August 2010

Sen. Lisa Murkowski conceded to Joe Miller Tuesday, putting an end to one of the most remarkable political upsets of the cycle thus far.

GOP sources confirmed to The Hotline that Murkowski would concede defeat to Miller on Tuesday night after failing to narrow the gap as key absentee ballots were counted.

After the primary last week, Murkowski was hoping she could close a 1,668 vote deficit when 15K absentee ballots and 9K questioned ballots were counted. When the Alaska Division of Election began counting those ballots on Tuesday, however, it quickly became clear that Murkowski was not closing the gap. After counting another 15,700 ballots Tuesday, Murkowski trailed by 1,469 votes.

The concession will cap off Miller's shocking upset. Miller will take on Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D) in the general election.

With Murkowski out of the race, at least on the GOP side, national Dems believe they have a shot at picking up the seat. Republicans, however, remain confident that Miller will win, and even put a poll into the field this week that found Miller leading 52% to 36%.

Murkowski has been denied a bid on the AK Libertarian Party ticket, but she could run as a write-in, if she chooses.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski's (R-AK) path to a come-from-behind victory over Joe Miller is narrowing, as Alaska election officials continue to count absentee ballots in the Republican primary.

Miller leads the latest count by 1,292 votes -- 50,241 (50.65%) to Murkowski's 48,949 (49.35%). Murkowski gained a net of 376 votes in this afternoon's count, as ballots from her base in Anchorage were tallied.

There are approximately 15,000 uncounted absentee and contested ballots that could still end up in the final count, according to the Anchorage Daily News' latest report, though some of the ballots were cast in the Democratic primary and some may not be legally cast.

Murkowski needs to win at least 55 percent of the outstanding ballots to have a shot at overcoming her deficit - a tall task since a significant share of the remaining ballots are from Miller strongholds in Fairbanks and the Kenai Peninsula.

The Chamber of Commerce has gone up with an ad backed by a large ad buy hitting Rep. Paul Hodes (D) in the New Hampshire Senate race.

The ad is an indication that the Chamber, which has pledged to spend $75M in this year's elections, is going to heavily invest in New Hampshire.

The ad attacks Hodes for supporting "out of control spending" that has helped push America's debt to $13 trillion." It also goes after Hodes' support of health care reform and cap-and-trade.

The Chamber spent almost $1M on the ad -- for both production and putting it on the air -- according to it's FEC filing. The Chamber declined to disclose the exact size of the buy, other than to say it's "sizable" and that the group plans to spend more money in NH -- which is, no doubt, bad news for Hodes.

Updated, 6:30 p.m.

Rep. Rick Boucher (D) is in a surprisingly good position in his race against Republican challenger Del. Morgan Griffith, according to his internal polling.

The poll, provided to Hotline On Call, found that when likely voters in VA-09 were asked who they plan to vote for, Boucher leads by a striking 55% to 32% margin. The poll was conducted Aug. 18-22.

Now, this polling should be viewed with a grain of salt since it was done by a Dem firm -- Benenson Strategy Group.

But even taking that into account, these numbers are surprising. Particularly striking are Boucher's favorability numbers. Nearly two thirds -- 65% -- view the congressman favorably while 27% view him unfavorably. An even higher number -- 68% -- approve of the job Boucher is doing in Congress.

Those numbers defy the conventional wisdom. This is a heavily Republican district that John McCain carried with 59% of the vote in '08.

Tellingly, the NRCC did not reserve ad time in this district, which may be an indication that their numbers also show Griffith trailing.

In the latest installment of Hotline TV, Reid Wilson and Josh Kraushaar debate whether the slowing economy should make Pres. Obama worried about 2012.

The Tea Party Express, the fiscally conservative organization that has helped nominate several GOP underdogs this year, endorsed Delaware Senate candidate Christine O'Donnell (R) without knowing too much about her personal financial history.

O'Donnell, a perennial conservative candidate in Delaware, is challenging moderate Rep. Mike Castle (R), the clear favorite of the GOP establishment. But she has come under fire recently for her personal financial problems. Reports have surfaced that she owed $10K in back taxes, defaulted on her mortgage and holds outstanding campaign debt.

Levi Russell, a spokesman for the group, told Hotline On Call that the group was not aware of O'Donnell's personal financial problems before it endorsed her.

"We don't know the exact situation," he said.

When asked if the group discussed the issues with O'Donnell, Russell responded: "No we haven't. We don't really have any contact with the campaign or the candidate."

Tea Party Express concentrates on supporting candidates who share its conservative views on fiscal issues -- cutting taxes and balancing the budget. Russell said that even with these revelations about O'Donnell's financial history, the organization will stand behind her.

"In our view we would rather have someone who owes some back taxes but is not trying to hide them than someone who is trying to sell out the Tea Party," Russell said, referring to Castle.

The Tea Party Express, which spent $600K in support of SEN candidate Joe Miller (R) in AK last week, is preparing to fully wade into the DE primary with TV ads.

The primary between Castle and O'Donnell is taking place Sept. 14.

The conservative Crossroads GPS is up with a new issue ad on Tuesday that seeks to hang Pres. Obama and health care reform around the neck of KY SEN candidate Jack Conway (D).

The ad represents the first time American Crossroads has directly tied Obama to a Dem candidate in an ad -- and it's one of the few anywhere that prominently highlights health care. The ad shows Conway and Obama riding in a car together.

"Obamacare is the wrong way for Kentucky," the ad's narrator says. "And Jack Conway is going the wrong way too."

The ad goes on to criticize health care reform for increasing taxes and creating higher insurance premiums.

Crossroads GPS has had a slew of ads up recently. They are also on the air in the Missouri Senate race, attacking Robin Carnahan (D) and in Nevada against Sen. Harry Reid (D-NV). They have also aired ads attacking Sen. Barbara Boxer (D-CA) and in Pennsylvania against SEN nominee Rep. Joe Sestak (D).

Obama is a serious problem for Conway as he faces Rand Paul (R). Obama only won 41 percent of the vote in Kentucky in 2008 -- one of his worst performances in any state -- and his approval has only dipped further in the Bluegrass State since. The ad is part of a $520K ad buy American Crossroads had made in the state.

Expect to see lots of ads from Democrats and their allies attacking Republican candidates for supporting privatizing Social Security.

Today AFSCME is going up with its second ad targeting ex-state Sen. Joe Heck (R) on the issue. Heck is running against Rep. Dina Titus (D) in a suburban Las Vegas district, one of the most competitive districts this cycle.

"If it was up to Joe Heck, he would have erased her retirement," the narrator says, referring to a senior citizen featured in the ad. "Gambling it away on Wall Street. Turning Social Security into another Wall Street bailout where $6 trillion was erased when the economy crashed."

The message is similar to the one we saw yesterday when the DCCC launched its first independent expenditure of the cycle against "Real World" star and ex-Ashland Co. DA Sean Duffy in WI 07.

On the Senate side, Sen. Blanche Lincoln (D-AR) has also used the charge against her challenger, Rep. John Boozman (R).

Also worth noting, AFSCME is already investing heavily in the NV 03 race. This is its second ad in the district; the first focused on women voters.

House Min. Leader John Boehner (R-OH) will get the jump on Pres. Obama's prime time address, offering his second major address in as many weeks and setting up Boehner as a viable opponent to Obama if the GOP takes back the House this year and Boehner becomes Speaker.

Boehner will focus his speech on 4 areas, according to excerpts provided to reporters: Iraq, Afghanistan, Israel, and veterans affairs.

On Iraq, Boehner will praise Gen. David Petraeus' surge strategy. "When General Petraeus embarked on the surge strategy in January 2007, it was widely viewed as our last chance to save Iraq from spiraling into an irreversible descent toward chaos," Boehner will say. "Some leaders who opposed, criticized, and fought tooth-and-nail to stop the surge strategy now proudly claim credit for the results."

"Today," he'll add, "we mark not the defeat those voices anticipated - but progress."

The GOPer will also declare his support for the counterinsurgency strategy in Afghanistan. "But," he'll say, "the president must do more to emphasize his commitment to ensuring its success rather than focusing on meeting arbitrary deadlines for withdrawal."

Boehner will also warn Obama against "using campaign promises as a yardstick to measure success." That, Boehner will say, "runs the risk of triggering artificial victory laps and premature withdrawal dates unconnected to conditions on the ground."

Good Tuesday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. On the radar today: Pres. Obama takes ownership of the conflicts in the Middle East, GOP owns another recess, Miller's big day, and Young Guns.

Mission Accomplished? No, Pres. Obama won't say those words tonight when he addresses the nation from the Oval Office to commemorate the end of combat operations in Iraq, according to the White House. "You won't hear those words coming from us," WH Press Secretary Robert Gibbs said Monday. But make no mistake, Obama's prime time address from the Oval Office -- only his second -- will mark him taking ownership of the conflict in Iraq. He is expected to emphasize keeping the promise he made in the '08 campaign to end combat operations in Iraq.

A couple things to keep in mind: Obama goes into any address with the advantages of being a gifted orator, but can he reassure an American public that U.S. involvement in the Middle East that the missions in Iraq and Afghanistan remain vital to our national security?

And second, it's worth remembering that many Dems across the country view this as a distraction. Democrats argue that any day not focused on the economy is a wasted day in their efforts to retain House and Senate majorities. Count today as one of those days. http://bit.ly/btyLvp

GOP Owns Another Recess: Is there any question that this has been a disastrous August for Democrats? Look no farther than the latest Gallup poll that shows the GOP leading Dems by a whopping 10% on the generic ballot, the party's largest lead ever since Gallup first asked the question in 1942.

The Gallup numbers, along with the other troubling news for Democrats, has raised the specter of a historic "tidal wave" election for Republicans this November. It also has set expectations so sky-high that anything short of a House takeover will be seen as a big disappointment for Republicans.

Miller Time: By the end of the day, we'll have a good sense of whether Joe Miller (R) has pulled off his upset of Sen. Lisa Murkowski in the AK SEN GOP primary. The Alaska Division of Elections resumes counting the 23,472 ballots remaining, with Miller currently leading by 1,668. MSNBC's "First Read" provides a good break down of the numbers: A majority of the ballots left to be counted -- 13,740 -- are absentees. 9,069 are "questioned" ballots, many of which will likely be thrown out. And there are 663 "early" votes to be counted. Alaska is expected to count about 15,000 today and MSNBC predicts that Murkowski would have to take about 55% of the ballots left to be counted to overcome Miller.

Already, there are signs that the GOP is ready to move on from the primary. A telling sign: The Hotline's Reid Wilson reported Monday that the NRSC has already put a poll in the field for Miller, and got strong results. Miller led Sitka Mayor Scott Adams (D) by a 52% to 36% margin. http://bit.ly/aBDEOL, http://bit.ly/avJORO

The NRCC will add 6 candidates to its "Young Gun" roster on Tuesday, bringing the total to 52 for the program so far this cycle.

This fifth round of "Young Guns," provided to Hotline On Call, is primarily composed of candidates who emerged from recent primaries and represents some of the GOP's top pickup opportunities this fall.

The candidates are state Rep. Sandy Adams (R) in FL-24, surgeon Dan Benishek (R) in MI-01, ret. Army Col. Chris Gibson (R) in NY-20, auto dealer Mike Kelly (R) in PA-03, funeral homes owner Steve Southerland in FL-02 (R) and ex-state Sen. Daniel Webster (R) in FL-08.

In FL-24, Adams will take take on Rep. Suzanne Kosmas (D). Adams benefitted from GOP infighting in the primary between ex-Winter Park Commis. Karen Diebel and ex-Ruth's Chris CEO Craig Miller. Notably, NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions (R-TX) waded into that fight, defending Diebel from attacks on her character made by Miller in a last minute mailer. Sessions didn't endorse any candidate in the primary, however.

Republicans view this district as a prime pick up opportunity, but Adams will have to step up her fundraising in a big way. She finished the primary with $115K CoH while Kosmas has $1.2M in her bank account.

AK attorney Joe Miller may not be thrilled with the NRSC, but the party committee is spending money to prove Miller's candidacy isn't doomed if he prevails over Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R).

A new survey conducted for the NRSC shows Miller leading Sitka Mayor Scott McAdams (D) by a 52%-36% margin. And other metrics in the Last Frontier skew the race heavily in Miller's favor, even after other surveys show he begins his race as an unpopular contender.

Fully 57% say they want a GOPer to provide a check and balance over Pres. Obama, while only 33% want a Dem to help pass the WH agenda. Obama's job approval ratings clock in at just 40%, while 53% disapprove.

The top of the ticket will benefit GOPers as well. Gov. Sean Parnell (R) has a wide lead over ex-state House Min. Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D), besting the Dem by a 54%-40% margin.

The survey was conducted Aug. 28-29 by Basswood Research and principal Jon Lerner, who has conducted surveys for Parnell's campaign. Lerner surveyed 400 likely voters for a margin of error of +/- 4.9%.

The GOP now holds a 10-point lead on Gallup's generic ballot, the largest advantage the party has sported in the poll in a midterm election year since Gallup began tracking the question in 1942.

GOPers lead Dems, 51% to 41%, among registered voters interviewed Aug. 23-29 as part of Gallup's daily tracking poll. This is the fifth consecutive week the GOP has led the generic ballot, and the wide gap points to "significant gains" this Nov. for the party, according to Gallup Editor-in-Chief Frank Newport.

Just last week, Dems had cut the GOP lead to 3 points. That was down from leads of 7 and 6 points the previous two weeks, respectively.

GOPers are also more excited about voting this year, with 50% describing themselves as "very enthusiastic." Just 25% of Dems say they're "very enthusiastic," and only 28% of indies match that excitement level.

Gallup surveyed 1,540 registered voters, for a margin of error of +/- 2.5%. Later this cycle, Gallup will start to screen voters for their vote likelihood. That screen, they report, has historically resulted in a further 3-point advantage for the GOP.

The DCCC is going up with its first independent expenditure ad of the cycle, targeting former Ashland Co. DA and "Real World" star Sean Duffy (R) in WI 07 for past statements supporting the privatization of Social Security.

Duffy is facing off against state Sen. Julie Lassa (D) for the seat vacated by retiring Rep. David Obey (D).

"Politicians like Sean Duffy just don't get it," the narrator says. "When we should be fighting to protect Social Security, Sean Duffy backed a plan to privatize it. Privatizing would cut the guaranteed benefit and gamble seniors retirement on the stock market."

The ad is another example of how Democrats believe Social Security will be a vulnerability for certain Republican candidates this year. Dems are highlighting aspects of Rep. Paul Ryan's proposed budget, which calls for privatizing Social Security.

WI 07 is considered a toss up race, and Dems are seeking to use their substantial financial advantage to assist Lassa. Duffy, who entered the race months before Obey announced his retirement, has raised twice the amount Lassa has banked. But this is the type of race where the DCCC's substantial CoH advantage over the NRCC -- - $35.8M to $22.1M -- comes in.

Once a master at controlling his message, Pres. Obama is trying to regain his footing on the most important issue of this -- and perhaps next -- election: The economy.

Several leading analysts believe the economy is continuing its downward spiral, hampering Dem hopes of maintaining their House and Senate majorities this fall. And the WH has also been focused on other issues -- from the mosque comments to Obama's speech on Iraq Tuesday night.

"If the economic trend line looks the same as it does now," said veteran Dem strategist Roy Temple, "it's an enormous political problem."

Increasingly, there is evidence that the economy is doing worse than anticipated. Fed Chairman Ben Bernanke indicated on Friday that the economy is not recovering as quickly as he would like. And on Sunday, the New York Times reported that the economy is not recovering and may not for quite some time. The Times also noted that policy remedies are a non-starter right now because spending more government funds would open up Dems to political attacks.

The economy, and Obama's lack of a laser-like focus on the issue, has given some Dems in competitive districts cause for concern. "The economy is the biggest issue for voters and for most candidates," said Maura Dougherty, a Dem consultant who represents a significant number of clients facing tough re-elections. "To have the White House talking about something else is not helpful."

Obama and the WH tried to get back on message Monday. In remarks from the Rose Garden, Obama said "it took nearly a decade to dig the hole that we're in" and it will "take longer than any of us would like to climb our way out."

"The fact is that too many businesses are still struggling," Obama added. "Too many Americans are still looking for work and too many communities are far from being whole again."

Obama also turned the blame back to Republicans for blocking a jobs bill currently under consideration in the Senate. "This bill has been languishing in the Senate for months," Obama said. "There is no reason to block it besides pure partisan politics."

The White House is also pointed to statistics that the economy has created private sector jobs for 7 months in a row, totaling 600K jobs. The admin is also pushing for extending the Bush tax cuts for the middle class.

But the deteriorating economy is giving Republicans plenty of political ammunition. Already a new catchphrase is cropping up about the economy: A lost decade. Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), a GOP leader on economic issues, used the phrase on Monday. Ryan also said Dem policies are reminiscent of the Japanese policies of the '90s.

"We are basically replicating the kinds of economics the Japanese did in the 1990s," Ryan said. "We are buying ourselves a lost decade"

Among Dems, concern is beginning to grow that the economy is not recovering as quickly as needed and some -- privately -- don't think the White House has a full grasp on the severity of the situation. "They got themselves handcuffed from day 1 by compromising on the stimulus," said one senior Dem strategist. "In an outsider, populist election, it would've been in much better strength if they had fought tooth and nail for economic help that they could've then contrasted with Republicans."

Three rising GOP stars are launching a critique of a their own party, while offering a new way forward, in a tome that reads more like a case for a new GOP leadership team than a party agenda.

In "Young Guns: A New Generation of Conservative Leaders," Reps. Eric Cantor (R-VA), Paul Ryan (R-WI), and Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) rip the old ways of their own party while promising a new direction for the GOP.

"We are a new generation of Republican leaders eager to put our past sins behind us," Cantor writes, of a party he says was "on the Bridge to Nowhere." "We got what we had coming."

Tellingly indicative of their vision of the future of the GOP, House Min. Leader John Boehner merits only 3 mentions in 191 pages. Pres. George W. Bush earns just 4 references, the same number as TN 08 candidate Stephen Fincher (R).

Each Young Gun gets a 3-chapter section to himself -- Cantor flagellating the GOP and promising a new way forward, Ryan offering policy prescriptions and McCarthy touting some of the candidates he's helped recruit as a top NRCC official.

Former Tucson City Councilman Rodney Glassman (D) has hired veteran Democratic political operative Bill Romjue as his new campaign manager as he seeks to unseat Sen. John McCain (R) of Arizona.

The move to Romjue comes amid ongoing reports of internal turmoil within Glassman's campaign, which has included the departures since July of some top-level aides. Romjue succeeds outgoing campaign manager Patrick Mellody, who the campaign said today has left to pursue "other opportunities."

Glassman won the Democratic nomination last Tuesday. But the one-time aide to Rep. Raul Grijalva (D-AZ), faces huge disadvantages in money and name identification against McCain, and early head-to-head polling indicates he trails the senator significantly

Romjue was most recently campaign manager for Andrew Romanoff, who was defeated in his campaign to defeat Sen. Michael Bennet in a Democratic primary in Colorado.

Romjue's previous political experience includes being a senior adviser to Joe Biden during his 2008 presidential campaign and other roles in a number of national or state campaigns, including those of Jimmy Carter and Bob Kerry. He also had served as chief of staff to House Majority Leader Dick Gephardt (D-MO). He was awarded a Bronze Star related to his service in the U.S. Army in Vietnam.

RNC chair Michael Steele is earning some frequent flier miles to outlying US territories in a trip that looks more like his own re-election bid than it does an effort to gain ground for the GOP this Election Day.

Steele has made recent trips to the U.S. Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico, where a spokesman said he held 5 fundraisers over a weekend. Next month, Steele will head to Guam and the Northern Marianas Islands for fundraisers on behalf of GOP candidates, after a swing to AZ, CA and HI.

To political observers, the trip might look superfluous. Delegates to Congress elected from the island territories cannot vote in Congress, and national parties rarely pay attention to territorial governors.

But to RNC insiders, the trip has a clear purpose: Setting Steele up for his own re-election bid next Jan.

Under RNC rules, each state and territory gets to send 3 voters -- a state chair, a national committeeman and a national committeewoman -- to party meetings. Each state has an equal number of votes, meaning the Virgin Islands and Guam have as many votes, combined, as TX and CA.

And one of the many factors RNC leaders have to contend with when counting votes is that the island delegates generally vote with each other. That's 15 of 168 votes, including members from Puerto Rico, the Virgin Islands, Guam, the Northern Mariana Islands and American Samoa.

In '09, those voters coalesced around Steele on the final ballot, when he faced ex-SC GOP chair Katon Dawson. Rumors flew that deals had been cut, though strategists close to Steele vehemently denied any promises had been made. Still, during Steele's tenure, the RNC has sent $20K to the Northern Mariana Islands, and 2 top staffers to Guam for party-building activities.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) will not be on the AK Libertarian Party ballot line this fall, according to the secretary of the party.

Murkowski, who is trailing GOP primary to challenger Joe Miller by 1,688 votes with about 23K ballots still to be counted, has reportedly been seeking another way onto the ballot this fall. The Libertarian Party was considered her best option.

Rob Clift, the state Libertarian Party's secretary, told Hotline On Call that the executive committee of the party met over the weekend. When asked if the decision to keep Murkowski off the ballot line was final, Clift said: "That's correct."

Interestingly, Clift also said Murkowski had not reached out to the party.

"To be honest, no one from her campaign nor she has approached us," Clift said.

Murkowski must now consider whether to run as a write-in candidate if she goes on to lose the GOP primary. That path would be significantly harder.

Updated, 12:02 p.m.

Sen. Richard Burr (R) is going up with the first ad of the North Carolina Senate race on Monday. The ad, which was provided to Hotline On Call is a positive spot and shows that the Burr campaign believes it is in the driver's seat in the against Secretary of State Elaine Marshall (D).

The ad has a down-home feel. "He's from down home North Carolina," the narrator says. "Home every weekend, listening, working for us."

It also focuses on government spending. "You see, Richard Burr is willing to cut spending, while others spend more," the narrator says, "He's tight with our tax dollars. Heck, that's just common sense."

It is worth noting that Burr is emphasizing the amount of time he spends in NC, inoculating himself to the charge is is always in DC. That line of attack seriously wounded Sen. Elizabeth Dole (R-NC) in '08 when she lost to Sen. Kay Hagan (D). Burr is also highlighting his NC schedule on his website.

Marshall's campaign rebutted the ad by playing up Burr's DC ties. "After 16 years in Washington, and support for measures like the bank bailout, Sen. Burr needs to shore up support with his disenchanted base," said Marshall spokesman Sam Swartz.

Earlier in cycle, Burr was considered vulnerable. Marshall has yet to gain traction in the race, though, and most consider this seat safely in the GOP column.

So far, Burr has purchased ad time for Aug. 30 through Sept. 12. He dished out $578K on the buy, according to a source that monitors ad buys. That breaks down to almost $213K in Charlotte, $66K in the Winston, $54K in New Bern, $70K in Asheville, $128K in Raleigh-Durham and $40K in Wilmington.

Marshall went up with an ad in the primary that touted her "guts to clean up the mess in Washington." She has yet to go up in the general election.

You can see Burr's ad after the jump.

Good Monday morning and welcome back to the Starting Lineup. What Hotline On Call is watching today: Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) has a very uphill fight against Sen. David Vitter, another NRCC candidate goes down to a Tea Party fave, DCCC sounds like it agrees with their GOP counterparts that 75 seats are in play and more.

Melancon's Moment: After Sen. David Vitter's landslide win in Saturday's GOP primary, the focus is now on Rep. Charlie Melancon's (D) bid to unseat him. The problem for Dems: Vitter's victory makes him look pretty invincible, despite his personal baggage. The DSCC had hyped numerous potential primary challenges to him, thinking his marital indiscretions and personal problems present an opportunity, but Chet Traylor's emphasis of them got him nowhere.

Note that only about a quarter of Louisiana voters are registered Republicans, and there's still a large pool of conservative Dems and indies that haven't rendered their judgment on Vitter yet. But it'll be interesting to see whether the DSCC truly believes Vitter is vulnerable and pours money into the race, of if they are bluffing to try to get the NRSC to spend there.

A Real Downer: Another top NRCC recruit is in position to lose in a primary, as Hunt Downer finished a distant second to Jeff Landry in the GOP primary for Melancon's district on Saturday. Landry barely missed making the 50% barrier to avoid a runoff, and Downer has vowed to continue his campaign. Downer's demise probably won't hurt the GOP's chances to take the seat -- it's one of their best pickup opportunities -- but it does signify another example if a Tea Party insurgent defeating a NRCC recruit. http://bit.ly/9XbYLC

75 Competitive House Districts? The DCCC and Organizing for America held a National Day of Action over the weekend that was overshadowed by Glenn Beck's rally in Washington, DC, in the national media. Once interesting tidbit that has gone unnoticed: The DCCC claims to have knocked on 200K doors in 75 competitive districts. 75? Is that an implied acknowledgment that NRCC recruitment chairman Kevin McCarthy's (R-CA) statement last week that there are 80 seats in play this year isn't far off the mark? http://bit.ly/aGFoTr 

Truth be told, both parties acknowledge that there's a massive field of House seats in play, and the Cook Political Report this week plans to add another 10 Dem-held seats to its most vulnerable categories, bringing the number of seats "at substantial risk" to nearly 80.

DC City Council Chair Vincent Gray (D) has a significant lead over Mayor Adrian Fenty (D) in the Sept. 14 mayoral primary, despite the fact that a majority of DC Dems think Fenty has brought needed change to the nation's capital, according to a new poll released today.

Gray leads Fenty, 49% to 36%, in the new poll, conducted for the Washington Post. Among those who say they're more likely to vote, Gray's lead expands to 53% to 36%.

Gray held a narrow lead among registered Dems, 35% to 31%, in a late Jan. WaPo poll.

A majority of DC residents, however, believe the city is headed in the right direction, while just 29% think the city is on the wrong track. Among Dems, 67% believe that Fenty "has brought needed change" to DC, with just 28% saying that he has not.

But Fenty scores lower on other personal measures. Dems are split, 45% to 45%, on whether the mayor understands the problems of people like them, and a plurality, 46%, says he isn't honest or trustworthy.

Gray, on the other hand, has a much more positive image. Among all registered voters, 60% view Gray favorably, while just 16% have an unfavorable impression of him.

Fenty's negatives are much higher. A slim majority, 51%, has a favorable view of Fenty, while 42% view the mayor unfavorably.

But Fenty's struggles are not for lack of trying. Asked which candidate is campaigning harder, more registered Dems chose Fenty, 44% to 27%. And fully half of Dems said they had been personally contacted by a representative of the Fenty camp, while just 30% said the Gray camp had contacted them.

Fenty has been up on the airwaves for more than a month with a series of TV ads, while Gray just hit the air this week with a mainly negative spot.

New Orleans-area Dems picked state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) to face freshman Rep. Joseph Cao (R-LA 02) in the fall, as Richmond avoided a runoff and throttled state Rep. Juan LaFonta (D) 60% to 21%.

Richmond -- who was endorsed by the DCCC -- prevailed despite a last-ditch effort to derail his candidacy by an outside org named Louisiana Truth PAC, a group founded by Dem donor/LaFonta supporter Stuart Smith.

According to the FEC, Louisiana Truth PAC contributed $64K toward a mail and TV ad campaign against Richmond. The PAC, which also purportedly aided other Dems in LA, began its anti-Richmond expenditures on 8/20, and recently began airing TV ads attacking him for participating in a bar fight and also for claiming "the state works for me." Another ad featured the author of a book on the 1927 New Orleans flood, who said flood protection is not Richmond's first priority.

Despite these attacks, Richmond had the support of the DCCC and much of the state's Dem hierarchy, including New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu (D). He also enjoyed a big financial edge over LaFonta -- he raised over $500K for the contest, while LaFonta raised just over $300K. In addition, Richmond had a 12-1 cash advantage over his challenger in the campaign's final weeks. So while LA Truth PAC provided LaFonta with a potential opening, it wasn't nearly enough to pull Richmond into a runoff.

Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) scored a comfortable victory in the Louisiana GOP primary on Saturday, and will be facing off against Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) in the general election.

With 29% of precincts reporting, the AP has called the race with Vitter leading GOP challenger Chet Traylor 87% to 8%.

Democrats celebrated when Traylor entered the race just before the filing deadline in early July, hoping he could damage Vitter's chances in the general election. Traylor vowed to attack Vitter over his marital indiscretions and personal problems and even aired a scathing radio ad.

But Traylor never seemed to get much traction, in large part due to his paltry fundraising. Vitter all but ignored Traylor, choosing instead to attack Melancon in a hard-hitting TV ad.

Vitter comes out of the primary as the frontrunner in the general election. Pres. Obama's poll numbers are low in Louisiana and the state is one of the most conservative-minded in the country. Democrats, however, still view Vitter as vulnerable because of his personal indiscretions, and think Melancon's centrist voting record is uniquely suited to make the race competitive.

Surprising no one, Gov. Joe Manchin (D) easily won the Democratic nomination in the West Virginia Senate primary on Saturday, and now goes on to face Republican John Raese in a special election that will take place on the same day as the general election.

With 24% of precincts reporting, the AP called the race with Manchin leading with 73%. Ex-Secretary of State and ex-Rep. Ken Hechler came in second with 17% and ex-Del. Sheirl Fletcher finished third with 10% of the vote.

On the GOP side, the AP called the race with 24% of precincts reporting. Raese won 72% of the vote and developer Mac Warner came in second with 15%.

The election caps a very short primary season, which began several weeks after Sen. Robert Byrd (D) passed away on June 28. Manchin has kept his head down, concentrating on raising money and declining opportunities to engage with his primary opponents. Manchin's last FEC report showed nearly $383K CoH. While the FEC filing showed Raese with just under $10K, he has showed a willingness to spend significant chunks of his personal fortune on past races, and is expected to do so this fall as well.

Although Manchin and Raese were heavily favored to move on to the general election, the two haven't begun to aggressively attack each other. That should change soon. Raese has left clues -- particularly in his first ad -- as to what his strategy will be: tie the popular Manchin to the unpopular DC Dems, and try to sell West Virginians on the idea that Manchin will be, at the end of the day, just another vote for Pres. Obama in the Senate.

Lansing Mayor Virg Bernero (D) did for himself exactly what venture capitalist Rick Snyder (R) did with his pick for LG: select someone that helps solidify the base.

Bernero announced on Twitter this morning that he chose Southfield Mayor Brenda Lawrence (D) to be his running mate, giving him an African-American female with executive experience from southeast Michigan to bolster his image as an outsider.

Lawrence's arrival on the ticket counters Snyder's selection of state Rep. Brian Calley, someone with legislative experience within the state. Bernero introduced her to state Dems this morning at the party's convention one day after the Detroit News first learned of his selection.

Convention delegates for both the GOP and Democrats this weekend will likely be delighted with their candidates' choices. Calley is a 33-year-old pro-life conservative with a reputation for being well-liked and easy to work with in the state legislature's lower chamber.

Lawrence grew up in Detroit and became the first woman and first African American to serve as Southfield mayor when she was elected in 2001, according to her official biography. She will be the only non-white member of the statewide Dem ticket this fall. Lawrence is also labor-friendly, especially toward auto workers, which is a centerpiece of Bernero's own campaign rhetoric.

By picking Lawrence, Bernero is essentially doubling-down on the idea that an unabashedly progressive ticket can win in the Wolverine State this year at a time when Republicans are ascendant and Gov. Jennifer Granholm' approval has hit rock-bottom.

Expect Snyder to continue courting Independents and former backers of moderate state House Speaker Andy Dillon (D) while Bernero attempts to maximize Democratic turnout with a big assist from organized labor.

Observers can expect Snyder to hone the message that he is not beholden to outside interest groups while painting Bernero as a tool for labor, something Bernero's already begun to counter. "I'm a Democrat who understands there is no labor without business," Bernero said earlier this month.

What we at The Hotline learned this week, just 9 weeks before Election Day:

-- Even if you're polling well against a primary challenger -- and even if you've raised more, and that challenger is an obscure candidate -- this is just not a year to take anything for granted. Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) is holding onto her political life by a thread, trailing the tea party favorite, attorney Joe Miller (R), as AK continues to count absentee ballots. It seems Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) had a better strategy: Treat your challenger as a serious threat and fight like your seat depends on it. Murkowski started to do battle towards the end, but it looks like it may have been too little, too late.

-- Maybe it's really only an anti-incumbent year on the GOP side, after Rick Scott won the FL GOV race. But even that has exceptions, given McCain's big win. Dems seem perfectly fine with their establishment in primaries (see: Meek, Bennet, Giannoulias, Fisher, Malloy, etc.).

-- Scott battled with the RGA and the FL GOP, but he's made peace with the establishment very quickly in the last week. Funny how that works when the outsider is willing to put millions into his own bid. If only Dan Maes, the CO GOV nominee who is still feuding with the state party, had his own bank account to tap.

Sen. Richard Lugar (R-IN), one of the elder statesmen of the GOP, said Friday that House Min. Leader John Boehner's (R-OH) speech on the economy this week didn't offer enough specifics about where Republicans want to take the country.

In a C-SPAN "Newsmakers" interview, Lugar said Boehner's speech was more focused on politics than policy.

Boehner's speech "did not indicate too many thoughts about the future," Lugar said. "It was much more centered, I think, on the rather polarized political situation currently."

Lugar isn't the only Republican who has been critical of the GOP for not offering specific political plans. Earlier this week, VA Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) told Hotline On Call that he would like to see more details from the GOP.

Lugar also said that he has continued to urge IN Gov. Mitch Daniels (R) to run for president but wouldn't reveal where Daniels stands on the question.

"I had a good conversation with him in Indiana just a week or so ago," Lugar said. "He has made no commitment...I have encouraged him to run. I think that he would be an outstanding candidate and a great president."

Both parties have serious pickup opportunities in LA House contests, so there will be a lot at stake in tomorrow's contests. Here's a quick preview of two of the biggest races in the state:

LA-02

Dems believe Rep. Anh "Joseph" Cao (R) is extremely vulnerable in his New Orleans-based CD, and count him as one of the few GOP incumbents they will seriously target this fall. In order to help that effort along, the DCCC endorsed state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D) over his main challenger, state Rep. Juan LaFonta (R), and added him to the committee's "Red-to-Blue" list.

Richmond has everything going his way in the primary, including support from New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu (D), the Cong. Black Caucus PAC and ex-Sen. John Breaux (D). He's also raised $500K for the race, more than LaFonta's $300K. A late-June poll for Richmond's camp showed him sporting a 4-1 lead over LaFonta, and it's hard to imagine anything happening since then to change the dynamics of the race.

With all of those factors, Richmond is the heavy favorite in the primary. If he does get through to face Cao, GOPers believe they're in decent shape to hold the seat. A poll from late-May released by Cao's camp shows the GOPer with a 51-26% lead over Richmond. In this heavily African-American CD -- one that gave Barack Obama 75% in '08 -- GOPers concede this race will undoubtedly even up but believe Cao has a chance to hold on.

Dems, meanwhile, believe Cao has been forced to take very tough votes in the House, including voting against the health care overhaul, that will hurt him in this CD. Cao may start with the early advantage, but the dynamics of the CD will help move this much closer to the toss up category heading into Election Day.

LA-03

Dems believe they have a good shot at picking up Cao's seat, but GOPers have an even better shot at picking up retiring Rep. Charlie Melancon's (D) CD, a historically Dem seat that has moved heavily to the GOP in recent cycles. John McCain took 61% there in '08.

A majority of this weekends Sunday shows will focus on the 5th anniversary of Hurricane Katrina. "This Week" will dive into the education debate, while "Face The Nation" will zero in on the midterms and the Tea Party. Also, CSPAN will carry FNC's Glenn Beck's "Restoring Honor" rally starting at 10 am ET. And Brian Williams will have an exclusive interview with President Obama in New Orleans on Sunday's "Nightly News." Williams anchors live from New Orleans.

Sunday

Meet the Press (w/ guest moderator Brian Williams) hosts actors Brad Pitt and Wendell Pierce, Sen. Mary Landrieu (D-LA), New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu, WWL-Radio New Orleans' Garland Robinette and Rice Univ. prof. Douglas Brinkley.

Face the Nation hosts Atty Joe Miller (R-AK), Reps. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) and Debbie Wasserman Schultz (D-FL) and RGA chair Haley Barbour (MS).

This Week hosts Ed Sec. Arne Duncan, AFT Pres. Randi Weingarten, D.C. Public Schools Chancellor Michelle Rhee and Chef Jaime Oliver.

Fox News Sunday hosts FNC's Glenn Beck and Prince George Hospital's Carnell Cooper, M.D..

State of the Union hosts HUD Sec. Shaun Donovan, FL Gov. Charlie Crist (I) and Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL).

Other Weekend Shows

Updated 2:30 pm

Gov. Charlie Crist (I) said on Central Florida News 13 TV Friday that he "would have voted for" the health care reform bill, contradicting numerous previous statements including a pledge to lead the fight to repeal the law.

"I think what we need to do is go ahead and repeal this thing," said Crist, while on "Fox News Sunday" on March 28. "Let's start over. Let's take an opportunity to do what's right for the people."

After switching parties, Crist softened his rhetoric on the issue. In a July 14 interview with the Wall Street Journal, he said the law "should be modified," and didn't support repealing it.

He then issued a "fact check" on his website on July 29, after people were understandably confused about where he stood on the issue.

"The Obama health care bill was too big, too expensive, and expanded the role of government far too much," Crist wrote. "Had I been in the United States Senate at the time, I would have voted against the bill because of unacceptable provisions like the cuts to the Medicare Advantage program."

NBC announced Friday that "Meet The Press" will again be featuring this fall's most competitive U.S. Senate races in the "Senate Debate Series." The debates will be moderated by David Gregory and will be aired live from NBC studios in Washington D.C.

The series kicks off over Labor Day weekend with Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) and ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) squaring off. Independent candidate Charlie Crist was invited to participate but has not yet committed to appearing.

Following the Florida debate, the following debates have been scheduled:

IL: State Treas. Alexi Giannoulias (D) vs. Rep. Mark Kirk (R) on 10/10.
CO: Sen. Michael Bennet (D) vs. Weld Co. DA Ken Buck (R) on 10/17.

More Senate debates are expected to be announced soon.

"If we decide to do this it will advance the Party and believe me we won't do this for nothing."

-- AK Libertarian Party chair Scott Kohlhaas, on the prospects of Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) running on the party's line if she doesn't win the GOP nod, to The Daily Caller.

Realtor David Haase won the Libertarian Party primary on 8/24. Haase would have to step down and the state executive committee would have to vote Murkowski in for her to get on the Nov. ballot.

DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen signaled Friday that former Pres. George W. Bush will be a key player in the Democratic playbook for retaining their House majorities this fall.

In remarks at the National Press Club, Van Hollen emphasized that Dems will present this election to voters as a choice between moving the country forward and reverting to Bush's economic policies. And a big part of that strategy is showing that the current crop of Republican leaders want to impose the same policies as Bush.

The Bush administration, Van Hollen said, is "still fresh" in voters' minds. If you listen to Republicans, he went on, "they are telling us very clearly that they would enact the same agenda going forward."

Van Hollen then pointed to recent Republican positions that appear to be the foundation of upcoming Dem attacks: Repealing Wall Street reform and reversing the remaining elements of the stimulus package. That, he said, "would reverse the budding growth" in the economy and "throw a lot of people out of work."

In order to make the connection between the Bush policies of the past the GOP plans for the future, Van Hollen also devoted a significant amount of time to House Min. Leader John Boehner's remarks on the economy earlier this week.

Van Hollen also brushed aside the growing number of stories suggesting that Dems will lose the House this fall. Those stories, he said, are DC chatter and don't reflect what he believes is going on locally in districts. "Reports of the House Democrats demise are greatly exaggerated," he said.

There are 3 reasons why Dems will hold onto the House, according to Van Hollen. First, he said Americans will remember the Republicans for their stewardship of the economy before Obama was elected. Second, he argued contested primaries and the Tea Party have produced GOP nominees that are too far to the right for moderate districts. Van Hollen specifically pointed to Jesse Kelly in AZ 08, who will face Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) this fall. Third, he said that Dems have been preparing for a tough election this year since the end of the last cycle.

Van Hollen also drew a difference between the '94 wave election when the GOP captured the House. In '94, voters viewed Republicans as a viable alternative to Dems. That's not the case this year, he said, pointing to polling showing a damaged GOP brand.

Van Hollen also laid out 4 GOP-held seats that he believes Dems will pick up: IL 10, where Dan Seals (D) is seeking Sen. candidate Mark Kirk's seat; HI 01, where Colleen Hanabusa is looking to avenge Rep. Charles Djou's special election win earlier this year; LA 02, where GOP Rep. Joseph Cao is sitting in a very Dem leaning district; and DE AL, where Dems think ex-Lt.Gov. John Carney will pick up the seat vacated by Rep. Mike Castle (R) to run for the Senate.

West Virginians will head to the polls Saturday, capping by far the shortest primary season in any state this year.

When the Sen. Robert Byrd (D) passed away in June, state law required Gov. Joe Manchin (D) to nominate someone to the seat for the remaining two years of Byrd's term. But calls to have an election sooner prompted the government to investigate whether there was a way for a special election to be called for this year.

Manchin nominated his ex-counsel Carte Goodwin (D) to temporarily fill the Senate seat. And after much deliberation, on 7/19 the state legislature reached an agreement for the primary election to take place on Saturday, and the special election to occur in conjunction with the midterms. Candidates were given just four days to file for the race.

As expected, Manchin quickly announced his candidacy. Former Del. Sheirl Fletcher jumped into the Dem primary too, as did 95-year-old former Secretary of State Ken Hechler, an environmentalist who vowed to run solely to bring attention to the issue of mountaintop removal.

GOPers' prospects took a hit when Rep. Shelley Moore Capito decided to run for re-election to her House seat rather than enter the race. But '06 nominee John Raese (R), who could finance his own run, leapt into the void and immediately became the GOP frontrunner. Nine other GOPers entered the race, though former '10 congressional candidate Mac Warner (R) is generally considered the other viable candidate in the primary. Rounding out the field is a perennial candidate Jesse Johnson.

Manchin's 13 competitors have debated and talked to newspaper boards, but Manchin has declined to participate in any of these events -- a decision that has irked some of his opponents. Instead, Manchin has used the short primary season to focus on raising funds for the general election.

Sen. David Vitter (R) is expected to cruise past former Supreme Court Justice Chet Traylor (R) this weekend in Louisiana's GOP primary on his way to the general election against Democratic Rep. Charlie Melancon.

Vitter went most of the year without serious primary competition, but when Traylor entered the primary right before filing closed on July 9th, some thought he might have a chance against the embattled incumbent. Vitter was considered to be vulnerable against a credible "values" GOPer, given his marital indiscretions and personal problems. But Traylor's late entry, weak fundraising, and his own troubled past soon diminished Democratic hopes of a knock-down, drag-out GOP fight ahead in the primary. Vitter's powerhouse money figures and powerful messaging operation also dimmed Traylor's candidacy.

Vitter ignored Traylor's insurgent bid, focusing his campaign on assumed future opponent Melancon. His one and only TV ad ahead of the primary attacked Melancon on using taxpayer money "to get himself a luxury SUV." Melancon fired back in his own ad, targeting women voters who might be turned off by Vitter's past.

Traylor also attempted to capitalize on the same issue, releasing an inflammatory radio ad across LA accusing Vitter of lacking "family values." But his efforts appear to have failed, as Vitter is expected to trounce Traylor tomorrow in what will be a very low turnout election.

Good Friday Morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. What Hotline On Call is watching today: DCCC Chairman Chris Van Hollen makes the Dem case, NV wants new Senate nominees, voters head to the polls in Louisiana and it's getting nasty in New Mexico.

Chris Van Hollen: The DCCC chairman will hold a briefing this morning at the National Press Club. Look for Van Hollen (MD) to tout the Dem GOTV advantage and this weekend's "National Day of Action," where volunteers are planning to knock on 200K doors.

Van Hollen will also be pressed to respond to some troubling signs for Dems. The American Action Forum polls out yesterday showed some Dems -- such as Rep. John Boccieri (OH) -- believed to be competitive this year in real trouble. He'll also be using Minority Leader John Boehner's speech this week to contrast the Republicans' agenda with Democratic economic policies.

There has been a healthy amount of optimism on both sides of the aisle recently: Dems are sounding a confident note that they can retain the House and Republicans are equally confident they'll take it back. "We see the tide turning," NRCC recruitment chairman Kevin McCarthy (CA) said Thursday. McCarthy believes his candidates are competitive in 80 districts, double the number (39) needed to take back the House. http://bit.ly/9oGjxB

Now That's Some Discontent: Nevada voters wish they had other candidates running for the Senate this year, according to a Las Vegas Review-Journal poll out today. When asked if they would prefer another candidate on the Dem side other than Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid, 49% said they would. It's even worse for GOP nominee Sharron Angle: 68% said they would prefer another Republican.

That's good news for Reid who looked like one of the most vulnerable incumbents not long ago. He still has cause for concern -- the poll shows Reid leading Angle by just a point - 45% to 44%. http://bit.ly/al0BC1

David Vitter: Primaries on Saturday?! Louisiana heads to the polls tomorrow, and all eyes will be on David Vitter (R-LA). Vitter is locked in a primary against Chet Traylor, who has been more than willing to attack Vitter on personal terms. The attacks haven't stuck at all: Vitter held a whopping 76 (!) point lead in this week's PPP poll. With the GOP base fully behind him, he looks like the solid favorite against Rep. Charlie Melancon (D) in the general. http://bit.ly/9iTPHW

LA House: There will be some exciting House races in Louisiana. Dems need to defeat Rep. Joseph Cao (R) to have a shot at holding the House, and they will be nominating his challenger Saturday. The frontrunner is state Rep. Cedric Richmond (D), running in a crowded primary. On the flip side, GOPers are in strong position to pick up the seat that Melancon is vacating. The GOP primary between House Speaker Hunt Downer and Jeff Landry could be close.

Stay tuned to Hotline On Call today for previews of the races.

The Tea Party Senate: The DSCC is up with a new website today labeling anti-establishment Republican nominees the "GOP's 2010 Tea Party Set." It's part of the committee's strategy to brand the following GOPers as "extreme:" Rand Paul (KY), Sharron Angle (NV), Ken Buck (CO), Marco Rubio (FL), Joe Miller (AK) and Ron Johnson (WI).

The flip-side to the DSCC argument: Paul, Buck, Rubio, Miller and Johnson have all led in recent polls, with Angle running neck-and-neck with Reid. We could see an awfully conservative and unpredictable Republican caucus come 2011 in the Senate.

Getting Nasty In NM: NM GOV nominee Susana Martinez (R) is the target of the DGA's latest ad, which ties her to scandal plagued GOPers. The ad accuses Martinez of using $350K of taxpayer money to pay "special bonuses for insiders" and calls it "another political scandal." On the screen with Martinez: ex. Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX), ex-lobbyist Jack Abramoff, ex-IL Gov. Rod Blagojevich (D), Sen. David Vitter (R-LA), and others. The ad is a signal that this race is going to be very negative: Martinez has already been trying to tie her opponent, Lt. Gov. Diane Denish (D), to scandals in Gov. Bill Richardson's administration.

What else are you watching today? The comments section awaits below.

New polls showing Midwestern House Dems in trouble has some GOPers wondering whether the outside groups spending millions on their behalf aren't missing the golden opportunity to take back the House.

-- The American Action Network, which released the new polls, and Americans for Prosperity are pouring millions into the effort to take back the House. And American Crossroads chair Mike Duncan told The Hotline his group will play in a few House contests and build a GOTV operation -- something that's suffered as the RNC struggles with money.

-- But most outside groups are focusing on the sexier target -- the Senate. The myriad groups running ads for GOP candidates or against Dems have spent the bulk of their money, time and energy on the less winnable upper chamber. One would think the opportunity to retire Speaker Pelosi would be too tantalizing to pass up, but so far priorities lie elsewhere.

-- Outside groups have proven their ability to drive the conversation, whether through AAN's House polls, AC's Senate survey or heavy ad spending from the lot of 'em. And they're putting Dems on defense at a time when Dems' traditional advantage among outside groups is waning.

By the way, has anyone noticed how closely so many of these groups are tied, whether directly or indirectly, to MS Gov. Haley Barbour? We're just saying.

Jeremy previewed the American Action Network Midwestern House polls earlier today, and poring deep inside the numbers, they paint a troubling picture for Democratic House prospects this fall.

All the usual cautionary warnings about partisan polls should be heeded, but these numbers are comparable with other independent polls we've seen, and sound consistent with what we've been hearing from Dem strategists involved in many of the campaigns, who are very worried about the prospects of their clients.

Some of the under-the-radar highlights:

Boccieri looks like a goner. It's rare to see polling numbers this poor for a non-scandal plagued Democrat representing a competitive House district. Only 26 percent lean toward re-electing the freshman congressman, with a whopping 58 percent (!) saying he doesn't deserve another term. And there's as much intense opposition to Obama's health care reform package in Boccieri's district as in some of the reddest districts in the country -- 48 percent "strongly oppose" with 59 percent opposing overall

Bocierri delivered one of the Democrats' crucial votes for health care reform, flipping from opposing the bill to supporting it. That's costing him back home: 59 percent say they are less likely to oppose him because of that vote.

Democrats view Boccieri's opponent Jim Renacci (a used car dealer!) as seriously flawed, with allegations of unpaid taxes and bad corporate stewardship already hitting the airwaves, with more to come. It's clear Renacci is far from an ideal candidate. But if Boccieri's own numbers are this weak, it's difficult to see his path to victory.

A Kilroy comeback? The one Democrat viewed as a likely loser who might have some fight left in her is Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH). That's because her Democratic-trending Columbus district doesn't view Obama and the administration's policies as unfavorably as many other Democrats holding tough seats.

Is Florida Rep. Alan Grayson one of the most outspoken Democrats in the House, known for his bombastic rants on the House floor and cable news appearances? You wouldn't know it from his latest campaign ad.

The ad is a testimonial on Grayson's work for Florida schools and makes Grayson look, well, angelic. In fact, it may be the most positive ad Hotline On Call has seen so far.

It begins as a testimonial. "My Congressman, Alan Grayson, he saved our school," says one woman.

"My 5 children go to public school right here in Orlando. I fought for $200 million to save our schools for them and for all of us." Grayson, wearing an American flag necktie, says.

Kids then chant, "Alan Grayson saved our schools," and the camera pans to Grayson, smiling, holding two kids.

You can't make this stuff up. Remember it was Grayson who has lambasted House Republicans and said their health care plan was for people to "die quickly." He has also frequently attacked Republican leaders in numerous cable news appearances.

Grayson is locked in a tough fight for re-election against ex-state Sen. Daniel Webster (R) in FL 08. The Cook Political Report rates the race as as a toss up, but Grayson has been one of the best Dem fundraisers this cycle -- raising money from national liberal donors because of his outspokenness.

Rep. Bobby Bright (D-AL), one of the most vulnerable Dems in the House, has come up with a new way of distancing himself from House Speaker Nancy Pelosi: Joking that Pelosi could die in the coming months and be unable to serve as Speaker next year.

Appearing at a Chamber of Commerce event in Montgomery, AL, Bright said -- in jest, he insisted -- that there is the possibility that Pelosi loses re-election and can't be Speaker next year. He then went one step farther, saying that Pelosi could die before the next Congress comes into session. The remarks were reported by the Montgomery Advertiser.

The remarks signal how quickly conservative Dems are running away from Pelosi and fear being tied to her on the campaign trail this year. Last week, Rep. Joe Donnelly (D), who is in a competitive race in Indiana, aired an ad that stated he "voted against Nancy Pelosi's energy tax."

Republicans immediately jumped on the remarks. "Bobby Bright's comments -- even if made in jest -- are indefensible," said Andy Sere, a spokesman for the NRCC. "The congressman was wrong to support Pelosi for speaker, wrong to vote with her 71% of the time and wrong to oppose repealing her health care takeover, but trying to cover up that record by perversely predicting her imminent death is even worse."

A call to the Bright campaign was not immediately returned.

Bright is currently locked in a neck and neck race with Montgomery Councilor and establishment favorite Martha Roby (R).

Good Thursday morning and welcome to the Starting Lineup. What Hotline On Call is watching this morning: Obama's struggles in PA, lots of worrisome number for Midwestern House Democrats, Trumka rips Palin, and Democrats keep up the drumbeat against David Rivera.

Obama's PA Struggles: A new Franklin & Marshall poll out this morning shows Pres. Obama's numbers in Pennsylvania continuing to slide into dangerous territory. The survey finds that 35% of respondents -- a new high -- think Obama is doing a "poor" job as president. Only nine percent say Obama is doing an "excellent" job.

If Obama's numbers stay this low, Dems will be in big trouble in the Keystone State this fall. And the state is pivotal for Dem hopes in both the House and Senate. It's hard to see how Rep. Joe Sestak (D) wins his Senate match up against ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R) if Obama remains so unpopular. On the House side, there are - count 'em - eight Democratic-held seats that Republicans are aggressively contesting. Democrats think they have a shot at defeating Rep. Charlie Dent (D, but it's hard to see how they are successful if the Obama brand is in the toilet.

Midwest Dems Under Siege: The conservative American Action Forum is out with a slate of Midwest polls today, and the news isn't too good for Dems. The group surveyed voters in IA 03, IN 02, MI 07, MO 03, OH 01, OH 15, OH 16, and WI 08. Some key findings: When the individual polls are taken together, the 54% of respondents say they want a new member of Congress, while only 35% said their current Congressman deserves re-election. Also troubling: Pres. Obama is viewed unfavorably by 49% of voters in these districts and only 44% view him favorably.

Keep in mind this is a Republican-sponsored poll, but one consistent with public polling across the country. Democrats privately pushed back against the group's polling last week, questioning the polls methodology and saying they were too focused on broad, national issues and not enough on local ones.

We can break down the polls into three categories: Looks good for GOPers, looks good for Dems and a toss up (based on the numbers). Reps. Leonard Boswell (D-IA), Mary Jo Kilroy (D-OH), John Boccieri (D-OH), Mark Schauer (D-MI) and Steve Kagen (D-WI) look to be in deep trouble, based on the polling. But Rep. Russ Carnahan (D-MO 03) is in credible shape, while Ohio Reps. Steve Driehaus and Betty Sutton in toss-up territory.

The big surprise in this group is WI 08, where Kagen trails Reid Ribble (R) by 10%. Kagen hasn't been on many target lists this year, and the Republican primary isn't until next month.

Dems may take solace in OH 01, however, where Rep. Steve Driehaus (D) trails ex-Rep. Steve Chabot by only two percent. Driehaus has been considered a goner by many analysts

Check out the head to head breakdowns of the polls at the end of the Starting Lineup.http://bit.ly/9NsBpP

Trumka: AFL-CIO Pres. Richard Trumka is going to lay into former AK Gov. Sarah Palin today, and he's going to do it on her home turf in Alaska. "She used to have a job, your governor. You knew her, or thought you did. I know I thought I did," Trumka will say at the AFL-CIO convention in Anchorage. "She seemed like a decent person, an outdoors woman. Her husband's a steelworker. She seemed to take some OK stands for working families.

"And then things got weird. After she tied herself to John McCain and they lost, she blew off Alaska. I guess she figured she'd trade up, shoot for a national stage. Alaska was too far from the FOX TV spotlight."

And Trumka goes on: "The Mama Grizzlies, Sarah Palin says, just sense when something's not right. Well. I wonder if those Mama Grizzlies can sense something's just not right with her."

House Dems: Hotline On Call wrote on Wednesday that a clear strategy is emerging from House Dem incumbents: Go negative early. Dems are keeping up that strategy today, as the Florida Democratic Party launches TheRealRivera.com, a site dedicated to flawed GOP candidate David Rivera. Dems have been relentless in going after Rivera, who faces '08 Dem nominee Joe Garcia in FL 25. Some Dems view this as a definite pick up opportunity, which means the GOP will have to take another Dem held seat in order to inch closer to a majority. http://bit.ly/dolHqT, http://bit.ly/b6hgfJ

Must Reads: Hotline Editor in Chief Reid Wilson has two stories you don't want to miss. First, Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R), who appears to have lost the GOP nomination in her re-election bid on Tuesday to Joe Miller, held an ad that evoked the late Sen. and AK icon Ted Stevens (R). In his column today, And in his column today, Wilson argues why Dems won't lose the House this fall. http://bit.ly/amAvfr, http://bit.ly/9qaA9j

What else are you watching today? The comments section awaits below. Also be sure to check out those head to head numbers from the American Action Forum polls after the jump.

Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R-AK) did not broadcast a closing argument ad in her tight re-nomination bid because the star -- a man named Alaskan of the Century -- passed away just days before the election.

The campaign had enlisted former Sen. Ted Stevens to film a full-throated endorsement of Murkowski's bid for another term, according to a Republican who has seen the shelved ad. But just before it was scheduled to begin airing, a plane carrying Stevens and 8 others crashed on Aug. 9 in the Alaskan bush, killing Stevens and 4 more passengers.

The ad was meant as a closing argument intent on sealing the deal for Murkowski, featuring Stevens direct to camera offering his support and touting her accomplishments in office. The campaign was already airing a radio version of a Stevens endorsement, but that spot was pulled after the tragedy.

"I will quote my boss: Ted was Alaska," said Steve Wackowski, a spokesman for Murkowski's campaign, in an email late Wednesday. He did not elaborate.

Murkowski now trails attorney Joe Miller (R), who earned endorsements from ex-Gov. Sarah Palin and the Tea Party Express, by just 1,960 votes out of about 90,000 cast. Up to 8,400 absentee ballots remain to be counted. That count will not happen until Tuesday at the earliest.

Welcome back to our new feature on Hotline on Call: Path To Victory. On Tuesday, we looked at the playbook of Dino Rossi as he tries to unseat Sen. Patty Murray (D) in what will be one of the most competitive Senate races this year.

Today, we'll look at Murray's plan. While many prognosticators consider Murray one of the most vulnerable incumbents this cycle, a survey of strategists and operatives in WA found a distinct confidence among Dems.

Got Nowhere To Go But Up: The results of last week's primary -- which some considered a sure sign that Murray is in real trouble -- appear to be the biggest source of confidence among Dems. Murray pulled 46.2% while the 6 GOPers earned nearly 49.9% combined.

Dems argue that Republican number is far to low considering the GOP had a contested primary. There was virtually no reason for a Dem to go to the polls for Murray -- who had a lock on the nomination -- and every reason for a GOPer to turnout to select a nominee, the Dem reasoning goes. Dems believe Rossi should be worried the combined GOP vote last week didn't break 50%.

There is precedent that supports the Dem optimism on this front. In '98, Murray earned 45.9% in the primary while Republicans pulled 50.3%, most of which was split between then Rep. Linda Smith (32.3%) and King County Prosecutor Chris Bayley (14.9%). Murray went on to trounce Smith in the general, 58.4% to 41.6%. That represents a +10% boost for Dems and a -8.7% drop for the GOP in only two months.

The DC Board of Elections and Ethics on Wednesday denied a request made by Mayor Adrian Fenty (D) to allow unaffiliated voters to participate in the Sept. 14 Dem primary if they became Dems on that day, dealing a blow to Fenty's re-election chances.

Fenty is facing City Council Chair Vincent Gray (D) in the Dem primary, but because more than 75% of registered voters are Dems (as of '08), the winner of the primary is virtually assured of being elected mayor in the Nov. 2 general election.

The Fenty camp had asked the board to allow voters who hadn't registered with a party to do so on the day of the primary. Recent changes to DC election laws allow for same-day registration in the primary for those who aren't registered to vote at all.

On Aug. 12, a Thursday, the board had adopted regulations to deal with the new law to clarify that unaffiliated voters would not be able to change their registration after Monday, Aug. 16. The Fenty camp argued that the two business days allotted by the board was insufficient.

State Senate Pres. Pro Tem Peter Shumlin (D) appears to have won the VT-GOV Dem primary and is declaring victory in the drawn-out race. According to a posting on the Rutland Herald Web site, Shumlin had a 178 vote advantage over second-place finisher state Sen. Doug Racine (D). Meanwhile, Sec/State Deb Markowitz (D) trailed in third place, 390 votes behind Shumlin.

The AP reported that Shumlin said around noon, "It appears that we have won."

Shumlin earned 18,244 votes (25%) to Racine's 18,066 (24.7%) and Markowitz's 17,854 (24.4%). There are no run-off elections in VT as a plurality is all that is needed to win but trailing candidates can ask for recounts if the winner's margin of victory is less than 2%. This would allow both Racine and Markowitz to challenge the results. Ex-state Sen. Matt Dunne's (D) tally of 15,100 votes puts him at 20.7% of the vote, 2.3% shy of the 2% threshold.

In the latest installment of Hotline TV, Reid Wilson and Josh Kraushaar debate whether recent GOP candidates are too conservative. Could they cost the party seats in the midterms?

Virginia Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) has some advice for Republicans going into the midterms: Offer more specifics.

McDonnell told Hotline On Call on Wednesday that he hasn't seen the level of detail in national proposals as he campaigned on in '09.

"I haven't heard as much as I would like," McDonnell said when asked about specifics in the GOP platform.

McDonnell qualified his remarks by noting that he believes the House leadership will release more detailed policy proposals in the near future. He also praised House Min. Leader John Boehner, Min. Whip Eric Cantor and Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI) for developing proposals that "haven't gotten much coverage or air time."

McDonnell was swept into office in '09 with a 17-point margin of victory over Dem Creigh Deeds. During the campaign, McDonnell emphasized policy proposals, releasing detailed blueprints on many issues. He has urged House Republicans to do the same.

Lame-duck MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty (R) has a reputation to protect as a fiscal hawk as he eyes the '12 presidential race, but he's drawing fire from all sides in the MN GOV race to over what his critics say is an ineffective and wasteful program on the state level. In a debate yesterday, all three candidates took aim at the Job Opportunity Building Zone (JOBZ) initiative that provides tax incentives to firms who located in economically distressed areas.

"It's this attitude that government creates jobs. Government doesn't create jobs. Government gets in the way," Tom Emmer, the Republican vying to replace Pawlenty, said about the program. "I'm just a guy from Delano. ... Trust the people, the marketplace. Get government the heck out of the way."

GOV hopefuls Mark Dayton (D) and Tom Horner (IP) also took issue with the program and its management. And an AP analysis points out that it was MN Democrats that wanted to the scuttle the spending program, while Pawlenty defended it.

In addition to charges about his financial record as governor, Pawlenty is getting more calls at the state level to accept the $263M appropriated by Congress for MN. The stimulus money passed by congressional Dems has other possible '12 candidates in a bind, but Govs. Mitch Daniels (R-IN) and Haley Barbour (R-MS) ultimately decided to accept the money. Doctors and legislative leaders are asking Pawlenty to accept the money.

Weld Co. DA Ken Buck (R) holds an early lead over Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO), according to the first live-call poll taken after the Aug. 10 primary.

Buck has support from 49% of likely voters, according to the Reuters/Ipsos poll, while 40% back Bennet. Still, 54% of the state's registered independent voters say they are undecided, with Bennet leading among that group by a 27%-17% margin. Among all registered voters, Buck leads Bennet 44%-40%.

Buck's early lead is evidence of an enthusiasm gap that has registered GOP voters much more likely to turn out than registered Dems. Fully 76% of GOPers said they were completely certain to turn out, while 59% of Dems said the same.

That enthusiasm gap is also hurting other Dem candidates, even those most likely to win. Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D) is running even with businessman Dan Maes (R) among likely voters at 45% each, assuming a 2-way race.

As we turn toward the general election, Democrats are revealing a key component of their strategy for trying to retain their House majority: Going negative.

Already, there are 8 incumbent House Dems who have gone on the air with negative ads against their GOP opponents. The ads show that Dems -- and the DCCC -- view these next few weeks as critical. They want to define -- or smear, depending on how you look at it -- their Republican opponents immediately after they emerge from their primaries.

For Republicans, the ads highlight a tenuous position. These next few weeks will show whether GOP nominees with depleted resources following competitive primaries can keep control over their images while under fire.

Most recently, Reps. Gabrielle Giffords (D-AZ) and Ron Klein (D-FL) went up with ads on Wednesday, the day after their opponents -- Jesse Kelly and Allen West, respectively -- emerged from Republican primaries. Giffords' ad hits Kelly hard over previous statements on phasing out Social Security - a go-to for Dems this year - and the Klein ad focuses on West's personal financial problems.

Kelly is a perfect GOP target for Dems. He is a Tea Party favorite who beat establishment candidate Jonathan Paton on Tuesday and heads into the general election at a significant CoH disadvantage to Giffords. If Dems are successful in attacking candidates like Kelly and cause their negative ratings to rise, national Republicans may have to abandon them.

"Democrats will frame the race on their terms," said a Dem strategist. "Republicans will have to answer for their flawed backgrounds." Another Dem strategist noted that Dems are seeking to frame the election as a choice. To do that, they are trying to define the GOP alternative early.

Republicans acknowledge the strategy, but note that they played the same card in '06. "Post-Labor Day is when the voters will start paying attention and that is when campaigns on both sides will be fully engaged," said a GOP strategist. "This same strategy didn't work for Republicans in 2006 and while it might have some effect, it won't be enough."

The strategy also indicates -- albeit implicitly -- that Dems are looking to shift the focus away from Washington, DC, and their national profile, which is struggling . The negative ads show an intention to frame the competitive races locally and on the Republican challengers.

Pres. Obama made a fundraising appeal for the DCCC on Tuesday, asking supporters to raise $1M before the Aug. 31 monthly deadline.

In a message posted on the DCCC website, Obama draws a direct line between the financial goal and success in November.

"Democrats will retain the House of Representatives this year, as long as you continue working to help them win," Obama wrote.

"Tuesday marks a critical FEC reporting deadline for my friends at the DCCC, the only Democratic political committee solely dedicated to protecting the House," Obama added. "I'm asking for your help to make their $1 million grassroots goal before midnight Tuesday to continue the work we've only just begun."

The direct appeal from Obama is a signal that maintaining a significant money advantage is critical to Democratic hopes of holding the House. For most of the cycle, the DCCC has posted strong fundraising numbers but over the last four months, it has been outraised by the NRCC.

The DCCC, however, still has a significant cash on hand advantage -- $35.8M to $22.1M -- and the money will be used to pummel vulnerable challengers with negative spots.

Updated 8:45 a.m.

Wildly surpassing expectations, attorney Joe Miller (R) is leading Sen. LIsa Murkowski (R-AK) as elections officials in the Last Frontier count ballots.

With 98% of precincts reporting, Miller leads Murkowski 51.09%-48.91% -- a difference of about 2,000 votes out of nearly 90K cast.

A Miller win would surpass Rick Scott's in the FL GOV primary as the most stunning of the night. Miller had been written off by most pundits thanks to surveys that showed him trailing Murkowski by significant margins. Murkowski had a significant cash advantage over Miller and used it, advertising on radio and TV during the primary.

What Miller had, however, was the backing of former AK Gov. Sarah Palin, her husband Todd and the Tea Party Express. Palin's last-minute campaigning may have provided the edge Miller needed to overcome long odds.

Early Wednesday morning, Palin hinted at a Miller victory on Twitter: "Keeping fingers crossed, powder dry, prayers upward." Miller himself sounded confident of his prospects, jokingly tweeting: "What's the moose hunting like in the Beltway?" and "What's a 'Beltway traffic jam'? Is that when a caribou herd crosses a road?"

Palin recorded a robocall on Miller's behalf last week, attacking Murkowski. And the Tea Party Express has spent hundreds of thousands of dollars on behalf of Miller's candidacy, including a last-minute cash infusion.

Good Wednesday Morning. Hotline On Call is still sifting through the election results last night and pouring our second cup of coffee. In the Starting Lineup today: Sarah Palin has a good night, Ron Klein goes negative immediately, electoral volatility leading to surprises and Rand Paul getting a boost from Haley Barbour.

Be sure to check out links to our coverage of yesterday's primaries after the jump.

Sarah Palin: After a spate of bad primary nights, the former AK Gov. has something to write home about today from, well, home. Palin had five "grizzlies" in races last night and it looks like they all won: John McCain in AZ SEN, Paul Gosar in AZ 01, Pam Bondi for FL AG, Allen West in FL 22, and -- in what appears to be the shocker of the night -- Joe Miller in AK SEN. Expect stories today detailing Palin's win streak and, in particular, what Miller's apparent win means about her political capital in AK.

Ron Klein: Speaking of West, the Dem incumbent in FL 22 is wasting no time going after him. Klein is up with an ad today that hits West, and hits him hard.

The ad begins with a clip of West saying "individual responsibility and accountability is the number 1 cultural problems we have in America." It then smacks West for an IRS lien for back taxes, three liens on his home for unpaid bills, and past due credit card bills. "Allen West, the wrong values for South Florida."

The timing of the ad -- the day after West emerged as the GOP nominee -- suggests that Klein and Dems realize West is a real threat. West has been a strong fundraiser and Republicans are saying FL 22 is an example of their House playing field expanding. Keep an eye on this one.

Unpredictability: One important thing to take out of the election last night is the number of results we're seeing that defy conventional wisdom. Miller's win is the best example, following closely by Rick Scott in the FL GOV GOP primary.

Sure, in both of these cases several contributing factors contributed. But it's worth noting that there is a significant amount of volatility in the electorate this year and that is making contests unpredictable.

Rand Paul: GOP nominee in KY SEN is getting a welcome boost from RGA Chairman Haley Barbour. Barbour is heading to KY on Sept. 19 for a fundraiser.

The announcement is interesting on a couple levels. First, Paul isn't a GOP gubernatorial candidate, so Barbour isn't in any way obligated to help him beef up his warchest (not that this sort of fundraiser is uncommon). But because of that, it is unclear who this benefits more. Paul will certainly welcome the funds. But for Barbour, having the support of Paul could bring him the Libertarian wing of the GOP in the '12 Presidential primaries, something he is clearly considering.

Check out Hotline On Call's coverage of the primary results after the jump.

State Senate Pres. Pro Tem Peter Shumlin (D) and state Sen. Doug Racine (D) wake up this morning to find that they're still in a dogfight for the Dem nod in the VT-GOV race as less than 100 votes separate the two with St. Albans still left to report its numbers according to the AP.

Shumlin carried an 87-vote advantage over Racine entering the morning after 234 of 260 precincts turned in vote counts. Shumlin's 17,053 votes and Racine's tally of 16,966 votes gave both of them roughly 25% of the vote compared to Sec/State Deb Markowitz's (D) 24% (16,456 votes). Ex-state Sen. Matt Dunne (D) is set to finish in fourth place, capturing only 21% (14,222 votes), while state Sen. Susan Bartlett (D) rounded out the pack in a distant fifth place (5%, 3,524 votes).

The three leading candidates will likely all be able to request a recount if they want to as state law allows it when there is less than 2% of the vote separating top vote getters. WCAX-Burlington reports that the last time that happened came in 2006 when state Auditor Tom Salmon (D) "came from behind" to beat incumbent Randy Brock (R) in the general election. And while we wait for those last precincts to report, here's a completely random fun fact: three years after his 102-vote victory, Salmon switched his party ID from Democrat to Republican. Unlike some other party switchers this cycle, that actually worked out for Salmon as he ran unopposed in the GOP primary yesterday. He faces policy analyst Doug Hoffer (D) in the general election.

Ex-Tucson Vice Mayor Rodney Glassman(D) has won the Dem nomination to face Sen. John McCain this fall. With 99% of precincts reporting, Glassman leads '94 candidate/ex-Dept. of Health Services dir./ex-state Rep. Cathy Eden (D) 35%-27%.

Glassman went into Tuesday as the favorite to secure his party's nomination, though the race appeared open as public polling that was conducted on the Dem contest indicated a large number of undecided voters.

McCain will now face Glassman in a matchup that pits a veteran pol against an unknown newcomer who has been running right at the incumbent for months. McCain will have big advantages in money and name ID against the former aide to Rep. Raul Grijalva(D-AZ). Meanwhile, late in the primary, a couple of reports over unhappiness among some of Glassman's former staffers surfaced.

AZ-03

In a surprise, ex-VP Quayle son/atty Ben Quayle (R) weathered late reports that he wrote for a local off-color blog, and defeated businessman Steve Moak (R) and ex-state Sen. Jim Waring (R), 23-18-17%. Quayle took a beating in both the local and nat'l press for at first denying any links to "TheDirtyScottsdale.com," and then later admitting to contributing to the blog. He also garnered attention for calling Pres. Obama the "worst president in history" in a TV ad. In a primary where grassroots dominated, you have to believe the anti-Obama ad mitigated any damage Quayle may have suffered with the "Dirty Scottsdale" affair.

None of the other candidates could take advantage of Quayle's missteps, although Moak tried, dumping $600K of his own money into the race and spending over $1M in total. Ex-state Sen. Jim Waring (R) had backing from Sen. John McCain (R), but didn't have the cash to support his strong grassroots org. In the end, the combo of Quayle's name ID and cash (he raised $1.3M for the contest) proved to be too much for his opponents.

Quayle will face atty Jon Hulburd (D) in the general. This suburban Phoenix seat is a strong GOP CD, but just because Quayle survived the GOP primary doesn't mean this seat is necessarily out-of-play for Dems. Hulburd's got $430K in the bank and has impressed with his fundraising, and if Quayle has any other surprises, we're sure the DCCC will find them. But in a year where Dems will be very selective about where they go on offense, this seat isn't at the top of their list yet. Still, keep an eye out for any further Quayle missteps that may put this in play.

AZ-08

Tea Party fave/Iraq vet Jesse Kelly (R) upset ex-state Sen. Jonathan Paton (R) 49-41% for the right to face Rep. Gabrielle Giffords (D) in the fall. AZ GOPers in recent weeks could feel the mo' shifting heavily in Kelly's favor, and Paton, who had been running a frontrunner's campaign focused on Giffords, shifted gears and began attacking Kelly's family business for allegedly taking stimulus funds. But it was too late to try and recover lost ground.

Alaska Gov. Sean Parnell (R) handily won the GOP nomination Tuesday night, emerging victorious over atty/ex-Valdez Mayor Bill Walker (R) and Holland America VP/ex-state House Maj. Leader Ralph Samuels (R). Parnell took in 49% of the vote with 77% of precincts reporting. Walker came in second with 35% of the vote, and Samuels took in 14%. None of the other candidates running achieved higher than 1% of the vote.

Samuels conceded early on, citing "an unsexy message versus an incumbent governor" for the loss.

"Obviously I'm not pleased but it is what it is," said Walker just before midnight and not quite ready to concede. "We're just excited about the race we've run."

There was no surprise on the Dem side, with '08 AK-AL nominee/'06 LG nominee/ex-state House Min. Leader Ethan Berkowitz (D) comfortably beating State Sen. Hollis French (D), 49%-35% with 77% of precincts reporting.

Parnell is favored in a general election matchup with Berkowitz. Parnell has taken consistent fire from both his primary opponents and from Berkowitz, who has spent most of the Dem primary targeting Parnell.

State Senate Pres. Pro Tem Peter Shumlin (D) appears to be putting some daylight between himself and state Sen. Doug Racine (D) in a race dwindling down to a Last Man Standing competition. Shumlin's lead of 22 votes just jumped up to 216 with 34 precincts still left to report out of 260. Both men check in with about 25% of the vote and the race remains too close to call.

The night is over for Sec/State Deb Markowitz (D), who consistently led the first half of the evening before Shumlin and Racine catapulted past her during the last third of ballots. She trails with 24%, which is 3% better than fourth-place finisher '06 LG nominee/ex-state Sen. Matt Dunne (D), who held a brief early lead in the race. State Sen. Susan Bartlett (D) was never a serious contender, checking in with roughly 5% of the vote.

Most surprisingly, Dunne appears to be entering also-ran status. Early in the campaign, Dunne gained national recognition for his work in Google and how that might affect the race. The Green Mountain state's primary political guru Eric Davis held Markowitz as the favorite entering the final stretch but mentioned Dunne, Shumlin or Racine could potentially take her out with Shumlin benefitting from late momentum.

The Dem winner faces LG Brian Dubie (R) in the general election.

FL-02

Despite outspending state Sen. Al Lawson (D) by a 10-1 margin, Rep. Allen Boyd (D) squeaked by his Dem challenger to claim the Dem nod 51-49%.

The African-American Lawson managed to nearly pull the upset by winning the CD's population center of Leon Co. (Tallahassee) by a 250-vote margin, and also by taking heavily African-American Gadsden Co. by a large margin. Boyd performed relatively well everywhere else in the rural CD to take home the unconvincing win.

Boyd's $2.1M primary campaign, which featured early and relentless anti-Lawson TV ads, proved to be just what he needed to give him the victory. He'll meet funeral homes owner Steve Southerland (R) in the fall, as he beat back nominal GOP opposition to win his nod.

Southerland released a poll from mid-April that showed him leading Boyd by 15%, and considering tonight's performance, it's not difficult to imagine a scenario where Boyd falls. Mix together a disaffected base and a heavily GOP CD (McCain won 54% here) angry over his votes for the health care bill and cap-and-trade, and Boyd is in big trouble. Southerland is definitely at a huge cash disadvantage (Boyd owns a $762K-$80K CoH lead over the GOPer), but if Lawson's performance is any indication, Boyd won't be able to buy this election.

Lawson absorbed tons of hits, and still managed to nearly pull off a stunning win. If Southerland can put together a solid campaign and raise some cash, he'll have Boyd on the ropes. This is a top GOP pickup opportunity

FL-05

Rep. Ginny Brown-Waite's (R) last-minute decision to pull out of the race and switch-in Hernando Co. Sheriff Richard Nugent (R) in her place didn't make anyone happy, including Tea Party activist Jason Sager (R) who had originally filed to run against the incumbent. But he found little traction against Nugent, who took a 62-38% victory.

UPDATED, 11:52 P.M.: Sen. John McCain (R) has decisively won his GOP primary, defeating ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) comfortably. With 11% of the precincts reported, the AP called the race for McCain, who led Hayworth 59-29%.

McCain went on offense early in the race against Hayworth, spending heavily on TV ads and capitalizing on Hayworth's many mistakes. While the GOP race is done, party observers and pundits will likely keep an eye out for McCain's final margin of victory.

In remarks in Phoenix, McCain weighed in on the the challenge he faced during the primary. "This was a tough, hard-fought primary, and my opponents, Jim Deakin and Congressman Hayworth, and their families and supporters, deserve credit for having the courage to enter the arena, and give so much of themselves to the candidate they believed in. I wish them well in the future," said McCain. "I promise you, the Republicans and independents who voted for me, and those Arizonans who did not, I will do my best to prove worthy of the honor. I have never and will never take your support for granted, or feel I am entitled to your trust without earning it."

Looking ahead to the general election, McCain offered an optimistic outlook and said that he expected a "spirited" Dem challenge. "We have more than two more months of hard campaigning ahead of us, and I'm sure we will face a spirited challenge from the Democratic Party's nominee," said McCain. "This will be a consequential election. .. I'm convinced that Republicans will win in November and we will regain the majorities in both the Senate and the House. And we will win House seats here in Arizona."

McCain heads into the general election contest heavily favored to win re-election, regardless of who emerges from the Dem field. With 11% in, ex-Tucson Vice Mayor Rodney Glassman (D) leads '94 candidate/ex-Dept. of Health Services dir./ex-state Rep. Cathy Eden (D) 36%-29%.

As the heavy favorite in the general election against a candidate running to his left, McCain will find himself in a situation quite different from the primary. How he responds likely be the biggest story the rest of the way. He may maintain a course marked by tacking to the right on a number of positions, or he may work to try to claim some of the middle ground between him and his opponent.

UPDATED, 11:15 P.M.:The exceedingly expensive, extremely negative GOP primary came to a surprising end Tuesday as businessman Rick Scott (R) edged out FL AG Bill McCollum (R) to take the nod in the Florida governor's race. Self-funder Scott will now face surging FL CFO Alex Sink (D) in what is sure to be a fiercely-fought general election.

The AP has called the race for Scott, with 92% of precincts reporting and Scott leading McCollum 47%-43%.

UPDATED 9:42 P.M.: Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) easily beat financier/developer Jeff Greene (D) in the FL SEN Democratic primary this evening, setting up a three-way general election against ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) and Gov. Charlie Crist (I). Meek had a strong showing in the Miami area, where his House district lies, and also showed impressive strength in the I-4 corridor, the crucial battleground. 

With 43% of precincts reporting, the AP called the race with Meek leading Greene 55%-33%.

In a statement, Meek immediately took a jab at Crist, saying he now faces "two lifelong conservative Republicans," a not so subtle swipe at the independent Florida governor who has been targeting Dem voters. 

"The naysayers said we couldn't beat a billionaire, and tonight with your help, we proved them wrong," Meek said. "We have the momentum in this race, and over the next 70 days, we'll make sure that every Floridian knows that there is just one candidate who will fight for everyday Florida families. In 10 weeks, Floridians will prove the naysayers wrong once more and send a Real Democrat to Washington, D.C."

But Meek shouldn't get too comfortable in the victor's seat. He faces an uphill battle heading in the general against Crist and Rubio, who had only token primary opposition tonight. Crist's rapid shift leftward suggests he will be targeting Democratic voters in his general election campaign and competitive polling numbers make him an appealing candidate for those who don't think Meek stands a chance. Meek needs to solidify Dem support, tear down Crist's popularity with moderate voters, and vastly improve his name recognition if he is to remain competitive over the next two months.

Meek's win appears to have solidified his support among Dems in DC. DSCC Chairman Robert Menendez released a statement that went all in for Meek, leaving little wiggle room for Dems to support Crist. 

"Congratulations to Kendrick Meek on his hard-fought victory tonight," Menendez said. "Kendrick was outspent five to one, but tonight proved that a compelling message, an energetic candidate, and the right ideas can beat tough odds. Kendrick ran an aggressive, thoughtful, grassroots campaign, and prevailed over inordinate resources spent against him." 

Republicans are looking to paint Meek as a DC insider. NRSC Chairman John Cornyn issued a statement touting Rubio as the only candidate in the race who "understands that Washington is broken."

"As a lifelong Democrat hand-picked by his national party leaders and the Obama White House, Kendrick Meek has spent his career brazenly rubberstamping Nancy Pelosi's reckless spending agenda in Washington," Cornyn said in a statement. 

Cornyn also showed that Republicans are willing to go after Crist full throttle. "Within a few short months, Charlie Crist has espoused different positions on the Democrats' massive health care bill," Cornyn said. "Back when he needed Republican votes, he talked about being pro-life and filled his website with pro-life language. Now that he needs Democrat votes, he has scrubbed all pro-life language from his site and now claims to be pro-choice."

House Min. Leader John Boehner's economic address in Cleveland this morning is heavy on rhetoric and light on policy -- just like the party's electoral agenda so far. But that's about to change.

-- Boehner will promise a robust, "ground up" agenda, to be unveiled next month, that will act as a rallying point for GOP candidates. The party doesn't really need one, from an electoral point of view (Who remembers Dems' "6 in '06" platform a few years back?). Instead, an agenda just gives Dems something to attack.

-- But Dems are already focusing on Rep. Paul Ryan's "Roadmap," aiming to force GOP candidates to take a position on cutting entitlement benefits in order to balance the budget in 50 years. In the absence of a formal platform, Ryan's roadmap becomes the GOP's agenda. Therein lies the genesis of Dems' new Social Security demagoguery.

Boehner himself is something of the forgotten man in the GOP's drive for the majority. The press is obsessed with Ryan, and insiders buzz, rightly or wrongly, at Rep. Eric Cantor's ambition. But Boehner would be the one with the speaker's gavel. How he handles the roll-out of his party's agenda will say something about his political smarts. Whether his governing style proves as confrontational as the last 2 years have been, or whether he becomes a Gingrich-esque deal-maker, could determine just how long, or how briefly, a GOP majority survives.

In the latest installment of Hotline TV, Reid Wilson and Josh Kraushaar debate whether establishment candidates are making a comeback. They'll examine primaries in AZ, FL and AK to find out.

The RNC is not questioning Pres. Obama's religion, a spokesman said, brushing aside a tweet from a top party staffer that raised eyebrows this afternoon.

On Tuesday afternoon, RNC new media director Todd Herman posted a link to a video from the '08 campaign trail and seemed to call Obama a Muslim. The video shows Obama accidentally referring to "my Muslim faith," in the context of acknowledging that Sen. John McCain (R-AZ) had not furthered misinformation campaigns suggesting Obama is not Christian.

"Is @BarackObama amongst the 20% who think he's Muslim?" Herman asked, before linking to the video by way of an RNC-built portal. Herman was referring to a Pew Research poll that showed 18% of Americans believe Obama is a Muslim, significantly higher than in any previous poll.

RNC communications director Doug Heye dismissed the tweet, and the controversy surrounding Obama's faith.

"An errant, or sarcastically-intended tweet aside, the RNC has never spoken about the President's Christianity because it is both crystal clear and a non-issue," Heye said.

Herman deleted the tweet on Tuesday afternoon, shortly after Hotline On Call and other outlets asked questions about it.

It's not the first time an RNC affiliate has questioned Obama's religion. In fact, it's not even the first time this month -- on Monday, IA RNC member Kim Lehman tweeted her own comment, apparently misreading a speech Obama gave to a Muslim audience in Cairo last year.

"BTW he personally told the muslims [sic] that he IS a muslim. Read his lips," she said in an Aug. 19 tweet first reported by the Des Moines Register.

Welcome to a new feature at Hotline On Call: Path To Victory. We'll frequently look at a competitive race and track both candidates' playbook for getting a win in November. First up: Republican Dino Rossi's campaign to unseat Sen. Patty Murray (D-WA).

Rossi's announcement that he would challenge Murray this year turned the conventional wisdom about the race upside down. Murray was considered one the safest incumbents this cycle. Rossi is a well known quantity in WA having run twice -- unsuccessfully -- for governor against Christine Gregoire (D) in '04 and '08. In '04, Rossi lost by just 133 votes.

A survey of political strategists on both sides of the aisle found wide agreement on both how Rossi will run and why this year he might be able to succeed where he failed in previous cycles.

Tomorrow we'll take a look at how Murray can turn things around and win re-election.

The King-Maker: Any discussion of WA politics immediately turns to King County, where the state's population is most dense. Home to Seattle, King County is a big part of the Dem base so Rossi will look to limit his losses there. State Republicans say there is a magic number for a GOP candidate to win statewide: 40% in King County. Rossi has had success there, hitting the 40% mark exactly in '04.

The DSCC is up in CO with an ad attacking GOP nominee Ken Buck that is particularly revealing about their 2010 strategy.

The ad seeks to paint Buck as an extremist and out of the Colorado mainstream. In particular it focuses on a comment by Buck that he would support repealing the 17th Amendment, which would allow state legislatures to elect U.S. senators instead of voters.

"Ken Buck proposed a radically different idea," the narrator says. "Buck said he wanted to rewrite the Constitution to let state legislators pick our Senators instead of voters. That's right. Ken Buck actually proposed ending our right to vote for our own senators. Rewriting the Constitution? Ending our right to vote? Ken Buck's just too extreme for Colorado."

There are a two points to note about the ad. First, this is only the second DSCC IE ad of the cycle. The first was in PA, where Rep. Joe Sestak (D) is trailing ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R). So, the fact that the DSCC is putting up funds - a committee source said the ad buy was significant - could be a sign that Sen. Michael Bennet (D) is in trouble.

Second, the ad is indicative of a general strategy for the DSCC this year: Paint outsider or tea party GOP nominees as extremists. The DSCC has been seeking to define Buck as an extremist since the moment he won the primary. It is a similar strategy they are using against GOP nominees Sharron Angle in NV and Rand Paul in KY. If the DSCC goes on the attack with ads in those states as well, expect a similar message.

Vice President Joe Biden responded to House Min. Leader John Boehner's call to fire the White House economic team by slamming Boehner and the GOP agenda.

In the eight years preceding the Obama administration, "Mr. Boehner's party ran the economy into the ground," Biden said. "The sum total was the greatest economic recession since the great depression."

Biden took Boehner and Republicans to task for complaining without offering any alternative ideas. "All we know is what Boehner is against...I'm still waiting to hear what is they are for," said Biden.

The vice president dismissed the notion that Republicans will take control of Congress this fall and dismantled Boehner's argument for extending the Bush tax cuts to the wealthiest Americans. "It's a Wall Street tax cut, not a Main Street Tax cut," he said.

Biden's remarks came at a press conference scheduled to discuss a new Recovery Act report on technology and innovation.

If there is any doubt that the GOP primary for the open Senate seat in New Hampshire is in a downward spiral, Bill Binnie's latest ad should squash it.

Binnie is up with a new ad Tuesday supported by a sizable ad buy. The ad is brutal toward GOP rival Kelly Ayotte, criticizing her for ties to DC and for the sources of her campaign funds.

"Kelly Ayotte is an insider," the narrator says. "She was handpicked by politicians and lobbyists in Washington and New Hampshire. Fact: She was always appointed, never elected. Fact: Her campaign has taken hundreds of thousands in special interest money including: Wall Street, Tobacco, Alcohol, Insurance, Pharmaceuticals, Exxon Mobil, even Halliburton."

The GOP primary to take on Rep. Paul Hodes (D) has become increasingly negative despite the best efforts of state GOP Chairman John Sununu . Sununu wrote to GOP candidates last week urging them to run positive primary campaigns. Binnie quickly posted a response on his website saying it was a "great idea, but sadly too late."

Ayotte has hit back at Binnie, launching a negative ad of her own that labeled Binnie a "liberal."  She also aired a radio ad on Monday that criticizes Binnie for opposing the AZ immigration law.

The Binnie campaign would not disclose the size of the ad buy, but a Dem monitoring it says it is one of the largest so far in the race and that Binnie is up both in the Manchester, NH, and Boston, MA, media markets. Binnie plans to stay on the air through the primary on Sept. 14.

Notably, the Binnie campaign also doesn't view the ad as a negative ad, but rather as one that highlights Ayotte's record. (For what it's worth, Hotline On Call definitely views this as a negative ad.) A source in the Binnie camp says their strategy is to focus on casting Ayotte as a Washington insider. To that end, they are also pushing out a schedule showing Ayotte attending fundraisers this week with NRSC Chairman John Cornyn ...in Texas. Ayotte is countering that attack with a report that Binnie was in NY for a fundraiser recently. 

Check out the ad after the jump.

House Min. Leader John Boehner will ask Pres. Obama to fire his top economic advisors today in a major speech touting the GOP's plans to revitalize the marketplace.

"Pres. Obama should ask for -- and accept -- the resignations of the remaining members of his economic team, starting with Secretary [Tim] Geithner and Larry Summers, the head of the National Economic Council," Boehner plans to say, according to prepared remarks.

"We do not have the luxury of waiting months for the president to pick scapegoats for his failing 'stimulus' policies," Boehner will say. "We've tried 19 months of government-as-community organizer. It hasn't worked. Our fresh start needs to begin now."

Boehner will also promise a real economic agenda from the GOP, which has been criticized for failing to lay out a governing plan. America Speaking Out, a group launched in May and run out of Boehner's office, will produce this year's version of a Contract with America after months of what Boehner and Rep. Kevin McCarthy (R-CA), who heads the effort, have called a listening tour.

"This listening effort will culminate next month with the release of a clear and positive governing agenda focused on getting people working again," Boehner plans to say.

"This won't be just some document handed down by Washington know-it-alls pushing the same-old, same old. And it certainly won't be based on the idea that sitting in Washington cutting backroom deals on 2,000-page bills represents hope," Boehner will say. "We are building this agenda from the ground up by listening to the American people."

Good Tuesday morning. It's primary day, so there is plenty to watch for today. Stay tuned to Hotline On Call through tonight for news and results in AK, AZ, FL, OK and VT. And be sure to check out our primary tipsheet: http://bit.ly/9JEBkw

Also on the radar: Boehner steps into the spotlight, Richmond gets another big endorsement, Sessions steps into FL 24, Bruun looks to expand the GOP's House playing field and bad news for...wait for it....Snooki.

Boehner's Moment? The stage could not be set any better for the House Minority Leader and potential Speaker of the House. Boehner will deliver a speech on the economy this morning at 8 AM at the City Club in Cleveland. He has a slow news cycle to work with so he'll get plenty of media attention. More, Dems elevated his remarks on Monday by hosting a prebuttal conference call in which they blasted the policies as the GOP policies of the past. On top of that, the chattering class is looking for cues as to how the GOP will govern if they win congressional majorities this fall. This will be a prime opportunity for Boehner to make a splash. http://bit.ly/awzhMv

Cedric Richmond: It's the LA state legislator's time to shine. Or, at least, Dems hope it is. Richmond is the Dem favorite to take on Rep. Joseph Cao (R) this fall. He has the backing of the DCCC and New Orleans Mayor Mitch Landrieu endorsed Richmond on Monday. Richmond already has the backing of the mayor's sister, Sen. Mary Landrieu.

Richmond is the clear favorite in the Dem primary on Saturday, but don't pencil him on to the general election ballot yet. He faces a crowded primary that includes state Rep. Juan LaFonta. LA primaries are notoriously low turnout affairs - they are on a Saturday! - so anything could happen. If Richmond doesn't emerge, it would be a blow to Dem chances of picking up Cao's seat - a must have for them this year. http://bit.ly/dqY0jp

Craig Miller: The GOP candidate to take on Rep. Suzanne Kosmas in FL 24 is in a tricky spot today. On Monday, NRCC Chairman Pete Sessions singled out and criticized Miller for a mailer that called into question GOP primary rival Karen Diebel's emotional stability.

Sessions insisted he wasn't endorsing either candidate in the race, but he's given Dems an opportunity in the spin wars following today's primaries in FL. If Miller wins, they can say he isn't Sessions' preferred candidate since he went out on a limb for Diebel. If Diebel wins, Dems can say she's a damaged candidate. Either way, the GOP won't transition smoothly into the general election in this targeted race. http://politi.co/9mHZMM

Scott Bruun: Need another sign that the playing field is expanding for the GOP in the House? In OR 05, a district that was originally considered pretty safe for Dems, a GOP internal poll provided to Hotline On Call shows GOP challenger Bruun leading Dem Rep. Kurt Schrader . Bruun leads in the mid-August poll 41% to 38% with 22% undecided.

Take those numbers with a grain of salt; it's a GOP poll and Schrader is still within the +/- 6% margin of error. But they show significant gains for Bruun. In a March survey, Schrader led 45% to 32%. This is not a district where the NRCC is planning advertisements, but the DCCC is. It could be one of those CDs the NRCC's needs to get over the hump and win a House majority.

Poll Fun: Bad news for Snooki: A new Quinnipiac poll find that 51% of New Jersey voters have an unfavorable view of MTV's "The Jersey Shore." 54% say it is bad for New Jersey. http://bit.ly/crkyXq

What else are you watching today? The comments section awaits below.

LA Gov. Bobby Jindal (R) says he has no interest in running for the WH in '12 -- and his recently diminished fundraising profile and lack of a federal PAC confirm that Jindal is probably not just playing coy. The governor has taken no recent steps towards establishing a national fundraising vehicle for a possible WH '12 bid.

Jindal excited conservatives by winning big in LA in '07 as the national environment turned sharply against the GOP in '06 and '08, and has frequently been mentioned as a possible pres. contender or VP pick. But the governor's political activities have been curtailed sharply his early days in office.

Jindal's "Believe In Louisiana" 527 group has almost entirely ceased operating since '08. The org. hasn't taken in a single contribution since Jan. '09. Expenditures over the past year and a half have come to a halt. In the last 6 months, the group has only been paying out small administrative expenses. So far this year, the org. has spent less than $3K -- a miniscule amount from a group that raised over $1M in '08 and spent over $600K on advertising in the governor's early days in office.

"Believe in La. is taking time to strategize on future opportunities to promote the significant progress being made in Louisiana -- from growing jobs to reforming our education system -- and we value the support of all those who believe in Louisiana," said an org. staffer in an email to the Baton Rouge Advocate.

Looking for a one stop shop for everything you need to know about the primaries tomorrow? Look no further. Here are Hotline On Call's breakdowns of the races.

Be sure to tune in tomorrow. We'll keep you posted on the developments in Alaska, Arizona and Florida.

FL SEN: Chaos In The Sunshine State

FL GOV: McCollum, Scott Limp To Primary

FL, AZ House: Top 5 Races To Watch

AZ GOV: Brewer's Turnaround

AZ SEN: McCain Set To Defeat Hayworth

AK SEN: Murkowski In Control

AK GOV: Parnell Heads Into First Re-Elect

Until late April, everyone thought the FL Senate primary to watch would be on the GOP side. But Gov. Charlie Crist's (I) party switch and financier/developer Jeff Greene's (D) sudden entry into the race upended those expectations, as well as Rep. Kendrick Meek's (D-FL) easy path to the Dem nomination.

Observers initially brushed off the self-funding billionaire Greene, who made millions by betting subprime mortgages would collapse. But Greene soon blanketed the airwaves with ads touting how he would create jobs. Meanwhile, the intrepid Meek, who had focused on building a ground game, struggled to gain name recognition outside of his Miami district.

The flamboyant Greene framed the race as an outsider versus the ultimate establishment candidate, and had paid media to himself for most of the summer to communicate that message. Correspondingly, he soon leapt into the poll lead in this outsider year. But his lavish parties and celebrity pals like boxer Mike Tyson attracted the press like flies, and Greene found himself defending his lifestyle. His yacht got him into particular trouble, as ex-employees told stories of alcohol-fueled raves and drug-related shenanigans.

Greene didn't do his campaign any favors when his story about why he went to Cuba changed multiple times, ranging from a Jewish mission to a mechanical dysfunction. Meek used these examples and other anecdotes to label Greene a "bad man," but also ran into some trouble himself. In early May, the Miami Herald tied Meek to a corrupt developer who employed his mother, ex-Rep. Carrie Meek (D) as a lobbyist. Greene was soon using the controversy in his ads.

Earlier this year, FL AG Bill McCollum (R) had smooth sailing toward his general election FL GOV race against FL CFO Alex Sink (D). But a late entry by businessman Rick Scott (R) blew that plan apart, and the GOP primary race soon descended into a very expensive tailspin of negative campaigning.

The sometimes-stilted McCollum, a former congressman and two-time Senate candidate, struggled to keep up with Scott's barrage of advertising, which touted the former hospital executive as a job creating outsider. The self-funding Scott, whose company Columbia/HCA was fined $1.7B for Medicare fraud, went up on TV in April and never stopped. His and his 527's spending, which broke FL records and challenged a FL spending cap (now declared illegal), reached close to $50M by last week.

Scott gained a foothold in the race by taking a hard line on immigration, quickly embracing AZ's immigration law and calling for a FL version. McCollum, who initially questioned the law, was accused of flip-flopping when he eventually came out in support of it. This pattern was repeated several times, as Scott drove McCollum farther to the right as the race progressed.

McCollum fell behind Scott in every major poll conducted in early summer, but loose FL campaign finance rules allowed him to bring in the establishment cavalry against Scott. Ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (R), ex-NYC Mayor Rudy Giuliani (R) and ex-Gov. Jeb Bush (R) all stumped for McCollum in the final days of the race. McCollum's 527 allies in FL and DC also funded over $20M in ad campaigns hitting Scott on the Medicare fraud scandal. Scott responded in kind, hitting McCollum on everything from the FL GOP finance scandal to flip-flopping to his DC lobbying days.

Former AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) has recorded a robocall for Senate contender Joe Miller that stresses Miller's willingness to "confront Obama's radical agenda."

Palin endorsed Miller early in his campaign to unseat Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R).

The robocall also takes Murkowski to task. "Lisa Murkowski has voted with the Democrats more than any Republican up for reelection this year," Palin says. "She waffled on the repeal of ObamaCare, co-sponsored Cap and Trade, and voted for TARP."

Miller is a long shot on Tuesday, and will likely be another candidate in Palin's loss column. Palin has kept her distance from Miller somewhat - she hasn't appeared at any campaign events with him. Todd Palin , however, held a fundraiser for Miller.

Check out the robocall below.

(Hat tip: GOP12)

One day before voters head to the polls in Florida, Rep. Kendrick Meek has solidified his lead in the Democratic Senate primary and AG Bill McCollum is holding on to a narrow advantage in the Republican gubernatorial primary, according to a new poll out Monday morning.

The Quinnipiac poll found Meek leading Jeff Greene by 10% - 39% to 29% - and McCollum up 4% - 39% to 35% - on Rick Scott .

Many voters in each race remain undecided. More than 1 in 5 GOP voters - 22% - have yet to make up their mind in the GOV race and nearly 3 in 10 Dem voters - 28% - are undecided in the Dem contest.

"With one in five GOP voters and more than one in four Democrats undecided, anything is possible, but the internals of the poll are consistent with McCollum and Meek being ahead," said said Peter A. Brown, assistant director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute.

The negativity of the primary has hurt Scott. A plurality of Republican voters - 40% - view Scott unfavorably, while 31% view him favorably. McCollum is holding on to a narrow advantage, as 39% view him favorably compared to 37% who view him unfavorably.

Notably, Meek appears to be be emerging from the primary with his image somewhat intact among Dems. Dem voters view Meek favorably by a 42% to 22% margin. The reverse is the case for Greene: 38% of Dem voters view him unfavorably, while 29% view him favorably.

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted Aug. 21-22, surveying 757 likely voters in the Dem SEN primary and 771 likely voters in the GOP GOV primary. The margins of error are +/- 3.6% and +/- 3.5%, respectively.

Good Monday morning. What Hotline On Call is watching today: FL primaries, Marco Rubio stakes out new ground, Dem trouble in IL, a tea partier in AZ 08 and Dems look to spark their field operation.

Florida: Yes, the whole state will be the focus of the political world for the next 48 hours. The primaries in the Senate and governor races will dominate the news. Here is what we know right now: The Dem primary in FL SEN looks to be locked up for Rep. Kendrick Meek. Meek leads Jeff Greene by a significant 12% in a Mason-Dixon poll released over the weekend. The Republican primary in FL GOV, looks like it'll be closer. Bill McCollum appears to be building a lead in the Mason-Dixon poll, leading Rick Scott by 9%. http://bit.ly/cLYny6

Marco?: With all the attention on the contested primaries in FL SEN and FL GOV, don't forget the one candidate that has caused the biggest stir in the state but doesn't have a contest on Tuesday: Marco Rubio. Originally dubbed potentially the first senator from the tea party, Rubio now appears to be moving away from the tea party platform (if such a thing has been defined). The New York Times offers a particularly revealing profile today, in which Rubio says he doesn't agree with the current debate on the 14th Amendment, nor does he support Arizona's controversial immigration law. Rubio also says he is not simply running on opposition to Dems, but rather on presenting alternative ideas.

This could just be the beginning of Rubio's general election strategy, but it may also indicate that the tea party - which has not presented a clear platform - is still struggling to find a leader. http://nyti.ms/6bRDnM, http://nyti.ms/9jsOF2

Dem Trouble in IL: It looks like the top of ticket in IL could be a problem for the Dem slate in IL this fall. Gov. Pat Quinn's (D) campaign appears to be imploding. First, Quinn and Pres.  Obama's  media firm AKPD split up last Friday - and AKPD releases a pretty scathing statement. Now, Quinn's chief of staff is resigning over an ethics probe into inappropriate use of his government e-mail account. http://bit.ly/90NYIe, http://bit.ly/ayQ1wg

Quinn, who is locked in a difficult race against Republican Bill Brady , could drag down the ticket for other Dems in IL. Most importantly: Senate contender Alexi Giannoulias. Giannoulias' race against Rep. Mark Kirk is going to be as tight as they come this year, anything - like an ethically challenged governor - could have an effect on Dem turnout.

Voters in Arizona and Florida -- states that will play big roles in determining who will control Congress post-'10 -- will head to the polls next week to pick nominees for several key contests. The highlights: one incumbent in serious danger, a Quayle may fail, and GOPers will pick a nominee to challenge outspoken Rep. Alan Grayson (R). It'll be a busy night.

Here's our look at the top 5 races to watch on Tuesday.

1. FL-02

Rep. Allen Boyd (D) knew he was in deep trouble very early this cycle, and responded by airing TV ads in October of '09. That's earlier than almost any other incumbent in the House.

But in this conservative CD that gave John McCain 54%, Boyd's first problem isn't the general; it's surviving a primary against state Sen. Al Lawson (D). Lawson, who isn't the most liberal member of the legislature, is running to the incumbent's left. He criticized Boyd for voting against the health care bill the first time it came around, and also attacked his "Blue Dog" roots.

Lawson released a poll last Nov. showing him leading Boyd, with the incumbent sitting at 31%. Since then, Boyd has released a barrage of TV ads against Lawson that pick apart his voting record in the legislature. Attacks against Lawson include: voting against "helping seniors save money on prescriptions", and voting to raise insurance rates by 30%. Boyd also attacked him for voting for 14 GOP budgets, accusing him of voting "with the Republicans and against" FL families.

If this race was about money, Boyd would win in a walk, as he's spent over $2M on the primary alone compared to Lawson's $200K. If Boyd fails to win convincingly, it'll speak volumes about his Nov. vulnerabilities.

The GOP frontrunner appears to be funeral homes owner Steve Southerland (R), who has raised $400K for the race. If he does take the nod, he'll start the general at a distinct fundraising disadvantage to Boyd (who had more than $700K in the bank at the beginning of Aug., compared to Southerland's $80K), but he'd match up very well against Lawson.

A race against Lawson would not be a gimmie for the newcomer, but he'd certainly be favored. But the GOPer also feels confident about a race against Boyd, as Southerland released a poll in early April showing him with a 15-point lead over the incumbent. But Lawson has the cash, and obviously the compunction, to go negative when needed. This race will be fun to watch, and is surely one of the GOP's top pickup opportunities.

2. AZ-03

Ben Quayle (R), son of VP Quayle, may have begun the race as the frontrunner, but he certainly hasn't finished it that way. After first denying that he had any connection to a local website titled "The Dirty Scottsdale," he was forced to admit to knowing its founder and having commented on the site. Most AZ GOPers agree those events have tanked Quayle's poll standing and most likely have taken him out of the running. Even the $450K that remains of his hefty warchest, and his anti-Obama TV ad, may not be enough to save him following a calamitous few weeks.

That leaves a few others to pick up the pieces. If money was the deciding factor, then businessman Steven Moak (R) would be the next in line. He's raised $1.1M ($600K out of his own pocket), and has been on the air with ads since March. The other frontrunners include ex-state Sen. Jim Waring (R) and Paradise Valley Mayor Vernon Parker (R). Waring has raised the least of any of the frontrunners, but is a strong retail campaigner and his connection to Sen. John McCain (R) -- who held a 8/18 fundraiser for him -- should help down the stretch. He starts with a significant base, too, as he represented 25% of the CD's population in his state Senate district. Parker, meanwhile, reportedly saw a surge in the polls after a strong ad buy, but one consultant said he ran out of money.

Ex-state Sen. Pamela Gorman (R) is also running, but while she picked up early buzz when a web video of her firing a machine gun went viral, she hasn't been able to translate that into enough dollars to compete. In the end, AZ types expect the race to come down to Moak, Waring or Parker. The winner will have a leg up on atty Jon Hulburd (D), who has raised a very respectable amount, but who has the misfortune of running in this GOP-leaning CD in a very GOP year.

3. FL-08

You'd expect that the spotlight and sense of commotion that normally follows Rep. Alan Grayson (D) would also find its way into the seven-way GOP primary to challenge him. But that race has been anything but high-profile.

If you would have asked AZ political observers late in '09 about Gov. Jan Brewer's (R) chances in the GOP primary and overall re-election prospects, you would have likely heard some bleak appraisals. For the once beleaguered gov. who trailed her competitors in the polls and had a testy relationship with the state legislature during her first year on office, the path to the nomination looked difficult. Fast forward to the present and Brewer is not only the overwhelming favorite to win the GOP nomination in next Tuesday's primary, but she is also the odds on favorite to win the general election, should she advance.

Observers attribute Brewer's turnaround to two big political victories: The signing of SB 1070 in April, the state's controversial immigration law, and the passage of a temporary sales tax increase which Brewer pushed for leading up to the vote that was taken in May. While Brewer vouched for the tax increase, critics contend that she was not heavily involved in the crafting of SB 1070 in its early days, and simply got lucky that the bill came to her desk when it did. Meanwhile, some Brewer allies argue that she was gaining momentum even before signing SB 1070. Whatever the explanation, Brewer's resurrection is one of the most remarkable comebacks of the cycle.

Early this year, the GOP race was a three way contest, with Treas. Dean Martin (R) and NRA board member/firearms training center owner Owen Buz Mills (R) challenging Brewer. Mills' bid was noteworthy because of his self-funding capability. He went up with early TV commercials and spent millions. But for Mills, running to Brewer's right became difficult after the signing of SB 1070. Brewer emerged the authoritative figure on immigration and border security in the race, and Mills was not able to mount an effective attack. He suspended his campaign in July and Martin soon followed, leaving the GOP race to Brewer and pol. sci./gov't Ph.D Matthew Jette (R), who Brewer is expected to easily defeat on Tuesday.

Over on the Dem side, AG Terry Goddard (D), once thought to be the favorite in a general election contest, is unopposed in the primary. Polling indicates Brewer leads Goddard in a head to head general election matchup by a comfortable margin. A Rocky Mountain poll conducted June 30-July 11 showed Brewer leading Goddard 45%-25%.

Here's what we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Pres. Obama ends the week 9 points underwater in the current Gallup daily tracking poll (42% approve/51% disapprove). Any rebound in his numbers might not happen as soon as the WH would like. This week started with a media frenzy over Obama's comments about a NYC mosque and ended with endless chatter about 2 new polls asking Americans if they thought Obama is a Muslim. On Friday, Obama began a 10-day vacation on Martha's Vineyard -- a vacation sure to give the GOP more opportunity to label him as secretly "different."

-- While House Dems may be hurting, there's certainly nothing wrong with their oppo research units. Decades' old police reports and court documents unearthed this week against GOP challengers in IA-03 and FL-25 remind us that candidates and campaigns still do matter. GOPers are still going to have a stellar cycle, but losses in these types of districts could cost the party a chance at the majority.

-- We learned more about Dems' money advantage, too. With the RNC nearly broke and the DNC pumping money into state affiliates, the GOP is starting to get seriously worried not just that they'll leave seats on the table, but that the seats decided by a few thousand votes will all end up in the Dem column. It's one thing for the GOP to parachute in late for a 72-hour program. It's entirely another for field operatives to have been on the ground for the better part of a year.

One of the nastiest and most expensive SEN primaries this cycle will reach its conclusion on Tuesday, when Sen. John McCain (R) faces off against ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R). Both Hayworth and McCain have launched relentless efforts to discredit each other but it is McCain who has emerged as the clear front-runner to secure the GOP nomination, according to recent polling. A Rocky Mountain poll conducted 6/30-7/11 found McCain leading Hayworth 64%-19%. Also competing in the GOP race is businessman/USN vet. Jim Deakin (R).

McCain launched an expensive TV offensive in the spring, hitting Hayworth early and often. His ad assault sought to cast Hayworth as a pork-barrel spender and criticized the former congressman for his post-congressional lobbying work.

At times, Hayworth made McCain's job easier, offering up gaffes and finding himself having to explain questionable decisions. A widely covered revelation that Hayworth once pitched government grants became instant fodder for a McCain TV ad and put Hayworth on the defensive.

Hayworth has taken his share of shots at McCain as well. Aiming to capitalize on the narrative that McCain has flip-flopped on previous policy positions and is tacking to the right in the face of conservative competition this cycle, Hayworth called McCain a "political shape-shifter" during a debate and released TV ads attacking McCain as being soft on illegal immigration.

But when it comes to money spent during the primary, Hayworth was no match for McCain. McCain outspent Hayworth by a significant margin, dishing out millions of dollars, including funds leftover from his '08 WH run. During the latest reporting period, McCain outspent Hayworth 3-1.

The way the primary has unfolded suggests that for AZ GOPers dissatisfied with McCain, simply finding an alternative who is not McCain is not enough on its own to unseat the incumbent. McCain's wealth of resources allowed him to pounce on all of Hayworth's mistakes, amplifying them both in AZ and nationally. For McCain, tacking to the right may have ruined his credibility with some independents, but he remains the favorite to win both the primary on Tuesday, and another term in the Senate come November.

FL establishment candidates Kendrick Meek (D) and Bill McCollum (R) are on track to capture their parties' nods in SEN and GOV primaries, respectively, as their self-financed challengers have faltered, according to a new poll released late today, just days before the Tues. election.

The poll, conducted by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research and released this evening by their media clients, shows Meek leading businessman Jeff Greene (D) in the Dem SEN primary, 42-30%.

McCollum leads businessman Rick Scott (R) in the GOP GOV primary, 45-36%, with Mike McAlister at 4%.

Greene has been the subject of numerous negative media profiles over the final month of the campaign, including tales of debauchery about his yacht. He has never led Meek in the Mason-Dixon poll, but he trailed by just four points at the beginning of this month.

The GOP GOV primary has been characterized by profligate spending, particularly by Scott, the billionaire who founded two health care companies.

Scott has been the subject of a number of negative ads from McCollum and groups aligned with the AG. Scott has recently refused to release a deposition he gave earlier this year in a lawsuit against one of the companies he founded.

The attacks have eroded what was a six-point Scott lead in a Mason-Dixon poll conducted at the beginning of this month.

"The blunders on the ground where the biggest part of it," Mason-Dixon pollster Brad Coker told the Orlando Sentinel, one of the media outlets that commissioned the poll. "Then there were some dumb ads in there, and all there was was 'attack, attack, attack.'"

The lesson in both primaries, Coker says, is that money can't necessarily buy votes in the state.

"Wealth helps, but it can only get you so far," Coker told the Miami Herald, another Mason-Dixon client. "I still think a wealthy businessperson can win in Florida, but they have to have had strong ties to their local communities and charities."

Mason-Dixon surveyed 500 likely voters in each of the party primaries from Aug. 17-19; each sample carries a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.

AK voters head to the polls on 8/24 to choose between Sen. Lisa Murkowski (R) and atty Joe Miller (R). Despite the fanfare around Miller's candidacy, in the polls and in the money race Murkowski has trumped Miller consistently. While he has certainly forced her to campaign, and pushed her somewhat to the right, a Murkowski loss is extremely unlikely.

Miller announced his candidacy in April, to little notice at first. But then Todd Palin held a fundraiser for Miller in May, and on 6/2 -- despite having donated to Murkowski's campaign the year before -- Palin endorsed Miller via a note on her Facebook page, calling Murkowski a "bigger part of the big government problem in Washington," and calling Miller a "true Commonsense Constitutional Conservative."

Murlowski would later say she was somewhat surprised at the endorsement, and that she believed that much of Palin's support for Miller has to do with the personal relationship between the Palin and Miller families.

But on 6/16, the Tea Party Express followed Palin's lead, pledging money and staff to Miller -- hoping to make him the next Sharron Angle (R-NV). Days later, Murkowski was up with a radio ad touting her conservative credentials, highlighting her votes against the economic stimulus and the health care bill.

But despite the fervor over the Palin endorsement, Miller didn't seem to catch fire the way other tea party candidates did around the nation.

In July, an Ivan Moore Research (D) poll on put Murkowski at 62%and Miller at 30%. Days later, a Hellenthal & Assoc. (R) poll put Murkowski at 69% to Miller's 28%.

By mid July, Miller reported $100K CoH to Murkowski's reported $2.4M. And his 8/4 FEC report showed $84K CoH to Murkowski's $1.8M.

The DNC and the NRCC outraised their competitors by wide margins last month as party committees scramble for last-minute cash to be spent on House, Senate and governors races this year.

The DNC raised just shy of $11.5M in July and spent $11.7M, including nearly $3.8M they sent to state affiliates. The party still has $10.8M on hand and $3.5M in debt.

Meanwhile, the RNC, which has traditionally played a big role in aiding House and Senate GOPers in midterm elections, raised a paltry $4.5M from individuals and PACs last month. The committee won a $900K settlement from an insurance company to bring their total receipts to $5.5M. RNC spokesman Doug Heye confirmed the insurance settlement, but he would not provide details.

The RNC spent $11.1M last quarter and reported only $5.5M in the bank as of Aug. 1, along with a $2.2M in debt. In effect, that means what was once the GOP's fundraising juggernaut began the final 3 months before the election with just $3.2M to spent, along with a $10M line of credit the party approved for itself at a meeting earlier this year.

Just $1.2M in cash went to state parties, the reports, filed late Friday, show. The committee also handed out nearly $300K in in-kind transfers, allowing state parties to use their vaunted voter tracking software, in example. The DNC also spends thousands updating state party voter files, and part of its transfers to state affiliates include employees dispatched to work for dozens of state parties.

Gov. Sean Parnell (R), who stepped up to replace Sarah Palin (R) last year, will face voters for the first time as a gubernatorial candidate on 8/24.

Parnell's top challengers in the GOP primary are Holland America VP/ex-state House Maj. Leader Ralph Samuels (R) and atty/ex-Valdez Mayor Bill Walker (R), both of whom jumped into the race last year. Also in the race are '06 candidate/'08 SEN candidate/drywall-framing contractor/Air Nat'l Guard vet Gerald Heikes (R), '06 candidate/engineer Merica Hlatcu (R), and trucker/musician Sam Little (R).

Parnell has consistently led in polls. A March Basswood Research (R) poll showed Parnell leading Samuels 69%-9% with Walker at 4%. By late July the challengers had made slight gains: a Hellenthal & Assoc. (R) poll showed Parnell leading Walker 60%-15%, with Samuels at 13 percent. With the two splitting any anti-incumbent sentiment, it looks unlikely that either will prevail.

The notoriously un-charismatic Parnell has been nicknamed "Captain Zero" and the "Oatmeal Governor." But many in AK, exhausted by the tornado of Sarah Palin, seem to see the charisma deficit as a plus in their governor.

However, Parnell has recently faced some staffing mini-scandals as two advisers resigned amid controversy. The advisers were both state legislators when Parnell hired them, and the AK Constitution prohibits legislators from accepting jobs created during their time in office.
Walker and Samuels have also been hammering Parnell for his lack of presence on the campaign trail, particularly in debates, as well as for what they allege is a general lack of leadership.

When Nancy Pelosi called the House back into session earlier this month to pass a $26B state aid stimulus package, she probably didn't consider she was forcing a number of early '12 contenders to walk an awkward political tightrope.

The 3 sitting governors rumored to be mulling WH'12 runs have all been put into a difficult position over accepting more federal stimulus dollars. On one hand, MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty, IN Gov. Mitch Daniels and MS Gov. Haley Barbour all have reptuations to defend as deficit hawks and fiscal conservatives as they weigh a national campaign. On the other hand, they have to consider the very real concerns of state employees and concerned constituents who would benefit from millions of extra federal dollars for teachers, schools and social programs like Medicaid.

Daniels already ended up in a flap with state Dems who say that he flip-flopped on accepting stimulus funds. In Feb '10, Daniels signed onto a letter with 42 other governors asking Congress to approve extra matching funds for state Medicaid coffers. Those Medicaid funds were including in the Aug. bill signed by Pres. Obama. But Daniels went on Fox News Sunday and denounced the bill, which hadn't yet been signed.

"It's probably not going to help the economy. It's this notion sort of a trickle-down government. You pour a few more 'bajillion' dollars in the top of the funnel and maybe a little demand and a few private sector jobs will fall out the bottom. It's really not the way to do it" he told Fox.

What followed was state-level wrangling over whether Daniels was being hypocritical. "The governor's position has always been the same. He doesn't agree with the administration's stimulus policies. ... But if we get a check, we'll cash it," Daniels spokesperson Jane Jankowski clarified.

For the first time, ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R) is mentioning GOP opponent businessman Bill Binnie (R) in a TV ad. The ad pushes back against a round of negative TV and radio ads from the businessman and paints him as a liberal. "Trailing in the polls, liberal millionaire Bill Binnie attacks Kelly Ayotte," says the narrator in the ad.

The basic line of attack in the Ayotte ad (Binnie is a liberal) is the same as what is seen in an attack spot from an outside group that has targeted Binnie. Binnie has been playing defense against the perception that he is liberal, recently launching an ad of his own in which he insists that immigrants learn English.

Ayotte's move is intriguing, as she is leading in the polls and Binnie is already under fire on multiple fronts. This week, a scathing front-page editorial from the New Hampshire Union-Leader's publisher -- in response to an ad Binnie took out in the newspaper -- was published. But Binnie's wealth means he can keep cranking out new negative ads in the final weeks leading up to the primary, so direct push-back from the Ayotte campaign makes a certain degree of sense.

The ad war stands in contrast to public appearances by the candidates at debates this week: Both Binnie and Ayotte have been very cordial in the public meetings. Meanwhile, NH GOP chair John Sununu has been pushing for GOP candidates to be more positive in the campaign -- a proposition that looks increasingly unlikely at this point.

Ayotte's ad, "Taxing":

The Binnie campaign responded to the ad, saying saying Ayotte is "desperate." "The negative personal attacks are a disappointment but at least she isn't hiding behind other groups; we can see her in the bright light of day," said Binnie campaign manager Bryan Lanza. "She must be getting desperate."

Sunday

Meet the Press hosts Sen. Min. Leader Mitch McConnell (KY), MI Gov. Jennifer Granholm (D), ex-House Maj. Leader/Freedomworks PAC chair Dick Armey, ex-Rep. Rick Lazio (R), Atlantic's Jeff Goldberg, Wall Street Journal's Paul Gigot and BBC's Katty Kay.

Face the Nation hosts Iraq/Gen. Ray Odierno, Sen. Lindsey Graham (R-SC) and author Greg Mortenson.

This Week hosts Afghan Pres. Hamid Karzai, ASMA exec. dir. Daisy Khan, Rabbi Joy Levitt, Bloomberg's Al Hunt, Clinton Labor sec. Robert Reich, PBS' Judy Woodruff and Washington Post's George Will.

Fox News Sunday hosts ex-IL Gov. Rod Blagojevich(D) and FNC correspondent Jennifer Griffin.

State of the Union hosts Iraq/Gen. Ray Odierno, ex-U.S. Ambassador to Iraq. Zalmay Khalilzad, Ret. Adm. William Fallon, Ret. Gen. Richard Myers and ex-DNC Chair Howard Dean.

Other Weekend Shows

The DNC should put a photo of George W. Bush on its wall. No single person has been more responsible for Dems' success over the last 2 cycles. But the Bush bogeyman train is finally running out of steam.

-- Dems are spotlighting Bush in a new cable ad in which they tout themselves as forward-moving, while the GOP is the party of the past. And Pres. Obama likes to talk about the GOP majorities, and by implication, his predecessor, driving the economy "into the ditch." But there are inherent problems with both tactics, problems that make them markedly less effective.

-- First, voters clearly don't like the forward direction in which Dems are moving. The stimulus generated spending concerns. Health care opened Pandora's box. And recent polls even show fin-reg isn't all that popular. Second, voters want forward-looking solutions; everyone gets that the economy went south under the GOP, and that's why they elected the new guy to fix it. Voters don't believe Obama has done that fixing well enough.

The focus on Bush is reminiscent of another irrational obsession with a rival -- the GOP's insistence on using Nancy Pelosi in seemingly every ad they run. Bush isn't going to move a lot of numbers for Dems, just like Pelosi hasn't worked for the GOP. Both parties would be better off focusing their efforts elsewhere.

IL Gov. Pat Quinn (D) has been on the job for about 18 months, but he hasn't had much of a honeymoon -- and now top Dem strategists close to the Obama team are beginning to believe he's almost certain to lose his seat this Nov.

The latest: Quinn has fired his media firm, AKPD, and gone with a different ad guru. AKPD is the firm formerly run by Pres. Obama's senior strategist, David Axelrod, and campaign manager David Plouffe.

"We and the Quinn campaign agreed that our divergent approaches to disciplined, professional communications are incompatible. We wish Pat well," AKPD said in an unusually terse statement, first published by the Capitol Fax Blog.

In AKPD's place, Quinn picked up Joe Slade White, a former advisor to VP Joe Biden's campaign and also crafted spots for oil barron T. Boone Pickens.

The DSCC had another strong fundraising month in July, narrowly outraising its Republican counterpart.

The Dems are reporting $4.4M raised for July. That's approximately $300K more than their GOP counterpart, which is reporting $4.16M.

In CoH, the Democrats have an advantage, having $22.46M in their bank account to the NRSC's $21.1M.

The DSCC doled out more money during July, spending $3.5M to the NRSC's $2.6M.

That means the NRSC netted more money during July. The Republicans added about $1.4M to its bank account, having finished June with $19.7M in the bnak.

The DSCC's bank account grew by just less than $1M since last month when they finished with $21.5 CoH.

The numbers show that while the Dems face an uphill battle this year, they have been successful at raising money. The DSCC has outraised the NRSC in 4 of the past 5 months.

Democratic Sen. Blanche Lincoln is up with her first ads of the general election, including one that highlights her differences with Republican challenger John Boozman .

In the contrast ad, Lincoln touches on one of the Dems go to issues: Social Security. She also hits the Republican for supporting a flat tax.

"John and I have serious differences," Lincoln says. "Unlike John, I'm against privatizing Social Security and Medicare. And I think John's idea for a 23 percent national sales tax on everything you buy is just a plain bad idea."

Lincoln is also airing a positive ad that explains her vote on the Democratic health care reform bill.

"Some of you are angry that it went too far," Lincoln says. "Others say it didn't go far enough. After years of health insurance horror stories, it was clear we needed reform but a government-run program wasn't right for Arkansas, and I made sure we stopped that."

UPDATE: The Boozman campaign has responded to Lincoln's ad, saying the attack "reek[s] of pure desperation."Next thing you know she will be accusing Congressman Boozman of wearing a Florida hat at a Razorback game," said Sarah Huckabee Sanders, Boozman's campaign manager.

In another sign that the Democratic brand - and platform - is struggling in Missouri, Senate contender Robin Carnahan has reversed her position on extending the Bush tax cuts - opening herself up to charges of flip flopping.

"We're still in the midst of a downturn in the economy, so we need to keep those tax cuts in place - all of them," Carnahan said at the Missouri State Fair on Thursday, per the AP .

The remarks contrast a February radio interview in which Carnahan said she favors extending the tax cuts for the middle class, but not on the country's wealthiest.

With the statement, Carnahan now has a very similar position on the issue as her GOP opponent, Rep. Roy Blunt. The Blunt camp welcomed the reversal, and campaign sources said they are considering hitting Carnahan for flip flopping.

"With only about 11 weeks left in the election, Missourians won't be fooled by Robin Carnahan's last-ditch gimmicks," said Blunt spokesperson Rich Chrismer.

The Carnahan camp says the reversal is not a sign of Carnahan distancing herself from DC Dems or Obama. If that were the case, they insist, Carnahan would be turning her back on the party on every issue. The new position, they say, is simply a result of the economy continuing the sputter along, which she blames on the economic policies that Blunt supported in DC.

Carnahan "believes we must do everything we can to help our small businesses create jobs and get our economy back on track - not raise taxes on families," said Carnahan spokesman Linden Zakula .

Still, there is little question that MO is not very hospitable to Dems right now. Pres. Obama is hanging on to an approval rating in the 30s and other polling shows that this purple state appears to be trending red.

That is forcing Carnahan to chart her own path, especially on economic issues like taxes. But it's also a sign that Dems may have trouble playing in MO - one of their few opportunities to pick up a seat in the Senate.

See also: DSCC Planning Ads For Carnahan, Conway

The number of Americans who believe Pres. Obama is a Muslim is on the rise, according to a new survey from the Pew Research Center. It is the latest indication that, though he is arguably the most famous person in the world, Obama remains very much undefined -- especially among those who are predisposed to dislike him based on his party affiliation.

Nearly one in 5 Americans -- 18% -- say they believe Obama is Muslim, an increase of 7 points since the same question was asked in March '09. A higher proportion of self-identified GOPers, 31%, say he is Muslim, while just 10% of Dems and 18% of independents believe it to be so.

What's more, only 34% say Obama is Christian, the correct answer. That's down 14 points since the March poll. Fully 43% say they don't know what Obama's religion is, a 9-point increase.

Obama won election thanks to a diverse coalition, part of which includes a segment of Dems and independent voters who typically vote GOP in federal races. But, according to the Pew survey, the very voters who put Obama in office are the ones whose opinions seem the most malleable.

The biggest jumps among those who now say Obama is Muslim came among those with the best educations and the highest salaries. One in 5 voters who make more than $100K a year believe Obama practices Islam, up from 4% a year ago. The number of college graduates who agree has risen 8 points; among those with some college education, the number is up 10 points.

Just half of those who made more than $100K believe Obama is a Christian, down 20 points in a year and a half. The number who believe that about Obama has fallen 17 points among college graduates, 15 points among white voters and 19 points among Catholics.

Though Obama's views on Islam have once again become national news thanks to a controversy over a planned Islamic center and mosque near Ground Zero in NY, his comments in support of the owners' rights to build the center did not influence the poll. The survey was conducted July 21-Aug. 5; Obama did not make his comments until Aug. 13.

The DSCC has reserved air time in October for KY and MO SEN, sources tell Hotline On Call. The committee is planning to spend $4M in MO for a statewide broadcast ad and $1.3M in KY for a statewide ad campaign. 

The ads buys will bolster the campaigns of Dem nominees Robin Carnahan in MO and Jack Conway in KY.

Democrats privately acknowledge that KY SEN and MO SEN are the party's best chances to pick up Senate seats. Rand Paul's openly libertarian views in a state that relies on government funding has cost him some support, and Democrats have been hammering away at his recent comment downplaying the drug problem in eastern Kentucky.

Dems are also conducting focus groups in MO, according to sources, and have found that Roy Blunt's ties to leadership in Washington could help Carnahan close the gap in the race, according to a Dem source.

That being said, this is still tough territory for Dems. Pres. Obama lost MO in '08 and he is currently holding on to a dismal approval rating in the 30s in the state.

UPDATE: The NRSC is out with a statement saying that the ads show Dems are concerned about their candidates. "It's clear that rubber stamp Robin Carnahan and liberal trial lawyer Jack Conway's campaigns are justifiably worried about their chances in November," NRSC spokeswoman Amber Marchand said. 

Good Friday morning. Hope you have some good plans lined up for the weekend. Here is what we are watching today: Grayson in some trouble, Dems hope to capitalize on Rivera, Blunt in crisis control and Gonzo weighs in on the 14th Amendment.

Alan Grayson: Ruh roh. The FL DEM flame thrower may be in some hot water following a report that he allegedly intervened in an OSHA investigation into the death of a SeaWorld killer whale trainer. Grayson acknowledged he contacted OSHA to the Orlando Sentinel, but didn't say much else.

It is worth noting that Grayson is considered well to the left of his Republican leaning FL 08 district. He's proven to be an amazing fundraiser, but this is still a leading pick up opportunity for the GOP.

Not a lot is known about Grayson's involvement because neither OSHA or Grayson's office is talking. Nevertheless, this whole thing smells, well, fishy. http://bit.ly/ca0QPE

Rivera, Day 2: FL 25 GOPer David Rivera may be the gift that keeps on giving for Democrats. The DCCC is looking to capitalize on several damaging stories and leverage them against other GOP recruits. The DCCC strategy: Tie Rivera to other damaged GOP House candidates. Rivera's rap sheet: He was accused of domestic violence in the 1990s and he allegedly ran a delivery truck off the road because he contained mailers that targeted him. http://bit.ly/9QlKOB, http://bit.ly/a7fM6J

Let Me Be Blunt: GOP Rep. and MO SEN nominee Roy Blunt needs to change the narrative today. Blunt's campaign sparked controversy Thursday when it posted - then pulled down - a web video that featured footage of Ground Zero just after the 9/11 attacks overlaid with remarks made by DEM nominee Sec/State Robin Carnahan about the proposed plans to build a mosque near the site. The Blunt campaign immediately responded that the ad "did not reflect the right tone" and sought to distance Blunt from the ad, saying he didn't know about it. http://bit.ly/b8ZiSo

Gonzo on the 14th: Bush AG Alberto Gonzales is weighing in on the debate on the 14th Amendment and he isn't in line with other GOPers. In a Washington Post op-ed to run on Sunday, Gonzales weighs in fully on the debate over whether all children born in the U.S. - regardless of whether their parents are U.S. citizens - should be granted U.S. citizenship.

"As the nation's former chief law enforcement officer and a citizen who believes in the rule of law, I cannot condone anyone coming into this country illegally," Gonzales writes. "However, as a father who wants the best for my own children, I understand why these parents risk coming to America -- especially when there is little fear of prosecution. If we want to stop this practice, we should pass and enforce comprehensive immigration legislation rather than amend our Constitution."

Gonzales' remarks are at odds with many recent statements by members of the GOP caucus. It is worth noted that Gonzales' boss in DC, Pres. George W. Bush likely wouldn't have been on board with those GOP statements, either. http://bit.ly/dzhZ5F

What else are you watching today? The comments section awaits below.

The general election in PA will be a strictly bipartisan affair after a judget ordered several Libertarian candidates off the ballot on Wednesday.

The Libertarian candidates, running for GOV, LG and SEN, abandoned their legal fight over a GOP-backed challenge to their nominating petitions.

Gov. nominee Marakay Rogers, LG nominee Kat Valleley and Sen. nominee Douglas Jamison all got the boot from Judge P. Kevin Brobson after he spent 2 days scrutinizing their ballot petitions. The candidates all admitted they likely did not have the necessary number of valid signatures.

They were only the latest candidates to lose their places. Earlier in the week, SEN hopeful Mel Packer (Green) and GOV hopeful John Krupa running on the Tea Party ticket both ended their candidacies. In additon to the ballot challenge, Krupa's candidacy was marred by allegations that he was a Dem planted as a Tea Party candidate to draw votes away from GOP nominee Tom Corbett.

Recall that just after the '09 elections, VA Gov. Bob McDonnell (R) was heralded as the savior of the GOP while NJ Gov. Chris Christie (R) was that other guy who won. Now, through no fault of his own, McDonnell has lost that crown, and the roles have been dramatically reversed.

-- A new Q poll shows 51% of NJ voters approve of Christie's job performance, 4 points higher than Pres. Obama. That's in a state in which voters hate their elected officials, and one that gave Obama 57% of the vote. What's more, Christie's approval ratings are still high after his first budget cycle, in which he had to make cuts.

-- Christie's victories against unions and Dems are winning attention, and admiration, from the high-profile conservative set. And he's interested in bigger jobs, which he proved by installing his chief ally on the RNC, ensuring a national consigliere. The surest sign he's a national player: There are early whispers that he's not conservative enough, something no one bothers to say about a non-factor.

-- Christie won't make a WH'12 bid. He wants to win re-election by a convincing margin in '13 first. If he wins then, he'll book a flight to Des Moines in Dec. '13.

More importantly, Christie's strategy can guide the GOP this year: He won in '09 by offering principles, not a specific set of policy prescriptions. That's an interesting idea for anyone crafting the GOP's new version of the Contract with America.

We know about Republicans running against House Speaker Nancy Pelosi (D-CA), but how about Democrats running against her?

That appears to be what's happening in Rep. Joe Donnelly's latest campaign ad. Donnelly is running against state Rep. Jackie Walorski (R) in IN 02.

The narrator touts Donnelly as the "most independent congressman" (of all time?! We jest) and says that he "voted against Nancy Pelosi's energy tax on Hoosier families."

Donnelly is running in a slightly Republican leaning district so it makes sense that he's brandishing his independent credentials. Still, this is one of the first times we've seen a Dem use Pelosi in this way in an ad.

The recent highly-contested Republican primaries have produced a slate of candidates who, on the positive side for the GOP, are battle tested.

On the negative side, the primaries also produced hurt feelings. And in several cases, Republican primary losers who have yet to throw their political capital behind the winners in a show of unity.

In Washington, Clint Didier (R) released a statement on his website that reads like a concession speech, but makes no mention of any willingness to work for GOP nominee Dino Rossi. (Didier has reportedly said he wants to meet with Rossi.) In CO SEN, Jane Norton hasn't signed on to any unity events with GOP nominee Ken Buck . Sue Lowden did endorse Sharron Angle on the night of the NV SEN GOP primary, but reportedly hasn't done anything for her since. Rob Simmons appeared to run an on again/off again campaign because he didn't like now GOP nominee Linda McMahon and now doesn't appear to be throwing his weight behind her.

It's not limited to the Senate, either. Immediately following the primary in WA 03 this week, David Castillo said he "wishes" GOP nominee Jaime Herrera "all the best," but stopped short of endorsing her. And in CO GOV there has been all sorts of turmoil on the GOP side, as state GOP Chairman Dick Wadhams had to wade into the the ongoing skirmish between former Rep. Tom Tancredo and GOP nominee Dan Maes .

Some of these cases may be instructive in the debate over the effect of the tea party on the GOP. In CO SEN and NV SEN, the establishment candidates have refused to back the tea party supported candidates who won. Somewhat similarly, Simmons clearly viewed McMahon as an outsider candidate in CT SEN.

This isn't entirely limited to the Republican side of the aisle. Rep. Kendrick Meek is currently locked in a nasty primary against Jeff Greene in the FL SEN Dem primary. But so far, there appear to be far fewer cases of Dem primary losers fueding with the winner.

The big question all this raises is whether or not this disunity matters for the GOP in November. At this point it is unclear. In may not matter in Washington. Didier only earned a little more than 12% of the vote, and it has been pretty clear from the beginning that Rossi is the strongest candidate.

There is also an argument that by the time November rolls around, this disunity will be forgotten. UVA political science professor Larry Sabato said there is plenty of academic research that suggests divisive primaries don't negatively affect the nominee.

"Despite what people think, divisive primaries have very little affect on November results," Sabato said. "The reason is not that disunity is helpful, it's unhelpful. The reason is even disgruntled challengers usually come around by November." Sabato added that by November, the usual electoral wave takes over, overcoming the sour grapes following a primary.

Even so, this may be an atypical year and this disunity is worth keeping an eye on. If nothing else, it may create headaches for party officials. As one senior Dem official put it: "Can you imagine if [Dem PA SEN nominee and Rep.] Joe Sestak and [Sen.] Arlen Specter were still fueding? It would be a pain in the ass."

UPDATE: A reader points out another instance of infighting on the Dem side: OH SEN. Sec/State Jennifer Brunner appeared very reluctant to campaign for Lt. Gov. and Dem nominee Lee Fisher following the primary. Brunner did reportedly eventually come around, but she appeared very reluctant to do anything on behalf of Fisher.

In the latest installment of Hotline TV, Reid Wilson and Sean Sullivan analyze Washington primary results and look ahead to Patty Murray vs. Dino Rossi.

The influential anti-tax Club for Growth waded into general election House races for the first time on Thursday, endorsing 4 candidates: Mick Mulvaney in SC 05, Tim Griffin in AR 02, Stephen Fincher TN 08 and Todd Young IN 09.

The endorsements are notable because the Club is a proven fundraising force. The organization doesn't give directly to its candidates, but it does bundle and hit up is membership for contributions.

The Club's endorsements could have a significant impact in some of these races. In IN 09, Young is locked in a tight race against Rep. Baron Hill (D). That race is a top target for the NRCC. It is rated as a toss up by the Cook Political Report even though it is a R+6 district. Young has struggled raising money. He has $259K in his bank account compared to Hill's $1.1M.

TN 08 is another high profile race this year since the retirement of Rep. John Tanner (D). Fincher is running against state Sen. Roy Herron (D) and released a poll on Wednesday showing him holding a double-digit lead. Fincher's bank account is much smaller than Herron's, however: Fincher has $421K CoH and Herron has $1.1M.

SC 05 is another toss up with Mulvaney taking on Dem Rep. John Spratt . Spratt holds a $1.2M to $472K CoH advantage there.

The endorsement may matter least in AR 02, where Griffin has a $315K in the bank and Dem Joyce Elliott has $106K in her war chest.

Former Rep. J.D. Hayworth is closing out his challenge to Republican Sen. John McCain by sticking with the strategy that looked like it would be successful when he began his campaign months ago: Sticking with the most controversial issues of the cycle.

The McCain/Hayworth match up has been one of the the most negative primaries of the cycle. Hayworth rooted his campaign on the immigration issue - probably the most prevalent wedge issue this cycle. His attacks on whether the '08 GOP presidential nominee would support a path to citizenship for illegal immigrants were bombastic from the beginning. As a result they earned plenty of media attention (I mean, here we are, after all).

The final Hayworth ads as the race heads into next Tuesday's primary illustrate the strategy. In a new web ad that went up earlier this week, Hayworth criticizes McCain for his response to a question on the 14th Amendment on Sean Hannity's show on Fox News. "He is not going to fight for the original intent of the 14th Amendment," Hayworth says. "John apparently never picked up the Constitution." What follows is a monologue on birthright citizenship and whether the Constitution should be amended.

Hayworth also went up with a new radio ad on Wednesday in which he seeks a contrast with McCain on three of the most controversial issues this cycle. "A is for amnesty," he says, "B is for bailouts...and C is for cap and trade."

Yet for all the bluster and media coverage, Hayworth goes into primary day as a significant long shot. Polls show McCain with a double digit lead and his campaign appears uninterested in Hayworth's attacks and confident heading into the primary. McCain went up with his final ad of the primary earlier this week and it's positive. Hayworth's negative ads haven't moved the needle in their internal polling, according to campaign sources. Brian Rogers, a spokesman for McCain, said the McCain camp has effectively discredited Hayworth's candidacy.

"The damage is done," said McCain spokesman Brian Rogers. "The guy is on life support."

In a cycle where there appears to be a significant anti-incumbent sentiment among voters, this is one example where a the challenger never really gained traction against what can only be described as one of the most establishment of establishment candidates. But let's not read too much into Hayworth's struggles; he was never the right candidate to carry the outsider mantle. There was plenty of material from Hayworth's days in Congress and as a lobbyist from which McCain could draw.

Good Thursday Morning. What Hotline On Call is watching today: Pres. Obama's struggles with perception, a GOP House candidate in crisis control, House Dems forced to react to House Speaker Nancy Pelosi's mosque comments and GOP struggles in Florida.

Obama's Optics: Yes, Pres. Obama just went on a 5 state political tour in which he leveled his latest charges against Republicans. And, in the process, raised serious cash for Dem candidates across the country. But everyone is going to forget that today. Obama is heading to Martha's Vineyard with his family for a little R&R. The problem? People aren't going to like seeing the president stroll on ritzy beaches while the economy continues to struggle.

And there are other signs today that Obama has a perception problem. A new poll from the Pew Research Center finds that a growing % of Americans think Obama is a Muslim. Nearly one in five (18%) say Obama is a Muslim - up from 11% in March 2009. More troubling for the admin.: Just a third (34%) say Obama is a Christian - down from 48% in the 2009 survey. 31% of GOPers say Obama is a Muslim. He isn't doing much better among Dems: less than half of Dems (46%) say Obama is a Christian (!). That number is down from 55% in March of 2009. Among independents, 34% say he's a Christian, 18% say he's a Muslim - that number is up 8%. And here's the real kicker: This poll was taken before Obama made his remarks about the proposed construction of a mosque at Ground Zero, which, as this Gallup poll shows, aren't going over particularly well.

David Rivera: The GOP House candidate in FL 25 has landed himself in hot water. Not one, but two stories have surfaced that will have Rivera's campaign playing defense today. First is a rather bizarre story that Rivera literally ran a mail truck off a road because it contained damning flyers about him 8 years ago. Second are allegations that Rivera was accused of domestic violence in the 1990s. FL 25 is one of the few districts where Dems can play offense this year. Rep. Mario Diaz-Balart (R) is vacating the district to run in FL 21 and Democrats have landed a credible candidate in Joe Garcia, their 2008 nominee.. The Cook Political Report rates the race as lean Republican, but Dems will have a strong opportunity to compete if Rivera proves to be a deeply flawed candidate. 

GOP Problems in FL?: The chaos of the GOP FL GOV primary appears to be catching up with the GOP. State CFO and Dem nominee Alex Sink , who has largely stood back and watched the civil war on the GOP side, is creeping ahead of both GOP candidates, according to a Quinnipiac poll out this morning. Sink leads GOP AG Bill McCollum 31% to 29% and businessman Rick Scott 33% to 29%.

In FL SEN, the same Quinnipiac poll found independent Gov. Charlie Crist leading the field and pulling a lot of support from Democrats. He leads Republican Marco Rubio 39% to 32% with Dem Rep. Kendrick Meek pulling 16%. If Jeff Greene  beats Meek in the primary, he gets 15% to Crist's 40% and Rubio's 32%. Crist is carrying 45% or more of Dems surveyed, a surprisingly high number that - one would believe - will fall by Election Day.

These numbers are not as good for Rubio as the Mason-Dixon poll taken Aug. 9-11, which showed Meek surging to the benefit of Rubio. Rubio led Crist by a 38% to 33% margin in that survey, with Meek pulling 18%. (A quick methodology note: the Mason-Dixon poll surveyed voters who vote regularly in state elections, an often more reliable metric than the Quinnipiac survey of all registered voters).

Republican NJ Gov. Chris Christie , who has taken controversial steps since taking office, has a higher approval rating than Pres. Obama in New Jersey, according to a new poll released Thursday.

Just more than half - 51% - approve of Christie's performance as governor while 36% disapprove in the Quinnipiac poll. Obama has a 47% approval rating in the survey and the same percentage disapprove of the president's performance.

"New Jerseyans are getting used to their new Gov., Christopher Christie, as his job approval breaks the 50 percent mark," said Maurice Carroll , director of the Quinnipiac University Polling Institute. "But familiarity hasn't helped him much with Democrats. A lot of voters still think Christie is a bully, but the victories he chalked up in the legislature earn him good marks for leadership."

Christie performs even better among independents. 61% of independents approve of Christie's performance, 29% disapprove. For Obama, 41% of independents approve and 53% disapprove.

Christie as been very aggressive in dealing with the NJ state legislature in an effort to balance NJ's budget. In spite of that, half - 51% - said Christie is a "leader" while 39% say he is a "bully."

The numbers for Obama are particularly startling for Dems. Obama carried New Jersey in 2008 with nearly 57% of the vote. More, during the 2009 NJ GOV race, Obama stumped with then incumbent Gov. Jon Corzine (D) in hopes of bolstering his struggling campaign.

The Quinnipiac poll was conducted Aug. 9-17. It surveyed 1,190 NJ voters and had a margin of error of +/- 2.8%.

Dems long ago acknowledged they faced a difficult, maybe even prohibitive, electoral climate. But, they said, they'll have the money to swamp the GOP. Now is the time they're actually proving it.

-- Senate Dems have been running ads for months, and in many cases they're already blasting their opponents. Sens. Boxer, Murray and Feingold, the Dems' firewall against the GOP onslaught, have gone negative early, making use of their money advantage. Now, Reps. Scott Murphy (D-NY), Dina Titus (D-NV) and Betsy Markey (D-CO) are launching their own ads this week, aimed at defining themselves. It's tough to find a Dem strategist who can recall an incumbent going on TV in typically-dead Aug.

-- In total, nearly 2 dozen vulnerable House Dems have already gone on the air. Their goal of defining the debate, and defining their opponents' image, is an extension of the strategy aimed at making the election a choice, rather than a referendum. In truth, the "choice" is just the first part -- making the other guy look like an unacceptable option is the second part of that strategy. Dems are leveraging their money lead to seize what offense they can.

But it's exactly the choice GOPers tried to give voters in '06, as well. The "obstructionist, Iraq-surrendering party of No" Dems won enough seats to take back the majority that year. The key for Dems will be finding the issue that makes the GOP an unacceptable choice -- if there is one.

MO Sec/State Robin Carnahan (D) is up with a negative TV ad that reveals her offensive strategy against Rep. Roy Blunt (R) in MO SEN: Paint him as a creature of Washington, DC.

The ad also touches upon another big question facing Dems this year: Whether they can effectively use Pres. Bush to attack Republicans. In Carnahan's ad, she goes after Blunt for his ties to the Bush admin. as it relates to the bailouts.

The ad begins with Bob Schieffer saying, "Here in the studio with me is Congressman Roy Blunt (R-07), he carried the water for the Bush administration, did the heavy lifting, was instrumental in getting the bailout passed."

Carnahan struck a similar theme in her first negative ad.

The ad comes on the heels of a a Blunt ad that illustrates the tension in the race: Blunt is running as far from Washington as possible. "Who's Robin Carnahan kidding?" the narrator says. "Roy Blunt is a strong, independent voice for conservative values, with a long record of cracking down on Wall Street abuse."

Ret. LA Supreme Court Justice Chet Traylor launched a radio ad Wednesday that slams GOP Sen. David Vitter on personal terms.

Traylor, who is challenging Vitter in the Aug. 28 GOP primary, is airing the ad statewide on all major radio stations, said Roy Fletcher, his consultant.

"A judge found Vitter committed battery on a woman. It was an unprovoked attack," the ad's narrator says. "Next, Vitter's notorious scandal with the D.C. madam. She ran an escort service for powerful men in Washington, if you know what I mean. Then a former prostitute said she, well, serviced Vitter on numerous occasions in New Orleans. That's family values, right?"

The Vitter camp does not appear to be concerned with Traylor's ads, or his candidacy for that matter. Vitter has remained focused on his Dem challenger, Rep. Charlie Melancon . To their credit, ten days of radio ads typically doesn't sway an election and the little polling that's out there on the primary has shown Vitter to have a commanding lead.

Traylor isn't letting up, though. Fletcher said the campaign is raising money as quickly as possible and plans to go on TV next week in the run up to the primary. "He's doing what he can do," Fletcher said, in his thick Louisiana drawl. "He's doing alright."

Check out audio of the ad here:

The DNC supplied hundreds of thousands of dollars to the NE Dem Party just after the Senate passed health care reform, money that was used to pay for ads on behalf of Sen. Ben Nelson (D-NE), one of the final Dem holdouts but ultimately a supporter of the bill.

On Jan. 11, just after the Senate voted on Christmas Eve to pass the bill, the DNC transferred $809K to the NE Dem Party, according to reports filed with the FEC. A month later, on Feb. 11, the DNC transferred another $169K to the party.

NE Dems used the money to run ads defending Nelson's reputation. The state party bought $779K in airtime in Jan., enough to blanket the state with pro-Nelson ads for weeks at a time. The party spent about $95K to produce those ads with Dixon/Davis Media Group.

Nelson used the ads to bolster his image, even though he doesn't face voters again until '12. The ads began airing during the Nebraska-Arizona matchup at the Holiday Bowl, on Dec. 30, touting the bill's benefits. Nelson appears on screen in both spots, but the ads were paid for by the NE Dem Party.

Nelson's spokesman, Jake Thompson, said Nelson had not requested the money from the DNC, Pres. Obama or Senate Dem leadership.

DC Mayor Adrian Fenty (D) has become a polarizing figure in the city and now narrowly trails City Council Chair Vincent Gray (D) in the Sept. 14 Dem primary, according to a new independent poll released today.

The poll, conducted by DC-based Clarus Research Group, shows Gray leading Fenty, 39-36%. Other candidates garner 3%, while 22% of Dems remain undecided.

The vote splits largely along racial lines. Whites favor the Fenty, 61-19%, but African-Americans break for his challenger, 54-16%.

DC Dems are split on Fenty, with 46% having a favorable impression, while 42% view him unfavorably. Just a third of African-American Dems view Fenty favorably.

Gray is viewed favorably by 55% of Dems, while just 20% have an unfavorable impression of him. He is viewed favorably by 70% of African-American Dems but just 39% of white Dems.

The Clarus poll was conducted Aug. 15-16. Clarus surveyed 501 registered Dems; the poll carries a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.

Hotline On Call is still sifting through the results in Washington last night as the campaign committees seek to spin the results to their liking. Here are the results that jump out:

WA SEN: With 59% of precincts reporting, Dem Sen. Patty Murray has pulled 46% and Republican Dino Rossi has earned nearly 34%.

WA 03: Establishment favorite Jaime Herrera (R) will head into the general against Dem Denny Heck. Heck earned 32% to Herrera's 27%, with 69% of precincts reported.

WA 02: Incumbent Dem Rick Larsen earned 43% in the primary to GOP challenger John Koster's 41% with 58% of precincts reported.

In WA SEN, the Dem and GOP committees are, as they have been, trying to spin the percentages to their liking. NRSC Chairman John Cornyn (R-TX) said that Murray's failure to reach 50% shows she is vulnerable. "It speaks volumes about the opportunity that Republicans have this November with Dino Rossi as our party's nominee for the U.S. Senate," Cornyn said. The DSCC has been equally strident in blasting Rossi's 34%, saying he has pulled higher percentages in similar fields in his two runs for governor. The DSCC is also pointing to reports that Rossi's opponent on the GOP side and former AK Gov. Sarah Palin endorsee Clint Didier isn't lining up behind Rossi yet.

Don't miss the main point here: Murray, who was considered one of the safest Dems in the country at the beginning of the cycle, is in trouble. As we noted in the Starting Lineup today, a good sign of the Dem concern is Pres. Obama taking it to Rossi yesterday. This race is going to be aggressive and expensive.

In WA 03 and 02, the GOP can barely contain their glee. The NRCC got the candidate it wanted in WA 03 with Herrera. This seat, vacated by retiring Rep. Brian Baird (D), is in jeopardy for Dems. Republicans can - and are - pointing to the close results in WA 02 to show that they can make inroads in the Pacific Northwest this fall.

"The RGA is not involved in the Florida GOP primary now nor do we plan to be. However, specifically related to the latest ad Rick Scott is running against Bill McCollum, we want to set the record straight.

"The truth is that Bill McCollum's leadership is part of what led to the removal of Jim Greer. This ad distorts the facts and was clearly created without any knowledge of what actually took place. It has no place in this primary.

"We ask Mr. Scott to pull this ad and move forward in the primary in a constructive manner."

Ex-U.S. Atty Matt Mead (R) barely won the GOP nomination, edging out Aud. Rita Meyer (R) by a slim margin. With 100% of precincts reporting, Mead has 30,272 votes and Meyer has 29,558 votes -- a difference of just 714 votes, less than 1% and within the margin for a recount. The AP has not made a call, but Meyer spokesperson Rachel Girt confirms that Meyer conceded to Mead late Tuesday. Rancher/ex-WY Dept. of Ag. dir./ex-state House Maj. Leader Ron Micheli (R) finished third with finished third with 27,592 votes.

Mead had the largest war chest in the GOP field during the primary, drawing largely from his own money. He ran ads touting his experience as a prosecutor and casting himself as a "commonsense conservative." Meyer had the backing of Sarah Palin (R), who endorsed her in July, calling her a "unique blend of steel magnolia and mama grizzly."

Mead will enter the general election contest against the Dem nominee -- state Dem chair Leslie Petersen (D) -- with a huge financial advantage, and will be a heavy favorite to win. The GOP's significant advantage in registered voters will also be a big boost for Mead.

Good Wednesday morning. Hotline On Call is going to be counting on coffee today after last night's late night results on the West Coast. What we're watching today: Pres. Obama swings through Ohio, Ayotte faces her first real test, Giannoulias launches a campaign tour, it's go time for Dino and CA GOP picks up a state Senate seat last night.

Lee Fisher: With Pres. Obama in Ohio today, watch Dem Lt. Gov. and Senate nominee Lee Fisher who doesn't seem to like the president. According to the Columbus Dispatch, Obama has visited the Buckeye State 9 times and Fisher has stayed away. On Wednesday, Obama will be fundraising for Gov. Ted Strickland (D) and Fisher is slated to attend. Fisher told the Dispatch that scheduling conflicts have prevented him from joining Obama when he has been in the state. "I intend to be with him every time he's in Ohio," Fisher said. Really? Must read: The Washington Post's Dan Balz has a great take on how Ohio is illustrative of whether Dems can still run against Pres. Bush and Wall Street.

Alexi Giannoulias: Giannoulias will join Sen. Dick Durbin (D) today at the Illinois State Fair. Giannoulias wants to talk about the economy and his jobs plan, but Hotline On Call has a hunch that he's going to be asked about the proposed construction of a mosque near Ground Zero as he embarks on a campaign tour of southern Illinois. Giannoulias said Tuesday that he supports the building of the mosque, while his opponent, GOP Rep. Mark Kirk, thinks it should be built elsewhere. Recent polling shows the Senate race to be neck and neck.

Kelly Ayotte: The Republican AG is going to have to prove her mettle as a candidate today in the NH Senate primary. Her chief rival in the race, businessman Bill Binnie, has gone up with the most aggressive ad of the cycle - hitting Ayotte for her handling of the state's investments. Watch to see how Ayotte responds. Up to this point, Ayotte has had a relatively easy road to the nomination. She has garnered both establishment support and the endorsement of former AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) - a rare combination! If Ayotte falters, it'll open the door both to Binnie and Dem nominee Rep. Paul Hodes, who can use the same line of attack in the general if Ayotte wins the nomination.

Dino Rossi: It's go time for Dino! There will be plenty of analyzing - and over analyzing (Hotline On Call included!) - of the top-two primary in WA SEN last night, but here's what's clear: Dem Sen. Patty Murray is in the fight of her life. A clear sign that Dems are worried? Pres. Obama took Rossi to task yesterday over his opposition to the the Dem financial reform bill. "For him to say we didn't need it," Obama said, "he's counting on amnesia." Zing.

Sam Blakeslee: We know - not exactly a household name. But Blakeslee, a Republican assemblyman, won a special election in the CA state Senate Tuesday night by nearly 5%. The win keeps the seat vacated by now Lt. Gov. Abel Maldonado in GOP hands and prevents CA Dems from getting closer to a two-thirds majority in the state Senate. A two thirds majority would have allowed Dems to bypass GOP opposition on budget and tax meaures. Here's the rub: Dems outnumber Republicans 41% to 34% in the district and the Dem in the race - former Assemblyman John Laird - was backed by...wait for it..Pres. Obama. Blakeslee was backed by GOP Gov. nominee Meg Whitman.

House GOP: Think things are looking good for Republicans? So does political guru Charlie Cook. Cook upped the ante - and the expectations - for the GOP on Tuesday, switching his predictions for 10 seats and saying that Republicans now stand to gain between 35 and 45 seats in the House. And for you odds makers out there, he also said it is more likely that the GOP will win more seats than less.

Poll of the day: The latest Quinnipiac poll in Florida has AG Bill McCollum (R) leading Rick Scott (R) 44% to 35% among likely primary voters. That's nearly a complete reverse from the last Quinnipiac poll, released July 29, where Scott led 43% to 32%. Scott has been particularly aggressive, keep an eye out for another attack ad as we head toward the primary next Tuesday. Meanwhile, Rep. Kendrick Meek is now up 35% to 28% over Jeff Greene in the Sen. Dem primary - another near complete reversal in another very volatile race.

What else are you watching today? The comments section awaits below.

In last night's marquee House primary matchup, ex-state Rep. Denny Heck (D) and state Rep. Jaime Herrera (R) earned the right to face off for retiring Rep. Brian Baird's (D-WA 03) seat. The SW WA open seat is the most evenly divided CD in the state -- and indeed one of the most evenly matched in the nation -- and will be closely watched as a bellwether for the fall's race for the House.

All candidates -- Dems, GOPers and indies -- appeared on the same ballot in the primary, and Heck (32%) and Herrera (27%) took the "top two" positions necessary to move on. Because Heck was the only top-tier Dem running, the real race was for the second ticket to the general, where Herrera and ex-Bush admin. appointee David Castillo (R) were assumed to be the frontrunners.

If Herrera was the choice of many DC and WA establishment GOPers, Castillo was counting on his grassroots appeal and Tea Party connections to get him into that second-place slot. But veteran David Hedrick (R), who gained noteriety for clashing with Baird at a town hall event last summer, was able to out-Tea Party Castillo and with 69% of the vote counted, slid into third place. But Herrera easily outdistanced the two (Hedrick took 13% to Castillo's 12%), and the race for the second slot turned out to be a laugher in favor of Herrera.

Heck represented Clark Co. for 10 years while he was in the legislature, and in the CD's most populous county, he performed well. He slid past Herrera, who also represents the county in the legislature, 32-31%. The Dem performed strongly in liberal Thurston Co., home of the state capital of Olympia, where he claimed a 39-18% margin over Herrera. Anti-war activist Cheryl Crist (D) took a strong 16% there.

For the East Coast, it looks like it is going to be well into the morning before a few results are finalized: WY GOV, WA 03 and the final percentages in WA SEN.

Hotline On Call is going dark for a few hours. We'll be bright-eyed and bushy-tailed in the morning. Check in then for more analysis of the results.

The WY GOP GOV primary remained deadlocked late Tuesday, with ex-U.S. Atty Matt Mead (R) leading Aud. Rita Meyer (R) 29%-28% with 89% of precincts reporting. Not far behind was rancher/ex-WY Dept. of Ag. dir./ex-state House Maj. Leader Ron Micheli (R), at 27%. Meyer, who is backed by Sarah Palin (R) and Mead, who has spent a significant amount of money on the race, entered the day as the favorites.

In the general election, the winner will face state Dem chair Leslie Petersen (D), who won the Dem nod. The AP called the race in favor of Petersen with 79% of precincts reporting and Petersen leading WY DoT pilot Pete Gosar (D) 47%-39%. Petersen's emergence as the nominee is no surprise. She jumped in the race at the last minute, after no big name Dem candidates entered the contest and quickly established herself as the most credible Dem in the field.

Whoever emerges from the GOP race will enter the general election as a heavy favorite. The state leans GOP, and there are many more registered GOP voters than there are registered Dems. In addition to having huge money advantage, the leading GOPers each ran several TV ads during the primary, which should help with name identification.

As expected, Sen. Patty Murray (D) will meet ex-state Sen. Dino Rossi (R) in the WA SEN general election. With 51% of the precincts counted, the AP called the race for the 2, with Murray leading Rossi 47%-34%.

A Murray/Rossi 1-2 finish has been all but assured for months, so all eyes were on what percent of the vote each candidate would get. Each side worked to spin the outcome in advance of the race. In a memo released Monday, the DSCC said Rossi should get at least 46% of the vote, matching an '08 GOV performance in a ten candidate primary field while some GOPers argued a sub-50% finish for Murray should be cause for concern. The final tally may not be known for some time, as WA's mail ballots continue to be tallied.

While the primary has officially ended and the Murray-Rossi general election showdown technically begins now, the 2 have already been running directly against each other for months. Murray recently unleashed a negative ad targeting Rossi while Rossi has focused his attention squarely on Murray, all but completely ignoring other GOPers in the race.

But the trial also exposed two notions that favored the defense: Mr. Blagojevich rarely managed to actually succeed in getting such financial benefits, and much of what he did might also be viewed by some as common, if especially ugly, political deal-making.

In this week's first installment of Hotline TV, Reid Wilson identifies some seats that are missing from the NRCC's target list. And Josh Kraushaar talks about what the list says about the NRCC's money problems.

Check back Thursday for another episode of Hotline TV.

National Dems have spent the last few months wringing their hands over what to do about Sen. Scott Brown (R-MA). Recently, they've been quietly courting the late Sen. Ted Kennedy's widow, Victoria Kennedy as a possible '12 challenger to Brown. But it seems like Kennedy isn't interested in the race.

"I think there's more than one way to serve," Kennedy recently told the Boston Globe "And for me, (running for Senate is) not it. I have enormous respect for people who do. And I think I can have a wonderful, productive life serving, but that doesn't have to be elective office."

But even as Brown may have dodged a Kennedy opponent, he may also be at the forefront of a quiet GOP revival in the bluest of states. In addition to polling as the most popular MA politician with numbers that edge out Pres. Obama, Brown's surprise win has also revitalized the MA GOP in a way that few would have thought possible a few years back. With 28 days to go until the state primary, the GOP is running more House candidates than any time in recent memory.

"It's the Scott Brown effect," said UVA prof. Larry Sabato. "If you were an ambitious Republican, you were stupid to run in a state like Massachusetts in 2008. But 2010, given Scott Brown's performance, all things seem possible."

"I think a lot of is attributable to Scott Brown. He energized the party and people see opportunity," said UMass prof. and Bay State politics watcher Maurice Cunningham.

The MA GOP has long allowed a handful of the state's 10 congressional seats to go uncontested. This year, almost every single one of the MA House delegation has a GOP challenger. 23 Republicans have filed to run in the 9/14 primary, and they'll square off against 9 incumbent Dems. The one open seat in MA-10 created by Rep. Bill Delahunt's (D) retirement is the GOP's best chance for pickup, even if it still remains a long shot. Brown did very well in MA-10, winning about 60%-40% over MA AG Martha Coakley (D).

None of the Dem congressional incumbents are particularly vulnerable, but even drawing GOP challengers means that they'll have to put some time and resources into their reelection races. And a revitalized state GOP could conceivably start winning more seats in the MA legislature, where the Dems currently control about 90% of the seats in both chambers.

Below the jump is the number of seats the GOP left uncontested from 2000-2008, and the Republicans filed to run in this year's primary.

A sign of the times: When Democratic Richard Blumenthal (D) runs against the stimulus and TARP at an AFL-CIO meeting in Connecticut, it's a signal that the administration's policies aren't playing well even in the more-Democratic parts of the country.

Per the Connecticut Mirror:

Richard Blumenthal distanced himself Monday from the Obama administration and the state's Democratic congressional delegation with a forceful denunciation of Washington in a speech to the Connecticut AFL-CIO in Hartford.

The Democratic nominee for U.S. Senate was cheered as he arrived, but his anti-Washington theme drew little applause from a labor audience that had warmly greeted the man Blumenthal hopes to succeed, Sen. Christopher J. Dodd.

Blumenthal says he would have opposed the Trouble Asset Relief Program that bailed out Wall Street. He also objects to the stimulus package as doing too little to help the middle-class.

"I believe that the stimulus was wrongly structured, because it failed to provide jobs and paychecks to ordinary Americans. It unfortunately was inadequately designed to invest in infrastructure, in roads and bridges and schools," Blumenthal said.

Asked how the state could have balanced its budget given the influx of stimulus money for Medicaid, education and other programs, Blumenthal said, "That's an entirely separate question. I would have opposed the stimulus as it was structured."

There are lots of Wall Street voters in Connecticut, particularly those centered in the affluent, western part of the state (Greenwich/Stamford) who are angry with Obama's economic policies from the stimulus to the financial regulation bill.

The fact that Blumenthal, running against a flawed but well-funded Republican (Linda McMahon) is distancing himself from the president is a sign that this race is poised to get more competitive, and that other downballot Democrats in these wealthy districts - Reps. Jim Himes and Chris Murphy -- are in for a tough time come November.

In fact, newly-released internal polls conducted by GOP pollster Whit Ayres shows both those races in competitive territory. Himes, a freshman who has voted with Obama on his signature pieces of legislation (stimulus/health care/cap-and-trade/financial reg.), only leads Republican Dan Debicella by four points, 46 to 42 percent.

Murphy, also a reliable Democratic vote and an up-and-comer in the House, is in better shape, but still at risk. A 48 percent plurality of voters in his district said they would rather "give someone else a chance" with only 42 percent saying they definitely would re-elect him. Murphy is facing Republican Sam Caligiuri in the November general election.

On the surface, the RNC's financial problems aren't that bad. Yes, the party is raising less than it has in previous years, but they don't control the WH or Congress. And with a little more than $8M on hand after debts, the RNC actually has more to spend than the DNC, which has just over $7M after accounting for debts.

But those broad numbers don't tell the real story -- that since the beginning of '09, Dems have been investing millions of dollars in state parties, bolstering a ground game with which the GOP cannot compete. The monetary advantage Dems have spent more than a year and a half building has GOP strategists worried that Dems have already laid an important foundation in critical seats.

In the last 18 months, the DNC, the DCCC and the DSCC have invested more than $18.8M in state parties across the country. By comparison, the RNC, the NRCC and the NRSC have spent just under $10M, according to data compiled by the FEC.

All 3 Dem committees are outspending their GOP rivals. The DSCC has spread nearly $2.2M to 18 states, including a $350K investment in the losing effort against Brown; $313K to the NV Dem Party and $806K in PA, where Sen. Arlen Specter (D) lost his primary. The DCCC, meanwhile, has begun investing in voter-turnout programs in 26 states, spending $1.1M.

The NRSC has spent just $502K, the vast majority of it going to MA. The party spent $2K in CT as well. The NRCC, meanwhile, has dropped money in 5 states, shelling out $165K total.

While spending scandals surrounding softball equipment and risque nightclubs proved a distraction, they didn't consume a significant amount of resources. Instead, the real trouble the GOP is going to face this year is a lack of investment from the RNC.

In midterm election cycles, explained several leading GOP strategists, the NRCC and the NRSC have effectively relied on the RNC to spend its money on turnout operations. Without the ability to do so this year, those same strategists are concerned they may miss out on picking up vulnerable Dem-held seats.

Pres. Obama may not be welcome on the campaign trail in some very competitive House districts this fall, according to new surveys released Monday.

The conservative American Action Forum released a series of 12 polls taken in targeted districts on the East Coast where the incumbent is a Democrat. Taken together, the surveys found 43% view Obama favorably and 50% view him unfavorably.

Other barometers for Democrats are also bad. 52% of voters said it was time to elect someone else compared to 35% who said their current representative deserves reelection. More, respondents prefer a Republican candidate to a Democratic candidate by a 38% to 31% percent margin on a generic ballot test.

Perhaps most concerning for the incumbent Dems: By a 3-to-1 margin, voters say the country is on the wrong track.

It is worth noting, however, that in many of these races the Democrats are maintaining a lead.

The polls were conducted by Ayres, McHenry and Associates.

Get a breakdown of the polls after the jump.

One more thought on the NRCC's planned ad buys we dissected this morning: As with all ad buys, where the NRCC is not spending money may be just as interesting as where it is.

Per David Keating at the Club for Growth, there are 10 districts in the NRCC's "Young Guns" program where the committee is not planning on airing ads (at least not yet). Here are the 10 districts and the GOP candidates.

AR-2 Tim Griffin
FL-22 Allen West
IL-14 Randy Hultgren
NJ-3 Jon Runyan
NM-1 Jon. Barela
NY-29 Tom Reed
OH-13 Tom Ganley
PA-8 Michael Fitzpatrick
VA-11 Keith Fimian
VA-9 Morgan Griffith

Republicans caution that the list is a "down payment" and that they can still revise and add districts (this, after all, is just a plan for airing ads, not ad buys). But, in breaking down these 10, some patterns emerge.

For some of these candidates who are in expensive media markets, like Michael Fitzpatrick, the NRCC's plan may be an indication that they may not get much help from the party in the run up to the midterms.

Some of these candidates probably don't need the help or have substantial resources already. AR-2 is open (Rep. Vic Snyer (D) is retiring) and is an R+5 district, according to the Cook Political Report. Tim Griffin has $315K cash on hand, nearly three times as much as anyone else in the race. In NY-29, Corning Mayor Tom Reed has $344K cash on hand while Dem Afghanistan War veteran Matthew Zeller has just $85K. That is also an R+5 district.

Somewhat similarly, in OH-13 car dealer Tom Ganley is pouring his own money - and plenty of it - into his race against Rep. Betty Sutton (D). In FL-22, Allen West has been raising money rapidly and now has $2.1M in the bank. He is facing off against Rep. Ron Klein (D), who also has a hefty, $2.9M, warchest.

American Crossroads, the conservative third party group that is looking to play a big role in the midterms, is up with ads in the Colorado and Ohio Senate races. The group is spending nearly $1M in airing the ads in what is one of the group's first - of many - salvos this cycle.

The ads also reveal something about the group's strategy for taking on Democrats this year. The Colorado ad, which is the group's first in that state, focuses exclusively on sitting Sen. Michael Bennet (D). Specifically, it blasts Bennet for government "spending sprees." The ad is funded by American Crossroads GPS - the group's 501(c)4 arm.

The group is spending $425K on that ad, airing it on network TV in Denver and Colorado Springs.

It appears the NRCC has Michael Lewis' "Moneyball" in its library. The book - a must-read for sports fans - discusses how the Oakland Athletics and general manager Billy Beane skillfully utilized limited funds to yield maximum results from their team.

The NRCC is using a similar strategy for their television ad buys this year. Politico reported this morning that the committee is planning $22 million in ad buys running up to the election. The 40 41 districts illustrate that the GOP is on offense; 39 40 of the seats are currently held by Democrats. 39, it should be noted, also represents the number of seats the GOP needs to win to take back the House this year.

Looking more deeply into those districts, it's clear that the NRCC is looking to stretch their dollars. That's important to them because they are at a significant cash on hand disadvantage to their Democratic counterparts. The DCCC has $34M in their bank account - double the NRCC's $17M.

Several of the top targets for the NRCC lie in inexpensive media markets and are districts that voted for John McCain in 2008. A few examples: Reps. Bobby Bright (D) in AL-2, Allen Boyd in FL-2, Harry Teague in NM-2, Travis Childers in MS-1 and Jim Marshall in GA-8. The Dakotas - Reps. Earl Pomeroy in ND-AL and Stephanie Herseth Sandlin in SD-AL - are also cheap places to air ads and both are on the NRCC's list.

In Ben Chandler's (D) in KY-6, one senior GOP operative noted that they can stay up on the air there for $75,000 per week - a relatively low figure. "[GOP nominee] Andy Barr can go up for six weeks on TV without a sweat," said the operative.

Other open seats are in inexpensive media markets. These include the seat of retiring Reps. Bart Stupak (D) in MI-1 and Dennis Moore's in KS-3. Alan Mollohan's WV-1, which is open since Mollohan lost the Democratic primary, is also a target in a cheap media market.

This strategy could prove particularly effective because the Dems have to play in more expensive markets to defend incumbents. The DCCC has reserved $49M worth of air time for 60 districts, 54 of which are currently held by Dems. To defend PA-7, the seat vacated by Rep. Joe Sestak, Dems have to venture into the Philadelphia media market. To hold on to IL-10, Rep. Mark Kirk's (R) former seat, they have to buy in the Chicago market. Similarly, Rep. Mary Jo Kilroy's OH-15 lies in the Columbus market.

Having more money - as the Dems do - is always better than having less. But if you look at how much the NRCC is planning to spend per race compared to the DCCC, they are approaching parity. Divide the DCCC's $49M by the 60 CDs in which it plans to air ads and you get $816K per district. Divide the NRCC's planned $22M by the 40 CDs, and you get $550K per district. That, when the cost of the media markets is taken into account, could help level the playing field.

See Also: The Hotline's breakdown of where the NRCC is planning to spend money compared to where the DCCC is spending money.

UPDATE: Hotline On Call has learned that the NRCC is also planning ads in NJ-3 for GOPer Jon Runyan. 

Good Tuesday morning and welcome to the return of Hotline On Call's starting line up. We are relaunching the feature - your daily cheat sheet for who and what to keep an eye on today.

Without further ado, here we go.

Senate Democrats: We wrote yesterday that Democrats were showing an uncanny amount of message discipline in not commenting on Pres. Obama's remarks defending the right to build a mosque near ground zero. Democrats were hoping that their silence would help the story go away. That strategy was blown out of the water, though, when Sen. Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D-NV) broke with Obama on the issue late in the day. Reid's comments ensure that every Senate Democrat (and probably House Democrat) will be asked about the issue. The proverbial political legs on this story appear to be growing, much to Democrats' chagrin.

Palin's "Grizzlies:" It's Tuesday, so it's primary day. Voters in Wyoming and Washington will decide their general election fields and, as usual, former AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) has some dogs - er, bears - in the fights. Palin has had a mixed record with endorsements so far and the one to keep an eye on tonight is Rita Meyer in the Wyoming GOP gubernatorial primary. Meyer is locked in a tough fight for the GOP nomination with ex-U.S. Atty. Matt Mead. If Meyer does win the primary, it's a good sign for the GOP and the "year of the woman" meme; Republicans have struggled with women voters outside the Sun Belt.

Palin has also backed candidates in Washington, including farmer and ex-Redskins tight end Clint Didier (R) in the Senate race. Didier is not expected to make the run-off in that race.

Washington's 3rd CD: The race to replace retiring Rep. Brian Baird (D) in the 3rd District is the most competitive. Ex-state Rep. Denny Heck is the favorite on the Democratic side and state Rep. Jaime Herrera and ex-Bush admin. official David Castillo are locked in a close race on the Republican side. Since Washington has a top-two system (more on that in a bit), Heck is virtually assured to move on as Herrera and Castillo will battle for Republican votes. Herrera has the cash on hand advantage, but Castillo has been more compelling on the stump. More on the race here.

(Side note: For all you political nerds out there like, ahem, this Hotline On Call editor, it will also be fun to watch how Washington's top-two primary system works out. Washington is typically very late in counting elections, but Hotline On Call will be watching to see how smoothly the process goes this year. It is especially worth keeping an eye on since California passed Prop. 14 earlier in June which would move California to a similar system).

Patty Murray: Murray quickly went from being one of the safest Democratic senators this cycle to being locked in the fight of her life against two-time Republican gubernatorial candidate Dino Rossi. Rossi and Murray will undoubtedly move on two the general election but everyone will be watching Murray's percentage of the vote. A very high number - higher than 50% - will dispel the notion that she's vulnerable. A very low number - lower than 40% - and the race becomes a prime pick up opportunity for Republicans.More on that race here. 

What else are you watching today? The comments section awaits below.

Pres. Obama launches his first major campaign swing today, filling Dem coffers with the only advantage the party has left -- campaign cash.

-- The Dems who will stand with Obama on stage this week face the uncomfortable knowledge that those photos will show up in GOP campaign spots. But the advantage of having another million in campaign funds could outweigh the risk. Money isn't everything in politics, but it can play a determinative role when one candidate is able to swamp another with late TV time.

-- Still, some Dems are rushing to distance themselves from the WH. Whether it's FL SEN's Jeff Greene and FL GOV's Alex Sink disagreeing with Obama over his mosque position, or any of the House Dems who opposed some combination of cap and trade, health care or financial regulatory reform, any distance is going to attract media attention like chum attracts sharks.

Obama's poll numbers are a clear negative for Dems, and any candidate being forced to explain distance will only serve as a reminder of the "D" after their name. But the POTUS still brings advantages, both in money raised and the ability to fire up a base that's still not ready to go. How individual Dems balance those plusses and minuses will determine who stays and who goes.

With one big exception, the general election fields in WA House contests are basically set. But the machinations of the state's relatively new primary system give tomorrow's election added importance.

The state's all-party, top-two primary system means, theoretically, that two candidates from the same party could match up this fall. But that's not likely to happen in the state's three contested seats.

The race to replace Rep. Brian Baird (D-WA 03) will be the only contest tomorrow that will be in doubt. Ex-state Rep. Denny Heck (D), state Rep. Jaime Herrera (R) and ex-Bush admin. official David Castillo (R) will fight for two spots on the Nov. ballot. But because GOP votes will be split, Heck is virtually assured of a spot. The real fight will be for second.

Of the two, Herrera has raised the most cash, but hasn't exactly overwhelmed anyone with her fundraising prowess. In fact, Heck has brought in a total of $1M (including $350K out of his own pocket), while Herrera ($410K) and Castillo ($257K) have combined for much less than that. But Herrera's raised enough to air cable TV ads, a luxury Castillo has not been able to afford. She's also impressed DC GOPers enough to work her way into the NRCC's "Young Guns" program.

Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid (D-NV), who is currently locked in a tight fight for reelection, broke ranks with Pres. Obama on Monday over whether a mosque should be built near Ground Zero.

"The First Amendment protects freedom of religion," Reid spokesman Jim Manley said in a statement. "Senator Reid respects that, but thinks that the mosque should be built someplace else."

The statement then tries to shift attention from the Mosque to legislation that would provide additional aid to 9/11 first responders. "If the Republicans are being sincere," Manley said. "They would help us pass this long overdue bill to help the first responders whose health and livelihoods have been devastated because of their bravery on 9/11, rather than continuing to block this much-needed legislation."

Reid's statement comes after his Republican challenger, Sharron Angle, called for him to take a stand on the issue. The significance of the statement is, at least, two-fold. The first is the obvious: The Senate Majority Leader breaking with the president.

Secondly, Democrats had been remarkably disciplined in keeping silent on this issue. Until now. By speaking out and disagreeing with the president, Reid has virtually guaranteed that every Democratic senator will be asked about the mosque. That also guarantees that this story isn't going anywhere.

Senate Dems plan to bring up a campaign finance measure once again, according to the bill's supporters who hope to win cloture by wooing key GOP senators.

The DISCLOSE Act, which could not clear Senate hurdles when it came up just before the Aug. recess, will head back to the floor for a vote when the Senate returns next month, according to spokespeople for Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid and Sen. Chuck Schumer (D-NY), the bill's lead sponsor.

The measure would implement strict disclosure laws on campaign ads, require corporate leaders to appear in ads much like candidates and severely restrict foreign-owned companies and those that do business with the government. Advocates cast it as a positive response to the Supreme Court's Citizens United v. FEC ruling, while opponents say the bill would freeze corporate speech.

Senate Dems and their reform-advocate allies are targeting Sens. Scott Brown (R-MA), Olympia Snowe (R-ME) and Susan Collins (R-ME), all of whom voted against cloture last month. The 3 GOPers said the bill was rushed in an attempt to influence the '10 midterms on Dems' behalf.

Now, though, reform advocates believe they have removed that most significant objection all 3 GOPers had. If the measure is passed in late Sept. or early Oct., it would not go into effect until after the midterms.

Here's what we know: Pres. Obama's comments regarding the construction of a mosque near Ground Zero have sucked up all the oxygen in the political world for the time being. Here's what we don't know, and what everyone is wondering: Do the comments have the political legs to last through the midterms?

It's clear that Democrats are worried about that happening and Republicans are doing their best to make that a reality. On Sunday, NRSC Chairman John Cornyn (R-TX) indicated that Republicans would seek to make it an issue in the midterms. Several Republican House candidates released statements condemning Obama's remarks and FL Gov. candidate Rick Scott (R) is already up with an ad.

The Democratic strategy is to try to wait this out. Aides said Democrats won't comment unless asked and there is no doubt Democrats would rather not be talking about this issue at this stage in the cycle. At the time of this writing, no House candidate outside New York had released a statement on the president's remarks. "It definitely puts Democrats in conservative or moderate districts in a difficult position," said another Democratic strategist.

This, of course, plays right into the Republican strategy. "The silence from the Democrats on this issue has been deafening," said NRCC communications director Ken Spain.

Republicans have good reason to push the issue, said Suffolk University pollster David Paleologos. "Who gets moved by these comments? The answer is independents." Paleologos said. "Independents are driven by issues like this."

But can Republicans get traction if the Democrats are careful not to engage? A Democratic leadership aide revealed that the Dems do, in fact, have a counter strategy; they just haven't deployed it yet. Republicans, the aide said, are trying to manufacture a national issue at the expense of focusing on local issues - like jobs. "It provides more evidence that they [Republican candidates] are not independent," the aide said. "That they are beholden to D.C. puppet masters."

LA Gov. Bobby Jindal's (R) proclamation that he is definitely running for reelection in 2011 is a good sign that he will not run for president. But let's not take him out of the 2012 discussion altogether.

A survey of Republican strategists found near agreement that Jindal would bring a lot to the Republican ticket as a VP nominee. Here's a breakdown of the Republican's positives and negatives.

Pros
The best way to describe Jindal's positives is to apply them to some of the current crop of potential GOP nominees. Jindal would bring policy gravitas to a former AK Gov. Sarah Palin (R) candidacy. He is widely considered strong on policy, almost to the point of being too wonky (more on that in a bit). If former MA Gov. Mitt Romney gets the GOP nod, Jindal would add diversity to the ticket. GOP strategists agree that avoiding an all white male ticket will be a priority for Republicans in 2012. Jindal, who has degrees from Brown and Oxford, would also add polish if former AR Gov. Mike Huckabee is on the top of the ticket.

The oil spill has also allowed Jindal to reinvigorate his image nationally. He is ridiculously popular in Louisiana, with an approval rating approaching 70%. "He has defined himself as an action oriented governor," said John Maginnis, the editor of LaPolitics. "The disasters have defined him."

"The oil spill allowed him to reintroduce himself," added Republican strategist Todd Domke.

Jindal brings conservative credentials but isn't strident on social issues. Most strategists surveyed said his brand of conservatism is well suited to appeal to the GOP base but remain palatable to moderates.

Finally, if Jindal wins reelection next year he'll be able to shed the baby-faced newcomer persona that could have otherwise plagued him.

Cons
The biggest question among GOP strategists is whether Jindal is ready for the big time. Jindal's lackluster at best, cringe inducing at worst response to Pres. Obama's 2009 State of the Union is still fresh on GOP insiders' minds. "Let's just say it was less than stellar," quipped one strategist. There is also concern that Jindal's policy chops make him sound more like a professor than a politician.

If Palin is not the nominee, the GOP will likely be looking for a woman to round out the ticket, some say.

There is also the concern that Jindal is not from a swing state. Louisiana has been reliably in the GOP column the past few cycles. The GOP nominee may look for a running mate from the Midwest, where the GOP is trying to make inroads. 

Fully half of Americans disapprove of job Pres. Obama is doing for the first time in the latest Gallup daily tracking poll, according to new data released today.

In interviews conducted Fri.-Sun., just 42% of Americans approved of the job Obama was doing, while 50% disapproved. The approval rating is equal to Obama's lowest (tying the figure one day earlier in the rolling sample), and the 50% disapproval rating is the highest of his presidency.

Recent WH occupants have followed different tracks in the Gallup poll. According to Gallup's indispensible Presidential Job Approval Center, it wasn't until Aug. '05 until George W. Bush's approval ratings sank that low. But Bill Clinton's approval rating sank as low as 37% within six months of taking office.

The best comparison for Obama's approval ratings might be with Ronald Reagan, who first sank to 42% in July '82, which is roughly the same point in his presidency.

Last week, a Gallup analysis showed that, since '46, when the POTUS is above 50% approval, their party loses an average of 14 seats in the House in the midterm elections, compared with an average loss of 36 seats when the POTUS' job approval is below 50%.

The latest Gallup tracking results were collected from interviews conducted Aug. 13-15. Gallup surveyed 1,593 adults, for a margin of error of +/- 2.5%.

The pols Dems and GOPers use to villify their opponents by association are well known. For Dems, George W. Bush is the go-to. For Republicans, it's Nancy Pelosi and, increasingly, Harry Reid.

The latest ad from Wisconsin GOP gubernatorial candidate Scott Walker suggests that President Obama is approaching that territory. The president visits the Badger State on Monday to tour ZBB Energy Corp. and campaign for Milwaukee Mayor and Dem gubernatorial candidate Tom Barrett.

Walker, who is locked in a GOP primary with former Rep. Mark Neumann, is up with a one-minute ad that takes Obama to task by responding to snippets of his speeches.

Obama: Make no mistake...
Walker: We're trying not to. But you, President Obama and Milwaukee Mayor Tom Barrett are trying to spend $810 million to build a high speed train line between Milwaukee and Madison."
Obama: Let me be clear...
Walker: No, let me be clear. I'd rather take that money and fix Wisconsin's crumbling roads and bridges.

The ad ends with Obama saying his campaign motto, "Yes we can," and Walker delivering a skeptical shrug.

What's interesting is Walker is using Obama in an anti-Pelosi-eque manner in a state that the president won by 14% last year. We've seen Obama's poll numbers drop dramatically in other states - most notably Missouri where his approval rating recently plummeted to 34%. A July University of Wisconsin poll showed Obama's approval rating hovering right at 49%.

Check out the ad below. Are there other ads out there that are more anti-Obama? The comments section awaits below.

When Gov. Dave Freudenthal (D) announced in March that he would not challenge the state's term limit law and pursue a third term in office, the prospect of GOPers taking over the seat instantly became an overwhelmingly likely proposition. Freudenthal's own popularity allowed him to appeal to voters in both parties. But in a state where registered GOP voters outnumber Dems by more than 2-1 and Dems don't have their most popular pol running, GOPers remain poised to pick up the governorship.

Thus, the spotlight will be on the GOP primary Tuesday, where four contenders -- ex-U.S. Atty Matt Mead (R), Aud. Rita Meyer (R), rancher/ex-WY Dept. of Ag. dir./ex-state House Maj. Leader Ron Micheli (R) and state House Speaker Colin Simpson (R) -- headline the GOP field.

Meyer and Mead appear to be the front-runners in what appears to be a tight race overall that remains up for grabs. A poll conducted July 26-28 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research showed Meyer leading Mead 27%-24%, with Simpson at 17% and Micheli at 12%. An An OnMessage Inc. (R) poll conducted July 25-26 for the Mead campaign showed Mead leading Meyer 26%-22%, with Micheli at at 18% and Simpson at 16%.

Mead has built the biggest war chest, drawing mostly from personal money. Meyer is backed by Sarah Palin (R) while Simpson was endorsed by George H.W. Bush. Micheli is working to appeal to Tea Party voters. All four candidates have been advertising on TV.

Over on the Dem side, state Dem chair Leslie Petersen (D), who jumped into the race at the last minute, is the front-runner in a race that also features WY DoT pilot Pete Gosar (D).

Polls will be open from 7 AM to 7 PM on Tuesday.

What we at The Hotline learned about the races we're covering this week:

-- Wealthy businessmen Rick Scott (R) and Jeff Greene (D) had the FL GOV and FL SEN nominations sewn up last month. This month, tough stories about Scott's past at Columbia/HCA and Greene's involvement in the mortgage market trading derivatives has them both on their heels. Greene's stumbles in particular are great news for Rep. Kendrick Meek (D) -- and bad news for Dems, who still think Gov. Charlie Crist (I) will caucus on their side.

-- If they're really such good friends, by the way, Mike Tyson isn't doing Greene a lot of favors by relating stories of strippers and drug-fueled jaunts through Europe.

-- Senate Maj. Leader Harry Reid's clout argument isn't going to be as successful as he might like. Fully 51% of NV voters say he's not too influential to replace. Arguing that you're indispensible is a classic fall-back for politicians at the highest levels (Mitch McConnell did it in '08; Sen. Blanche Lincoln is doing it this year). But it's almost never the deciding factor.

-- Fancy Farm is sacred in KY. Last year AG Jack Conway (D) had to apologize for -- and has since been haunted by -- his use of (mild) profanity during his speech. And this year ophthalmologist Rand Paul (R) had to apologize for telling Fox the picnic is a rowdy event where pols fear having beers thrown at them (It's a dry event). While the rest of the country flipped out over Aqua Buddha, at least some people in KY were more perturbed by Paul's Fancy Farm diss.

Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) is launching his first TV ad of the general election today, a 60-second spot in which Haslam drops the "conservative" label and opts for the I'm-for-everyone approach.

The ad "For All of Tennessee", produced by Strategic Media Perception, is particularly noteworthy for name-dropping Dem statewide elected officials in a positive light, including the father of Haslam's general election opponent Mike McWherter (D). "Good people. Great leaders. Phil Bredesen, Ned McWherter, Lamar Alexander, Bob Corker. People who take our natural good and give it a shine," the ad's announcer says. He does not mention Haslam's party affiliation or ideology.

To date, Haslam is the only candidate in the TN-GOV race that has run minute-long commercials, and this one is significantly different from the last spot he launched in the GOP primary campaign. Haslam's "Enough is Enough" ad featured the mayor looking straight into the camera for the full duration without any background music or sound as he proceeded to defend himself from accusations by Rep. Zach Wamp (R-03) and then launched his own blistering critique of the congressman's record, calling him out by name.

Haslam does not even speak in his new ad. In fact, he doesn't even appear until the 25 second mark. With bouncy, light bluegrass music playing in the background, the announcer begins the ad by playing up Tennessee's nature and human resources, including its land, music and politicians. The male speaker eventually explains how Haslam is "another good man from Tennessee" who is running "not for any part of Tennessee, but for the good of all of Tennessee."

Until Friday night, the controversy over a proposed mosque near the site of the World Trade Center in NYC was a phenomenon of cable news networks, an obsession in the narrow I-95 corridor. Then, Pres. Obama weighed in.

-- Obama's support for allowing the mosque's construction might have been a footnote, albeit an important one, to a local story. But House Min. Leader John Boehner signaled GOPers would press the issue in a Saturday statement in which he called both the mosque itself and Obama's reaction "deeply troubling." If Boehner's saying it, most House GOPers will follow suit.

-- Associating Obama with the mosque is less geared toward influencing the midterm elections than it is about undermining Obama's hopes in '12. GOPers' goals in '08 were partly about making Obama seem like the "other," and criticism during his first term has focused on his efforts at building international cooperation. In a time of economic angst, voters tend to focus inward, and appealing to the international community leaves Obama open to GOP attacks, fair or unfair.

-- That's not to say the mosque won't play in at least some races this year. FL Gov. Charlie Crist (I) said he backed Obama's position, while investor Jeff Greene (D) and ex-FL House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) disagreed strenuously. That will play a role in a state in which older voters and Jewish voters command a disproportionately large segment of the electorate. And expect Dem candidates across the country to be forced to choose between their president and the GOP's position.

Obama and Boehner don't often work together. But this weekend, the 2 combined to make sure the so-called Ground Zero Mosque leaps from the cable news triumvirate to the editorial pages of every local paper. While Obama's comments drew near-universal praise from his base the same week his press secretary blasted the "professional left," that's not something an endangered Dem congressman in the middle of the country wants to read when he or she picks up the Sunday paper.

Rep. Kendrick Meek (D-FL) has turned around his primary campaign against developer Jeff Greene, and that's bad news for Gov. Charlie Crist's (I) chances in the general election, according to a new poll released late today.

The poll, conducted Aug. 9-11 by Mason-Dixon Polling & Research and released to their media clients this evening, shows Meek leading Greene, 40%-26%, with 6% choosing other candidates and 28% undecided. Last week, a Mason-Dixon poll showed Meek clinging to a 33%-29% lead over Greene, after public polls in July showed Greene surging to a lead.

Meek's lead over Greene comes as Meek has intensified his TV ad campaign, running spots alleging that Greene profited off "suffering" by betting against so-called risky mortgages in the lead-up to the recent financial crisis. Greene has been the subject of a number of less-than-desirable media profiles in recent weeks, focusing on real estate investments that netted him millions of dollars.

Meek's rise is carrying over into the general election, and his increase in support is coming at Crist's expense. The new Mason-Dixon poll gives ex-state House Speaker Marco Rubio (R) a 38%-33% lead over Crist, with Meek at 18%.

If Greene is the nominee, Crist would maintain a narrow advantage over Rubio, 39%-38%, with Greene at 12%.

Prominent GOP officials have asked RGA executive director Nick Ayers to run for RNC chairman, according to sources on the national committee, as the underground campaign to replace current chair Michael Steele slowly ramps up.

Ayers has shot down those overtures, says a source familiar with his thinking, insisting instead he must stay focused on the midterm elections, when GOPers are expected to pick up governorships across the country. As the top staffer responsible for electing GOP governors, Ayers stands to gain credibility for wins in a favorable climate.

And under his leadership, the committee has broken fundraising records. The RGA reported raising $28M in the first 6 months of the year, and as of July 1, it had more than $40M in the bank. That stands in stark contrast to the RNC, which has suffered financial troubles throughout Steele's tenure. Ayers has also instituted an annual internal audit, aimed at showing donors how their money is spent.

The RGA is allowed to raise unlimited funds, while the RNC has stricter limits and cannot raise corporate cash.

Ayers is only 27 years old, far younger than even the youngest state GOP chairman. But he has quickly emerged as a prominent player on the DC scene, trusted by donors who see campaign committees as a good investment. He is close to MS Gov. Haley Barbour, the former RNC chair who still wields influence on the committee and who chairs the RGA.

And Ayers has traveled the country in support of his candidates, making contacts with state chairmen along the way. Even allies of current chairman Steele have good things to say about the work Ayers has done for their states.

But, Ayers insisted in an email, he is not contemplating a run.

"I am absolutely not considering it. It is DC babble. Anyone who really knows me, and who's actually talked to me, knows that we are laser focused on 2010. Suggestions to the contrary are nuts," Ayers wrote.

Ayers told staff members early this year not to focus on anything past the midterm elections, said one staff member. If the RGA does its job this year, Ayers said at the staff meeting, opportunities beyond '10 will emerge on their own.

If he does decide to make a bid after Election Day, Ayers would face serious hurdles beyond his relative youth. RNC members are leery about selecting a chairman who is not a member of the committee; the chief complaints among members when ex-Sen. Norm Coleman (R-MN) floated his name as a possible candidate last month were that he was focusing on something other than the midterm elections, and that he had not been one of the committee's 168 members.

Even Steele has been reluctant to publicize his future plans, lest he seem anything other than totally focused on the midterms. Steele has said he will run for another term, but at an RNC meeting last week in Kansas City he declined to elaborate even when pressed by reporters.

An RNC spokesman declined to comment. The chairman's election will be held this Jan. at the committee's next full meeting.

Here's what we at The Hotline learned this week:

-- Dems are falling into the same trap the GOP hit back in '06, when Rep. Duke Cunningham (R-CA) went to jail, Rep. Tom DeLay (R-TX) mugged for the camera and Rep. Mark Foley paged a page a few times too often. Flash forward to this year, when in a single week Reps. Charlie Rangel (D-NY) and Maxine Waters (D-CA) publicly defended themselves from ethics charges and Rep. Nick Rahall (D-WV) was accused of using official stationary to plead for leniency for his son. Speaker Nancy Pelosi pledged to "drain the swamp" when Dems took over in '07. Now, that line is used in parody by GOP flaks.

-- WH press sec. Robert Gibbs talks for a living, and he rarely says a word he doesn't mean to say. That's why his shots at the "professional left" this week were so revealing; it may indeed reveal frustration, but the sentiment also helps Pres. Obama move to the middle -- a move Bill Clinton waited until after his '94 drubbing to make.

-- GOPers used to scoff at the idea that this year will be a referendum election. But with a new partisan poll showing that the GOP wins issue matchups has them wondering whether their party will score big wins this year either way. The American Crossroads poll showed a GOP candidate leading a Dem by a huge 47%-25% margin among independent voters. Dems will ignore this poll at their own peril.

In his bid to bury ex-Rep. J.D. Hayworth (R) in the GOP primary, Sen. John McCain (R) continued spending vigorously during the latest reporting period, dishing out over $3.5M, according to a review of his pre-primary financial report.

During the period covering 7/1-8/4, McCain spent $3.5M and raised $3.2M ($2.9M of which was transferred from one of his '08WH accounts, which still has a significant cash reserve). He had $1.5M+ CoH at the end of the period. McCain has not been bashful about spending on advertising this cycle, unleashing a slew of negative ads blasting Hayworth as he has built a comfortable lead down the stretch.

Not going away quietly, Hayworth spent $1.09M during the same period, raising $416K+ and leaving himself with $240K+ CoH. The former rep. has recently tried to launch a counteroffensive, going up with a statewide ad buy of his own beginning in July.

The primary will take place on 8/24.

During a cycle in which incumbents are fighting for their political lives across the country, few races have captured the attention of national Dems and GOPers like WA SEN. Sen. Patty Murray (D) and ex-state Sen. Dino Rossi (R) are on a collision course for a general election matchup, following 8/17's "top-2" primary.

After much deliberation, Rossi, who was recruited by national GOPers to challenge Murray, joined the race in May, instantly becoming the only credible challenge to Murray's hopes of another term in the Senate. Rossi, who ran for for gov. twice, including in an extremely tight '04 contest, immediately brought high name ID and an ability to fundraise to the contest upon making his bid official.

So far, Rossi has put up impressive fundraising numbers. But Murray brings to the race a considerable warchest unmatched by any other candidate. She recently made a significant reserve ad buy for the fall.

If the ads that have been run so far are any indication, the fall contest will likely feature an expensive and nasty battle on the airwaves. Murray has already been hit by American Action Network with a negative spot, while she has already gone negative against Rossi in a TV ad of her own. Rossi immediately followed Murray's spot with his own positive ad.

The DSCC is up with their first independent expenditure of the cycle, bashing ex-Rep. Pat Toomey (R-PA) for his ties to Wall Street.

"Before he became a politician, Pat Toomey was a Wall Street wheeler-dealer," the narrator says. Dems charge "Mr. Wall Street" with promoting derivatives, and with weakening oversight on financial institutions.

The DSCC is spending $404K to air the ad on statewide broadcast and another $48K for cable spots, according to a source who follows political ad spending. That equals 300 gross ratings points in Philadelphia, 400 in Pittsburgh, 300 in Harrisburg, 600 in Wilkes Barre and 500 points each in Johnstown and Erie.

Dems are becoming concerned that several ads attacking Rep. Joe Sestak (D) are beginning to have an impact. Sestak is still refilling his coffers after an expensive primary in which he defeated Sen. Arlen Specter (D), but he's being outspent on TV by Toomey, the Chamber of Commerce and other right-leaning groups.

Pres. Obama trails a generic GOPer in a WH '12 re-election bid, according to a new CNN/Opinion Research Corp. poll released today. Among registered voters, fully half, 50%, said they were more likely to vote for a generic GOPer, while just 45% said they were more likely to vote for Obama.

While the numbers are striking, the generic ballot at this stage doesn't always mean the incumbent pres. is destined for just one term. Prior to his re-election bid, George W. Bush never trailed a generic Dem, according to trends from what was then the CNN/USA Today/Gallup poll. The closest a generic Dem came to Bush was 47-43% in Sept. '03.

Bill Clinton, on the other hand, trailed a generic opponent from the GOP by wide margins. In Dec. '94, a month after his party was drubbed at the polls in the midterm elections, the generic GOP candidate led Clinton, 53-39%.

CNN also tested the GOP contenders against one another in a national primary. Ex-MA Gov. Mitt Romney (21%) edged ahead of ex-AK Gov. Sarah Palin (18%), with ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich (15%), ex-AR Gov. Mike Huckabee (14%) and Rep. Ron Paul (10%) trailing behind.

The CNN surveyed was conducted Aug. 6-10 by Opinion Research Corp, surveying 935 registered voters, for a margin of error of +/- 3.2%. The GOP primary question was asked among 494 GOPers and GOP-leaning indies, for a margin of error of +/- 4.4%.

Sen. David Vitter (R-LA) is the one Republican senator potentially vulnerable this November, not because of his voting record but because of the well-publicized prostitution scandal that Louisiana voters are all too familiar with.

His Democratic challenger, Rep. Charlie Melancon (D-LA), has only made subtle references to the senator's ethical record on the campaign trail up until now, but he went full bore today with an ad discussing Vitter's "serious sin" which features footage from the infamous press conference when he apologized alongside his wife for his extramarital affair.

The ad, which is airing on broadcast and cable television throughout the state, coincides with a new website from the Melancon campaign titled "SeriousSins.com" alleging that Vitter has a pattern of mistreating women.

"We know how David Vitter handled his serious sin. And when Vitter's staffer violently abused his girlfriend, Vitter let him keep his job - on women's issues," a female narrator says in the spot.

Running in a solidly Republican state like Louisiana with a strong GOP environment at his back, Vitter still is in good shape for re-election. A Southern Media & Opinion Research poll released this week showed him with an 18-point lead, 46 to 28 percent, over Melancon.

But Democrats and Republican strategists alike believe this race will tighten as the senator is hit with more attack ads like these, and that Vitter isn't out of the woods yet.

Dems will recognize the 75th anniversary of Social Security this weekend by accusing the GOP of trying to take it away.

"Again in this election Republicans are proposing radical things -- everything from privatizing Social Security (and letting it ride on a stock market in which millions lost their shirts over the past several years) to drastic benefit cuts to eliminating the program altogether," DNC communications director Brad Woodhouse said in an email.

Dems and their allies will point to comments from Rand Paul and Sharron Angle, who have dared to touch the political third rail. Organizing for America, the outgrowth of Pres. Obama's WH'08 campaign, will hold press events in each state blasting the GOP.

And the party is going to pay the most attention to Rep. Paul Ryan (R-WI), whose Roadmap to America's Future proposes changes to the program that Ryan says would keep it solvent and balance the federal budget.

Social Security hasn't been on voters' radar this year, though Ryan's proposal and the fawning press coverage it's received have given Dems an excuse to attack the GOP. But GOPers maintained the feint wouldn't work at a time when voters say they are overwhelmingly concerned about the economy.

Chief U.S. District Court Judge Vaughn R. Walker extended the stay on his 8/4 ruling overturning Prop. 8. The extension gives gay marriage opponents until 5 pm on 8/18 to appeal the decision to the 9th Circuit Court of Appeals. If the appeals court does not act by then, the stay is lifted and same-sex marriages can legally commence in CA.

CA Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (R) and CA AG/ex-Gov. Jerry Brown (D) had filed motions on 8/6 urging Walker to permit same-sex marriages to resume immediately, arguing that the state was equipped to handle the marriages.

Brown has used the Prop. 8 overturn to attempt to get some much-needed momentum in his campaign against billionaire ex-eBay CEO Meg Whitman. After the ruling, Brown took to Twitter to say the overturn was "great news for California" and asked his Facebook followers to fly a rainbow flag on their pages to show their support. Whitman, on the other hand, has been relatively quiet in her opposition to the ruling.

Courage Campaign founder and chair Rick Jacobs issued the following statement on the ruling: "Today's ruling means that in less than one week, equality under the law will be restored for millions of loving families across California. Lifting the stay is ultimately consistent with both legal precedent and the findings in this case."

"...proponents do not identify a harm to them that would result from denial of their motion to stay," Walker wrote in the order, "The evidence at trial showed, however, that Proposition 8 harms the state of California."

The 9th Circuit Court of Appeals has a majority of Dem appointees. If they uphold Walker's decision, the next step for same-sex marriage opponents is the Supreme Court.

Veering away from months of TV ads about job creation, the economy and his personal background, businessman Bill Binnie (R) is up with a new spot underscoring the need for immigrants to learn English. Binnie's move is the latest signal that conservative attacks and a primary that is fast approaching may be causing him to shift his campaign's focus.

"As a U.S. senator, I'll insist that all immigrants learn English. It's simple -- Americans should have allegiance to one flag and have one official language: English," Binnie says in the ad.

In recent weeks, Binnie has been attacked by Cornerstone Action, an independent group whose ads have called Binnie "shockingly liberal" and taken aim at him on issues such as immigration. In addition, when Sarah Palin (R) endorsed frontrunner ex-AG Kelly Ayotte (R) in July, the former VP candidate took a shot at Binnie in the process, calling him a "self-funded millionaire running with an R next to his name who likes Obamacare and cap-and-tax."

Binnie mgr. Bryan Lanza said that Binnie has been talking about the requirement to learn English for months. Lanza dismissed the attacks from outside groups. "The English spot is an extension of our economic message," said Lanza. In the ad, Binnie calls English the "language of international commerce."

The Iowa State Fair kicks off today and runs through Aug. 22, and with it comes the inevitable descent of out-of-state pols eyeing the state's first-in-the-nation WH '12 caucus. National GOP figures coming to IA in the next few weeks include ex-House Speaker Newt Gingrich, ex-PA Sen. Rick Santorum, IA Sen. Chuck Grassley and MN Gov. Tim Pawlenty.

Pawlenty in particular has become a familiar presence in the state, as he mulls a potential WH bid. It's his forth visit to IA since last fall and his second in the last two weeks.

Santorum confirmed to DailyCaller.com Wednesday that he was mulling a run in '12, saying "I'm going through the process of what someone who is seriously considering running would do... in order for when the time comes to decide, I'm in a position that I have a choice."

Gingrich, too, is back in the national spotlight, after Esquire ran a lengthy profile of him drawn partially from a long interview with his second ex-wife, Marianne Gingrich. Gingrich also confirmed Wednesday he was mulling a run during a visit to nearby WI, but deferred on a decision until later this year or early next year.

Noticeably absent from both the fair and from IA in recent months is Sarah Palin, whose last appearance in the state was part of her Going Rogue book tour in Dec. '09.

After the jump is complete schedule of GOP politicians slated to attend the fair.

Dems are worried that a new feud between the WH and their liberal base is further endangering the party's candidates during the midterms, exacerbating an already immense enthusiasm gap.

On Wednesday, WH press secretary Robert Gibbs walked back comments he made to The Hill newspaper, in which he suggested the "professional left" should be "drug tested." But Gibbs' retraction came after igniting a firestorm among left-leaning bloggers and providing fodder for cable news networks trumpeting the lefty rift.

In reality, Dems said, the rift is not as serious as it seems. But Gibbs' comments won't help excite Dem activists whose support and volunteer hours the party needs in midterm elections that loom just 12 weeks away.

"The problem is the enthusiasm gap," said ex-VT Gov. Howard Dean, in an interview with The Hotline this morning. "If you treat people like that, they're not likely to respond in a warm and fuzzy way."

"Part of it is the kind of in-your-face attitude of the White House staff, and I'm not just talking about Rahm," Dean added. "I think it's pretty universal."

If Ben Quayle's (R) controversial TV ad calling Pres. Obama the "worst president in history" was your first peek into the AZ-03 open seat race, you might not know where that ad came from.

But if you've followed any of the race to replace retiring Rep. John Shadegg (R), you may begin to understand why Quayle went so far out on a limb in his controversial TV ad.

Despite the fact the CD encompasses suburban Phoenix, none of the candidates here are running a typical suburban campaign focused on the region's flagging economy. Most are running well to the right, both on substance and style.

Because there's so little to differentiate themselves on the issues, candidates are going for the shock value (see Quayle's ad again).

He's not alone. A web ad posted by ex-state Sen. Pamela Gorman's (R) camp last month -- titled "Driving Left Nuts" -- showed the GOPer shooting various guns and touting her NRA endorsement.

"A lot of people think this is our best shot at changing Congress. Of course, that all depends on the caliber of our candidates," says the announcer. That's followed by footage of Gorman shooting an automatic weapon.

Ex-Rep. Dan Rostenkowski (D-IL), the long-time House Ways and Means Committee chairman who went to jail for his involvement in the House post office scandal, has died at his WI vacation home at the age of 82.

Rostenkowski represented his Chicago-area district from '58 to '94, when he lost in the GOP wave. He spent 15 months in federal prison and paid a $100K fine for his crime; Bill Clinton pardoned Rostenkowski during his final days in office.

For an excellent look at Rostenkowski's life and his Chicago-style politics, here's an excerpt from Richard E. Cohen's '99 book, "Rostenkowski: The Pursuit of Power and the End of the Old Politics":

From day one, Dan Rostenkowski was content to be a workhorse. He was a product of a disciplined big-city organization, voted the party line, and lacked the training or inclination for self-promotion. But his advancement in the House was not a foregone conclusion; there were choices to be made. He had to determine his friends, his legislative interests, and his path to power. As a member of the House's "Tuesday-to-Thursday Club," he also needed to connect his work in Washington to his life in Chicago, where he returned each weekend. Without much reflection, he made those decisions early; they would have a great impact on his ultimate clout. He pursued his father Joe Rostenkowski's course of proving himself worthy to his elders. In a Capitol of growing influence and reach, he quietly sought to insert himself into the center of the action--on the big issues and in the struggles for power. And he quickly struck friendships with the power brokers.

Following a narrow victory in the Dem primary by ex-Sen. Mark Dayton (D) that was not called by the AP until early this morning, state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D) has conceded the race and is offering her full support to the former senator in his bid against state Rep. Tom Emmer (R).

"I just spoke with Mark Dayton and congratulated him on winning the DFL primary," said Kelliher in a statement this afternoon. "I offered him my full support. He will make an excellent governor."

Earlier this morning, once Dayton had clinched the nod, Kelliher didn't offer an immediate concession. "We're not making any decisions," Kelliher told supporters shortly before 1 AM local time. As the morning went on and final returns were tallied, Dayton's lead expanded. With 99% of precincts reporting, Dayton led Kelliher by 6,873 votes.

Kelliher is scheduled to speak at 3 PM local time, and DFLers are slated to hold a "Unity" press conference later this afternoon. The DFL conference was originally scheduled for this morning. Meanwhile, as the AP reports, MN GOPers plan to unveil their first TV ad in the race at an afternoon news conference.

Full Kelliher statement, after the jump:

A bonus quote of the day we couldn't fit in The Hotline:

"Our place, in terms of being considered one of or the most corrupt state in terms of politics, is pretty secure. It's almost like we've kind of relegated New Jersey to second place, and Louisiana's kind of like on injured reserve or something."

-- ex-IL Gov. Jim Edgar (R), the last elected governor not to face criminal charges. Edgar spoke to the AP in Champaign, IL.

Ex-Sec/State Karen Handel (R) has conceded the GA GOV runoff to ex-Rep. Nathan Deal (R), telling supporters she will not seek a recount despite being down just a few thousand votes.

"As of this morning, we are four tenths of a percentage point behind Nathan Deal with absentee ballots and overseas military votes yet to be counted. We certainly have the option of requesting the automatic statewide recount," Handel said. "But we are not going to do that."

With all but 3 of the state's 2,898 precincts reporting, Deal led Handle by just under 2,500 votes of the nearly 580K cast.

Handel endorsed Deal's candidacy and slammed ex-Gov. Roy Barnes, the Dem nominee, as a candidate committed to taking GA to "a past that is best kept in our rearview mirror. We must marshal all of our resources to defeat him."

Deal finished just behind Handel in the first round of voting, held on July 20. He went after Handel aggressively during the brief runoff, attacking her stance on gay rights before facing one of the country's most conservative electorate.

Sen. Michael Bennet (D-CO) pulled out a hard-fought win over an established Dem contender on Tuesday night, but he didn't do it alone: Pres. Obama put more on the line for Bennet than he has for any other incumbent this year.

Now, the WH wants Dems to know it. Organizing for America, the outgrowth of Obama's WH'08 campaign, threw thousands of volunteers at Bennet's campaign, while the DSCC offered every measure of support they could.

Late Tuesday, a top OFA official emailed around a list of accomplishments on Bennet's behalf; they hosted more than 80 events since July 9, made 47K phone calls, knocked on 14K doors and helped recruit 1,500 volunteers.

Obama himself has skin in the game. He traveled to CO for fundraisers with Bennet, he joined a town hall meeting late last week, aimed at urging Dem voters once again to cast ballots for the appointed senator, and he recorded a last-minute robo-call on Bennet's behalf.

Ex-CO House Speaker Andrew Romanoff (D), who finished behind Bennet by a 54%-46% margin, had criticized the WH and the DNC for campaigning on Bennet's behalf.

Businessman Dan Maes (R) narrowly defeated ex-Rep. Scott McInnis (R) in the Colorado Republican gubernatorial primary, a result that is giving state Republicans heartburn as they prepare for the general election against Denver Mayor John Hickenlooper (D).

With all the vote in, Maes won 51 percent of the vote to McInnis' 49 percent.

Just one month ago, the smart money was on McInnis to go all the way to governor's mansion. But that all changed when the Denver Post reported that McInnis had plagiarized segments of an essay on water policy while being paid $300K. McInnis' camp went into crisis control, and the candidate floundered in the following weeks, fingering a sloppy researcher as the true culprit and vowing to soldier on despite calls for resignation.

CO GOPers are scared of Maes' unproven candidacy, his own ethical troubles, and fundraising issues. Maes, once a fringe Tea Party candidate, surged into the lead in polls as McInnis' plagiarism scandal dominated local and national media. Maes didn't help the GOPers' confidence when he revealed that he believes the U.N. is involved in a nefarious plot to take over Denver through a bike-sharing program.

CO GOP Dick Wadhams hopes to persuade Maes to drop out of the race, to be replaced with a less-tainted nominee - with Republicans floating the name of ReMAX founder Dave Lininger as the leading possibility, according to the Denver Post. There will be a lot of behind-the scenes pressure on Maes to quit the race for the good of the party, but there's little incentive for him to do so. With Maes as the nominee, Colorado GOPers fear that the steady Hickenlooper will win easily come November.

And don't count out ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo (R, now Constitution Party), who could probably be persuaded to drop his bid if Wadhams picks the right replacement candidate. But if Maes stays in, Tancredo will probably remain in the race as well, splitting the GOP electorate and handing the governor's mansion to Hickenlooper.

And even if Wadhams does land his man (or woman), Hickenlooper has been busy on the trail stumping for jobs while the GOP flails. He is well set up for the general election. But let's not pencil his name on the governor's mansion yet: the CO GOV race is proof that things can change in an instant in electoral politics.

Reps. Ed Perlmutter (D-CO) and John Salazar (D-CO) aren't exactly at the top of many target lists, but the GOP got its best candidates to challenge each in primaries tonight, and could threaten to put the seats in play.

In the Denver-area suburbs, Aurora Councilor Ryan Frazier (R) won the GOP nod with a 64-36% victory over veteran Lang Sias (R) in CO-07. He becomes the second high-profile African-American GOPer to emerge from a House contest with at least an outside shot of winning his race.

Frazier carried his home -- Arapahoe Co. -- by a big margin, but he won a sweeping victory across the CD's three counties, including the most populous of the three, Jefferson Co.

Sias was endorsed by John McCain (whom he worked for in '08), Sarah Palin and ex-Rep. Tom Tancredo (Const.), but Frazier's cash advantage and base in the CD was enough to propel him to a rather easy victory.

Frazier will face an uphill battle against Perlmutter (D). The CD was drawn as a fair-fight CD in '02, but after a GOPer held it for two terms, it has shifted heavily to Dems. Perlmutter hasn't taken less than 55% in his two contests, and Pres. Obama took a whopping 59% here in '08. Plus, Perlmutter has a strong cash advantage ($1.2M to $200K over Frazier). But if this CD goes back to its roots, and if Frazier can put a strong campaign together, then he has a chance.

Meanwhile, in the state's Western Slope, '06 nominee/state Rep. Scott Tipton (R) won a rather comfortable 56-44% victory over atty Bob McConnell (R). Tipton won the western CO counties in his sprawling state legislative base, and also took the nearby population center of Mesa Co. (Grand Junction), while McConnell was able to fight Tipton to a tie in Pueblo, while winning his home in N. CO, Routt Co. But Tipton performed solidly across the huge CD, and was able to emerge with the victory.

Tipton has the name ID and the rolodex to raise some cash, but he hasn't exactly performed strongly on that front so far. He has $167K in the bank, while Salazar has over $1.2M. In such a huge CD, it's very costly to raise name ID, and Tipton will need to pick up the fundraising pace if he's going to seriously challenge Salazar. But the CD is fertile territory for GOPers, as McCain took 50% there in '08, and George W. Bush won it with 55% in '04. Tipton's camp believes it's in play, too, and released polling from late last year showing the race a toss-up. If he can raise the cash to compete, he may put a scare into Salazar.

In a race that was closer than expected, ex-Sen. Mark Dayton (D) barely won the Dem nomination, defeating state House Speaker Margaret Anderson Kelliher (D). The AP has called the race in favor of Dayton. With 98% of precincts counted, Dayton leads Kelliher by 41-40% (5226 votes).

Dayton's victory marks a remarkable comeback for the former senator, who left the Senate in '07 after just one term, which included a period in '04 in which Dayton closed his Capitol Hill office over fear of a terrorist attack.

The Minneapolis Star-Tribune reports that Kelliher has not yet conceded the contest, telling supporters early Wednesday, "We're not making any decisions." The Star-Tribune also reports that Dayton said he would not declare victory until she conceded. Dayton: "I'm waiting for Speaker Kelliher to exercise her prerogative to wait for every vote to be counted." Dayton's lead is beyond the threshold that would trigger a recount, according to the paper.

Dayton blanketed the airwaves with TV ads throughout the primary and spent millions on his campaign. Dayton's model of using self-funding to anchor a successful primary run has been employed in other GOV races around the country this cycle. Recently, Knoxville Mayor Bill Haslam (R) and venture capitalist Rick Snyder (R) have used personal money to help propel themselves toward primary wins in TN and MI, respectively.

Despite being backed by the DFL (Dayton decided not to compete for the DFL endorsement), EMILY's List and the state's two Dem senators, Kelliher's grassroots-oriented campaign was ultimately not enough to match Dayton's resources. Dayton is just the fourth DFL GOV nominee who did not also win the party's endorsement.

Dayton will face state Rep. Tom Emmer (R) in the general election, in a race that will be marked by contrast, as two 2 candidates hail from opposite ends of the political spectrum. Emmer, who won the state GOP's endorsement earlier this year, cruised to an easy victory in the GOP primary, with no major competitors standing in his way. The AP called the race in favor of Emmer with 2% of precincts in and Emmer winning big.

While Emmer's primary was much less competitive than the expensive DFL battle, the past few months have not been free of turbulence for him. Earlier this summer, comments by the state Rep. on servers' wages caused controversy that culminated in a testy town hall meeting.

Meanwhile, Target Corp. has come under fire for donating to a group that is running ads supporting Emmer. Push-back against Target's decision to support the group stems from Emmer's opposition to same-sex marriage. In a sign of dissatisfaction over the direction his campaign has been headed, Emmer recently shook up his campaign staff.

Meanwhile, over in the Ind. Party primary, ex-PR exec. Tom Horner (IP) emerged as the winner.

Updated 11:43 pm

Appointed Sen. Michael Bennet (D) prevailed in his first-ever election, surviving a late round of attacks from challenger Andrew Romanoff (D), and will face Weld County DA Ken Buck (R), a favorite of Colorado Tea Party activists, in the general election.

Bennet's victory, aided by the White House and the Democratic Senatorial Campaign Committee, spares him from becoming the latest incumbent to fall in a primary.

With 76 percent of precincts in, Bennet leads Romanoff, 54 to 46 percent. Romanoff performed well in the state's urban enclaves of Denver and Boulder, but Bennet won nearly everywhere else.

"We're in fighting shape now, and any opponent who stands against us will have a heck of a time staring down our unified front of Coloradans," Bennet wrote in an e-mail to supporters.

The Bennet campaign spent early and often to educate Democratic voters about their candidate, and was helped along by Pres. Obama and the DSCC. Bennet may have to thank Colorado's new mail-in voting system for his victory, as the majority of ballots were cast before Romanoff really caught momentum in the final days of the campaign.

In the primary's final weeks, Romanoff labeled Bennet as an insider who as too cozy with Wall Street types - fueled by a late New York Times story alleging Bennet cost the Denver school system millions of dollars as school superintendent. Former President Clinton endorsed Romanoff early on, and made robo-calls on his behalf.

DNC Chairman Tim Kaine will be in Denver tomorrow to headline a party unity event to rally the base heading into the general election. Romanoff has said he would gladly back Bennet if he won.

On the Republican side, Buck defeated former lieutenant governor Jane Norton, the GOP establishment favorite, 52 to 48 percent. The NRSC recruited Norton and aided her campaign, but she ran into trouble this spring when she faced a bevy of outside groups (supporting Buck) that labeled her insufficiently conservative.

Norton further angered the grassroots by skipping the GOP convention in May, where Buck was the easy victor. Buck used the momentum of the convention and the money of outside conservative groups backing him to surge into a summer lead.

With nearly all votes tallied in the Georgia Republican gubernatorial runoff, Rep. Nathan Deal (R-GA) holds a razor-thin lead of less than 2,500 votes over Sec/State Karen Handel (R), and the race looks headed to a recount.

Neither campaign has declared victory or conceded. The Handel campaign told the Atlanta Journal-Constitution there are thousands of uncounted absentee ballots in her home turf of Fulton County and Gwinnett County.

The Republican nominee will face former Gov. Roy Barnes (D) in November.

According to the Atlanta Journal-Constitution, Deal told supporters tonight that he was encouraged about the results: "If I'd worked a little harder, you wouldn't have had to stay here all night. We're still waiting. We're still ahead in the numbers. We are encouraged at the totals we've seen. We hope they will hold. We look forward to seeing the conclusion of it in the very near future."

Handel, addressing her supporters, sounded just as optimistic: "What an incredible, incredible night. I came down here to say thank you. You've been following all the numbers. I think it's going to be a little bit longer. There are a lot of absentee ballots still out there to be counted. Keep our fingers crossed and be optimistic."

The primary, viewed as a proxy battle between potential leading 2012 presidential prospects. Sarah Palin lined up early behind Handel's campaign, giving it much-needed momentum , along with Mitt Romney. Mike Huckabee and Newt Gingrich endorsed Deal.

Former WWE CEO Linda McMahon (R) cruised to victory tonight to become the Republican nominee against Attorney General Richard Blumenthal (D) in the Connecticut Senate race. McMahon won the three way primary with 49% of the vote, a decent but underwhelming total given the tens of millions she spent in the primary.

The AP called the race for McMahon.

McMahon defeated former Rep. Rob Simmons (R), who was originally recruited by the NRSC to face Sen. Chris Dodd (D), and Tea Party favorite and stockbroker Peter Schiff (R). McMahon's promise to spend up to $50M on the race proved to be enticing to beleaguered Connecticut Republicans, who have struggled lately to win Congressional seats.

"Linda McMahon's nomination today as the Republican candidate for the U.S. Senate provides our party with a strong pick-up opportunity in Connecticut this November," said NRSC chairman John Cornyn (R-TX) in a statment.

In the general election, McMahon is likely to base her campaign around the revelations that Blumenthal had exaggerated his Vietnam service record. But she has also been dogged by tawdry stories from wrestling world, especially regarding steroids and questionable scenes from the WWE's past.

In a sign that the footage has taken a toll, Vince McMahon conducted a rare interview with the AP to defend the WWE, saying that not enough attention has been given to the positive changes in the league, such as stepped-up drug testing and more family-friendly fare in recent years. The night before the primary, Linda McMahon also went on ABC's "Frontline" and defended the WWE's practices.

The DSCC wasted no time portraying McMahon as a peddler of wrestling sleaze in a statement released after she won the nomination.

"Connecticut Republicans today nominated a corporate CEO of WWE, who under her watch violence was peddled to kids, steroid abuse was rampant, yet she made her millions," said DSCC chairman Robert Menendez (D-NJ).

For the fourth time in three months, Tom Graves (R) has defeated ex-state Sen. Lee Hawkins (R), 55-45% in this northwest GA CD, and has won the right to run for a full term in the fall. He's virtually assured victory in this heavily GOP CD, as no Dem has filed to run.

Just two months ago, Graves defeated Hawkins 56-44% in the special election to fill Rep. Nathan Deal's (R) seat. Hawkins' strategy in the primary runoff didn't change much from the special election runoff. He ran against the incumbent Graves by calling him a "liar" and and a "fraud," and charged that Graves was being sued for bank fraud. Graves accused Hawkins of supporting the stimulus and donating to Dems.

In the end, the attacks weren't able to do much damage; and incumbency really didn't help Graves. While he won a sweeping victory by carrying all but one of the 15 counties in the CD, he failed to significantly improve upon his special election victory.

And in the open seat race to replace retiring Rep. John Linder (R), Linder ex-CoS Rob Woodall (R) topped minister Jody Hice (R), 55-45%, and like Graves, will be the overwhelming favorite in the fall in this 60% McCain CD. Hice was backed by several Tea Party orgs, but Woodall followed up his surprise first-place finish to run away with the runoff victory.

Woodall became famous for helping Linder champion the "Fair Tax," so it's likely that may be one of his pet issues in Congress, as it was Linder's.

Just as in the state's GOP GOV runoff, Huckabee picked sides in this race; he picked the winner, Woodall.

Updated 10:54 pm

Former Stamford Mayor Dan Malloy (D) easily defeated Ned Lamont (D) in tonight's Democratic gubernatorial primary despite being dramatically outspent by the wealthy liberal businessman . Lamont spent over $7 million of his own fortune on the race throughout Connecticut, to no avail, losing every region of the state to Malloy.

With 43 percent of precincts reporting, Malloy leads Lamont, 58 to 42 percent. The AP called the race for Malloy this evening.

Malloy will be facing former Ambassador to Ireland Tom Foley (R), who parlayed his personal fortune to the nomination over lieutenant governor Michael Fedele (R). Foley led Fedele 43 to 38 percent, with 81 percent of precincts reporting.

Democrats are hopeful that this is the year they finally take back the governor's mansion; despite their voter registration edge, they have not held the governorship in two decades. Malloy starts off at a financial disadvantage against Foley, who has the ability to lend millions to his bid during the general election. But Malloy has proven tonight that he knows how to fight above his fundraising weight, and early poll match-ups show that he would have a slight lead over Foley heading into the general.

The House has passed a $26B package aimed at helping states address growing Medicaid budget deficits and avoid laying off thousands of teachers, moving the bill to Pres. Obama's desk for a signature.

The bill would spend $16B to help states close gaps in Medicaid budgets and another $10B on education aid, money intended to prevent thousands of teachers from losing their jobs. It passed the House by a 247-161 margin.

Dems praised the bill as a jobs creator, and one that's been paid for, while GOPers said the bill violates pay-go rules requiring new spending to be offset with other cuts. The Congressional Budget Office has said the bill will reduce the deficit by $1.4B over 10 years.

Only 2 GOPers -- Reps. Mike Castle (R-DE) and Anh "Joseph" Cao (R-LA) -- voted in favor of the package. Reps. Bobby Bright (D-AL), Jim Cooper (D-TN) and Gene Taylor (D-MS) were the only Dems to oppose the legislation.

We've seen some Dem candidates in recent weeks go to great lengths to avoid being seen with Pres. Obama at fundraisers and other events, but Rep. Joe Donnelly (D) took efforts to distance himself from the Dem leadership to a whole new level in a new ad out this week.