GOV candidates who qualify for public financing (Brewer has, Martin plans to) receive a set disbursement -- a little over $707K -- for the primary and are eligible for more money, should a privately financed opponent spend more than the amount they are limited by, up to a total disbursement 3 times as large as the initial one (for Brewer and Martin, this would have meant over $2M each).

The self-funding NRA board member/firearms training center owner Owen "Buz" Mills (R) has spent over $2M on the race so far, going up with TV ads as he aims to build his name ID. Mills' spending would have triggered the additional money for Brewer and Martin, but Tuesday's ruling halted that possibility. Now they will have to settle for the $707K.

Mills expressed his approval of the decision in a statement Tuesday afternoon. "The decision today from the United States Supreme Court to block so-called matching funds is a victory for free speech and for the taxpayers of Arizona," said Mills.

Brewer disagreed, saying, "This precedent by the Supreme Court is terribly troubling and we hope they will reconsider and allow matching funds for this election that is already underway."

Meanwhile, Martin is in an interesting position all his own. While Martin is pursuing public financing, he is also a plaintiff in the case against matching funds. Nonetheless, his campaign is pursuing public financing because he believes the system works against candidates who don't take it. Meanwhile, Martin dismissed the notion that the ruling would hurt his campaign.

Yet Martin still faces the tall task of running against a popular sitting gov. and wealthy self-funder. While Martin will not have any less money than Brewer, she currently sits atop the polls in the race. And while the news is a victory for Mills, he still faces a steep uphill climb of his own against Brewer, who remains popular after signing an immigration bill viewed favorably by Arizonans and gaining passage of a temporary sales tax increase she supported.

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (I) maintains a narrow lead over ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) in the three-way race for his state's SEN seat, according to a new poll released today.

The poll, conducted by Quinnipiac Univ. on June 1-7, surveyed a total of 1,133 registered voters for a margin of error of +/- 2.9%. Crist and Rubio were tested against Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and developer/financier Jeff Greene (D). In the GOV race, AG Bill McCollum (R) and businessman Rick Scott (R) were tested against CFO Alex Sink (D) and, in some interviews, indie candidate Bud Chiles, the son of ex-Gov./ex-Sen. Lawton Chiles (D). The younger Chiles declared as a candidate on June 3, so he was only tested among 435 registered voters for a larger margin of error of +/- 4.7%.

SEN General Election Matchups

Crist     37% (+5 from 4/13)     Crist     40% (no trends)
Rubio     33  (+3)               Rubio     33
Meek      17  (-7)               Greene    14

GOV General Election Matchups

McCollum  33% (no trends)        Scott     35% (no trends)
Sink      25                     Sink      26
Chiles    19                     Chiles    13

McCollum  42% (+2 from 4/13)     Scott     42% (no trends)
Sink      34  (-2)               Sink      32

Crist continues to draw enough Dem support to enjoy a slight overall lead -- his most likely, though narrow, path to possible victory. Meek leads Crist among Dems, 44-37%.

Among GOPers, Rubio claims 64% of the vote, but Crist siphons off 28% of GOP support. A majority (51%) of indies chooses Crist, with 26% going for Rubio and 10% for Meek.

Crist is also buoyed by women, with 38% of the female vote, to 29% for Rubio and 20% for Meek. This comes as Crist is weighing whether to veto controversial abortion legislation passed by the FL legislature -- and amid charges from the Rubio camp that Crist is removing pro-life language from his campaign website.

"With Rubio getting two-thirds of the Republican vote, the fate of Gov. Crist ... depends heavily on his ability to appeal to Democratic voters," said Quinnipiac Univ. Polling Institute Asst. Dir. Peter Brown. His fate, too, could hinge on Dem consultants; Crist has hired strategists formerly affiliated with Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) and a firm, SKD Knickerbocker, where ex-WH Communications Dir. Anita Dunn is a partner.

Crist also remains popular in the state. His approval rating is at 57%, the highest since last Oct. His approval rating is in positive territory across party lines. Just 35% of voters disapprove of the job he is doing.

Good Wednesday morning. After a late night watching primary results pour in, we're taking a little extra time getting up this morning.

But that doesn't mean we're not going to bring you another special edition of the Starting Lineup, examining the 3 up, and 3 down, after last night's epic round of primary and runoff contests:

THREE UP

SEN. BLANCHE LINCOLN: One has to go back quite a ways to find an example of an incumbent forced into a runoff election who actually came back to win. Lincoln's stunning victory Tuesday night -- with nearly every precinct reporting, she took 52% to LG Bill Halter's (D) 48% -- gives her the chance to defend her 2 terms in the Senate during a general election campaign.

But Lincoln's still the most vulnerable Dem facing re-election this year. There hasn't been a public poll for months showing her beating any of her GOP rivals, and now that the opposition has settled on Rep. John Boozman (R), Lincoln's win last night may only force the DSCC to spend money on a long-shot cause. Then again, Bill Clinton anointed her as the comeback kid, giving her hope she can do it again.

WOMEN CANDIDATES: It was just a week ago we told you about the notable lack of women candidates running for House and Senate this year. But on Tuesday, those who did run made their presence felt. Aside from Lincoln, the CA GOP nominated women for SEN and GOV; SC state Rep. Nikki Haley (R) came within a whisker of winning her primary outright; women finished 1-2 in the NV GOP primary; and state Rep. Kristi Noem (R) beat a touted Young Gun candidate in the race against Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D).

Already this year, NM is guaranteed to have a woman governor. Now, CA, SC, ME and even OK could elect their first woman governors. With Lincoln surviving and ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) and others thriving, maybe the '10 midterms won't be so bad for women after all. Then again, given how unpopular DC is, perhaps women candidates were smart enough to run for GOV instead of House and SEN.

AR 01

Dems nominated Rep. Berry ex-CoS Chad Causey (D) in today's runoff to run for retiring Rep. Marion Berry's (D) seat, as he won a come-from-behind 51-49% victory over ex-state Sen. Tim Wooldridge (D).

Wooldridge was the clear frontrunner after the first round of voting on 5/18, and he released polling showing him with a 48-24% lead in the days immediately following the contest. But Causey captured the endorsement of the third- and fourth-place Dems, and also got Pres. Clinton to cut a radio ad for him in the runoff campaign's final weeks.

Among his many post-primary messages, Wooldridge ran on his strong local roots (likely as a contrast to Causey's DC past), but some Dems believe he didn't really focus on a message or have a specific plan of attack.

GOPers, meanwhile, have already begun using the "DC insider" tag on Causey. NRCC spokesperson Andy Sere: "The Democrats' nightmare came true: after running a negative campaign that divided the party, the more liberal candidate who just moved back from Washington got nominated. He's a slick, ambitious young politician -- and his lobbyist friends on K Street will ensure he's flush with cash."

Some GOPers were initially disappointed that no high-profile GOPers filed to run in this historically Dem -- but quickly GOP-trending -- CD. But they've recently become encouraged by the performance of ag broadcaster Rick Crawford (R), and believe this race will become the top-tier pickup opportunity it had the signs of becoming when Berry retired. And in a CD that gave McCain 59%, there's no reason this seat shouldn't be on the top of that GOP target list.

AR 02

State Sen. Joyce Elliott (D) survived a furious comeback by state House Speaker Robbie Wills (R) to win the Dem nomination in outgoing Rep. Vic Snyder's (D) seat. Elliott won 54-46%, and will face ex-U.S. Atty Tim Griffin (R) in the fall.

Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) surged to victory in a crowded GOP field on Tuesday, capping a comeback fueled by conservative groups who spent heavily on the little-known contender to overcome better-funded candidates.

With 49% of precincts reporting, Angle had 38% of the vote, compared with just 29% for ex-NV GOP chair Sue Lowden (R) and 22% for businessman Danny Tarkanian (R). A handful of lesser-known candidates split the remainder of the vote.

Angle, who was expected to win on the back of a strong performance in rural NV, instead swept to victory with a strong showing across the state. She was winning in Las Vegas-based Clark Co., the state's largest, by a 36%-33% margin over Lowden, while she took 43% to Tarkanian's 26% and Lowden's 19% in her base of Carson City. Angle also won a 17-point victory in Washoe Co., home to Reno.

Angle's victory represents a remarkable comeback from just 2 months ago, when she registered only in the single digits. But after winning support from the Tea Party Express and the Club for Growth, she won over GOP voters angry at more moderate factions of the party. The 2 groups spent more than $1M on Angle's behalf, swamping other contenders.

Though polls once showed a close race, ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) skated past her GOP rivals on Tuesday, easily earning the right to take on Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) in the fall.

With just over 11% of precincts reporting, Fiorina was winning 54% of the vote, well ahead of ex-Rep. Tom Campbell's (R) 26% and Assemb. Chuck DeVore's (R) 17%.

Fiorina held huge leads in Los Angeles, San Diego and Ventura Cos., the largest areas in the state in which a significant number of votes had come in. Orange Co., the state's traditional conservative bastion, had not reported results by the time the AP called the race for Fiorina.

The race was at times unpleasant. After Campbell jumped in this Jan., polls showed him leading the GOP field, and Fiorina launched a series of attacks aimed at undermining Campbell's fiscal conservative credentials. Fiorina and DeVore also raised questions about Campbell's commitment to Israel, given some votes he took when in Congress.

But what did Campbell in was money -- or lack thereof. Campbell was forced to severely curtail his late ads thanks to a money shortage, while Fiorina dumped millions of her own money into the race to keep herself on air.

As polls showed Fiorina moving ahead thanks to that final advertising blitz in the race's closing week, she turned her attention to Boxer, questioning the incumbent's commitment to national security and fighting terrorism.

Boxer has more than $9M in the bank, giving her an early advantage in the race against Fiorina. But national GOPers are confident in their nominee, who they believe can blunt many of the advantages Boxer has enjoyed in earlier runs for re-election.

Meanwhile, ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) handily won her primary in the race to replace outgoing Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R). Whitman was winning 63% of the vote over Insurance Commis. Steve Poizner (R), who took 27%. Whitman will face ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D) in Nov.

Promoted from earlier

The Comeback Kid brushed off whatever magic he's had on his sleeve for the last 18 years on Tuesday night and dusted it directly into his home state, as Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) rode Bill Clinton's late plea for victory over union-backed LG Bill Halter (D).

With the AP calling the race at 10:58 p.m., Lincoln sported a 52%-48% lead over Halter. The upstart Halter had appeared to have the momentum with just under half of the precincts reporting as Lincoln's early lead dwindled to a 51.1% to 48.9% advantage. However, she slowly began to peg her numbers back up as her score rose 0.4% to an insurmountable 51.8%-48.2% lead by the time 77% of precincts checked in with the AR Sec/State. That became 51.9%-48.1% by the time 97% of precincts reported.

Her win comes as a major blow to out-of-state liberal groups that tried to do the same thing to Lincoln they successfully pulled off in the '06 CT-SEN Dem primary when businessman Ned Lamont (D) rode a wave of discontent to a primary win over Sen. Joe Lieberman (I), who came back to win the general election as an indie.

Lincoln said she would not consider such an option and would go down swinging as a Dem regardless of the outcome. Halter, on the other hand, flatly refused to state whether he would endorse Lincoln if she won, much in the same way Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) refused to answer such a question prior to his victory over party-switching Sen. Arlen Specter (D) 5/18.

Keeping Lincoln in the race to face Rep. John Boozman (R-03) in the general election is a huge win for the establishment at a time when establishment figures have been reeling. Pres. Obama, VP Joe Biden and Sen. Mark Pryor (D) all joined Clinton in supporting Lincoln throughout the campaign. However, with Halter leading in the runoff polls, the WH backed off and, aside from one e-mail sent to supporters from Biden, Obama's political team seemed muted in the race.

With 48% of the precincts in and 35% of the vote, state Senate pres. Libby Mitchell (D) has won the Dem primary, beating Steve Rowe (D), who had 24% of the vote.

While no clear frontrunner emerged during the Dem primary campaign, Mitchell did secure the backing of Bill Clinton, and as state Senate pres., was a familiar name to voters. Like others in the Dem race, Mitchell was not shy about going up on TV, airing a TV spot touting her Clinton endorsement.

Mitchell now faces Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) in the general election, along with several indie candidates who will also join the 2.

In the wide open, seven-candidate race for the GOP nod in ME GOV, Waterville Mayor Paul LePage (R) emerged the victor late Tuesday. LePage led businessman/ex-Boston Red Sox vice chair Les Otten (R) 38%-17% with 48% of the precincts counted.

Otten, who had spent heavily on TV advertising during the race, entered the evening as one of the top candidates on the GOP side.

LePage had spent the closing days of his campaign in southern ME. A favorite of conservatives, LePage has a compelling personal story as well, which he put on display in a TV ad. He is one of 18 children and was homeless at the age of 11.

As a candidate from the conservative side of the GOP field, LePage's win sets up what is likely to be a strong contrast with whoever emerges from the Dem field.

In his victory speech tonight, LePage sought to strike a conciliatory tone. "Tonight was not a win for any particular group," he said. "It was not a win for any particular ideology or any particular faction, tonight was a win for Maine."

SD AL

State Rep. Kristi Noem (R) won a come-from-behind victory in SD-AL, defeating a better known candidate (Sec/State Chris Nelson) and better funded challenger (NRCC "On the Radar" candidate/state Rep. Blake Curd), 41%-35%-23%.

Noem outraised underfunded Nelson, but was nearly doubled up by Curd, who spent heavily on TV advertising to introduce himself to voters. But Noem's TV ads were very well done, and allowed her to rise above the pack.

Curd was in the NRCC's "Young Guns" program, but some GOPers are also excited about Noem's potential, and they believe she's the party's best matchup against Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D). In this heavily GOP-leaning state, if Noem and her profile as a rancher can neutralize Herseth Sandlin's strengths, she has a very good shot at taking down the incumbent.

There won't be any bitter GOP fued to worry about here. The campaigns, for the most part, avoided all negative attacks. The GOP will be united for a very winnable race against Herseth Sandlin.

NJ 03

It may be an anti-establishment year, but the machine came through for the two party picks. Ex-Philly Eagle Jon Runyan (R) -- who was backed by all 3 county GOP organizations -- easily defeated '08 candidate Justin Murphy (R), 60%-40%. Murphy ran to Runyan's right on abortion and attempted to rally anti-establishment support, but came up short in his bid.

Rep. John Adler (D), meanwhile, dispatched with a challenge from his left from Lacey Twp. Dem Chair Barry Bendar (D), 75%-25%. Bendar hit Adler on his vote against the health care overhaul, but had little support (financially or otherwise), and didn't gain much traction.

Ex-Gov. Terry Branstad (R) was headed toward a big win Tuesday, leading by double digits in the GOV GOP primary for his old job. With 79% of precincts reporting, Branstad led businessman Bob Vander Plaats (R) 50% to 40%. State Rep. Rod Roberts (R) was in third place with 9%.

[Update: AP calls the race for Branstad].

Branstad, backed by ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R), was heavily favored heading into the day, domintaing the airwaves and enjoying a significant fundraising advatange.

Branstad now faces Gov. Chet Culver (D), who was unopposed in tonight's Dem primary. The two have already been launching broadsies at each other.

Look for Iowans For A Responsible Gov't, a group led by ex-IA Dem chair Rob Tully, which has been hitting Branstad from the right in ads and mailers, to remain a point of tension in the campaign.

Also, look for the two sides to lock horns over unemployment figures from both the Branstad and Culver admins, the state's I-JOBS program, recent departures from Culver's staff and the overall econmic health of IA under Culver's watch.

'82 GOV nominee/ex-U.S. Atty Roxanne Conlin (D) advanced to a general election showdown with Sen. Chuck Grassley (R), easily dispatching with her Dem competition. With 23% of the precincts counted, Conlin had secured 80% of the vote. Atty/ex-state Sen. Tom Fiegen (D) and ex-state Rep./ex-IA DoT transp. planner Bob Krause (D) each had around 10% of the vote.

Conlin was never really threatened by her Dem competitors, both of whom had lower name ID and far less fundraising success. During the primary, Conlin focused much of her ammo on Grassley, whom she will now square off with.

Grassley was unchallenged on the GOP side, but has already kicked his campaign into gear with the release of a TV ad. Conlin's fundraising has been impressive so far, but will she will now have to hang around with Grassley, who sports a large war chest and significant CoH advantage.

SC 01

State Rep. Tim Scott (R) blew away a 9-candidate GOP field, but still came up short of the 50% needed to avoid a runoff in the race to replace outgoing Rep. Henry Brown (R). As a result, he'll meet second-place finisher/late-Sen. Thurmond son Paul Thurmond (R) on 6/22. Scott led Thurmond 32%-16%.

Scott's performance is particularly impressive considering he crushed a field that also included 2 scions of legendary SC GOP families (businessman Carroll "Tumpy" Campbell and Thurmond). Both entered the contest with much fanfare, but neither managed to catch fire. They raised a respectable amount of cash, but Scott -- who was backed by the Club for Growth -- still managed to keep up with them even though he entered the race much later then either of those high-profile candidates did.

The GOP primary winner will face '08 nominee/FedEx pilot Jane Dyer (D), but the CD leans heavily to the GOP, and either GOPer will likely have a heavy financial advantage in the contest, giving the GOP a big edge here on election day.

If Scott does indeed make it through the runoff and general, watch for him to quickly become one of the GOP's rising stars, as he'd be the first African American in the conference since ex-Rep. J.C. Watts (R-OK).

SC 03

In the race to replace retiring Rep. Gresham Barrett (R), pastor/Tea Party activist Richard Cash (R) spoiled the establishment party, taking 25% to lead the field and shock the frontrunners. He'll move into a runoff where he'll face state Rep. Jeff Duncan (R), who took 23%. State Rep. Rex Rice (R) and businessman Joe Grimaud (R) came in third and fourth, respectively.

Considering he raised less than any of the frontrunners, Cash's performance is a bit surprising. But he was able to coalesce the Tea Party vote, and in a 6-person field, that was enough to win. Will he muster enough votes 2 weeks from now to win the runoff? On the flip side, can Duncan rally the establishment to win the race?

State Rep. Nikki Haley (R) easily won the popular vote tonight with 49%, far ahead of Rep. Gresham Barrett's (R) 22% (with 90% of the vote counted.) Because neither candidate exceeded 50%, they will sprint to a June 22 runoff, just 2 weeks away.

Meanwhile, AG Henry McMaster (R) and LG Andre Bauer (R) continued the 40-year losing streak of statewide SC officeholders trying to rise to the top office. On the Dem side, state Sen. Vincent Sheheen (D) walked away with a clean 58% win, defeating Education Supt. Jim Rex (D) with 22% and state Sen. Robert Ford (D) at 20%.

Haley overcame 2 weeks worth of scrutiny that she described as the "worst" part of SC politics. First, she denied alleged affairs with her former consultant, blogger William Folks as well as ex-Bauer aide Larry Marchan. Bauer even took a polygraph test to prove that he did not spread rumors about her himself nor directed anyone from his campaign to do the seame.

Haley refused to take a similar test. Then came an off-the-cuff remark from state Sen. Jake Knotts (R), who called her a "raghead," as he did with Pres. Obama.

Already, pundits are suggesting Barrett may concede the runoff to Haley, given her proximity to the crucial 50% mark. But if he does, Barrett would give up the chance to succeed if Haley collapses in the next 2 weeks.

VA 05

State Sen. Robert Hurt (R) gave the GOP arguably its strongest candidate to run against first-term Rep. Tom Perriello (D) by leading a 7-candidate field with 48% of the vote.

Hurt won 12 out of 22 localities in the sprawling 5th, which stretches from Charlottesville in the north to the NC border near Danville along the Route 29 corridor. Hurt battled not just his GOP opponents but his own record during the primary race as conservatives and Tea Party members bashed him for his '04 vote in favor of then-Gov. Mark Warner's (D) budget which raised some taxes and lowered others. Hurt said during the campaign he regretted the vote, but at the time, he was part of a group of moderate state GOP delegates who did not view tax increases as anathema to the GOP brand.

Most troubling for Hurt is who came in second place with 26% of the vote: Real estate developer Jim McKelvey (R), who suggested that he may not support Hurt in the general election. McKelvey attacked Hurt for "voting for $2 billion" in "tax increases," as mentioned on his campaign Web site. During the week leading up to the election, Hurt and McKelvey exchanged barbs over a McKelvey ad that mocked Hurt's vote for Warner's '04 budget by using a Bill Clinton impersonator.

Tea Party activist Jeff Clark (R) has said he would run as an indie if Hurt won the GOP nod. If McKelvey crosses Hurt and backs Clark, he could take with him a sizeable protest vote from the GOP with him. In a tight race against Perriello, that may hand the incumbent a path to victory that requires less than 50% of the vote.

VA 11

In the battle to take on freshman class pres. Rep. Gerry Connolly (D), '08 nominee Keith Fimian (R) earned the right to a second round by handily defeating Fairfax Co. Supervisor Pat Herrity (R). Fimian ran the classic general election strategy for a GOPer running in the swing 11th district of Northern Virginia: Run even in Fairfax Co. and run up the margin of victory in Prince William Co.

The AP called the race shortly after 8 p.m., just an hour after polls closed. Fimian held a 58%-42% lead with about 77% of precincts reporting by 8:30 p.m. While he trailed 51%-49% in populous Fairfax Co. -- which has twice the number of precincts in the 11th than Prince William Co. -- Fimian swamped Herrity 76-24% in Prince William.

Fimian also carried all 6 Fairfax City precincts in the CD. One early election key that proved to foreshadow turnout: Herrity kicked off his campaign at a country club in Springfield (which is in the magesterial district he represents at the county level) while Fimian opened his campaign at an Italian restaurant in Haymarket, which lies within the heart of GOP-heavy western Prince William.

Herrity tended to be viewed as the establishment candidate, carrying support of a majority of GOP county supervisors from Prince William and Fairfax, while Tea Party members heavily backed Fimian. Prince William as a whole is generally more conservative and more GOP than Fairfax Co. and has recently become, along with neighboring Loudoun Co. to the north, the bellweathers for politics in VA. Both Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) and Pres. Obama won the county by almost identical margins to their statewide totals.

After the jump, our write-up of VA 02.

Ex-state Rep. Tom Graves (R) won the special election runoff tonight with a convincing 60%-40% victory over ex-state Sen. Lee Hawkins (R). In the May 11 special election, Graves took first place with 35% of the vote to top the 8-candidate field. Hawkins took 23% in the special, leaving him with much more work to do.

Hawkins may have made up a bit of ground with late revelations that Graves and a business partner were past-due on a bank loan, and also may have benefited by a robocall from Rep. John Linder (R-07) that bashed Graves.

But Graves more than counteracted any late Hawkins surge, as he had support from many conservative orgs and high-profile GOPers, including the Club for Growth and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI 01). The Club estimated that its participation -- including member contributions and the PAC's TV ad buy -- amounted to over $330K.

Hawkins will get his chance at a rematch on 7/20, though, when he faces five GOPers in the primary for the full term, which begins in Jan. '10. Although it's hard to see Graves losing that contest.

With Graves' win, the House breakdown is now 255-178, with two vacancies (1 GOP-held, 1 Dem-held).

Sen. Bob Bennett (R-UT) is a top-ranking member of the Senate Appropriations Committee. Sen. Arlen Specter (D-PA) has spent 30 years delivering for his home state. And Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) is the first person from her state ever to chair the Senate Agriculture Committee.

Bennett and Specter lost their re-nomination battles. Lincoln was forced into a runoff, being held today, that could mean the end of her own career, as many believe LG Bill Halter (D) is the favorite to win.

In each case, the incumbent played up their influence in DC, and their ability to deliver for their state. In each case, it hasn't worked, as voters display their displeasure with the way DC is run, and with anyone associated with Congress. Rep. Alan Mollohan (D-WV), the third-ranking Dem on the House Appropriations Committee, has already lost his race as well, while Rep. Bob Inglis (R-SC) is in danger of losing his seat in today's SC primary.

"People say, 'Well, if your clout is so helpful to us, why aren't things better?" said Rob Jesmer, the NRSC's executive director. GOPers have spent the last year using Dem ties to an increasingly unpopular DC to hammer the majority, even members who might have used their incumbency as a bonus in other years.

That trend should be concerning to other members of Congress, many of whom will tout their pull on Capitol Hill. Though experience and ability to deliver has been effective in the past -- just ask Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell, who focused on his clout as he won re-election in '08 -- it may not be effective this time. In some cases, it may even be a drawback.

IN Gov. Mitch Daniels, who may be wrestling with a WH, also might be toying with another question: '12 or '16.

"No one in this town ever, ever, ever believes that people mean what they say," he said when asked about what tonight's D.C.-based fundraiser for his PAC means. "Every penny of that's going to be spent in Indiana," he told reporters today at the Heritage Foundation.

Daniels explained that GOPers have the opportunity to regain the state House in the Hoosier State, and if they do that, to enact education reforms and try several things to protect against union abuses. And right after he said that's an important goal for his state, he suggested that once in place, they might be "interesting models" elsewhere -- perhaps nationally.

"That's what it's about, really," he said.

But consider the timeline: If Daniels gets his wish - a GOP majority in his legislature's lower chamber - he won't be able to start working on those reforms until next year, at which time he also would have to launch a primary bid.

He's made clear that he's not making the political maneuvers to run for president next cycle, but he's not shutting down the speculation, either. Term-limited in '12, Daniels might accomplish goals mid-way through the year and could be tapped as his party's VP nominee, which, by GOP tradition, would set him up to carry his party's banner 4 years later if the GOP ticket came up short.

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (I) has removed pro-life language from his campaign website, the latest move in an effort to distance himself from the GOPers who forced him out of the party.

Crist's website, which touts his "independence" and "integrity," now includes sections on open government, offshore drilling, fiscal responsibility and immigration, but it says little about social issues. Ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio's (R) camp noticed the omission and forwarded a previous page to reporters.

"Governor Crist believes strongly in the sanctity of life," the cached page says, referring to Crist's defense of FL's parental notification law. The old site also touts his support for crisis pregnancy centers, which promote adoption.

The same page listed Crist's position on same-sex marriage: "Charlie Crist believes marriage is between one man and one woman. As Attorney Gneeral, Charlie Crist defended nine cases attacking traditional marriage."

Now, those pages are gone. Searches for "abortion," "life," "adoption" and "marriage all come up empty.

Crist has long had an evolving view on abortion questions. In '98, he ran against Sen. Bob Graham (D) as a pro-choice GOPer. By '06, when he was running for governor in a competitive GOP primary, he told reporters he was pro-life.

It's Crist's latest change in focus, or outright change in tune. When he ran for governor in '06, Crist pledged he would oppose offshore drilling; he said the issue should be studied in '08, when he was a VP contender; following the BP oil spill, he opposes drilling again. Meanwhile, Crist has also removed sections of his website dedicated to the Second Amendment, Taxes and Afghanistan. Meanwhile, Crist's statement opposing health care legislation, which passed earlier this year, is also gone from the site.

A Crist spokesperson did not return a call and an email seeking clarification on Crist's position on abortion.

In '92, the number of women candidates who won election made it the "Year of the Woman." And while both parties have struggled to recruit top women candidates this year, a good number of strong women candidates could emerge from today's primaries.

CA GOPers are likely to nominate 2 former business executives in GOV and SEN contests today. Ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) leads her GOP GOV rival by wide margins, according to late polls, while ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) built a late lead against 2 GOPers in the race to face Sen. Barbara Boxer (D) this fall.

A scandal has yet to derail SC state Rep. Nikki Haley (R), who is running to replace outgoing Gov. Mark Sanford (R). She leads the GOP primary and some believe she may even avoid a runoff despite last-minute allegations of affairs with 2 GOP political consultants, as voters flocked to Haley's defense.

Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid is likely to face a woman rival come Nov. Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) leads late polls, while ex-NV GOP chair Sue Lowden (R), once the front-runner, is likely to place second or third.

Dems are loathe to accept the comparison, and GOPers are giddy at their similar prospects, but in one important respect the '10 midterms are different from the '94 contests: Incumbents are actually less popular.

A new Washington Post/ABC News survey shows just 49% of voters approve of the job their member of Congress is doing. That's 10 points below the same poll's numbers in Oct. '06, just 2 weeks before Dems retook control of Congress; and it's 2 points lower than the rating voters gave their incumbents just days before the '94 midterms, when the GOP took over.

The dismal approval ratings have voters looking around for new representation. Just 29% of voters said they are inclined to keep their members of Congress, while 60% want to look around for someone new. It's the first time in the survey's history that so many voters are considering electing new members of Congress.

Dems still hold an advantage on generic ballot tests; 47% of registered voters say they would vote Dem, while 44% say they would vote for a GOPer. And voters say they trust Dems more than GOPers, by a 44%-32% margin, to do a better job coping with the issues the nation faces.

Poll Times: 7 a.m.-9 p.m. statewide.

In IA, candidates must receive the most votes, and at least 35% of the vote to win. There is no runoff. Should a candidate fail to obtain the necessary percentage, it will fall to the party, and convention delegates.

Dems: '82 GOV nominee/ex-U.S. Atty Roxanne Conlin (D), Atty/ex-state Sen. Tom Fiegen (D), ex-state Rep./ex-IA DoT transp. planner Bob Krause (D).

GOPers: Sen. Chuck Grassley (R) is unopposed.

Conlin heads into to Tuesday's primary as the clear frontrunner for the Dem nod, heading a field of three Dem candidates looking for a shot to take on Grassley.

Conlin is the only candidate that has gone up on TV, airing a spot late in the race in which she positions herself opposite special interests. She has also enjoyed a significant advantage over her Dem opponents in both fundraising and name ID.

The Des Moines Register endorsed Fiegen, who has devoted a great deal of time in his campaign to economic issues; with a set of initiatives he has dubbed "Fiegenomics." Krause, meanwhile has focused his campaign on veterans issues. Conlin is backed from organized labor -- including the Iowa Federation of Labor (AFL-CIO) and AFSCME -- and the Iowa City Press Citizen.

And Conlin has not been shy about going directly after Grassley during the primary, as she has maintained an offensive centered on Grassley's vote for bailout, and an attempt to draw a Wall Street versus Main Street contrast.

While Conlin's 1st Q fundraising numbers were impressive, her CoH numbers still lag behind Grassley's. Grassley, has already gone up with a TV ad of his own, even as he is unopposed from any other GOPers, suggesting he is not taking a potential general election battle with Conlin lightly.

Good Tuesday morning. Voters are casting ballots in 11 states today in the largest primary day of the year. Make sure to come back to Hotline OnCall tonight to keep up with our live blog, which goes live with the latest results as the first polls close.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

THIRD-PARTY GROUPS: Ex-NV Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) and AR LG Bill Halter (D) are likely to emerge as winners in their respective SEN contests tonight. Angle faces a field that hasn't impressed GOP primary voters in the race against Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, while Halter is polling ahead of Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D) in his runoff election.

But if both win, credit belongs with the outside groups that got them there as much as with Angle and Halter themselves. Angle's boost came after the Tea Party Express and its affiliate PAC endorsed her campaign and poured more than $500K into ads on her behalf. The Club for Growth followed up with $400K in ads on their own, bolstering Angle's position just as her main rival was collapsing under the weight of self-inflicted gaffes.

$900K seems like a lot of money. But it's nothing compared to the amount labor unions have spent for Halter -- in fact, 4 different union groups have each spent well over that amount on Halter's behalf, as our colleague Chris Good wrote yesterday. If Halter knocks off Lincoln, who has a problem with EFCA and other union priorities, it will send a powerful message to the entire Dem establishment that labor isn't always on board.

PRES. OBAMA: 50 days ago, an explosion at the Deepwater Horizon platform sent thousands of barrels of oil pumping into the Gulf of Mexico every day. Now, with experts saying that oil will continue to flow well into the summer -- and will continue to damage the environment into the fall -- the WH is still struggling to project an air of authority.

IN Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) is the talk of the town these days as the policy wonk-turned-successful governor generates buzz over prospects of a WH'12 bid.

Not one to miss a golden opportunity, Daniels has 2 stops in DC over the next week aimed at filling his PAC's coffers and creating a little buzz to promote his agenda.

Daniels starts tomorrow, with a stop at the Heritage Foundation to meet with bloggers and reporters. Later, he will head to a policy forum hosted by Rep. Michael Burgess (R-TX), who heads the Congressional Health Care Caucus, to talk about costs and implementation of just-passed reform legislation.

Next week, Daniels will host a DC fundraiser for his Aiming Higher PAC. The event, to be held at the Willard Hotel, will be hosted by major GOP bigwigs like ex-Sen. Spence Abraham, RNC member Ron Kaufman, C. Boyden Gray and others.

It is only appropriate, then, that Daniels also graces the cover of The Weekly Standard this week, subject of an 8,690-word profile penned by senior editor Andrew Ferguson. In the piece, Daniels makes all the right noises -- disavowing his interest in a WH bid but grudgingly going along with the way the game is played.

"I really don't want to run," Daniels tells Ferguson. But, he confesses: "Newt [Gingrich] told me, look, quit saying you're not going to do this. If you don't run, you don't run. But say you're leaving the door open, and the national press will pay a lot more attention to your viewpoint."

Daniels may be sincere in his disavowal of national ambitions, or he may be playing appropriately coy. What's certain is that some GOP activists are decidedly less coy, and they are sincere in their desire to see Daniels run, and save their party along the way.

Cross-posted from TheAtlantic.com