July 2010

Rep. Charles Rangel (D-NY) admitted that he had a "bad day" 7/29 when the ethics cmte officially charged him on 13 counts of misconduct. Friday wasn't much better.

Not only did several more of his fellow House Dems call for his resignation, including Reps. Zack Space (D-OH), Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH), Debbie Halvorson (D-IL), Paul Hodes (D-NH) and John Yarmuth (D-KY), but the first Member of the NY delegation also called for the ex-Ways and Means Chair to step down.

Rep. Michael Arcuri (D-NY), who represents a Utica-based swing district in Upstate NY, told Gannett that Rangel should consider resigning because the situation "is beginning to affect our ability to govern."

"Only Congressman Rangel knows what, if anything, he did wrong," Arcuri said. "But there comes a time when the whole becomes greater than the sum of the parts. I think we are at that point right now."

Arcuri is one of the most junior members of the NY Dem delegation, which has otherwise been loyal to Rangel. But he also faces a very difficult re-election race against businessman Richard Hanna (R), who surprised many by coming unexpectedly close to defeating Arcuri in '08. That likely played a strong role in the Dem's call for Rangel to step down.

So far, ten Dems have called on Rangel to resign, and all but Yarmuth look to face tough races in the fall. The other Dems are Reps. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ), Betty Sutton (D-OH), Walt Minnick (D-ID) and Patrick Murphy (D-PA).

There are reports that the ethics cmte is reviewing a deal for Rangel to avoid a trial in mid-Sept., but GOPers sounded 7/29 as though a trial will go forward. Dems want to avoid the circus of a fall trial that will likely become a big talking point for GOPers during the heated general election period. Will today's plethora of resignation calls become a trend?

Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) announced late today that he would not vote to confirm Elena Kagan to the SCOTUS, becoming the first member of Pres. Obama's party to oppose one of his nominees to the high court.

Nelson issued a vague, late afternoon statement in which he first said he would vote for cloture if the GOP attempted to filibuster Kagan's nomination. But, ultimately, he said she had not earned his support.

"I have heard concerns from Nebraskans regarding Ms. Kagan, and her lack of a judicial record makes it difficult for me to discount the concerns raised by Nebraskans, or to reach a level of comfort that these concerns are unfounded," Nelson said. "Therefore, I will not vote to confirm Ms. Kagan's nomination."

Nelson's offer to split the baby is likely to be irrelevant, however. With five GOPers now committed to supporting Kagan, it is highly doubtful that Nelson's vote would be needed to break a filibuster.

Nelson's announcement also came as a surprise. After he met with Kagan on May 19, Nelson said in a statement that Kagan "demonstrated that she understands that the judicial branch must apply the law, not seek to pursue an agenda and make law, which is the role of a legislator."

"I believe she respects the Constitution, settled law and precedent, which are the foundation upon which a member of the Supreme Court must rely," Nelson continued. "It will be up to her to explain further how her previous experience and background have prepared her for a seat on the nation's high court."

Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH) announced late today that he would support Solicitor Gen. Elena Kagan's SCOTUS nomination, becoming the fifth GOPer to signal his support for Pres. Obama's second appointee to the high court.

"Ms. Kagan and I may have different political philosophies," Gregg said in a statement, "but I believe that the confirmation process should be based on qualifications, not ideological litmus tests or political affiliation."

Gregg, who was Obama's second Commerce Sec.-designate before quickly withdrawing from consideration in Feb. '09, voted for Sonia Sotomayor's SCOTUS nomination last year, and also supported Kagan for solicitor gen.

A full Senate vote on Kagan is expected next week, perhaps on Fri., according to CongressDaily's Dan Friedman. We'll continue to keep close tabs on the vote count each weekday until roll is called.

A note on methodology: We assume a vast majority -- if not all -- of the Dem caucus will vote to confirm Kagan. But we're going to be sticklers for a firm 'yes' -- or the very strong hint of a 'yes' in an interview. GOP 'yes' votes are in italics.

YES VOTES: 28
Sens. Michael Bennet (report), Roland Burris (statement), Ben Cardin (statement), Susan Collins (statement), Chris Dodd (statement), Byron Dorgan (statement), Dick Durbin (floor speech, 7/12), Russ Feingold (statement), Dianne Feinstein (statement, Al Franken (interview), Lindsey Graham (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), Judd Gregg (statement), Tim Johnson (report), Ted Kaufman (statement), Amy Klobuchar (interview), Patrick Leahy (statement), Dick Lugar (statement), Claire McCaskill (report), Jeff Merkley (report), Patty Murray (statement), Jack Reed (statement), Chuck Schumer (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), Jeanne Shaheen (report), Olympia Snowe (statement), Arlen Specter (op-ed), Debbie Stabenow (statement), Mark Udall (statement), Sheldon Whitehouse (interview).

NO VOTES: 23
Sens. Lamar Alexander (statement), Bob Bennett (statement), Jim Bunning (statement), Richard Burr (statement), Saxby Chambliss (statement), Tom Coburn (op-ed), John Cornyn (statement), Jim DeMint (op-ed), John Ensign (statement), Chuck Grassley (statement), Orrin Hatch (statement), Jim Inhofe (statement), Johnny Isakson (statement), Mike Johanns (statement), Jon Kyl (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), John McCain (op-ed), Mitch McConnell (statement), Lisa Murkowski (statement), Jeff Sessions (op-ed), Richard Shelby (statement), John Thune (statement), David Vitter (statement), Roger Wicker (report).

Sunday

Meet the Press hosts Adm. Mike Mullen, NYC Mayor Mike Bloomberg (I), ex-Fed Chair Alan Greenspan, PA Gov. Ed Rendell (D), presidential historian Doris Kearns Goodwin and Time's Mark Halperin .

Face the Nation hosts Adm. Mike Mullen, Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ), Council on Foreign Relations' Richard Haass and Mexican American Legal Defense and Educational Fund Tom Saenz.

This Week hosts Speaker Nancy Pelosi, Defense sec Robert Gates, Dem strategist Donna Brazile, New York Times' Paul Krugman, author Ahmed Rashid and ABC's George Will.

Fox News Sunday hosts Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell (KY), House Min. Leader John Boehner (OH), ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R).

State of the Union hosts Sens. Carl Levin (D-MI) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC).

Other Weekend Shows

Political Capital features GOP Conference Chairman Mike Pence (Bloomberg, FRI, 6:30pm).

Washington Week features NBC's Pete Williams, ABC's Martha Raddatz and Washington Post's Karen Tumulty (PBS, FRI, 8pm).

Situation Room features Pinal Co. Sheriff Paul Babeu, Pakistani Amb. to the U.S. Husain Haqqani, MI Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D) and NUL's Marc Morial (CNN, SAT, 6:30pm).

Communicators features ACA CEO Matthew Polka. Guest reporter Wall Street Journal's Amy Schatz (C-SPAN, SAT, 6:30pm).

Huckabee hosts TBD (FNC, SAT, 8pm).

Chris Matthews Show features HDNet's Dan Rather, Time's Richard Stengel, New York Times' Helene Cooper and AP's Kimberly Dozier (NBC, SUN, check local listings).

Wall Street Journal Report features Uni. of Penn. prof. Jeremy Siegel, NEC dir. Lawrence Summers, Bon Appetit's Barbara Fairchild and the "Chopper"'s Grant Di Mille and Samira Mahboubian(SUN, 10am/6pm).

Newsmakers hosts Chief Dep. Min. Whip Kevin McCarthy (CA). Guest reporters are USA Today's Kathy Kiely and Tribune Co.'s Lisa Mascaro (C-SPAN, SUN, 10am/6pm).

Reliable Sources segment features ex-USA Today editor Lauren Ashburn, GWU prof. Frank Sesno, Baltimore Sun's David Zurawik, CBS' Chip Reid and New York Times' Bill Keller (CNN, SUN, 10am).

GPS features TBD(CNN, SUN, 1pm).

Q & A features author W. Joseph Campbell (C-SPAN, SUN, 8pm).

Next week's Republican gubernatorial primaries in Michigan and Tennessee will likely determine the next governors of those two vote-rich states, but also could provide a playbook for Mitt Romney in the '12 presidential primary.

That's because the current GOP frontrunners in both races, Rick Snyder and Bill Haslam, have run to the political center, an uncommon tack in a primary but one that's paying off given the multi-candidate fields. Neither state has a runoff, allowing the winner to win a plurality w/ moderates and even some crossover voters.

Like Romney, both Snyder and Haslam also have been running on their business backgrounds, and have spent plenty of their own money into the races to propel them into the lead. Romney, likewise, has an early and sizable fundraising edge and can also self-fund.

The Michigan primary should be particularly compelling to Romney, given that it's his home state, and a critical '12 battleground. Snyder's boasting of being a turnaround specialist is almost identical to Romney's expected message, one that will be more business-focused than in '08. The economic recession has hit Michigan as hard as any state, and for Republicans to have a shot at defeating Obama in 2012 (with an economic contrast message), they'll need to put it in play.

Much of Snyder and Haslam's success has as much to do with circumstance as the current ideological mood of the country. The GOP base is fired up across the country, but in these races, support is split up between multiple conservative candidates (Wamp/Ramsey in TN, Cox/Hoekstra/Bouchard in MI). Looking ahead, Romney could benefit from a similar scenario, facing a slew of conservatives (Daniels/Thune/Santorum) splitting up attention and the activist vote.

After all, that's how John McCain won the GOP nomination in '08, Dole in '96 and ditto George H.W. Bush in '88. All were disliked by the base, but won regardless. History could well repeat itself in '12.

AG Mike Cox, Rep. Pete Hoekstra and businessman Rick Snyder are locked in a tight race for the MI GOV GOP nod just days before the Aug. 3 primary, according to a new poll released today.

Snyder has emerged with a slight lead in the poll, conducted for the Detroit Free Press and a consortium of local TV stations by EPIC MRA. Snyder claims 26% of likely primary voters, but Cox, at 24%, and Hoekstra, at 23%, are close behind.

Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard is at 10%, and state Sen. Tom George earns just 1%, with 14% remaining undecided.

One month ago, Cox led the GOP field at 26%, with Hoesktra (24%), Snyder (20%) and Bouchard (16%) within striking distance.

EPIC MRA pollster Bernie Porn credits Snyder's rise since the June survey to "his heavy TV advertising, people like him, and his strong crossover appeal."

"If he were to win the nomination," Porn told WXYZ-TV, one of the poll's sponsors, "he would be the toughest Republican candidate for Democrats to beat."

Despite his TV presence, Snyder still doesn't have the name ID of his GOP competitors. But that has its advantages. While half of likely voters view Cox favorably, 31% have an unfavorable impression of the AG. Hoesktra's fav/unfav stands at 52%/20%.

But Snyder has little of the baggage that his elected-official opponents are carrying. While less than half, 48%, view him favorably, just 10% have an unfavorable impression of Snyder, who has hit local TV with his quirky "One Tough Nerd" ad campaign.

The poll was conducted July 26-27. ERIC MRA surveyed 400 likely GOP primary voters, for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

A Dem primary poll, released Wednesday, showed Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero edging in front of state House Speaker Andy Dillon for their party's nod, 40-34%. That was a shift from June, when Dillon led Bernero by 10 points, 34-24%.

Congressional Dems and GOPers are pessimistic about the prospects for a bi-partisan deal on extending the Bush tax cuts-at least not before the election-according to the latest National Journal Congressional Insiders Poll. House and Senate Democrats and Republicans were asked if they thought the two parties would be able to come to a compromise on extending the Bush tax cuts that are set to expire on December 31, 2010. If Congress does nothing before then, taxes on earned income, capital gains and dividends will rise.

Among the 38 House and Senate Dems who responded to the poll this week, only 21% thought the two parties could work together while 76 percent said they didn't think that would be the case. GOP Congressional Insiders were almost just as skeptical: 61% of the 38 who participated in the poll said they weren't expecting a bi-partisan compromise, while 37 percent said they thought one was possible. Most of the respondents in both parties are members of the House of Representatives where Democrats can prevail on a party-line vote while Democrats in the Senate, which is supposed to take up the extension in September, will need to muster 60 votes to overcome a potential filibuster.

Many Dem Congressional Insiders simply believe the GOP doesn't want to deal on anything before the election. Said one, "There is no incentive for Republicans to come to the table now that they have mapped their November strategy of refusing to compromise." Indeed, that sentiment was shared by some GOP Congressional Insiders. As one put it, "Just about the only thing that could save the Democrats' majority is the GOP agreeing to a tax increase."

For the full results to the poll and all the comments click here.

The Arizona immigration ruling yesterday has the potential to shake up the '10 landscape, but strategists are still trying to game out the national implications. The reality is that it's very tricky because immigration is as much a regional issue as a partisan one.

One thing's for sure: Several leading GOP and Dem SEN candidates are going to face a helluva time balancing their base without alienating indies/Hispanics, starting with GOPers running in Hispanic-heavy states like Marco Rubio (FL), Mark Kirk (IL), and Carly Fiorina (CA). Sharron Angle (NV) also fits the group, and she's already come out a-blazing against the ruling. That's encouraging news for Reid (NV), who needs Hispanics to turn out to win.

But in heavily-white, conservative SEN seats, the pitfalls are just as large for Dems. Brad Ellsworth (IN) ran as a border hawk in '06, but doesn't even mention it on his campaign site now. Same with Robin Carnahan (MO), a strong Dem candidate running in a state where Obama is unpopular and Hispanics make up 2% of the vote.

In House races so far, immigration has come up primarily in border districts. GOPers throughout the country are much more likely to address immigration on their campaign sites, per a new Smart Politics study. Money stat: Only 40 House Dems mentioned immigration issues on their websites, a number well less than the number of targeted incumbents.

The CW is that immigration favors GOP short-term, Dem long-term, though right now the nat'l mood strongly favors the AZ law. But for those not paying attention to their constituents and districts closely on the subject, it could be a damaging issue for them at the worst time.

Hotline Associate Writer Allan Bradley compiled a tally of the leading GOV/SEN/House candidates and their reactions to the ruling, for your perusal (below the jump):

It's hard to say at this point which Kentucky Senate candidate is more eager to gain distance from their party establishment.

After badgering ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) repeatedly for waffling on his support for Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell (R), AG Jack Conway (D) is now hedging on whether he would support Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D-NV).

In an interview on WHAS Radio on 7/28, Conway was asked whether Reid should be reelected as the Dems' leader.

"Well, it's interesting, Rand Paul was trying to bait me on this last week at the Farm Bureau forum," Conway said. "I guess because he's claiming I was going to vote for Harry Reid, I guess he's throwing Sharon Angle under the bus, saying that Harry Reid is going to be reelected in Nevada."

"I don't know," Conway added. "We don't know the outcome of that race in Nevada. I don't know the outcome of a lot of these races and that kind of falls in the category of 'measuring the drapes.'"

"What I will do is I will go up there and cast my ballot for someone that I respect, someone that I think will be a good leader, and someone who will always listen to me when it comes to representing the interests of Kentucky."

In the wake of Tuesday night's vote in the House on the Afghanistan war funding bill which 102 House Dems opposed, the latest Congressional Insiders Poll offers more signs of restiveness among Dems over the Afghan conflict.

In this week's survey, 76% of the 38 House and Senate Democrats who responded said that they wanted the Obama administration to consider a timetable for withdrawing more rapidly from Afghanistan. Last year Pres. Obama announced that troops would begin to be withdrawn from Afghanistan in July 2011, he but did not set a firm exit date for U.S. forces. Since then, various administration officials have suggested that conditions in the field could affect the pace of the drawdown.

Among the 38 House and Senate GOPers who responded, 89 percent said the administration should not consider a faster timetable for withdrawing. But that should hardly be taken as a great vote of confidence in Obama's conduct of the war. Several GOPers criticized the strategy of using a timetable. Others said that the new field commander there, Gen. David Petraeus, needs more time to figure out what's the best strategy for allied forces. And as one GOP Congressional Insider said, "The White House needs to get its head out of the sand and start educating the public about why this fight is critical to our national security." That hardly sounds like a fan.

Ironically, when the Congressional Insiders were asked just one month ago about how much confidence they had in the Obama administration's conduct of the war in Afghanistan, 13 percent of the Democrats said they were very confident and 51 percent said they were somewhat confident. This probably reflects the reluctance of many Democrats to question so directly the President as commander-in-chief. At the same time, among the GOP Congressional Insiders, 17 percent said they not confident at all and 54 percent said they not very confident in the administration's conduct of the war.

For all the results to the latest poll and all the Congressional Insider comments click here.

The DCCC announced ad buys in 60 districts in the past week, including in 54 seats they currently hold. Where their buys occur follows the pattern identified by National Journal's Ronald Brownstein in "The Four Quadrants of Congress": the lower the level of diversity and white education in a district, the more likely the seat is to lean Republican.

Many of these ads will likely air during NASCAR races: of the 54 seats the DCCC is spending on, fully 29 are in districts where whites make up 70% or more of the district's population and the percentage of whites with bachelor's degrees is below the national average of 30.4%. The DCCC is nervous enough to buy ad time in nearly half of these "NASCAR districts" that they hold: 29 of 66 seats.

Most of these vulnerable Dems are freshmen and sophomores like Reps. Perriello (D-VA), Schauer (D-MI) and Space (D-OH); many others are seats held by long-serving, culturally conservative Dems like Reps. Stupak (D-MI), Kanjorski (D-PA) and Skelton (D-MO). The already-high number of vulnerable low-education, heavily-white Dem districts excludes two Dem-held open seats House Race Hotline editor Tim Sahd ranks as among the most likely to flip, and where Democrats have presumably thrown in the towel: retiring Rep. Bart Gordon's (D-TN) seat and ex-Rep. Eric Massa's (D-NY) old seat.

These low-education, low-minority districts already tilt Republican, with the GOP holding 89 of 155 seats. If they are going to get the wave election they're hoping for, they'll need to make plenty of splashes here.

Conversely, Dems are feeling pretty confident in districts where at least three in ten people are nonwhite and where more whites have at least a bachelor's degree than the national average. The DCCC bought TV time in just five of these districts. Dems already hold 83 of the 113 high-minority, high-education seats. The DCCC's few offensive opportunities are in districts with many minorities (Mario Diaz-Balart's seat in FL-25, Castle's seat in DE), many educated whites (Kirk's seat in IL-10), or a combination of the two (Djou in HI-01, Cao in LA-02).

Democrats are playing defense in less-educated, whiter districts because those voters were the least likely to support Pres. Obama in the 2008 elections: 58% supported McCain. They're also the most overtly hostile towards his economic policies. According to a recent Society for Human Resource Management/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, just 37% of non-college whites thought Obama's economic policies would do more to improve conditions over the next few years than those of ex-Pres. George W. Bush, while 41% of college-educated whites and 66% of nonwhites prefer Obama's policies (20% of both college- and non-college whites and 7% of nonwhites said neither would help).

It's too early to write off all Dems in these less educated, low-minority districts, as Rep. Critz's (D-PA) special-election victory in May showed. Still, many of these Dems, especially those who voted with their party on the big bills, might want to kick their engines into high gear this August, and motor as far away from Obama as possible.

THE FULL LIST (below the jump):

Marco Rubio (R-FL) is one of the key candidates to watch in order to read how the immigration ruling is playing politically. He's locked up the Republican nomination in a state with a significant Hispanic population, and doesn't have to worry as much about the GOP base now that Charlie Crist has left the primary field and moving to the left. But he's also become a national conservative darling, and has gone to great lengths to avoid offending the base on immigration.

Rubio offered his first reaction to the immigration ruling in an interview with Politics Daily's Matt Lewis yesterday - and didn't offer too much clarity on his position.

Just to be clear, I opposed racial profiling, and to their credit, the Arizona Legislature changed that law. And because they did, obviously that law is more palatable -- and legally more palatable. I think the decision today is important to understand, number one, why do we even have an Arizona law? And that's because the federal government hasn't done its job. And the second thing we need to remind ourselves is that the court hasn't thrown the law out. What they did was they basically postponed implementation until certain issues are resolved with it...I think at the end of the day, the law is going to be upheld. Arizona has a 10th Amendment right to provide for the public safety of their residents, and to do so by enforcing existing federal immigration law.

Rubio avoided answering the question directly, going back to his previous talking points on the issue. But to be sure, the Florida political press will be grilling him further on immigration in the coming days. Watch closely to see if he thinks it's more beneficial to curry favor with the sizable (and growing) Hispanic population or to agree with the majority of Americans who, in polls, have offered support for the Arizona measure.

(And make sure to check in with the Hotline this afternoon, where we will be keeping track of all the major Congressional candidates' positioning on the AZ ruling.)

Quinnipiac is out this morning with a new Florida poll that that two free-spending political neophytes, FL GOV Rick Scott (R) and FL SEN candidate Jeff Greene (D), are in strong position to capture their party's respective nominations.

Scott leads AG Bill McCollum 43 to 32 percent. Greene leads Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) by 11 points, 33 to 22 percent. Both candidates are well-financed for the final month of the campaign, boasting significant fundraising advantages due to their personal fortunes.

If both prevail, it will make for a wild and unpredictable fall campaign. Both establishment favorites - AG Bill McCollum (R) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) - have hinted they won't be endorsing their primary rivals A Greene victory would also be terrific news for Gov. Charlie Crist (I), allowing the Dem establishment to quietly get behind the governor without losing face, giving him a real chance at forging a plurality of Dems and indies.

Rep. Paul Hodes (D) trails both ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R) and businessman Bill Binnie (R) in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH), according to a new poll released today, though there are indications the race may be tightening.

The Granite State Poll, conducted by the UNH Survey Center, shows Ayotte leading Hodes among likely voters, 45-37%. Binnie leads Hodes by a smaller margin, 41-38%.

While Hodes still finds himself behind the two leading GOP candidates, he has cut Ayotte's lead nearly in half over the past few months. In an April Granite State Poll, Ayotte led Hodes by 15 points.

The poll represents the fourth public poll this week to show encouraging news for Senate Dems, after automated polls showed leads for Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid in NV and Treas. Alexi Giannoulias in IL. Another automated survey taken by a Dem pollster over the weekend and released Tuesday showed Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) leading her race by a larger margin than recent polling has indicated.

During the past three months, Ayotte's candidacy has taken a hit. While opinions of Hodes are stagnant since April, Ayotte's unfavorable rating has doubled over that time period. The rise in her disapproval ratings coincide with Sarah Palin's endorsement of her candidacy, a move that boosted her stature in the primary but likely cost her support with non-conservative voters.

Sen. Olympia Snowe (R-ME) today became the fourth GOPer to announce she will support Solicitor Gen. Elena Kagan's SCOTUS nomination when the Senate votes next week. Snowe joins her fellow Mainer, Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME), in crossing the aisle to vote for Kagan.

"Throughout my tenure in the Senate, I have applied a uniform standard for evaluating nominees for the United States Supreme Court, under both Republican and Democratic administrations," Snowe said in a statement. "I find that Ms. Kagan has met that standard with the strong intellect, respect for the rule of law, and understanding of the important but limited role of the Supreme Court that I believe is required of any Justice."

According to our whip count, fully half of senators have declared their intentions on the Kagan vote. We'll continue to keep close tabs on the vote count each weekday until roll is called.

A note on methodology: We assume a vast majority -- if not all -- of the Dem caucus will vote to confirm Kagan. But we're going to be sticklers for a firm 'yes' -- or the very strong hint of a 'yes' in an interview. GOP 'yes' votes are in italics.

YES VOTES: 27
Sens. Michael Bennet (report), Roland Burris (statement), Ben Cardin (statement), Susan Collins (statement), Chris Dodd (statement), Byron Dorgan (statement), Dick Durbin (floor speech, 7/12), Russ Feingold (statement), Dianne Feinstein (statement, Al Franken (interview), Lindsey Graham (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), Tim Johnson (report), Ted Kaufman (statement), Amy Klobuchar (interview), Patrick Leahy (statement), Dick Lugar (statement), Claire McCaskill (report), Jeff Merkley (report), Patty Murray (statement), Jack Reed (statement), Chuck Schumer (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), Jeanne Shaheen (report), Olympia Snowe (statement), Arlen Specter (op-ed), Debbie Stabenow (statement), Mark Udall (statement), Sheldon Whitehouse (interview).

NO VOTES: 23
Sens. Lamar Alexander (statement), Bob Bennett (statement), Jim Bunning (statement), Richard Burr (statement), Saxby Chambliss (statement), Tom Coburn (op-ed), John Cornyn (statement), Jim DeMint (op-ed), John Ensign (statement), Chuck Grassley (statement), Orrin Hatch (statement), Jim Inhofe (statement), Johnny Isakson (statement), Mike Johanns (statement), Jon Kyl (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), John McCain (op-ed), Mitch McConnell (statement), Lisa Murkowski (statement), Jeff Sessions (op-ed), Richard Shelby (statement), John Thune (statement), David Vitter (statement), Roger Wicker (report).

A federal judge's decision today to block the implementation of parts of the Arizona immigration law will bring the hot-button issue front-and-center, and create challenging decisions for both parties' leading Senate candidates.

For Democrats, it looks like a blessing in California (Boxer), Florida, Illinois (Kirk), Nevada (Reid) putting Republican candidates on the defensive in states with crucial Hispanic voting blocs. (Marco Rubio, in particular, has been straddling the immigration fence, hoping to rally support with both Cuban-American voters and rally the heavily-white conservatives along the Panhandle.)

But Democrats in more culturally-conservative states also face a tough dilemma. Brad Ellsworth (IN), Blanche Lincoln (AR), Robin Carnahan (MO), Jack Conway (KY) and Charlie Melancon (LA) are facing conservative electorates in states with small Hispanic populations, where public opinion has been supportive of the Arizona law.

Immigration has become less of a partisan issue and more of a regional issue in recent years - that's sure to be reflected as candidates come out with their reactions.

Democratic National Committee chairman Tim Kaine will be accusing GOP leaders of being beholden to the Tea Party's agenda at a press conference this morning, mocking Republican plans to offer voters a legislative commitment modeled after the Contract with America.

As part of its initiative, the DNC is launching a website accusing Republicans of supporting a legislative blueprint in line with the Tea Party movement that includes repeal of the health care law and Wall Street reform, extending tax breaks, privatization of Social Security and the elimination of the Department of Education and the Department of Energy.

"The Tea Party is now an institutionalized part of the Republican party. They are one and the same," a DNC operative said, previewing Kaine's speech. "The positions espoused by the Tea Party is the governing platform of the Republican party. And as voters make their choice this fall it's important to understand what the Republican-Tea Party wants to do if elected."

The DNC's decision to take on the Tea Party is a throwback to the party's initial criticism of the movement last year, as it arrived on the political scene - derisively referring to them as "tea baggers" (remember Pelosi's Astroturf comments?). But as disaffected voters began protesting en masse against the administration's health care and stimulus proposals last year, the Tea Party registered favorable ratings - better than both major parties -- forcing Democratic leaders to tone down their public criticism of the activists.

As the Tea Party movement received more national attention and scrutiny, its influence has grown but its overall popularity has declined. A Washington Post/ABC News poll last month showed a 50 percent majority of respondents hold a negative view of the Tea Party with 36 percent viewing it favorably - a downward trend. But a new poll conducted by Democratic pollsters Stan Greenberg and James Carville found that about one-quarter of the electorate identifies with the movement and 94 percent say they plan to vote this year-- an awfully large swath of voters to alienate.

Indeed, the Democratic polling firm Public Policy Polling concluded Tea Party enthusiasts "could end up being the most important group of people at the polls this fall."

On the ground, Tea Party-backed Senate candidates Sharron Angle and Rand Paul upset the GOP establishment favorites in Nevada and Kentucky, but their unadulterated libertarian/conservative philosophy alienated independent voters, putting potential slam-dunk pickup opportunities within reach for Democrats. (It's clear NRSC chairman John Cornyn doesn't see the Tea Party and Republican party as the same.)

Democrats clearly figure the easiest way to disqualify Republican challengers is by connecting them to the more politically-unpopular views of the opposition. It's a sign that they need to rally their own base to have a fighting shot in this year's midterms, and have given up winning over disaffected independents who are as motivated as ever to show up at the polls.

Updated 5:43 a.m.

Rep./ex-LG Mary Fallin (R-OK) won the OK GOV GOP primary in convincing fashion, easily defeating state Sen. Randy Brogdon (R) with 55 percent of the vote. She will be facing LG Jari Askins (D), a surprise victor in the Dem primary, setting up an all-female gubernatorial matchup.

Fallin is the heavy favorite in the general election, where she will continue her bid to go from representing the state's 5th CD to becoming its first woman gov.

She secured the support of some high profile GOPers during the primary, including from ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R). Immediately following her win tonight, Palin congratulated Fallin on her Twitter feed. "Congratulations Mary Fallin!" Palin tweeted. "Well-deserved gubernatorial primary victory today, now on to the general. (We can see November from our house!)"

Among the seven members who are serving or have served in the House during the 111th Congress and opted to launch a GOV bid, Fallin is the first to secure her party's nomination this cycle. Ex-Rep. Nathan Deal (R) is currently in a runoff in GA, while Rep. Gresham Barrett (R-SC) lost a runoff in the SC GOV GOP primary and Rep. Artur Davis (D-AL) lost in the Dem primary in AL. Ex-Rep. Neil Abercrombie (D), Rep. Pete Hoekstra (R-MI) and Rep. Zach Wamp (R-TN) are all currently in GOV primaries in their respective home states.

Over on the Dem side, in an upset, LG Jari Askins (D) defeated AG Drew Edmondson (D) by the slimmest of margins, leading him by just over 1.5K votes with 99% of the precincts in. Edmondson led by double digits in the polls heading into the primary, and was the more prolific fundraiser in the race. Askins had loaned her campaign a sizable amount of money in an effort to remain competitive and in the closing days of the race, she landed the endorsement of ex-Univ. of OK/Dallas Cowboys head coach Barry Switzer, who many credit for helping Gov. Brad Henry (D) win his race in '02.

The general election now pits two women against each other, in a race that Fallin enters as the favorite. For her own part, Askins has not shied away from issues affecting women, releasing a TV ad during the primary promising to "make certain" OK women are paid as fairly as men.

Meanwhile, in a preview of how some GOPers might frame the outcome of the Dem race, the RGA seized on the opportunity to portray OK Dems as divided. "The only thing that is clear about the Democratic primary for governor of Oklahoma is that Democrats are deeply divided," said RGA spokesperson Tim Murtaugh, shortly before Askins was declared the victor. "Oklahoma voters tonight chose someone who has proven that she can win statewide," said DGA chair Jack Markell, of Askins.

Full results, along with Senate and House results, after the jump.

Since we last published our rankings, two important clues have emerged to give us some help in navigating the general election landscape.

One is the second-quarter FEC reports, which in some cases helped Democrats' cause. That's because the party's incumbents have built up solid war chests in anticipation of extremely tough contests in the fall. Conversely, many of their Republican challengers start the general election in relatively weak positions, mostly because primaries have exhausted their stockpiles.

But that should not give Democrats false comfort, for the Republican wave still appears to be building. Another important clue for November -- revealed late last week -- comes directly from the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, and it does not inspire confidence. The committee reserved $28 million worth of general election air time for 39 vulnerable incumbents. For the most part there were few surprises on the list, as most were already expected to face tough races. Still, the list served as confirmation of which incumbents do indeed face the toughest races.

So with the help of these factors, here is our expanded list of 40 races, which again feature a heavy majority of Democratic-held seats.

1. TN 06 Open Seat (D) (Last Ranking: 1) -- We didn't see anything in the 2ndQ FEC reports to convince us that any of the Democratic candidates will be able to put it together in time to defeat the eventual Republican nominee. This one should be in the bag for the Republicans.

2. LA 03 Open Seat (D) (2) -- Former state House Speaker Hunt Downer (R) entered the race with a big $279K 2ndQ, and, along with his name ID, that should enable him to win the primary. Those factors, and the considerable Republican lean of the district, give him the big edge in the fall.

3. NY 29 Special Election (D) (6)-- Former Corning Mayor Tom Reed (R) is no fundraising dynamo, but ex-CIA analyst Matt Zeller (D) certainly makes him look like one. Zeller ended his first fundraising quarter in the race with just $86,000 in the bank. That's not going to be enough to get the job done in the fall.

4. LA 02 Anh (Joseph) Cao (R) (3) -- Cao recently released an early June poll showing him leading his likely Democratic challenger, state Rep. Cedric Richmond, 51 percent to 26 percent. That advantage will almost certainly narrow as we head to the general in this overwhelmingly Dem district, but it's a sign that Cao certainly has some life left.

5. DE AL Open Seat (R) (4) -- Millionaire businesswoman Michele Rollins (R) raised nearly $600K in her first fundraising quarter, an impressive take considering all but $5K was raised by contributors. Ex-LG John Carney (D) still has the advantage here, but Rollins (and GOP candidate Glen Urquhart) are certainly narrowing what at first appeared to be an impossible fundraising gap.

6. AR 02 Open Seat (D) (5) -- Republicans privately say this race is nearly a "done deal," and with polls and fundraising reports showing big advantages for ex-U.S. Attorney Tim Griffin (R), those strategists may be on to something.

7. OH 15 Mary Jo Kilroy (D) (17) -- '08 nominee Steve Stivers (R) is a fundraising machine; he doubled up Kilroy in fundraising in the last three months, and now has outbanked her. Add that to the fact that Kilroy has a pretty liberal voting record for this swing CD, and she's in a world of hurt.

8. OH 01 Steve Driehaus (D) (10) -- While ex-Rep. Steve Chabot (R) didn't have spectacular numbers like Stivers, he still did manage to put a very solid 2ndQ haul together and outraise and outbank Driehaus. It's hard to see how Driehaus recovers the lost mo.

9. KS 03 Open Seat (D) (8) -- Stephene Moore's bid to hold her retiring husband's seat for Dems has started out strong, as she raised $350K in the 2ndQ. State Rep. Kevin Yoder, the GOP front-runner, also had a good quarter, but he must first deal with a pesky primary where several candidates are accusing him of being too moderate on social issues.

10. VA 05 Tom Perriello (D) (14) -- One poll does not a race make, but SurveyUSA released a shocker earlier this week when it showed Perriello trailing state Sen. Robert Hurt (R) by 23 points. To add insult to injury, the poll was taken after Perriello aired nearly two weeks' worth of TV ads (Hurt, meanwhile, has not yet aired any). Will Perriello's camp release its own survey to counter these awful numbers?

For the rest of our top 40 rankings, click here.

Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) chided his GOP opponents for turning negative on him during an interview with Hotline OnCall last week while defending his record as the head of Pilot Corp.

Most indicators entering the 8/5 primary suggests Haslam is the frontrunner, including polling, fundraising, and the fact that he's the subject of most attacks launched from Rep. Zach Wamp (R-03) and LG Ron Ramsey (R), though just he launched a counterattack against Wamp last week. Haslam followed up with a radio ad this week criticizing Wamp and said he found the attacks against him to be sad given that he's helped Wamp and Ramsey in their previous campaigns.

"I've known them both and have financially supported them in the past," said Haslam, adding, "When you're running against them, everything changes. ... My hope is that we can get past that."

Haslam donated $1K to Wamp's first re-election bid in '96.

Indeed, Haslam has written more than 200 checks totaling over $350K to nat'l GOPers, special interest groups and GOP committees over the years, far more than either Wamp or Ramsey. Haslam is also considerably wealthier, though he has refused to release a detailed income statement. Wamp has attacked him as a billionaire, something which Haslam's camp has previously denied, and said during a separate interview with Hotline OnCall that Haslam is making at least $50M a year.

"The mayor and I have been friends for a long time," Wamp said during an earlier interview with Hotline OnCall. However, he said Haslam's team is "spending millions of dollars of their own money now" on ads that "do not match the man or his record."

When asked about Ramsey's prior relationship with Haslam, spokesperson Rachel Taylor didn't address the question directly, instead writing, "Haslam has supported Al Gore in a 1988 presidential run and one of the most liberal members of the Tennessee Congressional Delegation, Jim Cooper. Cooper voted with Speaker Pelosi 90% of the time in 2008 (most recent year posted) and voted over 80 percent liberal since the the time Mayor Haslam gave Rep. Cooper money. Tennesseans have a right to question these endorsements. Haslam is not an acceptable choice for most conservative Tennesseans."

Ramsey and Wamp have also targeted Haslam heavily for his stewardship of the gas giant Pilot Corp., particularly with regards to price gouging after a major hurricane.

"Ultimately, the leadership of the company is responsible," said Haslam. He chalked up the price gouging to "technical errors" which has since been settled -- by the courts -- and mentioned that Wamp has previously praised Pilot. "The reality is this: Zach knows better," said Haslam. "He's on record saying our company is a great Tennessee company."

Wamp responded by mentioning Haslam "continued to be a partner and receive his annual pay from Pilot Oil the entire time." Wamp: "His campaign propaganda calls him a 'remarkable businessman. ... So you can't have it both ways."

Haslam would not address questions about businessman Mike McWherter (D) or the general election, saying, "I'll wait (to) cross that bridge. We're 100% focused on winning the primary."

Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) today became the latest member of the Senate to declare her intention to vote for Solicitor Gen. Elena Kagan, as that body inches toward a vote next week. We'll continue to keep close tabs on the vote count each weekday until then.

A note on methodology: We assume a vast majority -- if not all -- of the Dem caucus will vote to confirm Kagan. But we're going to be sticklers for a firm 'yes' -- or the very strong hint of a 'yes' in an interview. GOP 'yes' votes are in italics.

YES VOTES: 26
Sens. Michael Bennet (report), Roland Burris (statement), Ben Cardin (statement), Susan Collins (statement), Chris Dodd (statement), Byron Dorgan (statement), Dick Durbin (floor speech, 7/12), Russ Feingold (statement), Dianne Feinstein (statement, Al Franken (interview), Lindsey Graham (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), Tim Johnson (report), Ted Kaufman (statement), Amy Klobuchar (interview), Patrick Leahy (statement), Dick Lugar (statement), Claire McCaskill (report), Jeff Merkley (report), Patty Murray (statement), Jack Reed (statement), Chuck Schumer (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), Jeanne Shaheen (report), Arlen Specter (op-ed), Debbie Stabenow (statement), Mark Udall (statement), Sheldon Whitehouse (interview).

NO VOTES: 23
Sens. Lamar Alexander (statement), Bob Bennett (statement), Jim Bunning (statement), Richard Burr (statement), Saxby Chambliss (statement), Tom Coburn (op-ed), John Cornyn (statement), Jim DeMint (op-ed), John Ensign (statement), Chuck Grassley (statement), Orrin Hatch (statement), Jim Inhofe (statement), Johnny Isakson (statement), Mike Johanns (statement), Jon Kyl (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), John McCain (op-ed), Mitch McConnell (statement), Lisa Murkowski (statement), Jeff Sessions (op-ed), Richard Shelby (statement), John Thune (statement), David Vitter (statement), Roger Wicker (report).

A second House Democrat, freshman Rep. Walt Minnick (D-ID) is now calling for scandal-plagued Rep. Charles Rangel's resignation from the House, a move that's likely to lead a number of his vulnerable House colleagues to follow suit.

Minnick joins Rep. Betty Sutton (D-OH) as the two House Democrats demanding that the ethically-scandalized Rangel step down from Congress - so far. His decision shouldn't come as a surprise, given that he represents one of the most conservative seats held by a Democrat in the House, and has been distancing himself from his party's leadership since elected in 2008.

But other Democrats facing tough re-elections, especially those recently-elected members who ran for Congress on a platform of combating a culture of corruption, will now be under pressure to actively distance themselves from Rangel's baggage.

Republicans are hoping to make California a central battleground in the competition for control of the Senate, with the National Republican Senatorial Committee reserving $1.75 million in television advertisements against Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA).

The financial commitment, first reported by the Associated Press and confirmed to Hotline OnCall, is not a significant amount in a state where it costs tens of millions of dollars to run a full-fledged campaign. According to several GOP sources, it's part of a coordinated expenditure between the NRSC and the Fiorina campaign which allows the two entities to work together to spend a limited amount of cash. But it's a signal that Republicans are prepared to commit even more significant resources into the Golden State, assuming Fiorina can remain competitive with Boxer. National Republicans haven't spent money on behalf of a California Senate candidate in over a decade.

Public polling has shown California is shaping up to be a tight race, with Boxer and former HP executive Carly Fiorina running neck-and-neck. A Field poll conducted between June 22 and July 5 showed Boxer with a 47 to 44 percent lead over Fiorina, within the survey's 3.2 percent margin of error.

In the wild, crazy and crowded campaign that is the Michigan Republican gubernatorial primary, one of the less-publicized candidates is in good position to make a late move: Oakland Co. Sheriff Mike Bouchard (R)

With $846K left in the bank, Bouchard enters the final stretch with more cash than anyone else on either side, edging out businessman Rick Snyder (R) by more than $34K.

This is significant because Bouchard has not been a major spender on the airwaves to date yet has remained in the hunt for the GOP nod. Bouchard has only launched 3 TV commercials so far and has not been on the receiving end of any negative advertising aside from his image being nicked in Snyder's debut ad with the catchline "Michigan has tried career politicians." That means Bouchard doesn't have the negatives as, say, AG Mike Cox (R), who has been giving and taking hits throughout the campaign.

Rep. Pete Hoekstra's (R) winning strategy seems to be set on running up the score in western MI while staying competitive in the southeast. Polls show Hoekstra in solid shape, either in the lead or second place.

As a non-elected outsider, Snyder had to spend big money throughout the campaign to raise his name recognition throughout the state. He went so far as to launch the first TV ad of the campaign during the Super Bowl.

Snyder's camp openly admits it's courting cross-over Dems and indies to vote in the open GOP primary, and his endorsement by ex-Rep. Joe Schwarz (R) goes to show he is the only of the major four GOPers focused on moderates, allowing the other candidates to divide the conservative vote between themselves.

Bouchard, meanwhile, has been making a play for the conservative activist vote. Bouchard's candidacy has stood out for his endorsements alone as he counts "Joe The Plumber" Sam Wurzelbacher, rocker Ted Nugent and Maricopa Co. (AZ) Sheriff Joe Arpaio among his supporters. He also campaigns on the idea of turning union-heavy MI into a right-to-work state.

Snyder's camp even mentioned that Bouchard has run a solid campaign to date and made a smart decision by hoarding his cash. That money assures Bouchard will be able to compete on-air with the other GOPers during the closing weeks at a level he has not done throughout the campaign. He's taken a risk by running the farthest to the right in the field, territory occupied by Cox prior to the right-to-work announcement.

However, with money now at his side and GOP voters likely starting to tune in, watch for Bouchard to make his run away from also-ran status to become a serious contender.

Voters will head to the polls in OK on Tuesday for primaries in both the GOV and SEN races. While the Dem and GOP GOV primary contests have featured TV ads, debates and high-profile endorsements, the SEN race has been quiet, with Sen. Tom Coburn (R) in complete control without any noteworthy challengers to fear. Here is what you need to know about tomorrow's primaries:

GOV Race:

As the candidates head down the homestretch in the Dem and GOP primaries, the state's AG and a member of Congress head their respective fields. On the GOP side, Rep./ex-LG Mary Fallin (R) is the GOP front-runner in a field of four candidates. Recent polling indicates Fallin leads state Sen. Randy Brogdon (R) by a wide margin and should have no trouble advancing to the general election on Tuesday. A poll conducted July 16-21 by SoonerPoll.com found Fallin leading Brogdon, 56-18%. A Cole Hargraves & Assoc. (R) poll, conducted July 18-20, found Fallin leading Brogdon, 50-22%. Also competing in the GOP primary are rancher/businessman Robert Hubbard (R) and ret. businessman Roger Jackson (R).

Running to the right of Fallin, Brogdon has been hitting the frontrunner over her TARP vote in ads, while Fallin has remained positive in her TV spots.

Fallin has caught the eye of several nat'l GOPers, including ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R), AZ Gov. Jan Brewer (R), MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) and ex-FL Gov. Jeb Bush (R), who are all backing her in the race.

Over on the Dem side, the two candidates are AG Drew Edmondson (D) and LG Jari Askins (D). Edmondson leads this race, as a concurrent SoonerPoll.com survey shows Edmondson beating Askins, 49-33%, and the Cole Hargraves & Assoc. poll indicates a 38-27% lead for the AG. Both candidates have been airing positive, introductory TV spots, including an ad from Edmondson, in which he discusses jobs and energy, and one from Askins in which she stresses ethics reform.

The NRA is backing Edmondson in the Dem primary, while Askins scored a last minute endorsement from ex-Univ. of OK/Dallas Cowboys head coach Barry Switzer, who has been credited for giving Gov. Brad Henry (D) a boost in his '02 bid.

SEN Race:

While Coburn has not attracted any prominent challengers, there are still primaries on the GOP and Dem sides. Coburn should cruise easily over '08 candidate/'96 OK-03 candidate/'00-'06 OK-01 candidate/librarian Evelyn Rogers (R) and singer/song-writer/teacher Lewis Spring (R). The Dem primary features atty Mark Myles (D) and '02/'04/'08 candidate/'06 LG candidate/ret. teacher Jim Rogers (D).

Primary Guidelines:

Polls are open from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. CDT statewide on Tuesday. OK has a closed primary, meaning only registered voters of a party or registered independents can vote for candidates of that party.

For primaries with at least three candidates, a majority of the votes cast is required to win and avoid a runoff. Should no candidate obtain a majority, the top two candidates would advance to a runoff to be held on 8/24.

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL), who once thought he'd be able to coast to the Democratic nomination for Senate in Florida, is up with his first television spot in the race going after his financially well-heeled primary rival, Jeff Greene.

The fact that Meek, still a relative unknown to most Florida voters, is going negative to begin his television ad blitz, demonstrates that Greene's ample spending on television ads is having an impact and that he will need to spend early, valuable cash to get through the primary.

The attack line is a familiar one: Greene, an investor who hedged millions of his money betting that the housing market would collapse, became a billionaire on the backs of thousands of Floridians who lost their homes because of the financial crisis. (I'm surprised he didn't show any footage with Greene hanging out, barefoot, with Lindsay Lohan.)

(Meek isn't the only Florida statewide official to find himself swamped by a political unknown with a personal fortune to spend. The GOP's presumed gubernatorial frontrunner, Bill McCollum, has been outspent by self-funder Rick Scott and now trails him in public polling.)

Meek ended the last quarter with $4.1 million in his campaign account, which may sound like a lot of dough, but goes quickly in a state with so many major media markets, like Florida. And Meek's early status as Florida's de facto Democratic nominee was due less because of his political track record - he ran unopposed in nearly all of his Congressional races - than to minimal interest from other Florida Democrats and his close connections to Democratic powerbrokers, from Bill Clinton to his colleagues in leadership.

His political mettle clearly will now be tested, against the money and personal baggage of Greene. The primary will be held on August 24.

(h/t Naked Politics)

A full Senate vote on the SCOTUS nomination of Solicitor General Elena Kagan is expected next week, according to our colleagues at CongressDaily. But here at Hotline OnCall, we're keeping close tabs on the vote count each weekday until then.

Sen. Susan Collins (R-ME) became the third GOPer to support Kagan on Friday, putting the nominee well on her way to securing the support of a filibuster-proof majority. Earlier today, Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC) announced he would vote against Kagan. Burr, who is seeking re-election this year, voted against Kagan for solicitor general last year.

A note on methodology: We assume a vast majority -- if not all -- of the Dem caucus will vote to confirm Kagan. But we're going to be sticklers for a firm 'yes' -- or the very strong hint of a 'yes' in an interview. GOP 'yes' votes are in italics.

YES VOTES: 25
Sens. Michael Bennet (report), Roland Burris (statement), Ben Cardin (statement), Susan Collins (statement), Chris Dodd (statement), Byron Dorgan (statement), Dick Durbin (floor speech, 7/12), Russ Feingold (statement), Dianne Feinstein (statement, Al Franken (interview), Lindsey Graham (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), Tim Johnson (report), Ted Kaufman (statement), Amy Klobuchar (interview), Patrick Leahy (statement), Dick Lugar (statement), Claire McCaskill (report), Jeff Merkley (report), Jack Reed (statement), Chuck Schumer (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), Jeanne Shaheen (report), Arlen Specter (op-ed), Debbie Stabenow (statement), Mark Udall (statement), Sheldon Whitehouse (interview).

NO VOTES: 23
Sens. Lamar Alexander (statement), Bob Bennett (statement), Jim Bunning (statement), Richard Burr (statement), Saxby Chambliss (statement), Tom Coburn (op-ed), John Cornyn (statement), Jim DeMint (op-ed), John Ensign (statement), Chuck Grassley (statement), Orrin Hatch (statement), Jim Inhofe (statement), Johnny Isakson (statement), Mike Johanns (statement), Jon Kyl (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), John McCain (op-ed), Mitch McConnell (statement), Lisa Murkowski (statement), Jeff Sessions (op-ed), Richard Shelby (statement), John Thune (statement), David Vitter (statement), Roger Wicker (report).

Rep. Roy Blunt (R) has a narrow advantage over Sec/State Robin Carnahan (D) in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Kit Bond (R-MO), according to a Mason-Dixon Polling & Research survey released Saturday.

Blunt leads Carnahan in the poll, 48-42%, with 10% of voters undecided. But in an ominous sign for Carnahan, the poll of 625 voters who regularly cast ballots in state elections also shows that just over a third approve of the job Pres. Obama is doing. In '08, Obama lost the Show Me State by just 0.1%.

Blunt is viewed favorably by 39% of voters, while 23% view him unfavorably. Voters are more mixed on Carnahan: 39% also have a favorable impression of her, but 38% view her unfavorably.

Obama earns approval from 34% of voters, while 57% disapprove of the job he is doing.

The Obama admin.'s legislative accomplishments are even less popular. Just 29% think his actions have helped to improve the U.S. economy, while 41% of voters think his actions have hurt, and 30% think they've had no impact.

Only 31% approve of the new health care law; 61% disapprove. Voters would support the state enacting an AZ-style immigration law by a whopping 69-25% margin.

The only good news for Carnahan is that the legislative body to which Blunt belongs is even more unpopular than Obama and his policies. Just 11% approve of the job Congress is doing, while 78% disapprove.

The poll was conducted July 19-21 for the St. Louis Post-Dispatch and KMOX-TV. The survey has a margin of error of +/- 3.9%.

Even as the debate over immigration and border security in AZ continues to rage, AG Terry Goddard (D) says that his primary focus is on the state's economic condition, which he argues is the number one concern for voters. In a lunch meeting with reporters in DC on Friday, Goddard expressed concern over job losses in AZ and blasted Gov. Jan Brewer (R) for what he called her "failure to balance the budget."

For Goddard, who is behind in the polls by a sizable margin, the remainder of the race will be an arduous challenge. As the federal lawsuit against SB 1070 -- AZ's controversial immigration measure -- continues to attract widespread attention, the AG's desire to shift the discussion to the economy remains a very tall task. "There is no single dramatic moment," conceded Goddard, comparing economic developments to SB 1070. It is an "appeal to the head and not the emotions," he added.

Goddard argued that Brewer has little else to run on besides her signing of SB 1070. Brewer spokesperson Doug Cole rejected the claim and defended Brewer's handling of the budget. "She has cut 2.2 billion dollars out of the base of the Arizona budget," Cole said. He also called Brewer's support of Prop. 100 -- a temporary sales tax increase -- "politically courageous."

For the Brewer campaign, a focus on immigration and border security has yielded dividends. While Goddard said Friday he is "Happy to talk about border security," Brewer has become the state's dominant political figure on the matter. After enjoying a big momentum boost after signing SB 1070 into law and positioning herself in direct opposition to the Obama admin in fighting the federal challenge against the measure, she has been able to seize the high ground on the issue and hasn't looked back.

Goddard, who opposes SB 1070, recently penned a letter to Pres. Obama, in which he was nonetheless critical of the admin's decision to challenge the law and argued that it is the growth of Mexican drug cartels that presents the most immediate threat. "Your Administration's decision to challenge Arizona's law before it even takes effect without any effort to address Arizona's costs or to effectively deal with the cartel threat has created substantial and justifiable anger here," wrote Goddard.

Goddard was also critical of some of Brewer's public comments on border security, including her claim that law enforcement has found beheaded bodies in the desert, calling the statement "Demonstrably untrue."

"There have been media reports that people living in the region have found body parts in the desert," said Cole. "People are dying and have been dying on both sides of the border."

Standing up to the admin in his letter may help Goddard make the case that his approach to border security is credible, but it may not ultimately be enough. In June, Brewer scored a face-to-face meeting with Obama at the WH to discuss border security, illustrating once again that Goddard's moves have consistently been overshadowed by Brewer's.

What we learned in key races around the country this week:

-- You can only get so excited about out-raising your opponent when that opponent is a multimillionaire. Observe Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), flying high last week after revealing she had $11.3M CoH to ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina's (R) $950K CoH. But it doesn't seem so consequential now that Fiorina's campaign has all but said Fiorina would just write a check to make up the difference.

-- Speaking of spending, were we the only ones shocked at Sen. John McCain's (R-AZ) incredible spending pace? He blew through $10M in the last quarter alone, evidence that he took ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth's (R) challenge seriously. But that's left McCain in a precarious position; he's having to cut back on his ad buys now, right before the Aug. 24 primary, and right as Hayworth is launching his own ad blitz.

-- Ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R) has become the punching bag in the race to replace retiring Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH). This week, she won the endorsement of ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R), which should help her with conservative voters. Rep. Paul Hodes (D-NH) doubled down on his bet that going negative on Ayotte in the form of TV ads hitting her on FRM will pay off. Businessman Jim Bender (R) and '96 GOV nominee/atty/ex-NH Bd. of Ed. chair Ovide Lamontagne (R) stepped up their own criticism of the former AG.

We learned a lot this week, so we're breaking it down into 2 posts. Here's what this week's macro trends taught us about where the political landscape stands:

-- With the DCCC's decision to reserve $28M in air time to protect 39 vulnerable incumbents, Dems look to be betting that the battle for the House will be fought in GOP territory, as just 7 of those 39 are CDs with a "D+" Cook PVI rating. But if a GOP wave does crash ashore this fall, history tells us that GOPers will win their share of Dem-leaning seats as well.

-- Opposite views of messages the massive ad buy sends: For the optimistic Dem, it's about flexing muscle, dropping huge loads of cash into key districts where they think they can save incumbents, all while saving a few bucks by reserving time early. For positive-thinking GOPers, it's the ultimate sign that Dems are panicking, and that the end of the short-lived majority is near.

-- Outside of Gallup's weekly tracking poll, which showed Dems with a 6-point lead on the generic ballot, this was a bad week by the numbers for Dems, both in Congress and the WH. One of the worst data points? When asked by Quinnipiac Univ. who they trusted more on the economy, more voters for the first time said Cong. GOPers (42%) than Pres. Obama (41%).

Each month, DC media outlets bring you the latest fundraising numbers from each party committee. But only on Hotline OnCall can you find the context that makes those numbers matter.

From now on, we'll provide a monthly look at how the committees have done over the previous reporting period, as well as a look at how each has done since Jan. 1, '06. Today, our updated chart, current through June 30 (That is, reflecting reports filed with the FEC on July 20).

An important note: We've named each month after the date on the report, which shows the committee's financial shape at midnight on the first of the month. That is, the RNC's July report, which shows the party with $10.89M in the bank, means they had that amount on hand as of June 28, '10. We've also updated reports filed earlier this year, which were amended after a flap over previously-unreported debt.

Pre-general reports cover Oct. 1 to Oct. 15 in election years. Post-general reports cover the period from Oct. 16 to Nov. 24. Year-end reports in election years cover Nov. 25 to Dec. 31; in non-federal election years, they cover Dec. 1 to Dec. 31. So a year-end report shows a committee's financial state on Jan. 1 of the following year.

REPUBLICAN NATIONAL COMMITTEE

Month      Raised       Spent    Cash On Hand    Debt
2010
July      $5,907,897   $7593539    $10,895,695  $2,027,970
June      $6,456,893   $6,368,433  $12,581,337  $3,818,391
May       $6,864,684   $5,738,571  $12,492,876  $3,322,813
April     $11,638,193  $9,734,193  $11,366,763  $0
March     $7,688,126   $7,708,240  $9,462,763   $0
Feb.      $10,530,290  $9,469,361  $9,482,877   $0
Year-end  $6,844,860   $7,172,004  $8,421,947   $0

After the jump, data from 2009, 2008 and 2007.

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) spent more than $10M on his primary battle against ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R), according to his 2ndQ campaign finance report, leaving him with a much narrower financial advantage in the GOP primary than he once enjoyed.

McCain has spent a total of $15.7M this cycle, according to FEC reports, and he has just $1.78M left to spend before the Aug. 24 GOP primary. Hayworth had $922K in the bank, his reports showed.

"Senator McCain takes every campaign seriously, and this race is no exception. Senator McCain is proud of the statewide support he's received from Arizonans, both financial and otherwise," said McCain spokesperson Brian Rogers.

McCain has been blanketing the AZ airwaves with TV ads, but he has apparently made a significant cutback in the size of his buy lately. According to Hayworth media consultant Dan Bayens, McCain has reduced his ad spending from $150K-$250K a week -- where he had been since March -- down to $40K a week currently.

Hayworth, who trails McCain by a wide margin, went up with a TV ad of his own today. The spot will run statewide.

Each month, DC media outlets bring you the latest fundraising numbers from each party committee. But only on Hotline OnCall can you find the context that makes those numbers matter.

From now on, we'll provide a monthly look at how the committees have done over the previous reporting period, as well as a look at how each has done since Jan. 1, '06. Today, our updated chart, current through June 30 (That is, reflecting reports filed with the FEC on July 20).

An important note: We've named each month after the date on the report, which shows the committee's financial shape at midnight on the first of the month. That is, the DNC's July report, which shows the party with $10.97M in the bank, means they had that amount on hand as of June 30, '10.

Pre-general reports cover Oct. 1 to Oct. 15 in election years. Post-general reports cover the period from Oct. 16 to Nov. 24. Year-end reports in election years cover Nov. 25 to Dec. 31; in non-federal election years, they cover Dec. 1 to Dec. 31. So a year-end report shows a committee's financial state on Jan. 1 of the following year.

DEMOCRATIC NATIONAL COMMITTEE

Month       Raised      Spent     Cash On Hand    Debt
2010
July      $6,464,411   $9,980,695  $10,974,764  $3,878,168         
June      $6,602,893   $7,240,205  $14,491,049  $3,029,912
May       $10,432,484  $10,052,583 $15,128,360  $2,728,492 
April     $13,728,260  $9,718,677  $14,748,459  $3,409,413
March     $7,422,412   $6,887,933  $10,738,876  $3,715,977
Feb.      $9,189,881   $7,629,472  $10,204,456  $4,721,634
Year-end  $4,536,164   $9,058,003  $8,644,048   $4,699,609

After the jump, 2009, 2008 and 2007.

KY AG Jack Conway (D) and ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) are locked in a tight battle in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Jim Bunning (R), according to a new poll released Thursday.

Paul leads Conway 41-38% in the poll, which was conducted for the KY cable news channel cn|2. Among registered Dems, Conway leads, 56-19%. But Paul runs up the score (72-11%) among registered GOPers (Dems outnumber GOPers in the poll, 54-38%. As of '08, voter registration in KY was 57% Dem, 36% GOP.)

Paul has a big advantage among men, capturing them 47-33%. Conway, meanwhile, narrows the gap with an edge among women, 43-36%.

Though Paul leads the poll, voters have a more positive (and less negative) impression of Conway. Conway is viewed favorably by 50% of voters, while just 19% have an unfavorable opinion of him. Paul's fav/unfav (48%/33%) is more mixed.

More than half of voters rank the economy and job creation as the number-one issue in the campaign, though health care and the budget deficit also score well, particularly among GOPers. Just 6% of voters rank the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq as their most important issue.

Conway won't be asking for help from Pres. Obama. Just 41% approve of the job Obama is doing as president; his approval rating among Dems is only 58%. Obama's approval rating is even lower than Bunning's, which stands at 44%; 39% disapprove of the job he doing).

Just more than half of voters approve of the job Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell is doing. McConnell's approval rating is equal to his vote share in his '08 re-election bid -- 53%.

The poll was conducted July 19-21 by Braun Research in Princeton, NJ. Braun surveyed 803 likely voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.5%.

Meet the Press hosts Treas. Sec. Tim Geithner, Washington Post's E.J. Dionne, New York Times' David Brooks, Ex-WH Comm. Dir. Anita Dunn, National Urban League's Marc Morial and CNBC's Rick Santelli.

Face the Nation hosts Conservative race historian/Bush appointee Abigail Thernstrom, Georgetown Univ. prof. Michael Eric Dyson, Princeton Univ. prof. Cornel West, Wall Street Journal's John Fund and Washington Post's Michael Gerson.

This Week hosts Treas. Sec. Tim Geithner, NJ Gov. Chris Christie (R), Weekly Standard's Stephen Hayes, Dem strategist Donna Brazile and ABC's Cokie Roberts and Sam Donaldson.

Fox News Sunday hosts ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich, Ex-DNC Chair Howard Dean and Rev. Jesse Jackson.

State of the Union hosts UC Berkeley Dean Christopher Edley, The New Republic's John McWhorter and U.S. News & World Report's Mort Zuckerman.

The rest of the weekend shows after the jump.

The Senate Judiciary Committee on Tuesday put a positive stamp on Solicitor General Elena Kagan's nomination to the Supreme Court, clearing the way for a floor debate expected to begin soon.

The committee approved Kagan's nomination by a 13-6 margin, with most GOPers voting against. Only Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) crossed the aisle to side with Dems. Reports indicate that the offices of retiring Sens. George Voinovich (R-OH) and Judd Gregg (R-NH) will not say how their bosses are voting.

A note on methodology: We assume a vast majority -- if not all -- of the Dem caucus will vote to confirm Kagan. But we're going to be sticklers for a firm 'yes' -- or the very strong hint of a 'yes' in an interview. GOP 'yes' votes are in italics.

YES VOTES: 22
Sens. Michael Bennet (report), Roland Burris (statement), Ben Cardin (statement), Byron Dorgan (statement), Dick Durbin (floor speech, 7/12), Russ Feingold (statement), Dianne Feinstein (statement, Al Franken (interview), Lindsey Graham (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), Tim Johnson (report), Ted Kaufman (statement), Amy Klobuchar (interview), Patrick Leahy (statement), Richard Lugar (statement), Claire McCaskill (report), Jeff Merkley (report), Chuck Schumer (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), Jeanne Shaheen (report), Arlen Specter (op-ed), Debbie Stabenow (statement), Mark Udall (statement), Sheldon Whitehouse (interview).

NO VOTES: 22
Sens. Lamar Alexander (statement), Bob Bennett (statement), Jim Bunning (statement), Saxby Chambliss (statement), Tom Coburn (op-ed), John Cornyn (statement), Jim DeMint (op-ed), John Ensign (statement), Chuck Grassley (statement), Orrin Hatch (statement), Jim Inhofe (statement), Johnny Isakson (statement), Mike Johanns (statement), Jon Kyl (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), John McCain (op-ed), Mitch McConnell (statement), Lisa Murkowski (statement), Jeff Sessions (op-ed), Richard Shelby (statement), John Thune (statement), David Vitter (statement), Roger Wicker (report).

Rep. Zach Wamp (R-03) suggested TN and other states may have to consider seceding from the union if the federal government does not change its ways regarding mandates.

"I hope that the American people will go to the ballot box in 2010 and 2012 so that states are not forced to consider separation from this government," said Wamp during an interview with Hotline OnCall.

He lauded Gov. Rick Perry (R-TX), who first floated the idea of secession in April '09, for leading the push-back against health care reform, adding that he hopes the American people "will send people to Washington that will, in 2010 and 2012, strictly adhere" to the constitution's defined role for the federal government.

"Patriots like Rick Perry have talked about these issues because the federal government is putting us in an untenable position at the state level," said Wamp, who is competing with Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) and LG Ron Ramsey (R) for the GOP nod in the race to replace TN Gov. Phil Bredesen (D).

Ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) is launching the first serious assault on Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), attacking McCain for working too closely with Dems on comprehensive immigration reform legislation.

The ad features shots of McCain with the late Sen. Ted Kennedy and Pres. Obama, as well as clips in which McCain touts his work with both the liberal lion and the president.

Hayworth has been vastly outspent by McCain, who began attacking the former congressman even before Hayworth joined the race. But now Hayworth is fighting back, using his campaign treasury to purchase 1,200 points of statewide broadcast TV in the Phoenix, Tucson and Yuma markets.

Hayworth will remain on broadcast TV throughout the rest of the campaign, said Dan Bayens, Hayworth's media strategist. The primary is Aug. 24. And immigration, Hayworth's pet issue, is likely to play a big role in his attacks on the incumbent.

In an unexpected step, Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid filed cloture late Thursday night on a motion to proceed to a closely watched campaign finance bill.

Reid's move forces a 2:45pm Tuesday vote on whether to move to the DISCLOSE Act, a bill imposing new campaign finance regulations in response to the Supreme Court's controversial Citizens United v. FEC ruling, which threw out limits on spending by corporations and unions to influence elections.

The bill, a version of which has passed the House after Dems excluded the powerful National Rifle Association from new regulations, is a priority for Dems in both chambers. The bill, however, appears to face unified opposition from GOPers in the Senate and potential opposition from a few Dems -- largely thanks to the NRA carve-out.

That means the cloture vote, which requires backing from 60 senators to succeed, is likely to fall short. Dems could then point to the vote as another instance of Senate GOPers obstructing Dem plans. Reid's cloture filing came at around 11pm Thursday night after a series of votes and procedural disputes snarled the Senate for hours.

Dems have that rarest of things this year -- a poll to crow about in a Senate race, against a GOP incumbent in a (typically) red state. In fact, they have 2 of them at the same time.

A new poll by Lake Research Partners (D) shows Sec/State Elaine Marshall (D) barely leading her opponent, Sen. Richard Burr (R-NC). The poll, conducted July 15-19 of 600 registered voters in the Tarheel State with a 4-point error margin, shows Marshall at 37% to Burr's 35%. 23% of those surveyed remain undecided.

Other figures in the poll confirm what GOP strategists have said for months -- they know Burr's approval ratings are lower than they'd like. His fav/unfav split in the partisan poll is 34% to 43%.

And to Dems looking anywhere they can for some good electoral news, that's music. "In sum, Sen. Burr is in deep trouble. Only a quarter of voters are willing to defend him while the plurality dislikes him and the majority believes he is doing a just fair or poor job," pollsters Celinda Lake and Joshua Ulibarri write in a memo.

Good Friday morning. Your Hotline OnCall editor is taking a quick vacation, but check back frequently for the latest news and notes from the rest of The Hotline staff.

Voters head to the polls in a little over 3 months, and when they do, they won't be thinking of Shirley Sherrod. Instead, here are the folks who proved this week, once again, that they'll be bigger factors in Nov.:

REP. CHARLIE RANGEL: Rangel is under investigation for having broken Congressional rules, and an ethics panel said yesterday they will begin preparations for a trial, likely to start in Sept. GOPers are thrilled to link vulnerable Dems to Rangel through his campaign contributions (Look for about 255 press releases questioning all that "tainted" money).

Those press releases won't make much of a dent. What will is the sense among voters that Congress is corrupt. Given that only a handful of Americans approve of the job Congress is doing and have confidence in the institution, the mere hint of scandal is enough to turn a small breaker into a tidal wave. It's hard to find a wave election that isn't accompanied by some sort of scandal, and absent an Eric Massa, Rangel's ethics woes will play the part.

And let's dispel one common political axiom right now: Gone are the days of the Oct. surprise. On Sept. 29, '06, then-Rep. Mark Foley (R-FL) resigned amidst a page scandal. On Sept. 29, '08, the Dow Jones Industrial Average dropped 777 points, cementing Pres. Obama's victory. This year, Sept. 29 happens to fall on a Wednesday, during a legislative week. We've been saying it for years -- on Sept. 29, get a helmet.

SPEAKER NANCY PELOSI: She'll play a huge role in Nov., but not the one GOPers hope for. Instead, Pelosi is going to be a more positive factor, in the behind-the-scenes way she's become used to. Pelosi has raised and donated millions to Dem candidates this year, through her PAC, her campaign committee and the DCCC.

Ex-Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) is considering a bid to run the RNC, according to a source with knowledge of his early conversations he has held with allies, but members of the committee say Coleman will face an uphill battle if he decides to run.

Coleman, the former one-term senator who lost a close fight for re-election in '08, is a viable candidate, according to sources on the RNC. But he would face many of the same challenges current chairman Michael Steele overcame during his own race -- namely opposition from conservatives on the 168-member panel and concern that he is not a member of the club.

Jonathan Martin first reported Coleman's interest in an RNC bid, though speculation has mounted for months that the former senator is interested in a run.

Coleman was first elected mayor of St. Paul as a Dem, and he chaired Bill Clinton's '96 re-election bid in MN before becoming a GOPer later that year in order to run for governor. Though he hewed a largely conservative line during his tenure in the Senate, Coleman will have to answer for his electoral history.

Amid widespread questioning of ex-NV state Rep. Sharron Angle's (R) campaign against Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid, NRSC Chair John Cornyn today conceded Angle has stumbled in the face of effective attacks by the Reid campaign and needs to improve her organization.

"Unfortunately the negative campaigning sometimes does work," Cornyn said. "It's driven up her negatives. It's made the race closer."

"We continue to work with them, but it's a work in progress," Cornyn said.

Asked if Angle has done enough to set up a campaign capable of a battle with Reid, Cornyn said he and other NRSC official have had frequent conference calls with Angle and her staff, but said improvement is still needed.

"We've been working with her campaign," Cornyn said. "We're still working it ....While running for election is not rocket science, it does require knowledgeable people. It does require some discipline and that's always a struggle for any first time candidate. While she's not a first time candidate, I think when you're running against the incumbent Majority Leader, this is the, it's the Super Bowl and they're gonna come at you with everything they've got and it would be a challenge for anybody to withstand the negative attacks."

Cornyn noted Reid's success raising Angle's negatives "hasn't made people like Harry Reid any more or approve of his policies. Noting the state's unemployment rate remains the country's highest, Cornyn said Reid argued the race should turn on voter's assessment of the economy.

"In the end, no matter how interesting the personalities are, the question the voters should be, do you like the way things are going in the country right now and in Nevada? And if you do probably ought to vote for Harry Reid. But if you don't then I think Sharron Angle offers the alternative."

Turning to CT SEN, Cornyn also said he was surprised by ex-Rep. Rob Simmons' (R) decision to re-enter the race for the retiring Sen. Chris Dodd's (D) seat, reigniting an intra party fight with Linda McMahon as Republicans look to beat AG Richard Blumenthal (D).

"I don't know a whole lot," Cornyn said. "I was a little surprised. I am not really sure what it means, but obviously we'll support the Republican nominee," he said.

Cornyn said he has not talked to Simmons and did not think Simmons had tried to contact the NRSC.

As Senate Dems push to bring an energy bill to the floor before they leave Washington for the Aug. recess, the 2 parties remain strongly divided on the electoral merits the legislation, according to this week's National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

60% of the 100 Dem Insiders who participated in the poll this week said it was in the party's interest to pass energy legislation this year. But a hefty 37% disagreed, sometimes stridently. Said one Dem Insider, "D.C. owns my health care and my bank account. Leave my light bulbs alone."

Added another Dem opponent: "No, no, a thousand times no. If you think the average voter hates 'Obamacare,' wait until he tries to understand the implications of cap-and-trade."

Even some Dem Insiders who like the idea of putting up some more points on the scoreboard were skeptical that an energy bill will become law anytime soon. "More accomplishments are good, but zero chance it happens," said one.

As they look towards the midterm elections, Dem operatives believe that Pres. Obama will be an asset to their party while their GOP counterparts think he will be a liability, according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

Of the 100 Dem Insiders who responded to the poll this week, 23% said he would be a major asset and 45% said he would be a minor asset.

There were some Democratic skeptics: 22% he'd be a minor liability and 5% actually predicted he'd be a major liability (the rest said it would depend on the state or district). But some of the Obama fans also gave a conditional response: As one Dem Insider who said Obama would major asset put it, "But only if he begins making the case of what has been accomplished, why it was necessary and how it will benefit ordinary Americans. Otherwise he becomes a real liability."

Dem Insiders offered different reasons why Obama would be a help to the party in the midterms but several focused on his capacity for fundraising. "Whatever the policy challenges, there is nothing like an incumbent president to raise money," said one Dem Insider who saw Obama as an asset.

While GOPers don't always have an immediate answer to the question of who leads their party, Dems would like to suggest ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin.

Palin has proven her effectiveness in GOP primaries. Candidates Palin endorsed in key primaries in NM, SC and GA, among others, capitalized on her support and built momentum. She's also raised thousands for GOP candidates, giving them instant credibility with conservative donors with little more than a tweet or a note on her Facebook page.

But outside the GOP electorate, the '08 VP nominee is seen in a largely unfavorable light. In the latest Quinnipiac Univ. survey, 35% say they have a favorable opinion of Palin, while 49% see her unfavorably. A Gallup survey earlier this week gave her a 44% favorable to 47% unfavorable rating. Now, Palin is increasingly playing a role in Dem attacks on GOP candidates.

"There's some very real connection between Sarah Palin and some people [GOPers] are putting up for office," said Nathan Daschle, executive director of the DGA. "She clearly speaks for a portion of this country, but that portion of this country exists on the far, far right."

Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (R) is returning to NH, where he will host several fundraisers next month alongside Granite State leaders who could serve as the foundation for his eventual WH'12 bid.

Romney will be the special guest at a fundraiser for the NH GOP Aug. 12 in Tuftonboro, NH. The host committee includes Marriott International CEO J.W. Marriott, Jr and state Sen. Jeb Bradley (R), the former congressman.

Romney will also attend an Aug. 5 fundraiser for the NH GOP House Victory PAC, which helps elect GOP candidates to the NH legislature. This cycle, Romney has already donated $30K to the NH GOP and $7,500 to local and special election NH candidates. This week, he gave $1K to Chris Sununu (R), who is running for Executive Council.

MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) has made his presence felt in NH as well. He's opened a state-specific PAC, and he returned to the state 2 weeks ago for a state GOP fundraiser.

It's a bad month to be a front-running candidate for a CO GOP nomination. Candidates who lead in polls in both the Senate and governor's races have slipped up of late, raising serious questions about their ability to compete in Nov. -- or whether they can win the Aug. 10 primary.

Earlier this month, the Denver Post pointed out identical passages in an essay written by ex-Rep. Scott McInnis (R) and a paper penned by a CO Supreme Court justice years earlier. McInnis acknowledged the plagiarism and has taken responsibility.

In the intervening days, McInnis has returned thousands of dollars he was paid to write the essay, on the history of water rights in CO. Several staffers have left his campaign, and GOP leaders are openly contemplating ways to get McInnis out of the race.

But he's not the only GOPer who's faced a self-inflicted wound -- one that may prove fatal. A new video went viral late Wednesday that showed Weld Co. DA Ken Buck (R) taking a shot at his main rival, ex-LG Jane Norton (R), based on her gender.

Dems are as concerned about well-established members of Congress as they are about freshmen swept into office over the last 2 wave elections, their new ad buy shows.

The initial wave of ad purchases, a $7.7M buy aimed at protecting 17 Dem incumbents, shows Dems believe the national battleground will extend from upstate NY to the Gulf Coast and the Mountain West. And along with freshmen members of Congress, the DCCC has also reserved ad time in districts held by Dem incumbents for decades.

Any national wave is characterized by the range of lawmakers who lose their races. In '94 and '06, experience in Congress didn't make much of a difference.

GOPers were able to take out House Speaker Tom Foley (D-WA), House Judiciary Committee chair Jack Brooks (D-TX), Ways and Means chair Dan Rostenkowski and other long-standing members in '94. That year, they also beat out 15 first-term members. When Dems took back the House, they beat House Resources Committee chair Richard Pombo (R-CA), and Reps. Nancy Johnson (R-CT), Clay Shaw (R-FL) and Jim Leach (R-IA), all of whom had held their seats for more than 20 years.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) is taking a challenge from conservative attorney Joe Miller (R) seriously, and it's paying dividends, as a new poll shows she leads Miller by a wide margin.

Murkowski has a 62%-30% advantage, according to the Ivan Moore Research survey. Murkowski is almost universally known among GOP primary voters, while fewer than half have an impression of Miller.

Miller has support from ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and the Tea Party Express, which has pledged to focus entirely on the race in the run-up to the Aug. 28 primary. Still, Murkowski has the money to swamp Miller; Murkowski ended the second quarter with almost $2.4M in the bank, while Miller had just $125K on hand.

The Tea Party Express has said it will spend the money to make Miller competitive, but so far those ads have been restricted to radio. Murkowski is running radio ads of her own.

The DCCC has reserved $7.7M in air time in the first wave of massive buys, locking in low rates now in an effort to save their House majority. And, the ad buys show, the party is as worried about Dems who have been in office for years as they are about freshmen swept into office in '06 and '08.

The committee's independent expenditure arm is tipping the party's hand by showing off districts in which they believe the incumbent is vulnerable. The AP's Phil Elliott first reported the ad buys last night.

The IE department is where the DCCC has a huge advantage over its GOP rival. Though the NRCC outraised the DCCC last quarter, Dems still have a 2-1 cash on hand advantage. The party is reserving ad time in key states and districts, including races featuring long-entrenched incumbents.

Seats where Dems have already reserved airtime include:

CO 04: Dems are setting aside $744K to defend Rep. Betsy Markey (D), who faces a stiff challenge from state Sen. Cory Gardner (R). That represents 2K total points in the Denver media market over the race's final 2 weeks.

The Senate Judiciary Committee on Tuesday put a positive stamp on Solicitor General Elena Kagan's nomination to the Supreme Court, clearing the way for a floor debate expected to begin soon.

The committee approved Kagan's nomination by a 13-6 margin, with most GOPers voting against. Only Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) crossed the aisle to side with Dems. Reports indicate that the offices of retiring Sens. George Voinovich (R-OH) and Judd Gregg (R-NH) will not say how their bosses are voting.

A note on methodology: We assume a vast majority -- if not all -- of the Dem caucus will vote to confirm Kagan. But we're going to be sticklers for a firm 'yes' -- or the very strong hint of a 'yes' in an interview.

YES VOTES: 20
Sens. Michael Bennet (report), Roland Burris (statement), Ben Cardin (statement), Byron Dorgan (statement), Dick Durbin (floor speech, 7/12), Russ Feingold (statement), Dianne Feinstein (statement, Al Franken (interview), Lindsey Graham (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), Tim Johnson (report), Ted Kaufman (statement), Amy Klobuchar (interview), Patrick Leahy (statement), Jeff Merkley (report), Chuck Schumer (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), Jeanne Shaheen (report), Arlen Specter (op-ed), Debbie Stabenow (statement), Mark Udall (statement), Sheldon Whitehouse (interview).

NO VOTES: 19
Sens. Bob Bennett (statement), Jim Bunning (statement), Saxby Chambliss (statement), Tom Coburn (op-ed), John Cornyn (statement), Jim DeMint (op-ed), Chuck Grassley (statement), Orrin Hatch (statement), Jim Inhofe (statement), Johnny Isakson (statement), Mike Johanns (statement), Jon Kyl (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), John McCain (op-ed), Mitch McConnell (statement), Lisa Murkowski (statement), Jeff Sessions (op-ed), John Thune (statement), David Vitter (statement), Roger Wicker (report).

In the latest sign of peril for Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR), a Reuters poll released Tuesday shows her trailing Rep. John Boozman (R) 54%-35%, in her uphill bid for a third term.

Only 10% of registered voters were undecided in the poll, which is even more notable because Ipsos Public Affairs, the survey firm that conducted the poll, did not allocate leaners to either candidate.

The poll shows Boozman siphoning off 26% of Dems, while holding 85% of GOPers. Indies break for Boozman two-to-one: 42%-21%.

Asked whether they associated Lincoln or Boozman with a list of attributes, voters favored Lincoln for "Will say anything to win votes," while they chose Boozman for "A strong leader for Arkansas."

Voters even narrowly chose Boozman, 32%-29%, for "Tough on banks," even though the poll was conducted just days after financial regulatory reform passed the Senate. Lincoln, as chair of the Senate Ag. Cmte, played a key role in forcing stricter language on derivatives. American Banker reported that Lincoln was in attendance as Pres. Obama signed the legislation into law today at the Ronald Reagan Building in DC.

Amid a troubled political environment, nearly 2 dozen House Dems commissioned polls over the last 3 months, according to reports filed with the FEC. But those polls weren't made public, leaving some GOPers to believe incumbents are beginning to run scared.

The members who conducted polling are among the GOP's top targets this year. Reps. Mark Schauer (D-MI), Earl Pomeroy (D-ND), Chet Edwards (R-TX), Ike Skelton (D-MO), Rick Boucher (D-VA) and Chris Carney (D-PA) were among those who paid for polling.

The campaigns involved largely refused to discuss their internal polling, citing policies against revealing internal strategy. Megan Jacobs, a spokesperson for Edwards' campaign, pointed to a strategy memo arguing Edwards' campaign is far ahead, but the memo doesn't cite poll numbers.

Spokespeople for Schauer, Pomeroy, Skelton, Boucher and Carney, along with a dozen other members of Congress, did not return calls or emails seeking comment about their surveys.

Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R-WV) won't run for the seat once held by the late Sen. Robert Byrd, she said in a statement released by her office on Wednesday, opting instead to stay in the House.

"With the voters support, I intend to serve my full term in the House of Representatives and not run for any other office until 2012," Capito said in the statement.

Capito's decision robs the GOP of their best possible candidate, even though a deal struck in the state legislature made it possible for her to run both for re-election and in the Senate special election. Capito said the dual candidacy would open the door to a court challenge, which she wants to avoid.

Without Capito, GOPers are likely to turn to one of several wealthy businessmen to step in. John Raese (R), who took 34% of the vote against Byrd in '06, is considering running for the seat again. Bob Adams, who runs the League of American Voters, is also thinking about a bid.

The American Action Network is wading into FL in hopes of undercutting Gov. Charlie Crist (I) in key geographic markets, the group will announce later today.

American Action Network head Rob Collins said the group will purchase 1,500 points in 2 markets, Tampa-St. Petersburg and Panama City, this week. That's a significant purchase; one source with knowledge of ad prices said the group likely dropped about $600K on the buy.

The new ad will accuse Crist of changing positions on the stimulus bill, cap and trade and other issues, showing a tattoo artist crossing out Crist's old positions and etching in new ones.

"You can't trust Charlie Crist to fight for jobs -- unless it's his own job," the narrator intones.

It's AAN's first foray into the Sunshine State, where polls show Crist running ahead of ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) and either of 2 Dems locked in a contentious primary fight.

With RNC members set to meet early next month in Kansas City, an old feud between chairman Michael Steele and key opponents on the national committee is reemerging -- one that could prove a more serious offense, in committee members' eyes, than any gaffe Steele has made so far.

In amended reports filed with the FEC, RNC Treasurer Randy Pullen asserts the committee has millions in unreported debts, publicly calling into question Steele's leadership of the party.

The RNC reported raising just $5.9M in June and spending $7.6M, with $10.9M in the bank. In addition, the committee said it had $2M in debts at the end of the month -- debts RNC spokesperson Doug Heye said have been paid off. That means the national committee had just under $9M, making it relatively cash-poor just before crucial midterm elections.

RNC members have worried about the committee's budget for more than a year, as fundraising got off to a slow start under the new chairman. And Pullen, along with a cadre of senior RNC members who have served on the party's budget committee for years, has openly feuded with Steele over spending authority.

Riding the strength of 2 late endorsements, ex-Sec/State Karen Handel (R) earned the top spot in a runoff election last night, when she will face ex-Rep. Nathan Deal in the race for GA's open GOV seat.

Handel won 33% of the vote with 99% of precincts reporting. Deal finished second with 23%. State Sen. Eric Johnson (R) finished third, with 20%, while Insurance Commis. John Oxendine, once the front-runner, finished fourth with 17%.

In the campaign's closing weeks, Handel won endorsements from ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R), who added Handel to her roster of "Mama Grizzlies," and AZ Gov. Jan Brewer (R), with whom Handel served when both were Sec/States. The runoff will be held Aug. 10.

With Oxendine's campaign neutralized by a barrage of charges from his opponents and the courts, Deal found himself in a three-way race for second place with Johnson, both of whom made illegal immigration their no. 1 issue.

Good Wednesday morning. Wait, now ex-IL Gov. Rod Blagojevich won't testify at his own trial, or call any admin officials to defend him? We had the popcorn all ready to go.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

PRES. OBAMA: The president will sign another major piece of legislation today when a bill to overhaul the nation's financial regulations becomes law. And unlike previous major initiatives the WH has successfully pushed through in the first 18 months in office, this one looks like it's having a positive impact at the polls.

Dems lept to their first statistically significant advantage in a generic ballot test in Gallup's weekly tracking poll the week after fin-reg passed, presumably because voters view the regulatory overhaul so positively. That's a dramatic change from health care legislation, the stimulus and smaller jobs bills, none of which have moved voters in Dems' direction.

Now, the WH needs to keep up their momentum. They figured out how to sell regulatory reform, and in the 3 months before Election Day they can refocus on convincing voters that the admin has taken the right steps on the economy as well. Perhaps the most encouraging sign for Pres. Obama: Voters are still willing to listen to the WH.

REP. MICHELE BACHMANN: The firebrand conservative from MN will chair the first meeting of the Congressional Tea Party Caucus this morning, a meeting that's set to put more pressure on national GOPers to embrace a movement that remains proudly uncontrolled by DC interests. It's another sign that Tea Party candidates will grow their ranks in Congress, and that the infusion within the GOP Conference has already begun.

The RNC has more than $2M in debts as a dispute between chairman Michael Steele and Treasurer Randy Pullen spills into reports filed with the FEC, once again bringing to light fundamental disagreements between key GOP officials.

Reports filed with the FEC late Tuesday show the RNC owes hundreds of thousands of dollars to direct mail vendors, internet strategists and telemarketing firms contracted over the last year. But party officials dispute the reports, signed by Pullen, and assert the outstanding bills were paid in full.

Pullen asserted the debts go much higher than is reported to the FEC. In a memo to RNC budget committee members, first reported by the Washington Times, Pullen said the committee owes $3.3M from April and anoter $3.8M from May. Pullen filed amended reports to the FEC late Tuesday reflecting those new debts.

RNC members have been nervous about debts kept off the books by committee staffers, Hotline OnCall first reported earlier this month. But RNC aides refuted the story, maintaining that debts incurred by the committee had been paid in full, properly and on time.

The DSCC outraised its GOP counterpart by more than $3M in the past month, finishing the second quarter with a slight cash advantage.

Dems' Senate campaign arm pulled in $7.1M in June, ending the quarter with no debt and $21M in the bank. The DSCC spent $3.1M last month.

The NRSC, meanwhile, pulled in $4.03M in the last month and spent $2.51M. The party finished June debt-free and with $19.7M in the bank.

Both sides downplayed their own cash results and pointed to their successful candidates, who filed monthly reports late last week.

"As November approaches, enthusiasm for Democrats is only growing, as evidenced by our strong fundraising numbers and the strong fundraising totals of Democratic candidates across the country," DSCC executive director J.B. Poersch said in a statement.

Approximately 2,000 private citizens have filed ethics complaints against members of Congress, with a single incident accounting for nearly 9/10ths of all complaints, according to an Office of Congressional Ethics report issued today.

The report says 1,700 of the 2,000 complaints had to do with "a single issue involving the Executive Branch" and a member of Congress.

The OCE does not reveal the specific subject of those complaints, but it is likely to be Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA), who in May confirmed he had been offered a position by the Obama admin in exchange for staying out of a primary against Sen. Arlen Specter (D).

The controversy first erupted when Sestak appeared on a local PA TV show on Feb. 18 and said the WH had offered him a federal job in an effort to dissuade him from challenging Specter. Sestak constantly refused to elaborate on his claim.

After weeks of claiming she'd vote against the unemployment benefits extension unless spending cuts were made simultaneously, ex-HP CEO Carly Fiorina (R) shifted her position today, saying she would "probably" have broken with the GOP to support the extension.

"I probably would vote for this extension, but I'll tell you what, I think it is absolutely appropriate for people to stand on their desks and say, 'When is it that we're finally going to do what needs to be done and cut government spending?'" Fiorina said on a radio show this morning.

Fiorina brushed off the idea that it would be problematic to deviate from the GOP line. "The GOP isn't going to send me to Washington, DC, the people of California are," Fiorina said, according to the Los Angeles Times. "And the people of California want a little bit of practical problem-solving and common sense."

While Ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) has moved toward the center since the gubernatorial primary on issues such as immigration, this marks the first time in the Senate general election that Fiorina has made a prominent tack leftward.

The NRCC pulled in $9M in June and spent just $4M, socking away a big chunk of cash that will come in handy this Nov. and virtually guaranteeing the committee will have more to spend on TV ads this cycle than they did in '08.

The GOP's House campaign committee ended the month with $17M in the bank, fully $5M more than the committee reported on hand at the end of May.

The NRCC spent just $24M on TV ads last cycle, en route to a second straight major setback. This year, the NRCC's $17M would put them on pace to exceed that amount, especially if the party takes out the same line of credit they used in '08; that year, the GOP borrowed $8M to spend on key races in the closing stretch.

Update: The DCCC raised just over $9M in June, ending the month with $33.78M in the bank. A DCCC spokesperson points out that in '06, when Dems were just months away from winning back the House, the party had a $4M advantage over the majority GOPers.

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) spoke to Senate Dems at their weekly luncheon Tuesday in an appearance that came as GOPers worked to play up a report that Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid had multiple conversations with FL Gov. Charlie Crist (I).

Crist is running as independent against Meek and ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) in a contest for the Senate seat vacated by Sen. Mel Martinez's (R) retirement. Sen. George LeMeiux is currently serving as an interim senator.

The NRSC pointed to Reid's conversations to argue Dems are giving Meek, who trails substantially in polls, only nominal support in the hopes that Crist will caucus with the Dems if he wins.

Meek entered the lunch with a Reid aide, but did not meet with the maj. leader Tuesday, Reid spokesman Jim Manley said. Manley called Meek's meeting with Dems routine and unrelated to the speculation about Reid courting Crist. "Candidates sometimes make appearances before caucus," he said. "This is his turn."

Reid supports Meek in the race, Manley said.

The next GOP WH nominee will have to model their primary campaign largely on that of Pres. Obama, following a major primary calendar overhaul that will require candidates to think more strategically and rely less on force of personality and momentum alone.

Last month, a special RNC panel issued a proposal to begin the '12 primary process a month later than it had in '08. Under the new rules, 4 early states would be allowed to hold nominating contests in Feb., while other states would be allowed to hold their own contests in March or later.

But a key, if overlooked, aspect of the new rules would require any state holding its nominating contest in March to allocate its delegates proportionally -- preventing any candidate from winning a huge chunnk of delegates and effectively ending the primary contest early.

That change would have dramatically altered the '08 playing field, when Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) eliminated several serious contenders by winning in FL. In effect, the new rules would likely have prevented McCain from becoming the '08 nominee.

The Senate Judiciary Committee on Tuesday put a positive stamp on Solicitor General Elena Kagan's nomination to the Supreme Court, clearing the way for a floor debate expected to begin later this week.

The committee approved Kagan's nomination by a 13-6 margin, with most GOPers voting against. Only Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) crossed the aisle to side with Dems.

And the vote clarifies where key senators stand on her nomination. That's helping our whip count of Kagan backers and opponents in advance of the looming floor debate.

A note on methodology: We assume a vast majority -- if not all -- of the Dem caucus will vote to confirm Kagan. But we're going to be sticklers for a firm 'yes' -- or the very strong hint of a 'yes' in an interview.

YES VOTES: 19
Sens. Michael Bennet (report), Roland Burris (statement), Ben Cardin (statement), Byron Dorgan (statement), Dick Durbin (floor speech, 7/12), Russ Feingold (statement), Dianne Feinstein (statement, Al Franken (interview), Lindsey Graham (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), Tim Johnson (report), Ted Kaufman (statement), Amy Klobuchar (interview), Patrick Leahy (statement), Jeff Merkley (report), Chuck Schumer (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), Arlen Specter (op-ed), Debbie Stabenow (statement), Mark Udall (statement), Sheldon Whitehouse (interview).

NO VOTES: 18
Sens. Bob Bennett (statement), Saxby Chambliss (statement), Tom Coburn (op-ed), John Cornyn (statement), Jim DeMint (op-ed), Chuck Grassley (statement), Orrin Hatch (statement), Jim Inhofe (statement), Johnny Isakson (statement), Mike Johanns (statement), Jon Kyl (announced at committee hearing, 7/20), John McCain (op-ed), Mitch McConnell (statement), Lisa Murkowski (statement), Jeff Sessions (op-ed), John Thune (statement), David Vitter (statement), Roger Wicker (report).

Ex-NV Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) is up with the first in a planned series of positive spots, a recognition that her campaign needs to take a more active role in defining their candidate.

The ad shows Angle speaking to voters, laying out her view that government is the problem, rather than the solution.

"We have a fearful society right now. What they're afraid of is that what we're going to be passing down to our children is not liberty and freedom, but debt and deficit. That's why you and I have an opportunity right now to change the direction of our country," Angle says in the spot.

GOPers are worried that Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid has done an effective job in casting Angle as an out-of-the-mainstream candidate. Angle's campaign aides acknowledge as much in private, and the new series are an effort to portray Angle's views in a positive manner.

Angle's campaign is investing $330K for the first week of TV spots, according to a source close to the campaign. That's a significant buy in the relatively inexpensive state. Angle has already run one ad, a spot hitting Reid on the economy.

WV Gov. Joe Manchin (D) will run in a special election this year to replace the late Sen. Robert Byrd, he announced in a press conference Tuesday morning.

Manchin made his decision on Sunday while spending the day with his children, he said. Serving in the Senate would help him achieve his goal "to put myself in any positon I could to help the people of West Virginia."

"I will represent the people of West Virginia every day," he said.

If he wins the special election, Manchin will leave the governor's mansion after a term and a half. The decision to run for Senate, Manchin said, didn't come easily. "It was the toughest decision we've ever made. It's been 6 of the greatest years of my life. I've given it everything I have," Manchin said.

Under an agreement reached by the state legislature last night, voters will head to the polls to choose primary nominees on Aug. 28. The special election will take place in conjunction with the Nov. 2 midterms.

Dems jumped to their first significant advantage in the generic Congressional ballot all year after passing a major overhaul of regulations governing financial institutions, giving the party hope that their agenda is attracting voters.

Dems lead the generic ballot by a 49%-43% margin after leading by a 47%-46% margin in last week's poll. That improvement has been fueled by independent voters, who now favor a generic GOP candidate by a 43%-39% margin. Last week, independents favored GOPers by a 14-point margin; 2 weeks ago, GOPers enjoyed an 18-point edge.

Generic ballot measurements are a key indicator of midterm success, and Dems need at least a 5-point edge to overcome GOPers' habit of turning out at higher levels. The 6-point advantage they have at the moment is enough to give the party a major mental boost.

The shift comes a week after Dems passed a regulatory reform, a sweeping package that has proven widely popular. A USA Today/Gallup survey last week showed 55% of voters support the bill, including 56% of independent voters.

Rep. Walt Minnick (D-ID) has rejected an endorsement from the Tea Party Express after one of the group's leaders attacked the NAACP, according to a letter sent to the group Monday.

Minnick has been the only Dem endorsed by the Tea Party Express, the advocacy group that has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars in advocating for conservative candidates in key races around the country. But after co-chairman Mark Williams wrote an imaginary letter from freed slaves to Abraham Lincoln bashing the NAACP, Minnick shunned the group.

"The proper response to his perceived slight on the issue of race was not to use inflammatory sarcasm. Rather, I would have expected your organization to instead highlight the Tea Party I know, the one with good, decent folks who care very much about the serious financial issues facing our nation and who themselves would find Mr. Williams' blog post distasteful," Minnick wrote in a letter to Tea Party Express co-chair Amy Kremer.

"Instead, the Tea Party Express has apparently decided to stand by Mr. Williams and support him in his own contention that he did nothing wrong. I cannot agree with that course of action. Since the Tea Party Express refuses to reject and rebuke Mr. Williams, I have no choice but to decline your endorsement."

Good Tuesday morning. GA voters are voting, from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. today. Stay with Hotline OnCall for full results and analysis of key GOV, House and SEN primaries all night long.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

JOE MANCHIN: The WV state legislature reached agreement last night on a special election to fill the late Sen. Robert Byrd's seat, with a primary slated for Aug. 28 and a general election to be held on Nov. 2. Today, the WV governor will announce his intentions for the seat.

Manchin has made little secret of his desire to serve in the Senate, and he's widely expected to jump in the race with both feet when he makes his announcement at a 10 a.m. press conference. His approval ratings are through the roof, making Manchin a heavy favorite if he does decide to make a bid.

But a compromise in the legislation passed during a special session is leaving the door open for GOPers to recruit their best potential candidate as well. The special election law would allow a candidate to run both for the Senate seat and in the concurrent general election, meaning Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) could run both for re-election and for Senate. That gives GOPers hope, but Capito would still face an uphill climb against the hugely popular Manchin.

GA VOTERS: Voters head to the polls from 7 a.m. to 7 p.m. today to pick nominees to replace outgoing Gov. Sonny Perdue (R). Insurance Commis. John Oxendine (R) and ex-Sec/State Karen Handel (R) lead the GOP side, though they are likely to head to an Aug. 10 runoff if, as expected, they edge out ex-Rep. Nathan Deal (R) and ex-state Sen. Eric Johnson (R).

Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) has identified another "mama grizzly," and has thrown her support behind ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R) in the race to succeed NH Sen. Judd Gregg (R).

In a post on her Facebook page earlier this afternoon, Palin praised Ayotte's work as AG. "It's my honor to endorse a Granite State 'mama grizzly' who has broken barriers, fought off and locked up criminals, and battled all the way to the U.S. Supreme Court," wrote Palin. "Kelly is the strongest commonsense conservative who can win in the fall."

The endorsement will help grow Ayotte's conservative support and provide a fundraising boost. But at present, Ayotte's fiercest competition in the GOP race is the more centrist businessman Bill Binnie (R), which means the endorsement isn't likely to have as much of an impact among the voters the 2 front-runners are competing for currently. Still, the nod will allow Ayotte to build a base among conservative voters and perhaps steal away support from the conservative '96 GOV nominee/atty/ex-NH Bd. of Ed. chair Ovide Lamontagne (R), whose campaign has yet to generate much support.

There are two dominant questions entering the 7/20 GA-GOV primary: which two GOPers will clinch a spot in the runoff, and will ex-Gov. Roy Barnes (D) avoid a runoff altogether?

There are four leading contenders for the GOP nod, but because ex-Sec/State Karen Handel (R) is being showered with attacks, she's considered the frontrunner. Handel secured the two most significant endorsements of the race (ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) and AZ GOP Gov. Jan Brewer), even though they have come from out-of-state. The endorsements by the two most-recognizable female leaders of the modern conservative movement boosted Handel's showing in the polls to the point that she was running even-or-better against Insurance Commis. John Oxendine (R), long established as the leading contender for the GOP nod given his 15 years serving in a statewide post.

Before those endorsements, Handel was best known for her refusal to share any debate stage with radio/TV ad producer Ray McBerry (R) after allegations surfaced that he had a sexual relationship with a 16-year-old girl. McBerry's denied that repeatedly and has continued to debate. For better or worse, Handel's stayed true to her promise as, even over the weekend, she was a no-show at a GOP debate.

Illegal immigration has heavily fueled the candidacies of ex-Rep. Nathan Deal (R) and ex-state Senate Maj. Pro Tem Eric Johnson (R) and, recently, they both have made the case that they are in a position to qualify for a runoff. In order for either of them to clinch the nod, they'll likely have to pass Oxendine, as Handel's base of support among likely female voters seems to indicate she has enough of a base to secure a winning plurality.

Pres. Obama called on GOPers to end their obstruction of extended unemployment benefits in a Rose Garden statement on Monday, previewing a theme likely to become a central talking point for Dems this Nov.

"Over the past few weeks, a majority of senators have tried -- not once, not twice, but three times -- to extend emergency relief on a temporary basis," Obama said. "And each time, a partisan minority in the Senate has used parliamentary maneuvers to block a vote, denying millions of people who are out of work much-needed relief."

"Republican leaders in the Senate are advancing a misguided notion that emergency relief somehow discourages people from looking for a job," he added. "Well, I think that reflects a lack of faith in the American people."

Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid has been negotiating with a handful of GOPers and Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE) in hopes of passing the legislation before Congress leaves for Aug. recess. Each bill has gotten progressively smaller as GOPers have insisted that the legislation pay for itself.

Pres. Obama is going to be a drag on incumbent Dems, according to surveys and historical trends. But he'll hurt some in his own party much more than others, according to Gallup survey data compiled over the first half of the year.

Dems running for Senate in some of the most competitive races this year will have to decide whether to embrace Obama's agenda or run away as fast as possible. Those decisions are easier for some candidates than others, though GOPers will make the case in every state that a Dem is little more than a rubber stamp.

CT AG Dick Blumenthal (D) could see Obama as a huge positive. Gallup pollsters have pegged Obama's approval rating at 57% in the Nutmeg State. IL Treasurer Alexi Giannoulias (D) is grateful Obama's home state still views him very favorably; 54% of IL voters approve of Obama's job performance, while 39% disapprove.

And any effort to tie Sens. Patty Murray (D-WA), Ron Wyden (D-OR) or Barbara Boxer (D-CA) to Obama could backfire. WA voters approve of Obama's job performance by a 51%-42% margin, while OR voters approve 51%-41%. Boxer's constituents approve by a huge 56%-34% margin.

Dem members of Congress have been warned to stockpile money in advance of what is certain to be difficult re-election bids, and they're taking that advice. In key districts where the GOP hopes to steal back seats, second quarter fundraising reports show Dems have huge cash advantages over their GOP rivals.

Some of the GOP's best recruits are among the laggards. Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL) has $734K in hand, compared with $121K for Montgomery City Councillor Martha Roby (R). Rep. Travis Childers (D-MS) has $903K on hand, more than state Sen. Alan Nunnelee's (R) $233K.

After competitive primaries, businessman Scott Rigell (R) has just 1/5 the money of Rep. Glenn Nye (D-VA); and Rep. Tom Perriello (D-VA) has 8 times the cash of state Sen. Robert Hurt (R). Rep. Chet Edwards (D-TX) has more than $2.1M on hand, much more than businessman Bill Flores's (R) $415K.

Reps. Frank Kratovil (D-MD), Alan Grayson (D-FL) and Suzanne Kosmas (D-FL) all have much more money in the bank than their GOP rivals, advantages that will be exacerbated by pending GOP primaries. And state Rep. Roy Herron (D) has $1.2M on hand, while 3 GOPers spend themselves to exhaustion in advance of the Aug. 5 primary.

Good Monday morning. We're just back from a restful weekend in Bar Harbor, ME. Okay, maybe that was someone else. But congratulations to former Hotliner Mike Memoli, who headed travel pool coverage of Pres. Obama's quick weekend getaway.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who are going to make a difference in politics this week:

CARTE GOODWIN: The former chief counsel to WV Gov. Joe Manchin (D) will add a new title to his resume on Tuesday when he is sworn in as the 100th senator, replacing the late Sen. Robert Byrd, who passed away earlier this month. Goodwin comes from a prominent political family, and he's said to be contemplating a career in electoral politics as well. At just 36 years old, he's just about to meet a host of donors and DC types who could make that happen.

Goodwin will also make something else happen: As the 59th Dem in the Senate, Goodwin will be able to break a months-long deadlock in passing a new extension in unemployment benefits. Dems have been turned back again and again over the measure, which GOPers have filibustered out of concerns over cost. But with Goodwin in office, Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid is confident that he's got the votes to finally pass the bill.

How long Goodwin's presence will be felt is still up in the air. Manchin wants a quick resolution to the question of a special election, but the WV legislature was unable to reach agreement on how to move forward with an election over the weekend. That may leave Manchin -- who wants the seat himself -- to declare a special election, a decision that could come as early as today.

PRES. OBAMA: Obama makes a statement this morning on the state of the economy, his latest effort to frame the slow and slogging recovery as the best his admin could do. But as the last several weeks have proven, it's going to be tough to convince Americans that the economy really is coming out of its hole. Voters certainly don't believe that yet, according to months of surveys.

A lesson many people have learned the hard way, and the WH did again this week: Don't mess with Nancy Pelosi. She's not someone who takes slights, real or perceived, lightly.

Here's what else we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Amidst the flap between Speaker Pelosi and WH press sec. Robert Gibbs, the Dems began trying to shift the midterm narrative in their favor. After a Tues. meeting between Pres. Obama and Senate Dem leaders, Gibbs said they had agreed to hold votes in the next few weeks on financial reform, extending unemployment benefits, and a measure to support lending to small businesses. None of them are populist slam dunks, but the WH's "Recovery Summer" might become a better campaign tool if the Dems can provoke GOP opposition on economic legislation.

-- At one point the GOP thought it could put 8 of the PA's 12 Dem seats in play. But while the state may still be good to House GOPers, new FEC numbers show that several of the party's second-tier targets in the state are on the verge of moving off the competitive race list. That's because GOP challengers against Reps. Chris Carney (D) and Tim Holden (D) have raised next to nothing, while Rep. Jason Altmire (D) holds a huge fundraising lead in his race. All three sit in McCain districts, and if they don't receive at least a scare, it's a lost opportunity for the GOP.

-- It's always good to have a viable second-tier candidate in case your front-runner implodes. Witness the CO GOV freak-out at the moment, GOPers know ex-Rep. Scott McInnis (R) won't survive this plagiarism scandal, and businessman Dan Maes (R) has no money and no name ID to take his place.

The confirmation hearings are over, and senators have begun to make up their minds about Solicitor General Elena Kagan. We're keeping a whip count of Kagan backers and her opponents in advance of this month's floor debate.

A note on methodology: We assume a vast majority -- if not all -- of the Dem caucus will vote to confirm Kagan. But we're going to be sticklers for a firm 'yes' -- or the very strong hint of a 'yes' in an interview.

YES VOTES: 14
Sens. Michael Bennet (report), Ben Cardin (statement), Dick Durbin (floor speech, 7/12), Russ Feingold (statement), Al Franken (interview), Tim Johnson (report), Ted Kaufman (statement), Amy Klobuchar (interview), Patrick Leahy (statement), Jeff Merkley (report), Arlen Specter (op-ed), Debbie Stabenow (statement), Mark Udall (statement), Sheldon Whitehouse (interview).

NO VOTES: 13
Sens. Bob Bennett (statement), John Cornyn (statement), Jim DeMint (op-ed), Orrin Hatch (statement), Jim Inhofe (statement), Johnny Isakson (statement), Mike Johanns (statement), John McCain (op-ed), Mitch McConnell (statement), Lisa Murkowski (statement), John Thune (statement), David Vitter (statement), Roger Wicker (report)

House Race Hotline editor Tim Sahd takes a look at the most notable numbers from this quarter's fundraising performances:

-- It may or may not be an anti-incumbent year, but members are still holding their fundraising advantage. 30 vulnerable incumbents were outraised, but just eight were outbanked. One big problem area for Dems: OH. Steve Driehaus (D-01), Mary Jo Kilroy (D-15) and Betty Sutton (D-13) were outraised and outbanked. Meanwhile, just one GOP incumbent trailed his challenger in 2ndQ receipts: Dan Lungren (R-CA 03), who has become a perennially weak fundraiser.

-- Some Members had putrid qtrs but were saved by their opponents. Joseph Cao (R-LA 02) took in just $141K, but his Dem challengers performed even worse. And Larry Kissell (D-NC 08) again failed to do much of anything (he raised just $104K), but a fractious primary kept his challenger busy.

-- While the GOP looks strong in OH, several of the party's races in PA are in danger of falling off the map. Chris Carney (D-10), Tim Holden (D-17) and Jason Altmire (D-04) all face GOPers who haven't exactly lit the world on fire.

Your Hotline OnCall editor writes in this week's National Journal:

From the outside, the 2010 midterm elections look like a standard battle between the two ends of the political spectrum, with Democrats fighting to retain power and Republicans working to recapture Congress. But in truth, neither party's structure is monolithic; both are becoming weaker as political power and the money that comes with it diffuse outside the Beltway.

National party organizations have become more influential over recent years as party strategists have sought to recruit stronger candidates. But in this election cycle, both Democrats and Republicans are out of favor. The populist anger at Washington will benefit the GOP this fall, but the party's efforts to maximize its advantage by picking centrist candidates have encountered serious resistance from activists who are signaling that they, not Beltway bigwigs, own the party.

In Senate races in Kentucky and Nevada, candidates who had overt support from GOP leaders in Washington lost their primaries. The winners -- Rand Paul and Sharron Angle -- were backed by the Tea Party Express, a political action group run by a prominent California Republican strategist and allied with former Alaska Gov. Sarah Palin; the conservative Club for Growth; and Sen. Jim DeMint, R-S.C., the archconservative who has said he would prefer a Senate minority of 30 purists over a majority of those he considers "Republican in Name Only."

Sen. Patty Murray (D) is up with her first TV ad, a 30-second spot in which she highlights support from veterans. The ad, produced by Karl Struble, features various veterans praising the incumbent, who sits on the Senate Veterans' Affairs Committee. "Senator Murray stopped the VA from closing three hospitals," says a veteran in the ad.

Murray's ad comes days after the American Action Network launched its own spot blasting Murray over spending and taxes.

Ex-state Sen. Dino Rossi's (R) recent decision to enter the race has made the campaign more competitive and expensive. While this is Murray's first ad and Rossi has yet to go up on TV himself, both camps have shown an ability to raise money, so a steady stream of ads from both candidates may be on the horizon.

Murray's first ad, "Never Forgotten":

Meet the Press hosts NRSC chair John Cornyn (TX) and DSCC chair Bob Menendez (NJ), and NRCC chair Pete Sessions (TX) and DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen (MD).

Face the Nation hosts TBD.

This Week hosts VP Joe Biden, ex-WH press sec. DeeDee Myers, Chicago Tribune's Clarence Page, McCain-Palin aide/ex-Bush aide Nicole Wallace and Washington Post's George Will.

Fox News Sunday hosts House Maj. Whip James Clyburn (SC) and House GOP Conference chair Mike Pence (IN).

State of the Union hosts Sen. min. Leader Mitch McConnell (KY) and House maj. leader Steny Hoyer (MD).

The rest of the weekend shows after the jump.

The GOP's efforts to involve ordinary citizens in building a new version of the Contract with America is an abdication of leadership, one of the party's own Congressional candidates.

Speaking to the Idaho Press-Tribune, state Rep. Raul Labrador (R) said he is not impressed by America Speaking Out, a project of the House GOP Conference aimed at soliciting ideas from the general public that can then morph into a campaign platform.

"I was excited. I was like -- 'cause I loved the Contract with America. I thought what Newt Gingrich did was fantastic," Labrador said of a Fox News interview with Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who heads America Speaking Out. "And this guy looks into the TV and he says, 'What we are going to do is we are going to go online and we are going to let people tell us their ideas about what we should be doing and than we are going to make a list of the top ten. And than that's going to be our new contract.' I'm probably exaggerating here a little bit, but it was so underwhelming."

"This is your new contract with America? You're going to let the people say what their thoughts and their ideas are?" Labrador asked.

Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid is doing something he hasn't been able to do all cycle: Leading a poll by more than the margin of error.

Reid leads ex-Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) by a 44%-37% margin, according to the Las Vegas Review-Journal/KLAS-TV survey conducted by Mason-Dixon. In the last R-J poll, conducted just before the GOP primary, Angle led by a 44%-41% margin.

Angle has lost ground among virtually every significant voter subset, the Review-Journal wrote today, after a month in which Reid has hammered her record and highlighted controversial statements on Social Security, abortion and jobs.

Since June, Angle has lost 9 points among men; 5 points among women; 5 points among populous Clark Co. residents; and 17 points in Washoe Co., home of Reno. Even GOPers are less enthusiastic about Angle after her primary win: 70% say they would vote for her, down from 81% last month.

WV Gov. Joe Manchin (D) is set to name former advisor Carte Goodwin to the seat once held by the late Sen. Robert Byrd in an announcement to be made later today.

The AP reported that Manchin will tap Goodwin, Manchin's former general counsel. Goodwin is from a prominent WV political family, and at just 36 years of age he has already built a hefty resume of his own.

Goodwin will fill several months of Byrd's unexpired term. State legislators are heading to a special session to revise WV's election laws to allow for a new election this year.

Manchin is expected to run for the seat himself once a special election is held. Goodwin, for his part, is considering a political future of his own, according to WV political analysts.

With more than half the primaries complete, and only 2 taking place in July, campaign season may feel like it has reached a lull.

But there is still plenty of action left to look forward to in the remaining primaries, including debates worthy of some attention. Some may make or break a race, some mark the only occasions candidates will address each other face to face this cycle and some promise to just be plain entertaining. Here are a few we've got our eye on:

AZ SEN on 7/16 and 7/17: After repeatedly lobbying for debates, ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) will finally get a shot at McCain tonight and tomorrow. Trailing badly in the polls with the clock running out on him, look for Hayworth to immediately go on the offensive, which may result in some sharp exchanges and memorable quotes.

After negative campaigning from both sides and a series of videos and releases from the McCain campaign mocking Hayworth's various gaffes, the 2 debates may be Hayworth's only remaining opportunity to try present himself as a serious alternative to McCain. Look for Hayworth to hit McCain on connections to Ponzi schemer Scott Rothstein and accuse the incumbent of flip-flopping on immigration and other issues.

Good Friday morning. Your Starting Lineup may be late for a few days, given some staffing changes, but we're still here, don't worry.

Here's today's edition, a special look at the winners and losers of the second quarter fundraising circuit:

THREE UP

Sharron Angle: Angle's win in the GOP primary last month had some GOPers nervous -- how could someone who barely raises money compete with a juggernaut like Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid? Well, Angle made up some ground, pulling in $2.3M after the primary. In total last quarter, Angle raised $2.6M, slightly more than Reid's $2.4M.

Reid still has a huge advantage, with $9M in the bank compared to just $1.8M for Angle. And he's using his cash to his benefit; a new Mason-Dixon poll out this morning for the Las Vegas Review-Journal shows Reid leading Angle, 44%-37%. But Angle's no pushover, as her mega-haul shows.

Charlie Crist: Crist bolted the GOP primary field last quarter and he still managed to pull in $1.8M -- almost double what Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) raised. Crist's $8.2M in the bank won't guarantee him a solid result in Nov., but without the party apparatus behind him, it's an excellent start. One lesson: Approval ratings matter, and people still like Gov. Crist.

FL Gov. Charlie Crist (I) raised $1.8M in his first quarter as an independent candidate, maintaining his fundraising lead over rivals despite being without a party to call his own.

Crist actually raised more money in the second quarter than he did in the first 3 months of the year, when he pulled in $1.1M. He ended the quarter with $8.2M in the bank, about $600K more than he had at the end of the first quarter.

Crist changed his party affiliation on May 13, a little less than halfway through the second quarter. Political watchers were keeping a close eye on Crist's fundraising performance to witness the extent of his financial drop-off, but a number of fundraisers rallied around Crist and promised to keep the money flowing.

He will need a serious amount of cash to remain competitive in the race. Without support from either the Dem or GOP establishment, Crist will need to build his own field operation, something that will cost a hefty sum.

GOPers are supremely confident that they will have a big advantage on major policy issues as they head into the midterm election. Dems aren't quite so bullish about their own prospects. But they see plusses on some issues, and a more mixed picture on others.

Those were the responses to the latest National Journal Congressional Insiders poll in which both parties were asked to rate the election impact of 5 major policy issues.

On the economy, for example, 93% of the GOP respondents say that their party will benefit and the remainder said that neither party will have an advantage. "Where are the jobs?" was a familiar GOP refrain. Another cited GOP setbacks in recent election by comparison and commented, "Was it worse in '06 or '08 than now? Hardly!"

Among Dems, 49% replied that their party will have the advantage, 18% gave the edge to the GOP and 33% said neither. "I think we can convince a majority that we are rebounding," was the ambivalent best case of one Dem. A more edgy Dem replied, 'Republicans are still saying that the unbridled free market will solve everything. Look how well that worked the last time."

AG Patrick Lynch (D) has ended his bid to replace RI Gov. Don Carcieri (R), clearing the way for Treas. Frank Caprio (D).

In a video posted on his campaign website earlier this afternoon, Lynch characterized the Dem primary as shaping up to be an expensive and polarizing contest.

"A divisive, costly battle would most likely result in the wrong leadership, at a pivotal moment in time for Rhode Islanders," said Lynch. The AG also threw his support firmly behind Caprio, saying he supports the RI Treas. "wholeheartedly and enthusiastically."

Caprio was endorsed by the RI Dem State Central Committee late last month and among the 2 Dems, Caprio proved to be the better fundraiser while consistently outperforming Lynch in public polling. With the Dem field cleared for Caprio, he can now look to a general election contest which will include ex-GOP Sen. Lincoln Chafee (I).

Appearing today on ABC's "Top Line," retired LA Supreme Court Justice Chet Traylor (R) said that he's in the race because "people are concerned" about Sen. David Vitter's (R-LA) personal and public missteps.

"Quite frankly, if he wasn't in trouble, I wouldn't be in the race," Traylor said. It "remains to be seen" whether he'll use the D.C. Madam scandal and the fracas surrounded ex-Vitter aide Brent Furer against the incumbent GOPer, but Traylor needs to have a fast start to catch up with just 6 weeks until the Aug. 28th primary.

Traylor claimed both Vitter and people around him have broken the law with Furer, who was fired after news reports of his arrest for assaulting his girlfriend on Capitol Hill. "The issue with his aide is certainly something to be considered," Traylor said.

"The party leaders don't necessarily get to make the choice," Traylor said. "The voters are going to decide who they want."

Major Dem donors who wrote checks to the Democratic Governors Association funded a below-the-radar campaign that attacked Pres. Obama and other Dem all-stars, all in hopes of knocking off a strong GOP challenger.

"Liberal Terry Branstad would make Bill Clinton, Barack Obama and Nancy Pelosi proud," reads one mailer, sent by a shadow group called Iowans for Responsible Government. "When it comes to health care, Terry Branstad sounds a lot like Barack Obama," reads another.

The mailer attacked Branstad, who won the IA GOP primary last month. Branstad, a former 4-term governor, faced a much more conservative contender, '06 LG nominee Bob Vander Plaats, in the GOP primary; Branstad won by about 10 points, a smaller margin than earlier polls had predicted.

Iowans for Responsible Government is a 527 group founded by Rob Tully, the former state Dem Party chairman. Reports filed with the Internal Revenue Service this morning show the group raised $782K and spent $767K in the second quarter. That money came entirely from the DGA, in 3 contributions in May and June.

As many as 70 House seats are in play this election cycle, DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen said Thursday as he sought to downplay a rift between House Dem leaders and the WH.

"It's between 60 and 70 seats in play. That includes Democrats and Republican seats in play," Van Hollen said on MSNBC Thursday morning, maintaining the midterms will be a choice between Dems and GOPers. "There are a lot of seats in play, but again, it's all going to come down to that choice between 2 candidates."

Van Hollen and Dem leaders met at the WH with Pres. Obama on Wednesday night, where House members expressed frustration over press sec. Robert Gibbs' comments that control of the House is in jeopardy. House Dems also pressed the WH for further commitment to keeping the lower chamber, including campaign and fundraising assistance and surrogate travel.

Dems are frustrated that Gibbs' comments have remained news -- and fodder for giddy GOPers -- so long after Gibbs made his appearance on "Meet the Press." And in truth, Van Hollen said Thursday, Gibbs' comments were accurate.

Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell will accuse Dems of playing the "politics of personal destruction" while pledging a GOP return to smaller, more restrained government in a major speech to conservative activists today.

In remarks to the Young Republican Leadership Conference, McConnell attacked Dems as bearers of big government -- and, worse, big government that doesn't work.

"The cracks in the Democrats' foundation continued to spread. And today, just a year and a half after Democrats took over, confident that Washington bureaucrats had the answers to our problems, virtually every survey you look at shows that Americans have lost faith in the Democrat leadership and in government period," McConnell said. "As it turns out, when your entire pitch to the American people is that government will solve your problems, people get upset when government can't deliver."

McConnell said Dems have gone overboard in taking advantage of numerous crises, including an ongoing flood of oil spilling into the Gulf of Mexico. Dems have used the disaster to push for new energy legislation, an easy target for GOPers who say the admin continually overreaches.

The confirmation hearings are over, and senators have begun to make up their minds about Solicitor General Elena Kagan. We're keeping a whip count of Kagan backers and her opponents in advance of this month's floor debate.

A note on methodology: We assume a vast majority -- if not all -- of the Dem caucus will vote to confirm Kagan. But we're going to be sticklers for a firm 'yes' -- or the very strong hint of a 'yes' in an interview.

YES VOTES: 13
Sens. Michael Bennet (report), Ben Cardin (statement), Dick Durbin (floor speech^, 7/12), Russ Feingold (statement), Al Franken (interview), Ted Kaufman (statement), Amy Klobuchar (interview*), Patrick Leahy (statement), Jeff Merkley (report), Arlen Specter (op-ed), Debbie Stabenow (statement), Mark Udall (statement), Sheldon Whitehouse (interview^^).

NO VOTES: 12
Sens. Bob Bennett (statement), John Cornyn (statement), Jim DeMint (op-ed), Orrin Hatch (statement), Jim Inhofe (statement), Johnny Isakson (statement), Mike Johanns (statement), John McCain (op-ed), Mitch McConnell (statement), Lisa Murkowski (statement), John Thune (statement), David Vitter (statement).

Update: On Thursday afternoon, both Feingold and Stabenow released statements saying they would vote for Kagan.

Ex-Manchester, NH, Mayor Frank Guinta (R) was grandstanding when he complained last year the Granite State wasn't getting its share of stimulus dollars, according to an email ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R) wrote at the time. Now, the 2 may share a ballot line as they both seek federal office.

The former AG has released thousands of emails from her tenure as the state's top law enforcement official. Her GOP rivals in the race to replace Sen. Judd Gregg (R) have pressured Ayotte to release the emails in the wake of a scandal surrounding an alleged Ponzi scheme that cost NH investors millions of dollars.

Amid the emails discussing routine and mundane office tasks and initiatives, Ayotte took note of a March 1, '09 front-page article by New Hampshire Union Leader political columnist John DiStaso, in which Guinta said state officials "are either dragging their feet or having trouble interpreting and reacting to the requirements of the complex law."

"Pressure coming your way," Ayotte wrote [pdf] in an email that morning to her top deputy, Orville "Bud" Fitch. Then, of Guinta, Ayotte wrote: "He is such a grandstande [.]" Fitch replied: "The fun never ends!"

Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid is still planning to bring major campaign finance legislation to the Senate floor before Aug. recess, a sign some observers believe indicates Dems are willing to allow the bill to die at the hands of a GOP filibuster.

Reid had promised Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD) and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY) he would bring the DISCLOSE Act to the floor. But Dems haven't been able to attract a Senate GOP sponsor, raising questions about the bill's future.

"He's committed, one way or the other, to bring it up and to have those votes," said a senior Dem leadership aide. On Wednesday, Reid listed the DISCLOSE Act among his priorities to pass before the Aug. break.

But, acknowledged the aide, with a Supreme Court nomination, unemployment benefits, an energy bill, a supplemental appropriations act and other major items on the table, the clock is ticking. "Our only enemy, other than Republicans that won't let us take it up, is time," the aide said.

Ex-Amb. Tom Foley (R) leads the GOP pack in the race to replace outgoing Gov. Jodi Rell (R), but he'll face a difficult hurdle against any of the possible Dems he faces in the general election, according to a new Quinnipiac Univ. survey.

The poll shows Foley leading LG Mike Fedele (R) and businessman Oz Griebel (R) by a 48%-13%-7% margin. But questions about Foley's divorce and several arrests, prompting an in-depth refutation from the Foley campaign, highlight what remains a volatile race.

Indeed, just 25% of likely GOP primary voters said their minds are made up, while 73% might change their opinion. And Foley's supporters are the least committed to their candidate -- just 22% of his backers say they're certain to vote for him.

Just 10% of voters have read a lot about Foley's arrests, while 31% say they've read "some" about the controversy. 28% call those arrests a legitimate issue, and 30% say it makes them less likely to vote for him in the GOP primary. Fedele has been trying to capitalize on Foley's past, and he still has a chance, but with the Aug. 10 primary just around the corner that chance is dwindling.

Good Thursday morning. The day after the MlB All Star game always feels like an epic letdown. The only thing we needed was a good golf story. What's that? John Daly's leading the Open Championship after day one? We're satisfied.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

HOUSE SPEAKER NANCY PELOSI: Tensions have been brewing for months between the WH and House Dem leaders. And last night, during an Oval Office meeting, Pelosi and her team were set to urge Pres. Obama to get more engaged in the fight to keep the House. Obama has done events for several Senate candidates, and events that have benefited the DCCC, but he hasn't fundraised for House members individually, something that has not gone unnoticed by those on the front lines.

It's not the first time Pelosi has issued a kind of ultimatum. Last year, she moved a cap and trade bill before dealing with health care legislation, widely seen as a maneuver designed to remind the WH that there are 2 chambers of Congress, rather than just the Senate. And though Dems face tough races in Senate contests too, it's the House that is in most jeopardy of flipping. Without control of both chambers, the Dem agenda will slow dramatically.

The Dem infighting is a serious distraction just months before the midterm elections, and the WH isn't letting House Dem assertions go unchallenged, distributing a memo aimed at showing off how much work Obama's done. But Dems have come to a realization: As much as they talk about making individual races choice elections, their fates are largely tied to the WH's. He's not a total negative, either: Obama brings money, and he's still popular with a base that must turn out to save seats.

SENATE DEMS: Ah, but there are 2 chambers, and today the real spotlight will be on the upper house. Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid has said a cloture vote on financial regulatory reform, and possibly even final passage, could come as early as today, after key members like Sens. Scott Brown (R-MA), Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Maria Cantwell (D-WA) said they would vote for the package over the last several days.

Sen. John McCain (R) has opened up a commanding lead over ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R), according to a new poll in AZ, the latest sign that Hayworth's insurgent challenge from the right is spiraling to earth.

The Rocky Mountain Poll, conducted by the Behavior Research Center in Phoenix, shows McCain trouncing Hayworth by a 64%-19% margin. In the last such survey, conducted April 25, McCain held a 54%-28% lead.

McCain's expanding lead is an indication that Hayworth ceded further ground this past spring in a race he was already trailing.

Beleaguered by attacks stemming from the recent revelation that he pitched government grants in an '07 infomercial -- a story that broke the week before the Rocky Mountain poll was conducted -- and up against a well-funded opponent, Hayworth has not been able to generate enough enthusiasm around his bid to close the gap on the incumbent.

House Dems are steamed at a series of comments from the WH this week in which officials openly acknowledged the party's hold on Congress is tenuous at best, and Dem leaders will raise the issue in an Oval Office meeting with Pres. Obama tonight.

House leaders are headed to the WH for a strategy session, in which the party will plot their legislative course over the 3 weeks before Aug. recess. But following Robert Gibbs' appearance on "Meet the Press" this weekend, in which he said GOPers will put enough seats in play to take control of the House, aides said Dems may bring up the level of commitment the WH has shown to their candidates.

"I think there's no doubt that there are a lot of seats that will be up, a lot of contested seats," Gibbs said on "Meet the Press" on Sunday. "I think there's no doubt there are enough seats in play that could cause Republicans to gain control. There's no doubt about that."

Gibbs wasn't saying anything new. Most political observers believe the GOP has already succeeded in putting in play a large number of seats, well over the 39 the GOP would need to win to pick up the majority. But that the WH would acknowledge it made some Dems see red.

The confirmation hearings are over, and senators have begun to make up their minds about Solicitor General Elena Kagan. We're keeping a whip count of Kagan backers and her opponents in advance of this month's floor debate.

A note on methodology: We assume a vast majority -- if not all -- of the Dem caucus will vote to confirm Kagan. But we're going to be sticklers for a firm 'yes' -- or the very strong hint of a 'yes' in an interview.

YES VOTES: 10
Sens. Michael Bennet (report), Ben Cardin (statement), Dick Durbin (floor speech^, 7/12), Al Franken (interview), Ted Kaufman (floor speech)**, Amy Klobuchar (interview*), Patrick Leahy (statement~), Jeff Merkley (report), Mark Udall (statement), Sheldon Whitehouse (interview^^).

NO VOTES: 10
Sens. Bob Bennett (statement), Jim DeMint (op-ed), Orrin Hatch (statement), Jim Inhofe (statement), Johnny Isakson (statement), Mike Johanns (statement), John McCain (op-ed), Mitch McConnell (statement), Lisa Murkowski (statement), John Thune (statement).

The Senate could vote Tuesday to extend unemployment benefits that have expired for millions of Americans, Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid said today.

At a news conference, Reid charged that GOP opposition to Dem electoral plans reflects the hope that a continued economic slump will help the minority win seats. GOPers "are betting on failure," Reid said. "They think the worse the economy is ... the better they are going to do, election-wise."

Reid's comment follows months of Dem criticism of Senate GOPers for opposing an extension of unemployment benefits without offsetting the cost. But it marks the first time Reid has indicated that GOPers deliberately are working to hurt the economy. It comes as Dems try to draw a contrast with GOPers on economic plans.

DSCC Chairman Robert Menendez made the same charge later Wednesday. GOPers' political strategy is to slow progress in hopes it "will translate into votes for them in November," he said. "The more that we about this, the more people understand what they choices are."

The results of the AL run-offs didn't produce a clean "outsider beats insider" narrative. While Robert Bentley beat establishment fav Bradley Byrne in the GOP GOV run-off, the NRCC got its candidate -- Martha Roby -- in AL-02 and EMILY's List's Terri Sewell won in AL-07. Even so, AL voters universally dismissed candidates with over-the-top ads (think: "Gather your armies" and "In AL we speak English"). Anger, it seems, does have its limits, even among a partisan audience.

-- The other lessons from AL GOV contest: authenticity and issues matter. While Byrne focused on attacking the AEA and Bentley, he forgot to hammer home the defining issue of the election season: jobs. Bentley, meanwhile, focused on defining himself as an honest broker who was interested in getting past attacks and onto substance. The fact that he was stiff and even a bit awkward in his ads actually helped him look more real. Ultimately, people who take the time to turn out in a run-off want to vote for someone not just against something. Bentley gave them that motivation; Byrne never did.

-- There's also something to be said about the diminishing power of negative ads. At a time when voters are as cynical as ever about the process, traditional attacks alone aren't going to sway voters.

The WH will begin claiming the stimulus package passed last year has created or save about 3M jobs, boasting that the admin's signature piece of economic recovery legislation is working.

The stimulus package has raised employment by between 2.5M and 3.6M jobs, according to a new report [pdf] from the Council of Economic Advisers. The bill raised gross domestic product by between 2.7% and 3.2%, the report estimates.

And there is more spending to come, aimed at creating new positions. Just a quarter of the $319B set aside for investments in infrastructure, energy and worker training has been spent so far. The $86.3B that has been spent is responsible for 800K jobs so far, the report estimates.

The public remains skeptical of the stimulus package, which passed last year with votes from just 3 GOP senators. Voters disapprove of Pres. Obama's handling of the economy, and most remain pessimistic about the pace of the recovery.

Ex-Rep. Scott McInnis (R) has apologized for copying whole sections of an '05 essay on CO water rights, spurring calls that he drop out of the race and return the thousands of dollars he was paid by an educational foundation.

McInnis wrote the essay, "Musings on Water," for the Hasan Family Foundation, a conservative think tank. He was paid $300K for the essays, which he claimed were original. But this week, McInnis admitted that much of the essay came from an '84 paper penned by Gregory Hobbs. Hobbs is now a CO Supreme Court justice.

"It's unacceptable, it's inexcusable, but it was also unintentional," McInnis said in a statement provided to the AP. "I made a mistake."

McInnis apologized to Hobbs, a campaign aide told the AP. The foundation said it would conduct an investigation, and that it might seek a refund for the fellowship it gave McInnis.

Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD) is highlighting her opposition to health care legislation in her campaign's first ad, becoming the latest Dem to run away from one of her party's signature legislative achievements.

"I'm as determined to be an independent voice for South Dakota today, as I was then," Herseth Sandlin says after replaying her first campaign ad from '04. "It's why I voted against the bailouts and a trillion-dollar health care plan, but for expanding renewable energy and improving veterans' benefits."

Herseth Sandlin has built a record as one of the most conservative Dems in Congress. But her state remains red, and anger at national Dems could help GOPers win the seat, even if Herseth Sandlin's record is more in line with her constituents.

GOPers are excited about state Rep. Kristi Noem (R), who won a surprise victory over 2 better-known and better-funded candidates in the June 8 primary. Noem has been named an NRCC "Young Gun," meaning the party will give her fundraising and campaign assistance.

After the jump, Herseth Sandlin's first ad.

Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA) has provided Dems with some key votes in recent months, but he won't help them pass sweeping campaign finance reform legislation despite pressure from pro-reform groups, he said on Wednesday.

In a letter to groups that urged him to back the legislation, Brown said the DISCLOSE Act did not go far enough in requiring "transparency, accountability and fair play."

"Rather than reform our campaign finance laws and provide increased transparency, the DISCLOSE Act advances the political agenda of the majority party and special interests in an effort to gain a tactical and political advantage little more than 100 days before an election," Brown wrote.

Brown's support was seen as crucial to the bill's success. The DISCLOSE Act, sponsored by Rep. Chris Van Hollen (D-MD), passed the House by a narrow margin last month, but chief Senate sponsor Chuck Schumer (D-NY) has been unable to find a GOP partner for the bill. Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid has promised floor time for the bill before the Aug. recess, but without Brown's vote it faces dim prospects.

Rep. Joe Sestak (D-PA) has made up ground after a contentious primary battle and finds himself tied with ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R), according to a new Quinnipiac Univ. survey.

The poll shows Sestak and Toomey tied at 43%. It's the first Quinnipiac poll in which Sestak has not trailed Toomey. The last poll, released May 13, just before the Dem primary, showed Toomey ahead by a 42%-40% margin.

His primary fight with Sen. Arlen Specter (D) has not hurt Sestak's performance among Dems, where he attracts 77% of the vote. Toomey, too, has coalesced his base, winning 82% of the vote. Independents break for Toomey by a 44%-35% margin.

Toomey begins the general election sprint in a stronger general election position. His campaign announced yesterday it raised $3.1M in the last quarter, keeping $4.6M in the bank. Sestak largely drained his campaign account in the primary; he raised $2M and held the same amount in reserve.

Good Wednesday morning. Now's the time for Dems to truly panic: The last 9 times the GOP has picked up 20 or more seats, the National League has won the All Star game. Last night, for the first time since '96, the NL beat the AL.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

WV GOV. JOE MANCHIN: Manchin has called a special session of the state legislature, in order to clarify laws surrounding vacancies and special elections. The state legislature is expected to codify new rules in order to allow for a special election this year to replace the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D).

Manchin will appoint a temporary replacement between now and Friday, he said yesterday. The short list is already likely set -- filled with Manchin's former advisors and those close to Byrd. The pick won't come a moment too soon, as Senate Dems are still struggling to pass an extension of unemployment benefits.

And shortly after Manchin makes his pick, he's likely to announce his own intentions to run for Byrd's seat. Manchin's interest in serving in the Senate has been little secret, and the NRSC sees him as an all-but-certain candidate; they've even started their oppo research on Manchin. If Manchin does get in the race, whenever the special election might be, he will start out as the heavy favorite. It helps, too, that the GOP doesn't have a front-running candidate, given Rep. Shelley Moore Capito's (R) apparent disinterest in making a bid.

FL GOV. CHARLIE CRIST: Remember when Crist's campaign was supposed to collapse after he bolted the GOP? Without state party support and without the infrastructure to canvas neighborhoods from Miami to Pensacola, Crist wasn't supposed to last long. The funny thing is, he's still ahead.

AL voters tonight picked an NRCC "Young Gun" to advance in the race against Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL 02), and Dems selected atty Terri Sewell (D) in the heavily Dem Seventh CD, where the Dem is almost automatically assured of the seat in the fall.

In the GOP runoff to take on Bright, Montgomery Councilor Martha Roby (R) easily defeated businessman Rick Barber (R), 61-39%. Roby nearly avoided a runoff with her 49% performance in the 6/1 primary, but fell a thousand votes shy of that goal. Instead, she was forced to spend precious resources against a Tea Party challenger who gained national fame with a series of quirky web ads.

Still, the runoff was likely to do little damage to Roby, as Barber spent much more time talking to nat'l media figures about his web spots that featured actors portraying "George Washington" and other founding fathers rather than attacking Roby. In fact, in a post-primary debate, Barber promised to back Roby should she win. The size of Roby's win should also help quickly heal any wounds.

There were few policy differences between the candidates, but social conservative orgs appeared to rally around Roby as they were troubled by revelations that Barber's business, a bar, hosted illegal poker tournaments.

Other than that, there were few big issues in this race, so the party is likely to come together rather quickly, unlike in '08, when a bitter primary may have cost state Rep. Jay Love (R) a victory in the fall.

Roby has not been a particularly strong fundraiser, bringing in just $120K from 4/1-6/24, and banking just over $100K in the weeks leading up to the primary. The runoff deprived her of precious resources against a strong incumbent in Bright. Still, Bright didn't take advantage of Roby's runoff preoccupation, as he brought in just $86K in the 2ndQ (through 6/24). Still, he sits on a rather substantial $648K warchest.

Roby faces an uphill battle against the Blue Dog Bright, who just last week won the Chamber of Commerce endorsement. But in a CD that gave John McCain 63%, she'll always have a chance at pulling this out.

Meanwhile, in the heavily Dem AL-07 open seat, Sewell captured the Dem nod -- and almost certainly the seat -- when she defeated Jefferson Co. Commis. Shelia Smoot (D), 57-43%. Sewell will vie to replace Rep. Artur Davis (D), who lost the Dem GOV primary, in the fall.

Sewell, who was backed by EMILY's List, heavily outraised Smoot in the race, and was able to air TV ads. That was a luxury Smoot was not able to afford. Smoot was backed by Maj. Whip James Clyburn (who backed 3rd-Place primary finisher/state Rep. Earl Hilliard (D) in the primary), but was not able to raise any significant amount of cash.

State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) beat back a push from the entire AL GOP power structure in defeating ex-state Community College chancellor/ex-state Sen. Bradley Byrne (R) tonight, keeping alive the narrative that voters are not in the mood this year to take voting instructions from party bosses.

With just over half the precincts reporting, Bentley held a 12-point lead over Byrne. Byrne had from the likes of Gov. Bob Riley (R) and members of the congressional delegation in his corner, along with outside help from pundits like Dick Morris. Sen. Jeff Sessions (R) even wrote a letter to the AL GOP chair emphasizing that Dems were trying to steal the election from Byrne. As late as Monday, Byrne claimed that a win for Bentley would be a win for Dems and the AL Education Assoc., which has a long-running feud with Byrne.

Bentley, endorsed by ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), cast himself as an outsider, saying he was not part of the "clique" that Byrne belonged to with the AL GOP's party bosses. Without having to run under the Tea Party banner, Bentley essentially replicated Rep. Joe Sestak's (D) message in PA: the entire establishment is against me but I'm for the people.

While Byrne focused his energy on attacking the AEA and Bentley, he forgot to hammer home the defining issue of the election season: jobs. He only mentioned jobs for a brief second in his final TV ad which focused more on his character and alleged Montgomery corruption. He also repeatedly attacked Bentley for not condemning the AEA as if that was the most important issue to primary voters.

Bentley called him out for not fixating on the economy it in his final TV ad, telling Alabamans: "My opponent is attacking me but missing the real battle. We have serious problems in Alabama." He then played up the I-feel-your-pain narrative despite being wealthy enough to partially self-fund his campaign, saying, "I know how hard it is" before stressing his position on the economy.

"I'll fight the federal government. Five-thousand new jobs with tax cuts to businesses that hire," said Bentley.

Though Bentley spent a considerable portion of his time fighting Byrne's attacks and defining himself as an honest broker (he pledged not to take a salary as governor until AL reaches full employment), Byrne's entire candidacy seemed to be wrapped around him fighting the AEA instead of him being the best equipped to create jobs.

Bentley's nomination also cuts against the axiom that voters do not like negative advertising but it works. Byrne and '02 candidate/businessman Tim James (R) attacked each other constantly on air and in the press during the original primary while Bentley focused his message on jobs and, as he did during the runoff, his image as an honest man. Bentley won accolades from his opponents for being a nice and intelligent guy, surely something Byrne regrets as, at the time, he had more to gain in courting Bentley's potential endorsement in the case that the runoff featured Byrne and James, as expected.

Entering the fall election, Bentley faces another underdog-turned-victor in Ag. Commis. Ron Sparks (D), who dispatched Rep. Artur Davis (D) by margins more than twice the size of even his most optimistic staffers. Sparks is a scrapper and willing to go negative, and he did against Davis. Sparks has a signature issue in gambling that he has tied to the economy; Bentley will be defining his own issues over the next few months.

The fall campaign is likely to be a setup of Sparks mixing negative advertising with a positive message as he will start once again as the underdog in a state more receptive toward GOP governors. However, if the primary season has taught observers anything this year in AL, it's that it is best not to count any underdog out until the polls close and the returns arrive.

Four days after Treas. Dean Martin (R) suspended his campaign, NRA board member/firearms training center owner Owen 'Buz' Mills (R) has announced he is suspending his own bid, leaving the GOP race firmly in the hands of Gov. Jan Brewer (R).

Initially, Mills was seen by observers as a potential threat to Brewer because of his personal wealth and ability to advertise on TV. But the momentum Brewer seized after signing SB 1070 made it difficult for either Mills or Martin to gain any traction in the race.

Mills pointed squarely at SB 1070 in announcing the suspension of his campaign. "SB1070 has regrettably taken the focus off of job creation and fixing the state budget," said Mills in a statement. "So even though the chasm between Brewer's policies and mine is dramatic, SB1070 has politically mitigated those issues. I have therefore decided to suspend the campaign."

With Mills out of the picture, the GOP contest is all but decided, with only pol. sci./gov't Ph.D Matthew Jette (R) standing between Brewer and the party nomination. "I welcome Mr. Mills' supporters to join me in continuing the Arizona comeback with a victory in November," Brewer said, responding to the news that Mills was suspending his bid.

It is becoming a tired refrain: Dems want to make the midterm elections a choice between the 2 parties, fearing ugly consequences if voters view the contests as a chance to pass judgement on Pres. Obama's first years in office.

But the sheer volume of the majority's own successes makes it improbable that Dems will succeed in making the midterms a choice on a national level.

Though Dems have complained about being stymied by GOP opposition to their proposals, in truth the majority has accomplished more than any Congress in decades. Dems led the charge to pass a $787B stimulus bill; the Lilly Ledbetter Fair Pay Act; a reform of rules governing credit cards; Cash for Clunkers; several jobs packages; and health care legislation, so sweeping in scope that some members compared it to the Civil Rights Act. Before the Aug. recess, Congress will have confirmed its second Supreme Court justice and will have added financial regulatory reform to its list of achievements.

With all that on the books, it's little wonder voters are focusing their attention on the Dem agenda. After all, Dems actually did something. With no concrete agenda of their own yet, the GOP is a much less inviting target.

In a meeting with Pres. Obama today, 15 senior Senate Dems agreed they will focus solely on job creation, in both legislation and messaging, in the months until Nov's election, senators and sources familiar with the meeting said.

The group, which included the Dem leadership team, talked about focusing on a "simple" jobs message to draw a contrast with GOPers, a person briefed on the meeting said. Dems believe a focus on jobs is best strategy for making the election a choice rather than a referendum on the dominant party, he added.

Dems believe a contrast on economic grounds offers their best chance to overcome a headwind favoring the GOP, sources said. Senators and aides said they intend to tout what they see as the underrated success of measures like last year's stimulus as well as future economic plans, and they agreed to work to coordinate their jobs message.

"We did talk about jobs," said Sen. Mark Pryor (D-AR), who attended. He added the emphasis will be "on jobs, economy. Not just politically, but for the country."

He may not have declared himself a candidate, but WV Gov. Joe Manchin (D) is already the subject of intense research efforts aimed at uncovering information GOPers might use against him.

Manchin is considering whether to run for the late Sen. Robert Byrd's (D) Senate seat in a special election expected some time this year. He has not officially said he would run, but his desire to serve in the Senate has been a poorly-kept secret, and many strategists and observers expect him to enter the race after appointing a temporary successor.

The NRSC has requested a series of documents from Manchin's office under WV Freedom of Information laws. In a letter to Manchin's office, NRSC chief counsel Sean Cairncross asked for correspondence between Manchin's office and the Justice Department and any information relating to Manchin family members who may be employed with the state.

What's more, the NRSC wants to know whether Manchin spoke with anyone at the WH about Byrd's seat. Correspondence between the WH and Senate candidates in CO, PA and IL has proven embarrassing for Pres. Obama's admin, and GOPers are hoping to continue that story line.

The American Action Network, an independent organization aiming to raise and spend millions on behalf of GOP Senate candidates, is making Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA) their second target with a significant new ad buy.

The group, headed by ex-Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) and Rob Collins, a long-time top aide to Rep. Eric Cantor (R-VA), is launching a 30-second spot aimed at convincing voters Murray has lost touch. And the ad uses one of Murray's trademarks -- the tennis shoe -- to do it.

"Oh, Patty. We had such high hopes, that you were different. One of us," a narrator says. "Then, you wore your tennis shoes out on our backs."

Murray first entered politics after a state legislator called her "a mom in tennis shoes" as a derisive dismissal. But she adopted the moniker, won election to the state Senate and then took a leap to the U.S. Senate.

The DNC has begun transfering cash to Dem campaign committees, the first wave of what it says will be a $50M effort to keep control of Congress through a bumpy midterm election campaign.

Both the DCCC and the DSCC will receive $666K, according to a DNC official. The DNC will also send $333K to both the FL and OH Dem Parties, states that have competitive GOV, SEN and House contests this fall.

The $2M total investment is but the first wave of cash the DNC has promised for the midterm fight. DNC chair Tim Kaine said in April the party would raise $20M for direct investments in state parties and national efforts to keep the House and Senate in Dem hands.

The DNC has also said it will spend $30M on get-out-the-vote efforts aimed at turning out voters who cast their first ballots for Pres. Obama in '08. Kaine said there were as many as 15M voters the party could target, including 750K in OH alone. That margin, if Dems succeed in ginning up turnout, could be enough to hand several incumbents another term.

Just how many seats will Dems lose in the House this year? That depends on who is asked, and when they said it, thanks to an expectations game that continues to shift as the political winds worsen.

DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen has tried to manage expectations from the beginning of the cycle, acknowledging the difficulties an incumbent party faces in a midterm election. Early last year, Van Hollen brought in Dems who had dealt with a wave in '94, hoping to learn from, and avoid, similar results.

"It's going to be competitive, but this is not going to be a 1994 redux," Van Hollen told Hotline OnCall last Nov. "We are staying on offense, and that was clearly one of the lessons from 1994. It was more circle the wagons, we're all on defense." On a Monday appearance on "Hardball," Van Hollen demonstrated he's still confident. "Democrats are not going to lose the House. The answer's 'no,'" Van Hollen said.

But as polls have shown an increasingly competitive national landscape, and a growing number of Dems facing tough re-election fights, a '94 redux may be taking shape. This weekend, WH press sec. Robert Gibbs admitted as much in an interview with NBC's "Meet the Press."

The confirmation hearings are over, and senators have begun to make up their minds about Solicitor General Elena Kagan. We're keeping a whip count of Kagan backers and her opponents in advance of this month's floor debate.

A note on methodology: We assume a vast majority -- if not all -- of the Dem caucus will vote to confirm Kagan. But we're going to be sticklers for a firm 'yes' -- or the very strong hint of a 'yes' in an interview.

YES VOTES: 9
Sens. Michael Bennet (report), Dick Durbin (floor speech^, 7/12), Al Franken (interview), Ted Kaufman (floor speech)**, Amy Klobuchar (interview*), Patrick Leahy (statement~), Jeff Merkley (report), Mark Udall (statement), Sheldon Whitehouse (interview^^).

NO VOTES: 9
Sens. Bob Bennett (statement), Jim DeMint (op-ed), Orrin Hatch (statement), Jim Inhofe (statement), Johnny Isakson (statement), Mike Johanns (statement), John McCain (op-ed), Mitch McConnell (statement), Lisa Murkowski (statement).

Updates: Leahy made his comments after we originally published this post. Whitehouse told Friedman he will vote for Kagan's nomination this afternoon. Kaufman said he would support Kagan in a floor speech Tuesday. Merkley will vote for Kagan, TPM's Christina Bellantoni tweeted today. Bennet said Tuesday afternoon he would vote for Kagan.

After the jump, notes on several senators who have made their positions known.

Good Tuesday morning. Today's the All Star Game, when the best of the best get together to jog to first base, trot toward a ball hit their way and generally make half-hearted attempts in a game the National League hasn't won -- get this -- since Bill Clinton was president.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will matter in politics today, in a city in which everyone's an all star in their own minds:

PRES. OBAMA: What's worse than having a low approval rating? Having lost the confidence of your electorate. That's the fate Obama is staring down today, according to a new WaPo/ABC poll. Just 43% say they have a good amount or a great deal of confidence in Obama to make the right decisions for the country's future, while 57% say they do not.

Obama and his team have tried their best to make the midterms a choice election, and that's a smart move: Just 26% say they have confidence in GOPers in Congress to do the right things for the nation, while 73% say no. If Dems allow the contest to become a referendum on Obama's leadership, they'll lose even more seats.

Still, members and top Dem aides are grumbling that the WH doesn't get it: The option to make voters consider both sides of the coin has passed. Dems in Congress, and the Obama admin, have had one of the most successful legislative sessions in decades. It's little wonder that GOPers are fighting back against the Dem agenda, and that voters are going to judge Dems on their success and failure. But the idea of a choice election, when one party has driven the conversation so much, may be unrealistic.

AL VOTERS: Voters in AL head to the polls today to pick a GOP GOV nominee, and the contrasts couldn't be more stark. Ex-state community college chancellor Bradley Byrne (R) finished first in the June 1 primary, but he's allowed himself to be pigeon-holed as a moderate. State Rep. Robert Bentley (R) caught fire in the last few weeks of the primary to win the state's most conservative voters.

Conventional wisdome suggests Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA) is the most vulnerable GOPer in Congress, seeking re-election in a heavily African-American district in which any scandal-free Dem should easily top half the vote. But conventional wisdom has been wrong before, and a new poll for Cao's campaign hopes to prove it wrong again.

Cao led state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) by a 51%-26% margin, according to a survey conducted May 27-June 2 by LA pollster Verne Kennedy. Cao leads Richmond by a 67%-13% margin among white voters, and by a narrower 39%-36% margin among African American voters.

That African American vote will play a decisive factor in the New Orleans-based district. African Americans make up 61% of the voter registration rolls, but recent turnout statistics show African Americans are seriously underrepresented at the polls.

Kennedy writes in a memo to Cao's campaign that he believes turnout among black voters will top out at 57%. Accordingly, 57% of the sample was African American, while 39% was white. Cao's lead comes even as both candidates were identified by party -- meaning voters said they would vote for Cao even though they knew he was a GOPer.

Campaign finance reports are coming fast and furious in advance of Thursday's fundraising deadline. You've already seen ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio's (R) impressive haul. Now, the rest of the reports we've seen today:

AZ 03: Attorney Jon Hulburd (D) raised $250K last quarter. No word on what he has in the bank, but he had $331K on hand in the April 15 report. He'll face the winner of a competitive GOP primary in the race to replace retiring Rep. John Shadegg (R).

CA 11: David Harmer (R), who lost a special election in CA 10 in Nov., raised $402K in the second quarter. Harmer had $233K in the bank after winning a tough primary. He'll face Rep. Jerry McNerney (D) this fall.

CO 04: Rep. Betsy Markey (D) is one of a handful of younger members showing off impressive reports. Markey pulled in $530K last quarter and has about $1.5M in the bank, the Ft. Collins Coloradoan reported.

MN House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) is up with her first TV ad of the campaign. In the 30-second spot, produced by Murphy Putnam and slated to begin airing tomorrow, Kelliher reminds viewers she was endorsed by the DFL and positions herself opposite Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R).

"I fought Gov. Pawlenty and corporate special interests to protect families like yours and mine," says Kelliher in the ad. Kelliher has spent $8.7K and $41.6K for the week on Twin Cities area ABC and CBS affiliate stations, respectively, according to
Minnesota Public Radio's Tom Scheck.

Kelliher is in a competitive Dem primary with atty/ex-state House Min. Leader Matt Entenza (D) and ex-Sen. Mark Dayton (D). Dayton and Entenza have each already gone up with several TV spots of their own.

Entenza's latest ad goes directly after state Rep. Tom Emmer (R), the presumptive GOP nominee. "Meet Sarah Palin's candidate for governor," says the narrator of Entenza's ad. Palin decided to back Emmer on the eve of the state GOP convention, at which Emmer secured the party's backing.

The Senate Judiciary Committee will not vote Tuesday on the nomination of Solicitor General Elena Kagan to the Supreme Court, GOP aides said today.

GOP senators will use the ability of any committee member under the panel's rules to put off a vote for one week, several aides said. They said committee GOPers want more time to review the nomination. Kagan returned written answers to questions for the record submitted by senators on Friday. "The committee will need time to review her responses" said a GOP staffer.

The vote on Kagan cannot be delayed again, meaning the panel will likely advance her nomination on July 20. Senate Dems would then have until Aug. 6 to meet their goal of confirming her before the Aug. recess.

Currently, The Hotline's whip count stands at 2 Dems in favor of Kagan and 9 GOPers opposed. Expect a series of statements in support and opposition to come out this week as Congress returns from a break.

In tomorrow's GOP primary runoff between ex-state Community College chancellor/ex-state Sen Bradley Byrne (R) and state Rep. Robert Bentley (R), Bentley has come from behind to take a lead in the last week according to the latest independent poll, taking advantage in a contest that has become a battle for the most conservative voters in a very conservative state.

Despite the poll results, Byrne's camp has claimed momentum has shifted back toward their champion in the last week.

The bruising pre-runoff primary battle between Byrne and '02 candidate/businessman Tim James (R) appeared to damage Byrne heading into the runoff, and Bentley's surprise second-place showing after running a largely positive campaign gave voters turned off by the attacks between Byrne and James a viable, potentially likeable alternative.

The 2 contenders have spoken largely positively of each other. Byrne lauded Bentley, calling him "probably the smartest man in the race" before the runoff. Bentley returned the favor and said Byrne is "very intelligent" and "has the qualifications to be Governor."

They may insist that they're focused on the '10 midterms, but WH'12 contenders are not so quietly raising their profiles in key states in coming weeks.

Ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich is spending Monday mentoring GOP candidates at a workshop in Des Moines, IA, alongside top aide Joe Gaylord.

Gingrich is also launching a podcast through American Solutions, which he compared to the GOPAC education tapes he created en route to the GOP's successful efforts to win back Congress in '94.

But he won't have IA to himself. Later this month, MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) will ramp up his presence in IA with a 3-day trip aimed at bolstering several candidates' chances in state legislative races. Pawlenty will spend July 31 in Dubuque, Waverly and Cedar Rapids; Aug. 1 in West Liberty, on the eastern part of the state; and Aug. 2 in Davenport.

Ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) announced this afternoon that his campaign raised over $4.5M in the second quarter, a gangbuster haul that sets him up for what's sure to be an expensive general election.

That figure dwarfs Rep. Kendrick Meek's (D) $1M raised in the last 3 months. Gov. Charlie Crist (I) has not announced his own fundraising performance, his first since he switched parties in late April.

Rubio's camp claims that the $4.5M total is a record for a single quarter in FL, breaking a record previously held by Crist. A Rubio spokesperson refused to disclose how much Rubio would report in the bank.

Rubio had nearly $4M on hand at the end of the first quarter, and his camp has been relatively quiet since Crist's switch, airing no TV ads. Meek has about $4M in the bank, as of the end of the second quarter.

Congressional Dems are hoping to use their limited time back in DC to full effect. But while Elena Kagan, reg reform and jobless benefits will dominate the roll call votes, we may hear more about immigration, campaign finance reform and climate change -- issues that aren't going to garner anything close to bipartisan support and are dividing the Dem caucus as well.

-- The goal, if Dems decide to pursue it, is Rove-esque: Turn out the base, fire up donors and core constituencies and pray that some Dems who would be swept out by an overwhelming enthusiasm gap can save themselves.

-- But just ask GOPers how well that strategy worked for them in '06. As the LA Times' Mascaro points out, the then-GOP majority focused on ginning up their base with the American Values Agenda. Despite the fact that voters were mad about government flubs in Iraq and New Orleans, GOPers were talking about same-sex marriage, abortion and the words "under God" in the pledge of allegiance. The GOP base turned out that fall, but indie voters flocked to Dems. And those indie voters were the key to Dems 30 seat pick-up.

-- This year, indies are again siding w/ the out-party. Talking about core Dem issues rather than the economy only makes Dems look out-of-touch. Making the argument that the stimulus bill made a difference is tough, but it's the only way Dems can weather the storm -- and even then, only if they catch some lucky breaks.

The AFL-CIO is launching a major ground operation aimed at influencing their members and saving Dem-held seats come Nov., the major labor group announced on Monday.

AFL-CIO fliers will hit a total of 164 worksites in 23 states, the labor union said. They aim to distribute more than 300K fliers.

"If politicians are fighting for working families then we will work our hearts out for them," said AFL-CIO chief Richard Trumka, in a statement. "If they aren't delivering and think they can take our support for granted then they may be awfully lonely come November."

The fliers are a mix of positive and negative messages. Some will bolster Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid. Others will attack IL state Sen. Bill Brady (R), the GOV nominee, and CA SEN nominee Carly Fiorina (R) (See examples after the jump).

Ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin's political action committee is no joke, according to new reports filed with the FEC: In the last quarter, Sarah PAC raised $865K and spent $654K, demonstrating new evidence that the former VP contender is seriously considering a WH'12 bid.

Palin is best known for reaching her fans via Twitter or Facebook, bypassing traditional media. But the latest reports show she is spending time building a following through more traditional means as well.

Last quarter, Palin spent more than $248K on direct mail fundraising, the bread-and-butter means GOPers have traditionally used to fill their coffers and build lists. Palin spent the bulk of that money with HSP Direct, a Herndon, VA-based firm that conducts mail programs for conservative groups like Citizens United and Americans for Tax Reform.

What's most notable is the number of small contributors Palin has attracted. More than 3/4 of her donations are listed as unitemized, meaning the individuals who wrote checks sent in less than $200. Much of Pres. Obama's fundraising success in '08 came from these small-dollar donors, meaning Palin has a grassroots folllowing -- one she's started to build significantly earlier than Obama did.

Good Monday morning. We feel bad for those of you on Capitol Hill -- after a hard week of recess, it's back to the real world. Have no fear, Aug. is actually closer than you think.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

CONGRESS: That -- Aug. recess being right around the corner -- is actually a major problem for Dems. Over the next 3 weeks, Dems in Congress have to take up Solicitor Gen. Elena Kagan's SCOTUS nomination; final passage of a conference report on financial regulatory reform; jobless benefit extensions; and a host of tax measures to deal with the Bush admin's cuts.

None of that will be easy. Reg reform is likely to pass now that Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA), a "yes" vote the first time, and Sen. Maria Cantwell (D-WA), a "no" vote the first time, have said they'll support the bill. So far, not a single GOPer has said they will support Kagan. And the Senate is trying again on an unemployment extensions bill that's gone through several iterations.

Dems have high hopes that financial regulatory reform, in particular, will be a hit with voters who buy in to the Wall Street versus Main Street narrative. But polls aren't getting any better. What's worse: Dems aren't likely to see movement on a campaign finance bill that would prevent several groups from spending millions, meaning GOPers will have powerful allies willing to dish out cash during the midterms.

PRES. OBAMA: With his Congressional majorities in jeopardy, what's a president to do? Obama's approval ratings are still mired south of the 50% line, the most dangerous place for his allies in Congress. And though Dems have long talked about making the midterm elections a choice, rather than a referendum, the party has already tried that message, on behalf of candidates in NJ, VA and MA.

A top Dem panel has proposed to begin its presidential nominating process a month later than in '08, joining GOPers in aiming to streamline a process that nearly spiraled out of control 2 years ago.

The DNC Rules and Bylaws Committee has proposed kicking off the '12 WH contest with the IA caucuses on Feb. 6. A little more than a week later, NH will be allowed to hold a primary on Feb. 14. NV will reprise their role as an early caucus state on Feb. 18, and SC will become the first Southern state to weigh in, on Feb. 28.

Other states will be allowed to hold their nominating contests beginning with the first Tuesday in March.

The changes are the most significant alteration to the primary calendars since '68, when a DNC commission headed by then-Sen. George McGovern (D-SD) established rules that gave elected delegates the power to pick a party's nominees.

We learned no one returns phone calls during recess. Here's what else we at The Hotline discovered this week:

-- Dems are doing their best to create a narrative that pegs GOPers as the party to blame for current economic woes. Focusing on John Boehner, Joe Barton and Michael Steele at a time when voters are more interested in jobs is a dangerous tactic -- Dems don't want to be seen as out of touch -- but it's their only option. After all, when voters don't agree with your argument, the only chance you have is to change the conversation.

-- Meanwhile, time is running out. Dems have to convince voters of their own positives, and their positive action on the economy, but they face a skeptical electorate that still believes the recovery isn't helping them. Dems have to succeed sooner rather than later -- unless opinions have already hardened. A few GOP pollsters make a compelling case that voter opinions are largely set by June, save a dramatic turn of events.

-- RNC chair Steele has officially weathered the storm over his comments on Afghanistan. But darker clouds remain over the party's fundraising. An RNC meeting just outside DC earlier this year was marked by contentious meetings between RNC staff and members over a limited budget. It's a safe bet next month's meetings in Kansas City will ratchet up the tension.

Your Hotline OnCall editor writes in this week's National Journal:

Democratic strategists want voters to know that House Minority Leader John Boehner of Ohio sees regulatory reform as a nuclear weapon aimed at the ant of Wall Street's financial misdeeds. That Rep. Joe Barton of Texas wants to apologize to BP rather than hold the oil company accountable for the widening environmental disaster in the Gulf of Mexico. And that Republican National Committee Chairman Michael Steele believes that a land war in Afghanistan is the last thing the United States should be involved in. In short, Democrats seem to care an awful lot about the Republicans' minor inside-the-Beltway flare-ups that won't get a lot of attention from swing voters.

It's all part of Democrats' effort to make the election about more than their performance. Given President Obama's lousy approval ratings and polls that show a plurality -- if not a majority -- of voters in the mood to kick the bums out, Democrats have to offer voters a choice.

"With history against them and a recession to boot, [Democrats] would be foolish to nationalize the election," party strategist Paul Begala said. "As David Axelrod keeps telling anyone who will listen, this needs to be a choice, not a referendum. Highlighting Boehner's comments about the economy, and Steele's comments about [Afghanistan], and Barton's apology to BP helps make it a choice by showing voters how the GOP would govern -- and whose side they are on."

What's on the Sunday shows this week:

Meet the Press hosts WH Press Sec. Robert Gibbs, MSNBC's Rachel Maddow, ex-RNC chair Ed Gillespie, New York Times' David Brooks and ex-Rep. Harold Ford Jr.

Face the Nation hosts U.S. AG Eric Holder.

This Week hosts WH sr. adviser David Axelrod, Reps. Luis Gutierrez (D-IL) and Brian Bilbray (R-CA).

Fox News Sunday hosts Israeli PM Benjamin Netanyahu, Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ) and WH sr. adviser David Axelrod.

State of the Union hosts NM Gov. Bill Richardson (D), WH sr. adviser David Axelrod, Rep. Trent Franks (R-AZ) and BP Victim Compensation Fund administrator Kenneth Feinberg.

After the jump, the rest of your viewing guide for the weekend.

Pres. Obama hit the campaign trail yesterday with a new stump speech aimed at creating a clear contrast between Dems and the GOP, signaling what is ostensibly a new chapter in Dem efforts to create a choice election.

But while the speech is new, Obama's message is remarkably similar to one he's pitched before. And while characterizing the '08 election as a choice worked brilliantly for Obama himself, making later contests into choices hasn't worked out so well for Dem candidates.

"You have a choice in this election," Obama said Thursday at a rally for Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid. "There is a real choice here. We know how the movie ends if the other party is in charge. You don't have to guess how they'll govern because we're still living with the damage from the last time they were governing. And they're singing from the same hymnal. They haven't changed. They want to do the same stuff."

Obama has used the same language as he stumps for other Dems across the country -- Dems like ex-NJ Gov. Jon Corzine, VA state Sen. Creigh Deeds and MA AG Martha Coakley, all of whom lost their races in '09 and early '10.

WV Gov. Joe Manchin (D) is reviewing a short roster of politicians as he considers a replacement for the late Sen. Robert Byrd, an appointment Manchin is expected to make shortly. A look at candidates on Manchin's radar, in alphabetical order:

Anne Barth:: Barth was Byrd's state director for years before mounting an unsuccessful bid against Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R) in '08. Byrd even cut a campaign ad for Barth, and she would be intimately familiar with his office's operation.

Gaston Caperton: Caperton served as governor from '89 to '97, and he would serve as the elder statesman during his brief term in the Senate. He lives in NY, but it wouldn't be hard to convince him to come home. Still, some have questioned his relationship with Manchin, which is said to be testy, even though Caperton has been a guest in the governor's mansion.

Nick Casey: An attorney from Charleston, Casey was chairman of the state Dem Party. He's close to Manchin, an important plus. But Casey is hoping for an appointment as a federal judge; he had Byrd's support for a nomination. He is reportedly concerned that a nomination would be scuttled by an appointment.

The confirmation hearings are over, and senators have begun to make up their minds about Solicitor General Elena Kagan. We're keeping a whip count of Kagan backers and her opponents in advance of this month's floor debate.

A note on methodology: We assume a vast majority -- if not all -- of the Dem caucus will vote to confirm Kagan. But we're not going to count anyone until they've made a formal statement in support or said publicly they will vote for her.

YES VOTES: 2
Sens. Al Franken (interview), Mark Udall (statement).

NO VOTES: 9
Sens. Bob Bennett (statement), Jim DeMint (op-ed), Orrin Hatch (statement), Jim Inhofe (statement), Johnny Isakson (statement), Mike Johanns (statement), John McCain (op-ed), Mitch McConnell (statement), Lisa Murkowski (statement).

Update: Udall confirmed he would vote in favor of Kagan on Friday afternoon.

Franklin Co. Commis. Paula Brooks (D) is keeping her GOP rival under 50% in a survey conducted for her campaign, though the internal poll still shows her trailing Rep. Pat Tiberi (R-OH) by a wide margin.

The survey, conducted for Brooks' campaign by Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research, shows Tiberi leading Brooks by a 48%-36% margin. Businessman Travis Irvine (L) pulls 10%.

"While there is a long way to go before Election Day, the tea leaves are clear that Tiberi has a difficult road in front of him as an anti-Washington electorate is clearly looking for a strong alternative to the five-term incumbent," the pollsters wrote. After reading positive information about all 3 candidates, Tiberi's lead shrinks to a single point.

The poll, conducted early last month, comes in response to a survey for Tiberi's campaign that showed the incumbent leading by a 53%-28% margin.

National Journal's Richard E. Cohen writes in this week's magazine:

You wouldn't know it from the overheated partisan rhetoric that gets thrown about these days, but it's possible, just possible, that Congress could get serious about tackling the federal budget deficit.

Although it's far too early to take the savings to the bank -- and failure remains a leading option -- some influential members of Congress seem to have a real commitment to act.

Consider the statements below from two House leaders.

Quote One: "More than ever, Americans understand the danger of debt: a stagnant economy, a hobbled government, and a weak national defense.... There are two clocks: One of them is counting down the time to our debt crisis; the other can wake us up to see our situation as it is, not as we want it to be, or as our ideologies say it should be."

Quote Two: "We need to look at the American people and explain to them that we're broke.... If you have substantial non-Social Security income while you're retired, why are we paying you at a time when we're broke? We just need to be honest with people."

The first quote is from a June 22 speech by House Majority Leader Steny Hoyer, D-Md., to a Democratic think tank. House Minority Leader John Boehner, R-Ohio, made the second statement six days later in an interview with the Pittsburgh Tribune-Review.

Good Friday morning. Could Lebron James' move to Miami be a good thing for the Tea Party? Our colleague Josh Green at The Atlantic thinks so.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will drive the discussion this weekend:

SHARRON ANGLE: And Dems thought KY SEN nominee Rand Paul (R) was a gift of a nominee. Angle started her general election campaign the right way -- keeping her head down, surviving a tough interview with NV political analyst Jon Ralston and retooling her website to take in online money. But this week, the wheels started to wobble.

Angle feuded with Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid over her old website, which Reid's camp re-posted to highlight Angle's policy positions. She fell into the BP "slush fund" trap, which she quickly recognized and tried to walk back. And she's under fire now for suggesting rape victims make lemonade out of lemons.

Angle has to keep the conversation focused on Reid, rather than some of her own controversial views. She's trying to change the conversation, launching a new ad (Check it out below) and taking advantage of Pres. Obama's fundraising trip to NV this week. Angle's biggest problem is one Paul doesn't have: As a former legislator, she's got a record. Reid's using that record in his own new ad (Also below) to take on Angle's record on jobs.

GAY RIGHTS ACTIVISTS: A federal judge has struck down parts of the Defense of Marriage Act, a '96 law that defines marriage as a union between a man and a woman and bans same-sex marriage. That law, said Judge Joseph Tauro, violates the equal protection clause of the Constitution.

The GOP is poised to post a net gain of 5 to 6 Senate seats this Nov., according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

Asked "how many Senate seats will Democrats gain or lose" in the midterms," the average of 100 Dem Insiders who responded to the poll said the party would lose 5 seats, and the average offered up by 103 GOP Insiders was 6. For Dems, the average was the same as it was in March when this question was previously asked. For GOPers, the number actually fell from 7 in March.

Some GOP Insiders expressed concerns that some of their more conservative candidates like NV candidate Sharron Angle (R) and FL candidate Marco Rubio, who had taken out more moderate opponents in primary contests, may not prevail in the general election.

But overall, GOP Insiders were upbeat because there are so many Dem-held seats in the play, unlike a year or even 4 months ago. Even one Dem Insider who forecast a 6-seat loss acknowledged, "Dems have too many seats in play, and more are likely to join."

WV Gov. Joe Manchin (D) may call a special election to fill the late Sen. Robert Byrd's seat as soon as this year, WV's attorney general said in an opinion released this afternoon.

On Wednesday, Manchin asked AG Darrell McGraw (D) for an advisory opinion in light of election law that leaves some doubt as to whether Byrd's seat should be filled by temporary appointment for more than 2 years. A day later, McGraw said the election must take place before '12, when Byrd's term would expire. And that election is likely to be held this year.

"Since a general election is already scheduled for Tuesday, Nov. 2, 2010, it is suggested that a special primary election be held at a time which maximizes the opportunity for all potential candidates to prepare for both the special election and the general election, and for all voters, including those in the Armed Services, to participate and have their voices heard," McGraw wrote, according to the Charleston Daily Mail.

Manchin would have to call a special session of the state legislature to call for a new special election. If the legislature does so, Manchin is a likely candidate for the post; his desire to serve in the Senate is a poorly-kept secret in WV.

Ex-NV Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) handed Dems a new gift today, calling a $20B escrow account set up to pay out victims of the BP oil spill a "slush fund," echoing Rep. Joe Barton's (R-TX) much-ridiculed apology to BP and prompting quick criticism from Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV).

Speaking on the Alan Stock Show, Angle agreed with a caller to the radio program who criticized the BP account. Angle said, "No, government shouldn't be doing that to a private company. And I think you named it clearly -- it's a slush fund."

"Slush fund" was Barton's phrase for the BP account last month, when he apologized for the WH's "shakedown" of BP and caught criticism from Dems and GOPers alike.

Angle called for better federal oversight and criticized BP for cutting corners. She then attacked the Obama admin's response, calling it "an overreaction by government for not the right reasons."

The prospects of a GOP takeover of the House in upcoming midterm elections continue to rise according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll.

Insiders we asked, "On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the House this November?" The average rating from 100 Dem Insiders who responded to the poll this week was 4.5, up from a 3.7 rating when the question was last asked in April. The average rating from the 104 GOP Insiders who responded was a very bullish 6.6, up from 5.8 in April.

Dem Insiders who are more skeptical of the GOP chances generally felt that while their party would lose seats, the GOP still has plenty of hurdles to overcome like coming up with a compelling message and the prevailing anti-incumbent mood that is likely to claim casualties in both parties. Still, as one Dem Insider who only rated the GOP chances at 3-in-10 said, "That may sound low, but I wouldn't want to walk into surgery with those odds."

Dems who were more pessimistic about their chances of holding the House feared that time was running out for the economy to strengthen its recovery and for voters to take notice of that.

The RNC is expected to file a series of amended reports with the FEC this month after an internal review by the treasurer found a number of debts that had not been previously reported.

Sources with knowledge of the RNC's financial situation said the debts will likely amount to hundreds of thousands of dollars. The debts, owed to several vendors, have not been reported yet because top RNC officials have not acknowledged their existence.

"Over the past 3 or 4 months, maybe longer, the staff has been directed to hold off on reporting some debts, to roll them over to the next month, so the month that they're in will look better on the FEC report," said one source involved in the budget process. "It eventually catches up with you."

The roll-overs have concerned RNC Treasurer Randy Pullen, who will head to DC next week for further review of the party's recent filings. Though he doesn't handle day-to-day financial operations for the RNC, Pullen's name is on FEC reports, which means he is liable for any mistakes or omissions.

Pullen discovered the missing debts, which must be reported on documents filed with the FEC, over the last month. RNC chief of staff Mike Leavitt, who had knowledge of the debts, argued that debts didn't exist for FEC purposes until he had acknowledged them. Pullen disagreed, and refused to sign last month's FEC reports until debts were accurately reported, leading to the first RNC debt on an FEC report since Jan. '07.

Dems know who they can count on to run in a WV special election that could be held as soon as this Nov.; Gov. Joe Manchin (D) has made little secret of his desire to serve in the Senate.

But for all their insistence in holding a special election for the late Sen. Robert Byrd's seat this year, GOPers are notably less certain as to who their standard-bearer would be. One thing most party strategists are coming to grips with: It probably won't be Rep. Shelley Moore Capito (R).

Capito is the highest-ranking GOP official in the state, and national party strategists have tried to coax her into a bid for statewide office for years. But now that an open Senate seat has come along, few GOPers believe Capito will give up her House seat to pursue a bid against one of the most popular governors in the nation. And even if she can run for both at the same time, the demands might just be too great.

But, said Kent Gates, Capito's top political advisor, a race certainly isn't something she's ruling out.

Pres. Obama is the best fundraiser the Dem Party has, but his drawing power is way down from its peak during the '08 campaign.

Obama is heading to MO and NV today to raise money for Sec/State Robin Carnahan (D), running for an open Senate seat, and Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid.

But Carnahan's campaign wasn't able to completely sell out the Folly Theater, where Obama will appear for a grassroots event on Carnahan's behalf, at the prices they wanted. Tickets once priced at $250 are now going for $99, while $35 tickets are half off.

The grassroots event at the 1,078-seat theater is expected to net $250K for Carnahan's campaign, the Kansas City Star reported today.

Fundraising reports have been slow to trickle out this month, so we've been saving them for a bigger post. Remember to follow @FECtweets for real-time fundraising reports. Some numbers that have come out in recent days:

OH SEN: Ex-Rep. Rob Portman raised $2.65M in the second quarter, ending with $8.8M in the bank. He's spent money on 2 TV ads so far, and he's expected to maintain his huge financial advantage over LG Lee Fisher (D).

FL SEN: Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) raised $1M in the second quarter and has about $4M in the bank. He faces a tough challenge from billionaire Jeff Greene (D), who has already spent millions on TV ads. Ex-House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) and Gov. Charlie Crist (I) have yet to report their own monthly totals.

CO SEN: LG Jane Norton (R) said Wednesday she had raised more than $900K last quarter, topping the $3M mark. Norton will outspend Weld Co. DA Ken Buck (R), but she trails in polls.

One of the few chances Dems have to contest a GOP-held seat will be a long-shot at best, according to a new survey conducted for Rep. Pat Tiberi's (R-OH) campaign.

The poll, conducted by Public Opinion Strategies, shows Tiberi leading Franklin Co. Commis. Paula Brooks (D) by a 53%-28% margin. Businessman Travis Irvine (L) pulls 5%.

In a memo sent to the Tiberi campaign, pollster Glen Bolger says Tiberi's image remains strong; 54% of voters view him favorably, while 24% see him in an unfavorable light. That's despite $450K in ads Brooks and national Dems have run, trying to soften him up.

"Pat Tiberi has not been affected by the early onslaught of the Democratic establishment and enjoys a solid image and a strong lead on the Congressional ballot test. Tiberi has positioned himself in great shape for another double digit win on Election Day," Bolger wrote.

Ex-Hewlett Packard CEO Carly Fiorina (R) remains well within striking distance of Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA), who is viewed unfavorably by a majority of likely voters, according to a new Field Poll released today.

The poll was conducted June 22-July 5, with Field Research Corp. surveying 1,005 likely voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUP
Boxer    47% (+2 from 3/15)
Fiorina  44  (unchanged)

Just 9% are undecided. Boxer's lead is slightly larger than the 1-point advantage she held in March, but the race remains significantly closer than in Jan., when Boxer sported a 15-point lead.

Likely voters break sharply along partisan lines. Dems go for Boxer, 75%-17%, while GOPers support Fiorina by a slightly more lopsided margin, 83%-10%. Among indies, Boxer leads, 47%-39%.

Good Thursday morning. Today we learn what the future holds for King James, who may be going to Cleveland, Chicago, Miami, New York or whatever other team has the cap space available to handle his mammoth contract. But really, ESPN, it's a contract, not a presidential address. Does LeBron really need the whole hour?

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

BEN BERNANKE: It's been a good week for the Dow, but economists are increasingly troubled at the prospect of a double-dip recession. Now, Federal Reserve officials are talking about taking new action to bolster the economy and avoid a second bottom, the Washington Post reports.

Some Dems want to spend more money to revive the economy, but that's getting less politically palatable. GOPers have never been with Dems, voting en masse against the stimulus and standing together against various jobs packages. And with voters increasingly citing spending as their top concern, a number of Blue Dogs are joining the GOP ranks, making life harder for House and Senate leaders.

A double dip recession, if it takes full effect before the midterms, could virtually assure a GOP majority in the House (The Senate still poses a bigger challenge, given the difficulty of winning several very blue states). What's more, a second bottom would seriously impact Pres. Obama's chances at another term; it's one thing to argue his policies take longer than a year to reverse the entire economy, but it's another altogether if the economy tanks even after so much of the stimulus bill has been spent.

PRES. OBAMA: But Obama is doing what he can to keep Dems in power, making 2 more stops on the campaign trail today. Obama will host 2 fundraisers in Kansas City for MO Sec/State Robin Carnahan (D), one of the Dems best positioned, but still with a tough road ahead, to win a GOP-held Senate seat. Tonight, he heads to Las Vegas for 2 more events with Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid.

Recent polling data from a GOP group suggest that Dems face an uphill battle in selling voters on their arguments over the country's health care, energy and fiscal challenges leading up to the Nov. elections.

Resurgent Republic, a 501(c)(4) group headed by ex-RNC Chair Ed Gillespie, GOP pollster Whit Ayers and GOP consultant Leslie Sanchez, is highlighting a poll they commissioned that tests messages on a number of policy proposals and finds widespread support for the GOP message on various aspects of those 3 issues.

Dems' best issue was education, which is far below the radar for most voters and a much lower priority than the issues on which the GOP is claiming an advantage, according to non-partisan polling data.

The results echo those from a NPR survey last month conducted in 70 battleground districts that showed more voters aligning themselves with the GOP's arguments.

After 2 weeks avoiding the media, Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) this morning addressed the resignation of Brent Furer, the former aide who assaulted his girlfriend in '08.

Vitter was in LA filing for re-election, as was his opponent Rep. Charlie Melancon (D). Exiting the LA Sec/State's office, Vitter was greeted by a gaggle of reporters eager to hear from the senator, who has repeatedly canceled public events and has not spoken to the press since the Furer news broke. Today, Vitter shrugged off Furer as old news, and cast blame on the Melancon campaign for digging into the issue, calling the Dem's campaign desperate.

"The fact that Charlie is so focused on, in the latter case, an ex-employee, something that happened two years ago, I think, just shows how weak a position he's in," Vitter said. "I think it's going to absolutely come across that way to the voters."

Vitter said Furer didn't work on women's issues, as ABC News first reported. But Vitter spokesperson Joel DiGrado said 2 weeks ago that Furer dealt with abortion, which is widely viewed as a women's issue, and several legislative guides and non-profits list Furer as Vitter's women's issues liaison.

The confirmation hearings are over, and senators have begun to make up their minds about Solicitor General Elena Kagan. We're keeping a whip count of Kagan backers and her opponents in advance of this month's floor debate.

A note on methodology: We assume a vast majority -- if not all -- of the Dem caucus will vote to confirm Kagan. But we're not going to count anyone until they've made a formal statement in support or said publicly they will vote for her.

YES VOTES: 1
Sen. Al Franken (interview).

NO VOTES: 8
Sens. Bob Bennett (statement), Jim DeMint (op-ed), Orrin Hatch (statement), Jim Inhofe (statement), Johnny Isakson (statement), John McCain (op-ed), Mitch McConnell (statement), Lisa Murkowski (statement).

Responding to a series of negative ads from Sen. John McCain (R), ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) has released the first TV ad of his own in the race, in which the former congressman's wife defends his credentials and takes McCain to task for negative campaigning.

The 30-second ad, which was produced by The Strategy Group for Media, features Hayworth's wife, Mary Hayworth. "Tired of John McCain's negative ads? So am I," says Mary Hayworth in the ad. She assails McCain for "character assassination," and says McCain "should be ashamed."

McCain spokesperson Brian Rogers countered by saying the size of the ad buy was just $2,100, and the ad will only run on Fox News in Tucson for the entire month of July.

"Far from being a 'principled conservative' as his new ad claims, Congressman Hayworth has time and again thrown the principles of fiscal conservatism out the window for political gain and personal profit," Rogers added. Hayworth spokesperson Mark Sanders disputed Rogers's claim about the ad buy, saying the buy was statewide, though he declined to provide an exact dollar figure.

Senate Min. Leader Mitch McConnell will appoint Rep. John Boozman (R-AR) to the Senate Agriculture Committee if Boozman is elected, the Senate GOP leader said during a campaign stop in Little Rock.

In promising Boozman the seat, McConnell could blunt one of Sen. Blanche Lincoln's (D) main arguments for re-election -- that her position as chair of the committee gives her the power to deliver for her state.

"John will be on the Agriculture Committee on day one when we make the committee assignments. I have the ability to put him on the Agriculture Committee, and I'm going to do that," McConnell said, according to the Arkansas News Bureau.

Lincoln has used her seniority as a key reason for voters to trust her with 6 more years in office. Lincoln is the first AR senator to hold the powerful post. But now, Boozman can say he has a guaranteed spot, albeit at a more junior level, on the same panel.

Farmer and gospel singer Stephen Fincher (R) leads a competitive GOP primary even after being vastly outspent on TV, according to a new survey conducted for Fincher's campaign.

The survey, conducted by The Tarrance Group, shows Fincher leading with 32% of the vote. That proportion bests physician Ron Kirkland (R), who clocks in at 23%, and Shelby Co. Commis. George Flinn (R), who earns 21%. Still, 22% of voters remain undecided.

Fincher's 9-point lead shows a far tighter race than an earlier survey [pdf] conducted for his campaign. In the April 5-6 survey, Fincher led with 40%, compared with 17% for Kirkland and 7% for Flinn.

Fincher is a favorite of the national GOP, and Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), the GOP's recruiting chairman, in particular. Fincher has been named a "Young Gun," the top level of the NRCC's recruiting ladder, and he's received contributions from several top members of the GOP Conference.

WV Gov. Joe Manchin (D) will not appoint a replacement for the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D) until the state's attorney general issues a legal opinion that could force a special election as soon as this year.

In a press conference today, Manchin again ruled out appointing himself to Byrd's unexpired term. What's more, he said, he does not believe it is appropriate to appoint a caretaker senator for 2 1/2 years, and that WV voters deserve the chance to pick their elected representative before the '12 elections.

"For me to believe that I could assume that you would assume that you would give that to me and even take it from you ... I can't do it," Manchin said.

Manchin will ask AG Darrell McGraw (D) to issue an advisory opinion about opaque laws that seem to permit the governor to appoint a replacement who would not face voters until the '12 elections. Manchin, Sec/State Natalie Tennant (D) and legislative leaders have all said they support holding an election well before the expiration of Byrd's term.

Hotline editor Amy Walter writes:

For months now, the alarm bells have been sounding for President Obama. First there was the drop in support among independents. Then his precipitous drop in support among white voters. Now comes the predictable news that Wall Street donors, sick of being used as political punching bags, are no longer lavishing campaign funds on Democrats.

But while these developments should be worrisome to the White House, they should be downright terrifying to congressional Democrats. Obama has time to right himself. For congressional Democrats, time has almost run out.

...

Obama's struggle among white voters has also gotten plenty of ink lately. Still, it'll be felt most acutely and immediately by House Democrats. Only a handful of the 66 most vulnerable Democratic-held seats as rated by the Cook Political Report have significant minority populations. For example, three of the most vulnerable freshman Democrats -- Kathy Dahlkemper (Pa.-03), John Boccieri (Ohio-16) and Mark Schauer (Mich.-07) -- sit in districts that range between 87 percent and 93 percent white.

Moreover, the percentage of white voters tends to increase in midterm elections. That's not always a problem for Democrats. In '06, for example, while white voters made up 79 percent of the electorate, Democrats won 47 percent of the white vote. That year, many Democrats won in rural and overwhelmingly white districts. Think Zack Space in Ohio-18, Heath Shuler in N.C.-11, and Christopher Carney in Pa.-10.

This year, however, the white vote is breaking overwhelmingly toward the GOP. The most recent Gallup generic ballot shows white voters giving Democrats just 38 percent of the vote. That's not just an Obama problem, that's a Democratic problem.

...

With just over four months left until Election Day, there's plenty of time for something big to happen that will change the current trajectory. But the emphasis should be on the word "big." A simple change in tone or an uptick in trend lines ain't gonna do it.

Read the full column here.

The race for CA GOV is a virtual dead heat, with AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D) leading ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman (R) by the slimmest of margins, according to a new Field Poll released today.

The poll was conducted June 22-July 5, with Field Research Corp. surveying 1,005 likely voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.1%.

GENERAL ELECTION MATCHUP
Brown    44% (+1 from 3/15)
Whitman  43  (-3)

The gender gap is alive and well in the Golden State. Among men, Whitman leads, 46%-42%. But among women, Brown racks up a 45%-41% advantage. Fully 13% of likely voters are undecided.

Good Wednesday morning. Remember when this World Cup was a South American affair? So much for that: The Dutch guaranteed yesterday that the final will be an all-European match, once Spain and Germany decide their contest today.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics today:

PRES. OBAMA: Obama keeps up his push today to define the economy in his terms, but it's getting hard to do so when news is uniformally bad. Even when the unemployment rate goes down, as it did last month, it's for a bad reason: Hundreds of thousands of workers left the job market.

Obama will deliver remarks in the East Room this morning on jobs and the economy, and it's an issue Dems need to own if they're going to stem their losses this year. Then again, they'll have to redefine the admin's signature initiative; polls show voters still don't believe the stimulus package has worked, and that they disapprove of the job Obama has done managing the economy.

Talk of a double-dip recession doesn't help, and that buzz is only growing louder, thanks to Greek debt, a weak Euro and a housing market bent on falling flat yet again. But if the economy does dip a second time, we're not just talking about House Dems being in trouble in the midterms, we're talking about Obama's own re-election chances endangered next year. If the WH has a secret plan to turn things around, now's the time to unveil it.

INCUMBENTS: Here's a concrete example of just how unpopular DC is these days: Both Reps. Brad Ellsworth (D-IN) and Roy Blunt (R-MO), running for open Senate seats, launched new ads yesterday. Ellsworth reminded voters of his tenure as a sheriff. Blunt talked up his time as a teacher. Neither mentioned their current jobs.

AZ Dems facing tough re-election fights this year are unhappy with a lawsuit the Justice Department filed today aimed at scrapping the state's harsh new anti-immigration law.

"This lawsuit is a sideshow, distracting us from the real task at hand. A court battle between the federal government and Arizona will not move us closer to securing the border or fixing America's broken immigration system. The legal fights and boycotts are drawing focus and attention away from what has to be a policy-driven, substantive debate," said Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ), a freshman. "Washington failed us on this issue again today, and Arizonans have had enough."

Rep. Harry Mitchell (D-AZ), a second-term Dem from the Phoenix suburbs, said he was "extremely disappointed" the lawsuit has been filed.

"This is the wrong direction to go," Mitchell said. "The only thing this lawsuit will do is demonstrate to Arizonans that Washington still doesn't get it."

Staying in step with a major theme of his general election campaign so far, Rep. Brad Ellsworth (D-08) released his first TV ad today, in which he reminds voters of his work as a sheriff, and aims to distance himself from DC.

"One thing that 25 years as a sheriff teaches you is zero tolerance for bull," Ellsworth says in the 30-second spot. "There's too much at stake. But out in Washington it's like they live and breathe the stuff."

Both Ellsworth and his GOP opponent, ex-Sen. Dan Coats (R) have been actively pushing back against charges that they are DC insiders, even as Coats is a former senator and lobbyist and Ellsworth is a current member of Congress.

Ellsworth's first ad, "At Stake":

AL 02: Montgomery city coincillor Martha Roby (R) raised $100K between May 13 and June 23 in advance of her runoff election, leaving her with $112K in the bank. She faces businessman Rick Barber (R), who had $25K left over. The winner of the July 13 runoff will face Rep. Bobby Bright (D), who through June 23 had $648K in the bank.

AL 07: Attorney Terri Sewell (D) raised $300K between May 13 and June 23 for her runoff bid against Jefferson Co. Commis. Shelia Smoot (D). Smoot raised $36K in the same period. Sewell has about $100K in the bank, while Smoot has $13K left in advance of the July 13 runoff.

LA 03: Ex-state House Speaker Hunt Downer (R) has raised $275K since getting in the race 5 weeks ago, his campaign will announce today. Downer has $245K in the bank for his race to replace outgoing Rep. Charlie Melancon (D).

MA 10: Norfolk Co. DA William Keating (D) raised $380K in the last quarter, bringing his total to $500K raised. State Sen. Robert O'Leary (D) pulled in $200K. State Rep. Jeff Perry (R) said he raised $359K in the race to replace retiring Rep. Bill Delahunt (D).

WH senior advisor David Axelrod is the latest Obama admin figure to schedule a stop in IL for Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D). Axelrod will headline a fundraiser for the IL SEN candidate 7/25.

He's at least the fourth major admin figure to headline an event for Giannoulias. VP Joe Biden, WH dep. CoS Jim Messina, Obama '08 mgr David Plouffe and Educ. Sec. Arne Duncan have all raised money on Giannoulias's behalf, though the Dem is still struggling to keep pace with Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) torrid fundraising pace.

In an effort to move on from a difficult month, Kirk announced last week that he raised $2.3M in the second quarter, and now has $3.9M CoH. Giannoulias' camp has not announced his second quarter fundraising figures yet, though he is not expected to match Kirk's total.

Hoping to capitalize on the media blackout on the holiday weekend, Giannoulias' camp released his income tax returns last Friday, which showed that the ex-banker paid neither federal nor state taxes in '09. In fact, Giannoulias received a $30K tax return, which he promised to give to charity.

Top GOP strategists are plotting ways to force WV to hold a special election this year, in hopes of giving the party a better chance to pick off the seat of the late Sen. Robert Byrd (D-WV), according to several party sources.

The RNC and the WV GOP are exploring ways to bring a lawsuit that would force the Mountaineer State to hold an election earlier than planned, the sources said. That could be the best option for the GOP, which believes it can win Byrd's seat in this favorable political climate.

But it will involve compelling the state to actually hold the contest. WV Sec/State Natalie Tennant (D) said last week that Gov. Joe Manchin's (D) eventual appointee would be able to serve until the '12 elections. And election law precedent appears to be on Tennant's side, given a WV Supreme Court decision from '94.

The RNC has already transfered money to the state GOP, according to a committee source.

Dems are pouncing on ex-Rep. Rob Portman's new TV ad out today.

"There's a new energy tax coming our way from Washington that's a job-killer for Ohio called cap and trade," Portman says in the ad. He tells voters that it could cost the state 100,000 more jobs.

But to Democrats, that's a flip-flop. Portman authored a weekly column as a House member, and on April 19, '96, he entitled one entry, "Protecting The Environment Into The Next Century."

The line buried in the column that made Dem operatives giddy reads: "Private sector incentives, such as permitting companies to trade discharge outputs, can both reduce pollution and costs. If we can harness the power of market incentives, we'll do more with less."

Ohio Dem Party spokeswoman Haley Morris said, "Cong. Portman is running from the 20 years he spent in Washington pushing trade policies that outsourced Ohio jobs. Just like the Big Bank Bailout, Congressman Portman was for Cap and Trade before he was against it. The only thing Ohioans learn about Congressman Portman from this ad is that his positions go whichever way the wind blows."

The confirmation hearings are over, and senators have begun to make up their minds about Solicitor General Elena Kagan. We're keeping a whip count of Kagan backers and her opponents in advance of this month's floor debate.

A note on methodology: We assume a vast majority -- if not all -- of the Dem caucus will vote to confirm Kagan. But we're not going to count anyone until they've made a formal statement in support or said publicly they will vote for her.

YES VOTES: 1
Sen. Al Franken (interview).

NO VOTES: 6
Sens. Mitch McConnell (statement), Orrin Hatch (statement), Bob Bennett (statement), Jim Inhofe (statement), Lisa Murkowski (statement) and Jim DeMint (op-ed).

Update: Franken said in an interview out late today he will back Kagan.

RNC chair Michael Steele spent the holiday weekend calling fellow committee members and GOP opinion leaders in an effort to walk back remarks he made last week suggesting the war in Afghanistan is a losing cause. He has been mostly successful in saving his own job, but one thing is becoming clear even to some of Steele's closest allies: The chances of a second term atop the RNC have waned dramatically.

GOPers outside the RNC have been buzzing nervously behind the scenes for months, speculating as to how to ease Steele out of his current post. Steele's rivals, mostly the arch conservatives on the RNC, have been quietly plotting bids against him. But now, some influential members of the 168 are beginning to jockey for position.

Steele's future will be clear shortly after the midterm elections, when his advisors quickly canvass RNC members as to their intentions in the Jan. '11 RNC elections. If it becomes clear Steele has a well of support, he is likely to try for a second term. If voters are reluctant, Steele may not take a shot at running a race he won't be able to win.

After the jump, a look at some potential candidates to lead the RNC when Election Day rolls around next Jan.:

Rep. Roy Blunt (R-MO) is launching the first ad of his MO SEN bid, but it's aimed more at boosting his own numbers than at taking on his likely Dem rival.

In the spot, Blunt highlights his history as a school teacher and university president before warning about runaway government spending.

"I was taught there was nothing you couldn't achieve through education and hard work. But now, that America is threatened," Blunt says in the ad. "Irresponsible spending and crippling debt are killing jobs today, and our children's future tomorrow."

Blunt faces a handful of lesser-known GOP candidates in the Aug. 3 primary. The most prominent, state Sen. Chuck Purgason (R), has ambushed Blunt over his long career in DC, courted the Tea Party and launched radio ads comparing himself to Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) in NV. Angle easily defeated a GOP establishment-favored candidate in her own primary last month.

Good Tuesday morning. Here's hoping your long holiday weekend was as fun and relaxing as ours. Now, back to the grind.

Here's today's Starting Lineup, previewing the people who will make a difference in politics this recess week:

BENJAMIN NETANYAHU: After a series of cancellations, the Israeli prime minister will finally sit down with Pres. Obama at the WH today. Netanyahu and Obama are expected to discuss the Middle East peace process, Israeli settlements, the ongoing blockade of the Gaza Strip and Iran, among other contentious topics.

Part of Netanyahu's visit will be to present a list of concessions Israel has made of late -- allowing more materials and goods to enter Gaza, as a start. The admin has dubbed the embargo "unsustainable," and WH officials said last week they would push to allow more goods through the borders. Israel has started bending to that international pressure.

Obama has tried to push peace in the Middle East, but progress has been slow going; the Israelis and Palestinians are still only talking through mediators George Mitchell and Tony Blair. That won't change, Palestinian PM Mahmoud Abbas has said, until Israel stops building settlements in the West Bank.

AG ERIC HOLDER: The Justice Department will file suit against AZ in order to prevent a controversial new immigration law from taking effect, DoJ officials told the Washington Post yesterday. It's been an open secret since last month, when Sec/State Hillary Clinton inadvertently told a TV station in Ecuador.

Prominent GOP senators stopped short of calling on RNC chair Michael Steele to resign on Sunday, making Steele allies breathe a sigh of relief after several days of tension.

Sens. John McCain (R-AZ) and Lindsey Graham (R-SC), appearing on Sunday news programs, both chastised Steele for comments he made last week, in which he seemed to question the U.S.'s ability to win the war in Afghanistan.

"If he's such a student of history has he not understood that, you know, that's the one thing you don't do is engage in a land war in Afghanistan? Because everyone who's tried, over a thousand years of history has failed," Steele said of Pres. Obama at an RNC fundraiser on Thursday night.

Several prominent conservatives said the comments were the last straw in a history of gaffes Steele has made over his tenure. Weekly Standard editor Bill Kristol, Liz Cheney and Rep. Tom Cole (R-OK) all said Steele should step down.

This week, we said goodbye to Maura O'Brien, the brilliance behind The Hotline's Wake-Up Call and Last Call. We'll miss her wit, and we wish her the best as she moves on.

Here's what else we learned this week:

-- House Min. Leader John Boehner picked a fight with the WH this week, comparing financial regulatory reform to a nuclear weapon and an ant hill. It's not a fight GOPers want to have, but Boehner has responded in a way other GOPers haven't: He's fought back. Coming the same week some GOPers raised questions about Boehner's work ethic, a spat with Pres. Obama is a good thing for Boehner.

-- RNC chair Michael Steele stepped in it again on Friday when video showed him questioning the wisdom of the war in Afghanistan and calling it Obama's war -- a position directly at odds with his entire party, and one of demonstrable historical inaccuracy. It's a significant gaffe; Weekly Standard's Bill Kristol has called for Steele's resignation, and some RNC members are angry. But if we've learned anything about Steele, it's that he isn't going anywhere of his own volition.

Tomorrow in Rotterdam, perhaps our favorite sporting event -- the Tour de France -- kicks off with an 8 km prologue stage. We've turned to several politicos who will be glued to their TVs for the next 3 weeks to make their predictions and explain how cycling relates to politics.

For the uninitiated, we've asked John Foster, campaign manager to Rep. Walt Minnick (D-ID) and a former semi-pro racer, to make a few parallels. Here's his take:

THE OVERSIGHT:

-- Union Cycliste Internationale = Federal Elections Commission. Oversight body more focused on random limits and obscure rules (weight limits for bikes, contribution limits for campaigns) but seemingly unable to tackle the real issues (doping, illegal campaign coordination.)

THE TEAMS:

-- Radio Shack = NRSC. All the talent, all the money, all the potential. But rocked by serious problems right before the serious work is about to start.

-- Astana = DCCC. A couple of great years, but lots of upheaval and uncertainty headed into the big event. Still have the best top players, but can their lieutenants step up?

Meet the Press will not air this Sunday due to Wimbledon.

Face the Nation hosts Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC), New York Times' Peter Baker, CBS' Jan Crawford and Washington Post's Anne Kornblut.

This Week hosts Sen. John McCain (R-AZ), New York Times' Paul Krugman, Council on Foreign Relations' Dan Senor, Bloomberg's Al Hunt and Atlanta Journal-Constitution's Cynthia Tucker.