Thursday's Starting Lineup
The DCCC has reserved $7.7M in air time in the first wave of massive buys, locking in low rates now in an effort to save their House majority. And, the ad buys show, the party is as worried about Dems who have been in office for years as they are about freshmen swept into office in '06 and '08.
The committee's independent expenditure arm is tipping the party's hand by showing off districts in which they believe the incumbent is vulnerable. The AP's Phil Elliott first reported the ad buys last night.
The IE department is where the DCCC has a huge advantage over its GOP rival. Though the NRCC outraised the DCCC last quarter, Dems still have a 2-1 cash on hand advantage. The party is reserving ad time in key states and districts, including races featuring long-entrenched incumbents.
Seats where Dems have already reserved airtime include:
CO 04: Dems are setting aside $744K to defend Rep. Betsy Markey (D), who faces a stiff challenge from state Sen. Cory Gardner (R). That represents 2K total points in the Denver media market over the race's final 2 weeks.
FL 02: Rep. Allen Boyd (D) will get $455K in assistance -- nearly saturation level in the Tallahassee and Panama City over the race's final 2 weeks. Boyd will likely face funeral home director Steve Southerland (R) this fall.
ID 01: Dems shouldn't have a lot to worry about after a promising challenger fell flat against Rep. Walt Minnick (D), but the committee is reserving $135K in Boise and $158K in Spokane for his race just in case. Minnick faces state Rep. Raul Labrador (R), who doesn't have a lot of cash on hand.
IN 02: Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) is already up with his own ads, and the DCCC has $276K spread out over the final 2 week in his district. That's 1600 points for the week of Oct. 19-25 and 1800 the following week in the very inexpensive South Bend market. He faces state Rep. Jackie Walorski (R).
IA 03: The NRCC is targeting Rep. Leonard Boswell (D), so the DCCC is playing defense. The party has purchased $336K in ad time in Des Moines and Cedar Rapids for Boswell's race against state Sen. Brad Zaun (R).
NM 01, 02: Reps. Martin Heinrich (D) and Harry Teague (D) face strong challenges this year, and the DCCC has $500K in ad time saved for one or both. Heinrich faces former Albuquerque Hispanic Chamber of Commerce pres. Jon Barela (R) and Teague is up against ex-Rep. Steve Pearce (R).
NY 23, 24: The DCCC is going to be investing lots in the Empire State's ad market. Aimed at saving both Reps. Bill Owens (D) and Michael Arcuri (D), the committee bought $659K in Syracuse, $106K in Utica, markets that cover both districts. The $136K in Watertown and $116K in Burlington-Plattsburgh cover Owens' district, while the $129K in Binghampton is set aside for Arcuri.
NC 08, SC 05: A freshman and a veteran find themselves in deep trouble. Rep. Larry Kissell (D-NC) will face ex-sportscaster Harold Johnson (R), while Rep. John Spratt (D-SC) faces state Sen. Mick Mulvaney (R). The DCCC has $871K in time reserved in Charlotte, which can be used for either Dem, along with $120K in Florence-Myrtle Beach and $170K in Columbia for Spratt.
PA 03, 12: Rep. Kathy Dalhkemper (D) is getting plenty of help this year in her bid against ex-Butler city councilman Mike Kelly (R). The DCCC has $871K set aside in Pittsburgh alone, plus another $259K in Erie. And the party plans to start early; Dahlkemper's is the only race in which they've planned 4 weeks of airtime. Meanwhile, part of that Pittsburgh money is going to go to newly elected Rep. Mark Critz (D), and the DCCC will spend another $149K in Johnstown on his behalf.
SD AL: Rep. Stephanie Herseth Sandlin (D-SD) has faced tough races before, and that experience will come in handy this year. She faces state Rep. Kristi Noem (R), about whom GOPers are excited, and the DCCC will be there with $468K over the last 2 weeks on her behalf.
TX 23: Rep. Ciro Rodriguez (D) will face businessman Quico Canseco (R) in Nov. The DCCC is reserving $398K in the San Antonio market for his race. The party also has $52K set aside in El Paso, though that money could go to either Rodriguez or Teague, in neighboring NM. GOP strategists believe the money is aimed at Teague's seat.
VA 02, 05: Reps. Glenn Nye (D) and Tom Perriello (D) face 2 of the toughest, most high-profile challenges this year. Nye, running against businessman Scott Rigell (R), will benefit from $304K in spending in Norfolk. Perriello faces state Sen. Robert Hurt (R), and Dems have reserved $256K in Roanoke and $55K in Charlottesville on his behalf.
Dems are confident in their secret weapons, and they have reason to be at least partially optimistic: The party has won special elections in key swing districts over the last year, demonstrating that even in a crummy national climate, candidates and campaigns matter. Then again, given how ugly the party's issue matrix is, good campaigns could be their only hope of saving the House.
Update: We incorrectly identified Brian Smoot as the DCCC's independent expenditure chief.




