Independents Souring On Obama
A series of focus groups of voters in 5 states conducted for the conservative non-profit group Resurgent Republic found that while independent voters have soured on Obama, they haven't abandoned him completely. However, independents who identified themselves as part of the Tea Party movement, have "turned the page" on the president said GOP pollster Glen Bolger.
These groups, held in Des Moines, IA, Cincinnati, OH, Cherry Hill, NJ, Little Rock, AR and Orlando, FL, were comprised of registered or self-identified independents who said they were undecided on the congressional ballot test.
Bolger, who conducted the Des Moines group of Tea Party independents, described them as "more frustrated than angry" but said they had no "optimism or hope for the future."
Moreover, write Resurgent Republic Directors Ed Gillespie, Whit Ayres and Leslie Sanchez, these voters are "entrenched in their belief that Pres. Obama is all style and no substance." When asked to describe what kind of car Obama would be, one man compared him to an Edsel, "something that had a lot of hype, but failed to live up to expectations."
In analyzing the focus group of more traditional independents in Orlando, GOP pollster Jan van Lohuizen came to the conclusion that 2 issues, health care and the BP spill, were what ultimately soured these voters on Obama. On health care, van Lohuizen blames the process of the health care debate more than the substance for turning off independents. As for BP, they are disappointed that they "don't see strong leadership" from the president.
However, these voters aren't exactly sold on GOPers either. The Resurgent memo notes that these indies have "an equal dislike for both political parties," and some believe that "divided government would only lead to more bickering."
But, notes van Lohuizen, while these voters may be persuaded to come back to Obama in '12, they are "pretty well lost" to the Democrats for this fall.
How can Obama win them back? One way is for GOPers to screw up. If GOPers do take control of Congress, they'll "have to deliver," said Gillespie. If they can't, voters will be more than willing to throw them out too.
Actually, this isn't so much of a surprise, in the wake of a poll that shows Scott Brown has a higher approval rating (55%) over Barack Obama (54%) in Massachusetts.
Their indicator is independents who identify as part of the Tea Party?!? Those are true independents, those are very conservative voters, most of whom are not Republican because the Republican party is not conservative enough. Funny statement that these people have soured on Obama - they soured on him back in 2004 when he announced his candidacy for Senator.
Of course divided government will lead to more bickering. That's a good thing. The advantage of divided government is that all voices are heard and have actual impact on the legislation. When both parties have real power, the bickering leads to better and more fiscally responsible legislation - unlike the impotent bickering of the minority party during the Stimulus and Healthcare debates, resulting in fiscally irresponsible legislative hairballs. And if the GOP does manage to take one legislative house or the other in 2010 - this is one independent who will indeed be coming back to Barack Obama in 2012 (even though I did not vote for him the first time). I am no more interested in returning to One Party Republican Rule than I am of continuing the current disastrous One Party Democratic Rule.
FWIW - enjoyed the post and included it in my most recent Carnival of Divided Government" compilation.