President Obama won every state that touches the Great Lakes as he marched toward the presidency, while Democrats picked up 10 Republican-held House seats in the region. But in politics, timing is everything, and now the GOP looks poised to make new gains in key races that could give Republicans a long-term toehold in a region that has trended away from them for the last decade.
The often overlooked state legislative landscape is in as much turmoil as federal races are this year. And with state legislators set to take up decennial redistricting over the next two years, Republicans have chosen exactly the right time to surf the electoral wave.
State legislatures are as susceptible to national trends as federal races, if not more so. In recent wave election cycles, the party that picked up seats in Congress also dominated legislative chambers.
When Democrats picked up 49 seats in the House in 1974, the party also won control of 22 legislative chambers Republicans had previously held. Democrats picked up 27 House seats and 11 legislative chambers in 1982. Republicans had their own landslide in 1994, winning 54 House seats and taking control in 19 chambers.
It's no surprise that legislative campaigns feel the wind at their backs -- or in their faces -- more than federal ones, strategists on both sides say. After all, legislators run their campaigns with much less cash than higher-ticket races, rendering them unable to define themselves and therefore leaving their fates dependent on voters' moods.
"There are fewer resources dedicated to these downballot races. The name I.D. is going to be lower, so they are more susceptible to the national wave," said Chris Jankowski, a GOP strategist who heads REDMAP, the party's top redistricting initiative.
This year, the wave could wash over Great Lakes states and push half a dozen chambers into the GOP column. Republicans need to pick up just three seats to wrest control of the Indiana House; they need only four to take over the lower chamber in Ohio; two seats are all it would take to win the Wisconsin Senate; and four seats are necessary to win back the Wisconsin House.
All this matters because, as both parties say, control of governor's mansions and state legislatures means control of the pen that draws district lines. Republicans are expected to do well in governor's races in Ohio, Michigan, Wisconsin, Illinois and Pennsylvania -- all seats currently held by Democrats.
"If it touches a Great Lake, it's a good state for Republicans this year," Jankowski said.
As of 2009, Democrats controlled all the levers in Illinois, Wisconsin and New York, while Republicans had at least a say in redistricting in Ohio, Michigan, Pennsylvania, Minnesota and Indiana. Realistically, Republicans could gain control of redistricting in Ohio, Pennsylvania, Wisconsin and Indiana, while building inroads in Illinois.
The redistricting crusade has proven lucrative for both parties. The Republican and Democratic Governors Associations, the Republican and Democratic National Committees and campaign arms in both chambers have used the threat of an unfair map -- unfair to their party, anyway -- to raise funds. In the House, Georgia Republican Rep. Lynn Westmoreland heads up a group of members dedicated to the redistricting fight, and the RNC has enlisted prominent Tennessee attorney John Ryder to keep tabs on the party's efforts.
If one party or another snags a last-minute advantage, it could mean the opportunity to influence dozens of seats. Republicans are in full control of states that send 98 members to Congress. Democrats have control of states that have 135 representatives. And states under split control own 161 members of Congress. (States that redistrict by commission send 34 members to Congress, while seven states have only one district.)
Before the 2012 elections, every state that touches the Great Lakes, aside from Indiana and Wisconsin, is expected to lose seats in reapportionment (Ohio will lose two). With pens in hand, or with a seat at the table, Republicans estimate they could control the fates of some 25 members of Congress.
But it's by no means a sure thing. In fact, while former RNC Chairman Ed Gillespie and former National Republican Congressional Committee Chairman Tom Reynolds this year took over a reinvigorated Republican State Leadership Committee -- of which REDMAP is a part -- Democrats have been keeping their eye on the redistricting ball for the better part of this decade.
The Democratic Legislative Campaign Committee is aiming to raise the same amount of money -- $20 million -- as Gillespie and Reynolds want to raise for their side. And while they're playing defense, Democrats start with a big advantage; the party controls 60 of the nation's 98 partisan legislative chambers (Nebraska has a unicameral, nonpartisan legislature).
"We've been working for [multiple] cycles now to work up to this kind of majority, and I think Republicans are, frankly, late to the game," said DLCC Executive Director Michael Sargeant. Sargeant has been a DLCC employee since 2001, when he began as political director; the RSLC did not emerge until 2002.
Sargeant acknowledges that Democrats face electoral challenges this year, but he says the party is still going to target some Republican-held chambers.
"We can't control the political environment. What we can control is the fact that we work very hard with our campaigns to run the best campaigns possible," he said. "We're going to surprise some people."
But Republicans say things are going their way. Population growth in the South and Mountain West means the vast majority of new seats will be in places that are more inclined, historically, to vote GOP -- even if that population growth is largely among Democratic-leaning Hispanics. Arizona, Utah, Nevada, Georgia, South Carolina and Florida are all projected to pick up seats. Texas -- fully controlled by Republicans but a top target of national Democrats, who need to win back just two seats to retake the state House -- will gain four seats.
"This is about putting pens in the hands of the lawmakers that will be deciding what the boundaries of Congress look like in the 2012 elections," Reynolds said. "We think, in the big picture, this will have something like 15 to 20 congressional seats impacted."
This micro analysis of components of the November election is commendable but does little to change the overall picture and the conviction that . . . . "The Dye Is Cast".
The November election is now known if you study the irrefutable figures and predictions of the piece “The Coming Crash of the Social-Democratic Madness”. It is conclusive because the figures are from respectable sources.
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