Dems Shift Expectations Game

Just how many seats will Dems lose in the House this year? That depends on who is asked, and when they said it, thanks to an expectations game that continues to shift as the political winds worsen.

DCCC chair Chris Van Hollen has tried to manage expectations from the beginning of the cycle, acknowledging the difficulties an incumbent party faces in a midterm election. Early last year, Van Hollen brought in Dems who had dealt with a wave in '94, hoping to learn from, and avoid, similar results.

"It's going to be competitive, but this is not going to be a 1994 redux," Van Hollen told Hotline OnCall last Nov. "We are staying on offense, and that was clearly one of the lessons from 1994. It was more circle the wagons, we're all on defense." On a Monday appearance on "Hardball," Van Hollen demonstrated he's still confident. "Democrats are not going to lose the House. The answer's 'no,'" Van Hollen said.

But as polls have shown an increasingly competitive national landscape, and a growing number of Dems facing tough re-election fights, a '94 redux may be taking shape. This weekend, WH press sec. Robert Gibbs admitted as much in an interview with NBC's "Meet the Press."

"I think there's no doubt that there are a lot of seats that will be up, a lot of contested seats," Gibbs said. "I think there's no doubt there are enough seats in play that could cause Republicans to gain control. There's no doubt about that."

Those comments angered some Dem strategists, who say the remarks will help drive down enthusiasm from the party's donor network. At a time when strategists are already worrying about as much as $300M in spending from outside groups bent on electing more GOPers, the last thing Dems need is a group of major donors convinced that another check will just be throwing good money after bad.

But the goal posts keep moving. At other times over the last 2 years, Dems have said their goal was to limit losses to fewer than 10 seats. Dems later said they would gladly take a 15-seat hit, assuming the environment might worsen further. By Feb., Rep. Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL), who leads the DCCC's incumbent retention program, said they party would lose fewer than 25 seats.

"The DCCC and our members have been preparing since day one last year for what we knew historically would be a very challenging election cycle," said Ryan Rudominer, a DCCC spokesperson.

On Tuesday, DNC chair Tim Kaine acknowledged the possibility of losing the House. But, he said, that's not anything new, citing an average loss of 28 seats in midterm elections for an incumbent party -- though he hinted that party losses might be much greater.

"I have definitely been in meetings where we looked at all kinds of scenarios. Yeah, in a tough climate anything is possible," Kaine said in an interview on MSNBC's Morning Joe. "The norm would be, if the Republicans have an average night -- the average since Teddy Roosevelt is the party that doesn't have the White House wins 28 House seats and four Senate seats. And we know we're not living in average times."

Still, other Dems -- especially those close to the party's campaign operations -- think Gibbs' remarks serve a purpose. Van Hollen and others have been warning of the dangers of a wave election and promising that the party in power wouldn't be taken by surprise, as Dems were in '94. But some Dems still haven't gotten the message, and Gibbs' comments could be the fog horn that wakes them up.

"You've got a lot of people who are not pulling their weight inside the Democratic Caucus," said one leadership aide, pointing to a slew of members who haven't paid their DCCC dues as examples. "There's been a bit of complacency that's crept into our members, particularly those who don't have tough races."

GOPers have been engaged in their own goal-setting, though for more internal purposes. House Min. Leader John Boehner has sought to tamp down expectations, while House Min. Whip Eric Cantor and GOP Conference Chair Mike Pence say they fully expect to win the majority.

Either way, GOP strategists say Cantor may hold the leader title in the new Congress -- either as majority leader, if Boehner becomes speaker, or as minority leader, if Cantor can convince the conference that Boehner didn't achieve the majority, and that Cantor ought to take over the top leadership job.

Dems have less in-fighting going on, but the lowered expectations reflect a very real, and growing, feeling inside the party that there are dozens of members whose seats might be in jeopardy -- and that this year, any risk is as good as fatal to a member's career.