Tour De France: A Political View

Tomorrow in Rotterdam, perhaps our favorite sporting event -- the Tour de France -- kicks off with an 8 km prologue stage. We've turned to several politicos who will be glued to their TVs for the next 3 weeks to make their predictions and explain how cycling relates to politics.

For the uninitiated, we've asked John Foster, campaign manager to Rep. Walt Minnick (D-ID) and a former semi-pro racer, to make a few parallels. Here's his take:

THE OVERSIGHT:

-- Union Cycliste Internationale = Federal Elections Commission. Oversight body more focused on random limits and obscure rules (weight limits for bikes, contribution limits for campaigns) but seemingly unable to tackle the real issues (doping, illegal campaign coordination.)

THE TEAMS:

-- Radio Shack = NRSC. All the talent, all the money, all the potential. But rocked by serious problems right before the serious work is about to start.

-- Astana = DCCC. A couple of great years, but lots of upheaval and uncertainty headed into the big event. Still have the best top players, but can their lieutenants step up?

-- Saxo Bank = RGA. Quiet, professional and ruthlessly effective. Always there when it counts, always find a way to produce.

-- BMC = DLCC. Scrappy, overlooked group with great talent and real potential to fly under the radar and surprise a few folks.

-- Garmin = DSCC. Things have gone well for a while, so it doesn't take much to have a successful year. But they need a big score to stay relevant.

-- Quick-Step = NRCC. Lots of talent, lots of money, lots of potential but never totally come through when it counts. Everyone keeps thinking that "this year is their year" but believability is strained.

THE CONTENDERS:

-- Alberto Contador = Nancy Pelosi. A very good run over the last several years, but with many enemies made along the way. Still the most talented player. Has to be considered the odds-on favorite based on past history.

-- Andy Schleck = Eric Cantor. Young, aggressive, talented. But still finding the right way to victory. Needs a bit more experience to become dominant, but definitely with the raw talent to pull off something big.

-- Lance Armstrong = Rahm Emanuel. Lance may be from Texas, but he is like Rahm -- a classically trained practitioner of "The Chicago Way." Fair, fierce, loyal and willing to do whatever it takes, and God help you if you cross them.

-- Cadel Evans = Jim DeMint. A damn hard guy to figure out. Clearly able to do some amazing stuff and his supporters are fiercely loyal. But most folks find him ... well, odd.

-- Ivan Basso = Chuck Schumer. So talented, so cool, so good on his feet. Everything about him just screams "talent" and "natural." Oh, and getting into trouble seems to slide right off him.

THE COMMENTATORS:

-- Phil Liggett = Chris Matthews. Amazing ability to talk, amazing insight into the race, amazing willingness to say baffling stuff that makes you laugh and shake your head.

-- Paul Sherwyn = Chuck Todd. The young balance to the crazy old guy. Laser-sharp, with keen insight and all the good stories thanks to a non-stop desire for good anecdotes.

-- Bob Roll = James Carville. It really doesn't matter if what he says is useful or insightful (and it often is) because how he says it is so damn entertaining.

Campaigns and Elections' Jeremy Jacobs offers his breakdown:

Since the tour has multiple competitions, let's take them one at a time.

General Classification (the Yellow jersey): While it pains me to say it, Astana's Alberto Contador is the man to beat and he probably won't be beaten. His team, which was supposed to suck, has actually been pretty good this year. He is in a league of his own and his dominance will put me in a foul mood for at least the last week of le Tour. Can Lance give him a run? Maybe. He has looked better and better this summer and he has a very experienced (and old) team around him. If RadioShack can control the race and they can launch multiple attacks -- Chris Horner first, then probably Levi Leipheimer, then maybe Andreas Kloden -- maybe, just maybe, Lance has a shot. I don't know how Lance wins if it comes down to him going one on one with Contador; Lance won't be able to match his accelerations.

Other contenders: Everyone is talking about Andy Schleck because he won the Luxembourg time trial championship a couple weeks ago. I don't know. I think he has looked very bad all year. In fact, I think his brother, Frank, has looked much better. Omega-Lotto's Jurgen Van Den Broeck is a good grand tour rider that people are just starting to talk about -- too bad his team sucks. It'll be interesting to watch 2 teams in particular: Rabobank and Liquigas. Both have 2 (maybe 3) good riders. Liquigas has Ivan Basso who just won the Giro and, thus, probably won't factor into this tour. They also have Roman Krueziger, who many are picking to make a surprise showing. Rabobank has Russian Dennis Menchov, who won the Giro last year but tends to disappoint at le Tour. If he falters, they'll focus on Robert Gesink or my new favorite rider who could be the real dark horse this year: Lars Boom.

Others to watch: Garmin's Christian Vande Velde, Sky's Bradley Wiggins and BMC's Cadel Evans. I am probably wrong, but I don't really see these guys factoring in too much.

Best young rider (the white jersey): This one, like the next one, is usually tough to call. And with the exception of Andy Schleck, who won it last year, the leader in this category typically doesn't factor into the GC. The most surprising thing about this category has been the omission of Peter Sagan from Liquigas' tour roster. He has been on fire this year but Liquigas is focusing on the GC.

King of the Mountains (the miserable polka dot jersey): I have no idea. And I don't think anyone really cares. If Carlos Sastre has any form, he could make a go of it, but who knows. If Rabobank's Gesink can't hang in the GC because he is not a very good time trialer, he may also be a possibility.

Points competition (the Green jersey): Here's where it gets way more fun. HTC/Columbia's Mark Cavendish is looking for revenge after a penalty all but cost him the green jersey last year. He hasn't had the best form this year, but HTC is a well oiled machine when it comes to delivering him to the line. Cervelo's Thor Hushovd will likely stand in Cavendish's way, again. The Viking God of sprinting has had a tough year -- he crashed early on -- but he is very consistent. Look for him to be sitting on Cavendish's wheel during the lead outs. Other possibilities: Rabobank's Oscar Freire. He is an enigma. Garmin's Tyler Farrar has also had a good year so far.

Hotline editor Amy Walter: "I pick Levi to win. The bridesmaid finally gets to the altar. And, please, dear God, don't let him be involved in any sort of drug scandal. It will crush my soul."

Pollster.com's Mark Blumenthal weighs in: "I am, admittedly, one of those cycling fans who follows the sport most closely in July, which means I''m pretty much a Lance Armstrong fan-boy. Alas, the seven-time winner is not the favorite for this year's grand tour but he has a strong team and has been competitive since his comeback, so I'll rate him an 8-1 underdog for mostly sentimental reasons. I'm confident the Texan will make the race interesting, at least, as he always does. I've seen no reason to doubt that two-time tour winner Alberto Contador deserves his 5-8 odds on the British site BetFair -- the Spaniard looks as strong as ever -- but I think the gamblers may be underrating the potential of Luxembourg's Andy Schleck. I'd give Schleck 5-1 odds for his second place finish last year and his strong time trial performances so far this summer."

Your Hotline OnCall editor has a few thoughts too: Alberto Contador is the heavy favorite to win, according to European oddsmakers, going off at 3/5. And he's proven this year he deserves that mantle, riding away from his closest competition seemingly at will. Andy Schleck has the second-best odds to win, but his form was off in the Tour de Suisse, and this may not be the year he challenges for the top spot.

Both Schleck (25) and Contador (27) are relatively young; their rivalry will be fun to watch in years to come, but right now Contador is the clear favorite. Schleck's only hope is that late mountain stages give him a chance to shine, and that Contador does something he hasn't done in a long time -- have a bad day.

Lance Armstrong has already said this will be his final Tour de France, making the 100th Tour one of sentimental value. Team Radio Shack is good and getting better, but there's a chance the team won't even be riding for their hero by the end of the race. Leipheimer looks better right now, and if he has legs one day when Armstrong doesn't, he could prove to be Radio Shack's next big thing.

The best bet for the money is Cadel Evans, the reigning world champion who hasn't been able to break through in a Grand Tour yet. Evans is streaky, and he's prone to fits of rage (See his mid-Peleton fist fight earlier this year) and bad luck. But he had a couple of brilliant moments in the Giro d'Italia, and his team, BMC, has some good talent -- most notably American George Hincapie, who will be Evans' biggest asset. At 33-1 odds, Evans offers the possibility of paying off big.

Cycling is much more of a team sport than many thing, and Liquigas-Doimo is a shining example. Or they could be, if they'd put their top players on the roster. The 1-2-3-4 punch of Ivan Basso, winner of the Giro; Vincenzo Nibali, who wore the leader's pink jersey and won 2 stages at the Giro; co-captain Roman Kreuziger; and sprinter Daniele Bennati could have proven formidable. But we're with Jeremy -- the decision to leave young Peter Sagan off the Tour team is disappointing, while Nibali and Bennati were also left out.