Dems Aren't Disclosing Early Polls
Amid a troubled political environment, nearly 2 dozen House Dems commissioned polls over the last 3 months, according to reports filed with the FEC. But those polls weren't made public, leaving some GOPers to believe incumbents are beginning to run scared.
The members who conducted polling are among the GOP's top targets this year. Reps. Mark Schauer (D-MI), Earl Pomeroy (D-ND), Chet Edwards (R-TX), Ike Skelton (D-MO), Rick Boucher (D-VA) and Chris Carney (D-PA) were among those who paid for polling.
The campaigns involved largely refused to discuss their internal polling, citing policies against revealing internal strategy. Megan Jacobs, a spokesperson for Edwards' campaign, pointed to a strategy memo arguing Edwards' campaign is far ahead, but the memo doesn't cite poll numbers.
Spokespeople for Schauer, Pomeroy, Skelton, Boucher and Carney, along with a dozen other members of Congress, did not return calls or emails seeking comment about their surveys.
But members and candidates will frequently release polls when doing so would help boost fundraising or drive a favorable narrative about their race. As rumors fly almost daily about another internal survey that shows an incumbent in tenuous position, Dems leaving some surveys unreported makes GOPers believe those polls show bad news.
In some cases, polls may have actually spurred action. Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ) spent $30K on a poll in April and another $29K on a poll in early June; also in June, Giffords launched her campaign's first ads, spending more than $70K on media that month.
Giffords spokesperson Anne Hilby said the campaign doesn't discuss strategy, but, she added: "The only thing you should infer from our having done polling and advertising is that it is election season."
Rep. Joe Donnelly (D-IN) paid $12K for a poll in May, just after his state's primary. Donnelly faces state Rep. Jackie Walorski (R), who GOPers increasingly believe has a strong chance to win the seat. Donnelly waited 2 months, but he hit the airwaves this week with a new spot portraying himself as "not like the others" in DC.
It's not only Dems who haven't released their surveys. While Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH) spent $30K on a survey conducted by Benenson Strategy Group, her main rival, state Sen. Steve Stivers (R) spent almost $20K on his own poll, conducted by The Tarrance Group. Neither poll has been released to the media, and Kilroy spokesman Brad Bauman refused to release results to Hotline OnCall.
In truth, incumbents don't always release polls even if they're way ahead. Reps. John Yarmuth (D-KY), Rick Larsen (D-WA), David Wu (D-OR) and Loretta Sanchez (D-CA) all conducted polls last quarter, and while Larsen will face a repeat challenge from Snohomish Co. Councilmember John Koster (R), who he beat 50%-46% in '00, the other 3 are unlikely to find themselves atop the NRCC's target list this year.
Meanwhile, both party committees are keeping their own surveys close to the vest. The DCCC spent thousands on polls at 4 major Dem polling firms last month -- The Mellman Group, Peter D. Hart Research, Benenson and Greenberg Quinlan Rosner Research. The NRCC spent thousands at Public Opinion Strategies and The Tarrance Group, reports show.
Think Again Larsen, Yarmuth, Wu, and Sanchez all face excellent Republican candidates
I live in Oregon and attended the town halls that David Wu was at. Eventhough an overwhelming number of people told him not to vote for the government takeover of health care, he did it anyways. I dont think I will vote for him this time.
Majority Maker: CT-04
Jim Himes is another Democrat incumbent who commissioned polls over the last 3 months but is keeping the results secret.
The fourth district of Connecticut is in play in 2010. The district was the last New England district to have a Republican representative. In 2008, Democrat Jim Himes was able to squeak by incumbent Republican Chris Shays in large part due to a surge in newly registered Democrat voters in Bridgeport who turned out to support Barack Obama. If historical voting patterns return in 2010, then Himes will be in trouble.
Himes is a vulnerable incumbent who has not earned re-election. The Cook Political Report lists incumbents by risk factors from zero to five. According to Cook, “even Democrats with just three risk factors could find themselves in serious political risk in 2010”. Himes has five risk factors – he supported the unpopular cap and trade bill, he supported Obamacare, his district leans Democrat only slightly, his opponent has over $200 k in cash, and he received under 55% in his last election (in fact, only 51%).
Debicella is a worthy candidate who could benefit from a strong year for Republican challengers. If 2010 is a normal election year, Himes could be in trouble. If 2010 is a good year for Republicans, then Dan Debicella could be a new majority maker. That being said, Himes sits on powerful committees and he is well funded by the companies that he oversees. Himes has spread around a lot of taxpayer money and will be able to raise a lot of money in return. Anyone interested in an effective way to level the playing field can do so here: https://debicella.blue-swarm.com/donate/ . Dan is a reformer in the mold of Paul Ryan. He is an effective advocate for the values of free enterprise and individual liberty who would well serve Fairfield County in Washington.