Ayotte's Unfavorable Ratings Rising In UNH Poll
Rep. Paul Hodes (D) trails both ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R) and businessman Bill Binnie (R) in the race to succeed retiring Sen. Judd Gregg (R-NH), according to a new poll released today, though there are indications the race may be tightening.
The Granite State Poll, conducted by the UNH Survey Center, shows Ayotte leading Hodes among likely voters, 45-37%. Binnie leads Hodes by a smaller margin, 41-38%.
While Hodes still finds himself behind the two leading GOP candidates, he has cut Ayotte's lead nearly in half over the past few months. In an April Granite State Poll, Ayotte led Hodes by 15 points.
The poll represents the fourth public poll this week to show encouraging news for Senate Dems, after automated polls showed leads for Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid in NV and Treas. Alexi Giannoulias in IL. Another automated survey taken by a Dem pollster over the weekend and released Tuesday showed Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) leading her race by a larger margin than recent polling has indicated.
During the past three months, Ayotte's candidacy has taken a hit. While opinions of Hodes are stagnant since April, Ayotte's unfavorable rating has doubled over that time period. The rise in her disapproval ratings coincide with Sarah Palin's endorsement of her candidacy, a move that boosted her stature in the primary but likely cost her support with non-conservative voters.
Ayotte is now viewed favorably by 38% of likely voters, while 28% have an unfavorable opinion of her. In April, that split stood at 39%/14%.
Hodes, however, has done little to increase voters' opinions of him. Equal amounts of likely voters -- 33% -- view him favorably and unfavorably. In April, his rating stood at 32%/32% among likely voters.
Binnie is viewed favorably by 24% of likely voters, while 19% have an unfavorable impression of him.
In a general election matchup, Ayotte beats Hodes by winning independent voters. Among those not registered with either party, Ayotte leads Hodes, 41-33%.
Ayotte dominated Hodes among male voters, 49%-33%, while the two split the female vote, with 41% apiece.
The matchup with Binnie is closer; Binnie also runs strong among males (45-33%), but he cannot attract the female support that Ayotte does, losing them to Hodes, 42-36%.
Hodes holds modest leads over businessman Jim Bender (R) and '96 GOV nominee/atty/ex-NH Board of Ed. chair Ovide Lamontagne (R), leading Bender by three points and Lamontagne by six. But in those matchups, Hodes never earns more than 42% of the vote.
Just 15% of likely voters have definitely decided for whom they will vote, while 19% say their are leaning toward a candidate and 66% say they are still trying to decide. GOPers are less likely to be certain of their vote, with just 9% of registered GOPers saying they have definitely decided on a candidate. Still, 54% of registered Dems said they are still trying to decide for whom to vote.
The poll, sponsored by WMUR-TV, was conducted July 19-27. UNH surveyed 453 likely voters, for a margin of error of +/- 4.6%.
Would have confirmed Sotomayor, did not prosecute voter fraued and many other things.. she's really not up for this job.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=xAANwL5A884
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