Daily Kos To Sue Former Pollster
Daily Kos founder Markos Moulitsas announced today he will file a lawsuit against MD-based pollster Research 2000, alleging that polls Research 2000 was conducting for the liberal blog were fabricated.
Moulitsas today published a report by three readers he describes as "statistics wizards" that he says shows "quite convincingly" that Research 2000 was manufacturing the results of weekly national polls.
"Based on the report of the statisticians, it's clear that we did not get what we paid for," Moulitsas wrote on his website today.
"We were defrauded by Research 2000, and while we don't know if some or all of the data was fabricated or manipulated beyond recognition, we know we can't trust it. Meanwhile, Research 2000 has refused to offer any explanation."
The analysis was conducted for Moulitsas by political consultant Mark Grebner, retired physicist Michael Weissman and wildlife research technician Jonathan Weissman. Grebner was also involved in an analysis of polls by GA-based GOP pollster Strategic Vision that concluded the surveys may have been fabricated. The Strategic Vision analysis was reported on FiveThirtyEight.com, where the three have associated in the past.
Research 2000 conducted a weekly poll beginning in Jan. '09, until their association with Daily Kos ended earlier this month. The poll was usually conducted Mon.-Thurs. of each week, with results published on the Daily Kos website Fri. mornings.
The weekly poll began as a survey of 2,400 adults, who were asked about their impressions of Pres. Obama, Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell, House Speaker Nancy Pelosi, House Min. Leader John Boehner, both political parties and each party's members of Congress. Right track/wrong track and cong. generic ballot questions were also asked.
In March, the poll shifted to survey 1,200 registered voters. Their weekly track of voter intensity by party was cited in this space, among others.
Research 2000 also conducted extensive state polling for the site for the past two cycles. While the analysis didn't look at those polls, Moulitsas said that the results of the report cast significant doubt on the veracity of that data, as well.
"While the investigation didn't look at all of Research 2000 polling conducted for us," Moulitsas wrote, "fact is I no longer have any confidence in any of it, and neither should anyone else."
"I hereby renounce any post we've written based exclusively on Research 2000 polling."
Research 2000 Pres. Del Ali could not immediately be reached for comment.
Moulitsas announced June 9 that he would terminate his site's relationship with Research 2000 after Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) defeated AR LG Bill Halter (D) in a Dem primary runoff; two Research 2000 polls had shown Halter, Daily Kos' preferred candidate, with small leads.
The dismissal also came shortly after FiveThirtyEight.com ranked Research 2000 as one of the worst-performing prolific pollsters in their pollster ratings, which have come under fire from Research 2000 and other pollsters.
I guess this calls into question the allegations that tea partiers are racist and birthers.
Nearly every show on MSNBC and every left wing blog used these polls to smear the tea party.
If Kos is suing his pollster does that mean he will be issuing an apology to the people he defamed?
Will he apologize to Olberman and Maddow for misleading them?
This is big news and calls into question all of the reporting and commentary based on those polls.
I'm not sure why you guess that, Wodun. Much of the the Tea Party polling (cited by MSNBC and others) was done by New York Times/CBS News, not Research 2000. Are you arguing that bad acts by one polling company means that all polls are illegitimate? Or are you just trying to cloud the issue?
It does seem to be less about the "veracity" of the data, more about the disagreement with the information that the company delivered.
Contracts being what they are, good luck Kos Kids. You're going to need it if Research 2000 has an even barely competent attorney who can show that the company delivered what it promised.
Jon Marcus beat me to a response. Other polling outfits compiled data on the Tea Party.
@Norman Rogers That's not what that says at all. The claim is about the veracity of the data. "some or all of the data was fabricated or manipulated beyond recognition"
When a group's public face is a screaming mob of white people holding up vile signs depicting the president as a psychotic villain, no one needs a poll to draw the obvious conclusion.
Citizen K.,
After 8 years of "white people holding up vile signs depicting the president as a psychotic villain," you're right.
You were talking about Bush, weren't you?
Citizen K. I do remember those screaming mobs of white people burning Bush in effigy and with signs calling for soldiers to be shot, though I do not remember any polls regarding that.
Kos has already apologized for the mis-leading information, yesterday on the front page of the site.
He's also published the complete analysis of the R2K polling, so there is no need to guess about what the allegations are. Just go to dailykos.com and read the report.
I'll give Kos kudos for two things. First, he always published the cross tabs of the R2K polls, specifically so people coule independently examine the data. His goal was to make other media outlets rise to his higher standard, so it's ironic the R2K polling turned out to be "bunk". Still it shows Kos was right to demand all media expose their polling data to independent scrutiny.
Second, after the three stat wizards made their allegations, Kos said he'd publish their findings if they would submit to independent peer review. They did and Kos got that report late last week.
Instead of publishing his retraction in a "cliched" Friday evening bad news dump, he held off publishing it till yesterday so it won't get "buried" during the weekend.
Gee, what's the beef? Maybe they're the same statisticians that brought you the global warming hockey stick graph?
I had a site like this once, but I got so much spam I had to close it. You seem to be doing a better job keeping out the spammers! Congratulations!