Joseph Cao Poll Shows Big Lead

Conventional wisdome suggests Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA) is the most vulnerable GOPer in Congress, seeking re-election in a heavily African-American district in which any scandal-free Dem should easily top half the vote. But conventional wisdom has been wrong before, and a new poll for Cao's campaign hopes to prove it wrong again.

Cao led state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) by a 51%-26% margin, according to a survey conducted May 27-June 2 by LA pollster Verne Kennedy. Cao leads Richmond by a 67%-13% margin among white voters, and by a narrower 39%-36% margin among African American voters.

That African American vote will play a decisive factor in the New Orleans-based district. African Americans make up 61% of the voter registration rolls, but recent turnout statistics show African Americans are seriously underrepresented at the polls.

Kennedy writes in a memo to Cao's campaign that he believes turnout among black voters will top out at 57%. Accordingly, 57% of the sample was African American, while 39% was white. Cao's lead comes even as both candidates were identified by party -- meaning voters said they would vote for Cao even though they knew he was a GOPer.

"Strong evidence exists that a fundamental change has occurred among African-Americans in the New Orleans area, where performance overrides ethnic voting," Kennedy said. "And since Joseph Cao is also a minority candidate who has an outstanding record of personal and political accomplishments, African-Americans identify with him and are willing to give much higher support to a non-African-American than in previous elections."

Cao is well-known throughout his district -- surprisingly so, for a freshman. Fully 54% of district residents rate him favorably, while just 9% say they see him unfavorably. Richmond is much less well-known, clocking in at 23% favorable and 12% unfavorable. Dems believe they will win over a much larger vote share as Richmond's name becomes better known.

The poll also tested Cao against state Sen. Karen Carter Peterson (D), who last week said she wouldn't run and who trailed Cao by a 49%-30% margin. The poll did not test state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D), who has qualified to run for the seat but who has much less cash on hand than Richmond and is seen as an underdog in the Dem primary.

Dems say Carter Peterson's decision not to file will give them a leg up in the long run. Running alongside Richmond and LaFonta, little-known businessman Gary Johnson (D) and ex-Congressional aide Eugene Green (D) are unlikely to take a significant percentage of the vote, meaning the winner of the Aug. 28 primary will likely get more than 50% of the vote and avoid a runoff.

Dems also caught a break when several African Americans considering an independent bid against Cao said they would not file, limiting the potential for a split Dem base. Cao got a challenger at the last minute in salesman Norman Billiot (R), though on Monday Billiot withdrew his name, giving Cao a clean shot at the GOP nomination.

Opposition strategists pointed to the very makeup of Cao's district, which gave Pres. Obama 75% of the vote in '08. No other member of Congress holds a district that favored the other party's WH nominee by such a large margin.

"Rep. Cao has done anything he needed to in order to stay in good graces with his national Republican benefactors and try to block President Obama's agenda in a district where voters strongly support it," said DCCC spokesman Jesse Ferguson. "The moment Cao voted against historic health insurance reform was the moment we knew our Democratic nominee will be successful in November."

The poll was conducted by Kennedy's firm, Market Research Insight. It surveyed 400 voters for a margin of error of +/- 5%.