Southern House Previews: VA, SC On The Clock

More looks at states holding primaries on Tuesday:

SC-01: There are 9 GOPers running for retiring Rep. Henry Brown's (R) relatively safe seat, including 2 legacies in late-Sen. Thurmond son/atty Paul Thurmond (R) and late-Gov. Campbell son Carroll "Tumpy" Campbell (R). But despite their famous names, none of the race's original 8 appeared to be catching fire early in the contest. State Rep. Tim Scott (R) saw an opening, and entered the race. He immediately won the Club for Growth's endorsement, and according to the Club's own polling, he holds a big lead over the field. Still, with such a large field, the nominee likely will be decided in a June 22 runoff. But if Scott does perform strongly on Tuesday, the quick turnaround gives the candidate with the most cash a big advantage.

SC-03: It's almost a given that GOPers will hold on to retiring Rep. Gresham Barrett's (R) seat. But what's less obvious is who will make the all-important June 22 runoff in this 6-candidate primary.

State Rep. Rex Rice (R) has picked up the endorsement of ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R). Meanwhile, state Rep. Jeff Duncan (R) has picked up ex-TN Sen. Fred Thompson's (R) support, along with that of the Club for Growth. A third candidate, '01 SC-02 candidate/businessman Joe Grimaud (R), has made himself a player by putting over $400K of his own cash into the contest.

Those 3 have risen to the top, but considering the wide-open nature of the race, this is anyone's ballgame.

SC-04: Rep. Bob Inglis (R) is running the race of his life against a field of GOPers who believe he has changed since his first stint in Cong. ended in '96. His strongest challenger is 7th Circuit Solicitor Trey Gowdy (R), who attacks Inglis for voting for TARP and for believing climate change is caused by humans.

Those are not popular positions in the CD, and Inglis himself publicly says he expects this to go to a runoff. He tries to rally conservative support by pointing out his strong NRA and pro-life record, but his more moderate image -- and his TARP vote -- may cost him his seat in his heavily GOP CD.

VA-02: By most accounts, car dealer Scott Rigell (R) should be the GOPer that emerges from the 6-candidate field to take on vulnerable freshmen Rep. Glenn Nye (D). He's got biggest endorsements (from his friend, popular VA Gov. Bob McDonnell) and the most cash (at over $1.2M, he's raised the most money). And, at least in his own polling, he's got a huge lead.

But some conservative grassroots organizations -- including the 2K-member Hampton Roads Tea Party -- have endorsed businessman Ben Loyola (R) and others, mostly because they see Rigell's $1K donation to Pres. Obama as a slap in the face to the GOP. They also believe a vote against NRCC "Young Gun" Rigell represents a strike against the establishment.

Still, a victory by any other GOPer would make a race against Nye much tougher for the party to win. With his cash and connections, Rigell would give the GOP an excellent shot at picking up this GOP-leaning seat. He benefits, too, because VA has no runoff election.

One potential problem: ex-VA GOP Chair Kenny Golden is running as an indie in the fall. He likely wouldn't be well funded, and he'd have a tough time getting himself known, but if he found a way to dig out 5% he could really create some problems for the GOP nominee.

VA-05: This GOP primary in Rep. Tom Perriello's (D) GOP-leaning territory closely mirrors the VA-02 contest. Both have established frontrunners that are faves of the national party (here it's state Sen. Robert Hurt); both contests have huge fields (VA-05 has 7 GOPers); and both have frontrunners who tout polls showing big leads late in the contest (Hurt leads by 25 in his own survey).

And, like VA-02, the frontrunner is perceived by some Tea Partiers and conservatives as having flaws. In Hurt's case, it's that he voted in '04 for then-Gov. Mark Warner's (D) budget, which included a large tax increase. Hurt says he now regrets the vote.

But the fragmented field should help Hurt win the race. Every month brings a new favorite in the anti-Hurt sweepstakes; this month it appears to be teacher/activist Feda Kidd Morton (R), and in the past it's been Albemarle Co. Commis. Ken Boyd (R) and real estate investor Laurence Verga (R). None have appeared to catch on, and none appear to have spent enough money to make a real dent in Hurt's lead.

A few of the candidates have begun airing TV ads, but considering VA rarely holds primaries, the likely universe of voters will be very small, so most candidates are waging their campaigns with mailers. Because none of his rivals appears to have coalesced the majority of the anti-Hurt vote, Hurt should win.

But while that'd be good news for GOPers, it could also mean that a disaffected conservative third-party candidate could enter the general; at least one has promised to do so if Hurt takes the prize. Depending on how serious that candidate turns out to be, that could be a big blow to the GOP's chances of taking back this very winnable seat in Southside VA.

VA-11: The GOP badly wants Rep. Gerry Connolly's (D) suburban Fairfax Co. CD back. But first, the party will have to survive a primary between Fairfax Co. Supv. Pat Herrity (R) and '08 nominee/businessman Keith Fimian (R). The 2 could not differ more in tone: Herrity has a calm demeanor, while Fimian is a favorite of the Tea Party crowd and can be exciteable.

Fimian has attacked Herrity in TV ads for voting to raise property taxes -- a charge Herrity denies -- while Herrity swung back with a mailer that accused Fimian of failing to pay $16K in property taxes.

Both say they are pro-life, but many well-known social conservatives have lined up behind Fimian's bid. Fimian also has a cash advantage: he's outspent Herrity by $200K, and still had $400K left in the bank in mid-May, while Herrity had just $100K.

Both say their internal polling shows them leading the race. But while Herrity disputed Fimian's recently released numbers, he hasn't produced his own survey lately to counter Fimian's claims. Herrity started the race with the name ID advantage -- and both candidates agree, the lead. But has big Fimian's cash advantage been able to overcome that?