Insiders: Odds Increase for GOP House Takeover
The prospects of a GOP takeover of the House in upcoming midterm elections continue to rise according to the latest National Journal Political Insiders Poll.
Insiders we asked, "On a scale of zero (no chance) to 10 (virtual certainty), how likely are the Republicans to take over the House this November?" The average rating from 100 Dem Insiders who responded to the poll this week was 4.5, up from a 3.7 rating when the question was last asked in April. The average rating from the 104 GOP Insiders who responded was a very bullish 6.6, up from 5.8 in April.
Dem Insiders who are more skeptical of the GOP chances generally felt that while their party would lose seats, the GOP still has plenty of hurdles to overcome like coming up with a compelling message and the prevailing anti-incumbent mood that is likely to claim casualties in both parties. Still, as one Dem Insider who only rated the GOP chances at 3-in-10 said, "That may sound low, but I wouldn't want to walk into surgery with those odds."
Dems who were more pessimistic about their chances of holding the House feared that time was running out for the economy to strengthen its recovery and for voters to take notice of that.
GOP Insiders thought the overall political environment was providing their candidates with a strong wind that their backs, but there were also worries that weak fundraising at the NRCC and RNC -- a concern that was evident in April -- continues to cast a cloud over the party's chances of winning back the House.
One historical note: 4 years ago this week, when the identical question was asked about the chances that the Dems would takeover the House, the GOP Insiders put the odds at 4.5 and the Dem Insiders put the odds at 5.8. So indeed, GOPers are very upbeat as they look towards November.
For complete results of this week's poll and all the comments, click here.