GOP At Historic Enthusiasm Highs
GOP voters are more enthusiastic about casting their midterm election ballots than at any point in recent history, according to new figures from Gallup.
An average of 59% of GOPers and independents who lean toward the party say they are more enthusiastic about casting their ballots than usual, the data show -- the latest troubling sign for Dems facing a difficult electoral landscape in the fall.
That level of GOP enthusiasm is far higher than either party has experienced in the past 2 decades. In '94, when the GOP took control of Congress, just 42% of the party's voters said they were more enthusiastic about voting in midterms than usual, a 10-point advantage over Dems.
In '06, before Dems took over both gavels, 50% of the party's voters were more enthusiastic. That number was also 10 points higher than GOP voters' numbers.
This year, GOPers have a 15-point advantage in voter enthusiasm, a higher gap than ever. Painting a bleaker picture, a recent USA Today/Gallup survey showed 35% of Dems were more enthusiastic than normal, while 56% said they were less enthusiastic to vote.
The correlation between the party's enthusiasm and its wins that fall isn't perfect -- in '94 and '02, 2 cycles in which the GOP picked up 54 and 8 seats, respectively, GOP voters weren't more enthusiastic about voting. But Dems have seen a definite decline in enthusiasm, giving GOPers reason to be hopeful.
After the jump, enthusiasm trend lines, courtesy of Gallup.
GOP Voters Who Were ___
Enthusiastic About Voting More Less (M-L) 2010 59% 31% +28 2006 40 41 -1 2002 42 42 0 1998 40 41 -1 1994 42 43 -1
Dem Voters Who Were ___
Enthusiastic About Voting More Less (M-L) 2010 44% 44% 0 2006 50 40 +10 2002 38 46 -8 1998 36 46 -10 1994 32 50 -18
In Nov. Americans will elect the most Republicans to the House since 1928.
Every race counts this year! While it shouldn't be enough for a candidate to have "Republican" by their name, the trend in early primaries has been for good solid fiscal conservatives running as Republicans to win their primaries, so it's a safer bet than ever that a Vote Republican is a Vote for Fiscal Sanity. Let's Clean House (and Senate) in 2010!