Reading Into The DCCC's Ad Buy
Dems are as concerned about well-established members of Congress as they are about freshmen swept into office over the last 2 wave elections, their new ad buy shows.
The initial wave of ad purchases, a $7.7M buy aimed at protecting 17 Dem incumbents, shows Dems believe the national battleground will extend from upstate NY to the Gulf Coast and the Mountain West. And along with freshmen members of Congress, the DCCC has also reserved ad time in districts held by Dem incumbents for decades.
Any national wave is characterized by the range of lawmakers who lose their races. In '94 and '06, experience in Congress didn't make much of a difference.
GOPers were able to take out House Speaker Tom Foley (D-WA), House Judiciary Committee chair Jack Brooks (D-TX), Ways and Means chair Dan Rostenkowski and other long-standing members in '94. That year, they also beat out 15 first-term members. When Dems took back the House, they beat House Resources Committee chair Richard Pombo (R-CA), and Reps. Nancy Johnson (R-CT), Clay Shaw (R-FL) and Jim Leach (R-IA), all of whom had held their seats for more than 20 years.
This year, Dems will move to protect House Budget Committee chair John Spratt (D-SC), who faces a tough challenge from state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R). The DCCC has reserved between $431K and $439K for Spratt in the Charlotte market, along with $120K in the Florence-Myrtle Beach market and $170K in the Columbia market. Dems will also move to protect Reps. Allen Boyd (D-FL) and Leonard Boswell (D-IA), both of whom have served in Congress for more than a decade.
The party has also reserved ad time aimed at protecting Reps. Bill Owens (D-NY) and Mark Critz (D-PA), 2 candidates who won special elections over the last year. Freshmen and sophomores will suck up a big portion of the DCCC's spending; fully 10 of the 17 Dems for whom the DCCC will buy ads were first elected in '06 or '08.
And Dems are acting frugally, too, purchasing TV time in districts where costs are low. Rep. Kathy Dahlkemper (D-PA) will benefit from 5K points in Erie, at a cost of just $51.80 per point. 3,200 points in Rapid City, SD, will cost the DCCC just $51.55 each to help out Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD). And Rep. Michael Arcuri's (D-NY) district takes in Binghampton and Utica, which cost only $41.64 and $48.45 per point, respectively. Dems have reserved more than half a million dollars for Arcuri's race.
The party only reserved ad time in 2 major urban areas -- Pittsburgh, on behalf of Dahlkemper and Critz, and Denver, for Rep. Betsy Markey (D-CO). In other suburbs where GOPers are challenging incumbent Dems, places like Philadelphia, Cincinnati, Columbus and Chicago, committees frequently find it more valuable to conduct independent expenditure campaigns through the mail.
Just because Dems have reserved the time doesn't mean the party has to actually spend the money. Reserving time early means the party is locking in lower rates, but if races appear either won or lost with just weeks to go, Dems can give up their reserved spots. One Dem strategist familiar with the committee's operations pointed to '08, when the party made early buys in both Dem and GOP-held districts then ended up moving money to other seats.
The DCCC has a huge financial advantage over the NRCC. Dems' $34M in the bank is twice the $17M GOPers have to run their independent expenditures. And Dems point to members who have huge cash on hand advantages over their GOP rivals. That combination could save key members in tough races this year, though the early ad buy shows Dems are worried the midterms could turn into a wave that sweeps out both the old and the new.
The DCCC knows that Brad Zaun won't have the resources to go on the air in IA-03 for a very long time. He had only about $100K on hand at the end of the second quarter; Leonard Boswell had seven times that amount and has Bill Clinton coming to headline a fundraiser for him in the next week.
I don't see the NRCC helping make up for Zaun's cash disadvantage in IA-03; they only just put Zaun "on the radar". With only $17m on hand, the NRCC can't afford to advertise in all of the 40 "young guns" districts, let alone the districts with challengers in their "contender" and "on the radar" categories.
All money in world can't save any of these lock step Dems
Voters want change and its conservative change
BYE BYE Libs and that includes Boswell desmoinesdem