DCCC 's Working Class Defense
The DCCC announced ad buys in 60 districts in the past week, including in 54 seats they currently hold. Where their buys occur follows the pattern identified by National Journal's Ronald Brownstein in "The Four Quadrants of Congress": the lower the level of diversity and white education in a district, the more likely the seat is to lean Republican.
Many of these ads will likely air during NASCAR races: of the 54 seats the DCCC is spending on, fully 29 are in districts where whites make up 70% or more of the district's population and the percentage of whites with bachelor's degrees is below the national average of 30.4%. The DCCC is nervous enough to buy ad time in nearly half of these "NASCAR districts" that they hold: 29 of 66 seats.
Most of these vulnerable Dems are freshmen and sophomores like Reps. Perriello (D-VA), Schauer (D-MI) and Space (D-OH); many others are seats held by long-serving, culturally conservative Dems like Reps. Stupak (D-MI), Kanjorski (D-PA) and Skelton (D-MO). The already-high number of vulnerable low-education, heavily-white Dem districts excludes two Dem-held open seats House Race Hotline editor Tim Sahd ranks as among the most likely to flip, and where Democrats have presumably thrown in the towel: retiring Rep. Bart Gordon's (D-TN) seat and ex-Rep. Eric Massa's (D-NY) old seat.
These low-education, low-minority districts already tilt Republican, with the GOP holding 89 of 155 seats. If they are going to get the wave election they're hoping for, they'll need to make plenty of splashes here.
Conversely, Dems are feeling pretty confident in districts where at least three in ten people are nonwhite and where more whites have at least a bachelor's degree than the national average. The DCCC bought TV time in just five of these districts. Dems already hold 83 of the 113 high-minority, high-education seats. The DCCC's few offensive opportunities are in districts with many minorities (Mario Diaz-Balart's seat in FL-25, Castle's seat in DE), many educated whites (Kirk's seat in IL-10), or a combination of the two (Djou in HI-01, Cao in LA-02).
Democrats are playing defense in less-educated, whiter districts because those voters were the least likely to support Pres. Obama in the 2008 elections: 58% supported McCain. They're also the most overtly hostile towards his economic policies. According to a recent Society for Human Resource Management/National Journal Congressional Connection Poll, just 37% of non-college whites thought Obama's economic policies would do more to improve conditions over the next few years than those of ex-Pres. George W. Bush, while 41% of college-educated whites and 66% of nonwhites prefer Obama's policies (20% of both college- and non-college whites and 7% of nonwhites said neither would help).
It's too early to write off all Dems in these less educated, low-minority districts, as Rep. Critz's (D-PA) special-election victory in May showed. Still, many of these Dems, especially those who voted with their party on the big bills, might want to kick their engines into high gear this August, and motor as far away from Obama as possible.
THE FULL LIST (below the jump):
High Minority - High Education: 5 seats (of 83 held by Dems)
Connolly (VA), Rodriguez (TX), Foster (IL), McNerney (CA), Nye (VA)
High Minority - Low Education: 9 seats (of 62 held by Dems)
Teague (NM), Driehaus (OH), Titus (NV), Chet Edwards (TX), Kirkpatrick (AZ), Bright (AL), Kissell (NC), Spratt (SC), Childers (MS)
Low Minority - High Education: 11 seats (of 45 held by Dems)
Moore (KS), Mitchell (AZ), Sestak (PA), Delahunt (MA), Giffords (AZ), Kilroy (OH), Betsy Markey (CO), Shea-Porter (NH), Hodes (NH), Kratovil (MD), Schrader (OR)
Low Minority - Low Education: 29 seats (of 66 held by Dems)
Boswell (IA), Sutton (OH), Snyder (AR), Boyd (FL), Kosmas (FL), Pomeroy (ND), Herseth Sandlin (SD), Perriello (VA), Baird (WA), Arcuri (NY), Halvorson (IL), Schauer (MI), Kagen (WI), Boccieri (OH), Dahlkemper (PA), Donnelly (IN), Carney (PA), Obey (WI), Hill (IN), Kanjorski (PA), Stupak (MI), Owens (NY), Mollohan (WV), Ellsworth (IN), Skelton (MO), Critz (PA), Tanner (TN), Berry (AR), Space (OH)