How It's Playing: AZ Immigration Ruling

The Arizona immigration ruling yesterday has the potential to shake up the '10 landscape, but strategists are still trying to game out the national implications. The reality is that it's very tricky because immigration is as much a regional issue as a partisan one.

One thing's for sure: Several leading GOP and Dem SEN candidates are going to face a helluva time balancing their base without alienating indies/Hispanics, starting with GOPers running in Hispanic-heavy states like Marco Rubio (FL), Mark Kirk (IL), and Carly Fiorina (CA). Sharron Angle (NV) also fits the group, and she's already come out a-blazing against the ruling. That's encouraging news for Reid (NV), who needs Hispanics to turn out to win.

But in heavily-white, conservative SEN seats, the pitfalls are just as large for Dems. Brad Ellsworth (IN) ran as a border hawk in '06, but doesn't even mention it on his campaign site now. Same with Robin Carnahan (MO), a strong Dem candidate running in a state where Obama is unpopular and Hispanics make up 2% of the vote.

In House races so far, immigration has come up primarily in border districts. GOPers throughout the country are much more likely to address immigration on their campaign sites, per a new Smart Politics study. Money stat: Only 40 House Dems mentioned immigration issues on their websites, a number well less than the number of targeted incumbents.

The CW is that immigration favors GOP short-term, Dem long-term, though right now the nat'l mood strongly favors the AZ law. But for those not paying attention to their constituents and districts closely on the subject, it could be a damaging issue for them at the worst time.

Hotline Associate Writer Allan Bradley compiled a tally of the leading GOV/SEN/House candidates and their reactions to the ruling, for your perusal (below the jump):

Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) issued a join statement with Sen. Jon Kyl (R-AZ): "We are deeply disappointed in the court's ruling today and disagree with the court's opinion that the Arizona's law will unduly 'burden' the enforcement of federal immigration law. ... Instead of wasting tax payer resources filing a lawsuit against Arizona and complaining that the law would be burdensome, the Obama Administration should have focused its efforts on working with Congress to provide the necessary resources to support the state in its efforts to act where the Federal government has failed to take responsibility."

AZ SEN candidate J.D Hayworth (R): "The vast majority of Americans and Arizonans want this law implemented and the judge's action simply circumvents the people's will. Laws are made by citizens who are elected to serve in state legislatures and the U.S. Congress, and should not be made by federal judges who are appointed." (McCain and Hayworth statements available here)

AZ SEN candidate/ex-Tucson Vice Mayor Rodney Glassman (D) released a statement, saying "I said on the day that Gov. Jan Brewer signed this bill that it was inappropriate and that I believed it was constitutionally questionable. This ruling further emphasizes that the federal government needs to make immigration reform a high priority. For 28 years, John McCain has been on every side of the immigration issue, and has done nothing to solve this huge problem that has a major impact on Arizona."

Meanwhile, for AZ GOV, AG/ex-Phoenix mayor Terry Goddard (D) took a shot at Brewer: "Jan Brewer played politics with immigration, and she lost. Rather than providing the leadership Arizona needs to solve the immigration problem, Jan Brewer signed a bill she could not defend in court which has led to boycotts, jeopardized our tourism industry and polarized our state. ... Now we can focus on steps, such as the ones I have been taking, to go after border crime and cut off the cash that flows to organized criminal cartels that smuggle thousands into the U.S." (link)

AZ Dem reps, balancing complicated voter interests, were more willing to blame nat'l Dem leadership:

Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D-AZ-01): "There are no winners here. No matter what the courts ultimately decide, we will still have wasted millions of dollars, and our borders will still not be secure. The administration needs to stop pursuing this distraction and start working with us to get the border region under control and develop a national immigration strategy." (link)

Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ-08): "The latest chapter in what promises to be a lengthy legal fight over Arizona's immigration law has been written. But this court battle must not be allowed to distract us from the real issue: Arizonans want our nation to control its borders and bring a halt to the violence, smugglers and drugs that threaten our communities." (link)

Perhaps the most cutting Dem indictment of the nat'l Dem leadership came in a release from AZ-03 candidate/atty Jon Hulburd (D). Hulburd: "Last week, Senate Republicans succeeded in killing $700 million for border security. Today, President Obama succeeded in stalling implementation of SB 1070. As usual, Washington is making a lot of noise and doing absolutely nothing to secure the border. They have no idea of the voter revolt that's about to send them all packing."

Rep. Harry Mitchell (R-AZ-05): "Today's ruling should not provide Washington any kind of excuse not to address the issue. Arizonans are justifiably fed up with the federal government's failure to secure the border and fix our broken immigration system, and are fed up with of all the political posturing and grandstanding on this issue. ... There are no victors today, except those who want to use this protracted litigation as a means to grandstand and score political points." (link)

Outside of overheated AZ, the rhetoric was just as sharp.

CA GOV candidate Meg Whitman (R) was on conservative Talk Radio 7/28 a.m., and hours before the preliminary injunction was issued, she said, "I would let the Arizona law stand for Arizona." (link)

FL GOV candidate Rick Scott (R) and FL GOV candidate Bill McCollum (R) both said 7/28 that despite Bolton's ruling, they would support an AZ-style immigration law if elected.

Scott, on the ruling: "a perfect example of why there is so much frustration with the political class in this country. ... It just doesn't make sense for a judge to prohibit police from doing their job and asking people they arrest to show proof that they are here legally. The Arizona law is right and as I've said many times before, as governor, I'll bring the Arizona law to Florida."

McCollum: "(The) sovereignty of states has been dealt a serious blow. ... I will also continue working with Rep. Will Snyder, House Chairman of Criminal and Civil Justice Policy Council, to draft legislation for Florida's version of the Arizona immigration law that will strengthen our immigration laws and give law enforcement additional tools in combatting illegal immigration." (FL GOV story here)

FL GOV candidate Alex Sink's (D) tone was mild, but she accused nat'l Dems of poor leadership on the issue. Sink: "Regardless of the ruling on Arizona, the federal government needs to work with the states to crack down on illegal immigration. A comprehensive immigration policy is the responsibility of the federal government. Unfortunately, the federal government has failed to secure our borders and aggressively pursue a solution to illegal immigration." (link)

FL SEN candidate/ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R): "I think the decision today is important to understand, number one, why do we even have an Arizona law? And that's because the federal government hasn't done its job. And the second thing we need to remind ourselves is that the court hasn't thrown the law out. What they did was they basically postponed implementation until certain issues are resolved with it. ... I think at the end of the day, the law is going to be upheld." (link)

FL SEN candidate/FL Gov. Charlie Crist (I) declined comment. When a reporter asked his reaction to the ruling, he replied, "no reaction."

NV SEN candidate ex-NV Assemb. Sharron Angle (R) blasted Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) in a statement. Angle: "It's bad enough the Federal Government won't secure our borders, but today's ruling is an absolute outrage. Harry Reid and the Democrats in Washington have failed to secure America's borders, refused to enforce federal laws, and neglected to address one of the most serious problems facing our country. This is an unacceptable failure of our federal government and the people of Nevada deserve better than a so-called leader in the Senate who won't even acknowledge that illegal immigration is a problem here at home."

CO SEN candidate/ex-CO LG Jane Norton (R) launched a round of robocalls, telling voters that she was proud to have the endorsement of Brewer. The Norton camp planned to call almost 200K GOP voters. (link